2023-24 Celtics
- Thread starter 128
- Start date
I don't know about anyone else but SamIAm seems like he's playing defense better than last year.An analytically inclined GM may combine Sam's defensive #s + shooting and come to the conclusion that he is a high-end 3&D WING/starter. While I love Sam and think he's better/more valuable than PP, he benefits greatly by playing with several All-NBA level defenders.
His contract makes him a valuable trade chit. Brad has his finger on the trigger and nobody outside the TOP6 should give up their rental to buy in Wellesley
Nice to see him get his shot untracked. He even made some move 3Ps.
It looks like teams haven't bothered to target him on defense, which either means they don't have their shit together or it's not worth the trouble. I'm confident that if he shoots the way he can shoot he can be playable for most of the year, his defense won't keep him off the floor (at least in the regular season).
Hunting Hauser was laughably ineffective last season.
We'd love it if he could put up similar defensive metrics with more minutes this season.
Sam was probably a big reason why Brad was comfortable letting Grant go and having him be #7 in the rotation.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/3/7/23628062/the-not-so-obvious-reason-why-sam-hauser-deserves-more-minutes-boston-celtics-joe-mazzulla
I was hoping that the Celtics squad would crush lesser opponents in the first quarter, which would lead to games where the starters don’t have to play a lot of minutes. We certainly got that against the Wizards and the Pacers. Those teams got hit with stifling defense, and incredibly efficient, potent offense, and never recovered.
As the starting unit gets more comfortable playing together, they are going to be able to do this to good teams too.
As the starting unit gets more comfortable playing together, they are going to be able to do this to good teams too.
I've been saying since last year that I don't believe we've seen the last of Kelly Olynyk in green. It just makes too much sense for both parties possibly as soon as the deadline.
Last edited:
The on/off numbers for most of the team are so different between nba.com, and cleaning the glass, which filters out garbage time. In both cases, it’s no surprise that White and Tatum’s numbers jump off the page, even with the tiny sample size.
Nba.com
White +22.5 on/off
Tatum +20.3
Next closest is Jaylen at an excellent +10.1
CTG
White +24.2
Tatum +21.8
Next closest is Pritchard at +6.
Nba.com
White +22.5 on/off
Tatum +20.3
Next closest is Jaylen at an excellent +10.1
CTG
White +24.2
Tatum +21.8
Next closest is Pritchard at +6.
Last edited:
So.....
Tatum is Bird (leading scorer at more than 25 points a game, excellent rebounder and passer, best all around player, the Alpha/Batman)
Brown is McHale (not a post guy but second leading scorer at ~22 points a game; excellent Robin to the Batman on the team)
Porzingis is Parish (center who scores 16-18 points a game, good rebounder and shot blocker; solid and steady but who could get you 30 if need be)
Holiday is DJ (13-15 points, elite defense at the guard position, can defend multiple positions)
White is Ainge (White scores a little more and plays better defense, but Ainge was solid in those areas too)
Horford is Walton (veteran C coming off the bench who gives you quality - if limited - minutes)
Pritchard is Sichting (sharpshooter backup 6'1" PG)
Hauser is Wedman (sharpshooter as a 6'7" wing/SF)
Brissett is Sly Williams (6'7" garbage man and energy guy with limited offense - too bad Sly only played in 6 games)
Obviously not an exact parallel to these two teams (the Brown/McHale comp in particular is off positionally and stylistically), but there's quite a bit of similarity actually.
Tatum is Bird (leading scorer at more than 25 points a game, excellent rebounder and passer, best all around player, the Alpha/Batman)
Brown is McHale (not a post guy but second leading scorer at ~22 points a game; excellent Robin to the Batman on the team)
Porzingis is Parish (center who scores 16-18 points a game, good rebounder and shot blocker; solid and steady but who could get you 30 if need be)
Holiday is DJ (13-15 points, elite defense at the guard position, can defend multiple positions)
White is Ainge (White scores a little more and plays better defense, but Ainge was solid in those areas too)
Horford is Walton (veteran C coming off the bench who gives you quality - if limited - minutes)
Pritchard is Sichting (sharpshooter backup 6'1" PG)
Hauser is Wedman (sharpshooter as a 6'7" wing/SF)
Brissett is Sly Williams (6'7" garbage man and energy guy with limited offense - too bad Sly only played in 6 games)
Obviously not an exact parallel to these two teams (the Brown/McHale comp in particular is off positionally and stylistically), but there's quite a bit of similarity actually.
Too early IMO to do comps but is this the best shooting starting 5 of all time? Better than GSW only because Dray is a non-shooter....
I'm too lazy to do screenshots but if one pauses the game at any random offensive possession, it's amazing how open the paint is when the starting 5 is playing compared to last year. Bigs are 20+ feet away from the basket; guys aren't cheating off anyone else - there's literally no defender in the paint. It's just an endless series of 1 on 1s and the Cs just keep taking advantage of their advantages.
It's really amazing.
Also way too early to tell because right now their numbers are ABSURD, and we know it won't stay that way. Here's their 3-point shooting.
23-24 Celtics
White: .579
Holiday: .375
Brown: .440
Tatum: .406
Porzingis: .450
16-17 Warriors
Curry: .411
Klay: .414
Durant: .375
Iguodala: .362
Green: .308
I mean that was pretty lights out, especially given the volume that Curry and Klay took. Let's see how it shakes out for Boston because we know their make rates are going down. But yeah, this team can SHOOT - especially when you add Horford, PP and Hauser off the bench.
They will have games when they shoot poorly as a team, but for a whole season they're going to put up a TON of points.
It is really scary how the cultural, BB skill and role similarities there are between these two teams. Nit picking that Wedman was a multi-time All-Star still in his prime when the Celtics acquired him these comps blow my mind!!
I looked at the 1974 draft in which Wedman was taken 6th overall (Walton was #1). Here's the crazy thing. There were THREE guys taken in the first 26 picks from.....
Cal State Long Beach
Yep.
#16 - Cliff Pondexter
#17 - Glenn McDonald (picked by Boston)
#26 - Leonard Gray
And then at #53, Roscoe Pondexter. So four picks in that draft.
So naturally that led me to wondering....just how good that Cal State Long Beach team was.
Turns out...pretty good. 24-2, 12-0 in conference, finished #10 in the final AP Poll. Head coach? Lute Olson.
Their only two losses were:
73-71 to Colorado
54-52 to #6 Marquette
So they were 6 points away from an undefeated season. Yet somehow, they weren't even in the NCAA Tournament. Crazy.
I grew up in KC and am one of the last KC Kings fans on earth. I loved Wedman so much as a kid, along with Otis Birdsong, Phil Ford and Sam Lacey.
You can’t compare to that Warriors team because Curry and Klay were such deadeye shooters at high volume. We have a lot of very good shooters but nobody at that level and the numbers will show that over time
Which top four do you like best:
How about some non-Celtic Fantastic Fours?
Who else you got?
- 2023: Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis
- 2008: Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Rondo
- 1986: Bird, McHale, Parish, Johnson
How about some non-Celtic Fantastic Fours?
- 96 Bulls: Jordan, Pippen, Kukoc, Rodman
- 87 Lakers: Kareem, Magic, Worthy, Scott
- 2017 Warriors: Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green
- 2000 Lakers: Shaq, Kobe, Glen Rice, Ron Harper
Who else you got?
To Teddy's point, let's contextualize with some volume numbers. Here are their respective 3PA / 36' numbers, for the 16-17 season for the dubs and last 3 seasons for the Cs:
23-24 Celtics, stats for 2020-21 to present, per-36':
White: 6.5
Holiday: 5.8
Brown: 7.4
Tatum: 8.5
Porzingis: 6.3
16-17 Warriors, per-36':
Curry: 10.8
Klay: 8.8
Durant: 5.4
Iguodala: 3.2
Green: 3.8 (which makes his <31% make rate kinda funny)
Totals for the starting 5s: Celtics 34.5 per 36', Warriors 32.0. So we would be expected to actually take more 3s per game than those Warriors. Huh. And also our shots are much more spread around, or at least you'd expect them to be - Tatum taking more than the others, Brown maybe a bit more, but the other guys being pretty close volume-wise.
The Warriors' volume-weighted make rate was 38.3% (on 31.2 per game total teamwide). Ours is currently 40.4% (on 41.5 attempts per game teamwide), trailing only Dallas in made 3s per game. So it's early and we haven't played everybody but we are currently better at 3-point shooting than the 2017 Warriors, and we would expect the volume to keep up, even if we'd expect the make rate to regress a bit.
Wow.
Last edited:
1983 76ers: Dr J, Moses, Toney, Bobby Jones - that's three HOFers (and two league MVPs in Erving and Moses) and the fourth (Toney) was a 20+ ppg scorer and 2x all-star before foot injuries stole his career.
He sure is. And that page has quite a quote from him:
As for his almost polite approach to the game, Jones believed that anything less would have been downright unacceptable. "If I have to play defense by holding on, that's when I quit," Jones said early in his career. "If I have to use an elbow to get position, then I’m going to have to settle for another position. And if I foul, or if the official makes a mistake, there's no use screaming about it. It won’t change things or make me happier."
Now, be careful, that's neither black bobby jones nor white bobby jones, to go back to a (very) old SoSH bit.
He could have been a megastar in his own right but chose to defer to his teammates and was content being a "glue guy" who did the little things. But if he had a bigger ego, he absolutely could have been a 20-25 point per game scorer and all-star every year. He was that good. And thankfully, the HOF voters recognized how good he really was even if the stats don't seem to show it.
So let's talk Guards on this roster. In the offseason we upgraded (I think we can all agree) Smart to Holiday. We got older by 4 years at that position, and a lot more mileage (Smart career 586 GP, Holiday 910), but the early returns are very promising on his decision-making, reduced bone-headedness, while preserving very alert and high-energy D and perhaps the best hands of any defender in the league. Holiday doesn't throw his body around and dive for stuff as much as Smart, but arguably that will help him sustain his level of play the next few years.
In doing so, however, we sent out reigning 6MOY Brogdon, leaving 3rd-guard duties to Payton Pritchard. Now, yes, we do have some big-lineup versions where one of White or Holiday is sitting, Brown is essentially the second guard, and by using Hauser and/or Horford we can minimize PP's minutes if we want to.
But more broadly, how much is the difference between PP and MB? We clearly downgraded in some measurables: Brogdon is 6'5' 230, Pritchard 6'1 195. PP can stay in front of guys but can get easily pushed around. Pritchard is a career 40% 3Pt shooter, but mostly against reserves / bench; Brogdon was a career 39% 3Pt shooter who shot the lights out for us (44.4%) in his one year here. Brogdon had injury issues but I think that was of the "bad luck" variety rather than the "signs of aging" (he's 30) or "injury-prone" categories.
Biggest difference is probably usage. On the floor for us, Brogdon had a USG% of 22.8% to Pritchard's career 18%, and that's with PP playing mostly with the deep bench and often being the top scoring threat on the floor. Brogdon was capable of creating his own shot against NBA starters, which is why his USG is up to 29.2% in the early going with Portland.
How big do we think our downgrade has been? Would "3rd Guard" be the team's top priority if we were to make an addition, or would it be to upgrade Hauser as 3rd wing or Kornet / Brissett as 3rd big?
In doing so, however, we sent out reigning 6MOY Brogdon, leaving 3rd-guard duties to Payton Pritchard. Now, yes, we do have some big-lineup versions where one of White or Holiday is sitting, Brown is essentially the second guard, and by using Hauser and/or Horford we can minimize PP's minutes if we want to.
But more broadly, how much is the difference between PP and MB? We clearly downgraded in some measurables: Brogdon is 6'5' 230, Pritchard 6'1 195. PP can stay in front of guys but can get easily pushed around. Pritchard is a career 40% 3Pt shooter, but mostly against reserves / bench; Brogdon was a career 39% 3Pt shooter who shot the lights out for us (44.4%) in his one year here. Brogdon had injury issues but I think that was of the "bad luck" variety rather than the "signs of aging" (he's 30) or "injury-prone" categories.
Biggest difference is probably usage. On the floor for us, Brogdon had a USG% of 22.8% to Pritchard's career 18%, and that's with PP playing mostly with the deep bench and often being the top scoring threat on the floor. Brogdon was capable of creating his own shot against NBA starters, which is why his USG is up to 29.2% in the early going with Portland.
How big do we think our downgrade has been? Would "3rd Guard" be the team's top priority if we were to make an addition, or would it be to upgrade Hauser as 3rd wing or Kornet / Brissett as 3rd big?
I'm not even sure how to digest what I saw last night.
The C's were obviously smoking hot from deep, but it was so much more than that. This was like watching the Dream Team vs. Venezuela in the 1992 Olympic Finals. The talent discrepancy was so large on the court that it felt like the C's could do anything they wanted at any time. I barely remember more than a few set plays on offense. They spread the floor and command so much attention that you end up with guys like Tatum/Brown being covered on the regular by guys like Nembhart and TJ McConnell and Bruce Brown, who in real life land, are all ok to pretty good basketball players, but are so overmatched by guys like that it becomes a Scal against a high school kid beat down. At any time, they could have run a set and ended up with Porzingis in the post against a guy that he has a foot on, they could have had White or Jrue drive and kick out to an open shooter. They could do anything they wanted.
Defensively, they are just everywhere. Hands up, switching, dropping, moving, covering up, closing out, it's just a symphony of guys playing with their buddies against a team they know they can crush.
As I mentioned in the game thread, I was at the 60 point beatdown last year that they put on the Kings. This was...different.
The C's were obviously smoking hot from deep, but it was so much more than that. This was like watching the Dream Team vs. Venezuela in the 1992 Olympic Finals. The talent discrepancy was so large on the court that it felt like the C's could do anything they wanted at any time. I barely remember more than a few set plays on offense. They spread the floor and command so much attention that you end up with guys like Tatum/Brown being covered on the regular by guys like Nembhart and TJ McConnell and Bruce Brown, who in real life land, are all ok to pretty good basketball players, but are so overmatched by guys like that it becomes a Scal against a high school kid beat down. At any time, they could have run a set and ended up with Porzingis in the post against a guy that he has a foot on, they could have had White or Jrue drive and kick out to an open shooter. They could do anything they wanted.
Defensively, they are just everywhere. Hands up, switching, dropping, moving, covering up, closing out, it's just a symphony of guys playing with their buddies against a team they know they can crush.
As I mentioned in the game thread, I was at the 60 point beatdown last year that they put on the Kings. This was...different.
Sorry for the tangent, but does anyone know whether a 30 For 30 or like documentary has been made about the 1981 ECF? I still think it's the greatest 7 games series that I've ever seen in any sport.
Yeah, by having so many great shooters - who were obviously shooting well too (which helps) - the floor was just wide open. And they didn't need to have a lot of assists because any of the Celtics players - even Pritchard for pete's sake - had enormous driving lanes and just took their guys on their own. And of course when guys were open from three, it was money.
Yes they are very good, but obviously they're not going to play this well on a regular basis. But it sure is fun to see when it all clicks.
I knew how good of a defender he was but I didn't realize how long his arms were. Wow.
Not somehow. Someone.
And that someone was Tark the Shark.
https://daily49er.com/sports/2020/09/25/lute-olson-and-the-championship-that-never-was/
The TS for the starters are freaking ridiculous lol.
White- 82%
Porzingis- 72%
Tatum- 67%
Holiday- 64%
Jaylen- 58%
White- 82%
Porzingis- 72%
Tatum- 67%
Holiday- 64%
Jaylen- 58%
Last edited:
Comparing years in the league between the 2023-24 Celtics as currently constructed vs the 1985-86 Celtics:
Tatum (7)/Bird (7)
Brown (8)/McHale (6)
Porzingis (9*)/Parish (10)
Holliday (15)/DJ (10)
White (7)/Ainge (5)
Horford (17**)/Walton (12***)
Pritchard (4) / Sichting (6)
Hauser (3) / Wedman (12)
2023-24 Mean: 8.75
1985-86 Mean: 8.5
The comparisons are not perfect, but interesting how close the teams are in average years of experience in the league. Calculating the average ages yields:
2023-24 Mean Age: 28.875
1985-86 Mean Age. 30.125
The 1985-86 Celtics had noone as old as Horford's 37; Wedman and Walton were 33. If we just look at the starting 5:
2023-24 mean experience and age: 9.2 / 28.4
1985-96 mean experience and age: 7.6 / 29.2
*: The years experience includes one season that Porzingis missed in its entirety due to knee injury.
**: Includes 2 injury shortened seasons with the Hawks and the infamous 28-game OKC season.
***: Walton had missed 3 full seasons and a good chunk of 2 others that are included in that 12
Tatum (7)/Bird (7)
Brown (8)/McHale (6)
Porzingis (9*)/Parish (10)
Holliday (15)/DJ (10)
White (7)/Ainge (5)
Horford (17**)/Walton (12***)
Pritchard (4) / Sichting (6)
Hauser (3) / Wedman (12)
2023-24 Mean: 8.75
1985-86 Mean: 8.5
The comparisons are not perfect, but interesting how close the teams are in average years of experience in the league. Calculating the average ages yields:
2023-24 Mean Age: 28.875
1985-86 Mean Age. 30.125
The 1985-86 Celtics had noone as old as Horford's 37; Wedman and Walton were 33. If we just look at the starting 5:
2023-24 mean experience and age: 9.2 / 28.4
1985-96 mean experience and age: 7.6 / 29.2
*: The years experience includes one season that Porzingis missed in its entirety due to knee injury.
**: Includes 2 injury shortened seasons with the Hawks and the infamous 28-game OKC season.
***: Walton had missed 3 full seasons and a good chunk of 2 others that are included in that 12
I still believe that, in context (meaning, up against teams in their era) the 1986 Celtics are the greatest team ever. The biggest reason is that in additon to their big 4 they also had Bill Walton, who was an incredibly impactful guy for them that one year (plus Ainge and Wedman) and no other team in the top tier has anything remotely close to that as depth/backup/alternative option. You can debate prime Bird vs prime Jordan vs prime Curry at the top---there is zero comparison as you get to the 4th/5th/6th best guy, it's the 1986 Celtics by a lot.
All that said, the 1983 Sixers are a sneaky close competitor for that one year Toney was healthy and Moses was there with J still prime-ish. They were spectacular that year; I wish they had to play a functioning Celtics team (rather than missing the one that imploded) so we could better compare them historically. But that is a really tough team.
It's certainly fun on TV. This team passed its first, let's call them quizzes, @NYK and vs MIA, requiring a comeback streak vs the Knicks, and a sustained 4-quarter effort vs the Heat. In the latter, we took the lead for good with 11 minutes remaining, but it was a 1 or 2 possession game until 4 minutes left, and with 1 minute left a Kevin Love 3 got it to within 3 points before we finished it off. So we passed the quizzes, but not with top marks -we looked more mortal against two tough well-coached teams. Obviously the last two games have been men-against-boys chuckle-fests. And I hope those continue, but they're not telling us much we don't already know.
We have another "quiz" coming up next Wednesday @ Philadelphia. Harden or no Harden, that team will play us tough. Orlando might be a problem at various points this year.
But here are the 16 "Test" games for the season, against the other 6 teams who are currently +1600 or better to win the championship, plus the Heat.
(BOS +400, MIL +450, DEN +500, PHX +700, LAC +1400, GSW +1500, LAL +1600... MIA +3600 lol)
Game 15, Nov 22: vs MIL
Game 24, Dec 19: @ GSW*
Game 26, Dec 23: @ LAC
Game 27, Dec 25: @ LAL
Game 36, Jan 11: @ MIL**
Game 40, Jan 19: vs DEN
Game 43, Jan 25: @ MIA
Game 44, Jan 27: vs LAC
Game 47, Feb 1: vs LAL
Game 51, Feb 11: @ MIA
Game 58, Mar 3: vs GSW
Game 60, Mar 7: @ DEN
Game 61, Mar 9: @ PHX
Game 64, Mar 14: vs PHX
Game 67, Mar 20: vs MIL
Game 77, Apr 9: @ MIL
* game is the front half of a back-to-back
** game is the back half of a back-to-back
(N.B. game numbers are out of 80, and do not include the 2 yet-to-be-scheduled games during the tournament break in early December. Likeliest opponents to be added for those, though, are the eastern-conference out-of-division teams who we only have 3 games against as of now: Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago / Miami, Charlotte, Orlando. We should expect 1 additional game against each division.)
Sorry this is so fuzzy but it is what it is. This screenshot is from the 1984 finals between Boston and LA, game 6. Look at the difference in floor spacing. A completely different sport now.
really? Long Beach State was where Tark started and the basketball program (and football program) were hit by a ton of violations. Some Long Beach supporters said that the NCAA came down so hard on Long Beach State because Wooden didn't want such a strong rival next door.
Here's the SI article from 1974 on the story, obviously very pro-NCAA: https://vault.si.com/vault/1974/06/17/the-payoff.
Athletic did an article in 2001 here: https://theathletic.com/2436895/2021/03/10/ncaa-villain-maybe-jerry-tarkanian-was-right-all-along/
And a short piece on the team here: https://lasvegassun.com/news/2009/mar/20/first-dance-was-best-tark/
This picture right here encapsulates why I was so insistent that the move that had to be made was Marcus Smart leaving this team. You'd never see this kind of spacing because teams didn't respect Smart outside. Throw TL into the mix and it would get even more clogged. There isn't a guy on that floor that you can leave alone.
Nice look from Jay King at how the C's utilized the post up last night. Just another curveball from Mazz.
It’s a new trick for the Celtics. Mazzulla believes it should help them attack switches.
“It just gives us different ways to win basketball games,” Mazzulla said. “When you’re able to get those easy baskets, I think one, it settles our guys down to where they can get an easier shot at the rim or where they can calm the run down. I think that’s another way to stop a run is getting into those situations. But we really fight to keep our spacing well, and if our spacing stays well and our guys have the space and poise to play down there, I think it’s something you do.”
https://theathletic.com/5023152/2023/11/02/celtics-win-pacers-post-play-jrue-holiday/
It’s a new trick for the Celtics. Mazzulla believes it should help them attack switches.
“It just gives us different ways to win basketball games,” Mazzulla said. “When you’re able to get those easy baskets, I think one, it settles our guys down to where they can get an easier shot at the rim or where they can calm the run down. I think that’s another way to stop a run is getting into those situations. But we really fight to keep our spacing well, and if our spacing stays well and our guys have the space and poise to play down there, I think it’s something you do.”
https://theathletic.com/5023152/2023/11/02/celtics-win-pacers-post-play-jrue-holiday/
Counterpoint: they are still figuring it out offensively, but they're winning anyway because the talent is so damn high.
I'm still seeing more "your turn, my turn" than I think that we'll see later in the year. I think that this team isn't even at its ceiling yet at that end and may even have some defensive headroom too.
There’s a real chance the team finishes number one in both offensive and defensive rating, IMO.
Also, Tatum continually posting up from the three point line is hilarious.
Also, Tatum continually posting up from the three point line is hilarious.