2023-24 Celtics

[InstaFace]

White, Holiday, and Big Al are so much better than the 4-6 guys on these teams it's crazy.

I think you mean Jaylen, White, and Al

Lol I wanted to avoid going there

It looks like it's worth putting up what the DARKO projections are for the main roster.

Tatum: 5.1 (-0.1 from last year)
Holiday: 4.8 (+1.4 from last year)
Porzingis: 2.9 (+1.3 from last year)
Brown: 2.8 (-1.0 from last year)
White: 2.2 (+1.8 from last year)
Horford: 0.7 (-0.6 from last year)

Career trend, respectively:




If you prefer LEBRON, he's got Jaylen 5th among our stars (the Lebron Rating rate stat, as well as the Lebron WAR which is a counting stat). Tatum at 11.7, Jrue 8.1, Porzingis 7.4, White 7.1, and Jaylen 4.9.



Now, that 4.9 is still better than the vast majority of players in the league - this is not an anti-Jaylen post. But it's not at all a stretch to believe Brown is our 4th best player (or 3rd, or even 5th).

 

[JakeRae]

Hauser has to make open looks or he has no business being out there. He did not make a great impression in the first game and the C's have a lot of other options for potential top bench wing.

I’ve seen this from several people and it really doesn’t make sense. Shooters don’t consistently shoot X% on a night to night basis, especially on relatively low volume. We have two bench players whose primary value is their shooting. They will each have great nights, average nights, and poor nights shooting. You can’t only choose to play Hauser on his 3/5 or 5/5 nights, you have to take the 0/4 nights along with that. We have much better evidence than last night that Hauser is a 40%+ shooter (as is Pritchard). He shot 42% last year and 43% the year before. He also shot over 40% from three in each of his four college seasons. There are few shooters as consistently excellent shooting the ball as Hauser and literally no reason right now to worry about his ability to repeat his past performance level as a shooter.

 

[benhogan]

I’ve seen this from several people and it really doesn’t make sense. Shooters don’t consistently shoot X% on a night to night basis, especially on relatively low volume. We have two bench players whose primary value is their shooting. They will each have great nights, average nights, and poor nights shooting. You can’t only choose to play Hauser on his 3/5 or 5/5 nights, you have to take the 0/4 nights along with that. We have much better evidence than last night that Hauser is a 40%+ shooter (as is Pritchard). He shot 42% last year and 43% the year before. He also shot over 40% from three in each of his four college seasons. There are few shooters as consistently excellent shooting the ball as Hauser and literally no reason right now to worry about his ability to repeat his past performance level as a shooter.

Yep, Hauser 6 straight years of 40%+ 3pt shooting. He'll continue to get open looks and eventually start nailing 3s at a high level

He also spent a season playing for Tony Bennett at UVA, the best defensive HC in college. 3SAM is a fundamentally sound defensive player who constantly directs his guy into help. Biases are strong when looking at Hauser, but he is more than fine against bench wings. He and PP should have a very long leash. Luke OTOH will need to start playing with some energy on either side of the ball over the next month to keep a TOP10 spot.

I could see Stevens or Brissett getting some bench minutes to sop up some Jimmy minutes tonight

 

[Auger34]

It looks like it's worth putting up what the DARKO projections are for the main roster.

Tatum: 5.1 (-0.1 from last year)
Holiday: 4.8 (+1.4 from last year)
Porzingis: 2.9 (+1.3 from last year)
Brown: 2.8 (-1.0 from last year)
White: 2.2 (+1.8 from last year)
Horford: 0.7 (-0.6 from last year)

Career trend, respectively:

View attachment 73070


If you prefer LEBRON, he's got Jaylen 5th among our stars (the Lebron Rating rate stat, as well as the Lebron WAR which is a counting stat). Tatum at 11.7, Jrue 8.1, Porzingis 7.4, White 7.1, and Jaylen 4.9.

View attachment 73071

Now, that 4.9 is still better than the vast majority of players in the league - this is not an anti-Jaylen post. But it's not at all a stretch to believe Brown is our 4th best player (or 3rd, or even 5th).

I’ll ignore the LeBron one because a projection system that has Jaylen that far below Derrick White just isn’t worth discussion.

I’m curious as to why Jaylen’s DARKO projection fell that much. I’m assuming just because of less shots this year?

 

[JakeRae]

I’ll ignore the LeBron one because a projection system that has Jaylen that far below Derrick White just isn’t worth discussion.

I’m curious as to why Jaylen’s DARKO projection fell that much. I’m assuming just because of less shots this year?

Jaylen consistently really isn’t very good by adjusted plus minus metrics. I do understand believing in him anyway, but ignoring or throwing out that evidence makes no sense. There’s good reasons to believe adjusted plus minus because it matches the observable fact that Jaylen, despite his excellent skills and elite athleticism, has a terrible feel for the game. He consistently gets lost on both ends and alternatively spends time trying to do way too much. He has the skill set of a top 15 player, but he has never seemed to perform close to that level, and I’m skeptical he ever will. White is basically the opposite. He’s very far from an elite skill set but he has elite court awareness and feel, which lets him punch well above his weight (Smart and Jrue are similar in that regard).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I’ve seen this from several people and it really doesn’t make sense. Shooters don’t consistently shoot X% on a night to night basis, especially on relatively low volume. We have two bench players whose primary value is their shooting. They will each have great nights, average nights, and poor nights shooting. You can’t only choose to play Hauser on his 3/5 or 5/5 nights, you have to take the 0/4 nights along with that. We have much better evidence than last night that Hauser is a 40%+ shooter (as is Pritchard). He shot 42% last year and 43% the year before. He also shot over 40% from three in each of his four college seasons. There are few shooters as consistently excellent shooting the ball as Hauser and literally no reason right now to worry about his ability to repeat his past performance level as a shooter.

I didn't watch much preseason but was ready some poster here discuss his mechanics or change in approach. There are a couple ways to view this. One, he remains mechanically sound and confident, still performing in other area until his shot begins to fall. Or Two, it affects other aspects of his game, his poor shooting results in bad or forced shot selections.

If/When #2 occurs that is when you are no longer playing the player who was formerly a 43% 3-pt shooter as the evaluation then changes.

 

[radsoxfan]

Jaylen consistently really isn’t very good by adjusted plus minus metrics. I do understand believing in him anyway, but ignoring or throwing out that evidence makes no sense.

I agree. One of the main goals of advanced metrics is figuring out a more accurate valuation beyond someone's personal eye test or conventional wisdom. If a result "doesn't make sense", you don't just immediately throw it out.

Obviously we should allow for the possibility that a metric is simply not good. But in general, when there is a result that questions the status quo (i.e. Derrick White is better than Jaylen Brown), the correct response is not to scoff and say that metric is useless.

Rather, it's to try to see what that metric is capturing that conventional wisdom is not. From there you can start to figure out how useful that data point might be, if it's reasonable, etc.

I'm not trying to say DW actually is better than JB, but refusing to consider evidence that DW could be is definitely not the way to do it.

 

[Auger34]

Jaylen consistently really isn’t very good by adjusted plus minus metrics. I do understand believing in him anyway, but ignoring or throwing out that evidence makes no sense. There’s good reasons to believe adjusted plus minus because it matches the observable fact that Jaylen, despite his excellent skills and elite athleticism, has a terrible feel for the game. He consistently gets lost on both ends and alternatively spends time trying to do way too much. He has the skill set of a top 15 player, but he has never seemed to perform close to that level, and I’m skeptical he ever will. White is basically the opposite. He’s very far from an elite skill set but he has elite court awareness and feel, which lets him punch well above his weight (Smart and Jrue are similar in that regard).

I mean, it’s a metric to consider and another data point. I won’t consider it very much, you can if you would like. Different strokes for different folks, I don’t need a lecture from you or radsox fan on how to interpret it. A lot of advanced basketball stats are incredibly flawed, so I don’t think not taking them very seriously is the cardinals sin that you and others do

The White portion is something that anyone can see. I am a White fan, I’ve praised him consistently on here, I don’t need an explanation of his game and how it helps him “punch above his weight”. You can find my other posts on this board talking about how great he is on defense or when I said that he was one of the only players on the team who truly makes quick decisions and moves off-ball (along with Holiday).

I’ve been over Jaylen’s faults and positives on this ad nauseam. I have no interest in doing it again. I agree with a decent portion of what you said, disagree with some of it. . To the “top 15” portion, Jaylen made All-NBA last year. Injuries and position helped. So let’s say he’s top 25.
Basketball media isnt perfect but, on the whole, the All-NBA team is pretty instructive. There are caveats attached to it but Jaylen made the team. Do we really think White will ever get close to an All NBA team?

Maybe the argument is that White is more valuable as a 4th option than Brown. I would agree with that. Then it’s a semantics discussion on how players are valued. Personally, I think that being able to be a 2nd option on a really good team is more valuable than the “amplifying” ability of someone like White. I can understand a difference of opinion on that but its not going to make me change mine

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I mean, it’s a metric to consider and another data point. I won’t consider it very much, you can if you would like. Different strokes for different folks, I don’t need a lecture from you or radsox fan on how to interpret it. A lot of advanced basketball stats are incredibly flawed, so I don’t think not taking them very seriously is the cardinals sin that you and others do

The White portion is something that anyone can see. I am a White fan, I’ve praised him consistently on here, I don’t need an explanation of his game and how it helps him “punch above his weight”. You can find my other posts on this board talking about how great he is on defense or when I said that he was one of the only players on the team who truly makes quick decisions and moves off-ball (along with Holiday).

I’ve been over Jaylen’s faults and positives on this ad nauseam. I have no interest in doing it again. I agree with a decent portion of what you said, disagree with some of it. . To the “top 15” portion, Jaylen made All-NBA last year. Injuries and position helped. So let’s say he’s top 25.
Basketball media isnt perfect but, on the whole, the All-NBA team is pretty instructive. There are caveats attached to it but Jaylen made the team. Do we really think White will ever get close to an All NBA team?

Maybe the argument is that White is more valuable as a 4th option than Brown. I would agree with that. Then it’s a semantics discussion on how players are valued. Personally, I think that being able to be a 2nd option on a really good team is more valuable than the “amplifying” ability of someone like White. I can understand a difference of opinion on that but its not going to make me change mine

Bravo! Great post. You can be the superior basketball player yet not produce as much on the floor. There are other variables in play....not everything is brown and white.

 

[Devizier]

Bravo! Great post. You can be the superior basketball player yet not produce as much on the floor. There are other variables in play....not everything is brown and white.

Not bad. Not bad. Not @singaporesoxfan but

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Not bad. Not bad. Not @singaporesoxfan but

I'm like Ben Simmons at the line....every once in a while I hit one.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UVXi2IwpYM&ab_channel=NBA

 

[jmcc5400]

I haven’t ducked into the game thread yet, so hopefully he’s getting his flowers, but Brissett gave them some nice minutes tonight.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I’ve seen this from several people and it really doesn’t make sense. Shooters don’t consistently shoot X% on a night to night basis, especially on relatively low volume. We have two bench players whose primary value is their shooting. They will each have great nights, average nights, and poor nights shooting. You can’t only choose to play Hauser on his 3/5 or 5/5 nights, you have to take the 0/4 nights along with that. We have much better evidence than last night that Hauser is a 40%+ shooter (as is Pritchard). He shot 42% last year and 43% the year before. He also shot over 40% from three in each of his four college seasons. There are few shooters as consistently excellent shooting the ball as Hauser and literally no reason right now to worry about his ability to repeat his past performance level as a shooter.

The only thing is that Hauser was apparently told that he has to do more than shoot open 3Ps and by my eye he's taking tougher shots. Hopefully thry start falling for him.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Imagine telling someone 15 (10?) years ago that the Warriors would be the most valuable franchise in the league by a good margin.

Imagine telling someone 25 years ago that Pats would be #2. Curry has probably made Lacob and his group like $3.5-4B.

 

[Ed Hillel]

So, we are two games in, both close in the final 5 minutes and already you can see the difference. They are running real offense, moving the ball, moving themselves, and getting much better looks than with Smart running things/shooting and/or reflexively going to the Tatum iso. This looks like a team from the 80’s.

Brad done good.

 

[lovegtm]

So, we are two games in, both close in the final 5 minutes and already you can see the difference. They are running real offense, moving the ball, moving themselves, and getting much better looks than with Smart running things/shooting and/or reflexively going to the Tatum iso. This looks like a team from the 80’s.

Brad done good.

And they still have kinda meh chemistry on offense and have a TON of work to do on that end. It shows up most with the role players: Pritchard and Hauser just aren't getting the ball in space often off of advantages from the stars, because everything is still janky.

But this is why having lots of talent is good: you can run basic things late and still have them generate real advantages consistently.

Excited for this season to develop. I think by game 50, things will look a lot different, in a good way.

 

[Kenesaw Martin Landau]

The only thing is that Hauser was apparently told that he has to do more than shoot open 3Ps and by my eye he's taking tougher shots. Hopefully thry start falling for him.

He is also getting stronger closeouts, opponents aren't just going to watch him hit practice threes anymore.
Right now, he seems to be rushing things a bit, getting sped up by the defensive pressure.

He's a good shooter, just needs to settle down and make a few adjustments.

 

[lovegtm]

I know everyone wants 3 point variance to be a morality play, but I thought the Cs did a much better job of not overhelping than against NYK, and were pretty unlucky for Miami to hit as many as it did. Most of them weren't quality hit-the-paint-force-rotation-kick 3s, they were guys taking pretty tough above the break shots.

Even with that, they held Miami to only 33 three attempts while also completely locking down 2 point range once again, impressive.

 

[Devizier]

One thing about their offense is that the Celtics could keep generating good looks and holding that lead despite that run where Miami couldn’t miss. And they kept making shots once Miami started missing again.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

This was an interesting game. I think we are in effect still in the preseason, with the starters finally getting actual minutes together.

Early on, the Celtics came out flat, missing threes and missing shots in the restricted area. Miami was working hard on defense and the Celtics were getting to the rim but the looks were not clean and not falling. Meanwhile, at the defensive end, Bam Adebayo was taking it right at KP with success, and we did not see the same excellent interior defense from KP as in game 1. In fact, it seemed like Bam broke the defense open and then other players started getting looks. (Bam is a player I don't understand, in the sense that he seems able to have great success against any manner of defender the Celtics throw at him, but for all that I'm not sure he's as impactful as it feels like he should be.) KP also picked up 2 quick fouls and missed threes as well as shots at the rim imn the first.

Anyway, Miami went up 26-13 in the first and that was their high water mark for the game (Boston outscored them 106-85 the rest of the way). Mazzulla went into his bag and pulled out Oshae Brissett (who played instead of Luke Kornet today). Brissett brought immediate energy, grabbing 3 rebounds (2 offensive) scoring on a dunk, and very much changing the flow of the game. When Brissett left after playing the end of the first quarter and the first 2 minutes of the second, the Celtics were down by only 2.

Miami stayed in this one with some hot 3 point shooting, shooting nearly 50% for the game, while Boston got more shots and shot better from 2. KP got his act somewhat together at both ends of the floor in the second half, but eventually fouled out with 17 points, 9 rebounds, an assist, 3 steals, and a block. Pretty good for an off game, though he was the only Celtic player with a minus for the game (-12). This is also the second stright game where he has picked up a dumb tech, so that is something to watch.

Tatum played 41 minutes and scored 21 points (9 of 22, 3 of 10 from 3, 1 of 3 from the line), not a great offensive game from him, though he did have 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal vs 2 turnovers.

What was interesting about this game is that, where the Knicks game was the Tatum and KP show, this game was very much the White, Jaylen, and Holiday show, especially in the 4th quarter.

White led the team with 28 points, 14 of them coming in the fourth quarter. He also had 6 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and 3 blocks, inclduing a couple on Butler. He was the only Celtic who was really hot from three (5-7) though a couple of others shot respectably.

Brown had 27 points, including 12 in the 4th. (He and White combined to outscore the Heat 26-23 by themselves). Throughout the game he took and made some difficult shots. He also had 6 rebounds, an assist, and 2 steals, though on the downside he led the team with 4 turnovers.

Holiday had 17 points on 7 for 13 shooting (1 for 4 from three), but he also had 10 rebounds (tied for team lead with Horford) and a team-leading 7 assists. He also had an incredible transition block in the 4th quarter in the middle of a sequence where things looked like they might turn agaisnt the Celtics.

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1718076658127974457?s=20


And here's White catching Butler:

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1718085013558734933?s=20


The bench is still a problem, as is Tatum playing 41 minutes. Getting quality minutes out of Brissett is hopefully a start.

 

[lexrageorge]

I know there's some concern about the minutes the Celtics starters played, but they were not that much different than Miami's:

#1: Tatum (41) vs Herro (40)
#2: Holliday (36) vs Bam (35)
#3: White (36) vs Butler (34)
#4: Jaylen (34) vs Lowry (32)

I left out #5, because Porzingis fouled out and Miami was forced to start Kevin Love. But that's not a huge gap in usage among the top 4 in minutes (6 total minutes). Both teams basically had 4 players contribute minutes from the bench (ignoring Cain's 4 meaningless minutes for the Heat). If there was a gap, it was that Miami got 20 points from its second unit while Boston got 8. Then again, it's unlikely that Horford will have many 0-6 shooting nights.

Overall, it's hard to fault Mazzulla for wanting to go all out to steal a win against the Heat in Boston's home opener given what happened last season (those things can matter). The real test of Mazzulla's rotations will probably start a week from now, when the Celtics kick off a stretch of 14 games in 25 days, with 2 B2B's and 4 tournament games.

 

[TripleOT]

The rim hijackings by Holiday and White are plays you might see from a guard once or twice in a season. We got two in the same game.

This backcourt can fight through screens so well that the opposition’s bread and butter sets are a struggle. If they manage to get a switch, both guys can play stout defense against bigger attackers.

For years we have been discussing the perfect teammates around the Jays. A floor spreading 7 footer who can guard the rim, along with two stout, unselfish, all around guards, is exactly what has been needed.

Bench scoring will need to pick up, with 12 points in the Knicks game, and only 8 in the home opener. Horford isn’t much of a scorer as a starter. I don’t see him as much of one off the bench. Maybe there’s enough scoring punch from the top five that mixing and matching two of them with the reserves and letting the starters feast will be sufficient.

 

[TripleOT]

I know there's some concern about the minutes the Celtics starters played, but they were not that much different than Miami's:

#1: Tatum (41) vs Herro (40)
#2: Holliday (36) vs Bam (35)
#3: White (36) vs Butler (34)
#4: Jaylen (34) vs Lowry (32)

I left out #5, because Porzingis fouled out and Miami was forced to start Kevin Love. But that's not a huge gap in usage among the top 4 in minutes (6 total minutes). Both teams basically had 4 players contribute minutes from the bench (ignoring Cain's 4 meaningless minutes for the Heat). If there was a gap, it was that Miami got 20 points from its second unit while Boston got 8. Then again, it's unlikely that Horford will have many 0-6 shooting nights.

Overall, it's hard to fault Mazzulla for wanting to go all out to steal a win against the Heat in Boston's home opener given what happened last season (those things can matter). The real test of Mazzulla's rotations will probably start a week from now, when the Celtics kick off a stretch of 14 games in 25 days, with 2 B2B's and 4 tournament games.

Tatum’s minutes on this talented squad to me are different than in past years where he had to do more. It was a Moses Malone-style full lather 40 minutes in past years, while 40 minutes this year is more like a leisurely stroll in the park.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I know there's some concern about the minutes the Celtics starters played, but they were not that much different than Miami's:

#1: Tatum (41) vs Herro (40)
#2: Holliday (36) vs Bam (35)
#3: White (36) vs Butler (34)
#4: Jaylen (34) vs Lowry (32)

I left out #5, because Porzingis fouled out and Miami was forced to start Kevin Love. But that's not a huge gap in usage among the top 4 in minutes (6 total minutes). Both teams basically had 4 players contribute minutes from the bench (ignoring Cain's 4 meaningless minutes for the Heat). If there was a gap, it was that Miami got 20 points from its second unit while Boston got 8. Then again, it's unlikely that Horford will have many 0-6 shooting nights.

Overall, it's hard to fault Mazzulla for wanting to go all out to steal a win against the Heat in Boston's home opener given what happened last season (those things can matter). The real test of Mazzulla's rotations will probably start a week from now, when the Celtics kick off a stretch of 14 games in 25 days, with 2 B2B's and 4 tournament games.

Playing game after an off day with the following 2 nights off is a perfect recipe for heavy starters minutes especially when training most of the game. Zero problem with that....would have been disappointed otherwise.

 

[lovegtm]

I know there's some concern about the minutes the Celtics starters played, but they were not that much different than Miami's:

#1: Tatum (41) vs Herro (40)
#2: Holliday (36) vs Bam (35)
#3: White (36) vs Butler (34)
#4: Jaylen (34) vs Lowry (32)

I left out #5, because Porzingis fouled out and Miami was forced to start Kevin Love. But that's not a huge gap in usage among the top 4 in minutes (6 total minutes). Both teams basically had 4 players contribute minutes from the bench (ignoring Cain's 4 meaningless minutes for the Heat). If there was a gap, it was that Miami got 20 points from its second unit while Boston got 8. Then again, it's unlikely that Horford will have many 0-6 shooting nights.

Overall, it's hard to fault Mazzulla for wanting to go all out to steal a win against the Heat in Boston's home opener given what happened last season (those things can matter). The real test of Mazzulla's rotations will probably start a week from now, when the Celtics kick off a stretch of 14 games in 25 days, with 2 B2B's and 4 tournament games.

The team has 2 days off twice this coming week, which probably factored into Mazzulla's being fine with stretching Tatum out a bit.

And, as you note, Saint Eric Spoelstra also played a guy 40 minutes. With a B2B tonight and another game 2 days later!!!

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

For years we have been discussing the perfect teammates around the Jays. A floor spreading 7 footer who can guard the rim, along with two stout, unselfish, all around guards, is exactly what has been needed.

And the amazing thing is that we didn't just get a floor spacing 7 footer, we got Zinger, who plays like a 7 foot shooting guard and we didn't just get 2 stout guards, we got 2 all-NBA defensive guards who just happen to shoot 38-40% from 3P.

There's just one thing left to say:

pleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthypleasestayhealthy . . . .

 

[Ed Hillel]

The rim hijackings by Holiday and White are plays you might see from a guard once or twice in a season. We got two in the same game.

Three, actually. White did it twice to Butler!

 

[lexrageorge]

The team has 2 days off twice this coming week, which probably factored into Mazzulla's being fine with stretching Tatum out a bit.

And, as you note, Saint Eric Spoelstra also played a guy 40 minutes. With a B2B tonight and another game 2 days later!!!

It's also very easy for us to say a game against the Heat is just another regular season game. But the players certainly don't feel that way right now; I'm not sure even Brad Stevens or Wyc felt that way about this home opener. A loss could have advanced the narrative that the "Celtics cannot beat the Heat with Herro/Butler/Bam" among fans and media, which is less than ideal.

The remaining 2 games against the Heat are in Miami, so this was the team's only chance to showcase the new lineup against their nemesis in front of the home fans. And given the other 2 matchups occur in the depths of January/February, this was an ideal game to play to win. I'm sure Spoelstra felt this one was important as well, which is to be expected.

 

[InstaFace]

In control is a great way to describe Jrue's game. And on top of that he was crashing the boards all night.

I’m almost more interested to see how the team looks against some softer competition now. They really struggled against some lower tier teams last year but it feels like they should be a blowout factory in those situations now. But you never know, teams always get up a little extra for the top dogs.

But the defense to offense transitions are going to bear fruit all season.

Dude, this team is absolutely going to suffocate crappy teams. Of this I have zero doubt.

With the first 2 games of the season being so intense, against such good teams who've given us such trouble, I really wouldn't want to be Washington on Monday. I expect there will be some games this year where we don't want to sit some.of our stars outright because of the load-management rules, but we end up playing some starters like 15-20' instead of 35' because the bench is cooking and we're up 30. Not everyone is going to shut down PP and Hauser.

 

[Saints Rest]

Glad to see the guys who had rough game ones having strong game twos.

 

[Auger34]

Three, actually. White did it twice to Butler!

Slight correction. Once to Butler and once to Jaime Jaquez

 

[DavidTai]

Slight correction. Once to Butler and once to Jaime Jaquez

Holiday was the one who did it to Jaquez. Butler got blocked twice by White.

 

[jmcc5400]

Slight correction. Once to Butler and once to Jaime Jaquez

Are you sure? I thought White got Butler twice and Jrue got Jaquez. Was it Jaquez who was obliterated twice?

 

[DavidTai]

Are you sure? I thought White got Butler twice and Jrue got Jaquez. Was it Jaquez who was obliterated twice?

First Butler block

View: https://twitter.com/_HoopsNation/status/1718055132330704995?s=19


Jaquez block

View: https://twitter.com/TheOutletForum/status/1718079540348813760?s=19

Second Butler block

View: https://twitter.com/DimeUPROXX/status/1718083517714726979?s=19

 

[DavidTai]

Correction, three Butler blocks by White, 1:33 in this video.
View: https://youtu.be/5rBZtevIru8?si=R4eQDb3aDpK95C_T

 

[chilidawg]

C's defense giving up 36% shooting from 2 (league best) and 46% from 3 (3rd worst). Feature or bug? Or just noise?

 

[DavidTai]

C's defense giving up 36% shooting from 2 (league best) and 46% from 3 (3rd worst). Feature or bug? Or just noise?

Small sample size at this point.

 

[Imbricus]

C's defense giving up 36% shooting from 2 (league best) and 46% from 3 (3rd worst). Feature or bug? Or just noise?

I would put some stock in the 36% number (even though, right, it's a small sample size for either). Their defense inside the three-point line, and near the basket, has been stout. Just look at how Jrue bodied up Randle in the New York game. We've got some really good defenders.

But I think the 46% figure is close to meaningless. Look at the Curry-like shots Herro was hitting last night. I think New York and Miami mostly just happened to have good shooting games from outside. It happens.

 

[benhogan]

C's defense giving up 36% shooting from 2 (league best) and 46% from 3 (3rd worst). Feature or bug? Or just noise?

obviously SSS but having two guards blocking shots at a high rate along with a 7'3" Center playing drop should lead to a very good 2pt FG% against

 

[chilidawg]

obviously SSS but having two guards blocking shots at a high rate along with a 7'3" Center playing drop should lead to a very good 2pt FG% against

The interior defense certainly has met the eye test as well. I'm a little concerned about the 3 point defense as it has seemed to me that they're giving up more good looks than you'd like. Bears watching moving forward.

 

[benhogan]

The interior defense certainly has met the eye test as well. I'm a little concerned about the 3 point defense as it has seemed to me that they're giving up more good looks than you'd like. Bears watching moving forward.

3pt shooting will revert, as long as they stop giving up offensive boards that lead to kick-out/step-in 3s

PLUS some players have the bad habit of floating off their man to give feint on-ball help.

Also, the JAYs need to stop the half-hearted jogging back on D, they both have done it multiple times in each game. CJM needs to put his foot down with that crap or give them bench time.

 

[SteveF]

The median shooting % on wide open 3s so far this year is 36.6%. The Celtics have allowed 55%.
The median frequency of wide open 3s so far this year is 20.1%. The Celtics have allowed 21.5%.

The median shooting % on open 3s so far thus year is 32.8%. The Celtics have allowed 30.4%.
The median frequency of open 3s so far this year is 12.6%. The Celtics have allowed 12.4%.

Opponents are 8-19 (42.11%) on 3s after they miss a FG attempt. That's not always the classic offensive rebound and kick out to a wide open shooter for a 3, but it at least gives some of that flavor.

 

[Auger34]

Also, the JAYs need to stop the half-hearted jogging back on D, they both have done it multiple times in each game. CJM needs to put his foot down with that crap or give them bench time.

This is very, very true. Something ive noticed a lot in the first two games. Hopefully they take a cue from White and Jrue

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Also, I think the Cs are getting everyone's best shot this season.

 

[DavidTai]

Also, I think the Cs are getting everyone's best shot this season.

Considering how poorly the Knicks and the Heat shot the next games... yeah. I don't think there's going to be any "rest" games against us.

 

[chilidawg]

I hadn't seen this anywhere previously. It'd be a classic ubuntu move if each of the starters came off the bench at least once.

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/28/nba-boston-celtics-6-starters/

 

[lovegtm]

I hadn't seen this anywhere previously. It'd be a classic ubuntu move if each of the starters came off the bench at least once.

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/28/nba-boston-celtics-6-starters/

Would have been cute, but everyone quickly arrived at the right conclusion: Al Horford is no longer a starter, and the other guys definitely are.

 

[InstaFace]

BenHogan had this excellent summary in the NBA game thread that deserves some more attention:

The NBA Media completely whiffed on PBS' strategy behind the Celtic's bench/depth. This team was designed to have 2-3 All-Star level players on the floor throughout a close/important regular season game. In a playoff game, it will be 3-4 starters on the floor at all times

Brad added/kept ROLE players that could either SHOOT (Hauser, PP, Svi) or DEFEND at a high level (Brissett, Stevens, Banton, Walsh).

We'll see how Boston addresses 3rd string defensive Center, but it's also the easiest position to find depth. Either Queta or Knight could pass Luke for the spot or CJM could go "small" with Brissett (on Bam types). Half a dozen options there have me not really grabbing my pearls.

Injuries will happen but the C's are positioned better than every other NBA team to withstand that.

The BUCKs are much older throughout their rotation & are completely geared to Dame + Giannis being 100%.
Middleton is reminiscent of Kemba's final Celtic days, go for 25pts and then be out for weeks. Fools Gold.

Short MIL with every NBA team, fired up to give them their best shot on a January Tuesday night. No games off.

I guess I have a few questions in reply:

(1) how is Brad's strategy different than most NBA teams, other than the fact that he has a dynamite starting lineup? From what I can tell if you can't shoot the lights out and you can't defend NBA players, you're not on an NBA roster.

In the past you could maybe say that non-starting-but-rotation players like Grant, Rozier, Thompson etc could contribute on both ends as a sort of "starter-lite" profile. That Schröder was Smart-lite, say. But I'm not sure Brad has gone to any greater extreme than usual in being willing to overlook one end of the floor if someone is solid on the other end, for end-of-bench roles.

(2) If you're correct that there is not going to be any "second unit" as most teams play one, but rather a steady presence of starters on the floor at any given time, with both halves opening and closing with all of them - then aren't we at risk of running the starters too many minutes and raising our injury risk? Bench minutes our first two games, Horford included:

#1: 58' (NYK: 92')
#2: 62' (MIA: 79') - and this would've been 59' had KP not fouled out

We don't have a ton of data yet, but my impression is that we're playing our bench fewer minutes than most NBA teams usually do. White and Tatum are ironmen, but particularly for Porzingis and Horford (and to a lesser extent Holiday and Brown, for different reasons) I assume we really want to cut them more of a break. And that may mean a rotation strategy that doesn't lean as heavily on the starters for as much of the game as it has thus far.

Perhaps after we get in our reps for "learning how to play together", the middle third of the season will feature more bench development and seeing who can hang from the crew that's behind our top 8. With Kornet essentially interviewing for his job, Brissett already seeing the floor, and most of the other guys giving reason for optimism at some point in the preseason, I hope we can settle on the idea that a few of them are playable, or are likely to become so if given some reps and rope.

 

[lovegtm]

BenHogan had this excellent summary in the NBA game thread that deserves some more attention:

I guess I have a few questions in reply:

(1) how is Brad's strategy different than most NBA teams, other than the fact that he has a dynamite starting lineup? From what I can tell if you can't shoot the lights out and you can't defend NBA players, you're not on an NBA roster.

In the past you could maybe say that non-starting-but-rotation players like Grant, Rozier, Thompson etc could contribute on both ends as a sort of "starter-lite" profile. That Schröder was Smart-lite, say. But I'm not sure Brad has gone to any greater extreme than usual in being willing to overlook one end of the floor if someone is solid on the other end, for end-of-bench roles.

(2) If you're correct that there is not going to be any "second unit" as most teams play one, but rather a steady presence of starters on the floor at any given time, with both halves opening and closing with all of them - then aren't we at risk of running the starters too many minutes and raising our injury risk? Bench minutes our first two games, Horford included:

#1: 58' (NYK: 92')
#2: 62' (MIA: 79') - and this would've been 59' had KP not fouled out

We don't have a ton of data yet, but my impression is that we're playing our bench fewer minutes than most NBA teams usually do. White and Tatum are ironmen, but particularly for Porzingis and Horford (and to a lesser extent Holiday and Brown, for different reasons) I assume we really want to cut them more of a break. And that may mean a rotation strategy that doesn't lean as heavily on the starters for as much of the game as it has thus far.

Perhaps after we get in our reps for "learning how to play together", the middle third of the season will feature more bench development and seeing who can hang from the crew that's behind our top 8. With Kornet essentially interviewing for his job, Brissett already seeing the floor, and most of the other guys giving reason for optimism at some point in the preseason, I hope we can settle on the idea that a few of them are playable, or are likely to become so if given some reps and rope.

Aside from Tatum, none of the starters have played heavy minutes. This is just what happens when you have 6 good players and they're all healthy and the schedule is gentle.

There are only 240 minutes to distribute in an NBA game. If you have 6 guys averaging 34 minutes, there are only 36 minutes left over. That's almost exactly what Brissett/Hauser/PP played against Miami.

I guess you could say "play the starters less", but there was zero reason to do that with a very light schedule coming up.