2022 49ers -- Purdy..... Purdy..... Purdy Good

scott bankheadcase

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Really impressive what he is doing but I wonder if the creating out of structure is going to get him in trouble. He seems to like to reset his throwing foundation close to the sideline which takes a lot of time and will end up with him taking some big hits. If he just threw on the run instead of fully setting his feet he'd protect himself more. I admit I haven't seen him play much so perhaps last night was just trying to do a little bit more in the playoffs but I was really surprised how many times he tried to get a big play off right at the sideline. He nearly took a couple big hits as a result and a team with a better pass rush will likely get to him if he does something similar.
With you on taking the hits. That’s a legit concern.

The upside to what he does though is he doesn’t throw stupid passes on the run because of this. It’s either getting it to someone or throwing it away. Many rookie QBs (and veterans) in the same circumstances are throwing dumb picks in those situations. Purdy doesn’t.
 

trekfan55

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So it's either Dallas or Tampa Bay next Sunday. I assume they would play on Saturday if it was vs Minnesota (giving the Eagles the Sunday slot).

They dominated the Bucs on Week 14, and we know what happened vs Dallas in last year's playoffs (and they were underdogs playing on the road). The only reason I did not want Minnesota is that the 9ers main weakness is their secondary, which is scueptible to the long pass. We saw how KC demolished them and then the Raiders with Stidham and Adams.
 

coremiller

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So it's either Dallas or Tampa Bay next Sunday. I assume they would play on Saturday if it was vs Minnesota (giving the Eagles the Sunday slot).

They dominated the Bucs on Week 14, and we know what happened vs Dallas in last year's playoffs (and they were underdogs playing on the road). The only reason I did not want Minnesota is that the 9ers main weakness is their secondary, which is scueptible to the long pass. We saw how KC demolished them and then the Raiders with Stidham and Adams.
I'd much rather see Tampa, not because of the Week 14 result but simply because Dallas is a much better team this year.
 

rodderick

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I'd much rather see Tampa, not because of the Week 14 result but simply because Dallas is a much better team this year.
Yeah, if Dallas has a good game they have the talent to go toe to toe, even though they're inconsistent. I don't think Tampa has a shot unless either the 49ers OL or their front seven completely trips over their own dicks and ruin the game, even if the Bucs play great.
 

heavyde050

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Yeah, if Dallas has a good game they have the talent to go toe to toe, even though they're inconsistent. I don't think Tampa has a shot unless either the 49ers OL or their front seven completely trips over their own dicks and ruin the game, even if the Bucs play great.
I am not sure about this. I mean Dak has been a turnover machine lately and the San Francisco secondary thrives off of turnovers. I was at the first SF vs TB game and if they don't call a really weak roughing the passer on the first play and a 68 yard TD doesn't get called back, the game is closer.
I think San Francisco is much better than either team and should be going to the NFC Championship Game. But if I have to pick my poison, I would rather take my chances with Dak and the Cowboys than Tom Brady. Dak has had at least one interception in every game since 11/24.
 

BaseballJones

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If the Tampa OL is healthy and playing well, Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin absolutely have a legit shot against the 49ers.
 

BaseballJones

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Leonard Fournette has arguably been the worst running back in football this year.
I guess you could argue that. It's a bad argument, but you could argue it.

Bad offensive line - not played well, plus tons of injuries (just ask Brady) - has hurt his rushing. As a team they average just 3.4 yards per carry. He's caught 73 passes for 523 yards, so he's still given them something. He's fine.
 

rodderick

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I guess you could argue that. It's a bad argument, but you could argue it.

Bad offensive line - not played well, plus tons of injuries (just ask Brady) - has hurt his rushing. As a team they average just 3.4 yards per carry. He's caught 73 passes for 523 yards, so he's still given them something. He's fine.
Okay, so is Ryan Jensen's presence alone going to change the context in which he's played really poorly into one in which he could be a weapon? Brady goes his way in the passing game because they have no consistent third option (Gage has been hobbled and a disappointment, Julio Jones is washed, the two young TEs still aren't there mentally). He's done very little with his opportunities and I have no idea why anyone would project that to change against better competition.
 

BaseballJones

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Okay, so is Ryan Jensen's presence alone going to change the context in which he's played really poorly into one in which he could be a weapon? Brady goes his way in the passing game because they have no consistent third option (Gage has been hobbled and a disappointment, Julio Jones is washed, the two young TEs still aren't there mentally). He's done very little with his opportunities and I have no idea why anyone would project that to change against better competition.
This little conversation started with me stating, "If the Tampa OL is healthy and playing well...". Your response was that Fournette sucks. I replied that no he hasn't - the issue has been their offensive line. To which you replied with the above.

OBVIOUSLY if the offensive line isn't good tonight, they will struggle on offense against San Francisco's defense. Which goes back to my first point - IF the Tampa OL is healthy and playing well....Brady has enough around him to give them a legit shot.

I don't know how likely it is that the Tampa OL is healthy and plays well tonight. I'm just saying IF they are, and IF they do, then Tampa can win this game.

I don't really know what you're arguing.
 

rodderick

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This little conversation started with me stating, "If the Tampa OL is healthy and playing well...". Your response was that Fournette sucks. I replied that no he hasn't - the issue has been their offensive line. To which you replied with the above.

OBVIOUSLY if the offensive line isn't good tonight, they will struggle on offense against San Francisco's defense. Which goes back to my first point - IF the Tampa OL is healthy and playing well....Brady has enough around him to give them a legit shot.

I don't know how likely it is that the Tampa OL is healthy and plays well tonight. I'm just saying IF they are, and IF they do, then Tampa can win this game.

I don't really know what you're arguing.
I'm arguing Leonard Fournette doesn't deserve to be cited among the reasons the Bucs would go on a playoff run in year-of-our-lord 2023, even if their OL plays well.
 

scott bankheadcase

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At this point I’m pretty confident against all the NFC teams left. But all of them (except the Giants) I think could beat the niners if they play their best game — I think SF can beat the Giants’ best game with just an average showing.

There’s pluses an minuses to Dal and TB.
 

johnmd20

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I'm arguing Leonard Fournette doesn't deserve to be cited among the reasons the Bucs would go on a playoff run in year-of-our-lord 2023, even if their OL plays well.
This is insane. Fournette has 73 catches this year, he's a weapon in the passing game. And the most yards receiving in his career in 2022.

If TB is going to go on a run in these playoffs, Fournette will definitely be a reason why. Yes, Fournette cannot find yards on the ground because the line is that bad. But if the line gets better, Fournette's numbers should improve, too. He's a key part of the offense.
 

rodderick

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This is insane. Fournette has 73 catches this year, he's a weapon in the passing game. And the most yards receiving in his career in 2022.

If TB is going to go on a run in these playoffs, Fournette will definitely be a reason why. Yes, Fournette cannot find yards on the ground because the line is that bad. But if the line gets better, Fournette's numbers should improve, too. He's a key part of the offense.
The fact that he has 73 catches this year is maybe the purest reflection of the struggles they've had in pass protection and throwing the ball in general and helps explain why their offense is scoring more than 10 points per game less than last season. They have no good third receiving option and no actual receiving back, that coupled with a bad pass blocking OL means a ton of dumpoffs that go for 5 yards on 3rd and 9. If the Bucs make a run, it'll be because the OL holds and Brady can actually get the ball down field to his receivers, Fournette catching a lot of passes will very likely mean they're struggling in a similar way as they have all season on that side of the ball.

I just can't imagine the 49ers defense having any trouble whatsoever stopping Leonard Fournette.
 

trekfan55

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It's Dallas.
Dak Prescott played really well vs Tampa Bay and has weapons. Their defense was also good.

It should be a very good game but I think the Niners are a better team. The defense is loaded and the offensive weapons are there. Last year they pulled it off being an underdog #6. They have a much better team this year.
 

trekfan55

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Ron Carthon looks headed to Tennessee to be their new GM.

Add another 3rd rounder this year for SF.
Would Trey Lance fetch a 1st rounder this year?

Joking (and no he wouldn't coming out of his injury). But they do not have a 1st or 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft. Good thing almost everyone is locked up for at least one more year, but they will need some talent as they cannot keep everyone (no one can in today's NFL). Plus, they have to prepare a Brink's truck to back into Bosa's home, He's a FA after 2023 but I would sign an extension this offseason to help with his upcoming cap figure.
 

JCizzle

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Would Trey Lance fetch a 1st rounder this year?

Joking (and no he wouldn't coming out of his injury). But they do not have a 1st or 2nd rounder in the upcoming draft. Good thing almost everyone is locked up for at least one more year, but they will need some talent as they cannot keep everyone (no one can in today's NFL). Plus, they have to prepare a Brink's truck to back into Bosa's home, He's a FA after 2023 but I would sign an extension this offseason to help with his upcoming cap figure.
I agree they can’t keep everyone (e.g. McGlinchey is likely gone), but having two legit QB options making a combined $10M helps a ton with keeping the other top end talent like Bosa and Aiyuk.
 

scott bankheadcase

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I agree they can’t keep everyone (e.g. McGlinchey is likely gone), but having two legit QB options making a combined $10M helps a ton with keeping the other top end talent like Bosa and Aiyuk.
Yep, it's all about making the right choices. Kwan Williams was a great slot corner, but they couldn't afford to keep him so Jimmy Ward at slot with Gibson at safety has worked out well.

The need this offseason is Bosa (aiyuk is a year away). Hopefully Mosely will also take a 1 year prove it deal after the ACL and there will be enough to go around to fill the other holes (and remember how good Lynch and Peters are at finding guys in the 3rd and 5th rounds, picks they do have this year).
 

trekfan55

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Yep, it's all about making the right choices. Kwan Williams was a great slot corner, but they couldn't afford to keep him so Jimmy Ward at slot with Gibson at safety has worked out well.

The need this offseason is Bosa (aiyuk is a year away). Hopefully Mosely will also take a 1 year prove it deal after the ACL and there will be enough to go around to fill the other holes (and remember how good Lynch and Peters are at finding guys in the 3rd and 5th rounds, picks they do have this year).
Bosa had an option picked up. He's back in 2023. But they should sign him long term ASAP.

From what I see, a good hunk of the secondary are impending FAs. And that is the area where they most need help.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Bosa had an option picked up. He's back in 2023. But they should sign him long term ASAP.

From what I see, a good hunk of the secondary are impending FAs. And that is the area where they most need help.
Ward, McGlinchey, Al-Shaair, and Moseley jump out as the key guys.

The Niners are at about 12M under the cap for 2023 as of now. They can free up a good deal of space if they restructure the contracts for Arik Armstead or Trent Williams, or structure a Bosa extension to lower his cap hit next year (ie, give him a big signing/roster bonus(es) and push his 2023 salary lower). Whether they would feel compelled to do that for all of these guys, I don’t know, but there is latent cap flexibility there can take advantage of.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Ward, McGlinchey, Al-Shaair, and Moseley jump out as the key guys.

The Niners are at about 12M under the cap for 2023 as of now. They can free up a good deal of space if they restructure the contracts for Arik Armstead or Trent Williams, or structure a Bosa extension to lower his cap hit next year (ie, give him a big signing/roster bonus(es) and push his 2023 salary lower). Whether they would feel compelled to do that for all of these guys, I don’t know, but there is latent cap flexibility there can take advantage of.
Ward just signed a 3 year deal last March, so he isn't going anywhere this offseason. Unless you're talking about the other Ward that messed up so many people in the game thread. :)

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/157006-breaking-down-contract-details-49ers-charvarius-ward/
 

scott bankheadcase

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Woops, much likes the Patriots’ Joneses, I should’ve clarified that I’m talking about Jimmie Ward.
I like Jimmie Ward and I know Shanahan loves him. He's also one of the very very very few guys leftover from the non-Lynch Shanahan years.

But he seems pretty expendable if the open market is going to give him a lot of money. Current starting CB Lenoir was playing well at nickel corner when Mosely went down (ward was injured at the time). If Mosely re-signs or the niners bring in other CB help, Lenoir can cover that position and Ward doesn't need to be back.

These are some of the choices they'll have to make to throw the crazy money at Bosa that he'll need (and a good amount at Aiyuk).
 

SMU_Sox

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The Athletic guys throw some water on Purdy today. He played “fine” was behind on a lot of throws. Threw overwhelmingly to wide open receivers and only had two throws into tight windows the entire game. Said the game is really a testament to Shanahan and how he is one of the best gameplan architects and play designers. They did say that Purdy gives you 1-2+ plays out of structure that Jimmy G can’t give you.
 

scott bankheadcase

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The Athletic guys throw some water on Purdy today. He played “fine” was behind on a lot of throws. Threw overwhelmingly to wide open receivers and only had two throws into tight windows the entire game. Said the game is really a testament to Shanahan and how he is one of the best gameplan architects and play designers. They did say that Purdy gives you 1-2+ plays out of structure that Jimmy G can’t give you.
I feel like some of this is people trying to squint to find fault. Purdy throwing to the wide open receivers is why Shanahan is throwing a lot more than with Jimmy or Trey. Kyle doesn’t want tight window throws because Jimmy kept throwing bad ints on them.

Purdy’s average yards per target was over 11. And the niners are scoring over 10 more points per game than with Jimmy.

I hate making comparisons, because Purdy is a rookie 7th rounder. But Montana was also just throwing to wide open guys because Walsh was a genius.

He also wound up being Joe Montana.

The athletic Sf guys (barrows, Dave lombardi, Tim kwamaki) sing a different tune.

Overall lots of people are overrating Purdy I suppose (it’s expected though as the guy was Mr. Irrelevant). But the backlash is also kinda stupid.
 

SMU_Sox

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It isn't really a backlash imo. They said he played "fine". Jimmy G and Purdy are pretty close together here:

60209
I think if there is a backlash it’s that people think Purdy is the next coming of whoever when he’s on a stacked roster on both sides of the ball playing with one of the greatest offensive coaches of our generation.
Do you really think Purdy is 10 points per game better than Jimmy G? I think there is some noise there. But I don’t want to piss in your punch bowl. Their EPA stats are very similar.
 

SMU_Sox

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Or put it this way if we stack it by EPA/Play:




60210


Purdy and Jimmy G are 2nd and 4th.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Couple things:

1. one of the reasons Purdy is being overhyped in the media to a degree is that he IS a 7th round rookie and, at the very least, his numbers are slightly better than Jimmy. Again, crushing any and all expectations game.

2. Noise or not (I believe it's not as Purdy is a better QB from 10 yards and deeper than Jimmy and the numbers bear this out), the numbers show this offense is 10 points better with now almost an entire half season sample size (which is still too small, but it's what we have).

Purdy is opening up the entire offense because he can open up downfield, releasing all of Kyle's playbook. on throws 20+ Jimmy was 8 of 28 (1 TD 1 INT). Purdy is 5 of 13 (4 TDs, 1 INT). Between 10-19 yards? Jimmy 37-59. Purdy 31-39.

The eyes also tell me that Purdy is making off schedule plays and finding those weapons. In the red zone Jimmy did a lot of 1 read and then panic. Purdy is hitting all his progressions (as the CMC and Mitchell tds on Saturday showed).

He's still a rookie of course and he might not be all that great (his arm strength is meh, though his recognition and running the offense makes up for it). Is this all the weapons around him?

Very well could be. Of course what opened the whole offense up was CMC coming over, a trade those athletic guys didn't like (and I believe will be a fantastically terrible take by them).

I think mainly I just bristle at the "He's only hitting wide open guys!!!!!!!!" take. I mean, what else should he be doing? Credit Kyle if we want, but I watched Jimmy shrink in the Playoffs year after year and then I watched Purdy go for 300 and 4 tds without a pick. It's 1 game and a short season, so I can't argue we know enough and he's great. Hell, I'm super worried about Dallas' D and won't be shocked if the Niners get beat. I just know that the O is 10 points better when he's actually "just throwing to the wide open guys".
 

SMU_Sox

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He should be hitting wide open guys but to me his success is more a credit to Kyle Shanahan and his roster than him somehow being a savant.

I do not think he is that much, 10 points, better than Jimmy G on offense. Let's also look at the defensive points per drive rank of who the 49ers have played starting with Miami:

Miami: 2.17, 27th
Tampa: 1.86, 12th
Seattle: 2.11, 22nd
Washington: 1.72, 6th
Vegas: 2.34, 30th
Arizona: 2.39, 31st
Seattle: 2.11, 22nd.

We're talking 7 games and 5 of those are against bottom 10 defenses.

With EPA per play we can measure their expected point differences and multiply that by the average number of plays and it is 0.240 per play for Jimmy G vs 0.269 for Purdy. So 0.029 points per play better. Over the course of a 70 snap game Purdy is around 2 points better than Jimmy G.

He is middle of the pack throwing deep, 11.5% of the time and that's an upgrade over Jimmy G for sure who is always at the shallow end of that swimming pool.

I suppose for me it's more when I watch the 49ers I see a good offensive line and then basically pro-bowler caliber talent at skill positions combined with a fantastic coach. I was marveling at Kyle Shanahan and not Purdy when I saw them take apart the Seahawks. I would argue there are two coaches right now, in 2022/2023//this-season, who excel at putting defenders in conflict, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid.

Next-gen stats (NFL.com):

Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

Brock Purdy has the 2nd lowest rate of aggressiveness in the NFL. He is throwing to wide open targets which is all part of Shanahan's plan. He has the 4th lowest longest completed air distance one behind Jimmy G because neither guy has a cannon and this isn't that kind of offense. He and Jimmy G are bottom 10 guys for average air yards to the sticks. Why? Again it's the scheme. They throw to an open guy, often short of the sticks, who then RACs the other team to death. Guess who has the highest and second highest expected completion % in the NFL? Jimmy G and Purdy! It's the system. I admire the hell out of Kyle Shanahan. I think the guy is brilliant. I put him, McVay, and Andy Reid on a pedestal. I'm not sure how good a QB Purdy is because his situation from the teams he has played, to his surrounding talent, and to his coaching has been perfect or darn near close to it. I think we as fans tend to distill offenses and offensive success to the QB. I want to push back hard against that especially here and in these circumstances.

Shanahan imo deserves coach of the year consideration.
 

BigSoxFan

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He should be hitting wide open guys but to me his success is more a credit to Kyle Shanahan and his roster than him somehow being a savant.

I do not think he is that much, 10 points, better than Jimmy G on offense. Let's also look at the defensive points per drive rank of who the 49ers have played starting with Miami:

Miami: 2.17, 27th
Tampa: 1.86, 12th
Seattle: 2.11, 22nd
Washington: 1.72, 6th
Vegas: 2.34, 30th
Arizona: 2.39, 31st
Seattle: 2.11, 22nd.

We're talking 7 games and 5 of those are against bottom 10 defenses.

With EPA per play we can measure their expected point differences and multiply that by the average number of plays and it is 0.240 per play for Jimmy G vs 0.269 for Purdy. So 0.029 points per play better. Over the course of a 70 snap game Purdy is around 2 points better than Jimmy G.

He is middle of the pack throwing deep, 11.5% of the time and that's an upgrade over Jimmy G for sure who is always at the shallow end of that swimming pool.

I suppose for me it's more when I watch the 49ers I see a good offensive line and then basically pro-bowler caliber talent at skill positions combined with a fantastic coach. I was marveling at Kyle Shanahan and not Purdy when I saw them take apart the Seahawks. I would argue there are two coaches right now, in 2022/2023//this-season, who excel at putting defenders in conflict, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid.

Next-gen stats (NFL.com):

Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

Brock Purdy has the 2nd lowest rate of aggressiveness in the NFL. He is throwing to wide open targets which is all part of Shanahan's plan. He has the 4th lowest longest completed air distance one behind Jimmy G because neither guy has a cannon and this isn't that kind of offense. He and Jimmy G are bottom 10 guys for average air yards to the sticks. Why? Again it's the scheme. They throw to an open guy, often short of the sticks, who then RACs the other team to death. Guess who has the highest and second highest expected completion % in the NFL? Jimmy G and Purdy! It's the system. I admire the hell out of Kyle Shanahan. I think the guy is brilliant. I put him, McVay, and Andy Reid on a pedestal. I'm not sure how good a QB Purdy is because his situation from the teams he has played, to his surrounding talent, and to his coaching has been perfect or darn near close to it. I think we as fans tend to distill offenses and offensive success to the QB. I want to push back hard against that especially here and in these circumstances.

Shanahan imo deserves coach of the year consideration.
Isn’t the simplest answer that Purdy’s success so far is the result of both Shanahan and his play? Trey Lance looked like shit in Week 1 throwing the ball and we can’t use the young QB excuse with him because Purdy is a rookie who had even less experience . I don’t think anyone is claiming Purdy is some savant or anything but it’s impossible not to be impressed with his performance and the coaching staff who got him ready. How someone divides up the credit is up to the individual but I agree with you that it’s probably more Shanahan than Purdy but I don’t think Purdy should be short changed here. He stepped into a team that was/is primed for a SB run and hasn’t really blinked once.
 

scott bankheadcase

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One other thing Purdy does better than Jimmy is finding those wide open guys under pressure.

Those throws when being blitzed or when protection breaks down I would claim also have a big actual effect in scoring.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/arjunmenon100/status/1615446926740029440


At this point I do think ability to run kyles offense is a talent of its own. Jimmy could do it, but often inconsistently (maybe Brock will be too over a large enough sample). Hoyer couldn’t do it, beathard couldn’t do it, mullens couldn’t do it, Lance? Don’t really know but didn’t come out as fast as Purdy.
 

SMU_Sox

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He has done well under pressure, 4th highest Y/AT too btw, but we're talking about 69 dropbacks in a stat that has a lot of volatility in it. Which isn't to take away from anything but I can't wait to see Purdy next year. How much of this is a flash in the pan? How much will last a long time?

When was the last time we saw a team as loaded as the 49ers at the skill positions?

Even their 3rd and 4th pieces at WR are useful. Jennings is a very good zone beater and gives you size and strength. He is a good blocker too. Gray is a speed demon. I want to say maybe the 2001 Rams in terms of number of elite or near elite players at WR, RB, and TE? 49ers have Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and CMC. Juzydiufyigusdiugyfigu is also great as a FB/TE hybrid. What say you SOSH?
 

trekfan55

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He should be hitting wide open guys but to me his success is more a credit to Kyle Shanahan and his roster than him somehow being a savant.

I do not think he is that much, 10 points, better than Jimmy G on offense. Let's also look at the defensive points per drive rank of who the 49ers have played starting with Miami:

Miami: 2.17, 27th
Tampa: 1.86, 12th
Seattle: 2.11, 22nd
Washington: 1.72, 6th
Vegas: 2.34, 30th
Arizona: 2.39, 31st
Seattle: 2.11, 22nd.

We're talking 7 games and 5 of those are against bottom 10 defenses.

With EPA per play we can measure their expected point differences and multiply that by the average number of plays and it is 0.240 per play for Jimmy G vs 0.269 for Purdy. So 0.029 points per play better. Over the course of a 70 snap game Purdy is around 2 points better than Jimmy G.

He is middle of the pack throwing deep, 11.5% of the time and that's an upgrade over Jimmy G for sure who is always at the shallow end of that swimming pool.

I suppose for me it's more when I watch the 49ers I see a good offensive line and then basically pro-bowler caliber talent at skill positions combined with a fantastic coach. I was marveling at Kyle Shanahan and not Purdy when I saw them take apart the Seahawks. I would argue there are two coaches right now, in 2022/2023//this-season, who excel at putting defenders in conflict, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid.

Next-gen stats (NFL.com):

Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

Brock Purdy has the 2nd lowest rate of aggressiveness in the NFL. He is throwing to wide open targets which is all part of Shanahan's plan. He has the 4th lowest longest completed air distance one behind Jimmy G because neither guy has a cannon and this isn't that kind of offense. He and Jimmy G are bottom 10 guys for average air yards to the sticks. Why? Again it's the scheme. They throw to an open guy, often short of the sticks, who then RACs the other team to death. Guess who has the highest and second highest expected completion % in the NFL? Jimmy G and Purdy! It's the system. I admire the hell out of Kyle Shanahan. I think the guy is brilliant. I put him, McVay, and Andy Reid on a pedestal. I'm not sure how good a QB Purdy is because his situation from the teams he has played, to his surrounding talent, and to his coaching has been perfect or darn near close to it. I think we as fans tend to distill offenses and offensive success to the QB. I want to push back hard against that especially here and in these circumstances.

Shanahan imo deserves coach of the year consideration.
Here's the thing. Brock Purdy may not be a future hall of famer, but he has risen to the occasion.

And while I appreciate it all the stats and everything that shows his arm may not be good enough or anything else, those are stats we need to think about for the 2023 season. In the meantime, he has shown several things that Jimmy G did not have, like adapting when the play is broken. He made two passes in the Seahawks game that me and my kids call a "Mahomada" (a Mahomes play with Spanish thrown in). The pass to Mitchell was one and the one Aiyuk barely dropped was another, it was a highlight we might see over and over. Shanahan and Lynch have been getting all the parts necessary for their great offense, but they need a good QB to run it. Purdy has proven to be more than just a system QB, but he has proven he can run Shanahan's system.

That being said, he is facing a much better defense than any other he faced since he got this job. Let's see how they do. I am already nervous for this game, I have to admit.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Here's the thing. Brock Purdy may not be a future hall of famer, but he has risen to the occasion.

And while I appreciate it all the stats and everything that shows his arm may not be good enough or anything else, those are stats we need to think about for the 2023 season. In the meantime, he has shown several things that Jimmy G did not have, like adapting when the play is broken. He made two passes in the Seahawks game that me and my kids call a "Mahomada" (a Mahomes play with Spanish thrown in). The pass to Mitchell was one and the one Aiyuk barely dropped was another, it was a highlight we might see over and over. Shanahan and Lynch have been getting all the parts necessary for their great offense, but they need a good QB to run it. Purdy has proven to be more than just a system QB, but he has proven he can run Shanahan's system.

That being said, he is facing a much better defense than any other he faced since he got this job. Let's see how they do. I am already nervous for this game, I have to admit.
Very nervous. Agreed.
 

SMU_Sox

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I get why you all are nervous vs the Cowboys but I expect a comfortable 49ers win. Wouldn't be surprised if it got close to a double-digit win. I think the defense is going to put Dak under pressure all day and could lead to turnovers. Vegas has the game at -3.5 and I like those odds. The premium sites I use have SF as a -3.9 to a -5.6 point favorites.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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He has done well under pressure, 4th highest Y/AT too btw, but we're talking about 69 dropbacks in a stat that has a lot of volatility in it. Which isn't to take away from anything but I can't wait to see Purdy next year. How much of this is a flash in the pan? How much will last a long time?

When was the last time we saw a team as loaded as the 49ers at the skill positions?

Even their 3rd and 4th pieces at WR are useful. Jennings is a very good zone beater and gives you size and strength. He is a good blocker too. Gray is a speed demon. I want to say maybe the 2001 Rams in terms of number of elite or near elite players at WR, RB, and TE? 49ers have Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and CMC. Juzydiufyigusdiugyfigu is also great as a FB/TE hybrid. What say you SOSH?
Maybe this further illustrates your point about how loaded the 49ers are - if Jennings was on the Patriots this season, where would he have ranked in their WR depth? I'd guess he'd be a starter in New England and on more than a few other teams.

Agreed on your overall point - they seem to have players opposing teams need to game-plan for at each of their skill positions. Also, is it possible that a player like Purdy being thrown into duty and then executing at a high level gives opposing teams more of an issue? They have little tape on him so picking apart his game has to be tough at this stage.
 

Al Zarilla

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I don't think you have to game plan for Purdy. He's doing a lot of things very well, like getting out of trouble to either his right or left side and completing passes instead of getting sacked. He's also been accurate overall. He seems to know the offense very well. I'm not sure I've seen him have to take a timeout because he wasn't sure of everything that's supposed to happen on a play. That's great for a rookie. I'd still say he's a vanilla quarterback. Maybe the best vanilla you've had in a while, but still vanilla. Now, the Gelato, Spumoni guys like Allen and Mahomes...different story. You may put a spy on Allen because he can be such a devastating runner. Mahomes, you may just have to kidnap him. No, outside of a spy, I don't know what you do special for him. Keep him contained between the tackles? Good luck.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Couple things:

1. one of the reasons Purdy is being overhyped in the media to a degree is that he IS a 7th round rookie and, at the very least, his numbers are slightly better than Jimmy. Again, crushing any and all expectations game.
Of course he's going to be overhyped. Dude is basically the first QB since Tom Brady to be so unknown he doesn't even have a true rookie card.

Man wins a few SB's, his rookie card is going to be in the Brady/Lebron/Trout pantheon.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't think you have to game plan for Purdy. He's doing a lot of things very well, like getting out of trouble to either his right or left side and completing passes instead of getting sacked. He's also been accurate overall. He seems to know the offense very well. I'm not sure I've seen him have to take a timeout because he wasn't sure of everything that's supposed to happen on a play. That's great for a rookie. I'd still say he's a vanilla quarterback. Maybe the best vanilla you've had in a while, but still vanilla. Now, the Gelato, Spumoni guys like Allen and Mahomes...different story. You may put a spy on Allen because he can be such a devastating runner. Mahomes, you may just have to kidnap him. No, outside of a spy, I don't know what you do special for him. Keep him contained between the tackles? Good luck.
Agreed and to be clear, I wasn't suggesting that Purdy needs to be planned around. I was simply wondering if the absence of a lot of film of him works in the 9ers favor. I am guessing its mixed given how his lack of experience also limits their play calling.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I don’t think Purdy is anything special, and I think the Niners would be foolish to cement him as the 2023 starter without exploring upgrades and having a genuine camp competition, but he is a big win for the Niners. He is playing competently enough at a time when they were out of options at QB and otherwise had a SB caliber roster, and they can decisively move on from Jimmy G for a sizable cash and cap savings.
 

scott bankheadcase

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I don’t think Purdy is anything special, and I think the Niners would be foolish to cement him as the 2023 starter without exploring upgrades and having a genuine camp competition, but he is a big win for the Niners. He is playing competently enough at a time when they were out of options at QB and otherwise had a SB caliber roster, and they can decisively move on from Jimmy G for a sizable cash and cap savings.
I agree with most of this. My only caveat is to say I'm not sure if he's anything special yet, instead of he isn't. I say that because the kid is literally yet to fail. This might be the last week I can say that, but he hasn't had a single failure since entering a game in the 1st quarter vs a surging at the time Dolphins team. And he's not just winning because of the defense, he's putting up 35 points a game.

All that said, Lance should be healthy by training camp (and most of OTAs). Let two cheap options fight it out while continuing to spend on weapons on both sides of the ball.
 

trekfan55

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I don’t think Purdy is anything special, and I think the Niners would be foolish to cement him as the 2023 starter without exploring upgrades and having a genuine camp competition, but he is a big win for the Niners. He is playing competently enough at a time when they were out of options at QB and otherwise had a SB caliber roster, and they can decisively move on from Jimmy G for a sizable cash and cap savings.
Purdy came through when the Niners were absolutely out of options and played at an extremely high level.

The Niners were 6-4 going into the Miami game, were not guaranteed to win their division, and he delivered. Plenty of teams have fallen by the wayside after losing their QB to injury. Some have managed to thrive under the backup, few (if any) managed this after losing their QB1 and QB2. The 9ers will have an interesting problem if they get to or win the Super Bowl with Purdy (maybe they already have that problem now). But I do agree that giving the job to him over Lance with no competition would be stupid. The good thing is they are both under rookie contracts.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Couple things:

1. one of the reasons Purdy is being overhyped in the media to a degree is that he IS a 7th round rookie and, at the very least, his numbers are slightly better than Jimmy. Again, crushing any and all expectations game.

2. Noise or not (I believe it's not as Purdy is a better QB from 10 yards and deeper than Jimmy and the numbers bear this out), the numbers show this offense is 10 points better with now almost an entire half season sample size (which is still too small, but it's what we have).

Purdy is opening up the entire offense because he can open up downfield, releasing all of Kyle's playbook. on throws 20+ Jimmy was 8 of 28 (1 TD 1 INT). Purdy is 5 of 13 (4 TDs, 1 INT). Between 10-19 yards? Jimmy 37-59. Purdy 31-39.

The eyes also tell me that Purdy is making off schedule plays and finding those weapons. In the red zone Jimmy did a lot of 1 read and then panic. Purdy is hitting all his progressions (as the CMC and Mitchell tds on Saturday showed).

He's still a rookie of course and he might not be all that great (his arm strength is meh, though his recognition and running the offense makes up for it). Is this all the weapons around him?

Very well could be. Of course what opened the whole offense up was CMC coming over, a trade those athletic guys didn't like (and I believe will be a fantastically terrible take by them).

I think mainly I just bristle at the "He's only hitting wide open guys!!!!!!!!" take. I mean, what else should he be doing? Credit Kyle if we want, but I watched Jimmy shrink in the Playoffs year after year and then I watched Purdy go for 300 and 4 tds without a pick. It's 1 game and a short season, so I can't argue we know enough and he's great. Hell, I'm super worried about Dallas' D and won't be shocked if the Niners get beat. I just know that the O is 10 points better when he's actually "just throwing to the wide open guys".
I think the easiest answer to a lot of this is:

People have been overestimating how good Jimmy G. is for years.

IMO, saying "Purdy is slightly better than Jimmy G." isn't necessarily the compliment a lot of others believe it is.

Put Jimmy G. in a different organization, without the coaching and offensive line and weapons around him, and he's just another guy at best, IMO.
 

JCizzle

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I think the easiest answer to a lot of this is:

People have been overestimating how good Jimmy G. is for years.

IMO, saying "Purdy is slightly better than Jimmy G." isn't necessarily the compliment a lot of others believe it is.

Put Jimmy G. in a different organization, without the coaching and offensive line and weapons around him, and he's just another guy at best, IMO.
I've watched just about every Jimmy snap in a 49ers uniform and agree with you. On the plus side, Jimmy has a great release. He gets it out incredibly fast and I think that shows up in his completions over the middle. On the negative, he (to my eye) became fixated with his first read, lacked mobility post-ACL, and didn't push it down field. Purdy fixes those three faults to varying degrees of success and has a similar release. He's not superman, but he is also a slightly better Jimmy thus far.

The hope was that Trey would be all of that with a plus arm and plus mobility, but I think Kyle fell in love with his overrated mobility (more like Dak or Tannehill rather than Fields?) at the expense of developing the passing aspects of his game.
 
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Dallas is the best team Purdy will have faced yet. (Miami at the time they played is the only other opponent that’s really close.) I think we’ll learn quite a bit about him beyond what we’ve already seen.
 

OldeBeanTowne

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I get why you all are nervous vs the Cowboys but I expect a comfortable 49ers win. Wouldn't be surprised if it got close to a double-digit win. I think the defense is going to put Dak under pressure all day and could lead to turnovers. Vegas has the game at -3.5 and I like those odds. The premium sites I use have SF as a -3.9 to a -5.6 point favorites.
This is exactly the way I feel about this game. Dak can be had. Unless Parsons destroys the game, I can easily see a double digit 49ers win.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Wow. On the one hand that was a slog (great job D). Not super impressive on offense (cowboys got a ton of pressure without blitzing).

On the other hand if you told me when Jimmy was being carted off (or maybe even when Trey was) that the niners would be rolling into the NFC Championship Game, I wouldn’t have believed it.

An interesting and possibly magical season here.
 

SMU_Sox

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This is exactly the way I feel about this game. Dak can be had. Unless Parsons destroys the game, I can easily see a double digit 49ers win.
Well, if you also made some money today on SF kudos to you. The only game that surprised me was CIN-BUF so far but weather heavily impacted that.