2022 49ers -- Purdy..... Purdy..... Purdy Good

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
This thread might be a bunch of me talking to myself, but figured I'd give it a shot anyway for what might be an interesting team, especially after yesterday's news.

What we know now:

QB1: Trey Lance
QB2: Jimmy G
QB3: Brock Purdy (How does Nate Sudfeld keep convincing teams to give him money?)

This should be a top 5 D in the league led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. Mooney Ward, if healthy, should be an impact addition and Emanuel Mosely is a very underrated CB, hopefully solidifying what was not a great secondary last season.

Big Q on D: Injuries. Jimmy Ward already out at least 4 games and while the D-Line is very deep, the secondary isn't.

The offense will be a Kyle special again. He has 4 RBs that should all see carries and Lance will also be a huge part of the run game. If that's successful, the O will be successful.

The big Q on O (It's not Lance for me): The OL. Laken Tomlinson was an underrated loss and Alex Mack maybe a bigger one (a Shannahan system hasn't worked well without a top C). McGlinchey is coming off injury and wasn't a great pass blocker to start with (he is very good with the run game however). RG is a late-round rookie starter it seems. This position group might be what sinks Lance and the O this season.

Overall: They should be a playoff team even with an unproven QB. And it's comforting to know that an injury at the QB spot (with someone who does run) won't sink the season as Jimmy G can win games.

Week 1 will be a nice look at Lance against a Bears team he should be able to handle.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
I'll probably end up eating these words, but I'm extremely encouraged by the passing options this year. Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk should be a great trio, but I've been especially encouraged by Danny Gray as a deep threat to take advantage of Lance's arm (relative to Jimmy's) if teams overly focus on the main guys. As you said, Kyle will always lean heavily on the run, but he absolutely has the weapons to open it up.

I'm not a huge fan of the RBs beyond Mitchell, but I figure they'll piece something together after the inevitable injuries. I just hope the running game plan doesn't include much of Lance - he took an absolute beating in limited action last year (e.g. the goal line rushing attempt against Arizona where he got blown up trying to make the edge). Like a lot of young guys, he needs to learn to slide at the expense of a couple yards or a random first down in a second quarter. He's a big dude, but NFL guys will mess you up over time.

Fully agree with your concerns about the OL. I'm pretty pessimistic about it and, despite the weapons, I'm worried how it will impact Lance.

On the defensive side, I think Verrett will be a huge help to the secondary...but as always who knows with his health. He was so important to them in 2020. I think it was smart to not rush him back and shorten his season as much as possible.
 

barclay

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 27, 2006
616
Glad to see that there are other niner fans on the site. I am on board with the above. I add three things: 1) a healthy Kinlaw could make a huge difference; 2) Womack the third may surprise (small but tenacious); 3) I love "the kid" (Drake), although I expect a learning curve. As always, health will determine everything (here's hoping).


PS: am a bit worried about the back story behind the signing of Jimmy. Is it that they are worried about Lance? or that they were enthusiastic about signing JG for so much less? Lots of differing narratives out there.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Perhaps I’m being naive, but I’m taking Shanahan at his word that they had every intention of trading Jimmy, but, maybe because of the injury, nothing materialized.

Then they weren’t going to pay him 23m, but his agent tested the waters and seems there wasn’t a better spot for him than a backup. They get his salary to 6m, he agrees to be an insurance policy and have his choice of teams in the offseason this year.

I don’t think their opinion of Trey has changed. Lots of upside, needs reps. He’s the starter.
 

barclay

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 27, 2006
616
I really hope you are right. SF talk show radio is, well, you know, and the Chronicle is just as bad. Personally I think having JG as back up is a good thing. As for Lance, we will find out soon enough what the story is with him. It would be the height of irony if JG replaces Lance and leads the niners to the SB! but lets not go there...(although I just did..whoops...)
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,939
Arkansas
SF is a Darkhorse SB team I don't trust TB DAL GB and the rams will fade your biggest worry is how will the OG/C hold up
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Kittle is out and it looks like a mudder in Chicago today. Not the best circumstances for Lance to begin his starting tenure.

Hopefully they can run the ball.
 

barclay

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 27, 2006
616
The muddy field and rain concerns me for another reason: injuries. That can derail a season fast. Losing would not be ideal but even if they do but escape without serious injuries thats still a big win.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
Poor showing by Lance. Over his head. Lots of time left for him to adjust. Important season for him.
It's really hard to look good in those conditions. It looked like the game was being played in a shallow lake. Games in somewhat normal conditions will be a better gauge moving forward.
 

Gash Prex

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 18, 2002
6,441
Lance was terrible - I watched that game in the background and both Fields and Lance were laughably bad on even the easy throws .

Lance was 4 for 8 on throws behind the LOS
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
10,295
San Francisco
It's really hard to look good in those conditions. It looked like the game was being played in a shallow lake. Games in somewhat normal conditions will be a better gauge moving forward.
My wife (a 49ers fan) asked me how many losses before they go to Jimmy. I am not really sure, but I figure if they are like 1-3 or 1-4 they would have to think about it. I think the more likely outcome is that it never gets that bad and IF Lance isn't the answer it will cost either Lynch or Shanahan (or both) their jobs.

Lance had some nice runs today, but he just isn't there as a passer yet.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Just want to note that in similar conditions in Washington a couple years back Jimmy G actually played worse than Lance did today.

DeeBo’s fumble, greenlaws penalty and armstead’s missed sack were much more at fault for the loss than Lance.

I still don’t know if Lance is good, and I was never a Jimmy hater (would still be happy with him at QB, but hopeful for Lance), but there’s no way I’m judging Lance on that game. Mitchell goes down early and a bunch of sloppy mistakes happened.

Let’s see how he is on average conditions before labeling him.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
In addition to the weather, the 49ers seem to be the Patriots West this year in that OL is a weakness.
Yes, I was very afraid of it going into the season and that game didn’t assuage my fears.

And when the hope is that undrafted Daniel Brunskill might come back
From his injury…. That’s not much hope.

The line might kill the season.
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
10,295
San Francisco
Just want to note that in similar conditions in Washington a couple years back Jimmy G actually played worse than Lance did today.

DeeBo’s fumble, greenlaws penalty and armstead’s missed sack were much more at fault for the loss than Lance.

I still don’t know if Lance is good, and I was never a Jimmy hater (would still be happy with him at QB, but hopeful for Lance), but there’s no way I’m judging Lance on that game. Mitchell goes down early and a bunch of sloppy mistakes happened.

Let’s see how he is on average conditions before labeling him.
I remember that game; that weather I think was worse and it was all game long. I think Lance will be good; I am just not sure he will be good enough quickly enough to realize Super Bowl dreams.
Lance is a heck of an athlete, but he missed that super easy pass to the tight end when the weather was still decent. He needs to hit those. And I really hope he doesn't keep throwing the interceptions like he did today. That was one of the weaknesses with Jimmy - just a couple of real head-scratcher throws each game.
I am interested to see how the local media (over)reacts to that game.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
I remember that game; that weather I think was worse and it was all game long. I think Lance will be good; I am just not sure he will be good enough quickly enough to realize Super Bowl dreams.
Lance is a heck of an athlete, but he missed that super easy pass to the tight end when the weather was still decent. He needs to hit those. And I really hope he doesn't keep throwing the interceptions like he did today. That was one of the weaknesses with Jimmy - just a couple of real head-scratcher throws each game.
I am interested to see how the local media (over)reacts to that game.
He did miss that pass, but if all-everything Deebo doesn’t fumble that opening possession before the weather got worse and worse it probably changes the complexion of the game too.

I think all I’m saying is, Lance didn’t save them like your hope a top-level QB would, but I also wouldn’t pin that loss on him.
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
10,295
San Francisco
He did miss that pass, but if all-everything Deebo doesn’t fumble that opening possession before the weather got worse and worse it probably changes the complexion of the game too.

I think all I’m saying is, Lance didn’t save them like your hope a top-level QB would, but I also wouldn’t pin that loss on him.
You are 100% right there--that loss isn't on him. He wasn't great, but he wasn't the biggest problem (probably penalties).
It is really unfair to him that they gave up so much for him and anything less than a championship almost has to be considered a letdown. Football is a tough sport.

Edit - and I think Jimmy G and his horrible day still beat Washington that day, 9-0. Jimmy just seemed to win with the 49ers.
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
6,969
Niners next few games: Seattle at home, @Denver, Rams at home on Monday night, @Carolina, @Atlanta, KC at home and @LAR. Then a bye.

There's really no great time to move to Jimmy G in that mix. You want to let Lance try to find his footing against the crappy teams and you don't want to throw Jimmy G to the wolves v the Rams or KC.

i think Lance plays unless he gets hurt.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Mitchell out at least 2 months with an mcl injury.

I wasn’t impressed with Wilson, even in preseason, and think Mason looked better. Let’s see which way they go (even more deebo maybe).
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
Any regrets cutting Trey Sermon?
No. He was less than replacement level, unfortunately. He never demonstrated the ability to decisively hit holes. Maybe he'll find better success in a different running scheme.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Any regrets cutting Trey Sermon?
Bigger regret is not finding a way to keep Hasty. He has been better than Wilson for a couple years and probably deserved the spot.

I also wonder if the only reason Davis-Price was inactive this week was because of the rain. Possibly he becomes the home run hitter Shanahan wants with better conditions. We’ll see.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Still processing but, what a crazy set of circumstances.

I still think Lance can be a big time QB in this league, but not even sure he’ll be healthy next season after than injury. I feel for the kid. 22, just getting your chance after handling everything in this circus about as well as it could be handled, and then this happens through no fault of your own. Just really sucks for someone who seems to be an all-around good kid.

Also, holy shit somehow Jimmy stayed for 6m and we’re not looking at a year of Brock purdy. How the hell did this happen? Somehow the niners are still in decent shape for the season.

For all the shit Shanahan will take for how this all went, he has a probably top 15 QB still helming the team.
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
6,969
Still processing but, what a crazy set of circumstances.

I still think Lance can be a big time QB in this league, but not even sure he’ll be healthy next season after than injury. I feel for the kid. 22, just getting your chance after handling everything in this circus about as well as it could be handled, and then this happens through no fault of your own. Just really sucks for someone who seems to be an all-around good kid.

Also, holy shit somehow Jimmy stayed for 6m and we’re not looking at a year of Brock purdy. How the hell did this happen? Somehow the niners are still in decent shape for the season.

For all the shit Shanahan will take for how this all went, he has a probably top 15 QB still helming the team.
Not $6m any more - closer to double that.

View: https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/1571641725919051780?t=VzHHjhlLuWp4f-tpc_dokw&s=19
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
Still processing but, what a crazy set of circumstances.

I still think Lance can be a big time QB in this league, but not even sure he’ll be healthy next season after than injury. I feel for the kid. 22, just getting your chance after handling everything in this circus about as well as it could be handled, and then this happens through no fault of your own. Just really sucks for someone who seems to be an all-around good kid.

Also, holy shit somehow Jimmy stayed for 6m and we’re not looking at a year of Brock purdy. How the hell did this happen? Somehow the niners are still in decent shape for the season.

For all the shit Shanahan will take for how this all went, he has a probably top 15 QB still helming the team.
Co-sign on all of this. I feel awful for Lance, such a gut punch after he finally got the chance to prove it at the NFL level.

They'll be fine with Jimmy, but they swung on Lance for a reason - to raise the team's ceiling. They can make a run without him, but with Jimmy everything else pretty much needs to align. We've seen in recent years how that gets harder and harder the further you advance.
 

NDame616

will bailey
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
2,055
As much as this sucks for Lance, what a lotto ticket for Jimmy. Yes he will double his 2022 salary, but another good (for him) season and he will be looking at what, 30M guaranteed?
 

trekfan55

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 29, 2004
9,552
Panama
It's amazing the kind of flack trey Lance had been getting prior to his injury.

And then the kind of flack Shanahan got for the play that got him injured.

Shanahan is not the perfect coach but he has gotten the Niners to one Super Bowl and and NFC Championship Game and he and Lynch bet a lot on Trey Lance (and got him while they still have a good core). Trey Lance starts one game in a monsoon and everyone starts saying he needs to be benched or is about to be benched. Then reports that teammates are happier with Jimmy G at the helm.

All that being said, It is incredibly lucky that the Niners did not trade Jimmy, or could not trade Jimmy G. That kind of backup QB is a luxury few teams have in today's NFL.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
29,481
I think Kyle is getting too much flak with people linking him to RGIII's situation (much more than just Kyle), but I do find it odd to constantly run a QB between the tackles. Injury risk has to be much higher than cutting to the sideline type of runs.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
I think Kyle is getting too much flak with people linking him to RGIII's situation (much more than just Kyle), but I do find it odd to constantly run a QB between the tackles. Injury risk has to be much higher than cutting to the sideline type of runs.
Kyle, correctly IMO, pointed out that Josh Allen runs in a similar manner and injuries are just an unfortunate reality of the game. The context that Kyle left out of his justification (the frequency of the runs) was smartly pointed out by Marcus Thompson of the Athletic. Allen was running on 1 of ~4 dropbacks as a rookie, and it's now closer to 1 of ~5. Through four starts, Lance was running on 1 of ~3 dropbacks. That's a crazy punishment for someone kinda close to Allen's size, but probably 20-30 pounds lighter. I think that Kyle - again, probably correctly - felt that running Trey was the best way to win games this year with a SB ready roster. However, the resulting impact to Lance's development is pretty big and, in my opinion, they should've been willing to accept short term struggles for long term development.

In my opinion, the mistake was treating him like Allen and not like Mahomes (NOT comparing talent level here). Mahomes is almost entirely pass-first with the ability to kill you on 2-3 scrambles a game when everything breaks down. That's the ideal approach for almost every mobile QB to me - the legs are simply an added plus for broken plays, not something to rely on for scripted runs or options.

In any case, it seems like the injury wasn't a total worst case scenario.

 
Last edited:

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
56,627
San Andreas Fault
Kyle, correctly IMO, pointed out that Josh Allen runs in a similar manner and injuries are just an unfortunate reality of the game. The context that Kyle left out of his justification (the frequency of the runs) was smartly pointed out by Marcus Thompson of the Athletic. Allen was running on 1 of ~4 dropbacks as a rookie, and it's now closer to 1 of ~5. Through four starts, Lance was running on 1 of ~3 dropbacks. That's a crazy punishment for someone kinda close to Allen's size, but probably 20-30 pounds lighter. I think that Kyle - again, probably correctly - felt that running Trey was the best way to win games this year with a SB ready roster. However, the resulting impact to Lance's development is pretty big and, in my opinion, they should've been willing to accept short term struggles for long term development.

In my opinion, the mistake was treating him like Allen and not like Mahomes (NOT comparing talent level here). Mahomes is almost entirely pass-first with the ability to kill you on 2-3 scrambles a game when everything breaks down. That's the ideal approach for almost every mobile QB to me - the legs are simply an added plus for broken plays, not something to rely on for scripted runs or options.

In any case, it seems like the injury wasn't a total worst case scenario.

I pointed out in another thread that Josh Allen is 6'5 237, much bigger than Lance. When Josh gets among the linebackers in his runs, it's easy to see that he's just as big as they are! I'm not a Bills fan, but if I were, I don't know if I'd even fear the guy getting into those guys' dens. I think Kyle is foolish implying that if Josh Allen can run in there with a modicum of safety, it's OK to send his present or future franchise QB in there too.
 

Cotillion

lurker
Jun 11, 2019
3,695
As Belichick once said in answer to these injury questions "let me know the play/practice rep a guy will get injured on and I'll pick a different one that time" paraphrasing...
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
5,626
Imaginationland
I pointed out in another thread that Josh Allen is 6'5 237, much bigger than Lance. When Josh gets among the linebackers in his runs, it's easy to see that he's just as big as they are! I'm not a Bills fan, but if I were, I don't know if I'd even fear the guy getting into those guys' dens. I think Kyle is foolish implying that if Josh Allen can run in there with a modicum of safety, it's OK to send his present or future franchise QB in there too.
Even if the immediate threat of injury to a QB that size (Allen) is less than the threat to a smaller QB (Lance), it's still a bad idea to have him running between the tackles in September. Cam Newton is Allen's size (a few pounds heavier) and perhaps the most bruising mobile QB in history. He was successful for awhile, good enough to win an MVP and get his team to the super bowl. Then he broke down and he was done as a pro-bowl level player before he turned 30, and at 33, is out of the NFL altogether. That's excellent for a RB, but today we expect good QBs to play at a high level at least until their mid 30s.

Newton ran slightly more often than Allen (Newton averaged 128 carries per 17 games, compared with 118 carries per 17 games for Allen), but in the longterm, Buffalo needs to be careful with how often they call his number. Being big won't keep him from breaking down earlier than you'd hope for a pro bowl QB.
 

macal

lurker
Jul 31, 2005
62
I think Buffalo are a good enough team currently that they don't need Allen to run in every game. Save it for the playoffs, or a regular season game with some importance (need a win to secure a bye etc.). They can maximize their chances of winning a SB, while at the same time minimizing the injury/break down risk.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
14,787
New York City
Even if the immediate threat of injury to a QB that size (Allen) is less than the threat to a smaller QB (Lance), it's still a bad idea to have him running between the tackles in September. Cam Newton is Allen's size (a few pounds heavier) and perhaps the most bruising mobile QB in history. He was successful for awhile, good enough to win an MVP and get his team to the super bowl. Then he broke down and he was done as a pro-bowl level player before he turned 30, and at 33, is out of the NFL altogether. That's excellent for a RB, but today we expect good QBs to play at a high level at least until their mid 30s.

Newton ran slightly more often than Allen (Newton averaged 128 carries per 17 games, compared with 118 carries per 17 games for Allen), but in the longterm, Buffalo needs to be careful with how often they call his number. Being big won't keep him from breaking down earlier than you'd hope for a pro bowl QB.
I'm so on board with this. I keep hearing people say versions of its fine to run Allen because he's so big and strong, or running Lance isn't like running murray/Jackson. But even if you're 240 or 250 getting hit by NFL players hurts. Newton's career wasn't that long. Gronk was as big as they come at tight end and he didn't have a particularly long career. Christian Okoye had a short career. Etc, etc.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
2,355
hoboken
Well, still not sure about the offense, but this might be the best D in the league.

Ward/Mosely are both above average corners, Tufanga is showing he might be a pro-bowler and they don't even have Jimmy Ward back in the secondary yet. Giving this D line an extra second because you can actually cover guys is going to be game-wrecking for teams, because the D-Line, and especially Nick Bosa, are relentless. That's a recipe for 6 or 7 sacks a game, which is what happened last night.

If Jimmy G just doesn't turn the ball over much, this team can still make a lot of noise.
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Dope
Mar 19, 2004
14,495
Missoula, MT
I thought Jimmy played pretty well last night. No turnovers, some nice throws, some not so nice throws, and got rid of the ball instead of taking sacks when he needed to do so.

I also thought SF gameplanned away from Ramsey and that worked out well. If Shan can figure out how to get Kittle and Jus more involved, this offense can be top 5, IMO.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
56,525
That’s weird. LT was a huge star. Why wouldn’t the NFL want a big name player from a historic franchise terrorizing QBs. I’d tune in for that.