2020 Pats Off-Season: General/Non-QB Discussion

mcpickl

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Go with Stidham. Change the offense to suit the way he plays. Get more speed and athletic players and start to turn over that aging defense. The sooner they break this down the better off they will be in the long run. Hanging on to false hope gets teams in trouble. As BB has said its better to get rid of players a year early than a year late.
So, instead of keeping Brady and remaining competitive, or tanking in hopes of hitting on a Brady replacement in the draft, you want to turn it over to Stidham in hopes of being likely mediocre?

Splitting the difference feels like far and away the worst of those three scenarios.

They're allowed to add speed and athleticism whether Brady is here or not, because that's mostly a draft thing. It's not like they're going to go out and spend the Brady savings on some young, speedy, athletic free agents that'll help them win a future Super Bowl. Because it's likely by the time Stidham is ready to win a Super Bowl, if he ever is, those young, speedy, athletic free agents you signed will now likely have aged into old guys you're complaining about.
 

jsinger121

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Where are people getting this 5 years bullshit?

The team the Pats beat in the Super Bowl last year were 4-12 two seasons earlier.

The Eagles went from last place 4-12 to winning the Super Bowl in 5 years. They won a division title and went to the playoffs the year after the last place finish.

This is the NFL. Well-run teams can rebuild quickly.
This. 5 year rebuilds don't happen when you have smart people running things. They take 5 plus years when you are run by morons like Mike Brown or Jimmy Haslem.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The hyperbole of the team is done is a bit premature. If they can acquire a WR that allows Edelman to not be doubled every time it improves not 1 but 3 spots. The upgrade at that WR position, Edelman doesn't get doubled, and White gets a more favorable matchup. Add in even an average TE and the offense looks a heck of a lot better.
As the Spartans famously said: "If."
 

Super Nomario

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They're allowed to add speed and athleticism whether Brady is here or not, because that's mostly a draft thing. It's not like they're going to go out and spend the Brady savings on some young, speedy, athletic free agents that'll help them win a future Super Bowl. Because it's likely by the time Stidham is ready to win a Super Bowl, if he ever is, those young, speedy, athletic free agents you signed will now likely have aged into old guys you're complaining about.
This is my thinking. They need to hit on draft picks. They need to develop the young players they've already drafted. If they do this well, they will position themselves well for whoever is QB next year (probably Brady) and whoever is QB beyond that. If they do this poorly, they will position themselves poorly for whoever is playing. I don't see how deciding to embark on a rebuilding effort accelerates this process. Draft well, develop well, sign smart, get better.
 

nighthob

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Got it. Response made it seem like it was based on something I said. I obviously agree we’re not getting Lawrence unless it’s the nuclear situation where both Belichick and Brady leave.
Or the Bengals trade their 2020 #3 and 2021 #1 for New England’s first this year and then completely Bengal the 2020 season. Which definitely has a high rate of probability. (The Bengals Bengaling the 2020 season, not the trade.)

Alternatively they could trade for Joe Burrow in April of ‘21 as the Bengals get ready to draft Lawrence...
 

nighthob

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I can’t see any team giving Brady a multiple year offer. Would Tom even consider starting in a new system with new coaches? Would a team want to accommodate a 43 year old QB besides the Patriots? It ultimately comes down to what Robert Kraft wants. If he wants TB12 back, he will be back.
I’ve gone back and forth on this, and I think I could see the Chargers owing it if they decide to draft Tua as their QB of the future and want him to carry clipboards for the GOAT for a couple of years first (especially as he won’t be playing in 2020 anyway). Which would make the 2020 Chargers Unitas 2: Electric Boogaloo.
 

Eddie Jurak

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This is my thinking. They need to hit on draft picks. They need to develop the young players they've already drafted. If they do this well, they will position themselves well for whoever is QB next year (probably Brady) and whoever is QB beyond that. If they do this poorly, they will position themselves poorly for whoever is playing. I don't see how deciding to embark on a rebuilding effort accelerates this process. Draft well, develop well, sign smart, get better.
Who was the last young WR who developed under Brady? Edelman? There have been very few over the years.
 

8slim

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The problem is Bill has never gotten Tom a real WR. Outside of Cooks, who isn’t even that good, when has Bill gone all in on a big time WR? Thinking this is the year it finally happens is foolish.

and yes I know Randy Moss but he was a head case who everyone thought was finished. I’m talking about going all out to get an OBJ type the last few years when the team desperately needed a top WR. Like imagine if Brady has Julio or Hopkins or Michael Thomas. The offense needs a game changer badly.
So he never got a “real” WR aside from the two times you noted? Why on earth would you not count Cooks? Or when he got AB this year. Or Welker. Or Lloyd. But never.
 

Euclis20

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Who was the last young WR who developed under Brady? Edelman? There have been very few over the years.
Malcolm Mitchell is really the only one this decade. His numbers as a rookie (32 catches, 401 yards and 4 TDs) are pretty similar to the combined numbers for Harry and Meyers this year (38 catches, 464 yards and 2 TDs), and his final game was an excellent performance in SB 51. Truly a shame about his knee, it would have been fun to watch him grow.
 

brandonchristensen

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If Belichick goes into Kraft's office (both Robert and Jonathan) and tells them "Look, from a football perspective, I want Brady as my QB in 2020. Stidham has a ways to go, and anyone else available out there is likely to not be significantly better. I didn't do a great job getting him a supporting cast on offense. However, he's also going to be 43, and we have a lot of holes to fill as well. My cap guy tells me we can allocate this much for him in 2020 and 2021. I'm willing to do a bit more, but not much. But if he wants to be the highest paid QB in the league next year, there's no way we can fit him in and field a competitive team.".... I have to believe the Krafts say "understood" and do their best to work out a new deal, but also respect Belichick's parameters and would be willing to wish Brady well if moving on is the only recourse. I've seen zero evidence outside ESPN that the Krafts will try to overrule Belichick.
This is my head canon.
 

Super Nomario

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Who was the last young WR who developed under Brady? Edelman? There have been very few over the years.
They've generally preferred to invest in veterans at WR and used little draft capital. But that market's gotten crazy expensive. I think the Harry pick was a concession to that reality.
 

broncoman

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2 choices

A sign brady to a 2y 50 million get OBJ growk and go for it but after 2021 u will have a 3-5 year reset
B let brady go hope stimem can grow and by 2022 be back
 

pappymojo

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Pats get the 23rd pick in the first round. Sorry to double post, saw the other thread first but think this one is more appropriate.
 

tims4wins

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Pats get the 23rd pick in the first round. Sorry to double post, saw the other thread first but think this one is more appropriate.
And my reply is probably more appropriate here - they drafted Wynn at 23 in 2018.

Generally speaking, I think there is a good deal more talent that seems to be available at 23 vs 32
 

DJnVa

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Is there a difference in the 2 threads that both have "2020 Pats Off-Season" in the title? There's Brady talk in both and points are being repeated.
 

Shelterdog

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This is my thinking. They need to hit on draft picks. They need to develop the young players they've already drafted. If they do this well, they will position themselves well for whoever is QB next year (probably Brady) and whoever is QB beyond that. If they do this poorly, they will position themselves poorly for whoever is playing. I don't see how deciding to embark on a rebuilding effort accelerates this process. Draft well, develop well, sign smart, get better.
I think that's right--and I think it's right for pretty much all teams in virtually all circumstances with the possible exception of your team is godawful and has no QB and Elway or Luck are available in the draft that year.

You need a ton of good players to be good and players turn over so quickly through age/free agency/injury that you constantly have to add talent. Do your best to create a well balanced team using the draft, UDFAs, waivers, value free agents, and in rare circumstances top end free agency.
 

Bergs

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You can blame gronk for us being in that position with his delayed retirement costing us Jared cook.
Late I know, but Gronk didn't trade Hollister for a 7th round draft pick. That move sucked at the time and it sucks now. It's like Gronk broke BB's ability to recognize useful TEs.

As for TB12, I want him back, because when given time and even league average skill players, he's a beast. As someone upthread mentioned, he does not cause his team to lose football games. There is still no other QB in the NFL better at taking care of the ball and making smart decisions. If AB wasn't such a fucking moron, we would be hosting (and likely winning) a playoff game next week.

This run may be over, and if so, I will be perfectly content, because it's been an absolutely amazing ride. But it may not be over, and I'd hate to cut bait after a 12-4 season that featured a slew of injuries and other weirdness.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The more I look at things the more I think that the Patriots could actually be real players in free agency, assuming Brady comes back and they want to compete in 2020. The cap picture for 2020 is relatively tight if you factor in a Brady contract. But they have so few commitments for 2021 and beyond that it would be very easy to swallow a free agent contract structure that kicks money into future years. In 2021, they have only $79M in cap commitments right now (obv a bit more with a Brady contract that goes beyond 2020) for a cap that will likely be in the $210-215M range. They've also drafted poorly enough that they just don't have a lot of young players coming up for free agency that are must resigns at substantial numbers. This is particularly true for the next (2021) offseason, which corresponds to the free agency of the pretty much completely barren 2017 draft class. But its likely to be fairly true in the 2022 offseason as well. Finally, whenever Brady does finally step away we know that the team is likely to go through a period with a low-to-moderate QB cap allotment.

The smart move to me looks like trying to compete at the top of the market if you can get a player in a position of need for 2020 that will also be young enough to be a long term cornerstone. Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper (both 25) are both pretty obvious fits at TE. This also makes me wonder whether they might just want to swallow the bitter pill and try to resign Thuney.

Basically, if they're not competing for these kinds of players in the 2020 offseason, its not really clear how they actually spend to the cap in 2021 and beyond, beyond just throwing money around like drunken sailors when we get there.
 

DJnVa

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Late I know, but Gronk didn't trade Hollister for a 7th round draft pick. That move sucked at the time and it sucks now. It's like Gronk broke BB's ability to recognize useful TEs.
Eh.

Hollister: 41 for 349
Lacosse/Watson: 30 for 304

There's more to it than that, but the issues this year wouldn't have been all that much better with Jacob Hollister running routes. Lacosse and Watson both averaged more yards/target and their combined per game numbers were nearly the same. It's not like we dealt away some guy that ended up with 50 catches for 600 yards.
 

SMU_Sox

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My own concern about Hunter Henry is that I think his blocking is sub-par in both pass pro and run blocking. I am not even sure he is in pass pro that much anyway. He is a great receiver but not sure BB would pay top dollar for a TE with his blocking skill-set.

How is Hooper's blocking?

Dwayne Allen was hurt this year (rehabbing in the season still from an off-season knee surgery). I could see him signing a cheap deal to be a camp body here. They kept Izzo because he could, in theory, block for cheap. Dwayne Allen, pending his health, could probably sign for the amount Izzo is making and actually execute a block or two.
 

pappymojo

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Kyle Van Noy is a free agent and wants to get paid. I will assume he is gone next year. Might get a comp pick in two years.
 

DJnVa

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Hollister is on the books for $645k. Watson and LaCosse were about $4 million.
Fine---where was that $3.4 going to be more useful? They could have always created space had they truly needed it.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather pay less money for the same production, but I'm just saying that's far down the list.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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My own concern about Hunter Henry is that I think his blocking is sub-par in both pass pro and run blocking. I am not even sure he is in pass pro that much anyway. He is a great receiver but not sure BB would pay top dollar for a TE with his blocking skill-set.

How is Hooper's blocking?

Dwayne Allen was hurt this year (rehabbing in the season still from an off-season knee surgery). I could see him signing a cheap deal to be a camp body here. They kept Izzo because he could, in theory, block for cheap. Dwayne Allen, pending his health, could probably sign for the amount Izzo is making and actually execute a block or two.
I don't much of an opinion on either Henry or Hooper's blocking skills as I just haven't watch their teams enough. Just from what I've read, it seems like both guys have reps as adequate in line blockers - nothing special but not total liabilities either. But maybe that is wrong.

In general, I think it would be a mistake to make the perfect (a true two way tight end like Gronk) the enemy of the good here. Because if we turn our nose up at the good, we might end up with the pu pu platter of crap again.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don't much of an opinion on either Henry or Hooper's blocking skills as I just haven't watch their teams enough. Just from what I've read, it seems like both guys have reps as adequate in line blockers - nothing special but not total liabilities either. But maybe that is wrong.

In general, I think it would be a mistake to make the perfect (a true two way tight end like Gronk) the enemy of the good here. Because if we turn our nose up at the good, we might end up with the pu pu platter of crap again.
Yeah that's where I'm at. They need an influx of talent at TE that you take the best that you can get as a receiving TE and fill in a blocker. The perfect two-prong TE like Gronk doesn't exist anymore.
 

Captaincoop

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DJnVa

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So...it's not a bad receiving corps, if Harry lives up to 1st round pick potential, they add another good WR, and add a good TE.
That's not exactly what it says. It says the guys they have shouldn't have been as bad a receiving corps as it turned out to be. Reasonable minds may differ.
 

ehaz

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Get LSU's Joe Brady to replace McDaniels, re-sign TB12, get him another weapon at WR.

Interesting FAs: Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Emmanuel Sanders
Possible trade candidates (last year of contract): Marvin Jones Jr, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson
 

Saints Rest

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Lots of if's looking ahead, as there often are, but I'm not sure if any of them are wildly far-fetched.

If . . .
  • they can find a WR1. This moves JE11 back to where he belongs, while allowing Harry to take over as a WR3 where I think he could do some real damage. Ditto Meyers as a WR4.
  • they can find a TE1. Eric Ebron? Tyler Eifert?
  • Andrews can return to full-time.
  • Mason can fix whatever ailed him for the first half of the year.
  • Cajuste can be a starting tackle, either replacing Cannon on the right side, or slotting in at LT while Wynn bumps over to LG to replace Thuney.
Over-The-Cap shows the Pats with $49M in room right now, but there are a bunch of easy cuts which could free up a lot more:
  • Sanu -- saves $6.5M (replace with Gunner)
  • Jason McC -- $4M (replace with Williams)
  • Cannon -- $3.8M (although leaving with $5.1M dead money). Replace with Newhouse (who looked much better at his natural RT) or with Cajuste
  • Bethel -- $2M (replace with draft pick)
  • Lacosse -- $1.4M (replace with Ebron or Eifert)
  • Develin --- $1.25M (replace with Johnson)
  • Brooks -- $1.5M (replace with draft pick)
  • Ghost -- $3.4
That's over $23M in savings with the only money not currently allocated would be for TE1. If you assume $5M cap hit in year one of a multi-year TE1 deal, that would give them just over $65M to fill the following spots:
  • WR1
  • Starting safety (to replace DMac)
  • OLB (to replace Van Noy)
  • K
  • DT (to replace Shelton and Butler)
  • and QB1, which in my view, in light of the above, makes it much more reasonable that you could sign him
 

Seels

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I want this team to stay far far away from AJ Green. AJ Green hasn't been great and healthy in half a decade. Keenan Allen would be an ideal trade candidate if the Chargers would be willing.
 

jsinger121

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Get LSU's Joe Brady to replace McDaniels, re-sign TB12, get him another weapon at WR.

Interesting FAs: Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Emmanuel Sanders
Possible trade candidates (last year of contract): Marvin Jones Jr, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson
If Joe Brady comes to the patriots then Tom Brady is out and you build around a spread offense.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Eh.

Hollister: 41 for 349
Lacosse/Watson: 30 for 304

There's more to it than that, but the issues this year wouldn't have been all that much better with Jacob Hollister running routes. Lacosse and Watson both averaged more yards/target and their combined per game numbers were nearly the same. It's not like we dealt away some guy that ended up with 50 catches for 600 yards.
I agree with the broader point that Hollister isn't "one that got away" but it's worth pointing out that Hollister didn't record his first catch of the season until October 20th. Seattle also uses their TEs much differently than NE. Hollister was a safety valve/dump off guy for Russell, so it's doubtful he would have gotten the 5.3 targets per game he got in Seattle. Still, when average would have been an upgrade over bottom of the barrel, it's annoying to see the guy they cast off put up perfectly average numbers elsewhere.
 

shoosh77

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Lots of if's looking ahead, as there often are, but I'm not sure if any of them are wildly far-fetched.

If . . .
  • they can find a WR1. This moves JE11 back to where he belongs, while allowing Harry to take over as a WR3 where I think he could do some real damage. Ditto Meyers as a WR4.
  • they can find a TE1. Eric Ebron? Tyler Eifert?
  • Andrews can return to full-time.
  • Mason can fix whatever ailed him for the first half of the year.
  • Cajuste can be a starting tackle, either replacing Cannon on the right side, or slotting in at LT while Wynn bumps over to LG to replace Thuney.
Over-The-Cap shows the Pats with $49M in room right now, but there are a bunch of easy cuts which could free up a lot more:
  • Sanu -- saves $6.5M (replace with Gunner)
  • Jason McC -- $4M (replace with Williams)
  • Cannon -- $3.8M (although leaving with $5.1M dead money). Replace with Newhouse (who looked much better at his natural RT) or with Cajuste
  • Bethel -- $2M (replace with draft pick)
  • Lacosse -- $1.4M (replace with Ebron or Eifert)
  • Develin --- $1.25M (replace with Johnson)
  • Brooks -- $1.5M (replace with draft pick)
  • Ghost -- $3.4
That's over $23M in savings with the only money not currently allocated would be for TE1. If you assume $5M cap hit in year one of a multi-year TE1 deal, that would give them just over $65M to fill the following spots:
  • WR1
  • Starting safety (to replace DMac)
  • OLB (to replace Van Noy)
  • K
  • DT (to replace Shelton and Butler)
  • and QB1, which in my view, in light of the above, makes it much more reasonable that you could sign him
Great list and good work. I have to think Sanu and/or Cannon could fetch draft picks vs a straight cut.
 

SMU_Sox

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Lots of if's looking ahead, as there often are, but I'm not sure if any of them are wildly far-fetched.

If . . .
  • they can find a WR1. This moves JE11 back to where he belongs, while allowing Harry to take over as a WR3 where I think he could do some real damage. Ditto Meyers as a WR4.
  • they can find a TE1. Eric Ebron? Tyler Eifert?
  • Andrews can return to full-time.
  • Mason can fix whatever ailed him for the first half of the year.
  • Cajuste can be a starting tackle, either replacing Cannon on the right side, or slotting in at LT while Wynn bumps over to LG to replace Thuney.
Over-The-Cap shows the Pats with $49M in room right now, but there are a bunch of easy cuts which could free up a lot more:
  • Sanu -- saves $6.5M (replace with Gunner)
  • Jason McC -- $4M (replace with Williams)
  • Cannon -- $3.8M (although leaving with $5.1M dead money). Replace with Newhouse (who looked much better at his natural RT) or with Cajuste
  • Bethel -- $2M (replace with draft pick)
  • Lacosse -- $1.4M (replace with Ebron or Eifert)
  • Develin --- $1.25M (replace with Johnson)
  • Brooks -- $1.5M (replace with draft pick)
  • Ghost -- $3.4
That's over $23M in savings with the only money not currently allocated would be for TE1. If you assume $5M cap hit in year one of a multi-year TE1 deal, that would give them just over $65M to fill the following spots:
  • WR1
  • Starting safety (to replace DMac)
  • OLB (to replace Van Noy)
  • K
  • DT (to replace Shelton and Butler)
  • and QB1, which in my view, in light of the above, makes it much more reasonable that you could sign him
I want to add onto this as well as dissect it a bit.

Re the needing a WR1. I don’t think of it as a WR1 but more of an outside guy. Sanu, Edelman, Meyers, and maybe not even Harry are going to perform best outside. You don’t need a burner X receiver or even a great one but someone who can run the routes well and get on the same page as Brady. You need a competent if not spectacular X receiver. That lets people play in their best spots.
I think Harry was the right idea of a potential versatile guy and someone who can play outside but he was injured and a rookie. I’d also argue that Harry might have not been the right guy but... that doesn’t matter now.
I think Edelman can be a #1 like Welker was a #1. With Sanu I wonder if it’s just his timing because he gets separation In many of his routes but the throws to him are off. Also, that ankle and pushing off it on breaks has got to limit him. No excuses for the drops.
You can save some cash by cutting Sanu but he’s been a reliable producer in 2 stops. He had a good game against Baltimore and got hurt. I think he’s the kind of guy you want to keep for a year and see if his chemistry builds with Brady. I don’t think he’s cut before camp.
My biggest objection is that I don’t think Gunner is anywhere near ready to be a 600-800 yards a season guy. He’s a cool story and I like his potential and versatility but he had 2 receptions for 34 yards. It’s way too optimistic imo that a guy with 2 career receptions can replace a guy with over 400. It will be hard to carry Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers, and Gunner because they will need to add another guy who can play X.

I have no idea what they do at tight end. I can’t stress how much a good blocker seam buster would help in the red zone.

Hands off Bethel. He’s an elite STer. Slater might retire. Bethel is worth every penny of that 2M.

Sanu and Burkhead are the easiest guys trade or maybe Cannon but you’d be selling low on him.
 

McBride11

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If Joe Brady comes to the patriots then Tom Brady is out and you build around a spread offense.
I was told repeatedly during the CFB playoffs that Burrow was just like Brady and they could do the same things!

I think I would like Cooper as that big outside guy, but worried is gonna cost too much.
Sanders may come cheaper, but he is 32 and may wish to stay w SF if they make a deep run.

And did that WR list forget Antonio Brown...
 

Harry Hooper

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Heard Fauria on WEEI Monday, talking about receivers getting up to speed with the Pats offense. He stated that newbies do have quite a bit to pick up (reading defenses, finding soft spots in zones, whatever), but the reason that established veterans like Joey Galloway and Ochocinco didn't fit in here is all on them for not being willing to adjust to what the Pats are running.
 

Devizier

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Heard Fauria on WEEI Monday, talking about receivers getting up to speed with the Pats offense. He stated that newbies do have quite a bit to pick up (reading defenses, finding soft spots in zones, whatever), but the reason that established veterans like Joey Galloway and Ochocinco didn't fit in here is all on them for not being willing to adjust to what the Pats are running.
You read that a lot about receivers not working out but I think it absolves the team of responsibility for bad signings and draft picks. Almost none of these guys did anything after their time with the Patriots. I think they didn’t work out because they weren’t very good anymore (or in the case of picks, in the first place).
 

JMDurron

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Ultimately, I don't see how we can evaluate Sanu's potential usefulness to the 2020 Patriots offense (with Brady) without understanding how much of his productivity problem was chemistry with Brady vs his injury limiting his ability to get separation on his routes, even if he ran them to the right spot on the field. If he's on the roster heading into 2020, I'm going to assume that his injury is considered to be more of an issue than his ability by the coaching staff, unless Brady is gone and the offense is changing enough that his 2019 issues become largely irrelevant to his likely 2020 performance (assuming he isn't toast).
 

pappymojo

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Key free agents going into the off season (with asterisks on my priorities):

Brady*
Dorsett
Thuney*
Karras*
Newhouse
Ferentz

D McCourty*
Van Noy
Collins
Shelton*

Slater*
Ebner
Folk
 

DJnVa

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Heard Fauria on WEEI Monday, talking about receivers getting up to speed with the Pats offense. He stated that newbies do have quite a bit to pick up (reading defenses, finding soft spots in zones, whatever), but the reason that established veterans like Joey Galloway and Ochocinco didn't fit in here is all on them for not being willing to adjust to what the Pats are running.
Is this mostly a Josh McDaniels thing or a BB thing? Because if McDaniels (and Brady) leaves then we might see some things change as to how difficult the offense is to pick up.