2020 Pats: General/Non-QB Off-Season Discussion

Saints Rest

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Should we be worried about Devin McCourty going to the Giants? Joe Judge may want a veteran player to help get the culture to where he wants it. He is obviously from the area and they need a safety.
One thing that BB did when he came to NEP was to bring in vets who knew his way of doing things (Bobby Hamilton, Roman Phifer, Bryan Cox, etc). Every time someone leaves the Pats to be a HC elsewhere, I expect them to do that.
With Judge's ST background, I would wonder if Slater might be wooed.
 

tims4wins

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Question on Thuney with regard to the CBA: if they negotiate an extension prior to the 2019 league year ending, would they be able to avoid the rules regarding the expiring CBA (salaries can’t go up by more than 30% each year, etc.)?
 

steveluck7

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How much of this is scheme, play calling, QB decisions, etc. I think it is tough to make much of it except that it all added up to being a well below average passing game this year.
Would also like to see average time to throw for Brady vs. other QBs. We all saw that the O-line wasn't giving him as much time so i'm curious if that led to these numbers being lower?
 

DJnVa

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Courtland Sutton was #142 and had 1100 yards. Cordarelle Patterson led the league at 4.19.
 

BaseballJones

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Courtland Sutton was #142 and had 1100 yards. Cordarelle Patterson led the league at 4.19.
I wonder how much of it has to do with zone vs. man defenses. So maybe a guy like Sutton has trouble getting open against tight press man, but he does a good job finding holes in zones, and it just so happens that teams play a lot of zone against Denver.

So maybe there's something to individual stories, but when you see all six primary Patriots' WRs in the bottom quarter of the NFL in terms of separation, that's not good.
 

NomarsFool

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With Judge's ST background, I would wonder if Slater might be wooed.
I think there's a good chance he's gone. He made some comments about needing to do what's best for his family, he's been amazing for the Pats on ST, but he's also getting up there in age.
 

DJnVa

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I think there's a good chance he's gone. He made some comments about needing to do what's best for his family, he's been amazing for the Pats on ST, but he's also getting up there in age.
Can you expand on why "doing what's best for his family" might mean moving them? Was there more to it?

Will other teams be willing to pay what NE does for him?
 

E5 Yaz

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This is nonsense, Bucky Brooks said the weapons and the o-line are excuses for a QB who has fallen off the cliff

 

RedOctober3829

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Edelman will be having 2 surgeries this offseason. One on his shoulder and an arthroscopic procedure on his knee. Wonder how much of the offseason he will miss.

The Patriots had plenty of problems keeping reliable receivers on the field, and that was with Julian Edelman playing every game.
Now that the season’s over, he needs some work done.
According to Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald, Edelman is going to have surgery on his left shoulder, as well as an arthroscopic procedure on his left knee.
 

Caspir

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He may have meant retiring.
Id be pretty surprised if Slater didn’t retire based on his comments. That would be a really tough loss, not just on special teams but in the locker room. Not super concerned about D Mac leaving, but I could see him hanging them up as well.

I feel like a “downside” to all the winning is that players may not feel the need to extend their careers since they’ve achieved their goal multiple times over. Can’t blame them given the physical toll.

On Slater, I’m glad we have Bethel locked up next year as a hedge, but watching them work together was poetry in motion so I’d like to see them paired up again.
 

tims4wins

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Id be pretty surprised if Slater didn’t retire based on his comments. That would be a really tough loss, not just on special teams but in the locker room. Not super concerned about D Mac leaving, but I could see him hanging them up as well.

I feel like a “downside” to all the winning is that players may not feel the need to extend their careers since they’ve achieved their goal multiple times over. Can’t blame them given the physical toll.

On Slater, I’m glad we have Bethel locked up next year as a hedge, but watching them work together was poetry in motion so I’d like to see them paired up again.
Re your middle paragraph, DMC sounded like he might retire after 2018, but he’s going to play in 2020. Just one data point of course. So it may not be true for all guys (hello Brady).
 

Cotillion

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Id be pretty surprised if Slater didn’t retire based on his comments. That would be a really tough loss, not just on special teams but in the locker room. Not super concerned about D Mac leaving, but I could see him hanging them up as well.

I feel like a “downside” to all the winning is that players may not feel the need to extend their careers since they’ve achieved their goal multiple times over. Can’t blame them given the physical toll.

On Slater, I’m glad we have Bethel locked up next year as a hedge, but watching them work together was poetry in motion so I’d like to see them paired up again.
Pretty sure Part of the reason they jumped on Bethel was the exact scenario of moving on from Slater in whatever form it ends up being.
 

Captaincoop

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We all thought to the naked eye that the receivers couldn't separate, but Evan puts the numbers out there. League average is 2.997.

View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1215714272086499328
What was Sanu's number in ATL? Gordon in SEA? Something seems fishy about this.

Edit: the following is from the day the Pats traded for Sanu in October -

"Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Sanu has averaged 3.7 yards of separation per target this season — fifth-best among all wide receivers with at least 20 targets — while operating almost exclusively in the short and intermediate zones. " .. WOW
 

Harry Hooper

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What was Sanu's number in ATL? Gordon in SEA? Something seems fishy about this.

Edit: the following is from the day the Pats traded for Sanu in October -

"Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Sanu has averaged 3.7 yards of separation per target this season — fifth-best among all wide receivers with at least 20 targets — while operating almost exclusively in the short and intermediate zones. " .. WOW



Did you see the response by Kyle Kennedy in Lazar's twitter thread?
Replying to @[B]TheGerman21[/B] @[B]ezlazar[/B]
Doesn't. Check ESPN. The league's leaders are actually below this. McLaurin and Evans 2.1. julio 2.2. Michael Thomas 2.6. diggs 2.5. Cooper 2.6. Hopkins amd Keenan Allen 2.7. low separation actually correlates with production.
5:22 AM - 11 Jan 2020
 

lexrageorge

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A team’s best receivers will often be facing the opponent’s best DB, sometimes with safety help as well. And the most productive pass catchers are probably ones that can do so with minimal separation.
 

NomarsFool

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What's going on with David Andrews? Will he be able to return in 2020, or could his condition be career ending? I think we've seen how important the O-line is in all aspects of the offense.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jeff Howe's offseason plan
--Re-sign Brady to a 3-year, $84 million deal. $15.75 million cap hit for 2020 which includes incentives in that number and a $1 million workout bonus to ensure he comes to OTA's which he includes for each year, $34.75 in 2021, and the third year is there for cap purposes. 2022 would be a $39 million, but $32 million of it is non-guaranteed so they could get out of the deal with $7 million in dead money or restructure if he still wants to play at 45.
--Trade a 3rd round pick for OJ Howard.
--Sign Tyler Eifert to a $6 million deal.
--Trade a 1st round pick for Mike Williams of LAC and a 3rd OR sign Emmanuel Sanders and beg Larry Fitzgerald to leave Arizona.
--Extend Dont'a Hightower and Duron Harmon to lower their cap numbers.
--Release Rex Burkhead and Jason McCourty to get cap space($7 million if both are released)
--Release Marcus Cannon in training camp if Cajuste shows he can win the job
--Release Mohamed Sanu if things don't improve in the offseason which would save $6.5 million
--Re-sign DMac, Ebner, Collins, Slater, Shelton, and Adam Butler.
--Let KVN, Thuney, Karras, Dorsett, and Calhoun go.
--Bring Chad O'Shea back.
--Extend Caserio.

 

Super Nomario

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Jeff Howe's offseason plan
--Re-sign Brady to a 3-year, $84 million deal. $15.75 million cap hit for 2020 which includes incentives in that number and a $1 million workout bonus to ensure he comes to OTA's which he includes for each year, $34.75 in 2021, and the third year is there for cap purposes. 2022 would be a $39 million, but $32 million of it is non-guaranteed so they could get out of the deal with $7 million in dead money or restructure if he still wants to play at 45.
I liked a lot of Howe's plan but I'm pretty sure this deal isn't viable given the 30% rule. Salary can only increase 30% year-on-year for deals spanning both sides of the CBA and he's nowhere near. I don't think it's possible to get Brady's 2020 cap figure nearly that small.
 

RedOctober3829

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I liked a lot of Howe's plan but I'm pretty sure this deal isn't viable given the 30% rule. Salary can only increase 30% year-on-year for deals spanning both sides of the CBA and he's nowhere near. I don't think it's possible to get Brady's 2020 cap figure nearly that small.
This is how he lays out Brady's contract. Figured I'd give you all the info and see if it's really untenable. I think I screwed up explaining the deal. After looking at the numbers, I don't know how he gets to the cap hits he does.

3 years, $84 million with a $21 million signing bonus

2020
$7 million sgning bonus
$1 million base
$1 million workout bonus
$1 million for 4200 yards
$1 million for 25 TDs
$2 million for SB victory
Cap hit: $15.75 million

2021
$20 million base salary
$7 million signing bonus
$1 million workout bonus
$1 million for 4200 yards
$1 million for 25 TDs
$2 million for SB victory
Cap hit: $34.75 million

2022
$32 million non-guaranteed base
$7 million signing bonus
Cap hit: $39 million
 

Super Nomario

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This is how he lays out Brady's contract. Figured I'd give you all the info and see if it's really untenable. I think I screwed up explaining the deal. After looking at the numbers, I don't know how he gets to the cap hits he does.

3 years, $84 million with a $21 million signing bonus

2020
$7 million sgning bonus
$1 million base
$1 million workout bonus
$1 million for 4200 yards
$1 million for 25 TDs
$2 million for SB victory
Cap hit: $15.75 million

2021
$20 million base salary
$7 million signing bonus
$1 million workout bonus
$1 million for 4200 yards
$1 million for 25 TDs
$2 million for SB victory
Cap hit: $34.75 million

2022
$32 million non-guaranteed base
$7 million signing bonus
Cap hit: $39 million
Yeah, there's no way. Howe is a great reporter and I like a lot of his ideas in the article, but I don't think he knows what he's talking about here.
 

BigJimEd

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Yeah, there's no way. Howe is a great reporter and I like a lot of his ideas in the article, but I don't think he knows what he's talking about here.
You would think he'd be aware of the rule but doesn't seem to be from that quote. Unless there is something we are missing.

Also, that's around $39M over 2 years in new money. That seems a good amount below market value.
 

EL Jeffe

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I like a lot of the ideas, but Tampa doesn't seem interested in trading Howard (and really have no reason to do so). I also don't see why LAC would trade Williams. Sanders would be a great pickup, but it's not like NE will have more money to throw at him than other teams. Eifert would make a lot of sense for both sides, though.
 

lexrageorge

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They still need to account for the $13.5 M carryover from Brady’s current deal. It can be spread out, but still should be listed.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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A lot just depends on how willing the two sides are to lock themselves into a two year commitment and how much the Patriots care about dead money down the road. That Howe contract is effectively $2/52 if the tacit understanding is that Brady won't be on the team or will play under a new deal in 2022. If both sides are comfortable with that number, you could just give him a three year deal with a $48M signing bonus and salaries of $2M, $2M, $2M and abide by the 30% rule. The downsides are more dead money in 2022 and a much stronger commitment to Tom Brady being the Patriots QB in 2021.
 

Ed Hillel

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Lost me at $6 mil for Eifert and a 1st for Mike Williams.
Eifert is the best TE on the market :(:mad::confused:.

The more I look at the roster and people we're going to lose, combined with the lack of cap space, the more I think it's time to move on from Brady and blow it all up. Unless maybe the NFL legalizes CBD oil and Gronk agrees to one last run on fresh wheels...
 

Average Game James

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Considering Henry and Hooper will be over $10 million, I think $6 million is a decent deal for Eifert.
Henry and Hopper are both 25yo and top ten players at the position.

Eifert is at best a part time player (played 45% of snaps this year) on the wrong side of 30 next year with an injury history that makes Henry look durable. And he’s not a good run blocker, if PFF grades are to be believed.

$10mn+ for Hooper might be out of NE’s budget, but that doesn’t make spending $6mn on Eifert a good idea.

Edit: I’d be more interested in Ebron in that price range, otherwise trade market is probably the best bet. If TB really isn’t trading Howard, maybe LA would consider moving Everett given their dearth of draft picks and Higbee’s late season emergence.
 
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NickEsasky

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He's a very solid running back, which is a waste of a first round pick. Not really his fault.
This. If we drafted Sony in the 3rd or 4th round we'd all be heaping praise on him. But instead, they wasted a 1st round pick on a position where you can get talent later on for a guy who isn't a game-changer.
 

Captaincoop

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Yes, if he picks up those 587 yards, he'll narrowly beat out Stevan Ridley's production over three years. Stevan Ridley, who was a third round pick and had a perfectly forgettable career.
 

DourDoerr

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That's a remarkable list. Outside of the TE production, it seems very pedestrian for a 6-time Super Bowl champ. To expand on CC's note above, still chasing down Stevan Ridley after 2 seasons is nobody's idea of dominance.

On the other hand, since Gronk's and Hernandez' first three years were concurrent, that's amazing production from the TE - 5477 YFS in 3 seasons. Wow.
 

Seels

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why on Earth do people think OJ Howard is a good player?
why do people think Eifert, a guy who has averaged 7 games a year for the last 6 years, is worthy of any money on a team with limited cap room? Tyler Eifert has 1000 yards in the last 4 seasons combined. No fucking way.