2019 Playoff Seeding and Home Field Advantage Watch
- Thread starter bsj
- Start date
Am I correct that if the Steelers and Titans finish with the same record, the Steelers make the playoffs? Both at 9-7 and at 10-6.
While trying to figure this out, I stumbled upon this thing. I’m not sure if it’s been linked.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/21/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture-week-16-trees.html
I was wrong. If Pittsburgh wins today and loses next week, and the Titans lose today and win next week, the Titans make it at 9-7.
Seriously. What kind of crazy shit is gonna happen next week?Good thing you went and ran those numbers
Right now if today's scores carry and the favored teams all win next week, your #6 seed is...the Raiders?!? At least, according to the Playoff Machine.
Baltimore and Texas might be resting starters, but they are hosting the Steelers and Titans, respectively. So I could still see either one winning, potentially.
Indy is eliminated, but they are playing @ Jacksonville, and the Jaguars reek of tire fire. So I expect Indy to win.
If Oakland can go to Denver and beat a team with nothing to play for (no sure thing at all), that leaves all 4 teams tied at 8-8 with Oakland getting that last spot.
Baltimore and Texas might be resting starters, but they are hosting the Steelers and Titans, respectively. So I could still see either one winning, potentially.
Indy is eliminated, but they are playing @ Jacksonville, and the Jaguars reek of tire fire. So I expect Indy to win.
If Oakland can go to Denver and beat a team with nothing to play for (no sure thing at all), that leaves all 4 teams tied at 8-8 with Oakland getting that last spot.
suddenly the Raiders seem like they have a pretty good shot, no? two of the three teams they need to help them are tire fires or facing tire fires.
meanwhile the top of the NFC is so scrambled right now
meanwhile the top of the NFC is so scrambled right now
The same issue of the Times has a column suggesting that the Seahawks bring back Marshawn Lynch, despite the fact that he’s 99 years old and hasn’t been on the field since he suffered a season ending injury for the Raiders last year.
Why not get Shawn Alexander back, if you’re stuck in fantasyland?
Why not get Shawn Alexander back, if you’re stuck in fantasyland?
If you are going to go get someone, at least get someone with some talent... Curt Warner is probably available.
I was ten feet away from Marshawn last week, I don’t believe he is in playing shape. But if any guy was going to come off the couch and play great it would be him. He looks better than CJ Anderson did last year.
All of a sudden the Raiders ten game parlay looks much more doable. It makes the choke/ref job against the Jags that much more painful. All they would need is a Titans loss if they hadn’t blown that one / gotten screwed.
All of a sudden the Raiders ten game parlay looks much more doable. It makes the choke/ref job against the Jags that much more painful. All they would need is a Titans loss if they hadn’t blown that one / gotten screwed.
Luckily Houston has seeding to play for however unlikely it is that the Chiefs lose. Hopefully the Ravens go starters for a full half. I think the biggest hurdle will actually be beating Denver.
If we pull off the inside straight would we be the first playoff team in history with a -100 point differential?
Why do we think the Texans would rest starters when they have a chance at the #3 seed? It may not seem like much, but it gives you slightly better chance at hosting.
KC plays at 1:00, so HOU will know if they have anything to play for by the time their game starts. So very likely the game means nothing to them and they'll be locked into the #4 seed.
I think for the first time, I'm convinced that the top 3 teams in the AFC are better than the top 3 teams in the NFC. I'd take Baltimore, NE, and KC over SF, NO, and either GB or Seattle. And in fact, I might go so far as to say that the top 5 in the AFC are better than the top 5 in the NFC, when I didn't think that was remotely possible earlier in the year.
I think you are sleeping on Payton/Brees. That's a matchup I wouldn't want in the playoffs. Especially with 2 weeks of planning. FWIW, the Pats would have to be #5 of those 6/7 teams for me if I were seeding them. I'm not saying I think they can't win - but the Pats combo of offensive weapons/performance aren't screaming playoff juggernaut to me... nothing new to anyone watching the team this year though.
Yeah, those top NFC teams are really good, no doubt. And right now ANY matchup with the top NFC teams would scare me. But I still think the top AFC teams are better.
Here's my fear factor list (least to most). Tonight's game and next week Seattle / SF match-ups might move those 4 teams around as I think Seattle is toast.
Philadelphia
Tennessee
Seattle
Buffalo
Minnesota
Green Bay
Houston
New Orleans
San Francisco
Kansas City
Baltimore
I think KC is too high and NO/GB too low, but otherwise mostly agree. There are a lot of really good teams this year, it seems.
Na. I think they're a team that can do some damage in the playoffs but matchup really poorly with the Pats. Pats should be 6-7 point favorites over them -- way too reliant on Thomas and trickery with Hill.
On a neutral field Pats would be favored over everyone except Baltimore.
I agree about the NFC. Saints are one dimensional, Packers are just not as good as their record is, same as Seattle. Minnesota -- I don't think anyone knows how to evaluate them.
Not that I don't think the NFC can easily win the Super Bowl, but aside from San Fran all those teams are super flawed.
The Patriots would not be favored over KC right now on a neutral field and unlikely they would even be favored at home. The Pats were -3 in Foxboro and lost to a banged up Mahomes. The Chiefs defense has been lights out over the past month and now Mahomes appears to be healthy again. It is mind boggling to me that the Ravens are such overwhelming favorites in the AFC when they already lost to KC and the Chiefs are being penalized for having so many injuries earlier in the year. I'm not complaining though as I just bought some Chiefs to win Super Bowl at +750 last week......I don't care if they win I already won by getting the best team at that price. I'm guessing by the start of the playoffs that is cut in half.
Not saying you didn't make a good bet but the Ravens defense is completely different than week 3. Like literally completely different - of the 19 guys who got snaps Sunday against the Browns, 6 guys literally weren't on the roster in Week 3 and 1 guy wasn't active because of injury; 2 guys are playing different positions; and 3 guys who played a grand total of 44 snaps versus KC played a total of 125 snaps versus CLE.
Put another way, players who played on a total of 269 snaps versus KC are either out with injuries, not playing defense anymore, or no longer with the team, and 129 additional snaps were played by players who no longer play that position. And in virtually every case, BAL upgraded those snaps.
Just FYI.
And the fact that their point differential is -105. Not really going to feel bad for Oakland potentially not making the playoffs because the Ravens are resting players. All they had to do is beat the Jets or Jags and failed to do so. All that said, I would like Oakland to make the playoffs.
My primary concern in a rematch isn’t the players on the field but Andy Reid’s notoriously boneheaded clock management in key situations.
They’ve had 16 weeks of “fair” and couldn’t get it done. The Ravens, on the other hand, have earned the right to do whatever they damn please.
Also, would much rather have the Steelers or the Raiders. The revived Titans & Tannehill are the one team you do not want to face out of the three.
I’m thinking this for next week.
If Seattle is 5 seed
Saturday
4:30 Buffalo at Houston ESPN/ABC
8:15 Seattle at Philadelphia/Dallas FOX
Sunday
1:00 TBA at New England CBS
4:40 Minnesota at New Orleans NBC
If Seattle is 3 seed
Saturday
4:30 Buffalo at Houston ESPN/ABC
8:15 Minnesota at Seattle NBC
Sunday
1:00 TBA at New England 1:00 CBS
4:40 San Francisco at Philly/Dallas FOX
If Seattle is 5 seed
Saturday
4:30 Buffalo at Houston ESPN/ABC
8:15 Seattle at Philadelphia/Dallas FOX
Sunday
1:00 TBA at New England CBS
4:40 Minnesota at New Orleans NBC
If Seattle is 3 seed
Saturday
4:30 Buffalo at Houston ESPN/ABC
8:15 Minnesota at Seattle NBC
Sunday
1:00 TBA at New England 1:00 CBS
4:40 San Francisco at Philly/Dallas FOX
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Another scenario. I just saw that cbs has had Sunday at 1 2 years in a row.
Seattle as 5 seed
Saturday
4:30 Buffalo at Houston ESPN/ABC
8:15 TBA at New England CBS
Sunday
1:00 Minnesota at NO FOX
4:40 Seattle at Philly/Dallas NBC
Seattle as 3 seed
Saturday
4:30 Minnesota at Seattle ESPN/ABC
8:15 San Francisco at Dallas/Philly FOX
Sunday
1:00 Buffalo at Houston NBC
4:40 TBA at New England CBS
Seattle as 5 seed
Saturday
4:30 Buffalo at Houston ESPN/ABC
8:15 TBA at New England CBS
Sunday
1:00 Minnesota at NO FOX
4:40 Seattle at Philly/Dallas NBC
Seattle as 3 seed
Saturday
4:30 Minnesota at Seattle ESPN/ABC
8:15 San Francisco at Dallas/Philly FOX
Sunday
1:00 Buffalo at Houston NBC
4:40 TBA at New England CBS
I will guess that Philly's game will be the Sat Night game even if Seattle wins and Buffalo/Houston the early Sat game.