2019 Playoff Seeding and Home Field Advantage Watch

[dcmissle]

They had like a 95% chance of a bye at one point this season. What a collapse.

Would chose to categorize this as a correction that finally caught up with a creame puff schedule. Some of the thread titles — especially pertaining to the world class defense — are fit for global embarrassment.

Perhaps it is best for Mike Vrabell to put the full Vrabel treatment on them — a full country ass whippin. Then there will be few illusions about anything,
And people can bet back to work with the utmost care.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Would chose to categorize this as a correction that finally caught up with a creame puff schedule. Some of the thread titles — especially pertaining to the world class defense — are fit for global embarrassment.

Perhaps it is best for Mike Vrabell to put the full Vrabel treatment on them — a full country ass whippin. Then there will be few illusions about anything,
And people can bet back to work with the utmost care.

Before today, the defense had only a couple of bad performances - Baltimore and Houston - both on the road. They did ok against Buffalo, owned Cincy, and held their own against KC. This ain’t the 1985 Bears but they have been largely really good.

Today they were inexplicably awful. Offense was far from perfect but they handed the D a 4 point lead with under 4 minutes and these guys just gave it away like it was 2011. Very annoying.

We’ll see if they can get their mojo back next week.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Would chose to categorize this as a correction that finally caught up with a creame puff schedule. Some of the thread titles — especially pertaining to the world class defense — are fit for global embarrassment.

Perhaps it is best for Mike Vrabell to put the full Vrabel treatment on them — a full country ass whippin. Then there will be few illusions about anything,
And people can bet back to work with the utmost care.

it was easy to believe the defense had found sustainable success after the playoff run, but it's been a decline since Baltimore pasted us that turned into a raging tirefire today.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Pats get a short week. Playing Saturday at 8:15.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Pats play at 8:15 Sat night. If they win, they play Sunday at 3:05 at KC.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

both AFC WCs on Saturday... both 1 seeds on Divisional round Saturday... San Francisco gets a 1:35pm local game... this is a weirdddd schedule.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

From a 1st round bye to six days to prepare for a Wild Card game. What a devastating loss this was.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I love the Sat night games. Let’s go!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Pats get a short week. Playing Saturday at 8:15.

Titans get a three-hours shorter week

 

[Dr. Winston O'Boogie]

I love the Sat night games. Let’s go!

This game will go the same as our last Satiurday night playoff game against the Titans. Remember the titans.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, Jan. 4:
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 4 Houston Texans, 4:35 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)
No. 6 Tennessee Titans at No. 3 New England, 8:15 p.m. (CBS)

Sunday, Jan. 5:
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 New Orleans Saints, 1:05 p.m. (FOX)
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles, 4:40 p.m. (NBC)
Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 11:
TBD at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers, 4:35 p.m. (NBC)
TBD at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 p.m (CBS)
Sunday, Jan. 12:
TBD at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m. (CBS)
TBD at No. 2 Green Bay Packers, 6:40 p.m. (FOX)
Championship Sunday, Jan. 19
AFC Championship Game, 3:05 p.m. (CBS)
NFC Championship Game, 6:40 p.m. (FOX)

 

[PseuFighter]

Nice thing about the divisonal round is by the time the Patriots take the field in Kansas City, they'll know whether or not they can host the AFCCG. How exciting!

 

[E5 Yaz]

New England's the only team nfl.com didn't hyperlink .... the league hates the Patriots

 

[RedOctober3829]

I’m loving the 3 and 6:40 starts on Sunday of divisional weekend.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

New England's the only team nfl.com didn't hyperlink .... the league hates the Patriots

more like no one can believe we actually dropped so the hyperlink wasn't ready....

 

[E5 Yaz]

more like no one can believe we actually dropped so the hyperlink wasn't ready....

No, no, no ... it's a conspiracy

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/tracywolfson/status/1211509897340211200?s=21

 

[nattysez]

I'll be at the Harry Potter play that I bought tickets for last March during the game. Can't even say I'm that mad about it.

 

[Marciano490]

I'll be at the Harry Potter play that I bought tickets for last March during the game. Can't even say I'm that mad about it.

Hopefully wizard magic is more fun to watch than Fitzmagic.

 

[Euclis20]

I'll be at the Harry Potter play that I bought tickets for last March during the game. Can't even say I'm that mad about it.

I wouldn't be. I saw it yesterday, it's excellent. Certainly a better time to be had than watching this team in their first WC game in a decade, in which the only noteworthy outcome would be pain.

 

[PseuFighter]

I'm glad I held off on Celtics/Bulls tickets, I guess.

 

[jsinger121]

View: https://twitter.com/tracywolfson/status/1211509897340211200?s=21

Could be our last nantz/romo game for awhile should the pats get popped and Brady is out.

 

[axx]

Sat night blows.

Could be our last nantz/romo game for awhile should the pats get popped and Brady is out.

I guess CBS is going to be pushing hard the "Is this the end for Brady??" line.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Being a man of the minute(aka very little social life), I love the Sat PM game. Pats + drinky = good Saturday night in my book.

 

[Ale Xander]

Wow afc games on one day and NFC on another. NFL almost never does that

 

[Soxy]

From a 1st round bye to six days to prepare for a Wild Card game. What a devastating loss this was.

Just to pour salt in the wound, they only have five days to prepare. Even worse for a team as banged up as they are.

They were 8-0 before losing to Baltimore, 10-1 before losing 3 of their last five. It's like 2015 all over again. Their poor finish that season "only" cost them home field in the AFC title game, which came back to bite them in the ass, but at least they still got a first round bye.

Hard to see this season ending any better than that one did. At this point, simply making it back to the AFC Championship game seems like a tall task. The only BB/Brady team to even make it that far without a bye was the 2006 team, which lost to the Colts.

The deck is firmly stacked against them now, to say the least.

 

[BaseballJones]

Just to pour salt in the wound, they only have five days to prepare. Even worse for a team as banged up as they are.

They were 8-0 before losing to Baltimore, 10-1 before losing 3 of their last five. It's like 2015 all over again. Their poor finish that season "only" cost them home field in the AFC title game, which came back to bite them in the ass, but at least they still got a first round bye.

Hard to see this season ending any better than that one did. At this point, simply making it back to the AFC Championship game seems like a tall task. The only BB/Brady team to even make it that far without a bye was the 2006 team, which lost to the Colts.

The deck is firmly stacked against them now, to say the least.

Yep. The Titans game alone will be extremely difficult. Tannehill is playing really well. Suddenly the Pats' secondary looks shaky. Henry is a bruiser that should give the defense a lot of trouble. And their D will be a major challenge for the Pats' offense. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Tennessee win in Foxboro - something I just couldn't have imagined saying at the halfway point of the season.

Then if the Pats somehow get past that game, they have to travel to KC. I know they won last year in KC, but (a) the Pats were MUCH better offensively last year than they are this year, and (b) the Chiefs are MUCH better defensively this year than they were last year. Moreover, the Pats don't have Gronk, who was a major key last year. So that seems like an incredibly stiff challenge.

And if they somehow win THAT, they in all likelihood would get to travel to Baltimore, where they already got smacked around this season.

And if they somehow win THAT, they'll get SF or NO or GB in the Super Bowl, and right now all those teams are better than New England.

I mean, you wanna talk about tall tasks? If the Pats somehow manage to win the SB this year, it will be their greatest achievement in franchise history by far.

And if they don't, it's really okay. 12-4, #3 seed in a "down" year is pretty nice.

 

[BaseballJones]

Final records of the teams on NE's 2019 schedule:

Pit (8-8) - W
Mia (5-11) - W
NYJ (7-9) - W
Buf (10-6) - W
Was (3-13) - W
NYG (4-12) - W
NYJ (7-9) - W
Cle (6-10) - W
Bal (14-2) - L
Phi (9-7) - W
Dal (8-8) - W
Hou (10-6) - L
KC (12-4) - L
Cin (2-14) - W
Buf (10-6) - W
Mia (5-11) - L
TOT: 120-136 (.469) - 12-4 record

They played 5 games against teams that finished with 10+ wins. In those games they went 2-3.
They played 5 games against teams that finished with 7-9 wins. In those games they went 5-0.
They played 6 games against teams that finished with 6 or fewer wins. In those games they went 5-1.

That's a good job against middle of the pack teams. Pretty good job against the bad teams (their annual WTF game was thrown in there, which is usually how it is...the WTF game ends up being against a bad team, hence the WTF). I'd take 10-1 against that group every year.

The letdown was 2-3 against top quality opposition. The two wins were against Buffalo, and the losses came to Hou, KC, and Bal. No shame in that, but I'd really have preferred a winning record against that group. And frankly, if not for incompetent refs, they probably beat KC.

 

[BigSoxFan]

People always love to discount the Pats’ success against bad teams but having so few letdown games is a skill. Just look at the Cowboys. They lost out on a division title and home playoff game because they couldn’t beat a decrepit Jets team with a rusty QB who was just returning from a month long mono absence.

 

[Al Zarilla]

People always love to discount the Pats’ success against bad teams but having so few letdown games is a skill.

And then there was Sunday, December the 29th.

What the hell, one thing the Patriots haven’t done is take the long road to a Super Bowl championship. Always good to accomplish something new. The 1985 team had us hoping, especially after the 31-14 AFCCG win over Miami. That dream ended quickly against da Bears.

 

[BigSoxFan]

And then there was Sunday, December the 29th.

What the hell, one thing the Patriots haven’t done is take the long road to a Super Bowl championship. Always good to accomplish something new. The 1985 team had us hoping, especially after the 31-14 AFCCG win over Miami. That dream ended quickly against da Bears.

That’s why Sunday was so shocking. They almost never blow games they need to win against bad teams.

 

[tims4wins]

Pats have never won a Super Bowl as a 13-3 team either so something had to give.

 

[Euclis20]

That’s why Sunday was so shocking. They almost never blow games they need to win against bad teams.

Eh, they've swept the division just once since 2007 (2012). Overdue for a loss.

 

[Al Zarilla]

That’s why Sunday was so shocking. They almost never blow games they need to win against bad teams.

That’s what I meant by December the 29th happening.

 

[BigSoxFan]

That’s what I meant by December the 29th happening.

Sorry, yes, I was agreeing with you, not correcting.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Eh, they've swept the division just once since 2007 (2012). Overdue for a loss.

It’s not really that they lost to a divisional opponent, it’s that they lost to a shitty one at home with tons on the line. That was the startling part. WTF games happen all the time but a team that used to pride itself on December execution, just got punked at home by Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

[Euclis20]

I think the spread speaks for itself (the Pats were favored by 17.5, rough), but the Dolphins were 5-4 in the final two months of the season. In retrospect it would have been shocking if the Pats swept the division in what was arguably the best year for the division since the current setup was finalized in 2002, especially considering how weak this Pats team looks compared to every other team this decade. They get one bad loss each year, and Miami fucking up their playoff seeding in December is nearly an annual tradition.

 

[BaseballJones]

Not sure this deserves its own thread, but I think we've talked about this kind of thing every year. Here goes....

If you could add one former Patriot's player that's still in the league (so...no Gronk or AB, who's still in the league but not available thanks to Goodell) back to the current roster for the playoffs, who would it be? You only get one pick. Here are some options I can think of.....

Danny Amendola - trusted WR and they could probably use some help there, even though I don't know that he's any better than what they have. Playoff 'Dola is pretty nice.

Trent Brown - Was awesome for them last year and played well for the Raiders this year. Better than Wynn? I dunno, but he might be an upgrade at LT.

Malcolm Butler - Is still a good CB, and with the way the secondary struggled, might be an upgrade over Jonathan Jones.

Jimmy Garoppolo - Yes, I said it. Would he be better than Brady right now? For the first time ever, I'm saying that this could be a possibility. And moving forward, yes for sure.

Chandler Jones - Dominant sack artist this year. Would be awesome to have him anchoring the pass rush.


When I think of all these guys, I think Chandler Jones is the right move. JG is tempting. Brown could be helpful. Amendola would probably make Brady feel a lot better, as Danny was one of his guys. But I think Chandler Jones would make this defense just sick.

 

[JMDurron]

I'd bring back Amendola, and it's not close. Any additional WR option who can be trusted to know where to be and when to be there would be huge right now, and might even help to free up Edelman after he makes a few significant catches. Changing out QBs with the rest of the offensive roster as it is right now would be utterly pointless, unless you had Lamar Jackson coming in to generate offense all on his own.

Regarding Butler, I'm wondering if the recent video on "tells" posted in the defense thread might have an applicable nugget here. A reference is made to teams figuring out that Jones happens to be particularly vulnerable to biting on double-moves, and from what I can recall, it seems as if Jones has been getting beaten deep more than on other kinds of routes in recent weeks. I'm thinking that Butler's otherwise inexplicable drop in performance late in his time with the Patriots might have been due to opponents figuring out some kind of "tell" or tendency in types of routes that Butler was vulnerable to, and then they exploited it and marginalized him in terms of his usefulness to the defense. If that's the case, Butler wouldn't actually be an upgrade over Jones, and we'd just have to hope that Jones is able to adjust, like a MLB hitter who discovers a hole in his swing and is able to counter what opposing pitchers do to him to exploit it.

 

[tims4wins]

Was just watching 2017 divisional vs Titans. Butler sucked out loud that night. Gave up 2 TDs and at least a half dozen catches.

 

[Super Nomario]

Not sure this deserves its own thread, but I think we've talked about this kind of thing every year. Here goes....

If you could add one former Patriot's player that's still in the league (so...no Gronk or AB, who's still in the league but not available thanks to Goodell) back to the current roster for the playoffs, who would it be? You only get one pick. Here are some options I can think of.....

Danny Amendola - trusted WR and they could probably use some help there, even though I don't know that he's any better than what they have. Playoff 'Dola is pretty nice.

Trent Brown - Was awesome for them last year and played well for the Raiders this year. Better than Wynn? I dunno, but he might be an upgrade at LT.

Malcolm Butler - Is still a good CB, and with the way the secondary struggled, might be an upgrade over Jonathan Jones.

Jimmy Garoppolo - Yes, I said it. Would he be better than Brady right now? For the first time ever, I'm saying that this could be a possibility. And moving forward, yes for sure.

Chandler Jones - Dominant sack artist this year. Would be awesome to have him anchoring the pass rush.


When I think of all these guys, I think Chandler Jones is the right move. JG is tempting. Brown could be helpful. Amendola would probably make Brady feel a lot better, as Danny was one of his guys. But I think Chandler Jones would make this defense just sick.

Six guys you didn't mention who might even be better fits:

Logan Ryan (TEN), Kenny Moore (IND), Justin Coleman (DET): Butler's a really good player but he plays almost exclusively on the outside (as he did in NE). So he wouldn't be taking reps away from Jonathan Jones as much as J.C. Jackson. Ryan, Moore, and Coleman are all more versatile and also arguably had better seasons.

Trey Flowers (DET) and Akiem Hicks (CHI): Chandler Jones is awesome, but a lot of the strength of the Patriots D has been putting Hightower, Van Noy, and Collins on the field together and creating havoc with their abilities to do different things. Jones takes one of those guys off the field in most situations. Flowers and Hicks can win one-on-one matchups inside and let the team continue to do the same sort of schemes up front that they've been doing. Flowers was always good at running games and stunts and would be especially fun with this LB corps.

Brandin Cooks (LAR): A down year for the banged-up Cooks, but he'd be the team's best outside / X receiver easily, gives a speed / big play dimension they don't have, and lets them use their other WRs in the slot more (Dorsett had 2 TD from the slot in Week 1; Harry did a lot of his best college work in the slot, etc.).

 

[BaseballJones]

Six guys you didn't mention who might even be better fits:

Logan Ryan (TEN), Kenny Moore (IND), Justin Coleman (DET): Butler's a really good player but he plays almost exclusively on the outside (as he did in NE). So he wouldn't be taking reps away from Jonathan Jones as much as J.C. Jackson. Ryan, Moore, and Coleman are all more versatile and also arguably had better seasons.

Trey Flowers (DET) and Akiem Hicks (CHI): Chandler Jones is awesome, but a lot of the strength of the Patriots D has been putting Hightower, Van Noy, and Collins on the field together and creating havoc with their abilities to do different things. Jones takes one of those guys off the field in most situations. Flowers and Hicks can win one-on-one matchups inside and let the team continue to do the same sort of schemes up front that they've been doing. Flowers was always good at running games and stunts and would be especially fun with this LB corps.

Brandin Cooks (LAR): A down year for the banged-up Cooks, but he'd be the team's best outside / X receiver easily, gives a speed / big play dimension they don't have, and lets them use their other WRs in the slot more (Dorsett had 2 TD from the slot in Week 1; Harry did a lot of his best college work in the slot, etc.).

I thought about Ryan after I posted it. Forgot about him, even though he's probably going to be a key guy this week for the Titans.

Flowers would be a great add. Hicks is injured I think and not available. Cooks? Yeah maybe him too.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Jacob Hollister wouldn't be my first choice, but he might be in my Top 5

 

[BaseballJones]

12 playoff teams and how much of a cap hit their QBs have this year (all info from spotrac.com):

AFC
1. Bal - Lamar Jackson - #44, $2.1m
2. KC - Patrick Mahomes - #32, $4.5m
3. NE - Tom Brady - #11, $21.5m
4. Hou - Deshaun Watson - #34, $3.8m
5. Buf - Josh Allen - #30, $4.8m
6. Ten - Ryan Tannehill - #28, $5.4m
AVG: #29.8, $7.0m

NFC
1. SF - Jimmy Garoppolo - #15, $20m
2. GB - Aaron Rodgers - #2, $29.7m
3. NO - Drew Brees - #9, $22.7m
4. Phi - Carson Wentz - #21, $8.4m
5. Sea - Russell Wilson - #4, $26.3m
6. Min - Kirk Cousins - #3, $29.0m
AVG: #9.0, $22.7m

In the AFC, only one QB's cap hit was more than $5.4 million. Only one QB's cap hit ranking was higher than #28. That one QB fulfilling both conditions was Tom Brady.

In the NFC, only one QB's cap hit was less than $22.7 million. Only one QB's cap hit ranking was lower than #15. That one QB fulfilling both conditions was Carson Wentz.

So in the AFC, it's Brady plus a pile of really low-paid (but very good) QBs. A lot of youth there. Tannehill is middle-aged, Brady is obviously old, but the other four are really young and, frankly, exciting.

In the NFC, it's a pile of well-paid veteran QBs.

 

[johnmd20]

Not sure this deserves its own thread, but I think we've talked about this kind of thing every year. Here goes....

If you could add one former Patriot's player that's still in the league (so...no Gronk or AB, who's still in the league but not available thanks to Goodell) back to the current roster for the playoffs, who would it be? You only get one pick. Here are some options I can think of.....

Danny Amendola - trusted WR and they could probably use some help there, even though I don't know that he's any better than what they have. Playoff 'Dola is pretty nice.

Trent Brown - Was awesome for them last year and played well for the Raiders this year. Better than Wynn? I dunno, but he might be an upgrade at LT.

Malcolm Butler - Is still a good CB, and with the way the secondary struggled, might be an upgrade over Jonathan Jones.

Jimmy Garoppolo - Yes, I said it. Would he be better than Brady right now? For the first time ever, I'm saying that this could be a possibility. And moving forward, yes for sure.

Chandler Jones - Dominant sack artist this year. Would be awesome to have him anchoring the pass rush.


When I think of all these guys, I think Chandler Jones is the right move. JG is tempting. Brown could be helpful. Amendola would probably make Brady feel a lot better, as Danny was one of his guys. But I think Chandler Jones would make this defense just sick.

I would choose Jones. 2nd pick would be Cooks, but I would feel dirty making that pick. Amendola is merely ok, he wouldn't help that much. Butler is washed, it appears.

Logan Ryan would also be a consideration. But I think taking Jones would improve the team the most.