2019 Playoff Seeding and Home Field Advantage Watch

wade boggs chicken dinner

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No that’s the same thing I’m getting. It’s just on the initial visit. Once I select any of the options it goes with Baltimore as the #1.
It’s just weird that anything would result in showing them as the #3 seed without having been manipulated to get that.
OK, I get what you are saying and I get that too. If you look at the URL that you get by clicking on the bottom left link, it's a weird URL that I think is probably an old URL that doesn't update. If you click on the main link at the top of the triangle, it goes to the correct - and current - URL.

Agree it's weird though!
 

wilked

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with KC winning, think the Pats need to win out to get the all important Bye.
Bears ain’t beating the Chiefs.
chargers have a shot but seems unlikely
 

BaseballJones

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with KC winning, think the Pats need to win out to get the all important Bye.
Bears ain’t beating the Chiefs.
chargers have a shot but seems unlikely
Next week's game against the Bills is gonna be a war. Thankfully it's at home.
 

djbayko

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Nope.

Google search on terms: ESPN playoff machine, click on the '2019 NFL Playoff Machine' link as shown in the screen shot below. Granted, I clicked on the sub-header that is to the left of the '2018 NFL Playoff Machine' link. Trying it again just now, the top 'main' link shows Baltimore as the #1 but the lower link shows the Pats. There is a ton of tracking crap in the link so maybe there's a cookie somewhere that has me marked as a Pats fan? I dunno.

View attachment 27388
Your issue seems to be with Google, not ESPN. Google is the one bookmarking those URLs.
 

wilked

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If bills lose tonight do pats clinch division? Can’t seem to get straight answer
 

DJnVa

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If bills lose tonight do pats clinch division? Can’t seem to get straight answer
No, but it means they can lose to Bills and still win if they beat Dolphins.

But that brings the Chiefs back into it, so we don't want that.
 

dcmissle

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No, but it means they can lose to Bills and still win if they beat Dolphins.

But that brings the Chiefs back into it, so we don't want that.
That’s the conundrum when you don’t take care of your own business. That Texans game was an abomination — especially in light of Denver beating them at home by 14 points the very next week.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Buffalo is now in the postseason, most likely as the 5 seed (heaven forbid anything higher).

current 6 seed race:
-Steelers 8-6 (6-4 conference record tiebreaker), remaining: @NYJ, @BAL
-Titans 8-6 (6-5 conference record), remaining: NO, @HOU
-Indy 6-7, remaining: @NO, CAR, @Jax

the Browns & Raiders are 6-8, but Tennessee has head-to-head wins against both. I did find a crazy scenario where Cleveland gets in at 8-8 if Indy is also 8-8, in a 4-team or 5-team (Raiders) tiebreaker:

AFC Tiebreakers
  • 6th Seed - Cleveland
    Wins tie break over Indianapolis and Oakland based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Pittsburgh (Cleveland wins tie break over Pittsburgh based on best win percentage in division games). Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Tennessee (Indianapolis wins tie break over Tennessee based on best win percentage in division games).
If Indy is less than 8-8, it ends up Tennessee:

AFC Tiebreakers
  • 6th Seed - Tennessee
    Wins tie break over Cleveland and Oakland based on head-to-head sweep. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Pittsburgh (Cleveland wins tie break over Pittsburgh based on best win percentage in division games).
Indy is a gut shot, but those are a pretty easy last two games so if they upset NO tomorrow, who knows? New Orleans can still get the 1 seed with SF losing today so you bet they will be playing hard.
 

Ale Xander

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Actually Oakland could be in in a 3 or 4 team tiebreaker if Browns lose to Bengals, and end up 7-9. By virtue of Indy eliminating Tenn within division.

Based on ESPN machine. But way too many things have to go their way.

Oakland is in if (in addition to them winning out and Titans losing out):
1) Colts win exactly one of next 2, but not both and not none.
2) Week 16: Browns beat Ravens, Bengals beat Dolphins, Jets beat Steelers,
3) Week 17: Ravens beat Steelers, Bengals beat Browns, Colts beat Jaguars
 
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InstaFace

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So what's going to be the Week 17 SNF play-in game? The NFC wildcards are basically set: NFC West runner-up (both 11-3), and then probably the Vikings (10-4 to Green Bay's 11-3). And it's a pity the Cowboys-Eagles rematch is next week, because otherwise that'd be an easy deathmatch to choose. Among the week 17 games, there's 3 contenders I expect to most want to watch all the way through, already knowing the rest of the day's results:

- Steelers @ Ravens - a fallback for the networks. AFC North Smash-Mouth Footbaw! Pittsburgh might be playing for a playoff spot, but if the Ravens beat the Browns at home next week, they'll have nothing to play for.
- Titans @ Texans - probably a play-in for the 4 seed, with the winner possibly being alive for the 6 seed. Texans feel like the better team but the Titans have them beat by a lot on point differential. Might be the game that decides the most, but comes with less star power than the respective battles for the East or West Coast.
- 49ers @ Seahawks - two legitimately great teams, with obvious strengths and not-so-great weaknesses, led by one QB who is awesome and brilliant and the other QB who is Very Handsome and has his moments. Winner likely gets the 1 seed, I'm not sure NBC can say no to that.
 

BigSoxFan

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Has to be Niners/Seahawks. Two really good teams with playoff bye implications and Sherman/Seattle storyline. About as juicy as it gets.
 

Ale Xander

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So what's going to be the Week 17 SNF play-in game? The NFC wildcards are basically set: NFC West runner-up (both 11-3), and then probably the Vikings (10-4 to Green Bay's 11-3). And it's a pity the Cowboys-Eagles rematch is next week, because otherwise that'd be an easy deathmatch to choose. Among the week 17 games, there's 3 contenders I expect to most want to watch all the way through, already knowing the rest of the day's results:

- Steelers @ Ravens - a fallback for the networks. AFC North Smash-Mouth Footbaw! Pittsburgh might be playing for a playoff spot, but if the Ravens beat the Browns at home next week, they'll have nothing to play for.
- Titans @ Texans - probably a play-in for the 4 seed, with the winner possibly being alive for the 6 seed. Texans feel like the better team but the Titans have them beat by a lot on point differential. Might be the game that decides the most, but comes with less star power than the respective battles for the East or West Coast.
- 49ers @ Seahawks - two legitimately great teams, with obvious strengths and not-so-great weaknesses, led by one QB who is awesome and brilliant and the other QB who is Very Handsome and has his moments. Winner likely gets the 1 seed, I'm not sure NBC can say no to that.
Is this a trick question?
 

wilked

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There are scenarios, but practically then for the Patriots:
1 win, win Division, 3 seed playing Wildcard weekend
2 wins, win Division and secure a Bye, 2 seed

Saturday’s game is huge
 

BigSoxFan

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There are scenarios, but practically then for the Patriots:
1 win, win Division, 3 seed playing Wildcard weekend
2 wins, win Division and secure a Bye, 2 seed

Saturday’s game is huge
Yup. Saturday is a playoff game. Win it and after all this angst, the team would just need to beat Miami at home to secure a bye.
 

wilked

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Wouldn’t the Bills have the better conference record in that scenario?
Breaking ties
  • Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  • Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  • Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (games played against the same opponents).
  • Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
 

InstaFace

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Why? If the Bills win out they are 12-4, one game better than the #2 seed Super Bowl winning Patriots of 2018/19.
I think he's so used to the Bills being the butt of jokes that it's causing him great cognitive dissonance to imagine that we might have a serious challenger for the division. Basically, he thinks we should get the AFC East by birthright.

As previously mentioned, this is already the first time since 2010 that another AFC East team has controlled their division destiny into the month of december (the Jets entered their game in Foxboro tied at 9-2, and proceeded to lose 45-3, though we know they got us in the end). And the first time since 2008 that the division went past that point. I think NE wins on Saturday but we really ought not to take it for granted. They almost certainly have their best coach since Marv Levy left town, and their fans know it.
 

tims4wins

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I think he's so used to the Bills being the butt of jokes that it's causing him great cognitive dissonance to imagine that we might have a serious challenger for the division. Basically, he thinks we should get the AFC East by birthright.

As previously mentioned, this is already the first time since 2010 that another AFC East team has controlled their division destiny into the month of december (the Jets entered their game in Foxboro tied at 9-2, and proceeded to lose 45-3, though we know they got us in the end). And the first time since 2008 that the division went past that point. I think NE wins on Saturday but we really ought not to take it for granted.
To be clear, the Bills do not control their division destiny, and did not control it entering December. They needed Pats losses to win the division. They still don't control their division destiny. They need the Pats to lose twice.
 

InstaFace

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To be clear, the Bills do not control their division destiny, and did not control it entering December. They needed Pats losses to win the division. They still don't control their division destiny. They need the Pats to lose twice.
To be clear, they did indeed control it entering December. Prior to their loss on 12/8 vs the Ravens, and following NE's loss against the Texans, the Bills would have tied the common-games tiebreaker and then won the division on conference record if both had won out, with Buffalo winning the mutual matchup.
 

tims4wins

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To be clear, they did indeed control it entering December. Prior to their loss on 12/8 vs the Ravens, and following NE's loss against the Texans, the Bills would have tied the common-games tiebreaker and then won the division on conference record if both had won out, with Buffalo winning the mutual matchup.
Ok so there was 1 week on the schedule where they controlled their own destiny. But entering December they were 9-3 to the Pats 10-1. And then after 12/8 they did not control their division destiny. So they controlled it for a single week.
 

InstaFace

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Ok so there was 1 week on the schedule where they controlled their own destiny. But entering December they were 9-3 to the Pats 10-1. And then after 12/8 they did not control their division destiny. So they controlled it for a single week.
I accept your apology. If you're going to be a dick and use condescending phrasing to correct people, you best be right. Say what I might about (for example) E5, he checks his work before taking the safety off his posting finger.

The point is that this is the first time in a decade that there is a close challenger for the division. In the post I quoted, the statement was that if the Pats were to lose one of their games vs HOU or KC, the Bills would then control their destiny - the first time since 2010 that an AFCE rival would have had such status in December. There are other ways to frame the relative strength of a division challenger, but it's pretty easy to see that they are the strongest non-Patriots team in the division for a long time.
 

tims4wins

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I accept your apology. If you're going to be a dick and use condescending phrasing to correct people, you best be right. Say what I might about (for example) E5, he checks his work before taking the safety off his posting finger.

The point is that this is the first time in a decade that there is a close challenger for the division. In the post I quoted, the statement was that if the Pats were to lose one of their games vs HOU or KC, the Bills would then control their destiny - the first time since 2010 that an AFCE rival would have had such status in December. There are other ways to frame the relative strength of a division challenger, but it's pretty easy to see that they are the strongest non-Patriots team in the division for a long time.
Wasn't trying to be a dick. When you wrote "into the month of December" I thought you meant heading into December, as opposed to a point in time in December. I wasn't wrong. But you weren't wrong either. The Bills did indeed control their division destiny heading into last weekend. You were correct on that. I was correct that the Bills did not control their division destiny heading into December.
 

tims4wins

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Now that we got that out of the way...

AFC is mostly settled. There is some seed jockeying, but in terms of in/out it's

AFC South: Titans control their destiny, but need to beat Saints and Hou to win division. Still, if I were them I'd take that over options without control
Wildcard #2 - Between the loser of the above race and the Steelers (Raiders/Browns are too far of longshots to talk about).

I am really hoping that Week 17 Titans/Texans is winner take all for division, and loser maybe out of the playoffs. Will make for great football
If Houston wins this week (at Tampa) and the Titans lose to the Saints, the Texans will have the division wrapped up. Would make for an interesting week 17 game - would BOB rest his starters and let the Titans win?
 

InstaFace

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I'm glad we can move on now.

So... while we're all concerned about AFC seeding given rooting interests, the NFC is arguably the more interesting and delicately-balanced situation. Here's how it stands assuming the Saints hold serve at home against Indy tonight, leaving FOUR teams all at 11-3:

1. Seattle (11-3), on H2H vs SF, Conf Record vs NO (both SEA & GB at 8-2 vs 8-3 for NO), and then Common Games vs GB: vs each of SF, PHI, CAR, MIN, Seattle is 4-0 while Green Bay is 2-2 (loss to Philly, and then a blowout against SF).
2. Green Bay (11-3) by the same process
3. New Orleans (11-3) due to that 3rd conference loss
4. Dallas (7-7), ahead of Philadelphia (7-7) on their H2H matchup, pending their rematch
5. San Francisco (11-3), though they control their own destiny given the week 17 game vs Seattle
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4), and despite next week being the GB rematch, they don't control their own destiny due to another division loss at Chicago, they need a GB loss at Detroit week 17

A wildcard rubber match of MIN @ GB would be real fun. Either way, the loser of SF / SEA functionally gets a bye as well, going to the NFC East team. Those divisional playoffs are going to be a war.
 

BaseballJones

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The NFC playoffs are going to be incredible. Five excellent teams, and even Dallas, if they play to their capability, can be really good. Bloodbath.
 

BigJimEd

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If Houston wins this week (at Tampa) and the Titans lose to the Saints, the Texans will have the division wrapped up. Would make for an interesting week 17 game - would BOB rest his starters and let the Titans win?
Depends on seeding but unless they have a shot at the bye, why wouldn't they rest some key guys?
 

wilked

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If Houston wins this week (at Tampa) and the Titans lose to the Saints, the Texans will have the division wrapped up. Would make for an interesting week 17 game - would BOB rest his starters and let the Titans win?
I think HOU just needs a win, not a loss by Titans
 

tims4wins

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I think HOU just needs a win, not a loss by Titans
Looks like you are correct by virtue of division record. So if Houston takes care of business they may have nothing to play for in week 17, unless they are trying for the off chance of the #3 seed as opposed to the #4 seed.
 

BaseballJones

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I think there are a lot of excellent teams out there this year in the NFL, but I also think every team has shown signs of weakness.

NE: 11-3, likely #2 seed in the AFC. Pass defense is off the charts good, and the run defense is solid, but much weaker than the pass defense. So they can be run on. But the real issue is offense. Struggling to score points, if you can get to 21 on them, you are in good shape. Kicking is very suspect as well. Got handled pretty good by Baltimore and Houston, and lost at home to KC in a game where the refs played a huge role.

KC: Great offense, but run defense is problematic, and that really could bite them in the butt in the playoffs. They have lost 3 games with Mahomes: to Indy, to Houston, and at Tennessee. They can definitely be had.

Hou: Got blown out by Baltimore and Denver (!). Defense is pretty bad and can be abused.

Buf: Excellent defense but not much of a passing game. Got blown out by Philly and also lost to Cleveland (!), and of course, lost to NE and Baltimore.

Bal: Solid in every facet of the game, including special teams. The one team where I don't see much of a weakness. After they got on their roll, they just haven't shown many holes. But Buffalo and SF showed that they can be contained, so there's hope.

SF: Lost to Sea, Bal, and Atlanta (!). Strong in most areas but clearly have some WTF moments.

Sea: Inexplicable blowout loss to the Rams (!) shows they also have some WTF moments.

NO: Lost to the Rams, 49ers, and Atlanta (!). Just a team that can be had.

GB: Nice record, but they really haven't been impressive. Lost to SF, which is understandable, but also the Chargers and Eagles. So nothing to write home about.

Min: Another solid team but got beat badly by the Bears and have three other losses.

Long story short, every team but Baltimore has had major UGH moments this year. There's a lot of really good teams but all are also vulnerable.
 

Brand Name

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I can't imagine that's ever happened before in NFL history.
1943 had the Giants and Redskins face off in 3 consecutive weeks, beginning with two to end the regular season and then a play-in round playoff round to determine the winner of the Eastern Division as both were tied at 6-3-1.
 

BaseballJones

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The 2003 Patriots had the #12 scoring offense, the #17 yardage offense, but the #1 scoring defense and the #2 yardage defense. Their point differential was +110 over a 14-2 record.

The 2019 Patriots have the #8 scoring offense, the #18 yardage offense, but the #1 scoring defense and the #1 yardage defense. Their point differential is +191 over an 11-3 record so far.

So winning the Super Bowl with a great defense and a middling-to-weak offense is totally doable. It's just that there appears to be a pretty serious juggernaut in the NFL right now that is very...problematic. That didn't exist in 2003.
 

Bowhemian

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The 2003 Patriots had the #12 scoring offense, the #17 yardage offense, but the #1 scoring defense and the #2 yardage defense. Their point differential was +110 over a 14-2 record.

The 2019 Patriots have the #8 scoring offense, the #18 yardage offense, but the #1 scoring defense and the #1 yardage defense. Their point differential is +191 over an 11-3 record so far.

So winning the Super Bowl with a great defense and a middling-to-weak offense is totally doable. It's just that there appears to be a pretty serious juggernaut in the NFL right now that is very...problematic. That didn't exist in 2003.
Wasn't the 2003 Indy Colts team pretty much a juggernaut?
 

Euclis20

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Wasn't the 2003 Indy Colts team pretty much a juggernaut?
That was the perception, but the Pats played the Colts in Foxboro in January and were a 3.5 point favorite. They had beaten them on the road earlier in the year. If they meet in the title game this year, I doubt the Pats are favored @ Baltimore.
 

Saints Rest

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I'm glad we can move on now.

So... while we're all concerned about AFC seeding given rooting interests, the NFC is arguably the more interesting and delicately-balanced situation. Here's how it stands assuming the Saints hold serve at home against Indy tonight, leaving FOUR teams all at 11-3:

1. Seattle (11-3), on H2H vs SF, Conf Record vs NO (both SEA & GB at 8-2 vs 8-3 for NO), and then Common Games vs GB: vs each of SF, PHI, CAR, MIN, Seattle is 4-0 while Green Bay is 2-2 (loss to Philly, and then a blowout against SF).
2. Green Bay (11-3) by the same process
3. New Orleans (11-3) due to that 3rd conference loss
4. Dallas (7-7), ahead of Philadelphia (7-7) on their H2H matchup, pending their rematch
5. San Francisco (11-3), though they control their own destiny given the week 17 game vs Seattle
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4), and despite next week being the GB rematch, they don't control their own destiny due to another division loss at Chicago, they need a GB loss at Detroit week 17

A wildcard rubber match of MIN @ GB would be real fun. Either way, the loser of SF / SEA functionally gets a bye as well, going to the NFC East team. Those divisional playoffs are going to be a war.
Not so fast. Rewind to 2010. The defending champion Saints end up as the Wild Card at a respectable 11-5, but have to travel to Seattle to play the 7-9 division winning Seahawks.
In a game everyone figured to be a walk for NO, the Seahawks win 41-36 behind Marshawn Lynch and Matt Hasselbeck.
 

InstaFace

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That's fair, but also that Seattle team was coached by Pete Carroll, while we've got Jason Garrett likely to lead his charges to the glories of a division win and home playoff game. Let's just say if it ends up a 12-4 Niners or Seahawks squad going to an 8-8 Dallas, I would need pretty good money line odds to bet on the home team.
 

BigJimEd

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I would expect either of those teams to beat Dallas but I wouldn't call it a gimme. Certainly not the same as a bye where you players can rest and coaches can prepare.
 

Hendu At The Wall

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Depends on seeding but unless they have a shot at the bye, why wouldn't they rest some key guys?
Re Texans:

If the Pats lose to the Bills, the Texans have a shot at the bye regardless of the KC-CHI result in week 16. So if the Bills win this weekend, the Texans will be full throttle in week 17 even though odds for the bye would be poor (Jets, Miami and possibly Chargers would have to win.)

But even in scenarios where the Pats beat Buffalo, the Texans may be fighting to host the Steelers or Titans instead of Buffalo. They''d be full throttle for that (and as mentioned for the chance to play @ NE in the second round, which is a sad thing to write.)

There are scenarios where it's a play-in game for the 4 seed, scenarios where it's to seed at #4 instead of #6...Texans will have plenty of motivation win or lose against TB this week.

Edit: to clean up a lot of wrong analysis...
 
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