2019-20 Offseason Discussion

Plympton91

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What are the Market Comps to Jackie Bradley who will be paid $11 million or more next year?

Bradley has positive value, but that value is entirely eaten up by an $11 million salary.

If they want him to play CF again in 2020, it’s fine. If they want to trade him for a similar salaried mediocrity at a different position, that might work. But they won’t get any surplus value in a trade.

Good. He clearly has positive value at $11m.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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Good. There are probably 10-12 teams in baseball that would start JBJ in center field at 1/$11m. I hope he’s on ours.

It’s not very rational, but I’m still hoping that this austerity talk from Sox ownership is an elaborate sleight of hand. The Yankees have obviously exercised some financial restraint relative to last decade, but Cashman has also cried poor a number of times and then took an abrupt turn against that approach.

I don’t expect we’ll in the running for Cole or anything, but I think it’s entirely possible the Sox end up with a payroll above the first tax threshold.
 

nvalvo

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What are the Market Comps to Jackie Bradley who will be paid $11 million or more next year?

Bradley has positive value, but that value is entirely eaten up by an $11 million salary.

If they want him to play CF again in 2020, it’s fine. If they want to trade him for a similar salaried mediocrity at a different position, that might work. But they won’t get any surplus value in a trade.
Bradley was a super 2, and established a very high base with his elite 2016, so it's true, he's a touch more expensive than many of his peers. Comps for him are hard to find.

He's also a reliable 2ish WAR regular, with demonstrated upside for more. He's no longer the great value he was when he was posting 5.5 WAR for $500k, and I don't think I'd favor extending him unless it was at a very reasonable cost, but he's likely to be cheaper than any desirable FA available. Likewise, I think trading prospects for a value upgrade is likely to be penny wise, pound foolish. I'd say that your assertion that his value is entirely consumed by his one year commitment at $11m needs defending. (If we're shooting ourselves in the foot because of an ownership mandate to slash payroll, that's another matter.)

How about Lorenzo Cain as a comp? In the first two years of his 5/$80m contract with Milwaukee, he has produced two great defensive seasons. In one of them he was a two-way star with an .813 OPS (5.7 WAR), in the second (1.5 WAR) he had negative value with the bat, a .697 OPS which ate up some of the value of his superlative defense. He's 33, and has 3/$48 left. JBJ hasn't had a 5+ WAR season since 2016, but he's also four years younger. I think 29 y/o Bradley at $11m has more value than 33 y/o Cain at 3/$48, but it's close. It's worth noting that Bradley was worth more than Cain through both players' age-28 season, but then Cain's 7 WAR career year in the Royals' WS winning 2015 campaign put him ahead of Bradley. He's been up and down since.

Kevin Pillar is also Arb3, older (31), likely a worse hitter, and likely a worse defender than Bradley. MLBTR expects him to receive $9.7m in arb. He's like a version of Bradley, if Bradley had never had his good offensive seasons. If SF non-tenders him — which would be a bad move, given their OF — maybe we could snag him for $6m or so and deal Bradley to Arizona to save a few bucks, but there's a reason the various projections think Bradley is the better player.

Probably Bradley's closest comp is Kevin Kiermaier, also 29, who is in year three of a 6/$53m deal (with a reasonable club option/buyout for a 7th year). That's an AAV of ~$9m. Bradley's park-adjusted offensive stats are better, but Kiermaier has been a few runs better on defense. Kiermaier has also been hurt a lot, while Bradley has been reliably healthy, averaging 145 games a season since he became a full-timer.

Would you rather have Kiermaier at 3/$30, with a $13m option/$2.5m buyout for the fourth year? Or Bradley at 1/$11m? I'd say those are pretty similar value propositions.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Charlie Culberson was just non tendered. Possible Brock Holt replacement?
 

Plympton91

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Very interesting nvalvo. I would not have considered Cain a comp, but you make a good point. Nor was I aware Kiermaier had gotten expensive.

My sense is that the $WAR number has gone down for the mid-tier players like Bradley, but those are fairly recent examples.

All that just reinforces how difficult it will be to remain competitive while staying below the middle threshold of $228 Million, let alone $208.
 

sean1562

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what do we think of jose peraza? he was bad last year but is only 26? his minor league stats are pretty bad and idk how good he is defensively at 2b
 

jon abbey

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Kevin Pillar non-tendered, that's not going to help JBJ's market.

Edit: Pillar is maybe a good comp for JBJ, both drafted in 2011, Pillar a year older, both defense-first CFs who have a similar career bWAR (15.6 for Pillar, 15.0 for Bradley), both had their best seasons a few years back.
 

ehaz

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Other intesresting non-tenders: Steven Souza Jr., Taijuan Walker, Blake Treinen, Addison Russell.

I'd like Souza Jr. as a cheaper JBJ replacement (this is assuming Mookie or AB moves to CF and Souza takes a corner spot). Only a year removed from 140 games with a 119 OPS+. Good career numbers in Fenway and the rest of the AL East ballparks.

Walker may also be a fit at the right price. Former top prospect, electric stuff, can't stay healthy, but still only 27 years old. Can't be relied on to make 30 starts, but he could be half a Porcello replacement or a potential bullpen option.
 

steveluck7

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Anyone know of any health issues here. Arb eligible, but given his limited play the past couple of seasons he can stand to make a ton. Perhaps Chiam's got something in the works for Mookie and needs to create roster space?
This move got them down to 34 men on the 40 man so roster space isn’t really an issue.
More likely that he (Bloom) thinks Marco is either easily replaced or that he’s not likely to be picked up and can be signed to a minor league deal
 

rhswanzey

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What is the point of claiming Osich only to non-tender him three weeks later?
Maybe he was really AAA insurance in case we couldn’t get Johnson through waivers. Osich isn’t a guy you pencil into an OD pen. This was probably one guy for the first fringy lefty up kind of role. Osich had an option, so if you prefer Johnson and lose him, you still have the role covered.

Trevor Kelley was claimed by the Phillies. Someone get him a Wasdin jersey as his Jeter gift basket.
 

nvalvo

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Huh. I'm not sure I see the point of non-tendering Hernandez at this stage, but I'd guess he's back on a split contract.

And what exactly are the Giants doing with their OF that they don't have a roster spot for Pillar?
 

Green Monster

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Maybe he was really AAA insurance in case we couldn’t get Johnson through waivers. Osich isn’t a guy you pencil into an OD pen. This was probably one guy for the first fringy lefty up kind of role. Osich had an option, so if you prefer Johnson and lose him, you still have the role covered.
Not sure I am following this logic. Osich still has an option regardless if Johnson cleared waivers. Johnson is no longer on the 40man roster and still doesn't have an option. If the Sox were to need Johnson, he would need to be added back to the 40man before activating him and he still wouldn't have an option.........for clarity I am not suggesting Osich is any kind of stud or even better than BJ. Just seems unnecessary in hindsight unless they are actual trying to get Osich to clear during the frenzy of activity and then keep both BJ and Osich as depth.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not sure I am following this logic. Osich still has an option regardless if Johnson cleared waivers. Johnson is no longer on the 40man roster and still doesn't have an option. If the Sox were to need Johnson, he would need to be added back to the 40man before activating him and he still wouldn't have an option.........for clarity I am not suggesting Osich is any kind of stud or even better than BJ. Just seems unnecessary in hindsight unless they are actual trying to get Osich to clear during the frenzy of activity and then keep both BJ and Osich as depth.
Every off-season there are guys that bounce from team to team via the waiver wire. Not every claim is necessarily with an eye toward the guy being a contributor. Maybe they put the waiver claim in on him not expecting they'd get him, won the claim, then decided he wasn't worth the tender after all. I mean, the White Sox waived him in the first place, maybe the Red Sox came to a similar conclusion that he wasn't a fit for them. It literally costs them nothing.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Probably tried to sign Osich for 600K when he is projected for 1M, he said no and they moved on.
 

budcrew08

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i haven’t seen anything about this, but Athletics reliever Blake Treinen was waived... any chance the Sox could be in on him at 6.4M as a (mostly) inexpensive back of bullpen piece?
 

YTF

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i haven’t seen anything about this, but Athletics reliever Blake Treinen was waived... any chance the Sox could be in on him at 6.4M as a (mostly) inexpensive back of bullpen piece?
Had a dreadful season last year after a brilliant performance the previous season. Possible over use in '18? Wonder if he'll bounce back
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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i haven’t seen anything about this, but Athletics reliever Blake Treinen was waived... any chance the Sox could be in on him at 6.4M as a (mostly) inexpensive back of bullpen piece?
Is $6.4M inexpensive? Depends on context, I suppose. League-wide, that's not so pricey. For the allegedly budget-conscious Red Sox, it might be. The highest paid guy in the Sox bullpen last year was Tyler Thornburg at $1.7M. So $6.4M is a huge step for them. Probably too big a step for a guy, despite having a tremendous season in 2018, was horrible last year and is 32 years old.
 

Green Monster

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A couple names that caught my attention as possible bullpen pieces and potentially more affordable are:

Junior Guerra
Yimi Garcia
 

amRadio

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Positive value yes, but if the directive is to get under $208 million then his spot is still in jeopardy.
Since the arb salaries are non-guaranteed, couldn't they just cut him before the 16th day of ST and avoid his luxury tax hit? That'd be pretty savage, but that's a thing, right?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Cesar Hernandez non-tendered by the Phillies. Average-ish defender, above average contact, historically very good plate discipline which took a tumble this year for mysterious reasons, little power. He was a solid 3-WAR type player just a couple of years ago, and he'll be hitting 30 next year. Seems like he could be a worthy stopgap on a modest enough deal. Should the Sox be interested?
 

Yo La Tengo

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Anyone have thoughts about how bad Domingo Santana's defense is (12 errors last year)? If JBJ can be moved, I wonder if the front office would assess Santana as an option in LF. He's 27, made $1.95 million last year, won't be a free agent until 2022, was released by Seattle, and was having a very good offensive season last year before he got hurt. I'm guessing there may be continued concerns about his elbow, as his release seems like a surprise.

Santana was hitting .273/.342/.472 with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs before suffering an elbow injury on July 23. The Mariners allowed Santana to continue playing in a designated hitter’s role, where he would go on to put up awful numbers: .119/.246/.237 with a 45.7 strikeout percentage.

In 2017, as a 24 year old in Milwaukee, he put up a line of .278/.371/.505 with 30 home runs and 15 stolen bases over 151 games.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Since the arb salaries are non-guaranteed, couldn't they just cut him before the 16th day of ST and avoid his luxury tax hit? That'd be pretty savage, but that's a thing, right?
That's not quite true. Arbitration contracts are only the ones that actually are a result of arbitration, like Mookie's contract last year. If a player and team agree to a deal prior to getting to the arbitration stage, that's a normal guaranteed contract.

The Red Sox and JBJ can't agree to a contract today (let's say 1/11M) and then cut him on the 15th day of spring training and get out of it. They can do that if JBJ's salary is decided through an arbitration hearing.
 

BaseballJones

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Yimi needs to be signed today. That doesn't make any sense.
Yimi: 62.1 ip, 3.61 era, 5.19 fip (a problem), 115 era+, 0.87 whip, 9.5 k/9

I don't understand how his fip can be so high relative to his era, when his whip is so low and his k/9 is good.

15 hr in just 62.1 ip though...oof. Which answers my question regarding fip.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Yimi: 62.1 ip, 3.61 era, 5.19 fip (a problem), 115 era+, 0.87 whip, 9.5 k/9

I don't understand how his fip can be so high relative to his era, when his whip is so low and his k/9 is good.

15 hr in just 62.1 ip though...oof. Which answers my question regarding fip.
He's always been a flyball pitcher, and last year was an extreme flyball pitcher (56%). It's not that his HR/FB spiked (in fact, it went down, from 21.2% to 16.9%).

I'm not sure the AL East in general, and Boston in particular, is a great fit for a guy with that profile.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I wonder if the Sox will take an interest in C.J. Cron. He's a hacker, but he's always hit well at Fenway, and he's a more or less viable defender at 1B. If he could be had for <$5M, I think that would be an intriguing gamble.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I wonder if the Sox will take an interest in C.J. Cron. He's a hacker, but he's always hit well at Fenway, and he's a more or less viable defender at 1B. If he could be had for <$5M, I think that would be an intriguing gamble.
So Chaim dumps him in Tampa last year because he'd be too costly and then picks him up in Boston this year because he doesn't cost too much? That'd be funny.
 

chrisfont9

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re JBJ, the Globe touted his last 100 games numbers (.252/.342/.504) and talked about swing adjustments. Maybe the team has some optimism about his offense trending up? Or the Globe is trying to sell them some? I'd be fine with keeping him at least til the ASB to see what's what.
 

chawson

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I wonder if the Sox will take an interest in C.J. Cron. He's a hacker, but he's always hit well at Fenway, and he's a more or less viable defender at 1B. If he could be had for <$5M, I think that would be an intriguing gamble.
Cron is interesting for sure. Recall the analysis that Jon Abbey shared upthread suggesting there’s potential upside/positive regression in his bat still.
 

chrisfont9

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Cron is interesting for sure. Recall the analysis that Jon Abbey shared upthread suggesting there’s potential upside/positive regression in his bat still.
Huh. Benny too maybe. Re Cron, a pillow deal for a season in Fenway wouldn't be the worst way to up his value. He's not an extreme pull hitter but the Wall would definitely be his friend, assuming he can get to 2b quickly enough.
 

effectivelywild

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re JBJ, the Globe touted his last 100 games numbers (.252/.342/.504) and talked about swing adjustments. Maybe the team has some optimism about his offense trending up? Or the Globe is trying to sell them some? I'd be fine with keeping him at least til the ASB to see what's what.
I hear he's in the best shape of his life and is finally free of the nagging injuries that no one talked about last season.
 

Sam Ray Not

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i haven’t seen anything about this, but Athletics reliever Blake Treinen was waived... any chance the Sox could be in on him at 6.4M as a (mostly) inexpensive back of bullpen piece?
Non-rhetorical: what happened to Treinen last year? He went from a 4.76 K/BB, 1.82 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP in his age 30 season to 1.59 K/BB, 5.14 FIP, and 1.62 WHIP at age 31. That's insane. If there was some specific physical reason for the collapse (that has since been resolved), I could be intrigued.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Non-rhetorical: what happened to Treinen last year? He went from a 4.76 K/BB, 1.82 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP in his age 30 season to 1.59 K/BB, 5.14 FIP, and 1.62 WHIP at age 31. That's insane. If there was some specific physical reason for the collapse (that has since been resolved), I could be intrigued.
He made a deal with the devil last year. His 4 seam fastball was unhittable. In 2016, 2017, and 2019 it was a horrible pitch.
 

Manramsclan

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I can't tell you how many fantasy baseball drafts I blew going on Gammo peddling this line...
I can relate to this.

Cron is an interesting candidate in a typical offseason where the team would normally be looking to find veteran bounce back candidates at lower than market prices.

However, in this climate where the Red Sox have stated that they want to get under, or at least closer to, the CBT threshold, I don't see it as likely. Why would they spend even a couple of million $ on a fringy veteran, when they could plug Chavis or Dalbec at 1B for the minimum and see what they have? The fringy veteran is more likely to produce than the unproven rookie who has seen only minimal ABs at AAA, but $4 Million of cost delta along with whatever CBT penalty comes with that makes it less likely for this team at this time. The performance risk is easier to take on now than the financial risk.

The Leon trade is in line with this thinking. $3 Million for a backup catcher wouldn't be a concern for this team in a normal offseason, but why keep him when they could get similar production for $750k* and get closer to their goal?

*Estimating what it might be like to sign Plaweki or whatever non-tendered backup C is out there

The Nunez and Pearce signings last year ended up being nearly as big a drag on payroll as Dustin Pedroia. The worst part is, that Dombrowski had a choice.
 

Plympton91

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I think one reason to spend on 1B is that it’s likely to be a significant value add, and it will allow them to play Chavis at 2B, where they also have no options and the Bargain bin free agent choices are much more risky.

For the same cost, would you rather have Holt and Chavis, or Chavis and Moreland.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Lots of interesting names

Yimi
Treinen
Culbertson
Gausman
Taijuan Walker
Steven Souza
Domingo Santana
Cron
Aaron Sanchez
 

chrisfont9

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I think one reason to spend on 1B is that it’s likely to be a significant value add, and it will allow them to play Chavis at 2B, where they also have no options and the Bargain bin free agent choices are much more risky.

For the same cost, would you rather have Holt and Chavis, or Chavis and Moreland.
Yeah I can't say I know Bloom's MO very well but this kind of high-upside signing seems very Tampa. Oh, and also Cron's Fenway splits are .328/.377.656, basically MVP numbers, albeit in 69 PAs.
 

chawson

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Yeah I can't say I know Bloom's MO very well but this kind of high-upside signing seems very Tampa. Oh, and also Cron's Fenway splits are .328/.377.656, basically MVP numbers, albeit in 69 PAs.
The tricky thing about Cron are his numbers vs. RHP. He’s at 95 wRC+ against them from 2017-19 over 1026 PAs. Fenway maybe helps that a bit, but it might be ambitious to give him the full timeshare.

My hunch is that Bloom would value positional flexibility more than DD did. A complicated platoon between Cron and Avila — with Avila (or maybe Cervelli) splitting time between 1B and catcher — or one with Sogard or Brad Miller splitting time at second, is interesting to me if they're gonna go cheap.
 
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amRadio

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That's not quite true. Arbitration contracts are only the ones that actually are a result of arbitration, like Mookie's contract last year. If a player and team agree to a deal prior to getting to the arbitration stage, that's a normal guaranteed contract.

The Red Sox and JBJ can't agree to a contract today (let's say 1/11M) and then cut him on the 15th day of spring training and get out of it. They can do that if JBJ's salary is decided through an arbitration hearing.
Thanks! I was looking for some feedback on that scenario. I knew there had to be some kind of kink in that idea and the luxury tax is murky to me when it comes to some of the more granular details.