2019-20 Offseason Discussion

chawson

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With Chaim Bloom’s expected hire, this should be an exciting, if possibly painful, offseason. In contrast to the news and notes thread, I’m hoping this can be a place to discuss strategy and potential paths in roster construction to get back in contention, including and beyond questions about Mookie and JDM.

The latter’s opt-out is the first domino, then it’s probably the decision to extend or trade Mookie — and I happen to think the Bloom hire signals an intend to extend, as one of Bloom’s strengths is finding cheap production elsewhere, and tasking Romero/Ferreira/O’Halloran/Scott with trading him would have scattered the blame.

As I see it, replacing Dombrowski with Bloom could foretell two distinct shifts.

1. The Rays have been one of the more active front offices in baseball the past few years. Under Dombrowski, the Red Sox have made some big moves, but have otherwise been one of the least active. The current Sox roster is obviously more static, but I’d still wager that we’ll see more transactions overall — which is exciting, because the Rays have “won” trades for Pham, d’Arnaud, Pagan, Choi, Anderson, Diaz, and Meadows/Glasnow in the the last 18 months.

2. We could see a pivot away from traditional starters and toward the ‘opener’. The Sox toyed with that in some Eovaldi starts late last year, but I could see the team targeting once-through-the-order pitchers, as Boston’s starting pitching needs don’t seem fill-able in this winter’s particular starting pitcher market.

The Rays have excelled at finding incredible value in free agents, particularly the bullpen, where they’ve coaxed useful years out of scrap heap guys like Oliver Drake and Colin Poche.

What does Bloom do with the Sox roster? Who stays? Who goes? Who are the targets?

Free agents
Porcello
Holt
Moreland
Pearce
Chacín
Centeno
(Sandoval)

Options
Martinez (3/$62.5m player opt-out, $2.5m buyout)
Cashner ($10m team option)

Non-tender candidates
León ($2.8m proj. arb)
Travis (FA 2025; one option remaining; limited utility)
Hembree ($1.6m proj. arb, potentially lingering elbow issues)
 

sean1562

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I could see everyone from that list leaving. I think it is time to move on from the Leon train. Holt is a great dude but do the utility guys we have in the minors fill his role for less money? Excited to see what the new guy can do. I thought moving on from DD was a good move and excited to see them grab a guy like Bloom
 

DeadlySplitter

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Leon is definitely gone, that was true regardless of who the new GM was. Great guy, zero offense and too expensive now in arb.

I hope Holt is back but there's a good chance he's gone. Pedey's clogging contract is the real issue at 2B
 

OurF'ingCity

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I think everyone on the list is gone except Travis and Hembree (and whether JDM returns is obviously up to him, but especially if Bloom is the new GM I think it's approximately a zero percent chance that the Sox would renegotiate or re-sign JDM if he does opt out, and even then I think there's a decent chance they trade him if he opts-in).

Edit: If we are doing predictions, I will also predict that JBJ gets traded, but no Mookie trade (but also no Mookie extension).
 

chawson

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I think everyone on the list is gone except Travis and Hembree (and whether JDM returns is obviously up to him, but especially if Bloom is the new GM I think it's approximately a zero percent chance that the Sox would renegotiate or re-sign JDM if he does opt out, and even then I think there's a decent chance they trade him if he opts-in).

Edit: If we are doing predictions, I will also predict that JBJ gets traded, but no Mookie trade (but also no Mookie extension).
A Cincinnati best reporter speculated that the Reds could revisit a JBJ trade they considered last winter. In that scenario (maybe packaged with Walden or Workman?), I could see Desclafani coming back, who had a minor breakout last year and may be worth extending for Lance Lynn money.
 
Jun 12, 2019
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The only ones above who seem like "Rays-type players" are Hembree and Travis. A healthy Hembree is a bargain at that price, and Travis is the sort of ultra-cheap role player who will contribute it he's not overexposed. I'd be surprised if anyone else returns.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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A Cincinnati best reporter speculated that the Reds could revisit a JBJ trade they considered last winter. In that scenario (maybe packaged with Walden or Workman?), I could see Desclafani coming back, who had a minor breakout last year and may be worth extending for Lance Lynn money.
Would be a good deal. Speaking of the Reds whats the deal with Alex Wood? I really can't imagine him back in Cincinnati and might be a good gamble on a pillow contract. Depending on what this team can afford of course.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
A Cincinnati best reporter speculated that the Reds could revisit a JBJ trade they considered last winter. In that scenario (maybe packaged with Walden or Workman?), I could see Desclafani coming back, who had a minor breakout last year and may be worth extending for Lance Lynn money.
I don't know if I'd want to extend Desclafani given his history of UCL injury. Also, I don't know if I'd call his 2019 a breakout so much as a luck spike; the major differences between his 2018 and 2019 appear to be lower BABIP and higher LOB rate. (To be fair, another interpretation is that it was more of a continuing recovery from a year lost to injury; his 2019 was more like his 2015 and 2016 than his 2018 was.)

His overall MLB record is that of an average pitcher, a guy who's a solid #4 and a fringey #3. He's basically Porcello without the Cy Young upside or track record of durability. He'd be an acceptable one-year drop-in replacement for Porcello at a non-trivial cost savings (like JBJ, he's in final year of arb next year, with a projected salary of $5.2M per MLBTR), and that's possibly the best we could hope for in a JBJ deal. But unless there's something there that isn't jumping off the stat lines, he doesn't seem like a long-term solution to anything.
 
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chawson

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I don't know if I'd want to extend Desclafani given his history of UCL injury. Also, I don't know if I'd call his 2019 a breakout so much as a luck spike; the major differences between his 2018 and 2019 appear to be lower BABIP and higher LOB rate. (To be fair, another interpretation is that it was more of a continuing recovery from a year lost to injury; his 2019 was more like his 2015 and 2016 than his 2018 was.)

His overall MLB record is that of an average pitcher, a guy who's a solid #4 and a fringey #3. He's basically Porcello without the Cy Young upside or track record of durability. He'd be an acceptable one-year drop-in replacement for Porcello at a non-trivial cost savings (like JBJ, he's in final year of arb next year, with a projected salary of $5.2M per MLBTR), and that's possibly the best we could hope for in a JBJ deal. But unless there's something there that isn't jumping off the stat lines, he doesn't seem like a long-term solution to anything.
The injury history is something, though I don’t know if Porcello’s a great comp. Desclafani seems like a discount Zach Wheeler to me. He throws a lot harder than Porcello, and had a pretty nice velocity and K% spike last year. His fastball sits at 94.7 mph, 11th among qualified MLB starters, and a slider at 89.3 was third hardest in the league (tied with Cole behind Wheeler and deGrom).

I’m also not convinced that BABIP luck isn’t repeatable. He gets a lot of infield flies. He’s also excellent against RHH. He’s not an ace, but the expected wOBA is on par with Bieber, Wheeler, Kershaw and E-Rod. Luck independent, he was still a top 30 starter.

It’s a little shrewd, but I like the idea of trading for him and offering the same 3/$30 extension Sonny Gray got, which means he’d be betting he could repeat his 2019 numbers in the AL East if he wanted to test free agency for more than that.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The talent is on the Sox team right now to win another WS with Mookie but without JDM.... without both, it really doesn't. I don't think Bloom will deal Mookie. Obviously the most important thing is for Price and Sale to stay healthy and pitch 180 innings each. If those two do that, they're competitive... if they don't, they'll struggle along like '19 at best.
I have more questions than ideas- what is the deadline for JDM opting out?
I think it's time to deal JBJ... yeah, I know they're not getting much in return but maybe a low level mL arm or someone that could turn into something. Please no more ML "established" bullpen arms.
What REALLY is the budget? I can't believe it's $208M.
Should JBJ and JDM's replacement just be one player? I'm really not sure who is on the FA market that would improve JBJ's offense while at least being "good enough" defensively to be a net positive. Castellanos? Ozuna? What would their price be and how would it affect signing an extension for Devers with available funds?
Who will be available to pick up Porcello's role as a consistently healthy innings eater at the least? Odirizzi? The rotation is a disaster. Sale, Eovaldi, Price and then Rodriguez..... There's one guy you can count on to be solid and healthy out of that so Bloom needs to add at least another into the mix assuming that one of the first three will be on the DL.
Bloom has his work cut out for him......
 

BaseballJones

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This team is completely different if their starting pitching does what it’s supposed to do (and gets paid handsomely to do).

Sale and Price are keys moving forward. The big move/non-move to me of course is a Betts decision. We are all a little anxious on that I think.
 

Green Monster

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Nothing new, but a nice summary of the situation with JD
 

Green Monster

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Some reasonable production in Japan, perhaps Tsutsugo offers an opportunity to replace a bat in the Sox lineup if one or more of the OFers (JD, JBJ or MB) are moved. If I understand correctly, a fee would be paid to his current team but would that fee count against the luxury tax? Am I correct that just the negotiated player salary would count towards the tax??
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Some reasonable production in Japan, perhaps Tsutsugo offers an opportunity to replace a bat in the Sox lineup if one or more of the OFers (JD, JBJ or MB) are moved. If I understand correctly, a fee would be paid to his current team but would that fee count against the luxury tax? Am I correct that just the negotiated player salary would count towards the tax??
Yes, the posting fee is not counted as salary. However, with the current posting system, it is not longer simply a matter of being the highest bidder then an exclusive negotiating window. The player is free to negotiate with any MLB team he wishes, and then the team he chooses pays a posting fee to his NBL team based on the contract he gets. So if there's competition for Tsutsugo (and why wouldn't there be), he's not likely to be cheap or a significant saving over whichever current player he replaces.
 

chawson

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Yes, the posting fee is not counted as salary. However, with the current posting system, it is not longer simply a matter of being the highest bidder then an exclusive negotiating window. The player is free to negotiate with any MLB team he wishes, and then the team he chooses pays a posting fee to his NBL team based on the contract he gets. So if there's competition for Tsutsugo (and why wouldn't there be), he's not likely to be cheap or a significant saving over whichever current player he replaces.
Tsutsugo had a big K% spike last year, and Mike Axisa likens him to Kyle Schwarber production with a Bryce Harper approach. If the Sox were to do something like package Benny with Price or Eovaldi, he might be a cheap replacement option, but I bet a non-contending team pays more for him due to the trade upside.
 

chrisfont9

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Am I right in thinking that this thread is for throwing spaghetti at the wall, while the "news" one is for actual news?

If so, I will throw something at the wall... what is Jonathan Schoop worth and would he have some potential to outplay his contract at Fenway and paired up with his old friend Bogaerts? He seems cemented in as a one whiff per game guy and that 5.2-bWAR season looks like a serious outlier, but his defense is OK and they're down to Marco Hernandez and Pedroia, with Nunez and Holt coming off the books at $8.5m.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
If so, I will throw something at the wall... what is Jonathan Schoop worth and would he have some potential to outplay his contract at Fenway and paired up with his old friend Bogaerts? He seems cemented in as a one whiff per game guy and that 5.2-bWAR season looks like a serious outlier, but his defense is OK and they're down to Marco Hernandez and Pedroia, with Nunez and Holt coming off the books at $8.5m.
I would think Schoop gets 3/$30M, at a minimum. I wouldn't be shocked to see something closer to 4/$50M. He's only 28 and because (as you say) he's a non-terrible defender with some pop, he has a reasonably high value floor.

I think he'd be a very good fit, but the only way the Sox sign him is if either (1) they give up on getting under the lowest LT threshold or (2) at least one of their high-dollar contracts (Mookie, JDM, Price, Sale) goes off the books through opt-out or trade.
 

jon abbey

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Schoop was a FA last winter after MIL didn't offer him arb and he signed for 1/7.5, then he lost his starting spot this year and only got two pinch-hit ABs in the ALDS. The numbers in the previous post seem way high to me, I would guess more like 1/8 or 2/12.
 

Plympton91

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Schoop’s past 3 years have been almost identical to Brian Dozier’s (excellent, bad, decent). Dozier got a 1 year $8 million contract from the Nats for 2019 off the down year. Jed Lowrie was coming off 2 fantastic years and only got 2-$20 from the Mets. Will a rebound, primarily in power, really be worth that much to Schoop?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Schoop was a FA last winter after MIL didn't offer him arb and he signed for 1/7.5, then he lost his starting spot this year and only got two pinch-hit ABs in the ALDS. The numbers in the previous post seem way high to me, I would guess more like 1/8 or 2/12.
Well, at that price, I'd snap him up. Seriously, I agree that 4/$50M is too much; must have been the Halloween candy talking. But it does seem to me that unless he's actually having a Sandoval-like early decline, the chances of him producing at least 6 WAR (i.e., >$45M in value) over his age 28-30 years seem pretty good. So if he can really be had for $6M to $8M in AAV for three years or less, that seems like a pretty attractive target for a team with a 2B hole.

Schoop’s past 3 years have been almost identical to Brian Dozier’s (excellent, bad, decent). Dozier got a 1 year $8 million contract from the Nats for 2019 off the down year. Jed Lowrie was coming off 2 fantastic years and only got 2-$20 from the Mets. Will a rebound, primarily in power, really be worth that much to Schoop?
Your post and JA's have convinced me I overshot the mark considerably, but the problem with the Lowrie comp is that Lowrie was 7 years older than Schoop, and had a history of fragility that should have been a warning flag. Dozier was also over 30. The age difference matters because the older a player is, the more reason there is to assume that a down year is the beginning of the end.
 

jon abbey

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I actually talked about Schoop as a possibility for NY early on last winter (before they signed LeMahieu), but I think that he is somehow less than the sum of his parts, maybe a locker room thing or shitty D. Three teams will have let him go in the last two seasons if he moves on from MIN, and again anyone could have signed him last winter pretty cheaply before MIN did.
 

chawson

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why trade workman and what would we even get for him? seems like this pen needs as many competent relievers as it can get
Moving this Workman talk out of the news thread.

Opinions seem to vary on him but I can’t think of a stronger sell-high candidate than Brandon Workman. Whether injury (his own history and/or the clearly high-stress effort of throwing 50 percent curveballs), BABIP regression, or the league having an offseason to figure out his new approach, I doubt he’ll be worth more to us next year than he would in a trade. He was quite good, but he’s not young or hard-throwing and had a very low .209 BABIP. I think it’s more likely he’s Carl Edwards, Jr. or Kyle Barraclough next year than Ottavino.

Send Workman and his shiny 1.88 ERA, maybe with Marco, to Brodie for Lowrie and Diaz. That baseball trade values site says that deal works.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Moving this Workman talk out of the news thread.

Opinions seem to vary on him but I can’t think of a stronger sell-high candidate than Brandon Workman. Whether injury (his own history and/or the clearly high-stress effort of throwing 50 percent curveballs), BABIP regression, or the league having an offseason to figure out his new approach, I doubt he’ll be worth more to us next year than he would in a trade. He was quite good, but he’s not young or hard-throwing and had a very low .209 BABIP. I think it’s more likely he’s Carl Edwards, Jr. or Kyle Barraclough next year than Ottavino.

Send Workman and his shiny 1.88 ERA, maybe with Marco, to Brodie for Lowrie and Diaz. That baseball trade values site says that deal works.
The problem with that is that it significantly increases payroll. For that reason, I don't see this as a viable option.
 

chrisfont9

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I actually talked about Schoop as a possibility for NY early on last winter (before they signed LeMahieu), but I think that he is somehow less than the sum of his parts, maybe a locker room thing or shitty D. Three teams will have let him go in the last two seasons if he moves on from MIN, and again anyone could have signed him last winter pretty cheaply before MIN did.
Yeah, well this is part of why I'm intrigued. If it's a fit thing, maybe reuniting with an old friend helps put him in the right frame of mind? Not something you want to bank on but he's already got a pretty high floor. On a make-good deal the Sox would have to consider him.
 

RIrooter09

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Moving this Workman talk out of the news thread.

Opinions seem to vary on him but I can’t think of a stronger sell-high candidate than Brandon Workman. Whether injury (his own history and/or the clearly high-stress effort of throwing 50 percent curveballs), BABIP regression, or the league having an offseason to figure out his new approach, I doubt he’ll be worth more to us next year than he would in a trade. He was quite good, but he’s not young or hard-throwing and had a very low .209 BABIP. I think it’s more likely he’s Carl Edwards, Jr. or Kyle Barraclough next year than Ottavino.

Send Workman and his shiny 1.88 ERA, maybe with Marco, to Brodie for Lowrie and Diaz. That baseball trade values site says that deal works.
You want to trade our best reliever for a 35 year old second baseman who played 9 games last year and a reliever with an ERA in the mid 5's? Not to mention they're both significantly more expensive than Workman.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You want to trade our best reliever for a 35 year old second baseman who played 9 games last year and a reliever with an ERA in the mid 5's? Not to mention they're both significantly more expensive than Workman.
If given a choice between the oft-injured 35 year old 2B and the oft-injured 27 year old 2B, I'm taking the 27 year old. And that's before considering the significant salary difference. Jed Lowrie is not someone the Red Sox should be pursuing except maybe if the Mets DFA him and they can pick him up for the league minimum.
 

sean1562

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And if random posters on the internet see workman’s holes, do you think front offices won’t? He is a FA after next season I believe. What would we even get for him? What did the marlins get for barraclough?

edit: baseball ref says unknown compensation. So what, international signing money?
 

chawson

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If given a choice between the oft-injured 35 year old 2B and the oft-injured 27 year old 2B, I'm taking the 27 year old. And that's before considering the significant salary difference. Jed Lowrie is not someone the Red Sox should be pursuing except maybe if the Mets DFA him and they can pick him up for the league minimum.
Someone else mentioned Lowrie so I rolled with it. The Sox need a second baseman but of course he’s no prize, and I figure that there’ll be plenty of money moving around this offseason to offset this particular move.

My basic point is that Workman has more perceived value than actual value, Diaz is a bad luck/change-of-scenery target, and Bloom is several magnitudes smarter than Brodie.
 
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lexrageorge

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Except Bloom is not going to make a trade that increases their payroll to that degree.

Workman's best attribute in 2020 could be that he's an above replacement value bullpen arm at low cost for a year. So letting him pitch his walk year in Boston is not the worst strategy.
 

Plympton91

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How cheap is he going to be though? He was a very good reliever last year and because this is his final arb year he gets to use free agent comparables. That brings in some 10- figure contracts.

I think if they’re planning to go under $208, and thus not going to win, then Workman as a sell-high candidate makes a lot of sense to me as well. While he’s been healthy for 3 years, there’s evidence that TJ players decline faster than normal and his curveball heavy repertoire also is extra wear and tear (see Gordon, Tom). If they can get a cost controlled 1B or 2B I’d do it.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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How cheap is he going to be though? He was a very good reliever last year and because this is his final arb year he gets to use free agent comparables. That brings in some 10- figure contracts.

I think if they’re planning to go under $208, and thus not going to win, then Workman as a sell-high candidate makes a lot of sense to me as well. While he’s been healthy for 3 years, there’s evidence that TJ players decline faster than normal and his curveball heavy repertoire also is extra wear and tear (see Gordon, Tom). If they can get a cost controlled 1B or 2B I’d do it.
Gordon, Tom's best season was his 15th.
 

lexrageorge

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How cheap is he going to be though? He was a very good reliever last year and because this is his final arb year he gets to use free agent comparables. That brings in some 10- figure contracts.

I think if they’re planning to go under $208, and thus not going to win, then Workman as a sell-high candidate makes a lot of sense to me as well. While he’s been healthy for 3 years, there’s evidence that TJ players decline faster than normal and his curveball heavy repertoire also is extra wear and tear (see Gordon, Tom). If they can get a cost controlled 1B or 2B I’d do it.

Projected arb salary for Workman is $3.4M. Still cheap.

Agree that if they absolutely have to get under $208M for some inane reason, then it makes sense to trade him.
 

Plympton91

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Projected arb salary for Workman is $3.4M. Still cheap.

Agree that if they absolutely have to get under $208M for some inane reason, then it makes sense to trade him.
That seems low to me if he’s really in his final year of arb eligibility. Seems like he could easily argue Joe Kelly as a comp ($8 million) or maybe Trevor Rosenthal ($7.5 million) or at least Justin Wilson ($5 million).
 

nvalvo

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I don't think we can decide on Workman until we know more about the surrounding roster context.

If we're trading, say, Betts and Price and stepping back from contention for a year or two to rebuild the farm and reset the CBT penalty rate, then dealing a good, cost-controlled reliever like Workman for the best prospect he can fetch probably makes the most sense.

If, on the contrary, we're extending or retaining Betts (or otherwise aiming to field a contender, although I must say I'm skeptical that we can do that without Betts), we'll need a deep bullpen, and he's a useful piece, even if 2019 was likely a career year.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
That seems low to me if he’s really in his final year of arb eligibility. Seems like he could easily argue Joe Kelly as a comp ($8 million) or maybe Trevor Rosenthal ($7.5 million) or at least Justin Wilson ($5 million).
None of those numbers are correct according to BBref/Cot's, though Rosenthal is close ($7M, not $7.5M). [EDIT] And that $7M was a special case because Rosenthal had been released after he spent what would have been his arb3 year recovering from TJ. He had gotten $5.5M in his arb1 year as a newly-minted elite closer.

Kelly made $3.825M in arb3, not $8M, and he only made that much because he had started at $2.6M in arb1, which made sense at the time because he was then a starting pitcher. Wilson made $4.25M, not $5M, in arb3, and again that stems from the fact that he started arb at $1.525M, coming off a very good year, while Workman started arb at $635K because he had spent the previous year finishing his TJ rehab.

So in short, your examples on the whole make the MLBTR prediction for Workman sound about right.
 
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Plympton91

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None of those numbers are correct according to BBref/Cot's, though Rosenthal is close ($7M, not $7.5M). And Rosenthal got $7M in arb3 because he got $5.5M in arb1, because at that point he had just finished a season as one of the game's elite closers (45 saves). Kelly made $3.825M in arb3, not $8M, and he only made that much because he had started at $2.6M in arb1, which made sense at the time because he was then a starting pitcher. Wilson made $4.25M, not $5M, in arb3, and again that stems from the fact that he started arb at $1.525M, coming off a very good year, while Workman started arb at $635K because he had spent the previous year finishing his TJ rehab.

So in short, your examples on the whole make the MLBTR prediction for Workman sound about right.
Sorry, I was quoting what Kelly, Rosenthal, and Wilson signed for as free agents last off-season, not what they got in their last year of arbitration. My understanding is that in your final year of arb, you can compare to recent free agent contracts, not just recent arb awards. Workman was one of the best relievers in the game last year. I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest he gets paid more like an ace than a middle reliever. I know the scuttlebutt is that arbitrators haven’t gotten with the “relief ace” model and still count saves, but I’m guessing that’s got to do with their rules-based approach needing to catch up with the market than stubbornness. Every year people like Miller and Ottavino and Britton get big contracts despite low saves totals, the more the relief ace compensation will catch up in arbitration too.

For instance Kelvin Herrera got $5.325 for his arb3 award off a season he had a 2.72 ERA and 12 saves in 72 innings.

Dellin Betances got $5.1 million for his arb2 season (and $7.125 for arb3) ith a 2.68 ERA and 10 saves in 59 innings.

Luke Greggerson got $5.065 million in his arb3 year which was 2014
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Sorry, I was quoting what Kelly, Rosenthal, and Wilson signed for as free agents last off-season, not what they got in their last year of arbitration. My understanding is that in your final year of arb, you can compare to recent free agent contracts, not just recent arb awards. Workman was one of the best relievers in the game last year. I don’t think it’s crazy to suggest he gets paid more like an ace than a middle reliever. I know the scuttlebutt is that arbitrators haven’t gotten with the “relief ace” model and still count saves, but I’m guessing that’s got to do with their rules-based approach needing to catch up with the market than stubbornness. Every year people like Miller and Ottavino and Britton get big contracts despite low saves totals, the more the relief ace compensation will catch up in arbitration too.

For instance Kelvin Herrera got $5.325 for his arb3 award off a season he had a 2.72 ERA and 12 saves in 72 innings.
ls
Dellin Betances got $5.1 million for his arb2 season (and $7.125 for arb3) ith a 2.68 ERA and 10 saves in 59 innings.

Luke Greggerson got $5.065 million in his arb3 year which was 2014
Herrera's a good comp in some respects, but like Rosenthal, he had already been an outstanding setup guy for a couple of years at that point, which is why his arb2 salary was $2.55M (actually negotiated as part of a 2-year deal with the Royals to avoid arb1). So he basically doubled his arb2 salary in arb3. MLBTR's prediction for Workman is pretty much tripling his arb2 salary, because he started so low. Up until this year he's been an average-ish middle reliever, a useful but relatively fungible puzzle piece.

Likewise, Betances began his arb years with a $3 million salary, thanks to elite performance in his pre-arb years as a setup guy. Gregerson, similar story.

Looks like the lesson here may be that the baseline for your raise matters as much as who your comps are. You're not going to go from $1M to $5M with the same performance that got some other guy from $3M to $5M. (Or to make basically the same point a different way, maybe the arbitrators don't look only at your most recent year in deciding who your comps are.)
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Thought this was fairly interesting as we wait for offseason moves:

Max Freeze tried to figure out 'earned home runs' this past season, which hitters got the luckiest and the most unlucky, mostly using Barrel Percentages:


Sox on the unluckiest list:

Benintendi (the blurb on him is especially interesting)
Betts

Sox on the luckiest list:

Vazquez

Edit: I deleted some back and forth about the site not loading because I messaged him on Twitter and he says it should be fixed now.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Sep 7, 2013
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So with JDM apparently not opting out, and the first proverbial domino falling (or rather, not falling), what now? $208 doesn't seem possible now without moving Mookie, but without knowing if that number is an actual goal or just a negotiation tactic from ownership, it's hard to guess what constraints Bloom is working in.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
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Maine
Doesn't Martinez electing to stay suggest there's a limited market for him? Sure, a team trading for him presumably gets him cheaper than if he'd opted out and signed as a free agent, but they're giving up assets instead. And of course, he still has that second opt-out looming so they might be trading for one year of JD.

To me, trading one of these two is signalling a punt of 2020 at the least. Trading both of them, simply to cut payroll (because no one is going to buy any other excuse for doing it), is screaming "we're punting 2020" to everyone. Can they still be a decent team without those two? Sure, especially if the pitching comes through. But they're not going to get much in the way of building blocks for the future for two talented but very expensive players who are both on one-year deals. They're also unlikely to get players in exchange that can contribute immediately.

Frankly, I think the better decision all around would be to forget the idea of getting under $208M (if that's even a goal), stay somewhere in the $225-235M range, and go all in for 2020. They'll get their savings and their reset in 2021 if JD opts out and Betts signs elsewhere. As much as losing Betts will hurt, I really think losing him after a good faith effort to re-sign him next winter is less of a PR blow than choosing to ship him out for pennies on the dollar this winter.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Dec 19, 2009
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Assuming they don't want to deal him to a division rival, what do Texas and Chicago have to offer that would be worth exploring a trade for? Chicago seems to be inching toward contention and so may not want to part with anything particularly valuable, especially if they have to work out a new deal with him. I think Texas is a little further behind (with Oakland, Houston, and a soon-to-be-possibly-resurgent LA of A still in their division); if Texas is truly interested in acquiring a Sox SP, would a package deal blockbuster make sense?

Maybe the best solution, if a trade is in his future, is to ship him off to an NL team that needs some power and is willing to sacrifice a little OF defense to get it.
 

sean1562

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Sep 17, 2011
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Assuming they don't want to deal him to a division rival, what do Texas and Chicago have to offer that would be worth exploring a trade for? Chicago seems to be inching toward contention and so may not want to part with anything particularly valuable, especially if they have to work out a new deal with him. I think Texas is a little further behind (with Oakland, Houston, and a soon-to-be-possibly-resurgent LA of A still in their division); if Texas is truly interested in acquiring a Sox SP, would a package deal blockbuster make sense?

Maybe the best solution, if a trade is in his future, is to ship him off to an NL team that needs some power and is willing to sacrifice a little OF defense to get it.
Im not sure which teams would be willing to do that in the NL. The Cardinals after they lose Ozuna? Dbacks seem unlikely considering we beat them out for him to begin with, and they didnt seem terribly interested even for his best years. The Phillies if they dont get one of Cole/Rendon?
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
1,621
I continue to cross my fingers that Bloom can figure this out. I want both JDM and Betts on my team.

Would either of these work?

1. Trade Price to the Cubs for Heyward (saves $8m in AAV; adds another year under contract) Heyward takes right, Betts moves to center. Sign Avisail Garcia and turn Chavis, Benintendi and Bradley into two good starters (Archer? Desclafani? Civale?). Sign two of cheap guys like Cron, Brad Miller, Dozier, Zobrist, or Sogard to rotate though 1B/2B.

2. Trade Price to LAD for Pollock and Kelly, saving $10+ million in AAV. Follow the same plan as above, adding Workman to the trade chits.

I like either of these more than trading Eovaldi/Price for Choo and/or Odor. Odor is already pretty bad but would be even worse hitting in Fenway.
 

sean1562

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Sep 17, 2011
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I would argue against the idea that archer is a good starter. He is older than porcello, night as well just re sign him