2019-20 Offseason Discussion

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
1,940
But we're getting a guy who provides 92.4% of the speed of a 100mph reliever at less than 1/10 the cost!

In all seriousness, he seems to be a hard sinkerballer, for which 92 isn't bad but he is not exactly throwing bowling balls either.

To me it looks like Valdez has a Pedro-esque delivery with a very wiry frame. Actually perhaps a little more Ramon than Pedro.
It was only 16 innings, but Phillips Valdez’s sinker had an elite spin rate last year, for what it’s worth. Makes sense to me that a guy who can throw that pitch with above-average velocity and pair it with a change up might be an interesting project.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
7,535
So maybe "filthy" would be more apropos than "hard-throwing".
Maybe we should move beyond the limited phraseology we have and break new ground. Perhaps a high spin-rate, good velocity fastball paired with a solid change-up should be referred to as "funkadelic." Just throwing that out there.
 

ledsox

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 14, 2005
293
Xander was interviewed on MLB and mentioned that he hurt himself when he was back home and that's why he is not playing. He didn't give details. First I've heard of this. Anyone know what happened?
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
17,384
Rogers Park
Xander was interviewed on MLB and mentioned that he hurt himself when he was back home and that's why he is not playing. He didn't give details. First I've heard of this. Anyone know what happened?
He's been dealing with a residual ankle injury all camp. It's been covered in the media; it doesn't sound too bad.
 

nattysez

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
4,665
Interestingly, Theo is running into the same issues in Chicago that the Sox are. This was clear from their do-nothing offseason, but Theo's now stating explicitly what's to come.

And the Cubs begin this season with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber free agents two years away — the same for Jon Lester and Anthony Rizzo should their 2021 options be picked up. Attempts to extend Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber and Ian Happ have failed. And the Cubs know they will not keep all of them long term and send their payroll to $300 million or more.

To try to diversify how they spend their money and deepen a depleted farm system, the Cubs particularly shopped Bryant and Contreras in the offseason. For now, though, it looks as if the Cubs will begin the season with their core group. But the Cubs know players have much greater value if they are available for two postseason runs rather than one (like Betts), so a July appraisal looms.

“It puts us in a position in which we have to be very objective about what we have,” Epstein said. “In the middle of this season, if we have a legit World Series contender, that is really meaningful. But if we don’t, you can’t be blind to the realities of the following 18 months.”

Translation: If the Cubs think they can win it all, they will keep it together. If not, they could be one of the biggest sellers of July.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
2,909
They could do a full reset and be pretty well set for 2022. Kind of a fortunate situation that many of their FAs hit the market the same year.Trading away a lot of that talent would get them a massive haul of prospects
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
13,812
Finally we get another minor league catcher named Jhon, we've been out of them ever since we traded Jhon Nunez.

Jhonny Pereda is a different guy than longtime major leaguer Jhonny Peralta, who we signed but who never made it out of Pawtucket with us.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
Pereda has fine K/BB numbers but apparently dismal quality-of-contact; no power and a low BABIP despite high GB rates. Sounds like a solid backstop. He was mentioned under "Bench Bats" in a FG top-31 Cubs prospects feature from last offseason, and they had this to say:

Pereda might get popped in the Rule 5 draft because he’s an okay catcher with an approach. Long term, he projects as a third catcher.
So, Dan Butler v. 2.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
So astounding to look at that carefully. A 2.20 ERA for probably the most offense-inflated seven-year stretch in the game's history. Most years in that stretch, the MLB average ERA was more than twice Pedro's.

Another way to look at that last point: an ERA+ of 200 means, roughly speaking, that you are twice as good at preventing runs as the average pitcher. 31 pitchers have done that at least once while throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. 25 of the 31 did it only once. That includes people like Bob Gibson, Lefty Grove, and Cy Young.

Three pitchers have done it twice: Christy Mathewson, Greg Maddux, and Zack Greinke.

One pitcher did it three times: Roger Clemens. And one did it four times: Walter Johnson.

Pedro Martinez did it five times.
 

lurker42

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
145
So astounding to look at that carefully. A 2.20 ERA for probably the most offense-inflated seven-year stretch in the game's history. Most years in that stretch, the MLB average ERA was more than twice Pedro's.

Another way to look at that last point: an ERA+ of 200 means, roughly speaking, that you are twice as good at preventing runs as the average pitcher. 31 pitchers have done that at least once while throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. 25 of the 31 did it only once. That includes people like Bob Gibson, Lefty Grove, and Cy Young.

Three pitchers have done it twice: Christy Mathewson, Greg Maddux, and Zack Greinke.

One pitcher did it three times: Roger Clemens. And one did it four times: Walter Johnson.

Pedro Martinez did it five times.
My favorite Pedro stat: In 2000, he had an ERA of 1.74. Best in the AL. Second best in the AL: Clemens at 3.70. After that: Mussina and Sirotka at 3.79.

He won the ERA title by damn near 2 runs/game.

(FWIW, Kevin Brown led the NL (in Dodger stadium) at 2.58, followed by Unit at 2.64).

It's sad it didn't last longer, but healthy Pedro was the most dominant pitcher ever.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,869
St. Louis, MO
My favorite Pedro stat: In 2000, he had an ERA of 1.74. Best in the AL. Second best in the AL: Clemens at 3.70. After that: Mussina and Sirotka at 3.79.

He won the ERA title by damn near 2 runs/game.

(FWIW, Kevin Brown led the NL (in Dodger stadium) at 2.58, followed by Unit at 2.64).

It's sad it didn't last longer, but healthy Pedro was the most dominant pitcher ever.
By a healthy margin.
 

donutogre

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,140
Philadelphia
It never ceases to be hilarious how this board takes any excuse to pour over Pedro's stats and be amazed at how fucking good he was. Believe me, I am not displeased to see these posts.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
24,590
Hingham, MA
It never ceases to be hilarious how this board takes any excuse to pour over Pedro's stats and be amazed at how fucking good he was. Believe me, I am not displeased to see these posts.
313:37 is something that I will never forget off the top of my head.
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
519
It never ceases to be hilarious how this board takes any excuse to pour over Pedro's stats and be amazed at how fucking good he was. Believe me, I am not displeased to see these posts.
It never ceases to amaze me that i need to be reminded how dominant he was. I remember him as by and far the best, but the stats always puts it in context.
 

effectivelywild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
293
It never ceases to amaze me that i need to be reminded how dominant he was. I remember him as by and far the best, but the stats always puts it in context.
Imagine his numbers if Enrique Wilson (career wRC+ 62) hadn't gone 11 for 25 against him (H/T Fangraphs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-keston-hiura-can-hit-but-the-book-hed-write-would-be-boring/)


It actually begs the question: What is the most lopsided random matchup (min 20 AB) between batters vs pitchers (versus careeer or season long numbers).
 

canyoubelieveit

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 8, 2006
6,485
Imagine his numbers if Enrique Wilson (career wRC+ 62) hadn't gone 11 for 25 against him (H/T Fangraphs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-keston-hiura-can-hit-but-the-book-hed-write-would-be-boring/)


It actually begs the question: What is the most lopsided random matchup (min 20 AB) between batters vs pitchers (versus careeer or season long numbers).
I remember reading about this many years ago, just looked it up and now copying / pasting below:

Bob Uecker arguably the worst hitter ever with a lifetime .200 average, had one pitcher he could hit. That pitcher was the most dominant of the era, Sandy Koufax. Uecker's lifetime average in over 50 At Bats against Koufax is .429.
 

SemperFidelisSox

suzyn
SoSH Member
May 25, 2008
20,731
Boston, MA
The headline in the NY Post scared me at first, but Sam Kennedy makes clear the changes would be to the uniforms themselves, not logos or word scripts.

 

allmanbro

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
138
Portland, Maine
The headline in the NY Post scared me at first, but Sam Kennedy makes clear the changes would be to the uniforms themselves, not logos or word scripts.

I thought the same thing when I saw a similar blurb elsewhere. The longer quote there (taken from the original Athletic article) almost seems to suggest a moneyball type advantage to be had, and that MLB was substantially behind (for example) the NBA, in using tech/design/fit of uniforms to improve athlete performance. I easily see how modern light, sweat-wicking, and breathable materials are huge improvements over the heavy polyester of the 80s, or the wool of the first half of the century. But I have a hard time seeing what relative changes we might make now that would actually matter. The CBS thing I linked suggests getting rid of belts, but I think they are just guessing. I'm curious if anyone knows more.

Of course, it the players just like them more, that's enough.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
50,966
I thought it was an issue only if the season was canceled. As long as there was/is a season it will reset. At least that's what I've been led to believe.
The full schedule has to be played from here, if they're forced to end the season early because of the virus, it does not reset.

 

grimshaw

the new rudy
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,490
Portland
Obviously it was tongue in cheek, but Moncada just signed a 5 year 70 mill extension with a 14mill club option in spring training with only two years of service time and had a comparable (both at 5.9 fwar) season to Devers. Devers is 16 months younger but I wonder if he'd bite given all the risk.

Even with the unknown, $14 mill a year is less than 10% of their payroll.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
50,966

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
17,384
Rogers Park
The Padres have a wildly good farm system, likely a pending 40 man crunch, ownership that wants to cut payroll, and a lot of money tied up in a few long-term contracts.

Myers is owed a lot of money — 4/$80m or so — but because his deal is an extension that included a couple of inexpensive years, his AAV is actually pretty low, in the range of $14m. And we learned through Alex Speier's digging that any money the Padres sent along would be averaged only against the future years of the deal, making it easy to get that down to $8 or 9m with a modest contribution from SD.

The thinking was that after sending Price/Betts west, we could basically buy a few prospects who would be top-10 types for us by taking on Myers' underwater contract without a huge hit to our CBT. Then, maybe the friendlier parks of the AL East revive his bat and he becomes an acceptable-if-expensive role player as a Steve Pearce-type RHH OF/1B/DH, or maybe we DFA him and eat the money.

edit: I would absolutely do this, FWIW. I'd want to see if by eating all the money, we could get Luis Patino (a very good RHSP prospect in AA) and one of their half dozen interesting infield prospects, like Owen Miller.
 
Last edited:

grimshaw

the new rudy
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,490
Portland
edit: I would absolutely do this, FWIW. I'd want to see if by eating all the money, we could get Luis Patino (a very good RHSP prospect in AA) and one of their half dozen interesting infield prospects, like Owen Miller.
I would venture that we'll see several of these sorts of deals for teams that are desperate to shed salary. I would absolutely be on board with the Sox taking on that strategy for a player or two. Win now deals just aren't going to happen around the league with the uncertainty of a cancellation and/or potential work stoppage.