2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

SemperFidelisSox

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Is Cashman calling the dugout phone? No, of course not. Is the analytics department “suggesting” Sanchez hit behind Stanton? Yeah, probably. And I don’t think Boone is one to upset the applecart.
 

jon abbey

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Right, but the problem is that he is demonstrably not good at the decisions that do need to be made during a game, as I said in my first post on this. If he was managing the Twins or the Reds, there would be more time for him to better learn the job, but NY can't afford to waste another full season if he doesn't get a lot better quickly.

(FWIW, I know most baseball fans criticize their managers a lot, but I very rarely criticized Girardi. I wasn't thrilled with the Boone hire based on what I knew, and he spent last season living up (down) to my expectations of 'meh', which again, is just not good enough for this collection of talent.)
 

jon abbey

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Back to on the field personnel moves, Cashman has been quiet since the Happ deal, close to a week ago now. He still needs to move Gray and add the two relievers he promised, plus the Machado meeting is tomorrow.
 

hbk72777

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They signed (agreed) Tex on Dec 23rd, and I have a gut feeling that that's about when they'll sign Machado. Probably the 24th

Cashman has always been unorthodox
 

jon abbey

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They signed (agreed) Tex on Dec 23rd, and I have a gut feeling that that's about when they'll sign Machado. Probably the 24th

Cashman has always been unorthodox
The price is the key, I've been saying since the summer that I'd offer him 10/280 with at least one optout and if that is not enough, maybe Cashman goes in a different direction. $280M would be the biggest FA deal in history (pending Harper), Stanton was under contract and A-Rod's re-up with NY was 10/275. Bring in A-Rod and Beltran and Judge and Stanton and whoever else to the meeting room and go full Warriors. Then when that works, it's time to be creative with Bryce.... :)

(Lot of conspiracy theories going around about NY's lack of public interest in Bryce but I don't think Cashman is playing games there as I've said a lot. The one thing I have yet to see rumored is what if Harper told Boras going into this 'get me to the Yankees, I don't care how' and Cashman eventually says something like 'fine, 3/90 with a player opt-out after each year, take it or leave it'. Admittedly that is largely or entirely just my wishful thinking (he types preemptively) but Bryce is a crazy dude, I say it's a non-zero chance until he signs elsewhere.)
 

Ed Hillel

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Machado at 280 and Harper on a 3 year deal? Cashman would be executive of the decade.
Machado at 280 isn’t some sort of coup. He’s a 5-6 WAR player and I doubt he ages all that well with his frame, especially in the field. That’s a great deal for Machado.

Harper at 30 million isn’t anything to write home about, either. 8 million per WAR?
 

edoug

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Machado at 280 and Harper on a 3 year deal? Cashman would be executive of the decade.
And burned at the stake because some serious black magic would've had to been practiced. Grienke,Kershaw, and Price will make more than 30 million a season for the next 3 years. And there's Trout, who is under contract for 2 more years. I don't think Machado or Harper want to be the, at best 5th highest player in the league. Whether they're worth it or not.
 

jon abbey

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Machado at 280 and Harper on a 3 year deal? Cashman would be executive of the decade.
Only if he coupled those with a deal stapling Ellsbury's remaining 22/22/5 to Clint Frazier (I am sure someone would take this, Frazier would be a top 20 prospect now if he was still eligible), essentially paying $8M for two years of upgrading Frazier to Harper.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Anyway, short-term it seems like Beltran's role may be to help recruit Machado, they share an agent in Lozano. Hopefully Beltran is in that meeting in NY tomorrow.
Do the Yankees really need anyone to help them recruit Machado to NY? I thought it's been said before that folks close to Machado have repeatedly said he wanted to go to NY. And NY clearly wants him and have a boatload of cash to throw at him.
 

jon abbey

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Do the Yankees really need anyone to help them recruit Machado to NY? I thought it's been said before that folks close to Machado have repeatedly said he wanted to go to NY. And NY clearly wants him and have a boatload of cash to throw at him.
It’s unlikely they will be the high bidder on him, so that’s the recruiting part. I guess we’ll know a lot more about the specifics once it’s done.
 

jon abbey

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So Machado seems to be down to three teams, he met the White Sox on Monday, Yankees today, Phillies tomorrow, and hopefully a decision won't take long after that, even if it takes a while to finish the details.

So if NY get Machado, I think Tulowitzki becomes an interesting possibility assuming NY thinks he isn't cooked. His minimal cost would make it easier for them to go all-out on relievers and still stay under $246M ($28M per year for Machado wouuld put them around $216M not counting Gray) and his presence would make it easier to start off Machado at 3B, bumping Andujar to DH and Stanton to LF, which would be the best use of this personnel IMO.

Then even if Tulo doesn't work out, it's easier to replace him with a different SS than moving everyone back. They might still be better off with a pure defensive guy like Iglesias or Hechavarria but it's not hard to find those midseason if you are OK with defensive only (NY even has Kyle Holder in AA, not on the 40 man but not picked in the rule 5, and supposedly as good a defensive SS as there is currently).
 

Big John

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Thairo Estrada is supposed to be pretty good defensively as well.
So if the Yankees do sign Machado, what happens when Gregorius gets back?
 

jon abbey

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Thairo Estrada is supposed to be pretty good defensively as well.
So if the Yankees do sign Machado, what happens when Gregorius gets back?
It depends what's happening before Didi is back, but I doubt Machado will be the SS even before that.
 

Big John

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Wasn't Machado saying at one point that he only wanted to play short?

Another option if Machado signs elsewhere is a guy like Jed Lowrie, with Torres moving over to the left side. Yes, Lowrie is 35, but he's been fairly durable and they could use another lefty bat.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Wasn't Machado saying at one point that he only wanted to play short?

Another option if Machado signs elsewhere is a guy like Jed Lowrie, with Torres moving over to the left side. Yes, Lowrie is 35, but he's been fairly durable and they could use another lefty bat.
Did I just read "fairly durable" used to describe Jed Lowrie?
 

Rough Carrigan

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Wasn't Machado saying at one point that he only wanted to play short?

Another option if Machado signs elsewhere is a guy like Jed Lowrie, with Torres moving over to the left side. Yes, Lowrie is 35, but he's been fairly durable and they could use another lefty bat.
Machado only has one season as a shortstop in MLB and the stats are less reliable with just one season's data but the Fielding Bible had Machado as -16 plays as a shortstop last year. Ouch.

As a third baseman, his numbers have tailed off since his otherworldly 2013 of +47 plays to +6(partial season), +18, +12 and +8. It's still pretty clear both by the eyes and numbers that he's a very good third baseman, just not +47 good.
 

jon abbey

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Machado only has one season as a shortstop in MLB and the stats are less reliable with just one season's data but the Fielding Bible had Machado as -16 plays as a shortstop last year. Ouch.
They’re even less reliable if you start to break down a single season, but he was much better with LAD at SS than he was with BAL, presumably much better scouting/positioning helped.
 

Rough Carrigan

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They’re even less reliable if you start to break down a single season, but he was much better with LAD at SS than he was with BAL, presumably much better scouting/positioning helped.
Another explanation is that he might have been going through the motions a little bit with the O's knowing he was going to be traded. It would be completely natural psychologically, even if he had no intention of dogging it with the O's. He was 30+ games out of first by the time he left the O's. With the Dodgers he was immediately in a race for the playoffs. With whomever he signs, he'll be in the spotlight and he'll be ON.
 

jon abbey

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So the word being mildly leaked is that NY will only go to 8 years on Machado, which I think translates to no more than 8/240, but maybe the strategy is to eventually 'give in' to 10/280 or maybe 10/300 as an absolute ceiling (also I could see 8/256 if he preferred that). If the Phillies go decidedly over that, say 10/330, that would make things difficult. There is a ton of remaining talent out there that PHI could spread their cash around a lot more effectively, one would think, as they have plenty of holes still even after McCutchen and Segura, but we'll see.
 
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jon abbey

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With Miller and Soria off the board, thinking/hoping NY will get two of Ottavino/Britton/Robertson.

I was figuring Britton to PHI (before that tweet) and the other two to NY but Kimbrel is a wild card in all of this, because if all that happened, DD might get him at a discount from what he’s been rumored for.
 

Murderer's Crow

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With Miller and Soria off the board, thinking/hoping NY will get two of Ottavino/Britton/Robertson.

I was figuring Britton to PHI (before that tweet) and the other two to NY but Kimbrel is a wild card in all of this, because if all that happened, DD might get him at a discount from what he’s been rumored for.
I prefer Ottavino and Britton. I think Britton comes back really strong with the cobwebs shaken off. Robertson has a great history in NY but I worry about his age and stuff.

edit: I could see myself walking this back. Ottavino also at 33, unproven in NY...Like you said, 2 of 3 would be great but its hard to rank them.
 

jon abbey

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Parker Bridwell claimed by the Angels, see ya.

And news came out that Sabathia had a stent put in his heart a couple weeks ago, all is now well and he’s expected to be at full strength in spring training. I think this sounds a bit worse than it is, Kenley Jansen had the same surgery after the season.
 

jon abbey

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Downstream implications of the Reds deal is one less suitor likely for Gray
I think if anything it’s maybe the opposite? Puig and Kemp are only under contract for one year and CIN’s rotation looks very thin after Wood/Castillo/Roark, but not sure what Cashman has in mind with Gray.
 

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I think if anything it’s maybe the opposite? Puig and Kemp are only under contract for one year and CIN’s rotation looks very thin after Wood/Castillo/Roark, but not sure what Cashman has in mind with Gray.
Agreed. Reds offense is good, bullpen has pieces, adding Gray to that rotation gets them closer.
 

chawson

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I think if anything it’s maybe the opposite? Puig and Kemp are only under contract for one year and CIN’s rotation looks very thin after Wood/Castillo/Roark, but not sure what Cashman has in mind with Gray.
Hard to know what they’re doing over there in Cincinnati, I’ve seen them as the most backwards FO (non-Marlins edition) in baseball for the last decade.

I had been dreading the Gray~Gennett swap you pitched awhile back, but even if they’re still interested in a deal with Cashman, it does seem less likely that Gennett would be on the move, especially now with Murphy, Kinsler, and Descalso off the board.

But if by “we’re not done” Nick Krall means they’re about to sign Dozier, then who knows.
 

doc

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I just saw this, this is a HOLY SHIT! story that seems to be flying under the radar, 38 yo's especially athletes are not supposed to be needing stents to open up their heart arteries. Too bad he's not in the bullpen though, he could be a real heart attack closer.

Don't we have a Yankee fan cardiologist or CT surgeon on the board?
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, not ideal. He has already announced it is his final season, they do have Montgomery maybe back mid-season and guys like Loaisiga and German and King waiting for a chance, but you have to think the odds are up a bit on NY adding a FA swingman/6th starter with experience. Kikuchi's window to decide is up January 2, NY has definitely checked in with him at least.
 

jon abbey

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I had been dreading the Gray~Gennett swap you pitched awhile back, but even if they’re still interested in a deal with Cashman, it does seem less likely that Gennett would be on the move, especially now with Murphy, Kinsler, and Descalso off the board.
I think it depends where they want to use Senzel, and if it is 2B, Gennett for Gray and a prospect fills a hole for them without opening a different one or adding money. If they think Senzel can handle CF, then they're a lot less likely to move Scooter, agreed.

But since I initially broached that, Tulo is now on the market for minimum salary, so moving Gray for something else (an athletic young OF with options is what Cashman has been going for from reports), giving Tulo a shot at SS and keeping Gleyber at his better defensive position of 2B might be a better use of assets, gain the $9M in salary and up two prospects plus better D. This is only if they get Machado (3B) though, otherwise the plan needs to be revamped.
 

jon abbey

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I'd be more nervous about the reliever market thinning out if I didn't think probably all three of Ottavino, Robertson and Britton want to come to NY. Why Cashman hasn't locked down whichever two of those he likes most already is beyond me, but in Brian I trust (for now, heh). Maybe he just wants to make sure Kimbrel goes elsewhere first... :)
 

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I'd be more nervous about the reliever market thinning out if I didn't think probably all three of Ottavino, Robertson and Britton want to come to NY. Why Cashman hasn't locked down whichever two of those he likes most already is beyond me, but in Brian I trust (for now, heh). Maybe he just wants to make sure Kimbrel goes elsewhere first... :)
I thought Britton said he wanted to go back to closing. No?
 

jon abbey

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Britton has only said nice things about NY and Heyman mentioned NY and PHI as the current leaders on him yesterday.

Robertson though it's true that he might prefer to close elsewhere, I still am guessing that's what Mrs. Varitek let slip yesterday on Twitter. All three of those guys are going to get bigger deals than Miller (2/25), Familia got 3/30 and while that was probably a bit high, I think we're looking at 3/36 minimum on those three. As of this minute, I think I go Britton/Ottavino if possible even if I know that means Robertson to Boston.
 

jon abbey

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Oh, I missed this from this afternoon, George King isn’t too reliable but FWIW:

“According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Red Sox believe David Robertson isn’t likely to sign with them. Boston was very interested in the former Yankees reliever and current free agent, who many believe is looking for a three-year deal with clubs wanting to keep it at two. The Phillies have also shown an interest in Robertson, who prefers to remain in the Northeast. The Yankees also are looking for two relievers.”
 

hbk72777

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Oh, I missed this from this afternoon, George King isn’t too reliable but FWIW:

“According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Red Sox believe David Robertson isn’t likely to sign with them. Boston was very interested in the former Yankees reliever and current free agent, who many believe is looking for a three-year deal with clubs wanting to keep it at two. The Phillies have also shown an interest in Robertson, who prefers to remain in the Northeast. The Yankees also are looking for two relievers.”

3 years at what price?

He would be at the top of my list, as he's proven that he can pitch in NY. So many relievers/pitchers can't, for whatever reason
 

DanoooME

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So the word being mildly leaked is that NY will only go to 8 years on Machado, which I think translates to no more than 8/240, but maybe the strategy is to eventually 'give in' to 10/280 or maybe 10/300 as an absolute ceiling (also I could see 8/256 if he preferred that). If the Phillies go decidedly over that, say 10/330, that would make things difficult. There is a ton of remaining talent out there that PHI could spread their cash around a lot more effectively, one would think, as they have plenty of holes still even after McCutchen and Segura, but we'll see.
If they sign Machado, I think their offense is pretty good, they could use an upgrade in the rotation and everyone needs bullpen help, but their lineup will be pretty solid:

Segura SS
Hernandez 2B
Machado 3B
Hoskins 1B
McCutchen RF
Herrera CF
Williams LF
Alfaro C
DuJour P

Edit: Bench has Kingery, who might replace Hernandez, Altherr or Quinn will make a decent 4th OF, plus the Machado signing frees up Franco as a trade chip.
 

jon abbey

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Looking back at the start of this thread in October since nothing is happening, and with regard to the recent Boone discussion here and people wondering why Yankee fans don't like him (admittedly you were quite preoccupied collectively in the wake of the ALDS when this thread started), you can read the first page or two and we talk about it some. Firing him was my top offseason request in the first post, and when I was asked to be replaced by who, Beltran was one of my two names (post below), yay Brian.

I mean, obviously no idea, but I don't think it's necessarily an experience issue. I will answer with the same two names I liked last winter, Raul Ibanez (NY tried to interview him and he wasn't interested) and Carlos Beltran (he had just retired and NY ended up interviewing him but didn't choose him). My impression is that both of them are much more tuned into the flow of a game, and if Boone hasn't learned that after this many decades around the sport, he's not going to suddenly learn it next year.
Ibanez works for the Dodgers currently in a similar role to the one NY just hired Beltran for, 'special advisor'. From what I know, I think I would prefer Ibanez of the two but I will take Beltran in a nanosecond over Boone. I am trying to decide who it is unfair to if I compare Boone to Mark Jackson, neither are good at either job but both keep somehow failing upward and getting more chances.

Also to touch on an old Yankee tradition, if Boone struggles early on this season, I might consider hiring Girardi back, if that is an option for Cashman. Girardi as manager and Beltran as bench coach, I think that would be a 2-3 game improvement right there in what promises to be a vicious division race. I always liked Girardi and from what I've seen the time off has been good for him, he is very smart and I am guessing would now be very willing to work however Cashman wanted. I will probably start a thread about that sometime.

Anyway, you're welcome for the followup, Brian, I know you have a lot on your plate currently. Just send me some tickets... :)