2014 Binkywagon Thread: Eck's binky wins a truck

mulluysavage · Aug 17, 2014

JJ Returns.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extra_points/2014/08/reports_patriots_bolster_tight_ends_group_by_re-si.html

Probably just brain-eating roster-fodder, an undead TE staggering around until Gronk takes the bulk of the snaps, in week 1 methinks.

wutang112878 · Aug 21, 2014

Some interesting stats on Malcom Butler. According to his stats from West Alabama. In the small sample we have seen here he has forced fumbles and has had a few picks in practice and was in position to get one (just couldnt pull it in) in the Washington game IIRC. At West Alabama he had 7 picks in 23 games and just 2 picks last year in 11 games. He did however have a lot of passes defended. But I just find it amazing that the Pats do enough scouting to find a guy like this in D2 who doesnt have a ton of picks in college. Really amazing

wutang112878 · Aug 21, 2014

Thanks. I agree the pass defended is a better indicator but I also think if I was looking at D2 stats for a corner I would either think the PD #s were inflated because according to WA's stats in 2013 there were another 3 guys that had 10+ PDs and in 2012 there were another 2 guys that had 10+ I just wouldnt trust their numbers and probably would just questioned why Butler didnt consistently have more picks if he was always around the ball that much and then just moved on.

I'd love to know how exactly they found him. According to this the Pats special teams coach knew his coach at WA but I'm really curious as to what it was that had them make that call in the first place.

bakahump · Aug 21, 2014

I guess I always took it for granted as well that if Player X had a bunch of picks in 2005, then in 2006 QBs and Offenses in general where going to "go away from him". That would in turn cause his "bunch of Picks" to become 2.

j44thor · Aug 21, 2014

SeoulSoxFan said:
Nice find Wutang. To me the passes defended rate is more important than the # of picks, which could be random (as discussed elsewhere on this board).

And I agree -- the fact that NE consistently find these lower-round UDFA guys who can contribute cannot be mere luck or stumbling across a "gem".

Couldn't a great deal of it be luck and to some extent a numbers game. Certainly NE isn't the only benefactor from UDFA's, just look at Burfict with CIN or Arian Foster with HOU or go back a bit further and you have Kurt Warner. I think NE has done a solid job with UDFA's but I'd be curious to see if they bring in more UDFA's than other teams and what the actual value NE's UDFA's have provided compared to league average. NE seems to do a good job of building depth with UDFA's but I can't really recall any home run type signings on the level of Burfict or Foster.

wutang112878 · Aug 21, 2014

bakahump said:
I guess I always took it for granted as well that if Player X had a bunch of picks in 2005, then in 2006 QBs and Offenses in general where going to "go away from him". That would in turn cause his "bunch of Picks" to become 2.

I definitely subscribe to this theory as well, but if you dig into their data some more I would have been curious why Otha Foster was able to have 4 picks and 7 PDs in 2011 and follow that up with 6 picks and 12 PDs in 2012 The more I dig into their numbers the more I would have thought they were just suspect and would have stopped 'wasting my time'.

j44thor said:
Couldn't a great deal of it be luck and to some extent a numbers game. Certainly NE isn't the only benefactor from UDFA's, just look at Burfict with CIN or Arian Foster with HOU or go back a bit further and you have Kurt Warner. I think NE has done a solid job with UDFA's but I'd be curious to see if they bring in more UDFA's than other teams and what the actual value NE's UDFA's have provided compared to league average. NE seems to do a good job of building depth with UDFA's but I can't really recall any home run type signings on the level of Burfict or Foster.

I think they typically sign something like 10 to 12 guys, and pretty much every year 1 of them makes the 53 man roster out of camp. An 10% or 8% hit rate is pretty amazing. I cant remember where I read it but I swear I once saw something on the hit rate by round and I have to believe in the 7th round it was less than 10%, I have a feeling its around 3-5% So it might not be a huge value thing for the franchise but finding a guy who will be this cheap and who can actually be worthy of a roster spot and doing that consistently is mind blowing.

Saints Rest · Aug 21, 2014

wutang112878 said:
I think they typically sign something like 10 to 12 guys, and pretty much every year 1 of them makes the 53 man roster out of camp. An 10% or 8% hit rate is pretty amazing. I cant remember where I read it but I swear I once saw something on the hit rate by round and I have to believe in the 7th round it was less than 10%, I have a feeling its around 3-5% So it might not be a huge value thing for the franchise but finding a guy who will be this cheap and who can actually be worthy of a roster spot and doing that consistently is mind blowing.

And there may be a chicken/egg effect here (Belichicken and the egg?) -- one thing that makes UDFA's different from late-round picks is that they have some say in where they sign. So if I am a UDFA, I'm going to want to sign A) where there might be an opening at my position and B) with a team that is more likely to give a fair shake to UDFA's. The Pats' track record in the latter is pretty good.

bakahump · Aug 21, 2014

I definitely subscribe to this theory as well, but if you dig into their data some more I would have been curious why Otha Foster was able to have 4 picks and 7 PDs in 2011 and follow that up with 6 picks and 12 PDs in 2012 The more I dig into their numbers the more I would have thought they were just suspect and would have stopped 'wasting my time'.

Thought about that as well. Every situation is different...but a couple thoughts..

1. Dude is simply good. So even in more limited opportunities (Ie teams actually do "go away from him"), his experience (gained in part the previous year) made up for it and he capitalized on those fewer opportunities.
2. His running mate CB was good as well and there was a "Damned if you do damned if you dont" thing going on.
3. He constantly matched up with the opponents best WR. Offense is going to try to go to that star WR regardless of the reputation of the guy covering him (Think Rice covered by Deion.) allowing CB to make plays.
3a. Defense coach was very good at putting him in a position where the defense couldnt avoid him (Maybe as a CFer or maybe doubling the other side creating a "My Island" situation where offenses still felt they had the advantage and went at him)
3b. Defense front was stout /good Pass Rush caused rushed throws he was able to take advantage of.

Just some random thoughts that seemed to fit the theory.

lambeau · Aug 21, 2014

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24669420/overunder-looking-at-20-nfl-players-statistical-projections

James White projected at 700 rushing yards this season by Prisco (CBS) relayed by Reiss.

wutang112878 · Aug 21, 2014

Saints Rest said:
And there may be a chicken/egg effect here (Belichicken and the egg?) -- one thing that makes UDFA's different from late-round picks is that they have some say in where they sign. So if I am a UDFA, I'm going to want to sign A) where there might be an opening at my position and B) with a team that is more likely to give a fair shake to UDFA's. The Pats' track record in the latter is pretty good.

You're definitely onto to something there, but there is another Patriots effect as well. The Patriots roster is very good, Bill builds tremendous depth and they dont have salary cap problems. If we put the fair shake thing aside and we just look at the opportunity the back end of the roster guys the UDFA is competing against are going to be much better than say the ones on the Jaguars. Then while the Pats might give you a fair shake in that they might keep an UDFA over a late round pick, there isnt financial motivation for them to do so because they arent in a position where they have to keep a ton of cheap young players for cap reasons.

I guess it would be an interesting thing to look at if you are an UDFA. Do you go to a team that doesnt keep that many UDFAs but they arent good and dont have much cap space, or would you prefer the opposite and come here.

PedraMartina · Aug 21, 2014

Saints Rest said:
And there may be a chicken/egg effect here (Belichicken and the egg?) -- one thing that makes UDFA's different from late-round picks is that they have some say in where they sign. So if I am a UDFA, I'm going to want to sign A) where there might be an opening at my position and B) with a team that is more likely to give a fair shake to UDFA's. The Pats' track record in the latter is pretty good.

Another factor is that the Pats seem somewhat unique in their indifference to draft status in final roster decisions. We may have more UDFA's from year to year in part because other teams cut them even when they've out-performed draft picks.

Stitch01 · Aug 21, 2014

http://espn.go.com/photo/2014/0506/Player-Acquisition-%20Development-Analysis.pdf

Some UDFA data from a Seahawks presentation to UDFAs.

Pats are one of the better teams at finding UDFA to make the roster, particularly among good teams, but not really unique. They seem to do a real good job evaluating who might be a fit pre signing as evidenced by the high hit rate. Wish they had it broke. Down by so e sort of DVOA contributed type stat but not relevant to seattles pitch

Random aside from page ten....21 Pats claimed on waivers in 2011 preseason seems crazy

pappymojo · Aug 22, 2014

wutang112878 said:
Then while the Pats might give you a fair shake in that they might keep an UDFA over a late round pick, there isnt financial motivation for them to do so because they arent in a position where they have to keep a ton of cheap young players for cap reasons.

I guess it would be an interesting thing to look at if you are an UDFA. Do you go to a team that doesnt keep that many UDFAs but they arent good and dont have much cap space, or would you prefer the opposite and come here.

I think this is very much a chicken/egg scenario. Are the Pats in a good cap position (a position where they dont have to keep UDFA for cap reasons) precisely because they already have a number of UDFA on their roster?

Edit: is the Pats cap position even all that great right now due to Hernandez?

soxfan121 · Aug 22, 2014

pappymojo said:
I think this is very much a chicken/egg scenario. Are the Pats in a good cap position (a position where they dont have to keep UDFA for cap reasons) precisely because they already have a number of UDFA on their roster?

Edit: is the Pats cap position even all that great right now due to Hernandez?

patscap.com should be referenced anytime there is a salary cap question.

mulluysavage · Aug 25, 2014

Please, let this be closure, I just want closure to a chapter where I made one, terrible decision:

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4766797/te-shuffle-as-justin-jones-waived-again

RedOctober3829 · Feb 7, 2015

My love of Josh Boyce did not go anywhere.

In other news, remember how we all loved Justin Jones? That was fun.

singaporesoxfan · Feb 7, 2015

wutang112878 said:
Some interesting stats on Malcom Butler. According to his statsfrom West Alabama. In the small sample we have seen here he has forced fumbles and has had a few picks in practice and was in position to get one (just couldnt pull it in) in the Washington game IIRC. At West Alabama he had 7 picks in 23 games and just 2 picks last year in 11 games. He did however have a lot of passes defended. But I just find it amazing that the Pats do enough scouting to find a guy like this in D2 who doesnt have a ton of picks in college. Really amazing

I guess he turned out to be good at both picks and passes defended.

soxfaninyankeeland · Feb 7, 2015

Best bump in bump history.

southshoresoxfan · Feb 8, 2015

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Malcolm Butler was impressive. Great instincts. I'd like to see him build on this game.

Ask and you shall receieve!

2014 Binkywagon Thread: Eck's binky wins a truck

Member

Member

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

JAG

Member

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch

Member

Well-Known Member

Magic Johnson of Bird AIDS

Member

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch