2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014

[Super Nomario]

My thought process was that while their front 7 is indeed very solid, they lacked the outside pass rushing threat that would enable them to make up for their mediocre secondary. Kind of like the Patriots D of the past few years, only somewhat better. It's a passing league these days, and if you don't have significant players with significant pass rushing or coverage skills, you can expect to struggle against any halfway decent passing offense. They've been a bit better than I expected in both departments. I thought losing Revis would have a domino effect through the entire defense, but that doesn't seem to have happened.

Then again, they haven't yet faced an offense that was anywhere close to firing on all cylinders, though admittedly the Bills have been pretty decent so far. As with any other team, we should wait a few more weeks before trying to reach any real conclusions.

The Rex Ryan Jets have never had a star edge rusher; one year Pace had 8 sacks, but that's about it. Usually they get 6 here, 4 there, etc. Rex is really good at scheming pressure and making teams guess which guys are blitzing and which aren't. It's also worth noting that Quentin Coples, who led the team with 5.5 sacks as a rookie, missed the first two weeks of the season but returned for game 3. I don't know if he's 100%, but he's a dude they move around a ton, playing DT, DE, and OLB.
 
Also, Revis missed basically the whole year last year. So if the Jets didn't fall apart then, I don't know why they would fall apart in 2013.

 

[jon abbey]

Well, BUF allowed one sack in their first two games before the Jets got eight on Sunday, the most they allowed in a game since 2000, so the first game with Coples back was pretty impressive overall. 

 

[Tony C]

Yeah, that defense is for real -- not completely dominant due to weak spots in the secondary, but that front 7 is a foundation and will cover up a lot of the woes. The offense is probably decent if Smith can be decent -- the OL is ok, the RBs inferior, but if Kerley and Holmes are healthy the WRs are average or better -- above average if Hill develops. Winslow looks decent as a stopgap, but hard to imagine that'll last long so assume TE will be below average over the course of the year. Smith may cost them some games, but if he can avoid huge mistakes then I think 7 wins is a reasonable expectation.
 
As fun as having them ranked 32nd was in the preseason ESPN poll (or 30th or whatever it was), they were never that bad. But they're not that good, either.
 
The bigger question is if Smith is a growth stock. If he has a future then this should be a quick turnaround. The defense is relatively young and should improve, and having to fill in spots on offense around Smith will be a lot quicker than having to find a new QB. For me it's really hard to judge if things like "pocket presence" or ability to check down will improve. A lot depends on Smith's football IQ -- he certainly comes off as dumber than any box of rocks since Tim Tebow (or Mark Sanchez, for that matter), but again that's awfully hard to judge.
 
My own (optimistic) guess is that Smith is Mark Sanchez redux -- stronger arm than the Sanchize, but similar mental issues and not such an athlete that he can make up for that by running around and connecting on bombs. But that may be the Jet-hater in me talking.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Going into a tough road contest in Tennessee this Sunday, and most likely without Ivory. His injured hammy has forced him to missed all practices this week. That is the same injury that caused him to miss most of camp. 
 
Looking at Ivory's injury history, it's not the first time Ivory has had hamstring issues:
 

 
AdvancedNFLStats.com only ranks Ivory as the 53rd back in the league, mainly due to the number of negative plays that has him at only 2.8 yards per carry & 35.7 success rate (plays that adds to a team's expected point or EPA). 
 
Powell has been the #1 back by default, but losing a rotational option like Ivory will make it tougher when facing the 13th ranked rushing D (FO) in the Titans. 

 

[jon abbey]

Mike Goodson comes off suspension after this game, not that that will help tomorrow.
 
But Ivory went out pretty early last week, and NY still managed over 500 yards of offense for the first time in a long time.

 

[Bellhorn]

The Rex Ryan Jets have never had a star edge rusher; one year Pace had 8 sacks, but that's about it. Usually they get 6 here, 4 there, etc. Rex is really good at scheming pressure and making teams guess which guys are blitzing and which aren't. It's also worth noting that Quentin Coples, who led the team with 5.5 sacks as a rookie, missed the first two weeks of the season but returned for game 3. I don't know if he's 100%, but he's a dude they move around a ton, playing DT, DE, and OLB.
 
Also, Revis missed basically the whole year last year. So if the Jets didn't fall apart then, I don't know why they would fall apart in 2013.

Sure, but I thought they would find it significantly harder to scheme pressure, without getting burned, without the luxury of Revis locking down a significant portion of the defensive backfield.  While they didn't fall apart without him last year, they were significantly worse by DVOA than in previous years, and I interpreted this to be the beginning of a slide toward defensive mediocrity - one that would doom them to another 6-win-at-best season with their well-documented issues on offense.  I'll be surprised - and will tip my hat to Rex Ryan - if they do end up with a defensive DVOA down around -10%. 

 

[Toe Nash]

How is this not posted yet?
 

 
Smith does a good amount of things well but he is awful right now at making decisions under pressure. The almost-safety was a similar play as he kept pump-faking and backing up instead of just getting rid of the ball.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

How is this not posted yet?

 
Already posted, discussed, and mocked in the Video/GIF thread. You're underselling your comrades, my friend. 
 
 
More pressing issue for the Jets is now they're facing a truly desperate Falcons team on the road, possibly without 2 of their top weapons in Holmes (hammy) and Hill (head). 

 

[glennhoffmania]

Well that and their QB has turned the ball over 11 times in 4 games.  He's almost Sanchastic.

 

[soxfan121]

Only the Jets: Sanchez opts to have season-ending surgery after being placed on IR with the designation-to-return. Surgery will keep him out 4-6 months. 

 

[PBDWake]

Santonio Holmes isn't terribly happy with the QB situation of the Jets, stil. Per Rotoworld:

A week after catching just one pass for 25 yards, injured Santonio Holmes expressed some frustration by saying "I can't throw it to myself."
"I can’t throw it to myself and catch it, otherwise I would," he said. "I played 49 plays, and all I know is I had one catch. That’s all I can attest for." Aside from a fluky five-catch, 154-yard, one-score Week 3 against the Bills, Holmes has just five grabs for 89 yards in his three other games. Nursing a multi-week hamstring injury, Holmes' time would be better spent rehabbing than complaining about his box-score statistics.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

The problem with the Jets has not been Holmes - not by far. 
 
The OL was supposed to be one of their solid positions, and while I thought it was top heavy with D'Brick & Mangold, the early emergence of Ducasse and the surprising play of Austin Howard had folks sleep on just how awful they've been as a group.
 
Through 4 weeks, ODVOA has them at the bottom of the rankings, with 31st pass rank and 21st rush rank. AdvancedFootballStats.com hasn't been too kind on them either, with a 21st Run-WPA and 27th Run-EPA (glossary here)
 
Pass blocking: I think Geno's terrible field of vision and the inability to get the ball out quick contribute to the pass rank, more than the OL here. In fact, overall PFF ranks are not too bad regarding the dire situation Geno puts them in every week:

• Colon: +2.9
• Ferguson: +2.8
• Howard: +1.3
• Mangold: 0.0
• Ducasse: -7.7

Run blocking: the much bigger issue has been the unit's inability to run block. Even giving them points for working with average starters and castaways like Powell and Ivory, run blocking has been absolutely putrid:

• Howard: +1.0
• Ducasse: 0.0
• Ferguson: -3.5 (wow)
• Mangold: -3.9 (wut)
• Colon: -4.5 (lol)

Mangold got absolutely got eaten up by Dareus & Co. vs. Buffalo, and has had a minus run blocking rating in 3/4 games already. Compared to his 2012 performance, when he only had TWO negative run blocking games the entire year. And that was working with Shonn Greene and Powell. 
 
D'Brick also put in subpar performances vs Tampa and Buffalo, and had minus run blocking ratings in both. In 2012, he only had 3 negative games all year (two Buffalo games and SF). 
 
Rookie Brian Winters will replace the free-falling Ducasse (who was a turnstile vs. Tennesee), but can the Jets expect real turnaround when your 2 anchors continue to put up stinkers? I think not. 
 
Surprisingly, the line's below-expected performances so far have been led by their 2 of their highest profile & paid players. This does not bode well for our beloved Jets. 

 

[jon abbey]

Mike Goodson's return should hopefully help the running game, he is off suspension this week. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Jets picking up Sudfeld really is a stick-it-in-the-Pats move. 
 
Jets already have a move TE in Kellen Winslow, who has been relatively healthy and is their primary move target (21 targets with 16 catches for 10.5 Y/C). Cumberland isn't a bad catch option either, with his only positive PFF rating coming from pass catching (otherwise god awful, especially in run block). 
 
Unless they know something about Winslow's knee (which has prevented him from practicing every day), Sudfeld most likely would be a recon target (Jets hosting Pats in 2 weeks) or a PS candidate. Can't imagine him sticking on the 53-man roster.

 

[JerBear]

"Zach, tell us about the offense"
"Well, Tom throws it to someone that isn't me and gets mad when they drop it"

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Kevin O'Connell is off the hook.

 

[jon abbey]

FWIW, Winslow was totally invisible for 2 1/2 games after opening week, a total of 3 catches for 16 yards in that period. All of his catches last week were in the second half after NY was already getting blown out and TEN was presumably conceding semi-short throws (I stopped watching before then). 

 

[SeanBerry]

With Winslow's injury history, I have to think this is a security blanket of sorts too. Hoenstly, with Holmes/Hill being out, they are probably just trying to find anyone who can catch a ball. They just grabbed David Nelson this week and reporters asked Rex how he looked.
 
Rex's answer? "He looks tall."
 
Awesome.
 
Falcons should win by 20. 

 

[Stitch01]

The Jets are rebuilding.  Taking flyers on guys like Sudfeld is exactly what they should be doing.

 

[soxfan121]

The Jets are rebuilding.  Taking flyers on guys like Sudfeld is exactly what they should be doing.

 
Seriously, this is spot on. 
 
Jokingly, congrats to Zach on being named Team Captain.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Mike Goodson's return should hopefully help the running game, he is off suspension this week. 

 
Just when you thought it was safe to go back to the water: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/ground-pounded-goodson-bad-hammy-article-1.1476959
 

Mike Goodson’s road to the playing field took yet another step backward Friday when the running back hurt his hamstring in practice.
 
Goodson, who can return from suspension this week against the Falcons, walked off the field with head trainer John Mellody and later headed for the bikes.
 
Rex Ryan confirmed that Goodson felt tightness in his hamstring, adding that he did not believe Goodson had participated in any team drills.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Half kidding with the title change. 
 
WR Ryan Spadola has been released by the Jets, as the recently signed David Nelson has essentially the same role. 
 
He was a pre-season sensation just like the newest Jet Sudfeld, but with even more production. He led all WRs with 152 total snaps, with 13 receptions and 216 yards for a nice 16.6 y/rec. 
 
These numbers are meaningless, but in the Jets PS games I caught I thought he ran quick and relatively clean routes. 
 
He also plays special teams, and ran 4.48/40 and 6.72/3-cone at the combine. 
 
I posted during the roster cuts days that I wish Jets would commit a Woodhead 2.0 and cut the guy so Pats could pick him up, and now it could be a nice practice squad/insurance sign at the end of the roster guy.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

FWIW, Winslow was totally invisible for 2 1/2 games after opening week, a total of 3 catches for 16 yards in that period. All of his catches last week were in the second half after NY was already getting blown out and TEN was presumably conceding semi-short throws (I stopped watching before then). 

 
I think you're right JA. Manish just tweeted this:
 
"Something to keep an eye on: Jets TE Kellen Winslow (knee), the team leader in receptions, is officially questionable for MNF v Falcons #nyj"

 

[rodderick]

Half kidding with the title change. 
 
WR Ryan Spadola has been released by the Jets, as the recently signed David Nelson has essentially the same role. 
 
He was a pre-season sensation just like the newest Jet Sudfeld, but with even more production. He led all WRs with 152 total snaps, with 13 receptions and 216 yards for a nice 16.6 y/rec. 
 
These numbers are meaningless, but in the Jets PS games I caught I thought he ran quick and relatively clean routes. 
 
He also plays special teams, and ran 4.48/40 and 6.72/3-cone at the combine. 
 
I posted during the roster cuts days that I wish Jets would commit a Woodhead 2.0 and cut the guy so Pats could pick him up, and now it could be a nice practice squad/insurance sign at the end of the roster guy.

 
Would the Patriots even be allowed to have Amendola, Edelman, Collie and Spadola on the same team? 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

 
Would the Patriots even be allowed to have Amendola, Edelman, Collie and Spadola on the same team? 


I don't know, but having Amendola, Edelman, and Spadola on the same field will unleash the awesome nickname Spamdolaman.

 

[dbn]

They could go from "you can't cover all of our TEs" to "you can't cover all of our slot receivers".  Next year: 5 RB sets.

 

[Section15Box113]

They could go from "you can't cover all of our TEs" to "you can't cover all of our slot receivers".  Next year: 5 RB sets.

 
Belichick, historian of the game that he is, would break out the single wing.

 

[jon abbey]

The current title isn't bad, but can I request "2013 Jets: The Best Team in New Jersey" for the next week?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

The current title isn't bad, but can I request "2013 Jets: The Best Team in New Jersey" for the next week?

 
Why wait for the party? Done.
 
Edit: Wilkerson is an absolute beast. He won the game almost single-handedly tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Defensive PoY award within the next 3 years. 
 
Geno had a very professional game, and that's what you get I guess -- Jekyll & Hyde show until he gains more experience. 
 
Great win by the Jets. 

 

[mpx42]

Also, I'd rather have Sheldon Richardson at $2 million a year for 4 years then Darrelle Revis for $16 million a year. He and Wilkerson dominated the line of scrimmage all night.

 

[kolbitr]

Also, I'd rather have Sheldon Richardson at $2 million a year for 4 years then Darrelle Revis for $16 million a year. He and Wilkerson dominated the line of scrimmage all night.


Wilkerson was incredible. Damn. He's a super stud.

Imagine if they could have kept revis too.

Rex is a half-a-coach, but the half he knows is a fluent language.

 

[jon abbey]

Geno Smith is up to 6th in the league in yards/attempt, behind only Peyton, Vick, Rodgers, Brees and Philip Rivers.
 
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I get jealous when I see a defense blitz 6+ in the right situation, get pressure, and end a drive.
 
I'm not jealous of the throw up colored uniforms, however.

 

[SeanBerry]

 
 
Falcons should win by 20. 

 
 
Wow. I couldn't have been more wrong there.
 
I guess (like SSF said) I'm just going to have to get used to Good Geno/Bad Geno for a while. 

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

From Deadspin:
 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Building him up so they can tear him down.

Evil and wonderful.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Projecting future games - assuming Geno continues his up/down pattern:

• vs Pitt: W (4-2)
• vs NE: W (5-2)
• at Cincy: L (5-3)
• vs NO: L (5-4)
• at Buff: W (6-4)
• at Balt: L (6-5)
• vs Miami: W (7-5)
• vs Oak: W (8-5)
• at Car: L (8-6)
• vs Clev: W (9-6)
• at Miami: L (9-7)

Finishes 9-7, misses the PO by a game/tie-breaker. Rex is retained amid renewed hope. 
 
Frankly, best possible scenario for Pats fans.

 

[NatetheGreat]

Say what you will about Rex, but when he has a good D-line to work with, he really doesn't make things easy on opposing quarterbacks. Its too bad for the Jets they couldn't keep Revis, because a true shutdown corner would put the Jets D in the argument for best in the league.

 

[wutang112878]

I really wonder how much Rex needs elite corners.  They were a great passing defense last year without Revis and without much talent beyond Cromartie, and this year they dont look that bad either.  I think his pressure based system puts stress on his corners, but it can hide corner problems because he is so effective at generating pressure.

 

[Stitch01]

Projecting future games - assuming Geno continues his up/down pattern:

• vs Pitt: W (4-2)
• vs NE: W (5-2)
• at Cincy: L (5-3)
• vs NO: L (5-4)
• at Buff: W (6-4)
• at Balt: L (6-5)
• vs Miami: W (7-5)
• vs Oak: W (8-5)
• at Car: L (8-6)
• vs Clev: W (9-6)
• at Miami: L (9-7)

Finishes 9-7, misses the PO by a game/tie-breaker. Rex is retained amid renewed hope. 
 
Frankly, best possible scenario for Pats fans.

Yeah it would be awesome for the Pats to lose that game in NY, put the division in jeopardy for this season for the Pats, and have an improving division rival with a competent quarterback.  Seems like a jackpot. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Yeah it would be awesome for the Pats to lose that game in NY, put the division in jeopardy for this season for the Pats, and have an improving division rival with a competent quarterback.  Seems like a jackpot. 

 
That's looking at the short term. 
 
Sweeping a divisional rival is never easy, despite the success Pats had in NJ recent years. It's a bad loss, but looking at the long term Pats will still make the PO, Jets miss PO, and by finishing 8-8 or 9-7 Jets draft lower than anyone thought at the start of the season. 
 
Plus, I don't believe that Jets are still close to being a contender in the division. An improvement over a 6-10 team, surely. But Jets are still awfully thin at many, many key positions and besides their top run defense, coverage is at the bottom of barrel (#28 at -22.2), and still undisciplined (#31). 
 
It's also not true that Jets don't need great corners. Jets have been not only been awful on coverage (because JAGs like Darrin Walls are beating out Kyle Wilson), they also haven't been able to rush well (#24, -4.0) because Cromartie has fallen off the deep end (-7.6 PFF grade - woof) and can't play man or overload the line. 
 
Talking about pass rush and depth, they also just lost LB Antwan Barnes for the season, who have been their #2 rusher after All-World Wilkerson. Losing an effective sub-package rusher like Barnes is a blow for the Jets, who were already thin at the position. 
 
I gave out pretty much the rosiest projection I can muster, and if Jets go into the off-season with full of hope with essentially a 6-8 roster and a pick in the 20 range, that's good news for the Pats. 

 

[Bellhorn]

I really wonder how much Rex needs elite corners.  They were a great passing defense last year without Revis and without much talent beyond Cromartie, and this year they dont look that bad either.  I think his pressure based system puts stress on his corners, but it can hide corner problems because he is so effective at generating pressure.

They had a pass defense DVOA of -2.6% last year, still 10th in the league but a long way from their -16.0% mark from the previous year. This year, their pass defense DVOA is 6.8%, 18th in the league, with the caveat that opponent adjustmens will continue to change retroactively for the next few weeks. They're still tough as hell to run against, but I'm not fathoming how some people still see them as a potentially elite defense.

 

[Super Nomario]

They had a pass defense DVOA of -2.6% last year, still 10th in the league but a long way from their -16.0% mark from the previous year. This year, their pass defense DVOA is 6.8%, 18th in the league, with the caveat that opponent adjustmens will continue to change retroactively for the next few weeks. They're still tough as hell to run against, but I'm not fathoming how some people still see them as a potentially elite defense.

They're only allowing 4.5 yards per play, which is the second-lowest figure in the league. They're allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (4th). They've allowed the second-fewest total yards in the league. They're allowing three yards per carry, which is best in the league. And if you like DVOA (I don't), they're 4th in overall defensive DVOA (-11.1%). I'm not going to get into whether that classifies them as "elite," but it's not that hard to fathom someone rating them as such.
 
They only have one interception (and only three takeaways), but it's hard to know how predictive that is. They're only 15th in scoring D, but a lot of that is their O. Against Tennessee, they allowed 38 points, but the Titans had a defensive touchdown and 3 of their other 4 TD drives started in Jets territory after turnovers.

 

[soxhop411]

Rich Cimini ‏@RichCimini 1m
CB Antonio Cromartie suffered non-contact knee injury today in practice, taken for MRI, per sources. Team concerned. Story posted soon. #nyj
https://twitter.com/RichCimini/status/388489388411215872

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Rich Cimini ‏@RichCimini 1m
CB Antonio Cromartie suffered non-contact knee injury today in practice, taken for MRI, per sources. Team concerned. Story posted soon. #nyj
https://twitter.com/RichCimini/status/388489388411215872

 
Per Mehta: https://twitter.com/MMehtaNYDN/status/388509957080899584
 

I'm told that Antonio Cromartie's knee injury is not season ending. Not overly serious. However, his status vs Steelers is in doubt #nyj

 
Edit: it's a hyperextended knee - "major bullet dodged". 

 

[Bellhorn]

They're only allowing 4.5 yards per play, which is the second-lowest figure in the league. They're allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (4th). They've allowed the second-fewest total yards in the league. They're allowing three yards per carry, which is best in the league. And if you like DVOA (I don't), they're 4th in overall defensive DVOA (-11.1%). I'm not going to get into whether that classifies them as "elite," but it's not that hard to fathom someone rating them as such.

I don't really want to get into a pissing match over this, but yes, I do find it rather incomprehensible that anyone who aspires to have their opinion taken seriously on this question would either a) use something other than value-adjusted stats (like DVOA) as the primary basis of measurement*, or b) maintain that such an extreme split between run and pass DVOA is likely to sustain an elite level of defensive performance over the course of a season.  You need to back to 2007 to find a team (that weird Ravens outfit) that finished in the top five in defensive DVOA without being above average on both sides of the ball.  And I would suggest that even if a team does end up with an excellent overall DVOA based on such a huge split, this would tend to overstate their actual level of contribution to the team's win probability.  In addition to the 07 Ravens, an example of this would be the '06 Vikings, who ended up 6th in the league in defensive DVOA, thanks to the Williams Wall holding opponents to a -30.5% run DVOA.  But their pass defense DVOA was 3.4%, 18th in the league (just like this year's Jets to date, coincidentally), and teams like the Patriots were able to pick them apart by forgoing the run more or less entirely and making their weak secondary the primary point of attack.
 
How about this: you are going to the BbtL outing in December, right?  I'll wager you a beer that by the time that date rolls around, the Jets' pass defense DVOA will still be above 0%, and their overall defensive DVOA will be above -5%.  
 
* As we discussed in that other thread, there may perhaps be a specific flaw in the DVOA methodology that makes it less effective than it could be.  But there should be no question that it presents a significant improvement over raw yards-per-play metrics: check out this page (scroll down to "Does DVOA really work?") for proof.  

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Jets are also fighting a lot of injury. 
 
Mehta tweets Santonio Holmes (hammy) and Milliner (hammy) are out for Sunday.
 
If Cromartie is also out, the top corners for NY will be Kyle Wilson Darrin Walls.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Jets are also fighting a lot of injury. 
 
Mehta tweets Santonio Holmes (hammy) and Milliner (hammy) are out for Sunday.
 
If Cromartie is also out, the top corners for NY will be Kyle Wilson Darrin Walls.

 
My two cents, and I don't have much more information on the kid, but what I saw of Walls on Monday night was mildly impressive. He seemed to have good cover skills.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Oh and Zach Sudfeld may start on Sunday if Winslow is not a go. I feel a bit queasy even though logic says no reason to.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

My two cents, and I don't have much more information on the kid, but what I saw of Walls on Monday night was mildly impressive. He seemed to have good cover skills.

 
PFF has him at -0.5 pass/-0.9 run support for Sunday. Overall, he played the "best" out of all corners (Cromartie -1.6, Wilson -1.8) versus Atlanta but that is not saying much. 
 
He played so bad in pre-season and against Titans that I may not be seeing straight, but needless to say the strength of the Jets D ain't at the corners.