2023 Starting Rotation

E5 Yaz

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I don’t mind giving him an extra day, it was just being stated as a certainty and I was wondering if a reason had been given. Using the extra roster spot for the double header for a spot starter makes sense though
If I had to guess, they've got Paxton on a strict routine at this stage of his comeback and probably told him he had the Minnesota opener after his last start. That sets his prep in motion.Bumping it up a day, even if it would be his normal day, disrupts that a little.
When you're dealing with a guy coming back like Paxton, you don't want to mess with his prep in June. In September, if he's shown he's fully back and the game matters, all bets are off.
But that's just a guess
 

DeadlySplitter

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Maybe but Paxton was listed as tomorrow’s pitcher before the rainout. I think they are taking the opportunity to have the 27th man tomorrow be the spot starter instead of two spot starts / bullpen games in a row later.
 

E5 Yaz

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Maybe but Paxton was listed as tomorrow’s pitcher before the rainout. I think they are taking the opportunity to have the 27th man tomorrow be the spot starter instead of two spot starts / bullpen games in a row later.
Agreed, but it's not a bad idea to give Paxton some extra rest when you get the chance
 

chrisfont9

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Not a bad idea to give him an extra day every now and then.
I mean, what's wrong with giving Pivetta the start as an opener in Game 1? It might motivate him
Yeah and then everyone gets an extra day. If you have to bring up a guy for a spot start, maybe you don't care which one it is, so you might as well let the whole rotation benefit? Or it's even more strategic -- the Yankees are scuffling offensively without Judge.
 

mwonow

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…just got the notification. Ort is starting?!
At last, the secret master plan is revealed. Any team can convert a bad starter into a reliever, but who can go the other way? And combine Father's Day with April Fool's at the same time? Chaim has wheels within wheels within wheels...
 

DavidTai

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At last, the secret master plan is revealed. Any team can convert a bad starter into a reliever, but who can go the other way? And combine Father's Day with April Fool's at the same time? Chaim has wheels within wheels within wheels...
It's worked out well enough for the Rays (here's an old article about this strategy: https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2022/05/21/for-openers-rays-have-had-a-pretty-good-run/ ) because
1) It tells the reliever when exactly they will pitch for some comfort
2) It allows the primary innings eater to be pitching against the softer part of the lineup early on.

The Sox have tried this in the past - Brayan Bello was one of those 'followers' the Sox broke in last year with this strategy -
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/for-red-sox-biggest-risk-of-opener-strategy-is-whoever-comes-next/401553/

So no real reason not to use it with Murphy if it's eased in Bello last year successfully.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Not sure where to put it- but Pivetta is emerging as a real asset out of the pen.

16 1/3 IP
1 HR
7 BB
18 K
4 ER

So that’s a 2.20 ERA. Too many walks (3.9) but a K rate just a tick under 10 and keeping the ball in the park.

Do we have something here?
 

DavidTai

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Not sure where to put it- but Pivetta is emerging as a real asset out of the pen.

16 1/3 IP
1 HR
7 BB
18 K
4 ER

So that’s a 2.20 ERA. Too many walks (3.9) but a K rate just a tick under 10 and keeping the ball in the park.

Do we have something here?
Too small a sample size to work with, but thinking that the 'opener' strategy might work really well with Pivetta, since it requires a really good 'follower' to eat up the innings. Might be a better 'follower' than a starter.

I wanna see Pivetta attached to Shane Drohan and Chris Murphy this year and see if that does, in fact, work out for all parties involved.
 

chawson

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Nice outing by Pivetta.

Probably helps he can dial it up a bit more in relief and I think it does help to pair him with a lefty like Murphy, but I don't see a lot of evidence he's some relief ace in the making or anything. That's quite a bad Yankee lineup.

He's been really solid in relief while we've needed some innings, and a Murphy/Pivetta frankenstarter could work for a bit. But at $6-7 million in arb3 rates, Pivetta still seems like a trade or non-tender candidate next year.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Oh yeah, I’m more just wondering if he can continue to be effective as RH set up man until / if Schreiber returns. With Martin seemingly not available on back to back days and Winckowski perhaps best utilized in a multi-inning role he’s been so successful at, it seems like a real need. If it can be filled from within, that’s one less potential hole to fill in the short term and maybe an ok use of Nick.
 

Niastri

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Nice outing by Pivetta.

Probably helps he can dial it up a bit more in relief and I think it does help to pair him with a lefty like Murphy, but I don't see a lot of evidence he's some relief ace in the making or anything. That's quite a bad Yankee lineup.

He's been really solid in relief while we've needed some innings, and a Murphy/Pivetta frankenstarter could work for a bit. But at $6-7 million in arb3 rates, Pivetta still seems like a trade or non-tender candidate next year.
Why? Pivetta will be making something like 2.5% of the salary cap, is a proven player (mediocre starter, but maybe better in the bullpen) on a very young team with 9 guys making less than him. Why get rid of him for money? In order to get a roster spot or for lack of performance, I get, Pivetta is not Sale in his prime. But who cares if he makes arbitration money next year?

Especially if he proves to be a bad starter turned effective long man/set up man.
 

JM3

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Bit early to draw any conclusions on whether he's actually a decent reliever or not. But for $6 to $7m he would have to be a really good one.
 

chrisfont9

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At last, the secret master plan is revealed. Any team can convert a bad starter into a reliever, but who can go the other way? And combine Father's Day with April Fool's at the same time? Chaim has wheels within wheels within wheels...
Apart from blaming Bloom for the rainout and Houck breaking his face, do you have any follow up on this strategy?
 

grimshaw

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Bit early to draw any conclusions on whether he's actually a decent reliever or not. But for $6 to $7m he would have to be a really good one.
I agree that it is too early to draw conclusions, but 6 mill is fairly easy to earn as a multi inning reliever. Paying a free agent may not be a whole lot cheaper. Mixed bags that signed this season like Andrew Chafin, Trevor Williams, Luke Jackson, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino and Chris Martin are in that range.
 

chawson

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Why? Pivetta will be making something like 2.5% of the salary cap, is a proven player (mediocre starter, but maybe better in the bullpen) on a very young team with 9 guys making less than him. Why get rid of him for money? In order to get a roster spot or for lack of performance, I get, Pivetta is not Sale in his prime. But who cares if he makes arbitration money next year?

Especially if he proves to be a bad starter turned effective long man/set up man.
We’ll see, I guess. Pivetta looked sharp today but he’s the same guy that walked two, one with the bases loaded, in a tie game against the Rockies his last outing.

I suspect we’ll go over the tax again next year, so that kind of money could be useful. But I think it may be even more about the roster spot. Could be another big group of youngsters coming onto the 40-man this winter (Drohan, Gonzalez, Bonaci, Blalock, Paulino, Perales, Bastardo, Fernandez among the higher-ranked prospects eligible).

Maybe it makes more sense to use that roster spot to break Ryan Fernandez into the big leagues? Our pen could use a fastball/slider guy with Brasier (and Ort mostly) off the roster, and a guy like that has more of a future with the team than Pivetta would.
 

BaseballJones

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Bello's first two starts: 7.1 ip (3.2 ip/start), 13 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 8 k, 9.82 era, 2.18 whip, 9.8 k/9
Bello's last nine starts: 52.0 ip (5.2 ip/start), 44 h, 17 r, 15 er, 17 bb, 49 k, 2.60 era, 1.17 whip, 8.5 k/9

I don't think he's ready yet to be an ace, but he's sure trending that way. Dude just turned 24. I've not been this excited about a Sox pitching prospect since...well...I don't know when actually. Lester maybe?

Paxton has been great. Bello has been great. Whitlock has been up and down but his last four starts: 3.13 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9.

We don't know when Houck will return, and Sale is a question mark, but the Sox are doing some things right with the rotation.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Bello's first two starts: 7.1 ip (3.2 ip/start), 13 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 8 k, 9.82 era, 2.18 whip, 9.8 k/9
Bello's last nine starts: 52.0 ip (5.2 ip/start), 44 h, 17 r, 15 er, 17 bb, 49 k, 2.60 era, 1.17 whip, 8.5 k/9

I don't think he's ready yet to be an ace, but he's sure trending that way. Dude just turned 24. I've not been this excited about a Sox pitching prospect since...well...I don't know when actually. Lester maybe?

Paxton has been great. Bello has been great. Whitlock has been up and down but his last four starts: 3.13 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9.

We don't know when Houck will return, and Sale is a question mark, but the Sox are doing some things right with the rotation.
Id put Buccholz after Lester,but he never quite hit Lester’s continuity of greatness- injuries and inconsistency…. But the excitement was there and reasonable too
 

Max Power

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A player can be offered no less than his current salary minus 20% in the arb process. Pivetta is getting $5.3 million this year, so the minimum the Red Sox could offer would be a little over $4.2 million. I don't know what you'd offer someone who lost their job as a starter due to ineffectiveness, but I'd guess it's less than what someone who made 30 starts would earn.
 

JM3

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I agree that it is too early to draw conclusions, but 6 mill is fairly easy to earn as a multi inning reliever. Paying a free agent may not be a whole lot cheaper. Mixed bags that signed this season like Andrew Chafin, Trevor Williams, Luke Jackson, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino and Chris Martin are in that range.
That's not a role they should be targeting in FA. It's the type of role they should be fulfilling from within.

Of that list, Martin/Chafin would be the only 2 who I would really have been comfortable paying that much, but Pivetta has a long way to go to get to the pedigree of basically any of them.

These are some of the guys currently under control for next year who could easily be part of the bullpen mix:

Jansen
Martin
Schreiber
Winck
Crawford
Murphy
Mills
Kelly
Fernandez
Guerrero
Bernardino

& we could also see a return to the pen for Houck if they add a couple high end starters.
 

TFisNEXT

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Id put Buccholz after Lester,but he never quite hit Lester’s continuity of greatness- injuries and inconsistency…. But the excitement was there and reasonable too
Yeah, the Buchholz excitement was real. He had some eye-popping AA and AAA numbers…we’re talking like 12-13 K/9 type stuff with walk rates below 3 per 9 right before he was called up. He never was able to really transfer that electricity to the majors…though he did still have a decent major league career.

Had a couple of all-star seasons with the Red Sox and I’ll always remember him gutting out 4 innings on the road in STL in the 2013 WS while he was injured giving up only 1 run in that key game 4 matchup down 2 games to 1.
 

RG33

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Yeah, the Buchholz excitement was real. He had some eye-popping AA and AAA numbers…we’re talking like 12-13 K/9 type stuff with walk rates below 3 per 9 right before he was called up. He never was able to really transfer that electricity to the majors…though he did still have a decent major league career.

Had a couple of all-star seasons with the Red Sox and I’ll always remember him gutting out 4 innings on the road in STL in the 2013 WS while he was injured giving up only 1 run in that key game 4 matchup down 2 games to 1.
He had a really solid major league career. He was always really frustrating for me, as his highs were pretty high but he could never stay healthy.

He started more than 20 games 4 times in his 13 years, and pitched more than 150 innings 3 times in his 13 year career.

2010 (lead the AL with an ERA+ of 187) and 2013 (12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and a whopping 287 ERA+) were the highlights in his Sox career.

What could have been for the wiry Texan.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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But generally agree- the excitement level for Bello is probably the best starter since Lester and Buccholz. E-Rod doesn’t really count
 

TFisNEXT

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He had a really solid major league career. He was always really frustrating for me, as his highs were pretty high but he could never stay healthy.

He started more than 20 games 4 times in his 13 years, and pitched more than 150 innings 3 times in his 13 year career.

2010 (lead the AL with an ERA+ of 187) and 2013 (12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and a whopping 287 ERA+) were the highlights in his Sox career.

What could have been for the wiry Texan.
Yeah I always wondered if his skinny/wiry frame was a detriment to him being a perennial ace. The nagging injuries always got him…though some of them were just flukish (like the baserunning incident in 2010). He was still obviously a successful pitcher who could take down any lineup when he had his ‘A’ game, but you always had visions of him becoming more than that.

Instead, it was Lester who became the monster workhorse ace.

I worry a bit about Bello’s frame too, but then again, Pedro had a small frame.
 

Rovin Romine

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& we could also see a return to the pen for Houck if they add a couple high end starters.
If they add a couple of high-end starters, it will be because Houck (or others) failed to develop as a starter in the second half. But I don't see a scenario where Houck starts consistently preforming well the third time through the order, and the Sox then choose to demote him to the bullpen and hit the FA market for starters.
 

BornToRun

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I’m usually an optimist but even I’ll admit to thinking that Sale going down, after looking like his 2017 self, would be a hard loss to overcome. However, it appears the rest of the staff has really picked up the slack and could very well have us in position to ride out the storm until he gets back*. Especially if the offense is starting to find its footing again.

*providing he doesn’t fall off a bike again.
 

Rovin Romine

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General Question: What do we make of Murphy's craptacular AAA campaign as a starter? 9 starts with an 8.35 ERA.

That starter campaign stopped in May. Since May 1 he's logged 3 relief appearances in AAA, and two ML long-relief appearances - a total of 13 innings and no earned runs.

It seems. . .kind of weird. Should he be returned to the AAA rotation? Kept as a AAA long (or short) reliever? Promoted instead of Ort?

(I realize this is potentially more of a bullpen issue, but it's tied with Houck being on the IL and the need for long men in the pen with Crawford still getting stretched out. Plus Kluber and Pivetta now being pen arms. I'm not sure I've ever seen a pitching dynamic quite like it.)
 

chrisfont9

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General Question: What do we make of Murphy's craptacular AAA campaign as a starter? 9 starts with an 8.35 ERA.

That starter campaign stopped in May. Since May 1 he's logged 3 relief appearances in AAA, and two ML long-relief appearances - a total of 13 innings and no earned runs.

It seems. . .kind of weird. Should he be returned to the AAA rotation? Kept as a AAA long (or short) reliever? Promoted instead of Ort?

(I realize this is potentially more of a bullpen issue, but it's tied with Houck being on the IL and the need for long men in the pen with Crawford still getting stretched out. Plus Kluber and Pivetta now being pen arms. I'm not sure I've ever seen a pitching dynamic quite like it.)
He's probably a better candidate than Ort, if only because Ort needs to improve on his command whereas Murphy -- he is what he is?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Did Murphy get sent back down following his outing yesterday? Totally possible that he did and I missed it. However...

Certainly put me in the "have him in the majors instead of Ort" position, even though I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "promoted." If you just meant as in an opener being a promotion, sure, but that was a bullpen game through and through, and Murphy pitched more innings than Ort (2.2 v 2.1).

However, if / when someone has to go down to Worcester and things are at all close to equal in terms of performance, in a season like this I say you jettison the 31 year old to see what you have in the 25 year old literally every single time.

We should have a pretty good idea right now that Kaleb Ort is not a good MLB pitcher. He is 31 years old, has a career ERA of 6.22, FIP of 5.14, and gives up home runs. Murphy on the other hand might be a good MLB pitcher and he might be as terrible as Ort (or worse) but there is at least the chance he could be good. Ort isn't.



Edit - thanks @Max Power. Yes, I think Ort should be gone (either Worcester if he can be sent back or DFA'ed if necessary) and Murphy should be up in Boston.
 
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joe dokes

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General Question: What do we make of Murphy's craptacular AAA campaign as a starter? 9 starts with an 8.35 ERA.

That starter campaign stopped in May. Since May 1 he's logged 3 relief appearances in AAA, and two ML long-relief appearances - a total of 13 innings and no earned runs.

It seems. . .kind of weird. Should he be returned to the AAA rotation? Kept as a AAA long (or short) reliever? Promoted instead of Ort?

(I realize this is potentially more of a bullpen issue, but it's tied with Houck being on the IL and the need for long men in the pen with Crawford still getting stretched out. Plus Kluber and Pivetta now being pen arms. I'm not sure I've ever seen a pitching dynamic quite like it.)
Glob story on that very subject:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/18/sports/chris-murphy-comes-alive-his-new-relief-role-red-sox/
 

Max Power

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Did Murphy get sent back down following his outing yesterday? Totally possible that he did and I missed it. However...

Certainly put me in the "have him in the majors instead of Ort" position, even though I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "promoted." If you just meant as in an opener being a promotion, sure, but that was a bullpen game through and through, and Murphy pitched more innings than Ort (2.2 v 2.1).

However, if / when someone has to go down to Worcester and things are at all close to equal in terms of performance, in a season like this I say you jettison the 31 year old to see what you have in the 25 year old literally every single time.
Murphy was the free 27th player on the roster for a double header, so he went down after game 2. Ort is the injury replacement for Houck and is still with the team.
 

JM3

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If they add a couple of high-end starters, it will be because Houck (or others) failed to develop as a starter in the second half. But I don't see a scenario where Houck starts consistently preforming well the third time through the order, and the Sox then choose to demote him to the bullpen and hit the FA market for starters.
I agree. I've been a Houck apologist. He has been pitching l better lately, & his xFIP is 3.78, but he still has a 5.05 ERA & does have elite upside as a multi-inning reliever.

They are going to have a ton of money to spend this off season & limited 40-man spots, so wading into the higher end of the starting pitcher market once or twice makes a lot of sense.

But I hope he proves over the course of the season that he should be placed in permanent marker into the rotation next year.
 

JM3

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General Question: What do we make of Murphy's craptacular AAA campaign as a starter? 9 starts with an 8.35 ERA.

That starter campaign stopped in May. Since May 1 he's logged 3 relief appearances in AAA, and two ML long-relief appearances - a total of 13 innings and no earned runs.

It seems. . .kind of weird. Should he be returned to the AAA rotation? Kept as a AAA long (or short) reliever? Promoted instead of Ort?

(I realize this is potentially more of a bullpen issue, but it's tied with Houck being on the IL and the need for long men in the pen with Crawford still getting stretched out. Plus Kluber and Pivetta now being pen arms. I'm not sure I've ever seen a pitching dynamic quite like it.)
He changed his pitch mix & approach a lot since moving to the pen.

View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1670522946119409664
 

YTF

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Why? Pivetta will be making something like 2.5% of the salary cap, is a proven player (mediocre starter, but maybe better in the bullpen) on a very young team with 9 guys making less than him. Why get rid of him for money? In order to get a roster spot or for lack of performance, I get, Pivetta is not Sale in his prime. But who cares if he makes arbitration money next year?

Especially if he proves to be a bad starter turned effective long man/set up man.
There is plenty of season left to see how this plays out, but if he shows continued success in his current role that means there is one less slot for Bloom to fill during the off season. The 6-7M might seem steep to fill that slot, but depending on how many in house arms seem viable for next season the cost doesn't seem prohibitive.
 

Benj4ever

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If they add a couple of high-end starters, it will be because Houck (or others) failed to develop as a starter in the second half. But I don't see a scenario where Houck starts consistently preforming well the third time through the order, and the Sox then choose to demote him to the bullpen and hit the FA market for starters.
I can see adding a high-end starter if they don't re-sign Paxton. Otherwise, I'd be more concerned about the pen, particularly closer, given Jansen's age.
 

chawson

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I agree. I've been a Houck apologist. He has been pitching l better lately, & his xFIP is 3.78, but he still has a 5.05 ERA & does have elite upside as a multi-inning reliever.

They are going to have a ton of money to spend this off season & limited 40-man spots, so wading into the higher end of the starting pitcher market once or twice makes a lot of sense.

But I hope he proves over the course of the season that he should be placed in permanent marker into the rotation next year.
I've been a Houck pessimist entering the season, but I think he's acquitted himself nicely and is getting better at going deeper into games.

The thing that I find most promising about the young SP core of Bello, Whitlock and Houck is that they all have well above-average ground ball rates and they strike hitters out.

Taking a quick look at how rare that is (and tailoring the criteria), there are 24 starting pitchers this year with a ground ball percentage above 45 percent, a strikeout rate above 20 percent, and a walk rate below 9 percent. We have three of them. That's a really nice set of attributes in a young starter.

If you just Whitlock's number since his return in May (just four starts), then all three have >49% ground ball rate, a >22% K rate, and walk rates of under 9%. There are only 10 other starters with those metrics (Drew Rasmussen, Framber Valdez, Nathan Eovaldi, Ranger Suarez, Zach Eflin, Alex Cobb, Braxton Garrett, Hunter Brown, Logan Webb, David Peterson) along with Bello, Houck and Whitlock.
 

grimshaw

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I'm bullish on Murphy because of his stuff, but thought he was very fortunate with his results yesterday. He was missing badly with location and behind a good majority of hitters. Credit to making pitches when he needed to though
 
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Rovin Romine

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I can see adding a high-end starter if they don't re-sign Paxton. Otherwise, I'd be more concerned about the pen, particularly closer, given Jansen's age.
Shure. But the 2023 off-season is pretty far down the road. The main factor for how the Sox will spend and trade will be how the younger pitchers and players do between now and the trade deadline, and now and the end of the year.

We're getting very close to the practical halfway point for most starters - 15 games started for the healthy opening day starters, out of 33/32 starts in a full season. Due to the injuries and ineffectiveness, today the Sox starters are as follows: Houck 13, Bello/Sale 11, Kluber 9, Pivetta 8, Whitlock 7, Paxton 6, Crawford 5.

I think Houck, Whitlock, Bello get as many starts as they can this year with an eye not to overwork them. Crawford also, unless someone comes roaring back. But I don't think that many of those guys will get shut down before the end of the year just on an innings-pitched concern at this point.

So that's nominally 4 cost controlled starters for 2023 (Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford), plus Sale, Winckowski, Mata/Murphy/Walter/Drohan.

They may go outside the org for SP, or they may not, depending on how the year goes. We'll see.
 

Benj4ever

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Shure. But the 2023 off-season is pretty far down the road. The main factor for how the Sox will spend and trade will be how the younger pitchers and players do between now and the trade deadline, and now and the end of the year.

We're getting very close to the practical halfway point for most starters - 15 games started for the healthy opening day starters, out of 33/32 starts in a full season. Due to the injuries and ineffectiveness, today the Sox starters are as follows: Houck 13, Bello/Sale 11, Kluber 9, Pivetta 8, Whitlock 7, Paxton 6, Crawford 5.

I think Houck, Whitlock, Bello get as many starts as they can this year with an eye not to overwork them. Crawford also, unless someone comes roaring back. But I don't think that many of those guys will get shut down before the end of the year just on an innings-pitched concern at this point.

So that's nominally 4 cost controlled starters for 2023 (Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford), plus Sale, Winckowski, Mata/Murphy/Walter/Drohan.

They may go outside the org for SP, or they may not, depending on how the year goes. We'll see.
I could see them doing a Wacha type of signing, but (at this point) I don't see the need to get a high-end guy. In any case, I'm still more concerned about shoring up the pen right now.
 

JM3

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They have tons of depth now. It only makes sense to add 1s & 2s.

These guys are under control for next year & can start...

Sale
Whitlock
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Winck
Drohan
Pivetta
Murphy
Walter
Mata

& they have that giant list of potential relievers I posted earlier.

& they have like $100m+ they can spend. Sure, if they could grab the next Wacha on a minor league contract, great. But they should not be dabbling around on players who may or may not be the 4th or 5th starter.

They have the cheap depth all lined up. It's time to add high end talent. But this isn't really the place for this conversation.
 

chawson

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They have tons of depth now. It only makes sense to add 1s & 2s.

These guys are under control for next year & can start...

Sale
Whitlock
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Winck
Drohan
Pivetta
Murphy
Walter
Mata

& they have that giant list of potential relievers I posted earlier.

& they have like $100m+ they can spend. Sure, if they could grab the next Wacha on a minor league contract, great. But they should not be dabbling around on players who may or may not be the 4th or 5th starter.

They have the cheap depth all lined up. It's time to add high end talent. But this isn't really the place for this conversation.
Don't disagree, but I'd be really nervous about who that might be—at least among the notionally available free agents this winter.

Urias is probably the name most cited here, but he's lost some fastball velo and hitters are suddenly launching home runs off him (14 in 55 innings). Nola has also looked really iffy this year. Pretty big question marks around Giolito, Gray, Morton, Snell, Montas and Flaherty. I do not expect we'll sign Ohtani. Maybe Paxton is the best option?
 

Benj4ever

New Member
Nov 21, 2022
373
They have tons of depth now. It only makes sense to add 1s & 2s.

These guys are under control for next year & can start...

Sale
Whitlock
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Winck
Drohan
Pivetta
Murphy
Walter
Mata

& they have that giant list of potential relievers I posted earlier.

& they have like $100m+ they can spend. Sure, if they could grab the next Wacha on a minor league contract, great. But they should not be dabbling around on players who may or may not be the 4th or 5th starter.

They have the cheap depth all lined up. It's time to add high end talent. But this isn't really the place for this conversation.
They already have three guys: Paxton, Bello, and Whitlock, who could all be the number 1 starter next year. Until that changes, I like the top of the rotation just fine the way it is.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,792
Don't disagree, but I'd be really nervous about who that might be—at least among the notionally available free agents this winter.

Urias is probably the name most cited here, but he's lost some fastball velo and hitters are suddenly launching home runs off him (14 in 55 innings). Nola has also looked really iffy this year. Pretty big question marks around Giolito, Gray, Morton, Snell, Montas and Flaherty. I do not expect we'll sign Ohtani. Maybe Paxton is the best option?
Absolutely. It would have to be someone who is that guy now & not coasting on past performance... unless there are reasons to expect a bounce back & they come at a discount.

There also may be opportunities to go get a disgruntled Corbin Burnes & extend him or something.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,792
They already have three guys: Paxton, Bello, and Whitlock, who could all be the number 1 starter next year. Until that changes, I like the top of the rotation just fine the way it is.
Paxton is a free agent & the rest of this comment is pretty silly. They could be #1s... but wouldn't the rotation be better if they were 3s & 4s?