You forgot how much Correa would cost in your cons list. And that's a big one.
I suppose. While we're pricing things in, there are a bunch more things we could include.
Let's say the choice we're making is between spending 10/$360m to sign Correa through his age 36 season — I don't know what the real number would be, but I think that's plausible — and spending 1/$20m on Bogaerts and then either retaining him as a 30 year old FA for something like 7/$250 through his age 37 season — or else backing off having an elite SS for a year or two and putting an awful lot of chips on Mayer.
This ends up raising all manner of questions. How much is it worth to us to shore up the infield defense for the 2022 season? Does Bogaerts have positive trade value at 1/$20m? What could we get for Mayer in trade? If we still want to bet on Mayer, how much value would we anticipate Correa having in the trade market two to four years down the line? How long does Correa want to stick at SS? Does Correa want an opt-out? Are we extending Devers in either of these scenarios?
Unfortunately, we don't know yet if there will still be draft compensation for departing FAs next year...
Personally, I think that the 2022 club is one worth investing in, because we have Sale and Eovaldi healthy and at the top of our rotation
right now, and are well-positioned to go over the cap to both shore up infield defense issues and add some length and thump to the lineup. So it would be sad, in my view, to forego the possibility of an absolutely devastating Devers-Correa-Bogaerts-Dalbec infield just to lose Bogaerts next year anyway. (Then, we step back and reset the cap/incorporate the kids in 2023 and aim to contend again with a new young core in '24-'25-'26.)