I'm pretty sure Swanson and Turner will be re-signed by their current clubs. Take those names out and the market looks pretty bleak.
Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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He’s not a starting option, but Andrus’s $15M club option for 23 was converted into a player option after he was traded (unless I’m reading it wrong). He’ll almost surely exercise that. Didi’s a likable player but his bat and glove are terrible fits here.
The fact that Correa and Bogaerts are both Boras guys is interesting. Don’t know how exactly it would factor, but it may make it easier to facilitate a CC signing and XB position switch than it might otherwise be.
Also, let’s not forget Story!
I'm not sure what this means, but you asked why people didn't give Cora a bunch of shit even though he was tainted with the Astros stink. And I think myself and other posters explained why: he was on the Sox, he was a part of a World Championship team, he had the Francona stamp of approval and he was already here as a manager leading them to the a championship too. Correa has been an Astro since he was drafted, most Sox fans don't know him from Adam. He has no reservoir of good will.
You're right. If Bogaerts leaves the Sox, Boston is probably screwed. But it's obvious the Sox have a finite pool of money, my guess is that Bogaerts would take less money to sign than Correa. Why wouldn't you extend yourself to sign Bogaerts, who even at his maximum, won't be as much as Correa? My contention is that shortstop isn't a broke position, there's no real need to fix it.
[grandpa simpson voice]This reminds me of what Lou Gorman did in the 89 offseason. He had future Hall of Famer Lee Smith as his closer but he grabbed Jeff Reardon for some reason. Why? I don't know, the back end of the bullpen wasn't broken and he had someone who was really good so he spent a bunch of his money on that. They probably could have used another starter in 1990 or a right fielder.[/grandpa simpson voice] I think that we're good at shortstop and if the Sox show Bogaerts a little love, we'll be good for another four seasons. Afterwards the Marcello Mayer (assuming he's not a bust) era can begin. Plus some of the money that they save from not signing Correa can go to Devers.
It's a good discussion point to have because it's such an interesting situation. If a player such as Correa wasn't on the market, you and I wouldn't be saying anything because there isn't many players that would unseat Bogaerts.
Totally agree. I just don't know how much of an upgrade Correa is over Bogaerts. I mean, I know that he is. But I'm not sure if his upgrade is both literally and figuratively worth it.
That's where I am. Xander didn't really figure things out with the bat until he turned 25, but since then they've been roughly equivalent hitters. Correa is a better defender and is a couple years younger, but Xander has had better health and been much better at staying on the field. I'm sure Correa will get a bigger contract and deserves it, but if Xander is willing to sign for a little less than market value with the Red Sox again, it's probably wiser to just stick with him.
Agreed, especially since we have other holes to fill and significant guys out there who can fill them. We have a guy at 6, and he's fantastic.
I can't imagine the Sox not addressing defense as the 2nd biggest need after they upgraded the starters.
One other option is extending Hernandez and plugging him at short until a more economical solution becomes available. To me, a season of patching together JBJ in center with someone else signals that vanilla possibility. Henry is going to spend that money somehow though. I just don't think it would be on a shortstop entering his 30's and moving down the defensive spectrum so it's got to be someone or sometwo or three else.
One other option is extending Hernandez and plugging him at short until a more economical solution becomes available. To me, a season of patching together JBJ in center with someone else signals that vanilla possibility. Henry is going to spend that money somehow though. I just don't think it would be on a shortstop entering his 30's and moving down the defensive spectrum so it's got to be someone or sometwo or three else.
Why would he sign a deal smaller than Corey Seager's? A ton of teams just got a lot of money to spend and Correa is the big FA SS. The Angels have a ton of money to play with right now after the CBA bump and losing the Pujols deal. Justin Upton is gone after next season. The Tigers, the Astros, and the Cubs also have loads of money to mess around with. Correa was hoping the CBA would be raised which would significantly open his market. He was the best SS on the market at the beginning of the offseason and is going to be asking for a contract that beats Lindor's. Xander is not as good as Correa but he will not be getting a 10 year $350 million deal next offseason if he opts out. He would probably get something a little better than what Baez got from the Tigers.
The list of rotation options is mostly guys that might become 4/5 starters, no? Houck and Whitlock have decent ceilings but the rest of the guys are mostly back of the rotation org depth.
I’m all for extending Hernández as a CF solution for a few years. Less keen on seeing him at short.
I’m surprised so many people are comfortable playing Bogaerts at short until Mayer’s ready (2025). It’s the sort of radical move that doesn’t seem radical because it’s the status quo.
Yes, it's such a radical move to keep the franchise cornerstone SS there for a couple more years until the next big prospect is ready.
Yes! The Sox are historically bad at converting ground balls into outs. And it’s only going to get worse with X at short.Yes, it's such a radical move to keep the franchise cornerstone SS there for a couple more years until the next big prospect is ready.
The conversation would be a little different if he didn’t have a looming opt-out, but it’s a bad idea to re-sign him as a shortstop. Keep his bat in town and play him elsewhere.
The case for signing a SS now:
- In 2021, we had the worst defense in baseball by defensive efficiency — and bottom third by pretty much all metrics. The infield defense in particular is a huge problem.
- Bogaerts has stated that he intends to opt out after '22.
- Bogaerts does not strike me as likely to sign another extension with Boston that Boston should sign. He will understandably want to be paid as a shortstop, but I don't think Boston should pay him that way if his future with the team would be at 2B or in LF.
- Right now, Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are available. Both are comparable hitters to Bogaerts and better defenders.
- The Dodgers, Yankees, and Giants are likely not in the running. We're likely competing with the Cubs and Angels.
- Next year's FA class includes Trea Turner, Tim Anderson, and Dansby Swanson, but all are seen as likely to be retained by their current clubs.
- Loyalty to Bogaerts.
- Mayer is probably 2-3 seasons away.
What would a Xander extension look like realistically? 30 year old SS who knows he will have to move off the position and presumably really likes playing here. 6/$150 million? 7/$175?
Fangraphs projections from the beginning of the offseason put a Story contract at anywhere from 5/115 to 6/150.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
Story is a year younger and better defensively. Isn't that the territory for a Xander extension? He is a fan favorite that will be significantly less expensive than Correa and would probably just want additional years at a slightly higher salary. I guess if we sign Correa we can go ahead and shop Mayer for starting pitching.
Fangraphs projections from the beginning of the offseason put a Story contract at anywhere from 5/115 to 6/150.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
Story is a year younger and better defensively. Isn't that the territory for a Xander extension? He is a fan favorite that will be significantly less expensive than Correa and would probably just want additional years at a slightly higher salary. I guess if we sign Correa we can go ahead and shop Mayer for starting pitching.
Has Truck Day already happened? When do pitchers and catchers report? When should I tune in NESN for stories, without risking hockey and infomercials 24 hr per day?
It’s a big one, agreed. But it’s mitigated substantially by two factors. One, Correa is unusually young for a free agent, and two, the CBT was raised substantially, almost to the AAV of Correa’s contract alone by the time it would matter. It’ll be something like $244-48 by the time they’ll renegotiate the CBA.
I think this is the right way of looking at it. My guess is that they end up resigning X to something like that 5 or 6 year deal. He plays, say, this year and the following year at short, then moves to second, LF, or maybe third (with Devers to DH). The overpay of his SS salary at those positions is partially mitigated by the increases in the CBT (edit: not CBA!) during those back years of the deal. The Sox would stand a good chance of getting good production over the life of the contract, don't block Mayer, and keep a very popular player in Boston.
Is Bogaerts worth $25M a year as a LF, though? Is Devers worth that much per as a DH? I’ve maintained for a while now that the teams immediate future is tied up in what they plan on doing with these two guys and it hardly seems clear. At this point, though, why not just ride it out another year and see where you are? Signing another SS made sense when it was at least theoretically to get one at a good value; to pay $320-$370M for Correa when you’ve got Boagerts for at least a year and then Mayer as a top prospect doesn’t seem ideal to me.
Mandatory reporting date for all players is Sunday. The truck may already be there. As far as NESN, you may have to wait until 10 PM. You'd think they'd have Sox related programming. But it's not on the schedule yet. You may want to check in periodically. Just in case.
https://nesn.com/tv-schedule/
Both sides probably want to know what the construction of this year's roster is going to look like before committing to anything.
I think they will eventually sign some guys to long term mega-deals (whether it is their own guys on extensions or FA market), they are just going to very selective about it. My suspicion is that they don't think Xander is good enough in the field to justify. We shall see.
I suppose. While we're pricing things in, there are a bunch more things we could include.
Let's say the choice we're making is between spending 10/$360m to sign Correa through his age 36 season — I don't know what the real number would be, but I think that's plausible — and spending 1/$20m on Bogaerts and then either retaining him as a 30 year old FA for something like 7/$250 through his age 37 season — or else backing off having an elite SS for a year or two and putting an awful lot of chips on Mayer.
This ends up raising all manner of questions. How much is it worth to us to shore up the infield defense for the 2022 season? Does Bogaerts have positive trade value at 1/$20m? What could we get for Mayer in trade? If we still want to bet on Mayer, how much value would we anticipate Correa having in the trade market two to four years down the line? How long does Correa want to stick at SS? Does Correa want an opt-out? Are we extending Devers in either of these scenarios?
Unfortunately, we don't know yet if there will still be draft compensation for departing FAs next year...
Personally, I think that the 2022 club is one worth investing in, because we have Sale and Eovaldi healthy and at the top of our rotation right now, and are well-positioned to go over the cap to both shore up infield defense issues and add some length and thump to the lineup. So it would be sad, in my view, to forego the possibility of an absolutely devastating Devers-Correa-Bogaerts-Dalbec infield just to lose Bogaerts next year anyway. (Then, we step back and reset the cap/incorporate the kids in 2023 and aim to contend again with a new young core in '24-'25-'26.)
Lindor wasn’t worth his contract in year 1; nothing is guaranteed to work. And some bets are obviously bad. If X wants 7 years, $250M+, he’s gone. But if we could extend him for, say, 5/$140, giving him an opt out after year 3 and a player option for year 6 triggered by reasonable stats (600 PA?), then let’s explore that. It might not be feasible. But maybe, like Lester, he just wants to stay here and be fairly compensated. So give him the years/control that make him feel wanted and respected.
I’d much rather do that than sign Correa for 10/$325M
I’d much rather do that than sign Correa for 10/$325M
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Some nostalgia. Video of fans attending a game in Fenway in the 80s
View: https://twitter.com/GBHArchives/status/1502459915641753601
View: https://twitter.com/gbharchives/status/1499965408408969218?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/GBHArchives/status/1502459915641753601
View: https://twitter.com/gbharchives/status/1499965408408969218?s=21
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It's true, it's a limited SS with Bloom. And a new phase may soon begin. Though he's been reluctant to spend not only money, but prospects, too. Basically, he's holding assets tight. Might he soon shift into 4th gear? Maybe. I'm simply saying it's not inevitable. The Sox were in need of starting pitching this off season, and he lapped up a 42-year-old, a guy in TJ recovery, and a third guy who is clearly way past his prime ...Why not start spending like the Dodgers on the rotation if he was simply waiting for the new CBA? It seems sensible to believe that he will eventually spend more ... but to what extent, it's all conjecture - whether you think he's about to spend like the Dodgers, or think he'll keep things thrifty. Conjecture - unless you're part of the Sox FO.
Though I can say with some conviction, buying multiple expensive FA in the same off season will not happen on his watch, which is in part what I was responding to originally ... (btw, never heard him say the model is the Dodgers, but I'll take your word ...)
HOLY SHIT! I have talked to my daughters about the “Peanuts! Pistachios!” guy all the time — mimicking his accent and saying it (which they hate) and telling them how he was such a big part of my early experiences going to Fenway with my Dad. Thanks for sharing this video — brought back a lot. Too funny.
It is a rather stark contrast to today. I'm really surprised by the lack of hats of any sort. Hell I've always had a Red Sox hat of some sort since the 60's and that big Twins Enterprises souvenir shop was open when I first went to Fenway in the early 70's
Would be a good fit, IMO. Likely available on a short term deal and hits lefties- which is really needed in an OF that currently has two players (Verdugo, Bradley) who don’t hit lefties well.
Not wild about Soler. The bat is probably a little undervalued now that he’s liberated from the Royals’ contact-oriented hitting philosophy but he’s a butcher in right field (-7 OAA in 2021). If they’re considering him for DH, Schwarber’s a far better fit.
I'd imagine they're looking at him as a backup plan should Schwarber not work out. That's what I hope, anyway. He's got a decent enough bat, but yeah, a pretty awful defensive player. DH is the only place to play him, though you can live with him in the OF in a pinch.
Soler could play left with Verdugo in RF. I know Verdugo isn't exactly Dewey out there either, but it would be the better deployment should they sign Soler.
Did they trade JD? Isn’t he the DH?
Verdugo, Hernandez, Bradley, Soler seems like a decent enough OF, if they can’t land Schwarber or Suzuki. Against lefties, Bradley sits and Soler plays LF, and you can move Verdugo to RF. Also allows the flexibility to mix and match with Hernandez playing 2b if needed.
Soler’s a pretty good hitter; like a 115 OPS+ over the past three years.
Verdugo, Hernandez, Bradley, Soler seems like a decent enough OF, if they can’t land Schwarber or Suzuki. Against lefties, Bradley sits and Soler plays LF, and you can move Verdugo to RF. Also allows the flexibility to mix and match with Hernandez playing 2b if needed.
Soler’s a pretty good hitter; like a 115 OPS+ over the past three years.
Anytime! Here is another throwback
View: https://twitter.com/gbharchives/status/1443715221718282246?s=21
