Off the 26, and why do you think this? Do you think he's considerably worse than Josh Taylor? Or that he has more value?Darwinzon is definitely a piece you’d move off the 25.
Off the 26, and why do you think this? Do you think he's considerably worse than Josh Taylor? Or that he has more value?Darwinzon is definitely a piece you’d move off the 25.
Both. And if we want to upgrade pitching we are going to need spots.Off the 26, and why do you think this? Do you think he's considerably worse than Josh Taylor? Or that he has more value?
His statements seems like he’s looking for modest upgrades, which is smart.Based on what?
There was hope moving Darwinzon to the bullpen would help him repeat his delivery and limit the walks. That hasn't appeared to happen. I doubt there has been any talk of moving him back to SP either though. He wouldn't be able to get through the games. He's not very efficient. I wonder if any other teams would possibly value him more if they see him as a starter.Both. And if we want to upgrade pitching we are going to need spots.
Sorry, my mistake in that I wasn't clear. I was wondering why you think Jeter Downs would push the Red Sox to the front of the line for ScherzerHis statements seems like he’s looking for modest upgrades, which is smart.
A top 35 mlb prospect plus a couple in our 20-25 range for 2-3 month rental is a pretty strong package? Maybe I’m off here.Sorry, my mistake in that I wasn't clear. I was wondering why you think Jeter Downs would push the Red Sox to the front of the line for Scherzer
What makes you think Downs is a top 35 mlb prospect? He's never ranked that highly and has struggled this year. Going into the year on BA, he was 71st, on MLB he was 49. To date, he is hitting .209/.282/.335 in 214 PA with 17bb/65k. His ranking is not going to get better. He may drop out of the top 100.A top 35 mlb prospect plus a couple in our 20-25 range for 2-3 month rental is a pretty strong package? Maybe I’m off here.
35 here:What makes you think Downs is a top 35 mlb prospect? He's never ranked that highly and has struggled this year. Going into the year on BA, he was 71st, on MLB he was 49. To date, he is hitting .209/.282/.335 in 214 PA with 17bb/65k. His ranking is not going to get better. He may drop out of the top 100.
Weird that baseball reference has MLB's ranking wrong.
If your analysis is accurate it’s exactly when you trade a 35th ranked prospect.Weird that baseball reference has MLB's ranking wrong.
The world is a better place when the people who care about how "white" a player is accidentally latch onto a player of Puerto Rican descent.By every metric, Arroyo has been quite lucky this year. He genuinely seems like a good character guy and I think he’s fallen into scrappy white guy dirt dog binkydom, for better or worse, but I’m still not convinced he’s a better bet than Downs.
Either way, I think it’s a pretty serious pivot to roll with 3 1/2 arb years of Arroyo over 6+ of a Top 40 prospect in Downs. Maybe that fits better with Yorke’s ETA? If that’s the way Bloom wants to go, I’m very eager to see what Downs will fetch in a trade.
He is 89th on FG’s post-draft ranking, FWIW. My thought is that he’ll be good in the long-run, but I don’t think it’s a great idea to trade away Arroyo to make room for him or anything. I’d go so far as to say the current situation is what you want: Arroyo can start at the position without tanking you, but if Downs suddenly shows he’s ready you won’t feel bad about benching/ditching him.What makes you think Downs is a top 35 mlb prospect? He's never ranked that highly and has struggled this year. Going into the year on BA, he was 71st, on MLB he was 49. To date, he is hitting .209/.282/.335 in 214 PA with 17bb/65k. His ranking is not going to get better. He may drop out of the top 100.
I've been saying for awhile out of the top prospects, Gilberto and Downs are the 2 I'd be ok with moving. To be fair, Downs basically skipped AA and that's asking a lot. His struggles aren't shocking but it's still going to hurt his value. I think Arroyo with Yorke in the pipeline makes Downs expandable and I think Gilberto is a high priced lottery ticket (granted with a huge jackpot). The OF also doesn't really look like a huge position of need and Gilberto is pretty far away.If your analysis is accurate it’s exactly when you trade a 35th ranked prospect.
That makes sense. I couldn't see how he could have possibly climbed the rankings with the year he is having. I sort of dismissed MLB's rankings years back when they had Bryce Brentz as the Sox 2nd best prospect. That was awhile ago so maybe they've gotten better.The way that mlb.com's prospect rankings work is they just move everyone up one notch when guys ahead of them graduate, and they have yet to rerank this year, so all that means is that Downs was #49 coming into the season and 14 guys ahead of him have graduated so far, but that list doesn't take into account 2021 yet at all.
Well, we certainly avoided a Bagwellian disaster by holding onto the majority of that bunch.A decade ago even. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=bos You are a prospect nerd like me so I'm guessing you know just how bad that list was even at the time. Although wrong team.
One of the guys I can’t bear to watch. Now I know how ITP felt about Kimbrel.Darwinzon is definitely a piece you’d move off the 25.
Had Rizzo already been dealt by then? I'm still pissed that Theo valued Lars F'in Anderson over Rizzo... it seemed obvious but somehow Rizzo never had a higher rank on ANY list higher than Anderson. Thinking back.. the entire Adrian Gonzalez trade was a disaster. Theo just had his white whales that he was obsessed with (Crawford and Lugo) and nothing was stopping him... but could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.Well, we certainly avoided a Bagwellian disaster by holding onto the majority of that bunch.
Iglesias played well, got us Peavy, and had a career.
Doubront got us two seasons of serviceable bullpen piece Robbie Ross.
Middlebrooks gave us a Dalbecian shot in the arm in the lost year of 2012, before Dalbecing in 2013 and on, and landing us backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.
Stolmy was one body of many in the Brockholt trade.
Doubront also had a nice run in the 2013 post-seasonWell, we certainly avoided a Bagwellian disaster by holding onto the majority of that bunch.
Iglesias played well, got us Peavy, and had a career.
Doubront got us two seasons of serviceable bullpen piece Robbie Ross.
Middlebrooks gave us a Dalbecian shot in the arm in the lost year of 2012, before Dalbecing in 2013 and on, and landing us backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.
Stolmy was one body of many in the Brockholt trade.
+1, Theo was great and all but this fixation on certain guys was extremely detrimental to his $100 million player development machine. Perhaps Youk at 1st would have prolonged his prime also. And if IIRC Beltre wanted to stay after 2010.Had Rizzo already been dealt by then? I'm still pissed that Theo valued Lars F'in Anderson over Rizzo... it seemed obvious but somehow Rizzo never had a higher rank on ANY list higher than Anderson. Thinking back.. the entire Adrian Gonzalez trade was a disaster. Theo just had his white whales that he was obsessed with (Crawford and Lugo) and nothing was stopping him... but could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.
That's always been one of my main regrets about that period. Wasn't Theo et al afraid that Beltre was having a career year looking for a big contract and it wasn't sustainable?could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.
Thank you. The original post caused me to do a spit take, and it took me until now to clean off the keyboard enough to respond.The world is a better place when the people who care about how "white" a player is accidentally latch onto a player of Puerto Rican descent.
Not that obvious, Lars had a rebound year in 2010 and performed ok as a 22 year old in AAA. Granted he was 2 years older than Rizzo who was only a level behind him.Had Rizzo already been dealt by then? I'm still pissed that Theo valued Lars F'in Anderson over Rizzo... it seemed obvious but somehow Rizzo never had a higher rank on ANY list higher than Anderson. Thinking back.. the entire Adrian Gonzalez trade was a disaster. Theo just had his white whales that he was obsessed with (Crawford and Lugo) and nothing was stopping him... but could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.
I don't know how to prove it as I wasn't on SoSH at the time... .but it's not "revisionist" for me at least. Rizzo was showing patience, discipline and power but just never had the pedigree. It was maddening to see him ranked lower than Anderson during that time and on another board at the time I was mentioning it often... as far back as '08 even, that Rizzo was a better prospect with more promise.Not that obvious, Lars had a rebound year in 2010 and performed ok as a 22 year old in AAA. Granted he was 2 years older than Rizzo who was only a level behind him.
There is a bit of revisionist history with Lars Anderson being a product of Lancaster. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anders002lar
Rizzo also didn't really break out until joining the Padres but was solid before then. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rizzo-001ant
IIRC, Lars developed a mental hang up about swinging the bat that would impact his career.
Chawson makes a good point, which is that we really need to be comparing on-field value of Arroyo + trade value of Downs vs. on-field value of Downs + trade value of Arroyo. And that's the sort of thing that is much easier for Bloom to gauge than it is for us. My guess would be that Downs has close to twice the trade value than Arroyo, basically because of remaining pre-arb service time.By every metric, Arroyo has been quite lucky this year. He genuinely seems like a good character guy and I think he’s fallen into scrappy white guy dirt dog binkydom, for better or worse, but I’m still not convinced he’s a better bet than Downs.
Either way, I think it’s a pretty serious pivot to roll with 3 1/2 arb years of Arroyo over 6+ of a Top 40 prospect in Downs. Maybe that fits better with Yorke’s ETA? If that’s the way Bloom wants to go, I’m very eager to see what Downs will fetch in a trade.
The Cubs may be a seller who does in fact want major leaguers back in trades. But I would guess that many/most sellers — e.g. the Pirates, Orioles, and likely the Rangers — would prefer players with zero service time or close to it.Sox need to give up talent for talent + money. An example: Josh Taylor and Darwinzon at $600K/ea for Kimbrel at $16M. Not that I'm recommending that, but the trading partner has to at least justify to its fan base that it's getting players of value in return.
I'm skeptical about trade rumors that involve giving up dreck for just a salary dump.
Now...I look forward to folks citing examples that prove I'm full of shit and that highly rated minor leaguers within the Red Sox system can fit that bill.
Lars Anderson has written several articles for The Athletic about his career, the minors, and baseball in general. If you were a scout or a GM, no one would have blamed you for having Anderson rated higher than Rizzo. Anderson was a gifted athleteNot that obvious, Lars had a rebound year in 2010 and performed ok as a 22 year old in AAA. Granted he was 2 years older than Rizzo who was only a level behind him.
There is a bit of revisionist history with Lars Anderson being a product of Lancaster. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anders002lar
Rizzo also didn't really break out until joining the Padres but was solid before then. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rizzo-001ant
IIRC, Lars developed a mental hang up about swinging the bat that would impact his career.
I will never be someone who says, “I have no regrets about my career. I wouldn’t change a thing.” I do. And I would.
Dang, you made an Athletic subscriber out of me just like that. Any sports publication that would put out a story I want to read that badly can have a few bucks from me.Lars Anderson has written several articles for The Athletic about his career, the minors, and baseball in general. If you were a scout or a GM, no one would have blamed you for having Anderson rated higher than Rizzo. Anderson was a gifted athlete
https://theathletic.com/470534/2018/08/20/from-the-boston-red-sox-to-the-solingen-alligators-making-sense-of-a-too-short-major-league-career/?source=user_shared_article
Agree that Yorke changes the calculus. Downs’ upside could be what we are seeing now with Arroyo. The unknown upside of Downs might be worth cashing out on.Chawson makes a good point, which is that we really need to be comparing on-field value of Arroyo + trade value of Downs vs. on-field value of Downs + trade value of Arroyo. And that's the sort of thing that is much easier for Bloom to gauge than it is for us. My guess would be that Downs has close to twice the trade value than Arroyo, basically because of remaining pre-arb service time.
If the FO decides that Arroyo to Yorke is a good 2B plan, then maybe we should cash that in.
The Cubs may be a seller who does in fact want major leaguers back in trades. But I would guess that many/most sellers — e.g. the Pirates, Orioles, and likely the Rangers — would prefer players with zero service time or close to it.
Also, Downs is a shortstop, but probably not in Boston anytime soon!Agree that Yorke changes the calculus. Downs’ upside could be what we are seeing now with Arroyo. The unknown upside of Downs might be worth cashing out on.
Haha, shoot. I didn’t mean to create an ad for The Athletic, but they do have some great content.Dang, you made an Athletic subscriber out of me just like that. Any sports publication that would put out a story I want to read that badly can have a few bucks from me.
The cusp of the algorithm of greatness.Weird that baseball reference has MLB's ranking wrong.
There's no chance that Bloom is going to base his decisions on what to pursue in the trade market on Duran alone. First, there's no way they'd put that sort of pressure on his shoulders in his first two weeks in the majors. Second, if those kind of decisions were contingent on Duran, he'd have been brought up much sooner than he was because of what you point out: the ridiculously small sample size.I understand it would be a ridiculously SSS, but is it in the Sox best interest to be playing Duran every day to see if he can meet the moment? If he can, maybe less emphasis on trading for another bat and more on pitching ....If Duran can lengthen the line up, maybe they can get by cobbling together first base with what they already have.
Yes, you're surely right about finding the right deal, and likely, too, about bringing him up sooner. Though you must also assume the FO has a priority list of needs to meet .... And not that you would announce to Duran, hey, if you play well that affects our decisions, but more: gather as much info as you can while you can.There's no chance that Bloom is going to base his decisions on what to pursue in the trade market on Duran alone. First, there's no way they'd put that sort of pressure on his shoulders in his first two weeks in the majors. Second, if those kind of decisions were contingent on Duran, he'd have been brought up much sooner than he was because of what you point out: the ridiculously small sample size.
I imagine that it isn't and never will be a bat vs pitching decision for Bloom (or any competent GM). He'll make and take calls on any player he thinks can make the ball club better. And he'll pull the trigger on any deal where the return fits the roster and is worth the cost.
That’s pretty much it. Hill got lucky for a month but otherwise has been pretty mediocre. He also seems to have maybe been a sticky guy, with a big dip after the rule change. He’s fungible and they have a bunch of other pitching coming back. This Dyer guy seems like a Rays wet dream—utility player who can solidly cover corner OF, 1B and C gives you a ton of roster flexibility.I think it’s just that the Rays have a lot of pitching, they want Patino up, Archer and Andersen are almost back, it’s a 26 man roster thing but @VORP Speed can presumably explain better than me.
I’d love both. Marte’s a stud worthy of a 2-3 extension, and Aguilar’s on a 1 cheap, 1 year deal. Jesus seems like such a fun dude, too. Those 2, plus a starter, is likely a pipe dream; but, man, a WS run wouldn’t be out of the question.Seems like the wrong Marlin, let's talk Aguilar.
Marte's definitely a stud but I'm pretty happy with our outfield. I'd rather fill positions of need.I’d love both. Marte’s a stud worthy of a 2-3 extension, and Aguilar’s on a 1 cheap, 1 year deal. Jesus seems like such a fun dude, too. Those 2, plus a starter, is likely a pipe dream; but, man, a WS run wouldn’t be out of the question.
I think it's a combination of price (in terms of prospects and luxury tax implications), actual upgrade, and the Sox' plans for Duran, Arroyo, Marwin, and Dalbec rest of season. Still, there are three 1B I've heard bandied about over the past few weeks, any of which would be a significant upgrade:Okay help me here, sorry for lack of content. But 1b seems the easiest place to find a hitter. An average 1b would be such a plus. A guy that is even an average hitter at 1b would be a massive upgrade. Is it hard to find that type of player?