Kind of. If you look at the OPS leaders at first base, everyone at the top plays for a contender. You have to get down to Schoop at .806 to find someone who might be available. It should be an easy position to fill, but there just happens to be no great talent on the market the year.
Aguilar's numbers - this year - are very close to Bryant's (obviously Bryant has been a much better player over the course of his career). Aguilar gets paid less and is under team control for another year (perfect if you project 2023 as Casas' arrival in the bigs). Plus, as you say, acquiring Aguilar might allow them to additionally get an arm. I don't think the offense needs much more of a boost than an upgrade at first base. Another good arm could be helpful, too, meanwhile.
Offensively Bryant has still been quite a bit better rate stat wise, but he is also an excellent baserunner, so the overall offensive improvement is larger before taking defensive flexibility into the equation.
I think that's right. Though the subsequent question then becomes the cost. I'm mindful of the team's position that it won't jeopardize the future. I think (hope) they're ready to spend some, if not too much. So, wonder about modest improvements. If you can get a 1 win upgrade at two positions, at much less the cost than getting a superstar, then perhaps you're wisely parceling out in measure for the present and the future.
I usually use this site to get a general sense. One package that works: Gilberto Jimenez, Brainer Bonaci, Brandon Howlett. Way too steep for me, fwiw.
Thing is, they don't need a "great talent" to upgrade from what they've gotten from 1B this year. They just need a middle of the road hitting, defensively competent 1B. Enough to raise the bar from black hole to roughly average. As we've discussed many many many times over many a winter, those kinds of 1B are typically abundant. Less so in July since you have to make a trade, but they're out there. It's just a matter of finding the right one at the right price.
4/15 is a ridiculously SSS to make that claim and by all accounts Duran's not a great defender. Marte is a known commodity at the plate, a 2x GG winner and is affordable as a rental. Also, due diligence on Bloom's part that presents opportunities to discuss the possibility of a package with Aguilar or perhaps another arm. Talking with execs from other teams about one player opens dialog and may present other "what if" scenarios including, "We've been talking with another team and the three of us might be in a better position to make something work." .
Agreed 100%. Even if his ceiling ends up being a solid platoon/4th OF piece, there is a need and value there.
I always wondered how teams quantified that since it is a thing. It definitely makes a huge difference in the playoffs.
I must admit that I am a believer in advanced metrics, though don't often do a deep dive into researching them (that's where you all come in to enlighten me) ... that said I'd like to hear the reasons for not to being high on Duran ... He has a consistent record of producing in MiLB, indeed, with improving power. He is now the fastest player on the team, and according to reports his defense is coming along. His prospect rankings jumped this season, and he looks good to the eye test. What's not to like?
I agree with this. Using that trade simulator site above to illustrate the price difference, it validated this:
This is the part of OCD SS' post that I was in agreement with.
I basically agree with everything you've said, I just wanted to put some numbers to this part because Duran did make some noise in A ball. In 2018 he played 37 games in Lowell and 30 games in Greenville (302 PAs), combined for a .357/.394/.516 at low A and A. The next year in 50 games at Salem (226 PAs) he slashed .387/.456/.543 and got called up to AA. For sure in AA he hit a wall but I don't know if there was no indication at any level that he could adjust to the high minors/majors. There was some hope he could find a pulse again at AA after 2019. I still hope him to be a David Murphy type with "99" speed, so to speak. That might be a player worth starting in LF or CF going forward but there's certainly also the possibility he doesn't have an 'everyday' skill set.
He's a perfect fit for what we need, the Cubs basically need to trade for him or let him walk, there aren't any other contenders that clearly need a 1B, the price will probably be reasonable and given the overlap between their front office and ours I imagine it's not too hard to find not-premium prospects they would be interested in.
This is the type of nuanced analysis that makes the main board such a special place.
"Hey Al, I'm looking for a veteran RHH DH/1B type, preferably with post-season leadership experience, and under control for at least two more years. I can't agree to any money changing hands - not a single penny, but the good news is I'd be willing to absorb $29,999,999.99 in salary. Got anyone like that?"
We could have had him as a waiver claim in 2019. I have no idea why we didn't do it then. It's not like the though of Bobby Dalbec or Michael Chavis manning first for the foreseeable future looked so good....
Hamels isn't anyone to pin any high hopes on at this stage. Unless he signs a minor league deal so he can spend some time ramping up his pitch count in Worcester, he doesn't really offer a lot. I mean, if he signed tomorrow on a major league deal, he's a 1-2 inning opener or a reliever. I don't think either really makes the Sox that much better than they are now. If he wants to have an impact on a contending team, he should have staged his workouts in mid-May, not mid-July.
This and a couple of other posts have me intrigued by Aguilar. My main take away from it, though, is how even Schoop’s pedestrian numbers against righties represent such a significant upgrade over the production the Sox have gotten out of 1B. Generally speaking, I favor giving young players lots of runway to hit their stride. But I think we’re at the point where we know who Bobby Dalbec is, and it’s exactly the player we’ve seen this year.
I don’t have a super-strong opinion on which 1B to trade for, but I really don’t think it’s worth getting too worked up about having to give up someone like Lugo rather than someone like Cannon to get a certain player. Neither is particularly likely to contribute in a meaningful way to the MLB Red Sox at this point.
You’ve convinced me. I was in the Rizzo camp but now I think Aguilar would make more sense.
I know you're joking, but wouldn't it be cool to have him hit his 500th home run and his 3000th hit as a Sox player? Even limping along towards the end, he'll get there either this season or next, unless something catastrophic happens.
This is going to be a bit of a wild card when it comes to Bloom's decision making process. The deadline is just 5 days away and first base still seems to be the biggest positional need, both in the field and at the plate. Santana, Gonzalez, Dalbec and Chavis are all less than desirable options as this team looks to position itself for a deep playoff run. Arroyo seemed like a decent option to try out there, but that experiment's on hold and with the deadline clock ticking Franchy's yet to take his turn. I'd like to see what Aguilar might do if he's inserted into this lineup and if they can somehow swing a deal including Marte without breaking the farm they will have greatly improved the offense and defense of this team.
No, that wouldn’t happen. The return on an Aguilar trade would seem to be something like the Castellanos/Cannon deal everyone side-eyed when they were pulled from their games the other night.
No, Aguilar's not going to command that sort of return and that's not something that would even be considered by Chaim.
