Trade deadline

E5 Yaz

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Frazier is the most over-rated player in baseball right now, he's going to crash back to mediocrity in the second half
Yes, he's having an outlier season, but "most overrated player in baseball" is a stretch. He's been pretty consistent throughout his career. We don't need him to be Joe Morgan.
 

bosockboy

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There's no mutual option. The contract ends after this season. But here's an interesting piece of the puzzle per Cot's/BP:







That first box makes me wonder if any acquiring team is responsible for those deferred payments. If so, that could be a deal breaker. Does any team want to bung up their payroll $15M a year for 7 years?

His prorated portion of the luxury tax would be close to $10M. That puts the Sox over the cap.

This makes it seem that Scherzer isn't getting paid a salary this year. Strange. Maybe it's just the wording and I'm not fully understanding...
I meant Schwarber. Sorry.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That first box makes me wonder if any acquiring team is responsible for those deferred payments. If so, that could be a deal breaker. Does any team want to bung up their payroll $15M a year for 7 years?
I don't believe the acquiring team would be responsible for the deferred payments on past years salary. They may be responsible for at least a pro-rated portion of any deferred salary for this year though. Regardless, the deferred payments would not affect a team's payroll moving forward as that money has already been counted against the Nats' payroll for the past seasons. Luxury tax calculations are based on the total value of the deal divided by the length of the contract. Doesn't matter when the payments are actually made.
 

BaseballJones

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Ugly last 11 games for the Sox.

- 4-7 record
- Lost last three series (WLL, WLL, WLL)
- Outside of an 11-run outburst on July 9 vs Philly, they've scored 6, 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 1, 1 runs, for an average of 3.1 per game
- Have seen TB gain 4 games in the standings

And they have 14 straight to play vs Tor, TB, and NYY. Then after 3 vs Det, it's another 6 vs Tor and TB. So 20 of the next 23 are against Tor, TB, and NYY.

So the Sox have their work cut out for them. Clearly they are outperforming almost all expectations on the whole. It would be nice to see them get back to consistent winning.

Trade deadline needs: 1b, SP are the priorities. Sale looks to be on track to be potentially the best "trade deadline" (close enough) pickup in baseball. So that should help a TON. He looks superb from all accounts. Imagine replacing Garrett Richards with essentially 2017 Chris Sale. That's what might happen here, given the reports on how well he's throwing and how strong he looks. Then it boils down to 1b. What's the solution there? I'd definitely explore Rizzo, though I will say he's not exactly lighting it up. Between last year and this year he's slashing .236/.343/.424/.767, with a 109 ops+. An improvement, still, but there might be a better, more cost-effective way to upgrade at 1b.

Part of the problem is Renfroe's slide. He was hitting great when the Sox were rolling. But over his last 12 games, he's slashed .200/.275/.289/.563, with 1 homer and 5 rbi. That's not good enough. They need him to at least do *some* damage to lengthen the lineup.
 

YTF

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I know we all like Dalbec but he is 27 next year and has been god awful this season. Why would anyone want him as part of the trade package? There are much better assets in our organization that teams will target. I dont think anyone is going to give us much for what is really looking like a AAAA 1B.
I'm going to take a shot at this. Roles reversed for a minute and you are a GM with no immediate 1B solutions in your system. The Sox need a rental for the rotation, pen, perhaps even a position player. Comparatively speaking Dalbec's current salary of $575,000 is nothing. He's not arbitration eligible until '24 and FA eligible in '27. Oh and perhaps you're a "small market team". You don't consider Dalbec as a cost efficient, low risk, potential high reward PART of a way to shed salary? He's not going to be the feature draw in most deals, but I think some teams might be happy have him included in a package.
 

E5 Yaz

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Part of the problem is Renfroe's slide. He was hitting great when the Sox were rolling. But over his last 12 games, he's slashed .200/.275/.289/.563, with 1 homer and 5 rbi. That's not good enough. They need him to at least do *some* damage to lengthen the lineup.
Out of curiosity, what the split on this vs LHP and RHP?
 

PrometheusWakefield

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I'm going to take a shot at this. Roles reversed for a minute and you are a GM with no immediate 1B solutions in your system. The Sox need a rental for the rotation, pen, perhaps even a position player. Comparatively speaking Dalbec's current salary of $575,000 is nothing. He's not arbitration eligible until '24 and FA eligible in '27. Oh and perhaps you're a "small market team". You don't consider Dalbec as a cost efficient, low risk, potential high reward PART of a way to shed salary? He's not going to be the feature draw in most deals, but I think some teams might be happy have him included in a package.
He's 26 and he's striking out over 37% of the time. It's very easy to find a guy who could probably hit for tremendous power if he could only solve major contact problems like the problems Dalbec is having at the plate. I bet there are a half dozen guys more promising than Dalbec available this offseason as Rule V picks. He's a very borderline major league player right now with zero trade value.
 

YTF

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He's 26 and he's striking out over 37% of the time. It's very easy to find a guy who could probably hit for tremendous power if he could only solve major contact problems like the problems Dalbec is having at the plate. I bet there are a half dozen guys more promising than Dalbec available this offseason as Rule V picks. He's a very borderline major league player right now with zero trade value.
What you've written doesn't address the essence of my post. You've got a guy that you're looking to move and you can shed payroll. Again, Dalbec's not the center piece in any deal and accepting him in a deal doesn't prevent a team from exploring other options. At his cost and years of control where's the risk? If you're a shitty club, with no money and a need why not take a shot?
 
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Danny_Darwin

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Not a name I’ve seen discussed too much around here, but Jay Jaffe floats a Gallo-to-Boston suggestion. Great fit, but - stop me if you think that you’ve heard this one before - I have some doubts that Bloom would meet Texas’s price, even though Gallo isn’t a rental.
 

chawson

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Part of the problem is Renfroe's slide. He was hitting great when the Sox were rolling. But over his last 12 games, he's slashed .200/.275/.289/.563, with 1 homer and 5 rbi. That's not good enough. They need him to at least do *some* damage to lengthen the lineup.
FWIW, Renfroe’s xstats over those 12 games are fine (.350 xwOBA vs. .254 wOBA), if a little tilted toward LHP. I’m cautiously optimistic it’s a regular mini-slump and not the start of a collapse.

Edit: lol, yeah he’s fine
 
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BornToRun

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Regarding Gallo: Fangraphs has started their annual trade value series and Gallo is an honorable mention. It may take a bit to get him.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-intro-and-honorable-mentions/

He would definitely be an upgrade, but from purely the entertainment factor the three true outcome thing is kind of dull to watch.
Couldn’t care less. I enjoy plate discipline and I enjoy mammoth homers. Not sure I’d pay the price to get him but I can’t say I wouldn’t love to see him wear the uniform.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ian Cundall, who does an excellent job over at Sox Prospects and has watched Duran closely since he was drafted, put together this updated report on his overall game when Duran was called up:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2021/07/scouting-report-update-jarren-duran.html?m=1

Calls him a potentially average outfielder but makes clear he’s not there yet, and may never get there. To be clear, this is not some recent assessment.Duran’s conversion from 2B has been a little rocky.

Duran is a very exciting prospect, but he definitely has questions about both his defensive and offensive (home/away splits in AAA are concerning, and they’re still using the juiced ball down there) potential that have yet to be answered.

I, too, love Jimenez but to be fair, similar questions persist about his game as well. He is hardly a slam-dunk defensive outfielder and swing adjustments that he made last year during the pandemic to tap into his power potential have apparently not been implemented during game action so far this year.

still and all, I believe that speculation about trading ANY of the Sox’ top dozen or so prospects this season is wishful thinking. And I am glad that it is. Everything about Bloom’s stated approach and about the approach of both his former team and the team his former boss now runs tells us that he thinks long term and that he believes he can develop his own stars. I don’t seem him trading his cheap and flexible assets for another team’s costly ones just to give the Sox marginally better odds in the MLB playoffs crapshoot. I think Scherzer and his ilk, in other words, are pipe dreams. Perhaps I’ll be proven wrong but I think something like a trade of a mid-level prospect for a 1B bat who can hit righties is a more likely Scenario.
I made a post in the Gilberto thread talking about how he reminds of of pre 2021 Duran in a lot of ways. Granted he was younger at each level, but both succeeded at lower levels with high BAbips due to their speed. Both hit for absolutely no power. Both made up for poor instincts and poor routes with their speed as well. Duran walked a bit more though.

I wasn't high on Duran going into the year and figured a lot of the "Duran added power to his game" talk was fluff. I 'd believe it when I see it. I saw it. Pedro Castellanos has also clearly made some adjustments to his swing in mid 2019 and has tapped into his plus power. It makes me think maybe there is hope for Gilberto to add some power, too. If he doesn't, I'm not sure he's anything more than a 5th OF. With more power, hopefully would come more walks. Stateside, he has 21 walks/87ks and 5 HRs in 500 PA. Right now, his career ISO is actually under .100 (barely, it's .099) in 784 PA. I've also seen scouting reports saying he should develop into an average CF and scouting reports that say he already is and could be a lot better.

I'm betting against Gilberto and if there is a player worth acquiring that requires a top prospect, I'm steering teams towards him. That doesn't mean I'd be dumping him for a 1b rental.
 

BringBackMo

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I made a post in the Gilberto thread talking about how he reminds of of pre 2021 Duran in a lot of ways. Granted he was younger at each level, but both succeeded at lower levels with high BAbips due to their speed. Both hit for absolutely no power. Both made up for poor instincts and poor routes with their speed as well. Duran walked a bit more though.

I wasn't high on Duran going into the year and figured a lot of the "Duran added power to his game" talk was fluff. I 'd believe it when I see it. I saw it. Pedro Castellanos has also clearly made some adjustments to his swing in mid 2019 and has tapped into his plus power. It makes me think maybe there is hope for Gilberto to add some power, too. If he doesn't, I'm not sure he's anything more than a 5th OF. With more power, hopefully would come more walks. Stateside, he has 21 walks/87ks and 5 HRs in 500 PA. Right now, his career ISO is actually under .100 (barely, it's .099) in 784 PA. I've also seen scouting reports saying he should develop into an average CF and scouting reports that say he already is and could be a lot better.

I'm betting against Gilberto and if there is a player worth acquiring that requires a top prospect, I'm steering teams towards him. That doesn't mean I'd be dumping him for a 1b rental.
This is an excellent post. One thing to add on Gilberto and one quibble: He got off to a really nice start this season before slumping. The Sox Prospects guys have speculated that he may have been dealing with some nagging injuries that affected him. That seems reasonable considering that he was also playing less CF (sharing the position with Ceddanne Rafaela), and you have to wonder if that was in part to give him time to heal up at the less-demanding corner outfield positions. If the injury thing is correct, I wonder if that could also have played into his power not translating so far.

my only real quibble is that Jimenez to me is exactly the kind of player that I think Bloom will gamble on developing rather than trading. You made clear you wouldn’t trade him for a rental so I’m not implying that you’re advocating dumping him for whatever you can get. I just mean that my sense (could be totally wrong!) is that Bloom is still in asset-acquisition mode and won’t trade any of his more valuable pieces until the major league roster is more where he wants it. This has been such an entertaining season, and you can see a path toward a championship, but I believe that the Rays, Astros, Padres, and Dodgers have more realistic chances this year…and I suspect that Bloom may agree. If that’s true, then I just don’t see him trading Jimenez or other prospects of his caliber in the short term rather than seeing if they can develop for the Sox instead.

Glad you’re banging the Castellanos drum, by the way! His power breakthrough this year has been great to see. Can he become a legitimate prospect with MLB potential? Not sure yet, but he and Howlett are my favorite sleeper prospects.
 

nvalvo

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Here's a post that is a BUNCH OF NAMES.

We have an impending 40-man roster crunch coming this December, and so it might make sense to trade some players we are liable to lose to Rule 5 in any case for upgrades to the MLB roster.

This is a good problem to have; it means we have real prospects in the high minors again. While these players will need to be protected by acquiring teams as well, which can dampen their value for some teams, teams with less prospect depth in the high minors will still be interested.

The invaluable SoxProspects.com helpfully maintains a list of players who will need to be protected. Here is that list: I've added the Sox Prospects ranking for players in the top 60 or so, as a way of indexing which players will likely need to be protected: 25+ or unrated? Probably safe. Lower than that? Will need a roster spot. You could totally see the Phillies or whichever team with a bad farm system nabbing ThaddeusWard if he's unprotected, but Politi or Scherff are probably safe just by virtue of not being worth drafting.

Jecorrah Arnold
Brayan Bello (7)
Cole Brannen
Gary Calvo
Marco Cardoso
Pedro Castellanos (38)
Felix Cepeda
Kole Cottam
Kutter Crawford (52)
Ricardo Cubillan
Osvaldo De La Rosa
Tyler Dearden
Jonathan Diaz
Danny Diaz
Jeter Downs (3)
Tyler Esplin
Durbin Feltman (30)
Ryan Fernandez
Ryan Fitzgerald (57)
Antoni Flores
Frank German (32)
Rio Gomez
Devlin Granberg
Gilberto Jimenez (4)
Jose Larez
Dominic LoBrutto
Bryan Lucas
Charlie Madden
Alan Marrero
Elih Marrero
Joan Martinez
Alexander Montero
Oddanier Mosqueda
Brendan Nail
Brett Netzer
Tanner Nishioka
Kaleb Ort (41)
Yusniel Padron-Artiles
Aaron Perry
Antonio Police
AJ Politi (43)
Ceddanne Rafaela
Oscar Rangel
Tyreque Reed
Jesus Rosillo
Yasel Santana
Victor Santos
Zach Schellinger
Alex Scherff (53)
John Schreiber
Gregori Segovia
Chase Shugart
Miguel Suero
Jake Thompson
Thaddeus Ward (20)
Grant Williams
Josh Winckowski (15)

Just the 13 ranked guys, in order by ranking:

Jeter Downs (3)
Gilberto Jimenez (4)
Brayan Bello (7)
Josh Winckowski (15)
Thaddeus Ward (20)
Durbin Feltman (30)
Frank German (32)
Pedro Castellanos (38)
Kaleb Ort (41)
AJ Politi (43)
Kutter Crawford (52)
Alex Scherff (53)
Ryan Fitzgerald (57)

Add these guys to a similar number of prospect-types already on the 40-man, again with SP rankings if they are still eligible:

Jonathan Arauz (25)
Christian Arroyo
Michael Chavis
Franchy Cordero
Bobby Dalbec
Jarren Duran (2)
Jay Groome (10)
Ronaldo Hernandez (22)
Tanner Houck (5)
Bryan Mata (11)
Hudson Potts (26)
Yacksel Rios
Jeisson Rosario (24)
Connor Seabold (6)
Connor Wong (19)

Of those 26 players, we can roster 14 or so, depending on how many are also on the 26-man this winter. There should be a positional distribution — i.e. there need to be some catchers, etc.... The others need to be exposed to Rule V or waivers, or traded.

So that 14 is probably:
C: Wong, Hernandez
IF: Dalbec, Downs, Arroyo
OF: Cordero, Duran, Jimenez
SP: Houck, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello, Winckowski
RP: ?!?!?

Guys on the bubble (most likely to be traded): Chavis, Arauz, Potts, Rosario, Ward, Feltman, German, Castellanos

This exercise suggests to me that we will probably be trading some SP prospects by the deadline, which seems a bit bizarre given what we've been through to assemble them.
 

grimshaw

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Good stuff @nvalvo

I don't think there will be any shortage of these types of fringe major leaguers league wide due COVID disrupting service time, so I would expect the minor league free agent market to be flooded with useful filler rather than these players changing teams en masse. It wouldn't surprise me if the Sox re-signed quite a few of their own.
 

nvalvo

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Good stuff @nvalvo

I don't think there will be any shortage of these types of fringe major leaguers league wide due COVID disrupting service time, so I would expect the minor league free agent market to be flooded with useful filler rather than these players changing teams en masse. It wouldn't surprise me if the Sox re-signed quite a few of their own.
This is true, and we also have one fewer roster to fill in the minors and a new incoming draft — and so does everyone else. So there are going to be fewer "organizational" type players going forward, which will likely alter the Rule 5 dynamics in some way that I wouldn't be able to predict with any confidence.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is true, and we also have one fewer roster to fill in the minors and a new incoming draft — and so does everyone else. So there are going to be fewer "organizational" type players going forward, which will likely alter the Rule 5 dynamics in some way that I wouldn't be able to predict with any confidence.
Did the teams that were lost have organizational types? I guess if you use that word to mean "filler" so it counts 19 year olds who have no chance of ever making it. The upper levels (AA and AAA) shouldn't change much.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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This is true, and we also have one fewer roster to fill in the minors and a new incoming draft — and so does everyone else. So there are going to be fewer "organizational" type players going forward, which will likely alter the Rule 5 dynamics in some way that I wouldn't be able to predict with any confidence.
The Red Sox lost one affiliate — the Short Season A Lowell Spinners. They didn’t have a team in either of the Rookie leagues.
So they lost the 35 roster spots available at Lowell. But with the MLB reorg of the minors, they expanded rosters at all of the full season levels. Previously they had all been at 25. Now A and A+ have 30 spots, and AA and AAA have 28. So the net loss of roster spots at the affiliate level is 19. There is no roster limit at the new Rookie level (the complex level down in Florida).
I think it will be very interesting to see where this year’s signed draftees begin their careers. Previously, many were poured right into the Lowell roster — the short season leagues began play a couple weeks after the draft. Now? I guess a few of the more advanced players could get spots at low A Salem, maybe (big maybe) a couple at A+ Greenville. The rest get sent to Ft Myers.
The overall mLB roster shrinkage will certainly put pressure on fringe players who are not performing.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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To pull out one name from the list, I don’t think we need to worry about Thad Ward being selected. He underwent TJS in early June, so he’d be unlikely to be able to be on an active roster for the requisite 90 days the season following selection.
 

strek1

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Here's a post that is a BUNCH OF NAMES.

We have an impending 40-man roster crunch coming this December, and so it might make sense to trade some players we are liable to lose to Rule 5 in any case for upgrades to the MLB roster.

This is a good problem to have; it means we have real prospects in the high minors again. While these players will need to be protected by acquiring teams as well, which can dampen their value for some teams, teams with less prospect depth in the high minors will still be interested.

The invaluable SoxProspects.com helpfully maintains a list of players who will need to be protected. Here is that list: I've added the Sox Prospects ranking for players in the top 60 or so, as a way of indexing which players will likely need to be protected: 25+ or unrated? Probably safe. Lower than that? Will need a roster spot. You could totally see the Phillies or whichever team with a bad farm system nabbing ThaddeusWard if he's unprotected, but Politi or Scherff are probably safe just by virtue of not being worth drafting.

Jecorrah Arnold
Brayan Bello (7)
Cole Brannen
Gary Calvo
Marco Cardoso
Pedro Castellanos (38)
Felix Cepeda
Kole Cottam
Kutter Crawford (52)
Ricardo Cubillan
Osvaldo De La Rosa
Tyler Dearden
Jonathan Diaz
Danny Diaz
Jeter Downs (3)
Tyler Esplin
Durbin Feltman (30)
Ryan Fernandez
Ryan Fitzgerald (57)
Antoni Flores
Frank German (32)
Rio Gomez
Devlin Granberg
Gilberto Jimenez (4)
Jose Larez
Dominic LoBrutto
Bryan Lucas
Charlie Madden
Alan Marrero
Elih Marrero
Joan Martinez
Alexander Montero
Oddanier Mosqueda
Brendan Nail
Brett Netzer
Tanner Nishioka
Kaleb Ort (41)
Yusniel Padron-Artiles
Aaron Perry
Antonio Police
AJ Politi (43)
Ceddanne Rafaela
Oscar Rangel
Tyreque Reed
Jesus Rosillo
Yasel Santana
Victor Santos
Zach Schellinger
Alex Scherff (53)
John Schreiber
Gregori Segovia
Chase Shugart
Miguel Suero
Jake Thompson
Thaddeus Ward (20)
Grant Williams
Josh Winckowski (15)

Just the 13 ranked guys, in order by ranking:

Jeter Downs (3)
Gilberto Jimenez (4)
Brayan Bello (7)
Josh Winckowski (15)
Thaddeus Ward (20)
Durbin Feltman (30)
Frank German (32)
Pedro Castellanos (38)
Kaleb Ort (41)
AJ Politi (43)
Kutter Crawford (52)
Alex Scherff (53)
Ryan Fitzgerald (57)

Add these guys to a similar number of prospect-types already on the 40-man, again with SP rankings if they are still eligible:

Jonathan Arauz (25)
Christian Arroyo
Michael Chavis
Franchy Cordero
Bobby Dalbec
Jarren Duran (2)
Jay Groome (10)
Ronaldo Hernandez (22)
Tanner Houck (5)
Bryan Mata (11)
Hudson Potts (26)
Yacksel Rios
Jeisson Rosario (24)
Connor Seabold (6)
Connor Wong (19)

Of those 26 players, we can roster 14 or so, depending on how many are also on the 26-man this winter. There should be a positional distribution — i.e. there need to be some catchers, etc.... The others need to be exposed to Rule V or waivers, or traded.

So that 14 is probably:
C: Wong, Hernandez
IF: Dalbec, Downs, Arroyo
OF: Cordero, Duran, Jimenez
SP: Houck, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello, Winckowski
RP: ?!?!?

Guys on the bubble (most likely to be traded): Chavis, Arauz, Potts, Rosario, Ward, Feltman, German, Castellanos

This exercise suggests to me that we will probably be trading some SP prospects by the deadline, which seems a bit bizarre given what we've been through to assemble them.


Why isn't Triston Casas showing up anywhere?
 

strek1

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He signed at eighteen and hasn't yet finished his 4th professional season, so he isn't yet eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
Thanks , I was just thinking about him and Downs being signed at 18 but didn't realize Downs was in pro ball as long as he has.
 

chrisfont9

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For everyone talking about going big on a trade for Scherzer, I will just point out that we have a starting pitcher of similar caliber preparing to rejoin the team fairly soon. More is always better, but I think I'd rather they plug some more glaring holes on the position player side. Honestly, I'd be happy with a cheap trade for whoever is 2021 Doug Mientkiewicz. If we think Dalbec has value then maybe the key to unlocking it isn't to replace him so much as just take a bit of the pressure off.
 

Merkle's Boner

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https://theathletic.com/2721737/2021/07/22/red-sox-trade-tiers-who-can-they-afford-to-trade-away-to-get-what-they-need/?source=user_shared_article

I think this is a pretty useful breakdown of all of the players who could potentially be moved. I would quibble with some of the placements, like Taylor being untradeable, but it’s a good synopsis and a good reminder that guys we are barely familiar with have been parts of trades for key pieces in the past. Hello Hudson Potts and Jeisson Rosario (whom we got for Moreland) and Grant Gambrell who we got for Benintendi.
 

chawson

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https://theathletic.com/2721737/2021/07/22/red-sox-trade-tiers-who-can-they-afford-to-trade-away-to-get-what-they-need/?source=user_shared_article

I think this is a pretty useful breakdown of all of the players who could potentially be moved. I would quibble with some of the placements, like Taylor being untradeable, but it’s a good synopsis and a good reminder that guys we are barely familiar with have been parts of trades for key pieces in the past. Hello Hudson Potts and Jeisson Rosario (whom we got for Moreland) and Grant Gambrell who we got for Benintendi.
Not sure how he arrived at our 5-win center fielder being as tradeable as Bobby Dalbec, or more tradeable than Houck, a starter without a third pitch. I prefer nvalvo’s breakdown but this is a decent primer for the next week or so.

Have we reached the point where Christian Arroyo is likelier to be a Red Sox in 2023 than Jeter Downs? Do people agree with that? Seems like Arroyo’s 170 decent PAs have made a pretty major impact if that’s true.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Not sure how he arrived at our 5-win center fielder being as tradeable as Bobby Dalbec, or more tradeable than Houck, a starter without a third pitch. I prefer nvalvo’s breakdown but this is a decent primer for the next week or so.

Have we reached the point where Christian Arroyo is likelier to be a Red Sox in 2023 than Jeter Downs? Do people agree with that? Seems like Arroyo’s 170 decent PAs have made a pretty major impact if that’s true.
Don't underestimate the buzz about Houck after his performance last season.... and has been noted before... .those two pitches are considered to be "Plus Plus". Just having a third "show me" pitch with two pitches of that caliber can make for a very good (likely not a "no. 2" quality) starter. That's a seriously valuable pitcher at his cost. I'm very bullish on him and want him with the Sox for a loooong time.
 

chrisfont9

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Not sure how he arrived at our 5-win center fielder being as tradeable as Bobby Dalbec, or more tradeable than Houck, a starter without a third pitch. I prefer nvalvo’s breakdown but this is a decent primer for the next week or so.

Have we reached the point where Christian Arroyo is likelier to be a Red Sox in 2023 than Jeter Downs? Do people agree with that? Seems like Arroyo’s 170 decent PAs have made a pretty major impact if that’s true.
Anytime the Sox have to weigh a higher level prospect with no ML experience against a guy who has arrived sooner and looks fine, I can't help but remember Scott Cooper, who cost us a HOF level player because he arrived in the majors first. Not saying Downs is Bagwell; just saying Chaim's job is not easy, at all. My guess is that 170 PAs aren't counted for much by the Sox, as it should be, and Arroyo's injury history has to be accounted for as well. But he's intriguing and if they can keep both until they know what they have, that seems like the best outcome.
 

BaseballJones

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Wasn’t Arroyo a first round draft pick? If so, it means that he has talent. Maybe he’s just finally clicking.
 

cantor44

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2013, 25th pick overall, HS SS, selected by the Giants.

He always hit well in the minors, but apart from 2017 (age 22) never really got an extended look at ML pitching.
To the eye test, it seems like he can hit. And field. But he never walks ...Nevertheless, overall seems like a good player. I'd be reluctant to let go of him.
 

chawson

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To the eye test, it seems like he can hit. And field. But he never walks ...Nevertheless, overall seems like a good player. I'd be reluctant to let go of him.
By every metric, Arroyo has been quite lucky this year. He genuinely seems like a good character guy and I think he’s fallen into scrappy white guy dirt dog binkydom, for better or worse, but I’m still not convinced he’s a better bet than Downs.

Either way, I think it’s a pretty serious pivot to roll with 3 1/2 arb years of Arroyo over 6+ of a Top 40 prospect in Downs. Maybe that fits better with Yorke’s ETA? If that’s the way Bloom wants to go, I’m very eager to see what Downs will fetch in a trade.
 
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Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
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Arroyo is just about guaranteed to outperform Downs and his .617 OPS at AAA for the near future. The team is best served keeping them both where they are. Doing that costs you nothing but the opportunity to trade Downs when his value is low. I don't think the return you'd get for him this year would be vastly more than the nothing you'll get from him if he never figures out how to hit.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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To the eye test, it seems like he can hit. And field. But he never walks ...Nevertheless, overall seems like a good player. I'd be reluctant to let go of him.
He seems to understand what’s going on with the roster — that Santana and Marwin both suck but have spots because of defensive versatility. So he volunteers to learn/play first base. I’d like to see him also learn to play some outfield — that additional versatility plus his lucky bat with occasional pop would make Santanzalez expendable and turn “Downs or Arroyo” into “Downs AND Arroyo.” (Except for the injury thing. Staying off the IL would be another skill for Arroyo to work on.)
 

joe dokes

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Don't underestimate the buzz about Houck after his performance last season.... and has been noted before... .those two pitches are considered to be "Plus Plus". Just having a third "show me" pitch with two pitches of that caliber can make for a very good (likely not a "no. 2" quality) starter. That's a seriously valuable pitcher at his cost. I'm very bullish on him and want him with the Sox for a loooong time.
The "starters need that third pitch" maxim is, in large part, a byproduct of the 7+IP/3-4 times-through-the-lineup starter (210-240 innings). Where 5-6 (180 IP) & 2-3 times through is now the max for all but a very very few, the third pitch becomes less important.
Long way of saying, yes, he could be quite valuable.
 

cantor44

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By every metric, Arroyo has been quite lucky this year. He genuinely seems like a good character guy and I think he’s fallen into scrappy white guy dirt dog binkydom, for better or worse, but I’m still not convinced he’s a better bet than Downs.

Either way, I think it’s a pretty serious pivot to roll with 3 1/2 arb years of Arroyo over 6+ of a Top 40 prospect in Downs. Maybe that fits better with Yorke’s ETA? If that’s the way Bloom wants to go, I’m very eager to see what Downs will fetch in a trade.
I know his BAbip is high ... and yet ... just in your own viewing of the games, he does seem to make hard contact a lot, no? ... But I certainly acknowledge I may be suffering selective perception/wishful thinking ... (though don't think he's a binky for me; I'll reserve that for Duran) ...
 

geoduck no quahog

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Sox need to give up talent for talent + money. An example: Josh Taylor and Darwinzon at $600K/ea for Kimbrel at $16M. Not that I'm recommending that, but the trading partner has to at least justify to its fan base that it's getting players of value in return.

I'm skeptical about trade rumors that involve giving up dreck for just a salary dump.

Now...I look forward to folks citing examples that prove I'm full of shit and that highly rated minor leaguers within the Red Sox system can fit that bill.
 

bosockboy

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Sox need to give up talent for talent + money. An example: Josh Taylor and Darwinzon at $600K/ea for Kimbrel at $16M. Not that I'm recommending that, but the trading partner has to at least justify to its fan base that it's getting players of value in return.

I'm skeptical about trade rumors that involve giving up dreck for just a salary dump.

Now...I look forward to folks citing examples that prove I'm full of shit and that highly rated minor leaguers within the Red Sox system can fit that bill.
Darwinzon is definitely a piece you’d move off the 25.