Trade deadline

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Both. And if we want to upgrade pitching we are going to need spots.
There was hope moving Darwinzon to the bullpen would help him repeat his delivery and limit the walks. That hasn't appeared to happen. I doubt there has been any talk of moving him back to SP either though. He wouldn't be able to get through the games. He's not very efficient. I wonder if any other teams would possibly value him more if they see him as a starter.

They are both under control for the same length, hit arb at the same time, both lefty. Darwinzon has 4 years of youth. He probably does have more value due to that but might be the worst of the 2 now. Curious enough, they are both at 31.0 ip, 3.77 era right now. There numbers are a lot alike, except Darwnzon gives up more walks/less hits and Taylor gives up less walks/more hits.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,017
Oregon
His statements seems like he’s looking for modest upgrades, which is smart.
Sorry, my mistake in that I wasn't clear. I was wondering why you think Jeter Downs would push the Red Sox to the front of the line for Scherzer
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,347
Re: Darwinzon.....Other than giving up 4 runs against the Yankees the guy has been very good actually for a while. I'm about to head out to a meeting so can't post extensively... and he always seems to be hanging by a thread, but he had over two months worth of appearances with a WHiP under 1.10 and an ERA under 2. That's a pretty valuable reliever. His overall line on the season isn't bad and I think likely to improve.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,863
St. Louis, MO
Sorry, my mistake in that I wasn't clear. I was wondering why you think Jeter Downs would push the Red Sox to the front of the line for Scherzer
A top 35 mlb prospect plus a couple in our 20-25 range for 2-3 month rental is a pretty strong package? Maybe I’m off here.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
A top 35 mlb prospect plus a couple in our 20-25 range for 2-3 month rental is a pretty strong package? Maybe I’m off here.
What makes you think Downs is a top 35 mlb prospect? He's never ranked that highly and has struggled this year. Going into the year on BA, he was 71st, on MLB he was 49. To date, he is hitting .209/.282/.335 in 214 PA with 17bb/65k. His ranking is not going to get better. He may drop out of the top 100.
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
By every metric, Arroyo has been quite lucky this year. He genuinely seems like a good character guy and I think he’s fallen into scrappy white guy dirt dog binkydom, for better or worse, but I’m still not convinced he’s a better bet than Downs.

Either way, I think it’s a pretty serious pivot to roll with 3 1/2 arb years of Arroyo over 6+ of a Top 40 prospect in Downs. Maybe that fits better with Yorke’s ETA? If that’s the way Bloom wants to go, I’m very eager to see what Downs will fetch in a trade.
The world is a better place when the people who care about how "white" a player is accidentally latch onto a player of Puerto Rican descent.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
What makes you think Downs is a top 35 mlb prospect? He's never ranked that highly and has struggled this year. Going into the year on BA, he was 71st, on MLB he was 49. To date, he is hitting .209/.282/.335 in 214 PA with 17bb/65k. His ranking is not going to get better. He may drop out of the top 100.
He is 89th on FG’s post-draft ranking, FWIW. My thought is that he’ll be good in the long-run, but I don’t think it’s a great idea to trade away Arroyo to make room for him or anything. I’d go so far as to say the current situation is what you want: Arroyo can start at the position without tanking you, but if Downs suddenly shows he’s ready you won’t feel bad about benching/ditching him.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,715
The way that mlb.com's prospect rankings work is they just move everyone up one notch when guys ahead of them graduate, and they have yet to rerank this year, so all that means is that Downs was #49 coming into the season and 14 guys ahead of him have graduated so far, but that list doesn't take into account 2021 yet at all.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
If your analysis is accurate it’s exactly when you trade a 35th ranked prospect.
I've been saying for awhile out of the top prospects, Gilberto and Downs are the 2 I'd be ok with moving. To be fair, Downs basically skipped AA and that's asking a lot. His struggles aren't shocking but it's still going to hurt his value. I think Arroyo with Yorke in the pipeline makes Downs expandable and I think Gilberto is a high priced lottery ticket (granted with a huge jackpot). The OF also doesn't really look like a huge position of need and Gilberto is pretty far away.

It's really weird trying to evaluate players in the minors these year. Is Kutter Crawford excelling because something is different or is it because he's a 25 year old in AA? Any other year, I'm saying the latter. This year, I have no idea... They were incredibly aggressive with Downs though.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
The way that mlb.com's prospect rankings work is they just move everyone up one notch when guys ahead of them graduate, and they have yet to rerank this year, so all that means is that Downs was #49 coming into the season and 14 guys ahead of him have graduated so far, but that list doesn't take into account 2021 yet at all.
That makes sense. I couldn't see how he could have possibly climbed the rankings with the year he is having. I sort of dismissed MLB's rankings years back when they had Bryce Brentz as the Sox 2nd best prospect. That was awhile ago so maybe they've gotten better.

A decade ago even. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=bos You are a prospect nerd like me so I'm guessing you know just how bad that list was even at the time. Although wrong team.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,679
Miami (oh, Miami!)
A decade ago even. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=bos You are a prospect nerd like me so I'm guessing you know just how bad that list was even at the time. Although wrong team.
Well, we certainly avoided a Bagwellian disaster by holding onto the majority of that bunch.

Iglesias played well, got us Peavy, and had a career.
Doubront got us two seasons of serviceable bullpen piece Robbie Ross.
Middlebrooks gave us a Dalbecian shot in the arm in the lost year of 2012, before Dalbecing in 2013 and on, and landing us backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.
Stolmy was one body of many in the Brockholt trade.
 

ArttyG12

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
100
Downs isn't on Keith Law's updated top 50 either. He's still a prospect but he's definitely taken a hit this year. Mayer/Duran/Casas have definitely passed him, and you could probably argue Yorke and Groome have too.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,347
Well, we certainly avoided a Bagwellian disaster by holding onto the majority of that bunch.

Iglesias played well, got us Peavy, and had a career.
Doubront got us two seasons of serviceable bullpen piece Robbie Ross.
Middlebrooks gave us a Dalbecian shot in the arm in the lost year of 2012, before Dalbecing in 2013 and on, and landing us backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.
Stolmy was one body of many in the Brockholt trade.
Had Rizzo already been dealt by then? I'm still pissed that Theo valued Lars F'in Anderson over Rizzo... it seemed obvious but somehow Rizzo never had a higher rank on ANY list higher than Anderson. Thinking back.. the entire Adrian Gonzalez trade was a disaster. Theo just had his white whales that he was obsessed with (Crawford and Lugo) and nothing was stopping him... but could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Well, we certainly avoided a Bagwellian disaster by holding onto the majority of that bunch.

Iglesias played well, got us Peavy, and had a career.
Doubront got us two seasons of serviceable bullpen piece Robbie Ross.
Middlebrooks gave us a Dalbecian shot in the arm in the lost year of 2012, before Dalbecing in 2013 and on, and landing us backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.
Stolmy was one body of many in the Brockholt trade.
Doubront also had a nice run in the 2013 post-season
 

SoxVindaloo

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 20, 2003
979
Titletown of the Aughts
Had Rizzo already been dealt by then? I'm still pissed that Theo valued Lars F'in Anderson over Rizzo... it seemed obvious but somehow Rizzo never had a higher rank on ANY list higher than Anderson. Thinking back.. the entire Adrian Gonzalez trade was a disaster. Theo just had his white whales that he was obsessed with (Crawford and Lugo) and nothing was stopping him... but could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.
+1, Theo was great and all but this fixation on certain guys was extremely detrimental to his $100 million player development machine. Perhaps Youk at 1st would have prolonged his prime also. And if IIRC Beltre wanted to stay after 2010.
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2005
4,460
Worcester
The world is a better place when the people who care about how "white" a player is accidentally latch onto a player of Puerto Rican descent.
Thank you. The original post caused me to do a spit take, and it took me until now to clean off the keyboard enough to respond.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Had Rizzo already been dealt by then? I'm still pissed that Theo valued Lars F'in Anderson over Rizzo... it seemed obvious but somehow Rizzo never had a higher rank on ANY list higher than Anderson. Thinking back.. the entire Adrian Gonzalez trade was a disaster. Theo just had his white whales that he was obsessed with (Crawford and Lugo) and nothing was stopping him... but could have just resigned Beltre, kept Youk at 1B another season or two and then brought up Rizzo.
Not that obvious, Lars had a rebound year in 2010 and performed ok as a 22 year old in AAA. Granted he was 2 years older than Rizzo who was only a level behind him.

There is a bit of revisionist history with Lars Anderson being a product of Lancaster. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anders002lar

Rizzo also didn't really break out until joining the Padres but was solid before then. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rizzo-001ant

IIRC, Lars developed a mental hang up about swinging the bat that would impact his career.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,347
Not that obvious, Lars had a rebound year in 2010 and performed ok as a 22 year old in AAA. Granted he was 2 years older than Rizzo who was only a level behind him.

There is a bit of revisionist history with Lars Anderson being a product of Lancaster. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anders002lar

Rizzo also didn't really break out until joining the Padres but was solid before then. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rizzo-001ant

IIRC, Lars developed a mental hang up about swinging the bat that would impact his career.
I don't know how to prove it as I wasn't on SoSH at the time... .but it's not "revisionist" for me at least. Rizzo was showing patience, discipline and power but just never had the pedigree. It was maddening to see him ranked lower than Anderson during that time and on another board at the time I was mentioning it often... as far back as '08 even, that Rizzo was a better prospect with more promise.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,479
Rogers Park
By every metric, Arroyo has been quite lucky this year. He genuinely seems like a good character guy and I think he’s fallen into scrappy white guy dirt dog binkydom, for better or worse, but I’m still not convinced he’s a better bet than Downs.

Either way, I think it’s a pretty serious pivot to roll with 3 1/2 arb years of Arroyo over 6+ of a Top 40 prospect in Downs. Maybe that fits better with Yorke’s ETA? If that’s the way Bloom wants to go, I’m very eager to see what Downs will fetch in a trade.
Chawson makes a good point, which is that we really need to be comparing on-field value of Arroyo + trade value of Downs vs. on-field value of Downs + trade value of Arroyo. And that's the sort of thing that is much easier for Bloom to gauge than it is for us. My guess would be that Downs has close to twice the trade value than Arroyo, basically because of remaining pre-arb service time.

If the FO decides that Arroyo to Yorke is a good 2B plan, then maybe we should cash that in.

Sox need to give up talent for talent + money. An example: Josh Taylor and Darwinzon at $600K/ea for Kimbrel at $16M. Not that I'm recommending that, but the trading partner has to at least justify to its fan base that it's getting players of value in return.

I'm skeptical about trade rumors that involve giving up dreck for just a salary dump.

Now...I look forward to folks citing examples that prove I'm full of shit and that highly rated minor leaguers within the Red Sox system can fit that bill.
The Cubs may be a seller who does in fact want major leaguers back in trades. But I would guess that many/most sellers — e.g. the Pirates, Orioles, and likely the Rangers — would prefer players with zero service time or close to it.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,619
CT
Not that obvious, Lars had a rebound year in 2010 and performed ok as a 22 year old in AAA. Granted he was 2 years older than Rizzo who was only a level behind him.

There is a bit of revisionist history with Lars Anderson being a product of Lancaster. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=anders002lar

Rizzo also didn't really break out until joining the Padres but was solid before then. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rizzo-001ant

IIRC, Lars developed a mental hang up about swinging the bat that would impact his career.
Lars Anderson has written several articles for The Athletic about his career, the minors, and baseball in general. If you were a scout or a GM, no one would have blamed you for having Anderson rated higher than Rizzo. Anderson was a gifted athlete

https://theathletic.com/470534/2018/08/20/from-the-boston-red-sox-to-the-solingen-alligators-making-sense-of-a-too-short-major-league-career/?source=user_shared_article

I will never be someone who says, “I have no regrets about my career. I wouldn’t change a thing.” I do. And I would.
 

amRadio

New Member
Feb 7, 2019
798
Just one persons opinion on Jeter Downs, but he's has had very few PAs in the high minors and I think there is still plenty of time for him to adjust and meet his potential. He is seeing the best pitching he has ever seen in his life right now and still seems to have enough strike zone recognition to help him stick as an every day player if his contact ability comes up. It's a big "if"; he's had 270 PAs in AA-AAA combined and has almost 28% Ks (not super) in that sample compared to 8.5% BB (fringe above average?). It might be a stretch to suggest Downs alone could land Scherzer, if he moves, but who knows. I think given his performance this year in AAA "shopping" him, for lack of a better term, might degrade his perceived value on the market to begin with and I'm not sure we should be punting on his potential quite yet. It's his 4th professional year and he's in AAA, it may have been an aggressive promotion but there is time for him to adjust.

If Downs had to be coupled with another significant top-5 prospect and a few lower down the list names would that be worth it for a rental? I think Scherzer puts us in really competitive October territory, provided we can hang on to the division in the mean time.

E: small fact correction on JD's service time in the minors


Lars Anderson has written several articles for The Athletic about his career, the minors, and baseball in general. If you were a scout or a GM, no one would have blamed you for having Anderson rated higher than Rizzo. Anderson was a gifted athlete

https://theathletic.com/470534/2018/08/20/from-the-boston-red-sox-to-the-solingen-alligators-making-sense-of-a-too-short-major-league-career/?source=user_shared_article
Dang, you made an Athletic subscriber out of me just like that. Any sports publication that would put out a story I want to read that badly can have a few bucks from me.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,863
St. Louis, MO
Chawson makes a good point, which is that we really need to be comparing on-field value of Arroyo + trade value of Downs vs. on-field value of Downs + trade value of Arroyo. And that's the sort of thing that is much easier for Bloom to gauge than it is for us. My guess would be that Downs has close to twice the trade value than Arroyo, basically because of remaining pre-arb service time.

If the FO decides that Arroyo to Yorke is a good 2B plan, then maybe we should cash that in.



The Cubs may be a seller who does in fact want major leaguers back in trades. But I would guess that many/most sellers — e.g. the Pirates, Orioles, and likely the Rangers — would prefer players with zero service time or close to it.
Agree that Yorke changes the calculus. Downs’ upside could be what we are seeing now with Arroyo. The unknown upside of Downs might be worth cashing out on.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
I dunno, I’m open to moving Downs, but Yorke is 19 and a year out of high school, we’re talking about an ETA of, what, 2025 at the earliest? It’s a little soon for this kind of talk. (Also, it’s my understanding that he might not stick at 2B, although I’ll grant that that bit of wisdom may have changed.)
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,619
CT
Dang, you made an Athletic subscriber out of me just like that. Any sports publication that would put out a story I want to read that badly can have a few bucks from me.
Haha, shoot. I didn’t mean to create an ad for The Athletic, but they do have some great content.
 

opes

Doctor Tongue
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Definately an upgrade over meadows. The twins got 2 AAA pitchers that could turn into something next year. Overall the twins did good getting something for Cruz. Fancher is basically cannon fodder with a 7+ era at AA. I haven't even heard a word about him in Minnesota.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
815
(B)Austin Texas
Rays trade SP Rich Hill, 6-4, 3.87 ERA, to Mets for reliever Tommy Hunter and minor league catcher Matt Dyer. Reading that caused an audible "Huh?" from me. Color me confused.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
815
(B)Austin Texas
More on the Rays' Rich Hill trade to the Mets for RP Tommy Hunter and MiLB C/UT Matt Dyer...

From Metsmerized, Tommy Hunter is on the 60 DL and "won't likely return" this season.

Dyer must be the prize. 2020 4th round pick by Mets, slashing .194/.329/.452/.781 with some speed (6 of 7 SBs) and pop, 7 2B, 7 HR in 124 ABs.

Also from Metsmerized: "Dyer is profiled as to having solid defense behind the plate, and a solid arm, but some wonder if his frame [6'4", 187 lb] can hold behind the plate. His arm also profiles well in the corner outfield, though he may not have the power to play there regularly. His defense in the infield is also noted for being average. Providing a versatility often coveted in today’s game, Dyer has a profile that could benefit the Mets roster."
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,715
I think it’s just that the Rays have a lot of pitching, they want Patino up, Archer and Andersen are almost back, it’s a 26 man roster thing but @VORP Speed can presumably explain better than me.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,637
Chicago, IL
I understand it would be a ridiculously SSS, but is it in the Sox best interest to be playing Duran every day to see if he can meet the moment? If he can, maybe less emphasis on trading for another bat and more on pitching ....If Duran can lengthen the line up, maybe they can get by cobbling together first base with what they already have.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I understand it would be a ridiculously SSS, but is it in the Sox best interest to be playing Duran every day to see if he can meet the moment? If he can, maybe less emphasis on trading for another bat and more on pitching ....If Duran can lengthen the line up, maybe they can get by cobbling together first base with what they already have.
There's no chance that Bloom is going to base his decisions on what to pursue in the trade market on Duran alone. First, there's no way they'd put that sort of pressure on his shoulders in his first two weeks in the majors. Second, if those kind of decisions were contingent on Duran, he'd have been brought up much sooner than he was because of what you point out: the ridiculously small sample size.

I imagine that it isn't and never will be a bat vs pitching decision for Bloom (or any competent GM). He'll make and take calls on any player he thinks can make the ball club better. And he'll pull the trigger on any deal where the return fits the roster and is worth the cost.
 

cantor44

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2020
1,637
Chicago, IL
There's no chance that Bloom is going to base his decisions on what to pursue in the trade market on Duran alone. First, there's no way they'd put that sort of pressure on his shoulders in his first two weeks in the majors. Second, if those kind of decisions were contingent on Duran, he'd have been brought up much sooner than he was because of what you point out: the ridiculously small sample size.

I imagine that it isn't and never will be a bat vs pitching decision for Bloom (or any competent GM). He'll make and take calls on any player he thinks can make the ball club better. And he'll pull the trigger on any deal where the return fits the roster and is worth the cost.
Yes, you're surely right about finding the right deal, and likely, too, about bringing him up sooner. Though you must also assume the FO has a priority list of needs to meet .... And not that you would announce to Duran, hey, if you play well that affects our decisions, but more: gather as much info as you can while you can.
 

VORP Speed

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,633
Ground Zero
I think it’s just that the Rays have a lot of pitching, they want Patino up, Archer and Andersen are almost back, it’s a 26 man roster thing but @VORP Speed can presumably explain better than me.
That’s pretty much it. Hill got lucky for a month but otherwise has been pretty mediocre. He also seems to have maybe been a sticky guy, with a big dip after the rule change. He’s fungible and they have a bunch of other pitching coming back. This Dyer guy seems like a Rays wet dream—utility player who can solidly cover corner OF, 1B and C gives you a ton of roster flexibility.
 

JBJ_HOF

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2014
538
Craig Mish reported earlier tonight the Marlins are trying hard to trade for their centerfielder of the future this week and are putting their stud pitching on the block

Tin foil hat: Marte and Max Meyer for Duran and you give Marte his 2 or 3 year deal.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,957
Saskatoon Canada
Okay help me here, sorry for lack of content. But 1b seems the easiest place to find a hitter. An average 1b would be such a plus. A guy that is even an average hitter at 1b would be a massive upgrade. Is it hard to find that type of player?
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,719
I’d love both. Marte’s a stud worthy of a 2-3 extension, and Aguilar’s on a 1 cheap, 1 year deal. Jesus seems like such a fun dude, too. Those 2, plus a starter, is likely a pipe dream; but, man, a WS run wouldn’t be out of the question.
Marte's definitely a stud but I'm pretty happy with our outfield. I'd rather fill positions of need.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Okay help me here, sorry for lack of content. But 1b seems the easiest place to find a hitter. An average 1b would be such a plus. A guy that is even an average hitter at 1b would be a massive upgrade. Is it hard to find that type of player?
I think it's a combination of price (in terms of prospects and luxury tax implications), actual upgrade, and the Sox' plans for Duran, Arroyo, Marwin, and Dalbec rest of season. Still, there are three 1B I've heard bandied about over the past few weeks, any of which would be a significant upgrade:

1) Jesus Aguilar, Marlins (Arb3 in '22, FA in '23): Given the extra year of team control acquisition cost could be steep. Defensive liability per the metrics but his bat is no joke: .263/.325/.467 with 17 HR through 94 games, has a 35 HR season under his belt in '18 with the Brew Crew.

2) CJ Cron, Rockies (on a 1 year, $1M deal): A rare bright spot on a dreadful Rockies team, and a solid fit price-wise both to pay and acquire, with the aforementioned no good Rockies in full fire sale mode. Like Aguilar a bad defensive 1B with a good stick: .246/.352/.472 with 16 HR. Hits LHP well (121 career wRC+) and mediocre against RHP (106 career wRC+), he's a "boring veteran 1B" out of central casting.

3) Jonathan Schoop, Tigers (on a 1 year, $4.5M deal): The weirdest of the three, I think. Another all bat 1B (who most of us remember as a power hitting 2B with Baltimore), much to just about everyone's surprise Schoop's been one of the best hitters in MLB for the past 2 months. While his full season line is almost identical to Cron & Aguilar's (.287/.327/.473 with 17 HR), that masks that after starting the season terribly since May 27th Schoop has hit .342 (!) with 14 HR (!) in just 48 games -- in other words, he's been on a 50 HR pace for almost two months.