Is that The Grin Reaper?That is ridiculous. Take a break from SoSH.
Is that The Grin Reaper?That is ridiculous. Take a break from SoSH.
First and foremost, 3-point defense.The shots didn't fall, they didn't get calls on the road, and were still quite close to pulling off the game. They're 13-5 and are making hustle plays all over the floor. What is it that you're not seeing?
There’s also the whole thing where they’re playing without their second-best player, with a team that’s built to need that top-end depth. I feel like Boston gets held to a higher standard than other teams in this regard.Over the past seven games, Boston is 3-4 with all four losses coming on the road.
That said, the combination of injuries, teams adjusting to Boston's actions and what appears to be regression to the mean by the Celtics as well as other teams are driving this fall off. On Friday 11/15, Boston was 10-1 and had the second best differential to the Lakers at +8.7. Since then, they have fallen to fifth as their differential has dropped to +6.7. Fast starters like Phoenix and Utah have also regressed but while the former team was probably playing at an unsustainable clip, teams like the Jazz and Celtics have only fallen off modestly. They probably aren't a +9 point differential team long-term but I will be surprised if they aren't a +5-6 or even better over the course of the season (they were +4.2 last season).
SSS applies in this analysis but if you think this is their rough production level - and I am not sure at all - they should win ~ 38 more games. That would put them at 51 wins which feels like an attainable target given what we've seen thus far. As always, its still fairly early and things can change.
Apologies for not being clearer:There’s also the whole thing where they’re playing without their second-best player, with a team that’s built to need that top-end depth. I feel like Boston gets held to a higher standard than other teams in this regard.
They definitely miss Hayward though its up for debate who the second best player is. For their regulars (+30 mpg) PIPM has Tatum as their best player followed by Kemba, Jaylen, Hayward and then Smart - and Gordon obviously has a much smaller sample size.That said, the combination of injuries, teams adjusting to Boston's actions and what appears to be regression to the mean by the Celtics as well as other teams are driving this fall off.
Abby said he bumped knees but was available to return.BTW, did Theis get hurt today or did Brad just like the matchups with RW and EK better? I was surprised he played so little.
Doesn't that happen to everybody more or less often? Seems like Kanter looks like that 90% of the time. Judging by his defensive numbers I'd guess it happens less often to Theis than either RW or Kanter.I don't think Brad was all that pleased with Theis today.
For those who can't view the tweet:
"Why does Theis get yanked so soon? Watch him on this get stuck in no man's land. Doesn't impact Dinwiddie's shot at all, doesn't trap, isn't in position to rebound."
Kanter is getting torched on switches which shouldn't be news to anyone. What is interesting is that he is the most productive (i.e. his scoring and rebounding are a net positive vs his poor defense) with certain line-ups. In short, the Celtics do best Kanter is on the floor with Smart, Tatum, Williams and Wanamaker, his next best lineup is with the starters in Walker, Smart, Brown and Tatum and finally the three guard line-up of Walker, Wanamaker, Smart and Brown.Doesn't that happen to everybody more or less often? Seems like Kanter looks like that 90% of the time. Judging by his defensive numbers I'd guess it happens less often to Theis than either RW or Kanter.
Per is a box score amalgam that doesn't measure defense much at all, but I'm guessing you know that. Good rebounders and efficient scorers look very good in it, which are Kanter's strengths.I don't know who still follows PER here or how people define "efficient" but any stat that has Enes Kanter as the best Celtics player or ranks him above other Boston regulars is likely very flawed.
Depending on how you view certain analytics or how much weight you place on smaller sample sizes, Tatum or Walker are the Celtics most efficient players.
To be clear, I don't really follow PER at all which is why I threw that out there in regards to player efficiency. When people cite efficiency data, its good to see what stats they are referring to given the flaws you mentioned. I also prefer not to draw too many conclusions from data for players who have played fewer than half their teams games or are used in specific situations but others clearly see that differently.Per is a box score amalgam that doesn't measure defense much at all, but I'm guessing you know that. Good rebounders and efficient scorers look very good in it, which are Kanter's strengths.
Back to the Centers. Good piece in the BSJ on poor defensive play by all of them:
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2019/11/29/predictable-flaw-re-emerges-celtics-loss-nets/
Tantalizing offensive play from RW though, the lefty hook and mid range jumper both looked sweet. If only he can figure out the defensive rotations.
Theis obviously isn't the 4th best defensive player in the NBA but's he's been solid. Blaming him (as Boston Sports Journal did) today after watching the Jay's trail their men numerous times over the last few games is comical. Our biggest defensive deficiency has been on the perimeter recently. Little on-ball pressure while going under most picksPer is a box score amalgam that doesn't measure defense much at all, but I'm guessing you know that. Good rebounders and efficient scorers look very good in it, which are Kanter's strengths.
Back to the Centers. Good piece in the BSJ on poor defensive play by all of them:
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2019/11/29/predictable-flaw-re-emerges-celtics-loss-nets/
Tantalizing offensive play from RW though, the lefty hook and mid range jumper both looked sweet. If only he can figure out the defensive rotations.
OK, I see where you’re coming from. I guess I was more getting at the fact that because the Celtics, as currently constructed, don’t have a superstar, missing one of their big 4 has a bigger impact than, say, Milwaukee missing Middleton, since Boston has no one near Giannis’ level.Apologies for not being clearer:
They definitely miss Hayward though its up for debate who the second best player is. For their regulars (+30 mpg) PIPM has Tatum as their best player followed by Kemba, Jaylen, Hayward and then Smart - and Gordon obviously has a much smaller sample size.
Agreed. If Danny makes a move this year, it has to be for a big. Noel has been playing some solid ball this year and is cheap.After a blazing-hot start, the Celtics are pretty much where I optimistically hoped they would be. Not one of the league's elite (looks like Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) but right there in the second tier. Aside from Hayward's recurring freak injuries, I am probably most concerned about the health of their bigs. They just don't have depth there and Kanter's lack of agility just kills them defensively.
Very true. My guilty bias is always rooting for the homegrown/drafted prospect or the overlooked, lunch pail, role-player. This team is chock-full of both.the entire roster is meeting or exceeding expectations. Last year the opposite was true. Makes for a more promising future and a more pleasant fan experience...
Not quite sold yet on the Bucks being in that tier. They did the same thing last year, blitzing the league in terms of regular season +/-, and then had some postseason issues. Obviously the Raptors were able to get them, and the Celtics had a strong approach before whatever happened in Kyrie’s head happened.After a blazing-hot start, the Celtics are pretty much where I optimistically hoped they would be. Not one of the league's elite (looks like Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) but right there in the second tier. Aside from Hayward's recurring freak injuries, I am probably most concerned about the health of their bigs. They just don't have depth there and Kanter's lack of agility just kills them defensively.
I agree with all of this, especially the Wanamaker ending.Very true. My guilty bias is always rooting for the homegrown/drafted prospect or the overlooked, lunch pail, role-player. This team is chock-full of both.
I'd say, Grant and Edwards, while being rookies, have been the most disappointing on the roster thus far. BUT they hold a ton of potential. At some point, it will start clicking for them and they will find their roles, just need to swallow the medicine and give them PT/development minutes. Nothing would make me happier than to see Waters and even Tacko eventually add value to this team by seasons end.
Brad Wanamaker, has probably been the biggest upside surprise. Coming in cold off the bench and impacting the game is an overlooked skill. His shooting and ability to get to the rim in transition have exceeded expectations. If nothing else the Hayward injury has given him valuable minutes to flaunt those skills. His advanced metrics, for a PG, have been good for the limited minutes he has played for 2 seasons. In 18 games this season, he's only had 1 bad game, he's shown incredible consistency. More Wanamaker, please.
I'm still not convinced they aren't in the top tier or at least tier 1a. I still think they have a legitimate chance to come out of the East, especially if Danny can make a move for a big. They've gone 3-4 since starting out 10-1 but that has all been without Hayward and most of the losses have been by small margins. I think this team is probably 15-3 if Hayward doesn't get injured. They were playing incredible ball right before he went down.After a blazing-hot start, the Celtics are pretty much where I optimistically hoped they would be. Not one of the league's elite (looks like Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) but right there in the second tier. Aside from Hayward's recurring freak injuries, I am probably most concerned about the health of their bigs. They just don't have depth there and Kanter's lack of agility just kills them defensively.
As said before by myself and others, Grant and Carsten need to spend most of the winter up in Maine chucking three's to raise their comfort level.... Grant and Edwards, while being rookies, have been the most disappointing on the roster thus far. BUT they hold a ton of potential. At some point, it will start clicking for them and they will find their roles, just need to swallow the medicine and give them PT/development minutes.
Think it’s very likely the best approach against Milwaukee. Smart has shown he can play Giannis (because of the lack of a jumper), and if MIL is sending Lopez into the post, you’re already ahead.As we see the Celtics using Smart on bigs more often, I can't help but think that it's in preparation of the team playing its five best players at the same time in crunch time -- Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Kemba, and Smart. Can that line up close out playoff games? Will it be exploited by bigger teams, or will it exploit bigger, slower teams.
Unless Danny acquires a competent big, or one of the bigs on this team emerges, that's how this season will play out.
At this point in time, Grant, Edwards, and Semi are the weak links in the rotation on this team. Of course they occasionally do some good things, but they don't consistently contribute enough in terms of their overall game. I admit I probably had much too lofty expectations for GW - thinking he would fill some of the void from MaMo. While he does some little things well and plays good defense in some situations (picking up fouls in others) he hasn't been able to put the ball in the bucket. Edwards on the other hand, does little else besides put the ball in the bucket, and he's been pretty awful at that. Semi is Semi. We keep thinking he'll get better on offense, and he keeps not.I'd say, Grant and Edwards, while being rookies, have been the most disappointing on the roster thus far. BUT they hold a ton of potential.
a dose of Maine could help with confidence. After Dec.12 Philly game the Celtics have 6 days off. Brad should send Grant, VP, & Carsen to Maine for 2 games (Dec 13th and 15th) to get some reps.As said before by myself and others, Grant and Carsten need to spend most of the winter up in Maine chucking three's to raise their comfort level.
agree. Danny's after Dec 15th move. add cheap, depth @ the 5... Unless anything obvious falls on his lapAgreed. If Danny makes a move this year, it has to be for a big. Noel has been playing some solid ball this year and is cheap.
But you said it was like last year's Celtics. Last year's Celtics were 7th in 3-point defense.First and foremost, 3-point defense.
Does the change from "hot start" to "second tier" possibly coincide with an injury to one of their better players?After a blazing-hot start, the Celtics are pretty much where I optimistically hoped they would be. Not one of the league's elite (looks like Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) but right there in the second tier.
If you want to be technical...But you said it was like last year's Celtics. Last year's Celtics were 7th in 3-point defense.
Exactly. A bit of ball luck too, but losing GH was subtraction by subtraction. Throw in a west coast trip also.Does the change from "hot start" to "second tier" possibly coincide with an injury to one of their better players?
Except my argument is it's not actually regression, it's just losing a good player. What if when Hayward comes back they play like a 60-win team again?Exactly. A bit of ball luck too, but losing GH was subtraction by subtraction. Throw in a west coast trip also.
Nobody thought that this was a 60 win team, which was their pace for quite a while. Regression was inevitable.
I agree with you that the biggest factor is Hayward. I also think that a west coast swing and some ball luck happened.Except my argument is it's not actually regression, it's just losing a good player. What if when Hayward comes back they play like a 60-win team again?
I'd say a couple fewer wins, but conference finals sounds about right.It seems there’s a lot of signaling and counter-signaling in this recent discussion re who’s a homer and who’s a sober-minded observer.
It might be interesting to just post what our predictions are for wins and postseason outcome for the Celtics, now that we’ve seen 18 games.
I’ll go first:
56 wins and lose in the conference finals.
Ask me around mid-January, after Gordo is back and hopefully his pre-hand-injury-self.I'd say a couple fewer wins, but conference finals sounds about right.
I'm a big of fan of Holmes, but I'm not sure why the Kings would let him go on the cheap.agree. Danny's after Dec 15th move. add cheap, depth @ the 5... Unless anything obvious falls on his lap
BIGs get injured. Adding depth there seems like a good idea. lovegtm and myself have been pumping this for a while, not much pushback from the board. I'd hate to depend on Kanter to play more than 15-20mpg, like Brad's rotating 5 concept (Kerr has been doing it for years)
agree on Noel, good/cheap/defense-first option. May be good on the switch on the perimeter and help the C's double and play fast. the downside, adds zero bulk
Other reasonable 5s that could possibly be available:
-Richaun Holmes for the bulk and exp practicing w/ Embiid knowledge.
-Looney, may be costly since he has a cheap 3yr deal
-Damian Jones
-Jacob Poeltl, bulk, young active has experience
If the Knicks get itchy about making a move and put Mitchell Robinson on the block, offer them TL/Langford/late 1st and see if that flies.
Why would you pay two firsts for a largely lateral swap? Especially as both players are on the same financial timeline and the odds of Boston paying market rate to keep either are next to nil? They aren’t firesaling Langford for a two and a half year deal.If the Knicks get itchy about making a move and put Mitchell Robinson on the block, offer them TL/Langford/late 1st and see if that flies.
I like MR better, don't see it as a lateral move. I imagine he'd be better in Brad's system than playing alongside MaMo for the Knicks.Why would you pay two firsts for a largely lateral swap? Especially as both players are on the same financial timeline and the odds of Boston paying market rate to keep either are next to nil? They aren’t firesaling Langford for a two and a half year deal.