2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

amarshal2

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It seems there’s a lot of signaling and counter-signaling in this recent discussion re who’s a homer and who’s a sober-minded observer.

It might be interesting to just post what our predictions are for wins and postseason outcome for the Celtics, now that we’ve seen 18 games.

I’ll go first:
56 wins and lose in the conference finals.
Today, I think they have as good of a chance as anybody to come out of the East. Predicting which of the top 4 teams it’ll be seems like a fools errand. (Not a Heat believe yet.) They all are in the ~25% range. Of course that means I’m giving them all a ~50% chance of losing to each other in the second round.
 

lovegtm

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It’s that Boston just doesn’t value the C spot the same way that other teams do. Horford was signed not because he was a C but because he was a veteran all star known to be a close friend of the prize free agent of that summer. Had he been a PG with those qualifications they still would have signed him and shipped Lil’ Zeke out of town the next day.

Aside from that they pretty obviously prefer to fill the C spot with roleplayers on the cheap. And neither Williams nor Robinson will be cheap in three years (and neither be worth depleting the wing depth they prize so highly). Boston’s far more likely to draft their long term C this June than trade for one (unless there’s someone out there on a long term taxpayer MLE deal).
I agree with everything here, except that if Williams is good enough to be getting Sabonis-type money after his 3rd year, I think the Celtics pay it. The optimistic version of him fits well with what they want to do defensively, his offensive upside is intriguing, and centers seem to be easier to extend at lower prices since no one wants to be the next Nerlens.
 

benhogan

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It’s that Boston just doesn’t value the C spot the same way that other teams do. Horford was signed not because he was a C but because he was a veteran all star known to be a close friend of the prize free agent of that summer. Had he been a PG with those qualifications they still would have signed him and shipped Lil’ Zeke out of town the next day.

Aside from that they pretty obviously prefer to fill the C spot with roleplayers on the cheap. And neither Williams nor Robinson will be cheap in three years (and neither be worth depleting the wing depth they prize so highly). Boston’s far more likely to draft their long term C this June than trade for one (unless there’s someone out there on a long term taxpayer MLE deal).
sure I'm on board with cheap, veteran Centers. My list pretty much is that

IMO Robinson further along then TL. Langford is a bridge too far, agreed. Just trying to stir up debate/thoughts on MR
 

benhogan

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I agree with everything here, except that if Williams is good enough to be getting Sabonis-type money after his 3rd year, I think the Celtics pay it. The optimistic version of him fits well with what they want to do defensively, his offensive upside is intriguing, and centers seem to be easier to extend at lower prices since no one wants to be the next Nerlens.
it seems like ~ $5MM/yr is the going price for veteran, rotational Centers. I'd be fine staying with 3 of those and some rookie contract guys on the roster. Its all about wings/ball handlers

I need to see more of TL to form an opinion, he seems skittish with the ball in his hands
 
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benhogan

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It seems there’s a lot of signaling and counter-signaling in this recent discussion re who’s a homer and who’s a sober-minded observer.

It might be interesting to just post what our predictions are for wins and postseason outcome for the Celtics, now that we’ve seen 18 games.

I’ll go first:
56 wins and lose in the conference finals.
57 wins. EC Champs.

This team seems very committed every game. Don't see them losing many regular-season games to non-playoff teams (like last season)

after sitting on his hands the last 2 trade deadlines. Danny makes a bigger move then my on the edges/depth suggestions
 

mcpickl

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agree. Danny's after Dec 15th move. add cheap, depth @ the 5... Unless anything obvious falls on his lap

BIGs get injured. Adding depth there seems like a good idea. lovegtm and myself have been pumping this for a while, not much pushback from the board. I'd hate to depend on Kanter to play more than 15-20mpg, like Brad's rotating 5 concept (Kerr has been doing it for years)

agree on Noel, good/cheap/defense-first option. May be good on the switch on the perimeter and help the C's double and play fast. the downside, adds zero bulk

Other reasonable 5s that could possibly be available:
-Richaun Holmes for the bulk and exp practicing w/ Embiid knowledge.
-Looney, may be costly since he has a cheap 3yr deal
-Damian Jones
-Jacob Poeltl, bulk, young active has experience

If the Knicks get itchy about making a move and put Mitchell Robinson on the block, offer them TL/Langford/late 1st and see if that flies. check on the cost
It's tough trying to find good fits for a big that would make sense for Boston since they can't trade for anyone expensive without trading one of their core guys, and you'd expect teams with playoff aspirations would be hanging on to anyone you'd want. Then I'd cross off younger guys with term on their contracts that the terrible teams wouldn't trade unless the Celtics heavily overpaid(I'd knock Looney off my list here). And if I'm Ainge, I'm looking for a low usage big who is a good defender/rebounder, preferably one nimble enough to play in small ball lineups as your 5.

I started the season with only two guys that fit that criteria reasonably, Al Farouq Aminu and Kelly Olynyk. I'd remove Olynyk now since he(and Miani) are playing well and they probably need him.

And I've added John Henson to make it a 2 person list again. I don't thnk Noel works since he'd have to give up his Bird rights to be traded. He's already dusted so much money in his career I'd think he'd try to hold on to them even if it doesn't pay off next summer. Also not sure if coming home would be best for him.

It sucks the Celtics didn't know Charlotte was going to lose their minds on the Rozier contract earlier. The Celtics easily could've stayed over the cap and kept Baynes instead of signing Kanter by restructuring that sign and trade with Kemba/Rozier. They still would've had a chunk of their midlevel exception to use on possible buyout guys in that case as well.
 

DJnVa

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I agree with you that the biggest factor is Hayward. I also think that a west coast swing and some ball luck happened.

When GH went out, they were 7-1. If you think that this is a 72 win team with GH, I guess that we have to agree to disagree.
You literally quoted me saying 60 wins, not 72 wins.
 

benhogan

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It sucks the Celtics didn't know Charlotte was going to lose their minds on the Rozier contract earlier. The Celtics easily could've stayed over the cap and kept Baynes instead of signing Kanter by restructuring that sign and trade with Kemba/Rozier. They still would've had a chunk of their midlevel exception to use on possible buyout guys in that case as well.
It's a damn shame. Do you think the Celtics FO could have played this a little better?

A Baynes/Theis/TL combo would make them every bit as good as the Sixers/Bucks.

We're finally getting a chance to see Aron Baynes play 24mpg. I doubt PHX lets him sign elsewhere this summer. I was watching AB last night, all he does on offense is hunt down the ball handlers defender, wipes him out with a vicious screen and pop/roll. On defense, he sets the nail at the FT line and bodies anyone that enters the lane. 100% effort at all times.

At least we're getting to see Theis play 22mpg this season.
 
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nighthob

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It's a damn shame. Danny knew Kyrie was history early and AD wasn't coming. Guess they figured Horford was a lock coming back. Do you think the Celtics FO could have played this a little better?
Once the trade deadline passed their hands were pretty much tied. Danny basically admitted that he held on to the Unibrower/Irving dream too long. The way to have played it better was shipping Irving off to the Knicks for expiring deals and picks last February. A guy like PJ Washington would have looked really good right now.

EDIT: I suppose the real way to have played it better would have been to send Irving to the Knicks for Knox, their 2019 #1, and flotsam, and then sent Knox, the Kings pick, and Rozier to Charlotte for Walker. Then Horford would have joyfully re-upped to help Boston finally break through the ECF barrier that they stalled at in 2018 and 2019. ;)
 

Jimbodandy

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You literally quoted me saying 60 wins, not 72 wins.
This conversation sucks. We're talking past each other, and that's probably my fault, sorry.

They might be a 60 win team. They aren't a 70 win team, which was their pace when GH went down. So while GH is the key to the about-face, regression was due.

I don't think that they're a 60 win team either, because CBS will give the rookies and TL rope.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Over the past decade, there have been 14 60-win teams with no more than two per season in any given year. People can probably recite who these teams are from memory but when they do, they will likely realize that getting to 60 wins is incredibly hard in the NBA.

Just using differential as a rough guide, the only teams that managed 60 wins with a differential less than seven points are the '10-11 Spurs with 61 wins and a +6.4 and the '14-15 Hawks with a +6.2. I will share the data below the most teams who had 60 or more wins had differentials north of ~+8.

Also, during the past decade, there have been 10 teams that had a differential of greater than ~ 7 and three of them were ~8 or even ~9-handles and yet only two teams even won 59 games.

At present, the Celtics are sitting at a differential of 6.7 and that has been trending down as they play more games. Assuming that Hayward will return as scheduled and will continue where he left off, one would still have to be incredibly optimistic that the early success by the Celtics was real/sustainable rather than a function of small sample sizes as well as teams not yet adjusting to what Boston was doing. Its possible, of course, but I fall in the camp that their recent reversion is not just Hayward's absence but regression mixed in with recent opposing teams using early season data to counter this year's Boston tendencies.

As I posted upthread, the '19-20 C's feel like their resting differential is more like ~+5-6 and that should translate into a win total in the very low 50s. I want to be clear that this is not a prediction. Its more of a projection and its subject to changing conditions - I don't mind if others take issue with it but I have no interest in the gotcha-game that seems to rear its head here with regard to draft prospects, player projections or even win predictions. YRMV.


Year Team Wins Differential
09-10 Cleveland 61 8.4
10-11 Chicago 62 8.7
10-11 San Antonio 61 6.4
12-13 Miami 66 9.2
12-13 OKC 60 10.4
13-14 San Antonio 62 8.4
14-15 GS 67 12.1
14-15 Atl 60 6.2
15-16 GS 73 11.6
15-16 San Antonio 67 11.8
16-17 GS 67 12.8
16-17 San Antonio 61 7.7
17-18 Houston 65 9
18-19 Milwaukee 60 9.1
 
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DJnVa

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I'm doing higher level math ;) If they win at 60 win pace for the game GH plays, and at say 50 win pace in games without him, they'll finish up with around 55-57 or so wins.

So, mark me down for 57 and ECF.
 

JohnnyTheBone

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It's a damn shame. Do you think the Celtics FO could have played this a little better?

A Baynes/Theis/TL combo would make them every bit as good as the Sixers/Bucks.
The capologists among us can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Boston hadn't exercised the 3rd-year option on Guerschon Yabusele, ostensibly to maintain trade ballast, they'd have been able to keep Aron Baynes and still sign Kemba for max dollars. How's that for a swift kick in the ass?
 

nighthob

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The capologists among us can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Boston hadn't exercised the 3rd-year option on Guerschon Yabusele, ostensibly to maintain trade ballast, they'd have been able to keep Aron Baynes and still sign Kemba for max dollars. How's that for a swift kick in the ass?
The difference in salary for the two players in 2020 was more than $4 million. If the only difference were Guerschon’s salary they could have just paid someone $2 million to take his $1 million dollar deal.
 

mcpickl

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It's a damn shame. Do you think the Celtics FO could have played this a little better?

A Baynes/Theis/TL combo would make them every bit as good as the Sixers/Bucks.

We're finally getting a chance to see Aron Baynes play 24mpg. I doubt PHX lets him sign elsewhere this summer. I was watching AB last night, all he does on offense is hunt down the ball handlers defender, wipes him out with a vicious screen and pop/roll. On defense, he sets the nail at the FT line and bodies anyone that enters the lane. 100% effort at all times.

At least we're getting to see Theis play 22mpg this season.
I think one of two, maybe both, unforeseen things happened. Charlottes willingness to pay Rozier that much money and/or Horford leaving. If Charlotte/Rozier didn't agree on that deal, the Celtics needed to clear Baynes contract to make it work.Then, even if they had the knowledge Charlotte would sign and trade for Rozier, unless they also knew Horford was leaving they'd likely still move Baynes since Al would probably be playing most of his minutes at center again. They would've been overloaded with centers.

They would've had to make some salary cuts in a scenario where Horford stayed as well, since they would've been pushing over the hard cap.

I don't blame the Celtics front office for not seeing both of those things coming. It's just an unfortunate sequence of events. If the NBA held the draft after free agency, I think Baynes is still here. Since the order is reversed, I think they had to make sure they had the room to get Kemba in case they needed it.



The capologists among us can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Boston hadn't exercised the 3rd-year option on Guerschon Yabusele, ostensibly to maintain trade ballast, they'd have been able to keep Aron Baynes and still sign Kemba for max dollars. How's that for a swift kick in the ass?
They still would've been a bit short if they hadn't exercised Yabuseles option. Even if they traded away the first they moved in the Baynes deal a different way, they still would've been a million or so short. That assumes they wouldn't have signed Poirier(which I imagine they wouldn't have) and would've limited Carsen Edwards to a two year deal at the minimum. They would've had to trade away the Grant Williams pick, or take another Yabustashie with it instead. Or traded away Rob Williams for future considerations.I'm assuming no one would've taken Semi for free.
 

NomarsFool

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Phew. For awhile there that was looking like an 0 for 2 NY trip. Thankfully Tatum and Brown each had huge games. I feel like I'd like to see Brown getting more shots than he typically does.
 

Cellar-Door

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Fun with BBref season finder.

7 players have 18+ PPG and 7+ RPG while shooting at least 35% from 3...... three of the seven are on the Boston Celtics.
If you take away the RPG requirement you get 31 players, Celtics lead the way with 4 of the 31, Raptors have 3 of the 31, no other team has more than 2.
 

lovegtm

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The what-if
Phew. For awhile there that was looking like an 0 for 2 NY trip. Thankfully Tatum and Brown each had huge games. I feel like I'd like to see Brown getting more shots than he typically does.
They did a nice job down the stretch using him as the outlet for Kemba. He's a lot more dynamic in space than Tatum, and developing him in those mini 4-on-3 situations could pay really big dividends, since we're going to be seeing heavy Kemba traps for the next 3 years otherwise.
 

TripleOT

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Toronto has the type of on-ball defense (esp OG & FVV) the Celtics need to adopt. Until the Celts start working over picks and stay close to their man they'll continue to easily get beat on the perimeter.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPGnVgfGS9A
Toronto, which has most of its team back from last season, is number one in defensive FG percentage and three in three point percentage. Boston, with the majority of its team new to the Celtics, is fifth and ninth. Boston is fifth in causing TOs and first in steals. Boston gives up 12.2 threes per game, Toronto 12.6.. The Celtics should continue to gel on defense as they play more together.
 

Jimbodandy

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The what-if

They did a nice job down the stretch using him as the outlet for Kemba. He's a lot more dynamic in space than Tatum, and developing him in those mini 4-on-3 situations could pay really big dividends, since we're going to be seeing heavy Kemba traps for the next 3 years otherwise.
They got GW a nice bunny out of one of those Kemba traps. It was the most encouraging thing from the whole game for me. I think that both the Js have enough awareness now to help with that nonsense and nip it in the bud. We shall see.
 

benhogan

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Toronto, which has most of its team back from last season, is number one in defensive FG percentage and three in three point percentage. Boston, with the majority of its team new to the Celtics, is fifth and ninth. Boston is fifth in causing TOs and first in steals. Boston gives up 12.2 threes per game, Toronto 12.6.. The Celtics should continue to gel on defense as they play more together.
The defense really gets dynamic when Smart, Wanamaker, Brown and Edwards pick up the on-ball defense and go over the picks. They all have the lower, bulky body strength to punish screeners.
I'd like Kemba to also do it but don't want him getting to beat up on defense during the regular season.
 

DJnVa

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Smart sent home with illness, doubtful for tomorrow against Miami.

The Heat play tonight in Toronto so we may get some load management guys tomorrow from them, which will help.
 

NomarsFool

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So, who gets Smart's minutes? Opportunity for Green or Semi? Do we see more of GW and push JB down to the 2?

Theoretically, could be Carsen, but I feel like the Smart to Carsen defensive downgrade is epic. I understand anyone is a significant downgrade, but that one might be too much. He could launch all of Smart's threes, though,
 

chilidawg

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So, who gets Smart's minutes? Opportunity for Green or Semi? Do we see more of GW and push JB down to the 2?

Theoretically, could be Carsen, but I feel like the Smart to Carsen defensive downgrade is epic. I understand anyone is a significant downgrade, but that one might be too much. He could launch all of Smart's threes, though,
If you start Edwards then one of he or Kemba has to guard Butler, that would seem less than ideal. Better matchups if you start GW or Ojeleye and matchup Brown with Butler.
 

lovegtm

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So, who gets Smart's minutes? Opportunity for Green or Semi? Do we see more of GW and push JB down to the 2?

Theoretically, could be Carsen, but I feel like the Smart to Carsen defensive downgrade is epic. I understand anyone is a significant downgrade, but that one might be too much. He could launch all of Smart's threes, though,
Guessing we'll see a lot more Ojeleye and Grant. But also it's Brad, which means he'll probably use it as a chance to spread minutes around to a lot of guys and try different combos.
 

benhogan

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Guessing we'll see a lot more Ojeleye and Grant. But also it's Brad, which means he'll probably use it as a chance to spread minutes around to a lot of guys and try different combos.
He'll start Semi, but I'd rather see Grant. No chance Carsen starts, 2-4 is positionless. I'd say there is a better chance we see Waters called up to handle the ball, in lieu of Smarts absence.

Whoa. Miami hits a high % of 3s, better bring the perimeter defense

Herro, Dragic, Leonard, Olynyk, Robinson all above 40% from 3s

& Nunn at 38.2% with 5.8 3PA/gm

as a team Miami 3rd in the NBA at 38.9% (Toronto #1 at 40.2%)

and Celtics 24th in the NBA at 34.5%


https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/mia/table/game/sort/threePointPct/dir/desc
 
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benhogan

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Guessing we'll see a lot more Ojeleye and Grant. But also it's Brad, which means he'll probably use it as a chance to spread minutes around to a lot of guys and try different combos.
it really sucks that our #14 pick can't play, he's missing great opportunities for development with Hayward, Brown and now Smart missing time so far.
 

lovegtm

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it really sucks that our #14 pick can't play, he's missing great opportunities for development with Hayward, Brown and now Smart missing time so far.
I can’t wait for the part where the Celtics lose a few games without Hayward and Smart and everyone starts talking about how they're “coming back to earth.”
 

benhogan

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I can’t wait for the part where the Celtics lose a few games without Hayward and Smart and everyone starts talking about how they're “coming back to earth.”
I'm definitely in the camp of giving the kids extended run and making sure the Top5 are fully healthy. Sacrifice a few wins if need be. Roughly a quarter of the way in and Brad has effectively figured out how to use Enis, Wanamaker and matchup Theis/TL. He just needs to get one or more of the youngsters (expect Granite) to start having the game slow down for them.

Last years Celtics were 10-10 at this point and were a slow-burning tire fire.
 
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Saints Rest

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He'll start Semi, but I'd rather see Grant. No chance Carsen starts, 2-4 is positionless. I'd say there is a better chance we see Waters called up to handle the ball, in lieu of Smarts absence.

Whoa. Miami hits a high % of 3s, better bring the perimeter defense

Herro, Dragic, Leonard, Olynyk, Robinson all above 40% from 3s

& Nunn at 38.2% with 5.8 3PA/gm

as a team Miami 3rd in the NBA at 38.9% (Toronto #1 at 40.2%)

and Celtics 24th in the NBA at 34.5%


https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/mia/table/game/sort/threePointPct/dir/desc
Not the ideal team for a Semi’s brand of defense.
 

bsj

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Random Q...is December 28th some sort of special event? Jersey retirement or something? Only ask because I may be in town that weekend and was considering getting a single but i surprised at how much more the ticket prices were that game than others. Just the Saturday thing?
 
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DJnVa

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Random Q...is December 18th some sort of special event? Jersey retirement or something? Only ask because I may be in town that weekend and was considering getting a single but i surprised at how much more the ticket prices were that game than others. Just the Saturday thing?
December 18 is a Wednesday.
 

JCizzle

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It looks like that game is also at Dallas? They're home Dec 20, 22, 27, 28 around Christmas.
 

TripleOT

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With Miami in town, I find it incredible that Meyers Leonard just put up consecutive seasons of 50/40/80% shooting. He also has a 50/40/90% season on his resume. Of course, all of these seasons were in very short minutes per game. I wonder if Miami can keep him on the court. He's averaging 18,8 mpg, and shooting 60/54% on low volume, only 4.2 shots per game, with his 54.1% from three leading the league.

Pat Riley: "Let's get another Olynyk." Acquired to make room for the Butler FA signing, it will be interesting to see if Miami can make him into a solid rotation player in his contract year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Random Q...is December 18th some sort of special event? Jersey retirement or something? Only ask because I may be in town that weekend and was considering getting a single but i surprised at how much more the ticket prices were that game than others. Just the Saturday thing?
Maybe the price listed for the Dec 18th game includes the flight and hotel in Dallas.
 

DJnVa

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Perhaps it's just because it's the Raptors and a Saturday night. No special promotions that I can see.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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damit I meant 28th vs Toronto.

Fat fingers
They will probably come down some. I bought opening night (a Friday vs. the same Raptors) about a week before the game. The fees are horrendous, but the mark-up was not bad. That was $68/ticket for the upper level aisle, but with fees, that came to $90/ticket.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They will probably come down some. I bought opening night (a Friday vs. the same Raptors) about a week before the game. The fees are horrendous, but the mark-up was not bad. That was $68/ticket for the upper level aisle, but with fees, that came to $90/ticket.
I wouldn’t expect these prices to come down. It’s a Sat night during holiday week with many transplants back in town looking to catch a Celtics game. Speaking from personal experience......when I lived in NC all those years this would have been a standard go-to game for me when back home.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I wouldn’t expect these prices to come down. It’s a Sat night during holiday week with many transplants back in town looking to catch a Celtics game. Speaking from personal experience......when I lived in NC all those years this would have been a standard go-to game for me when back home.
I agree with this. There aren't many Saturday night home games during the year and the Raptors, even without Kawhi, should be a good game. Friday and Saturday night games are in high demand and usually a lot more expensive. Holiday week is even worse. I wanted to go to the comeback game against the Rockets two years ago and it was absolutely outrageous, and that was the Thursday after Christmas.
 

TripleOT

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Not the ideal team for a Semi’s brand of defense.
Semi with a plus 21 in 24 minutes. Semi played solid defense in the second quarter, when the Heat put up only 16 points.

Heat 14-38 from three. Their bench was 2-13. Butler with an unusual 6-10.

Boston made 16 threes in 41 heaves.