Over the past decade, there have been 14 60-win teams with no more than two per season in any given year. People can probably recite who these teams are from memory but when they do, they will likely realize that getting to 60 wins is incredibly hard in the NBA.
Just using differential as a rough guide, the only teams that managed 60 wins with a differential less than seven points are the '10-11 Spurs with 61 wins and a +6.4 and the '14-15 Hawks with a +6.2. I will share the data below the most teams who had 60 or more wins had differentials north of ~+8.
Also, during the past decade, there have been 10 teams that had a differential of greater than ~ 7 and three of them were ~8 or even ~9-handles and yet only two teams even won 59 games.
At present, the Celtics are sitting at a differential of 6.7 and that has been trending down as they play more games. Assuming that Hayward will return as scheduled and will continue where he left off, one would still have to be incredibly optimistic that the early success by the Celtics was real/sustainable rather than a function of small sample sizes as well as teams not yet adjusting to what Boston was doing. Its possible, of course, but I fall in the camp that their recent reversion is not just Hayward's absence but regression mixed in with recent opposing teams using early season data to counter this year's Boston tendencies.
As I posted upthread, the '19-20 C's feel like their resting differential is more like ~+5-6 and that should translate into a win total in the very low 50s. I want to be clear that this is not a prediction. Its more of a projection and its subject to changing conditions - I don't mind if others take issue with it but I have no interest in the gotcha-game that seems to rear its head here with regard to draft prospects, player projections or even win predictions. YRMV.
Year |
Team |
Wins |
Differential |
09-10 |
Cleveland |
61 |
8.4 |
10-11 |
Chicago |
62 |
8.7 |
10-11 |
San Antonio |
61 |
6.4 |
12-13 |
Miami |
66 |
9.2 |
12-13 |
OKC |
60 |
10.4 |
13-14 |
San Antonio |
62 |
8.4 |
14-15 |
GS |
67 |
12.1 |
14-15 |
Atl |
60 |
6.2 |
15-16 |
GS |
73 |
11.6 |
15-16 |
San Antonio |
67 |
11.8 |
16-17 |
GS |
67 |
12.8 |
16-17 |
San Antonio |
61 |
7.7 |
17-18 |
Houston |
65 |
9 |
18-19 |
Milwaukee |
60 |
9.1 |