2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Well, for all the talk of the new Celtics, I feel like they have just given us a week of being last year's team.
The shots didn't fall, they didn't get calls on the road, and were still quite close to pulling off the game. They're 13-5 and are making hustle plays all over the floor. What is it that you're not seeing?
Over the past seven games, Boston is 3-4 with all four losses coming on the road.
That said, the combination of injuries, teams adjusting to Boston's actions and what appears to be regression to the mean by the Celtics as well as other teams are driving this fall off. On Friday 11/15, Boston was 10-1 and had the second best differential to the Lakers at +8.7. Since then, they have fallen to fifth as their differential has dropped to +6.7. Fast starters like Phoenix and Utah have also regressed but while the former team was probably playing at an unsustainable clip, teams like the Jazz and Celtics have only fallen off modestly. They probably aren't a +9 point differential team long-term but I will be surprised if they aren't a +5-6 or even better over the course of the season (they were +4.2 last season).
SSS applies in this analysis but if you think this is their rough production level - and I am not sure at all - they should win ~ 38 more games. That would put them at 51 wins which feels like an attainable target given what we've seen thus far. As always, its still fairly early and things can change.
That said, the combination of injuries, teams adjusting to Boston's actions and what appears to be regression to the mean by the Celtics as well as other teams are driving this fall off. On Friday 11/15, Boston was 10-1 and had the second best differential to the Lakers at +8.7. Since then, they have fallen to fifth as their differential has dropped to +6.7. Fast starters like Phoenix and Utah have also regressed but while the former team was probably playing at an unsustainable clip, teams like the Jazz and Celtics have only fallen off modestly. They probably aren't a +9 point differential team long-term but I will be surprised if they aren't a +5-6 or even better over the course of the season (they were +4.2 last season).
SSS applies in this analysis but if you think this is their rough production level - and I am not sure at all - they should win ~ 38 more games. That would put them at 51 wins which feels like an attainable target given what we've seen thus far. As always, its still fairly early and things can change.
There’s also the whole thing where they’re playing without their second-best player, with a team that’s built to need that top-end depth. I feel like Boston gets held to a higher standard than other teams in this regard.
Apologies for not being clearer:
They definitely miss Hayward though its up for debate who the second best player is. For their regulars (+30 mpg) PIPM has Tatum as their best player followed by Kemba, Jaylen, Hayward and then Smart - and Gordon obviously has a much smaller sample size.
Hayward creates so much more length and versatility on defense as they get into the bench. I like Brad Wannamaker in his depth point guard role but having him as opposed to Smart plugging first guard off of the bench has a noticable impact on the defense.
I liked the Kanter sigining because I thought he would be able to extend his range to three - but for some reason (despite summer vids) he doesn't look like a threat from there. This group needs someone to take that shot to open up the lane.
I liked the Kanter sigining because I thought he would be able to extend his range to three - but for some reason (despite summer vids) he doesn't look like a threat from there. This group needs someone to take that shot to open up the lane.
Only 8 shots by Jaylen. Not sure exactly what was going on there. It seems to me like when the Celtics play good defense, they get a lot of transition baskets and Jaylen has a big game. I don't know if the Celtics aren't very good at getting JB the ball in the half-court, or JB isn't good at scoring in the half-court (although he looks fine by my eyes) - but that seems to be an issue.
The overall rebounding numbers were even, but I feel like Celtics rarely come up with the contested rebounds. That would be an interesting stat, if it exists. It's one thing to pull down the rebound when there are only green shirts around, but I feel like their lack of size means that they don't win those battles. I hate watching them play great defense, have the other team miss the shot, and the other team gets the offensive rebound.
The 3 point defense issue is tough. The Celtics play very aggressive with the doubles and if a team can move the ball around and hit their shots from deep - they will get beat.
The overall rebounding numbers were even, but I feel like Celtics rarely come up with the contested rebounds. That would be an interesting stat, if it exists. It's one thing to pull down the rebound when there are only green shirts around, but I feel like their lack of size means that they don't win those battles. I hate watching them play great defense, have the other team miss the shot, and the other team gets the offensive rebound.
The 3 point defense issue is tough. The Celtics play very aggressive with the doubles and if a team can move the ball around and hit their shots from deep - they will get beat.
BTW, did Theis get hurt today or did Brad just like the matchups with RW and EK better? I was surprised he played so little.
I don't think Brad was all that pleased with Theis today.
For those who can't view the tweet:
"Why does Theis get yanked so soon? Watch him on this get stuck in no man's land. Doesn't impact Dinwiddie's shot at all, doesn't trap, isn't in position to rebound."
For those who can't view the tweet:
"Why does Theis get yanked so soon? Watch him on this get stuck in no man's land. Doesn't impact Dinwiddie's shot at all, doesn't trap, isn't in position to rebound."
Doesn't that happen to everybody more or less often? Seems like Kanter looks like that 90% of the time. Judging by his defensive numbers I'd guess it happens less often to Theis than either RW or Kanter.
Kanter is getting torched on switches which shouldn't be news to anyone. What is interesting is that he is the most productive (i.e. his scoring and rebounding are a net positive vs his poor defense) with certain line-ups. In short, the Celtics do best Kanter is on the floor with Smart, Tatum, Williams and Wanamaker, his next best lineup is with the starters in Walker, Smart, Brown and Tatum and finally the three guard line-up of Walker, Wanamaker, Smart and Brown.
If you see Kanter on the floor with Edwards, Semi and Wanamaker, Stevens is either desperate, has lost his mind or he just doesn't give a damn. With those guys plus Tatum on the floor, the Celtics are a -13.1!
Kanter is useful in spots but he requires the Celtics to give very careful consideration to whom they surround him with at any time. This is true of many NBA rotation players but he presents an interesting case in that, at present, the bigs without a deep shot who get the most run tend to be defensive specialists rather than offensive players.
This is a lot different than last season, no comparison.
22% of the season complete, here's a recap:
1. 7-0 at home
2. 6-5 on the road (losses to teams with a combined 56-33 record). Four of the losses were by 1-2 possessions.
3. they've been without their most efficient player since Game 8, but Utah Gordon is back from the ankle injury
4. working w/ 7 rookies on the 17 man roster - all have played except Romeo
5. Smart, Kanter, Wanamaker is a veteran/efficient bench, others like TL, Semi, Grant, CE are developing
6. JB/JT leaping big time. JB's contract looks like great value now
7. Kemba is everything and more
8. Theis is an effective lunch pail starter - ranked 4th in defensive efficiency in the NBA
9. CBS playing many different rotations, figuring out combinations
This feels like a mid-50s win team. The Celtics could easily add at the trade deadline, they have the assets to make a run for the Finals this season.
Championship aspirations for 2021 and beyond are more real now then this Summer, and that's all we can ask for after the mass exodus.
22% of the season complete, here's a recap:
1. 7-0 at home
2. 6-5 on the road (losses to teams with a combined 56-33 record). Four of the losses were by 1-2 possessions.
3. they've been without their most efficient player since Game 8, but Utah Gordon is back from the ankle injury
4. working w/ 7 rookies on the 17 man roster - all have played except Romeo
5. Smart, Kanter, Wanamaker is a veteran/efficient bench, others like TL, Semi, Grant, CE are developing
6. JB/JT leaping big time. JB's contract looks like great value now
7. Kemba is everything and more
8. Theis is an effective lunch pail starter - ranked 4th in defensive efficiency in the NBA
9. CBS playing many different rotations, figuring out combinations
This feels like a mid-50s win team. The Celtics could easily add at the trade deadline, they have the assets to make a run for the Finals this season.
Championship aspirations for 2021 and beyond are more real now then this Summer, and that's all we can ask for after the mass exodus.
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I don't know who still follows PER here or how people define "efficient" but any stat that has Enes Kanter as the best Celtics player or ranks him above other Boston regulars is likely very flawed.
Depending on how you view certain analytics or how much weight you place on smaller sample sizes, Tatum or Walker are the Celtics most efficient players.
Depending on how you view certain analytics or how much weight you place on smaller sample sizes, Tatum or Walker are the Celtics most efficient players.
Per is a box score amalgam that doesn't measure defense much at all, but I'm guessing you know that. Good rebounders and efficient scorers look very good in it, which are Kanter's strengths.
Back to the Centers. Good piece in the BSJ on poor defensive play by all of them:
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2019/11/29/predictable-flaw-re-emerges-celtics-loss-nets/
Tantalizing offensive play from RW though, the lefty hook and mid range jumper both looked sweet. If only he can figure out the defensive rotations.
To be clear, I don't really follow PER at all which is why I threw that out there in regards to player efficiency. When people cite efficiency data, its good to see what stats they are referring to given the flaws you mentioned. I also prefer not to draw too many conclusions from data for players who have played fewer than half their teams games or are used in specific situations but others clearly see that differently.
Thanks for the BSJ link btw
Theis obviously isn't the 4th best defensive player in the NBA but's he's been solid. Blaming him (as Boston Sports Journal did) today after watching the Jay's trail their men numerous times over the last few games is comical. Our biggest defensive deficiency has been on the perimeter recently. Little on-ball pressure while going under most picks
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OK, I see where you’re coming from. I guess I was more getting at the fact that because the Celtics, as currently constructed, don’t have a superstar, missing one of their big 4 has a bigger impact than, say, Milwaukee missing Middleton, since Boston has no one near Giannis’ level.
Anyway, we’re getting to the point in the season where we know a decent amount about the rough quality of teams. The Celtics seem pretty clearly in the top tier but a notch below the very top, and they’ll need some combination of improved offensive identity, player development, and maybe a trade to get them there.
When Hayward returns, it seems that Smart will shift to the bench, the rotation of centers (Theis, Rob, Kanter, and going small) will continue, and Smart and Wanamaker will be the 2 regular rotation non-bigs, with the other bench guys (Grant, Ojeleye, Edwards) getting situational usage.
After a blazing-hot start, the Celtics are pretty much where I optimistically hoped they would be. Not one of the league's elite (looks like Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers) but right there in the second tier. Aside from Hayward's recurring freak injuries, I am probably most concerned about the health of their bigs. They just don't have depth there and Kanter's lack of agility just kills them defensively.
Agreed. If Danny makes a move this year, it has to be for a big. Noel has been playing some solid ball this year and is cheap.
Very true. My guilty bias is always rooting for the homegrown/drafted prospect or the overlooked, lunch pail, role-player. This team is chock-full of both.
I'd say, Grant and Edwards, while being rookies, have been the most disappointing on the roster thus far. BUT they hold a ton of potential. At some point, it will start clicking for them and they will find their roles, just need to swallow the medicine and give them PT/development minutes. Nothing would make me happier than to see Waters and even Tacko eventually add value to this team by seasons end.
Brad Wanamaker, has probably been the biggest upside surprise. Coming in cold off the bench and impacting the game is an overlooked skill. His shooting and ability to get to the rim in transition have exceeded expectations. If nothing else the Hayward injury has given him valuable minutes to flaunt those skills. His advanced metrics, for a PG, have been good for the limited minutes he has played for 2 seasons. In 18 games this season, he's only had 1 bad game, he's shown incredible consistency. More Wanamaker, please.
Not quite sold yet on the Bucks being in that tier. They did the same thing last year, blitzing the league in terms of regular season +/-, and then had some postseason issues. Obviously the Raptors were able to get them, and the Celtics had a strong approach before whatever happened in Kyrie’s head happened.
I agree with all of this, especially the Wanamaker ending.
To be fair to Grant and Carsen, it's kind of our own faults. Low firsts and high seconds don't frequently blow the world away as rookies, but their excellent summer/preseason ball set the bar high.
I'm still not convinced they aren't in the top tier or at least tier 1a. I still think they have a legitimate chance to come out of the East, especially if Danny can make a move for a big. They've gone 3-4 since starting out 10-1 but that has all been without Hayward and most of the losses have been by small margins. I think this team is probably 15-3 if Hayward doesn't get injured. They were playing incredible ball right before he went down.
As we see the Celtics using Smart on bigs more often, I can't help but think that it's in preparation of the team playing its five best players at the same time in crunch time -- Brown, Tatum, Hayward, Kemba, and Smart. Can that line up close out playoff games? Will it be exploited by bigger teams, or will it exploit bigger, slower teams.
Unless Danny acquires a competent big, or one of the bigs on this team emerges, that's how this season will play out.
Unless Danny acquires a competent big, or one of the bigs on this team emerges, that's how this season will play out.
As said before by myself and others, Grant and Carsten need to spend most of the winter up in Maine chucking three's to raise their comfort level.
Think it’s very likely the best approach against Milwaukee. Smart has shown he can play Giannis (because of the lack of a jumper), and if MIL is sending Lopez into the post, you’re already ahead.
You can go small-ish against Toronto without Gasol beating it up.
I haven’t watched Miami enough to know how that would work there. Need to play a big against Indy and Philly imo.
Happy Birthday, Grant Williams. You are now of drinking age, and if you'd like to follow Celtics' legend Tommy Heinson's example, you can now legally buy a pack of cigarettes in Massachusetts.
Cut the birthday cake and wish that you make a three point shot, before you end up schlepping around in the G league.
Cut the birthday cake and wish that you make a three point shot, before you end up schlepping around in the G league.
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At this point in time, Grant, Edwards, and Semi are the weak links in the rotation on this team. Of course they occasionally do some good things, but they don't consistently contribute enough in terms of their overall game. I admit I probably had much too lofty expectations for GW - thinking he would fill some of the void from MaMo. While he does some little things well and plays good defense in some situations (picking up fouls in others) he hasn't been able to put the ball in the bucket. Edwards on the other hand, does little else besides put the ball in the bucket, and he's been pretty awful at that. Semi is Semi. We keep thinking he'll get better on offense, and he keeps not.
It's still early in the season. I certainly expect all of them (except for Semi) to get better. Everything will be better the Hayward comes back. Wannamaker and Robert Williams are the two positive surprises this season (probably Theis as well). Stevens seems to have no use at all for Poirier.
a dose of Maine could help with confidence. After Dec.12 Philly game the Celtics have 6 days off. Brad should send Grant, VP, & Carsen to Maine for 2 games (Dec 13th and 15th) to get some reps.
Either way, DNP is the wrong diagnosis.
NBA minutes to bench players in Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan is the best way to figure out playoff rotations. While not running your stars down to a nub
by seasons end
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agree. Danny's after Dec 15th move. add cheap, depth @ the 5... Unless anything obvious falls on his lap
BIGs get injured. Adding depth there seems like a good idea. lovegtm and myself have been pumping this for a while, not much pushback from the board. I'd hate to depend on Kanter to play more than 15-20mpg, like Brad's rotating 5 concept (Kerr has been doing it for years)
agree on Noel, good/cheap/defense-first option. May be good on the switch on the perimeter and help the C's double and play fast. the downside, adds zero bulk
Other reasonable 5s that could possibly be available:
-Richaun Holmes for the bulk and exp practicing w/ Embiid knowledge.
-Looney, may be costly since he has a cheap 3yr deal
-Damian Jones
-Jacob Poeltl, bulk, young active has experience
If the Knicks get itchy about making a move and put Mitchell Robinson on the block,
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But you said it was like last year's Celtics. Last year's Celtics were 7th in 3-point defense.
Does the change from "hot start" to "second tier" possibly coincide with an injury to one of their better players?
Exactly. A bit of ball luck too, but losing GH was subtraction by subtraction. Throw in a west coast trip also.
Nobody thought that this was a 60 win team, which was their pace for quite a while. Regression was inevitable.
Except my argument is it's not actually regression, it's just losing a good player. What if when Hayward comes back they play like a 60-win team again?
It seems there’s a lot of signaling and counter-signaling in this recent discussion re who’s a homer and who’s a sober-minded observer.
It might be interesting to just post what our predictions are for wins and postseason outcome for the Celtics, now that we’ve seen 18 games.
I’ll go first:
56 wins and lose in the conference finals.
It might be interesting to just post what our predictions are for wins and postseason outcome for the Celtics, now that we’ve seen 18 games.
I’ll go first:
56 wins and lose in the conference finals.
I agree with you that the biggest factor is Hayward. I also think that a west coast swing and some ball luck happened.
When GH went out, they were 7-1. If you think that this is a 72 win team with GH, I guess that we have to agree to disagree.
Ask me around mid-January, after Gordo is back and hopefully his pre-hand-injury-self.
I'm a big of fan of Holmes, but I'm not sure why the Kings would let him go on the cheap.
Why would you pay two firsts for a largely lateral swap? Especially as both players are on the same financial timeline and the odds of Boston paying market rate to keep either are next to nil? They aren’t firesaling Langford for a two and a half year deal.
I like MR better, don't see it as a lateral move. I imagine he'd be better in Brad's system than playing alongside MaMo for the Knicks.
maybe the cost is TL and a late first, IDK? at first I was thinking TL/Tacko/late 1st but still, don't know. (edited above post)
3...2...1... WBCD with some advanced metrics showing TL is better than MR
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It’s that Boston just doesn’t value the C spot the same way that other teams do. Horford was signed not because he was a C but because he was a veteran all star known to be a close friend of the prize free agent of that summer. Had he been a PG with those qualifications they still would have signed him and shipped Lil’ Zeke out of town the next day.
Aside from that they pretty obviously prefer to fill the C spot with roleplayers on the cheap. And neither Williams nor Robinson will be cheap in three years (and neither be worth depleting the wing depth they prize so highly). Boston’s far more likely to draft their long term C this June than trade for one (unless there’s someone out there on a long term taxpayer MLE deal).
Aside from that they pretty obviously prefer to fill the C spot with roleplayers on the cheap. And neither Williams nor Robinson will be cheap in three years (and neither be worth depleting the wing depth they prize so highly). Boston’s far more likely to draft their long term C this June than trade for one (unless there’s someone out there on a long term taxpayer MLE deal).