Patriots full-season defensive statistics are atrocious for a SB team. Granted, they improved after the terrible first four weeks, but, statistically, they still don't look like a championship defense.At this point, while the Eagles certainly can win this game, every piece of information available says they probably won't. DVOA has the Pats as the better team (and 58% to win), FPI has the Pats as the better team, ELO has the Pats as the better team (and also 58% to win), the Vegas line is still sitting around Pats -4.5, ESPN survey 5 coaches who faced the teams this year who would win and all 5 picked the Pats, etc., and most of the statistical systems don't even fully account for Wentz's injury.
Other than gut feelings or reverse jinxes, is there a reason to think that the Eagles will win this game (as opposed to the inarguable fact that they are capable and it would happen at least, say 1 out of 5 hypothetical times)?
I don't think any SB winner has had a defense that was bottom 5 in rush YPC, bottom 10 in TO's and bottom 15 in NPY/A.
And while Brady is great, the defense he is facing looks a lot more like a championship defense. The challenge is formidable.
Speaking for myself, I think Vegas has mispriced the odds.