SBLII: Who's Gonna Win?

[ponch73]

At this point, while the Eagles certainly can win this game, every piece of information available says they probably won't. DVOA has the Pats as the better team (and 58% to win), FPI has the Pats as the better team, ELO has the Pats as the better team (and also 58% to win), the Vegas line is still sitting around Pats -4.5, ESPN survey 5 coaches who faced the teams this year who would win and all 5 picked the Pats, etc., and most of the statistical systems don't even fully account for Wentz's injury.

Other than gut feelings or reverse jinxes, is there a reason to think that the Eagles will win this game (as opposed to the inarguable fact that they are capable and it would happen at least, say 1 out of 5 hypothetical times)?

Patriots full-season defensive statistics are atrocious for a SB team. Granted, they improved after the terrible first four weeks, but, statistically, they still don't look like a championship defense.

I don't think any SB winner has had a defense that was bottom 5 in rush YPC, bottom 10 in TO's and bottom 15 in NPY/A.

And while Brady is great, the defense he is facing looks a lot more like a championship defense. The challenge is formidable.

Speaking for myself, I think Vegas has mispriced the odds.

 

[pokey_reese]

As in most games, the bolded is key. Philly was 6 for 13 on 3rd down vs Atl and 10 for 14 on 3rd vs Minny. Has NE really struggled on 3rd down this year/in the playoffs?

Well, NE was in the bottom third of the league this season at least in terms of opponent % success rate at converting 3rd downs. Also in terms of giving up the most first downs to opponents, which looks worse when you consider that the Pats offense should limit the number of possessions.

 

[pokey_reese]

Patriots full-season defensive statistics are atrocious for a SB team. Granted, they improved after the terrible first four weeks, but, statistically, they still don't look like a championship defense.

To be fair, I was using the weighted DVOA stats, so that throws out the truly horrendous early defensive performances.

 

[simplyeric]

Well, NE was in the bottom third of the league this season at least in terms of opponent % success rate at converting 3rd downs. Also in terms of giving up the most first downs to opponents, which looks worse when you consider that the Pats offense should limit the number of possessions.

on the other hand...shorter sample size but:

Opponent 3rd Down Conversion:

1st ranked: Minnesota

2017 28.00%​

3rd Ranked: Philadelphia

2017 32.90%​

20th Ranked: New England

2017: 39.08%
Last 3 Games: 26.19%​

edit: the trend is similar for 1st downs

 

[tims4wins]

Jax was 6-15 but I believe only like 2 for their last 9 or worse

 

[tims4wins]

Also, to me, red zone is more important than 3rd down. If the Pats can force FGs I love their chances. 2 TDs allowed or less and I really like the Pats chances. 3 TDs allowed becomes a much bigger issue.

I do think they will allow the Eagles to drive the ball a bit. BB has talked a lot about how the Eagles are a big play offense. They will take away the deep ball and not give up 30+ yard plays. So holding them to FGs will be key. This doesn't always work - see Super Bowl 46 - but generally speaking holding the other team to FGs results in wins for the Pats.

 

[tims4wins]

Patriots full-season defensive statistics are atrocious for a SB team. Granted, they improved after the terrible first four weeks, but, statistically, they still don't look like a championship defense.

I don't think any SB winner has had a defense that was bottom 5 in rush YPC, bottom 10 in TO's and bottom 15 in NPY/A.

And while Brady is great, the defense he is facing looks a lot more like a championship defense. The challenge is formidable.

Speaking for myself, I think Vegas has mispriced the odds.

Their weighted DVOA is 17th. They finished 16th overall last year. So it's really pretty much on the same level. Have to remember Van Noy was out for several games, etc.

 

[Super Nomario]

As in most games, the bolded is key. Philly was 6 for 13 on 3rd down vs Atl and 10 for 14 on 3rd vs Minny. Has NE really struggled on 3rd down this year/in the playoffs?

Not especially. They were a tick worse than league average - 39.4% where league-average was 38.3%. In the playoffs, Tennessee went 5 of 15, Jacksonville 6 of 15, so they've been better, but tiny sample.

FWIW I don't think either team is going to want to be in a lot of third downs on Sunday. Patricia opens up the pressure schemes in that situation, and the Eagles can kick Graham or Curry inside and create tough matchups. I think a lot of the scoring drives for both sides are going to involve not necessarily big plays but picking up chunks of yardage on first and second down.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I feel like the Eagles are one of the least well-known super bowl participants in the last 20 years - once Wentz went down, everyone wrote them off, and there really wasn't a great team in the NFC at all. I thought for sure the Saints would be the NFC participant, but not so much.

The stats say the Eagles are a good team. They beat everyone, and they beat a Vikes team that I thought was alright in a laugher. I'm not sure I have any idea who wins this game from an actual informed analysis standpoint.

But I think the Pats are so experienced at winning big games by close margins that that's what happens.

Pats 27 Eagles 24.

 

[Super Nomario]

At this point, while the Eagles certainly can win this game, every piece of information available says they probably won't. DVOA has the Pats as the better team (and 58% to win), FPI has the Pats as the better team, ELO has the Pats as the better team (and also 58% to win), the Vegas line is still sitting around Pats -4.5, ESPN survey 5 coaches who faced the teams this year who would win and all 5 picked the Pats, etc., and most of the statistical systems don't even fully account for Wentz's injury.

Other than gut feelings or reverse jinxes, is there a reason to think that the Eagles will win this game (as opposed to the inarguable fact that they are capable and it would happen at least, say 1 out of 5 hypothetical times)?

This is where I'm at. If both teams play like they did in the Conference Championship Games, the Eagles will win in a romp, but if both teams play like they are likely to - based on their season-long performance and factoring the dropoff from Wentz to Foles - the Patriots have a modest edge. The Vegas line strikes me as fair.

As you pointed out above, Eagles have gone 16 for 27 (59%) on 3rd down in the playoffs. I personally think Foles (coached up by Pederson) is a much better QB than Mariota or Bortles.

59% is not sustainable. The best offense in the NFL this year at converting third downs was Atlanta at 44%. The Eagles were at 42% for the year, NE at 41%. Any given Sunday is a small sample size, so maybe Foles lights up the Pats on third down again, but there's no reason to expect that conversion rate is remotely representative of a true talent level here.

 

[BigSoxFan]

All you guys who are predicting a double digit win are absolutely nuts.

 

[dcmissle]

All you guys who are predicting a double digit win are absolutely nuts.

I didn't vote that way, but we may be due for one of these. The Sea massacre of Denver was an exception to the recent trend.

The blowout could go in any direction; reasonable scenarios could be imagined for either team.

 

[simplyeric]

All you guys who are predicting a double digit win are absolutely nuts.

Oh, you think it might be a slim 2-point margin?

That's still double-digits though.

Spoiler: Double-digit win...

 

[Oil Can Dan]

I really wouldn't be surprised if either team won by 25+ points. I'd think the Pats would be more likely to do that, but really anything could happen on this one.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Repeat of the Monday night loss vs Miami. Pats running game is shut down, Brady struggles throwing the ball 40+ times. Philly is faster, more physical, wins at the lines. Patriots fall behind and play catch up all game. Comeback falls short. 27-20 Eagles. Foles is MVP.

 

[Carlos Cowart]

I'm predicting a double digit win.Partially because I think the Pats are a better team with better coaches and way more playoff/ SB experience.

But mostly because Kraft has put in his annual call to the league office to let them know he expects to get all the close calls; the ex-KGB guys on the payroll are doing their usual bugging/taping/stealing and whatnot; and of course Brady has instructed the clubhouse monkeys to take all the air out of the game balls, because everyone knows flat footballs spiral better.

 

[streeter88]

Foles is MVP.

The prospect of this is making me throw up in my mouth. Kinda like McNabb in SBXXXIX....
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2520265-nfl-urban-legends-donovan-mcnabbs-super-puke

Edit: Thanks Ed Hillel for reminding us all to sack up. I voted Pats by 7. Foles will revert.

 

[Ed Hillel]

All you guys who are predicting a double digit win are absolutely nuts.

All you people consistently pessimistic about the greatest team we’ll probably see in our lifetime’s are worse. The Titans scared people here. The TITANS.

Three weeks ago, everyone here begged for this matchup. Now, after one game, Nick Foles is the second coming of Otto Graham and there’s no way he converts to the shitty part of himself in the biggest stage.

Maybe the Eagles win, that would in no way be shocking. But I’m taking Nick Foles to shit himself and Tom Brady to be Tom Brady. I don’t really understand how that’s outlandish.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

On offense, after a few initial stumbles, the oline holds their own just enough to let Brady feast on good matchups, especially to Gronk, RBs, and WRs running crossing routes. On defense, Patricia drives SOSH crazy by taking away the deep ball and forcing Foles to execute over and over on short throws. This leads to a few excruciating drives but, over time, especially as Matty P throws new wrinkles out there, Foles makes a few crucial misreads and errant throws that kill second half drives. Pats win 31-23.

 

[Soxy]

He just completed 79% of his passes vs a better D last week. Not saying he will, but is there no way he can do what he did to the Vikings D to the Pats D?

If the Patriots defense plays as poorly as they did in September, which is basically the level Minnesota played at two Sundays ago, then sure. It's not like Foles was putting the ball into tight windows. Coverages were being blown and guys were running wide open. It was literally like watching the September version of the Patriots defense.

Minnesota's defense was arguably the best in the NFL this past season, but they certainly didn't play like it in the NFC Championship Game. Not trying to discredit Foles, who took advantage of every Vikings mistake and was brilliant. But the Vikings defense did not play at a high level in that game. To say the least.

 

[Super Nomario]

Would you guys believe that the Patriots defense has a better sack rate than Philly's? I'm kind of mystified.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Would you guys believe that the Patriots defense has a better sack rate than Philly's? I'm kind of mystified.

I've read that Philly has excellent pressure statistics despite the surprisingly-not-all-that-great sack statistics. I don't have access to the data to check that claim though.

 

[BigSoxFan]

All you people consistently pessimistic about the greatest team we’ll probably see in our lifetime’s are worse. The Titans scared people here. The TITANS.

Three weeks ago, everyone here begged for this matchup. Now, after one game, Nick Foles is the second coming of Otto Graham and there’s no way he converts to the shitty part of himself in the biggest stage.

Maybe the Eagles win, that would in no way be shocking. But I’m taking Nick Foles to shit himself and Tom Brady to be Tom Brady. I don’t really understand how that’s outlandish.

So, thinking a 10+ point win against a 13 win team with a very good defense is unlikely is being pessimistic? Ok. I would love to be wrong on this. But I’m not going to be and I’ll eat a log of Rocco’s shit if I am.

 

[Ale Xander]

So, thinking a 10+ point win against a 13 win team with a very good defense is unlikely is being pessimistic? Ok. I would love to be wrong on this. But I’m not going to be and I’ll eat a log of Rocco’s shit if I am.

 

[Ed Hillel]

So, thinking a 10+ point win against a 13 win team with a very good defense is unlikely is being pessimistic? Ok. I would love to be wrong on this. But I’m not going to be and I’ll eat a log of Rocco’s shit if I am.

No, I think you suggesting it’s absurd others could see it happening is. I don’t think this Eagles defense is nearly as well suited to slow down this Pats’ offense, either. They leave gaps in the middle of the field, which is where Gronk/Amendola and the RB feast. I also don’t think they have a good answer for Cooks.

 

[Captaincoop]

So, thinking a 10+ point win against a 13 win team with a very good defense is unlikely is being pessimistic? Ok. I would love to be wrong on this. But I’m not going to be and I’ll eat a log of Rocco’s shit if I am.

You'll eat a log if it's a 10 point game?

(insert little popcorn-eating guy here)

 

[Red Averages]

Just so amazing to see how much the narrrative on the Eagles has shifted over the last month based on one game. Pats >10.

I mean just look at the drives after Minnny opened with a TD. Vikings Throw a pick 6. 3 and out. 3 and out. Drive the field and fumble. Now it’s 21-7 when they get the ball back. Quick 2 Min drive that stalls at mid field, Eagles come back and get a FG 24-7 at the half. Eagles open with a TD yo start the 2nd half. Game over.

It is amazing how much better you can look when you start the first half up 2 turnovers to none. The Eagles did look great. I’m selling them keeping this close big time. If the Pats lose the turnover battle by 3 like the Vikings I will be wrong. You can’t bet on that type of outlier performance.

 

[Oppo]

Just so amazing to see how much the narrrative on the Eagles has shifted over the last month based on one game. Pats >10.

Agreed. They went from everyone thinking they were in a class just above Ten/Buf to sexy underdog pick.

 

[BigSoxFan]

You'll eat a log if it's a 10 point game?

(insert little popcorn-eating guy here)

Yes. With sprinkles on it. Our defense can’t force turnovers and Philly is going to move the ball and will get into the end zone at least twice. Pats offense will do just enough to win.

 

[staz]

I'm waaaay too emotionally invested to make any sort of logical prediction... I can see a blowout win, a blowout loss, and everything in between.

I do know, however, Philly will win the toss, defer and the Pats will start with an inside run play that goes nowhere en route to a quick 3 and out. Collinsworth will then proclaim gleefully, "just the start the Eagles wanted!!11" Foles will then admirably lead his team quickly downfield into the Red Area, but ultimately settle for 3 points. Bend, don't break. Also, ahead or behind, the Pats D will be better in the 2nd half.

But that's all I know... as for the rest of the game and final outcome - no idea.

 

[snowmanny]

So I am worried about lots of things. I am worried about the Eagles dominating the lines, and I am worried that the Patriots will be outplayed most of the game and adapt too slowly and have to try to mount a furious comeback like they had to do in five of their last ten playoff games (BAL14, SEA14, DEN15, ATL16, JAX17) and the PIT17 game, I am worried that Brady will force the ball to Gronk and Cooks in double coverage too many times, and that the Patriots will lose the turnover battle since there is no Law/Bruschi and this isn't a big play defense, and that the Patriots will give up huge yards at the end of either half like they do way too often.

But I do think there is a tendency to underrate the Patriots WR and RB weapons: I see these positions being listed in the media as even with the Eagles in matchups and I don't buy it. I also think there is a tendency to underrate how good the defense can be in stretches: 85 points given up in the second half of the last 14 games is really good.

I'll be optimistic and say 21-19 Pats, but there is almost no outcome that would shock me.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Repeat of the Monday night loss vs Miami. Pats running game is shut down, Brady struggles throwing the ball 40+ times. Philly is faster, more physical, wins at the lines. Patriots fall behind and play catch up all game. Comeback falls short. 27-20 Eagles. Foles is MVP.

You're booking Brady for a game like 24-43, 1 TD 2 picks, with the Pats getting like 250 total yards and a -13 TOP disadvantage?

I'm going with 'no'. It's extremely rare, even in games where he gets hit a ton, for him to put up a stat line that poor in a game of this magnitude . You'd have to go to the 2016 AFCCG v. Denver for a comparison, and the trench battle is nowhere near the mismatch it was in that game.

 

[Valek123]

Patriots 41 Eagles 27
Eagles score a late TD to make the score seem closer than it was. Special teams creates a turn over for an easy short Field TD for the Patriots. Butler finally finds his groove and picks off a long Pass, and Gilmore picks another early in the 3rd quarter. Philly dominates early on the ground, but due to the score is forced into passing.

Brady has a solid game management game, similar to his early Superbowls and Lewis/White put on a show.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Patriots in a close one 27-23.

Like many of you I can see a lot of outcomes. I can see how the Eagles and Pats could blow the other out. I also see a lot of close games between two very good teams. If it is a close game I trust the red zone defense and Brady to get it done. Oh, bad Foles please.

 

[wiffleballhero]

I think it will be lower scoring than most of us are willing to imagine.

17-15 Pats. All 15 come on FGs for Philly.

Late FG puts the Pats up by two to win.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I can’t believe the fear in this thread.

It’s Nick Foles and Doug Pederson vs Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Good lord guys.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Repeat of the Monday night loss vs Miami. Pats running game is shut down, Brady struggles throwing the ball 40+ times. Philly is faster, more physical, wins at the lines. Patriots fall behind and play catch up all game. Comeback falls short. 27-20 Eagles. Foles is MVP.

Isn't that the game we played without Gronk and Hogan?

 

[8slim]

I can’t believe the fear in this thread.

It’s Nick Foles and Doug Pederson vs Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Good lord guys.

But it’s not that. It’s Brady vs the Eagles D, and Foles vs the Pats D. I’m glad to see some people be wildly confident. But it’s best to be that way by looking at the actual matchups that will occur on the field.

 

[Oppo]

Look at the offenses the Eagles have played (ranking), points given up by Eagles, and total PPG.

1st LAR 35 (29.9)
6th KC 27 (25.9)
10th Min 7 (23.9)
11th Sea 24 (22.9)
12th Car 23 (22.7)
13th LAC 24 (22.2)
14th Dal 9 and 6 (22.1)
15th Atl 10 (22.1)
16th Was 17 and 24 (21.4)
20th SF 10 (20.7) No JG
23rd Oak 10 (18.8)
25th Ari 7 (18.4)
27th Den 23 (18.1)
29th Chi 3 (16.5)
31st NYG 24 and 29 (15.4)

Eagles shut down some bad offenses- Chi, Ari, Oak, and SF. Atl and Min shut down in the playoffs but watching those games those 2 teams also shit all over themselves. 5 of the top 6 offenses they played scored more against the Eagles than they did against the rest of the league. Looking at what LAR, KC, Sea, Car, and LAC did, the most likely outcome is the Pats (28.6 PPG) scoring 24-35 pts.

 

[yecul]

Removing wishy washiness.

Pats will play smart football and limit turnovers. Both defenses play strong and keep the score relatively low. Pats O-Line + Brady wind up as the difference maker along with Foles' limitations being exposed.

Patriots 24
Eagles 17

Good, solid, close game in which the Pats look like the winner from the second quarter on when they take and hold the lead. Eagles are good and Wentz might be the difference. But Pats are simply a notch better, which is no slight!

 

[nattysez]

Pats can't hang with the Philly D's early hyperaggressiveness, resulting in Brady taking a beating and throwing a pick. On offense, Philly marches down the field with a mix of hard running and dink n dunk passing a la Jax. It's 14-0 after 1, and the Pats scrape and claw to get it to 21-10 at the break.

Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake reunite during halftime while the Pats get their heads on straight.

Pats O improves in the second half, as Philly's defense starts to wilt a bit after their hyped-up start. But the Pats' D doesn't get any help from Philly, and Philly keeps grinding out long drives.

A final drive by the Pats falls short, and they lose 35-27.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Pats 34-24.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I don’t know. Pats 25, Iggles 18.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I am surprised so many people have the Patriots scoring a 30-handle. They scored 30 eight times this season including the divisional playoff game against Tennessee but most of those games were against poor NFL defenses in terms of DVOA. The exceptions were the Panthers and Saints but that was earlier in the season. As such, I think this may be a lower scoring affair than people are expecting. I don't see this game being a laugher for the Patriots.

If anything, I see some risk of the Eagles blowing the Patriots out as they wear down NE with short passes and the run game.

Pats 20, Eagles 17

 

[Kliq]

The Patriots are going to win by 30 points. They are playing the fucking Eagles in the SB; with Nick Foles as the QB. Did you guys actually watch the NFC Championship game? Minnesota shot themselves in the foot a million times through poor turnovers and horribly blown coverages, allowing NICK FOLES to pick them apart. Enough about their defense; Brady, Gronk, Amendola, Cooks, Lewis and White are going to obliterate these not-ready-for-prime-time fools. I’m so sick of this board’s Patriots cynicism during the greatest run in NFL history.

Patriots 75, Eagles 10

 

[DoyleCanBoyd]

I'm a lifelong Patriots fan. One of my first memories is hearing adults bitching about drafting Tony Eason. I remember watching Superbowl XX. But I've lived in South Philly for going on 14 years. The Eagles have become my legit second favorite team, and the team I watch the second most. Let's not discount how snakebitten this franchise is... That being said, and I'm not going to claim I know how it happens, but: Pats 27-20

 

[simplyeric]

Pats can't hang with the Philly D's early hyperaggressiveness, resulting in Brady taking a beating and throwing a pick. On offense, Philly marches down the field with a mix of hard running and dink n dunk passing a la Jax. It's 14-0 after 1, and the Pats scrape and claw to get it to 21-10 at the break.

Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake reunite during halftime while the Pats get their heads on straight.

Pats O improves in the second half, as Philly's defense starts to wilt a bit after their hyped-up start. But the Pats' D doesn't get any help from Philly, and Philly keeps grinding out long drives.

A final drive by the Pats falls short, and they lose 35-27.

I had a whole post written out about how crazy this prediction was...and then realized i don’t know how is mathness.

That being said, I don’t see how philly scores 7 TD’s on long grinding drives without making at least one crucial error, i.e. a turnover, and I’m calling that a 10-14 point swing.

Pats, 34-28 (or 31-28).

Although to be honest I’d subtract a TD from each in favor of a FG:

Pats 27, Philly 24

 

[streeter88]

I had a whole post written out about how crazy this prediction was...and then realized i don’t know how is mathness

Hey simplyeric, not sure what this was supposed to say?

 

[rodderick]

Guys, help me figure something out here. I'm assuming most of you believe that the Pats would've beaten the Bears in '06 had Reche Caldwell caught that ball against Indy, right? Well, they had a better defense than this year's Eagles by DVOA, yards per drive, points per drive and turnovers forced per drive (even adjusting for the different passing environment). Of course, they were QB'd by Rex Grossman, who in the regular season had a passer rating of 73.9, 10% worse than the 2006 league average. The Eagles have Nick Foles at QB, who in the regular season had a passer rating of 79.5, 12% worse than the 2017 league average.

I know that Foles is actually a better QB than Grossman, but it seems like the '06 Bears actually had a better defense and also an incredibly dangerous ST unit with Devin Hester. So I'm struggling to see why most Pats fans are absolutely certain that the Pats would've wiped the floor with the Bears in '06, but now some appear to be deathly afraid of the Eagles. Is it just recency bias after the Vikings performance?

 

[wiffleballhero]

Well, some of it is following BB lead: always respect the opponent.

The Pats are willing to let teams move between the 20s or so, so Philly is likely to get some points and chew some clock. Philly D seems respectable enough, so the Pats are unlikely to put up 40, and maybe (as they often do) they will have some tough sledding in the first half.

This is hardly chicken little stuff.