SBLII: Who's Gonna Win?
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
I'm going with 27 - 17 Pats.
I'd love to see a forty burger though. Make it happen Pats!
edit - Just skimmed the rest of the thread. I saw at least 3 other posts with this exact score. So if we are going with the mode being the best predictor. Here's your final score. I'd take it.
I'd love to see a forty burger though. Make it happen Pats!
edit - Just skimmed the rest of the thread. I saw at least 3 other posts with this exact score. So if we are going with the mode being the best predictor. Here's your final score. I'd take it.
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Pats 27 - Eagles 20. Late touchdown makes score closer than the game. Danny Amendola gets MVP consideration but it goes to TB12.
But TB gives the truck to....Harrison, for his two timely strip-sacks that came at key moments.
(And Pittsburgh drowns into an inland sea)
It feels like a lot has gone the Patriots' way this year and that they've perhaps been a bit fortunate. Missed field goals by the Bucs. Austin Seferian-Jenkins' bobble touchback. Jesse James' drop. Plus a few pretty dramatic fourth quarter comebacks where every play in the fourth quarter seemingly mattered and a couple were darned close. I also sort of thought the playoff bracket shaped up really nicely with the Bengals converting a big fourth down play to keep the Ravens out. Not sure any of that would have made any difference, but I kind of feel as though the margin has been really narrow this year and it's taken a fair amount of just barelys to get to this point. Maybe that's true of every team that makes it this far in the NFL these days -- there's no dominant team anymore.
So, what does that have to do with who will win? I dunno. If there's a script for this year, I think it's either going to be that the Patriots combined some excellent fortune with some brilliant play, and under that script they eek one out on Sunday. Or, the script is going to be that we're the team that had its luck run out one game from the finish line -- with something crappy like us getting the crappy end of a bobble as a guy is going to ground or something like that.
Or maybe there's no script and all that's dumb. That's probably the answer. But I just can't shake the feeling that this game is going to come down to a play or two one way or the other. I don't think our defense is good enough to make it a blow out and I think (hope) our offense is good enough to avoid one.
Eagles feel a bit more well rounded to me while the Patriots seem a bit more susceptible to peaks and valleys. I hope it's mostly peaks on Sunday.
So, what does that have to do with who will win? I dunno. If there's a script for this year, I think it's either going to be that the Patriots combined some excellent fortune with some brilliant play, and under that script they eek one out on Sunday. Or, the script is going to be that we're the team that had its luck run out one game from the finish line -- with something crappy like us getting the crappy end of a bobble as a guy is going to ground or something like that.
Or maybe there's no script and all that's dumb. That's probably the answer. But I just can't shake the feeling that this game is going to come down to a play or two one way or the other. I don't think our defense is good enough to make it a blow out and I think (hope) our offense is good enough to avoid one.
Eagles feel a bit more well rounded to me while the Patriots seem a bit more susceptible to peaks and valleys. I hope it's mostly peaks on Sunday.
A totally reasonable script would be: Pats don’t play flat out of the gate (so many examples), they play ‘well’ on offense and they play ‘well’ on D. And they win by 10 (or less with a late score making it closer than it really was).
That’s a completely reasonable and mundane scenario, resulting in, say, 24-20 Pats.
‘A play’ turns that into 31-20 or 24-21 or, by the many arms of Vishnu 24-27. Multiple plays turns that into something different either way.
Eagles, or Pats, can absolutely accomplish that.
But I think something has to favor Philly for them to win. If some collective entity throws up a stinker, then so be it. But I think a Stinker is more likely than a True Gem.
If past is prologue, the amount of local fans/natives in the building is not going to be that high or enough to sway things. In Jax, there were substantially more Eagles fans than Pats fans and I expect the same here. The Vikings fans (and the fans of other NFL teams) won’t be enough when combined with the Pats fans to even things out. In short, the HFA will favor Philadelphia.
But not exactly that, because even if it's like 65/35 Eagles fans, that means it will be more noisy during their drives than a home game. Maybe the biggest part of HFA is the advantage the offense has communicating pre-snap ... I don't expect that to be fully intact in the SB, with all the elevated atmosphere etc.
I would really like to see the Pats throw something unexpected at Philly early in this game. BB's teams have always started conservatively in the SB, and I'm not saying I want them to go nuts with something super risky, but you have to think Pederson et al are going to be looking for the typical vanilla start and halftime adjustments. I thought Jax got off to a hot start by being a bit more aggressive on offense and I would expect Pederson to be aggressive in scripting his early drives too. I'd like to see Bill rattle them a little bit and see if they can adjust.
Anyway I'm going with Pats 28, Eagles 16. Foles is able to move the ball, but settles for too many FGs. Pats put it mostly out of reach in the late 3rd / early 4th and the defense finishes it out with two second half turnovers.
I voted 'Pats 4 to 6', but just once would I love to see a Pats team lay down the law in the Super Bowl from wire to wire and leave no doubt who the better team is. Let Belichick, McDaniels and Patricia hatch the perfect game plan to flummox Philly and let the players execute it mercilessly. Yes, we could spend from now to game time reading analyses of how the Eagles are a bad match for the Patriots and what they are capable of, but we could also use the Internet Archive site to find plenty of articles spelling out why Peyton Manning and the Broncos were going to win Super Bowl 48 (23 of 49 ESPN analysts picked Denver, largely due to Manning). No point in haters harping on a fluke play or questionable call if New England wins by at least a couple of touchdowns and the outcome is never in doubt. The legacy of Brady, Belichick and Kraft is secure but a blowout win in the championship would be a heck of a nice exclamation point.
So...the Eagles get two safeties...the Pats get two FG's? Or are you thinking three safeties?
I know you were talking point differential not total score.
I was just trying to have some fun.
I'll stop now.
There's been a lot of focus on the Eagles DL dominating, especially the interior, but people forget that this is not the full solution to beating the Patriots. You have to disrupt the pocket AND cover tight early, because Brady can get the ball out so quick he can neutralize even interior pressure against zone and off-man coverage. The Saints game earlier this year is a great example; Brady had rushers in his face much of the game but absolutely torched the New Orleans back end. The Eagles play a lot of zone and a lot of off-man; they're not a heavy press team, Schwartz is more of an execution-based DC than a switch-up-the-game-plan DC, and I think there are some favorable matchups for the Pats (getting Cooks or Amendola on Jalen Mills, Gronk vs anybody, the RB vs the LB) even if he does decide to press. The Eagles DL will make some plays, but the back seven is a far cry from Jacksonville's or the Broncos units that gave the Patriots fits. I'll be surprised if Brady and co struggle to move the ball.
So I'm less afraid of a SB Giants game and more afraid of a game like the 2013 AFCCG vs Baltimore where the Pats moved the ball consistently (428 yards) and then the Ravens D stiffened / the Pats O sputtered in the red zone (two short FG, a turnover on downs and two picks deep in Ravens territory) so they only scored 13 points. Statistically the Patriots red zone O is very good and the Eagles RZ D just average, but anything can happen in one game and the Pats like to run the ball close in, which I think they'll have trouble with.
The X factor for me is that Andy Reid teams lit up the Pats D in the last two regular season meetings, and it's not like the Patriots D covered itself in glory in the playoff game a couple years back (27 first downs, 378 yards, 20 points on only 9 possessions). Doug Pederson was OC on the 2014 Chiefs team which went 20 of 26 for 248 and 3 TDs and ran for 207 yards and another TD against a much better Pats defense than this one. Does Reid have the Patriots defense figured out, and by extension does Pederson? I'm not a Foles believer but I'm not especially high on Alex Smith either and those Chiefs squads had just OK offensive supporting casts (in 2014 and 2015, anyway). Or maybe these were fluke games where the Chiefs caught the Pats early in the year before they adjusted. I see this sort of dominating offensive performance by Philadelphia as unlikely but I can't dismiss it out of hand.
The danger for the Eagles is if they fall behind early. The Pats have a great kickoff unit and Philadelphia's KR unit is weak, so the Pats can bury them in bad field position if they are putting points up. A lead diminishes the run threat and by extension the play action and RPO games. And Patricia's really good at scheming pressure and can reach into his bag of tricks if he knows a pass is coming. This has been the formula for the Pats D all year.
I have Pats 27-20. I guess at the end of the day most outcomes are plausible, though I think if the Pats get up big early it's going to be tough sledding for the Eagles.
So I'm less afraid of a SB Giants game and more afraid of a game like the 2013 AFCCG vs Baltimore where the Pats moved the ball consistently (428 yards) and then the Ravens D stiffened / the Pats O sputtered in the red zone (two short FG, a turnover on downs and two picks deep in Ravens territory) so they only scored 13 points. Statistically the Patriots red zone O is very good and the Eagles RZ D just average, but anything can happen in one game and the Pats like to run the ball close in, which I think they'll have trouble with.
The X factor for me is that Andy Reid teams lit up the Pats D in the last two regular season meetings, and it's not like the Patriots D covered itself in glory in the playoff game a couple years back (27 first downs, 378 yards, 20 points on only 9 possessions). Doug Pederson was OC on the 2014 Chiefs team which went 20 of 26 for 248 and 3 TDs and ran for 207 yards and another TD against a much better Pats defense than this one. Does Reid have the Patriots defense figured out, and by extension does Pederson? I'm not a Foles believer but I'm not especially high on Alex Smith either and those Chiefs squads had just OK offensive supporting casts (in 2014 and 2015, anyway). Or maybe these were fluke games where the Chiefs caught the Pats early in the year before they adjusted. I see this sort of dominating offensive performance by Philadelphia as unlikely but I can't dismiss it out of hand.
The danger for the Eagles is if they fall behind early. The Pats have a great kickoff unit and Philadelphia's KR unit is weak, so the Pats can bury them in bad field position if they are putting points up. A lead diminishes the run threat and by extension the play action and RPO games. And Patricia's really good at scheming pressure and can reach into his bag of tricks if he knows a pass is coming. This has been the formula for the Pats D all year.
I have Pats 27-20. I guess at the end of the day most outcomes are plausible, though I think if the Pats get up big early it's going to be tough sledding for the Eagles.
2 days, 3 hours and 34 minutes.
But 48 hours away from the puppy bowl, which really is the official kick off of the Super Bowl.
But 48 hours away from the puppy bowl, which really is the official kick off of the Super Bowl.
31-20 Pats. I feel like it'll be 31-13 and the Eagles will get a TD with 5 or 6 minutes to go in the 4th to make the score seem more respectable than this is going to be.
ESPN staff — 61 pick Pats, 24 Eagles.
Insulted?
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22190604/super-bowl-lii-predictions-espn-staff-picks-new-england-patriots-philadelphia-eagles
Insulted?
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22190604/super-bowl-lii-predictions-espn-staff-picks-new-england-patriots-philadelphia-eagles
I just have a feeling that there has to be a blowout sometime in this era. I see a multiplicity of outcomes but the one that keeps coming up is that the Pats have things figured out and put three TD’s a half on the board while holding the Foley’s to mostly FG’s - doing the math says that means - 42-16 Pats.
Of course not.
But we don’t commonly get to watch a team like the Patriots on super bowl Sunday, so...
Given what we've seen in terms of officiating in this year's tournament, I expect the defenses to get away with a lot. Pats 20, Eagles 19.
Something I’ve been pontificating on is Cooks and Dorsett on turf vs a defense that doesn’t excel at tight man coverage. I think they have a chance to hit some big plays early and that can loosen up the middle of the D to shove long drives down their throat often. Still don’t see many ways PHI keeps it close minus a couple turnovers
7-0, Philadelphia, end Q1.
10-7, New England, end Q2.
17-14, New England, end Q3.
31-20, New England, game over.
Lombardi number 6.
That said, this prediction's final score is a case where the margin truly doesn't tell how close the game was throughout. That is to say, I think the score that extends the lead to 11 is a long, Scottish Game-esque drive (the one that made it then 14-10!) that bleeds a ton of clock to put it away.
10-7, New England, end Q2.
17-14, New England, end Q3.
31-20, New England, game over.
Lombardi number 6.
That said, this prediction's final score is a case where the margin truly doesn't tell how close the game was throughout. That is to say, I think the score that extends the lead to 11 is a long, Scottish Game-esque drive (the one that made it then 14-10!) that bleeds a ton of clock to put it away.
Every SB there’s a random wrinkle. Wouldnt shock me if they hit Dorsett on a deep shot on turf vs a suspect secondary
Youre right. I was suspect but I can see it. Ya never know with the pats.
Cooks
Amendola
Hogan
Dorsett
You’re not going into a SB with 3 WRs and Britt ain’t playing so Dorsett seems like a lock to me.
Patriots 30-23, but up 30-16 and giving up a late fourth quarter TD to make it look a little closer. After giving up an early FG to fall behind 3-0, the Patriots take the lead 7-3 and never fall behind again.
Eagles will score a TD first and everyone will panic. Gost will miss an XP or FG. Butler will get burned for a big play. Josh will make some stupid play calls and will run for - 1 yard on first down several series in a row. Brady will throw a pick. Won't matter, Pats 27-17.
Correct... but it seems to happen on the other side, too. Matthews from Seattle game.
Who is the scrub WR on Eagles who will torch us for several big plays?
[I also think Dorsett will have a couple big plays in this game]
Time to break out that old playbook staple, the play action one man pattern Matthew Slater deep bomb.
What was the name of the Seahawks receiver who had like 40 career yards then dropped 100 in the first half of XLIX?
I’m hoping this is sort of like the Buffalo game, acknowledging Eagles are a better team. First half tight, something like 14-13 Pats. Then a shift to the hurry-up and some yips from Foles once behind opens the game up. 31-20 Pats
I can't read good. Thank you.
Pats are going to pull it out, but it will be close. I think the people predicting a blowout are crazy.
How do you view red zone defense versus the third down defense outside of the red zone? I get the picking up a first down at mid field doesn't impact the score, but isn't it largely the same approach? If stats say a team is good at one but not at another, is that a sample size issue, statistical noise, or can it really be an issue of strategy? It can't really be one of execution, can it? They don't work harder inside the 20 that outside it, do they?
It’s a prediction not what we might think as most likely, if that makes sense. 9 of 10 games might be close, but on any given day one team can put it all together.
And based on all the picks I keep hearing, the Eagles are so underrated they’re overrated.
Exactly. On what is supposedly a super smart sports message board I’ve never seen so many people say some variation of “If the Pats play against the Eagles like they did against the Jags and the Eagles play like they did against the Vikings then we are in trouble”
That’s not analysis that’s what a 10 year old says.
Edit: Can Eagles win? Absolutely. But beating Case Keenum isn’t the same as beating Tom Brady.