Week 16 Game Thread
- Thread starter staz
- Start date
I wonder as QBs become more successful they become more cavalier. Hence trying to make bigger throws and therefore get more picks. Thinking Favre, Brees, etc. But the all times like Montana, Brady, Manning avoid this sort of over confidence. No idea how to look at that though. (maybe uptick in Int rates?)
I wasn't being sarcastic, my bad. I genuinely meant that that's similar sports psychology/stats research. Wasn't being snarky.
Yep. If PGH wins, and then KC beats Denver, Miami is in the playoffs and has nothing to play for next week. Thus making it a lot easier for NE. If PGH and KC win, I'll bet that Gase sits Ajayi, who is their biggest weapon at this point.
If QBs survive to continue their careers long enough, there is a marked and steady drop in INT rate after their first few years.
Caveats about survivorship bias are fair, but it's quite observable.
Here's our rationalization:
Pittsburgh is #1 in weighted DVOA as of right now, and #3 in overall DVOA behind NE and DAL. They are a good team. Your brain thinking about times they choked away this game or that is cherry-picking.
Ahh. It's all good. I didn't take any offense. It's the holidays!
Any links or articles? I sort of assumed initially 'good' starting QBs had a decline (or they'd be gone) but at some point the 'gunslinger mentality' may take over and see an uptick later in career. Or maybe the INT numbers are lower but occur on throws that would not have been attempted earlier in careers. Eg instead of a safe dump off, they are more confident, and attempt to thread it between 2 defenders.
