Trading Rondo...

[dylanmarsh]

if sacramento's interested, i'd go rondo for salary filler plus one of: mclemore or derrick williams or stauskas or top-3 protected 1st.  I'd try to get Quincy Acy as a throw-in too.
 
I think there's a zero percent chance we'll ever get back full rondo basketball value.  I think we'll have to be happy to get back 50 cents on the dollar, otherwise we'll get nothing.  Rondo's value as a trading asset is not anywhere close to his basketball value because of his contract status.

I said it once before, but it makes sense for the TWolves to take Rondo and try to convince both Love and Rondo to stay, especially with how Saunders is looking to add veteran pieces. They would have one season season to make it work. The cap numbers work where they could take Green and Bass, too. From the celtics perspective, you're betting that Love and Rondo leave in 2015 and you have 2 or 3 unprotected or minimally protected picks.

 

[radsoxfan]

if sacramento's interested, i'd go rondo for salary filler plus one of: mclemore or derrick williams or stauskas or top-3 protected 1st.  I'd try to get Quincy Acy as a throw-in too.
 
I think there's a zero percent chance we'll ever get back full rondo basketball value.  I think we'll have to be happy to get back 50 cents on the dollar, otherwise we'll get nothing.  Rondo's value as a trading asset is not anywhere close to his basketball value because of his contract status.

 
Trading Rondo for Derrick Williams is straight up insane.  Williams is salary filler, not the main piece of any major (or minor) trade.  Better than 50% chance he is out of the league in 2 years. 
 
McLemore may turn out to be similarly terrible, but at least he is 21 and has only sucked for 1 year.  Williams is 23 and has sucked for 3 years. 
 
I'm all for trading Rondo if a good deal comes up, and I don't expect Ainge to get some huge prize out of the trade. But he can do better than former top 10 picks that are either complete busts or likely busts. If not, Ainge should just ride him out this year and get nothing in return for Rondo.  That's honestly not much different than some of the deals you're proposing anyway. 

 

[bowiac]

I said it once before, but it makes sense for the TWolves to take Rondo and try to convince both Love and Rondo to stay, especially with how Saunders is looking to add veteran pieces. They would have one season season to make it work. The cap numbers work where they could take Green and Bass, too. From the celtics perspective, you're betting that Love and Rondo leave in 2015 and you have 2 or 3 unprotected or minimally protected picks.

I think they'd be crazy to do that, but I'm high on Rubio and down on Rondo. I'd rather have Rubio, even if they were the same age and had the same contract.

 

[Brickowski]

The Sac player I'd be targeting in any Rondo trade is Jason Thompson. I have no interest in McLemore.

 

[radsoxfan]

The Sac player I'd be targeting in any Rondo trade is Jason Thompson. I have no interest in McLemore.

 
Egh…. Maybe we need to move on from the Sacramento plan.  Each new idea is worse than the last. 

 

[Brickowski]

Egh…. Maybe we need to move on from the Sacramento plan.  Each new idea is worse than the last.

Then Sacramento currently has no player who interests me, assuming Cousins is not part of the discussion.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Egh. Maybe we need to move on from the Sacramento plan.  Each new idea is worse than the last. 

Not to mention they just signed Collison to be their starter. He isn't getting paid $6m per to be a backup PG on a lottery team. The Kings talk is so two weeks ago.

 

[knucklecup]

The Sac player I'd be targeting in any Rondo trade is Jason Thompson. I have no interest in McLemore.

Sacramento would dump Thompson if they could.

 

[Brickowski]

Sacramento would dump Thompson if they could.

Why? He's 6-11, 250. His per 36 scoring and rebounding numbers are decent, his BBIQ is good and he's under control for multiple years for reasonable money. I guess he's not sexy enough for some folks.

 

[radsoxfan]

Why? He's 6-11, 250. His per 36 scoring and rebounding numbers are decent, his BBIQ is good and he's under control for multiple years for reasonable money. I guess he's not sexy enough for some folks.

 
There are plenty of terrible 6'11, 250 lb guys out there, and Thompson is one.  Plus he is getting paid 6M+/season for the next 3 years.  
 
I'm also not sure in what world 10.5 points/36 minutes is decent.  Among 226 qualified players last year, Thompson was #204. 

 

[Devizier]

Jason Thompson is the kind of JAG that crappy teams use to fill their rosters on short contracts.
 
Recognizing that the Celtics have plenty of those guys already.

 

[bowiac]

https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/488673449188278273
 
I don't really believe this report given what I've said before, but I thought I'd throw it out there.

 

[ALiveH]

I think the guys on this board know this already, but neither rondo or love seem like awesome fits for houston.  they probably need more plus-defenders and above average shooters (which is why bosh would've been a perfect fit at the 4).
 
But, if they were to go after rondo what would the C's want that the rockets can give up?
 
Houston's future 1sts don't project to be worth that much and the first one they can trade is 2017.  the young guys on their roster i see that have chance to be any good are Daniels, Beverly, Matiejunas and Terrence Jones.  Not that we should care too much about roster construction in a rebuild scenario but it sure seems like the C's have a lot of young guards and PFs - in an ideal world, would be adding at SF and C.

 

[bowiac]

As I mentioned, I love Clint Capela. He's a tremendous athlete, who put up huge translated numbers in France. He ranked #2 overall by Pelton's numbers, which are not normally very kind to foreign players. He fell in the draft mostly because of a bad Nike Hoops Summit performance:
 

Capela's star has lost much of its luster since a disappointing effort at the Nike Hoop Summit in April, but it's worth remembering why he was once considered a likely lottery pick. Before age 20, Capela was one of the best players in the French ProA League and put up similar numbers in Chalon's brief EuroCup stay. He projects as a high-percentage finisher, a plus rebounder and a good shot-blocker from the power forward spot. SCHOENE compares Capela to former No. 3 overall pick Derrick Favors during his rookie season.

 
Dean Demakis called him the steal of the draft, and unsurprisingly, I tend to agree:
 

I still think Houston got the steal of the draft in Capela. For whatever reason, NBA teams are much quicker to sour on toolsy bigs with questionable skill/feel than toolsy wings with questionable skill/feel (evidence: Harrison Barnes was drafted before Andre Drummond), even though bigs have such an easier path to usefulness. It doesn’t make sense to me that Andrew Wiggins can show worrisome skill deficiencies and still get picked #1 overall in the same world where DeAndre Jordan slides to round 2. And the reasons for Capela sliding sound especially dubious (he was bad at all-star practices, let’s value that more than playing for an actual professional team in a real sample of games). Maybe Capela never becomes anything but at 25th overall there’s no way it’s anything other than a great gamble.

 

[Blacken]

Agreed on Capela, and a few folks I know are kicking themselves that their teams didn't take him when they could.

 

[Silent Chief]

Thank you for linking that Demakis character.  He's got some interesting stuff to say.  He's certainly high on Smart.

 

[jose melendez]

What are the Rockets giving up that we could possibly want?  A draft pick in the late 20s?  No thanks.

 

[bowiac]

I checked and am told there's not much to this Rockets-Rondo idea. The Rockets don't especially like him generally, and think he's a bad fit for them in particular (ball dominant SG). Add in Ainge's pricetag, and a deal there is very unlikely.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Capela looks like a guy who doesn't have a clue as to what he's doing on a basketball court in the 20-minute clip I saw of him agaiant inferior competition to what he will be facing. It's not surprising he sucked out loud when competing agaiant the best if his age group. Great athlete, nice late round flier.....certainly wouldn't count on him making it.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

Capela looks like a guy who doesn't have a clue as to what he's doing on a basketball court in the 20-minute clip I saw of him agaiant inferior competition to what he will be facing. It's not surprising he sucked out loud when competing agaiant the best if his age group. Great athlete, nice late round flier.....certainly wouldn't count on him making it.

Javale McGee?

 

[Blacken]

Capela is smarter than Javale.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Javale McGee?

That's So JaVale is a special kinda player. It would take more than 20 minutes of footage for me to put THAT tag on anyone. Defensively maybe Faverani level footwork with an 18-year old Gerald Green's understanding of the game. He got away with it at that level of competition to a degree since he was soooo much more athletic than anyone on the floor. This is why I put more stock in Hoops Summit since against similarly athletic players he got destroyed.

He's years and years away from seeing significant action at the NBA level. He's a long-term flier for 2018.

 

[bowiac]

I do so love that DraftExpress highlight music. Makes everyone look like a superstud. His strengths and weaknesses from 2 years ago make him sound like Josh Smith:
 

Strengths:
-Tremendous physical attributes
-Great frame
-Long arms
-Huge hands
-Terrific athlete
-Excellent timing as a rebounder. Goes after every loose ball with purpose
-Very quick first step
-Very good finisher around the rim
-Great potential defensively

Weaknesses:
-Hasn't accepted who he is yet as a player. Thinks he's a small forward
-Falls in love with his jumper, which is extremely streaky
-Average feel for the game
-Makes unforced errors
-Bad body language. Goes after his teammates

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That could be pretty close to Andray Blatche's too.....especially some of those weeknesses.

 

[moondog80]

https://twitter.com/tspence26/status/500931306599886848
 
Derrick Williams and Ben McLemore would be an underwhelming return.
 
 
 
 

 

[Mloaf71]

https://twitter.com/tspence26/status/500931306599886848
 
Derrick Williams and Ben McLemore would be an underwhelming return.
 
 
 
 

 
Plus a 2017 First rounder?
 
http://www.prosportstransactions.com/basketball/DraftTrades/Future/Kings.htm

 

[TomRicardo]

https://twitter.com/tspence26/status/500931306599886848
 
Derrick Williams and Ben McLemore would be an underwhelming return.
 
 
 
 

 
Also would not even work cap wise.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
Also would not even work cap wise.

 
The tweet says "deal includes", so I doubt that's the extent of the deal. But even if it were, the Kings has a couple of trade exceptions they could use to make that work. 

 

[TomRicardo]

 
The tweet says "deal includes", so I doubt that's the extent of the deal. But even if it were, the Kings has a couple of trade exceptions they could use to make that work. 

 
None of their trade exceptions within 100,000 of Rondo's salary.
 
TPE absorbs a single contract.
 
Edit - TPE as we refer to it is known as a non simultaneous trade.  You are basically completed a trade you made within the following year.  The TPE acts as the salary (+100,000) you are able to take on to complete the trade.  You can not add TPEs since they are from different trades.  You can however add two or more salaries together that you are onboarding to fill out a single TPE.

 

[zenter]

You know what the Celts need most of all? More wings.
 
EDIT: oops... Submitted before I was done.
 
I was going to add that we should also get JET.
 
Seriously: McLemore and Williams were the basis of a Rondo trade rumor before, so this rumor only says "they're still talking about this same deal that they were talking about before."
 
The devil here is in the details. A couple limiting factors that did not exist around the draft - C's are now over their roster limit with an abundance of midsized wings and PFs, and a Kings draft pick isn't likely to be all that valuable. I don't imagine the Kings are willing to offer much more than those guys and a pick.

 

[Devizier]

That deal blows, but it's pretty clear the Celtics will be tanking this year / I will not be watching.

 

[bowiac]

McLemore had an underwhelming rookie season but he has some upside. Derrick Williams can form a killer bust tandem with Evan Turner. I don't think we can expect a better package for 1 year of a guy who plays a position that's in pretty low demand. I wouldn't do it without some kind of pick attached though.

I'm probably lower on Rondo than anyone else around, but I'd probably pass on a deal like this without a pick attached. It's not that it's unfair, but rather it's such a low return that I'd rather hold Rondo and hope someone else's PG goes down and they decide Rondo cures what ails them. Maybe the Pelicans - they like to make bad trades.

 

[wutang112878]

Lets assume they get the salaries to match and the King's 2017 1st is included.  Williams is really basically a salary filler expiring, so almost like an exemption.  The real return is McLemore & the pick.  McLemore looked promising coming out and even if we assume last year was just an awful shooting year I'm think his absolute ceiling is a 3rd best player on a championship team but more likely your 4th.  On the pick: Sacremento has been in the top 10 the past few years but if they add Rondo they will get better in the short term, so at best you are probably looking at something in the 10-14 range.
 
I have sort of resigned myself into the belief that Rondo wouldnt net you that much in terms of assets but I was hoping it would be a little more than this.  It would give them 3 2015 1sts so it would be great draft flexibility next year, so there is that.  As much as I want to critique this deal I really cant find a scenario where our return would be significantly better.
 
What would be interesting next year is our starting backcourt.  Smart at PG and McLemore at the 2 would have Smart at his more natural NBA position, so that is also a positive and it would provide a better environment for him to develop than trying to play him along side Rondo.  Thats another significant advantage that we should consider because we are in full 'asset development' mode so in that regard this is a step in the right direction.
 
I just have to say it again, I do wish we could do a little better but we probably cant.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I'm probably lower on Rondo than anyone else around, but I'd probably pass on a deal like this without a pick attached. It's not that it's unfair, but rather it's such a low return that I'd rather hold Rondo and hope someone else's PG goes down and they decide Rondo cures what ails them. Maybe the Pelicans - they like to make bad trades.

 
Funny, I was thinking that the low return is worth it because their only hope for getting more is a mid-season PG injury for a team in contention.  But, yeah, a one year Rondo rental just isn't going to fetch a lot in return, especially given the dearth of suitors.  
 
As for McLemore, he's still just 21 and tremendously athletic with the tools to be a plus defender, but for a guy who's jumper was touted as a thing of beauty, it sure missed a lot last year.  It's hard to believe he was the same guy who had a 63.3 TS% as a freshman at Kansas.  He shot 32% from three last year on 297 attempts.  At Kansas, he was at 42% on 174 attempts.  If we split the difference and put him down as 37% shooter, I think it's worth it.  FWIW, I looked at some guards who were highly regarded shooters coming out of college to see if I could find a guy who struggled as much as McLemore did in his rookie year then regained his stroke, but in my small sample size (Korver, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Wesley Matthews, Kyrie Irving, Ben Gordon, Hayward, Bradley Beal, Mike Miller, even Jimmer),  they were all above 37% as rookies.  Not exactly encouraging, even if McLemore is the only one of those guys, other than Beal, who came out after his freshman year.  

 

[wutang112878]

Its just an example that guys can overcome a brutal start, not proof that McLemore will do it, but Lance Stephenson.  His first 2 years were brutal and then suddenly the light went on in the 3rd

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I was wondering specifically about highly regarded three-point shooters coming out of college then bricking it up their rookie seasons.  Lance Stephenson shot 22% on a mere 73 attempts at Cincy, so he doesn't really fit the bill.
 
I know we had some discussion in one of the Marcus Smart threads about guys who were poor shooters in college but became good shooters in the NBA, and there were a couple of examples (Trevor Ariza is one that comes to mind).  

 

[Auger34]

How valuable are the Kings future 1st round picks going to be? With Rondo added to that team it's probably not going to be top 10, more along the 12-15 range. If that's the best you can get for Rondo I would hold onto him for the time being and see if some team has some injuries or another team gets desperate and overpays. No point in trading him now when the return is sort of underwhelming.
Another thing is that most of the Celtics assets are pretty similar with this trade. With Bradley, Smart, Young, and McLemore would all of them be able to get the PT to develop like we hope they would? I guess you could play Young more at the 3 and then Bradley as sort of a hybrid back-up, then all of them would get decent minutes

 

[bowiac]

How valuable are the Kings future 1st round picks going to be? With Rondo added to that team it's probably not going to be top 10, more along the 12-15 range. If that's the best you can get for Rondo I would hold onto him for the time being and see if some team has some injuries or another team gets desperate and overpays. No point in trading him now when the return is sort of underwhelming.

I think Sacramento has mostly taken a step backwards so far this offseason, so even if they add Rondo, that still looks like a top 10 pick to me. If you don't think Isaiah Thomas was the best player on that team however, then your mileage may vary.
 
The return is pretty likely to be underwhelming regardless. Regardless of whether Rondo is good or not, it seems pretty apparent that there's not a big market for him.
 
What kind of trade do people expect to get? And from who?

 

[Brickowski]

I'm not a McLemore fan.  IMHO James Young will be a better NBA player. Hopefully now that Rondo is rumored to be in play, other GMs will give Danny a call.

 

[Sprowl]

I can see why Sacramento, which has young talent that hasn't reached full potential, would be interested in Rondo, who can make players better. Rondo to Cousins could be a deadly combination.

 

[moly99]

Hopefully now that Rondo is rumored to be in play, other GMs will give Danny a call.

Hasn't Rondo been available for well over a year?

I'm not sure what people are expecting here. There is little market for Rondo, he is coming off a major injury, his contract is expiring and he has made it public he is determined to get a full max contract.

If Danny can get some promising young guys and/or picks he should go for it.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I was wondering specifically about highly regarded three-point shooters coming out of college then bricking it up their rookie seasons.  Lance Stephenson shot 22% on a mere 73 attempts at Cincy, so he doesn't really fit the bill.
 
I know we had some discussion in one of the Marcus Smart threads about guys who were poor shooters in college but became good shooters in the NBA, and there were a couple of examples (Trevor Ariza is one that comes to mind).

I think the discussion got broken out into this thread: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/84205-is-shooting-a-developed-skill-or-an-innate-talent/.

Sactown Royalty did an end of year review n McLemore here: http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2014/5/21/5738774/2013-14-season-in-review-ben-mclemore. He ended up shooting over 40% from the corners but was atrocious everywhere else. The simplest explanation is that he didn't realize how much harder it is to hit that shot, particularly with NBA defenders.

There's probably still hope for McLemore, at least on the offensive end.

 

[Brickowski]

Hasn't Rondo been available for well over a year?

 

Well, with Ainge, every player is available.
 
It's one thing for a player to be available, it's another when a fait accomplis is close and the asset is about to go off the market.

 

[BigMike]

Hasn't Rondo been available for well over a year?

I'm not sure what people are expecting here. There is little market for Rondo, he is coming off a major injury, his contract is expiring and he has made it public he is determined to get a full max contract.

If Danny can get some promising young guys and/or picks he should go for it.

 
 
That's the way I see it. Ainge has been actively looking to move him probably since before the injury.  And I think he had a flashing for sale over his head the entire month of June leading to the draft.   Seems like Sac, and maybe the Knicks are the only team that has shown any sort of interest.
 
Getting a 21 year old top 10 pick who certainly flashed last season, and whatever else you might get seems like a really good value for a guy you have made it clear you don't plan to resign, and who the league certainly has viewed his availability with a collective yawn.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I'm trying to envision a scenario where the Celtics can extract more than McLemore/future pick for one year of Rondo and I can't think of one. With Smart on board, the lack of a long-term contract, and weak demand, Ainge literally couldn't have less leverage.

 
I'm with you. 
 
Holding onto Rondo hoping some contender losses their starting PG during the season, as some have suggested, isn't a smart way to operate. Not only will that team not be less willing to give up contributing young bench pieces that Danny may be interested in, but matching Rondo's salary in a deal presents another challenge. His contract isn't unfair, but what combo of players will a contending team be willing to give up that's more promising than McLemore and an unprotected '17 pick? An offer may be out there, but I'm not seeing a match right now. 
 
If they're going to trade Rondo and not extend him, I'm not sure were we get a better offer from. 

 

[wutang112878]

I was wondering specifically about highly regarded three-point shooters coming out of college then bricking it up their rookie seasons.  Lance Stephenson shot 22% on a mere 73 attempts at Cincy, so he doesn't really fit the bill.
 
I know we had some discussion in one of the Marcus Smart threads about guys who were poor shooters in college but became good shooters in the NBA, and there were a couple of examples (Trevor Ariza is one that comes to mind).  

 
Gotcha.  Ok, I didnt get to see McLemore this season but I thought what made him a great prospect was his combination of athleticism and shooting.  Whereas most of the guys on your list dont have that type of potential, so in that regard I think he could be a bit less of a 3pt shooter than those guys but still be as good of a player as them.
 
Now if you want some specific example of 2s who really struggled at shooting 3s but went on to have good careers: Alan Houston and JR Smith.  Neither of them were really 3pt specialist guys but they are sort of in the mold of what I would expect McLemore to be as a player.  Houston isnt the best comp in terms of mold but he had a handful of seasons where he took 300+ 3s and for his career shot 40% and his first year his 3ptFG% was ~30%  Smith is probably a decent comp for McLemore in terms of athleticism and shooting ability.  His rookie year he took almost 300 3s and his 3ptFG% was 29% and for his career he is 37% but for years he had absolutely putrid shot selection.  So if McLemore can be more than just a 3pt specialist then there is some hope.

 

[zenter]

Let's say some contenders starting PG gets hurt midseason, and they want Rondo. How much could you really expect to get back? You will need to make the salaries match which is tricky when dealing with a contender- they won't want to deal rotation players; and any picks are likely to be late first round. I'm skeptical that a midseason trade, which is pretty rare anyways, would return much.

 
True, and I (very reluctantly) think trading him now is probably best. However, assuming he's willing to take a 4-year deal, Rondo can still be S&T'd after the season, which gives the C's some flexibility with teams on the cusp and/or clearing space next year. It also lets them decide how well the new roster jells (if at all).

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

The Rondo trade situation feels like we're a suspect in the middle of a plea bargain negotiation on murder charges.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

McLemore had an underwhelming rookie season but he has some upside. Derrick Williams can form a killer bust tandem with Evan Turner. I don't think we can expect a better package for 1 year of a guy who plays a position that's in pretty low demand. I wouldn't do it without some kind of pick attached though.

Ainge's hands are completely tied here. I can't imagine any team giving up even a future first-rounder for a one-year rental at this point in time. As the season progresses maybe an injury will occur where a contender could use an experienced ball handler and passer. Until then Rondo's trade value is pretty much nil.

Edit: Didn't read that last page sorry for repeating what many others have said.

 

[zenter]

The folks who reported this are pretty strongly walking it back, saying they didn't have anything.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-rondo-rumors-and-the-trade-process/