The Nation's Tears: Pink Stripes

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

https://twitter.com/CockyTomBrady/status/648226613893701632
 
If this is one of you guys, kudos.  

 

[Norm loves Vera]

 
Patriots locker post game sunday...

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He also had a gimpy ankle.

If that ankle was fine, and if Gronk's ankle was fine a few years later, the Pats have two more championships.

 
Logan Mankins has had a fine career, and was really awesome for the Pats, but it's a real shame that his worst two games as a professional were in the two SBs against the Giants. The second one I'll give him somewhat a pass on as he was playing on a bad knee, but the first one....my God. He was the biggest single reason for the loss. He couldn't do anything with Tuck and the Giants just destroyed the middle of the line.
 

 

[rodderick]

 
Logan Mankins has had a fine career, and was really awesome for the Pats, but it's a real shame that his worst two games as a professional were in the two SBs against the Giants. The second one I'll give him somewhat a pass on as he was playing on a bad knee, but the first one....my God. He was the biggest single reason for the loss. He couldn't do anything with Tuck and the Giants just destroyed the middle of the line.
 

 
Yup. Mankins is lucky the average fan doesn't know the game enough to properly evaluate line play, if he were a skill position player there would be a large portion of the fanbase who would (unfairly) revile him. Shit, there are fans who don't like Welker because of that drop against the Giants, Mankins had at least 5 plays worse than that one in the 2008 game alone.
 
Looking at the video with every Brady pass play in the Super Bowl the thing that struck me is Branch's drop on the first play of the last drive of Super Bowl XLVI. He had nothing but grass in front of him. Get the ball to the Giants 40 at that point and there's a reasonable chance that Brady could get them in the endzone. Drops killed the offense down the stretch in that game. 

 

[DJnVa]

 
Yup. Mankins is lucky the average fan doesn't know the game enough to properly evaluate line play, if he were a skill position player there would be a large portion of the fanbase who would (unfairly) revile him.

 

If the average fan could properly evaluate line play, it wouldn't then be unfair to revile him (for the game you're talking about) would it?

 

[rodderick]

 
If the average fan could properly evaluate line play, it wouldn't then be unfair to revile him (for the game you're talking about) would it?

 
I think it would. He stunk up the joint on the two most important games he played as a Patriot, but as a whole he was still a great player with the team for a long time who put his long term health on the line for the Pats. But I'm saying this as one of those fans who can't evaluate line play properly (mostly go by what people I trust tell me when breaking down film), so I don't know if my take is the most accurate.

 

[Granite Sox]

Sent from my brother Rich Pole Upside...

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Look forward to the 0-4 version after Vick lights them up for 35 (wishful thinking never hurt anyone).

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Sent from my brother Rich Pole Upside...

LOL. Well done.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

The new mic'd up video on BB is fun as hell (on Showtime's Inside the NFL). 
 
BB gets so much respect from everyone, from star-struck Gus Bradley to all the judges. The fact that a lot of oppo fans will throw up in their mouths makes it even more delicious. 
 
No video link anywhere, but one quote from a line judge who whispers into BB's ears Corleone style: "No bullsh*t, you guys are/run the best sidelines in this league," to which BB quickly replies with "appreciate it... hope we don't screw it up."
 
Later in the segment, BB lays into McCourty saying "you're a better player than that!" for not finishing the play on the Jags fumble, allowing what turns out to be a missed TO opportunity. Of course, McC atones himself with a terrific INT afterwards. 
 
Truly lucky we are as Pats fans.

 

[tims4wins]

Inside the NFL re-runs on NFLN on Wednesday nights, FYI (and a couple more times Thursday-Saturday)

 

[H78]

I watched this last week. One thing that stood out to me was just how badly the O line was abused in 2007. I remember it being bad, obviously, but with a little more clarity it's way worse than I remembered. I think Brady did about as well as he could have given the circumstances.

This is what stuck out to me as well. Also, I forgot how good of a game Hernandez had in the second Giants Super Bowl. What a dope.

 

[GregHarris]

I posted in the other thread about Inside the NFL and miked up BB.  The best quote was when he was talking to Walt Coleman about the weather.  Walt says something like, "great weather, you guys control that right?".  BB laughs and replies "Yeah, but we only get blamed when it's bad".

 

[Leather]

Remember a couple years ago when there was a thread on here asking whether the game had passed Belichick by?

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Remember a couple years ago when there was a thread on here asking whether the game had passed Belichick by?

I don't. Hope some can dig it up. On mobile so I can't now.

We should revisit it in honor of the 1 year anniversary of THE PATRIOTS JUST ARENT GOOD ANYMORE!!!!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Sorry if this is elsewhere: The Day The Media Buried Brady
 

Once, in a simpler time, it was possible in punditry to fire off a scalding hot take about an athlete -- a take that would later prove to be hastily crafted and perhaps completely, shockingly wrong -- and watch it disappear, more or less, into the ether. In order for it to come back and haunt you (say, a year later), it would require a local busybody marching down to the public library and digging through microfilm for an hour until your foolishness was dragged, mercilessly, back into the light. But even then, there was no way to widely disseminate it, no opportunity to point out to others just how badly that prediction went awry, other than perhaps standing on a street corner, braying like a madman. But now?
The Internet, well ... the Internet is where the game done changed, as kids like to say. And 365 days later, there is much we wish we could erase but can't.

 
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13776027/the-day-buried-patriots-qb-tom-brady-nfl

 

[Number45forever]

Shocking thing is that ESPN ran that story.  I figured the second half of the story would be commentary on how Brady turned things around once he started cheating.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Shocking thing is that ESPN ran that story.  I figured the second half of the story would be commentary on how Brady turned things around once he started cheating.

They can edit it later like they did for Mike Reiss' column!

 

[rodderick]

Sorry if this is elsewhere: The Day The Media Buried Brady
 
 
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13776027/the-day-buried-patriots-qb-tom-brady-nfl

 
What really annoyed me about how the media crushed Brady after that game was the glee with which people proclaimed him done. There wasn't the hint of nostalgic sadness that accompanies every "Manning is a shell of himself and that's a shame" piece, just a rush to joke about about it and say people should just accept he couldn't play anymore.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Shocking thing is that ESPN ran that story.  I figured the second half of the story would be commentary on how Brady turned things around once he started cheating.

 
There might be a company mandate in place. SAS, of all people, blathered on this morning about how it was time for the NFL to drop it.
 
Meanwhile, I had asked Chad Fin about all this for his chat on the .com. Here's Chad's response:
 

There’s a heavy sense of skepticism/paranoia among Patriots fans as to how ESPN, in particular, has covered the team and the various “gates.” As a media watchdog, do you see specific approaches in that coverage that justifies that concern? Could ESPN, for instance, carry out an “agenda” against a team for this long without one member of its staff airing the network’s dirty laundry? – E5 Yaz
Well, there’s evidence of an agenda on ESPN’s part, sure. The skepticism is justified. Most egregiously, they never corrected Chris Mortensen’s erroneous report about 11 of the 12 footballs in the first half of the AFC Championship Game being underinflated by 2 PSI, the story that turned a minor “huh, that’s weird” story into the ridiculous summer-long drama that it became. Then you see how they keep using Bill Polian — a guy with an agenda if there ever was one; I was in the press box once when he was the Colts GM, Welker got hurt, and he blurted, “Break his —– leg!” — to comment on this while Tedy Bruschi was scarcely seen. Or how Mike Reiss’s innocuous piece reacting to the investigative piece connecting Spygate and Deflategate was edited. Or how Simmons was unceremoniously dumped after taking another bull’s-eye shot at Goodell. I don’t think it’s fair to make a blanket statement that ESPN is biased against the Patriots, because there are some very good people who work there who have comported themselves well in this — starting with Reiss, but Adam Schefter too. But it’s very, very clear that the nerve center of the organization feels some obligation to the NFL to protect it as a business partner.

 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/qa-with-the-boston-globe-columnist-chad-finn/

 

[tims4wins]

Another anniversary to celebrate:
 
https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/649279098024513536
 
On this date 14 years ago, Tom Brady made his 1st career start for an injured Drew Bledsoe in a 44-13 win over Indy.

 

[tims4wins]

Not sure where else to put this, but regarding the whole undefeated (non-)discussion, 538 has an article out today on the chances of the Pats going 16-0. And of course, their conclusion is:
 

Let’s get this out of the way: It’s extremely improbable that New England will win each of its remaining 13 games.

 
Obviously. There is a very, very small chance of this team (or any team) going 16-0.
 
But then they get to the %s... and they say that they calculate a 4.4% chance of this team going 16-0. So basically somewhere between a 1 in 20 and 1-25 chance (1 in 22.7 to be exact)
 
Is it me, or is that % surprisingly HIGH? When 538 said it was extremely improbable, I figured they would come up with a figure of < 0.5%.

 

[Leather]

It does seem high. 
 
I was fiddling around with this thought the other day, and while it's incredibly crude, I came up with:
 
If we assume that, with the "any given Sunday" factor, the highest winning probability a team can be said to an upcoming game is 80%, then this year's Pats odds would be about 5.5% to run the table.   If we bump a single one of those games down to 50%, my calculations say they have a 3.2% chance. 
 
So, 4.4% seems like they really overstated the dominance of this year's team vis a vis the competition.

 

[tims4wins]

Right, and I am pretty sure they only gave the Pats something like a 47% or 49% chance to win in Denver, so I don't see how they get to 4.4%. Whatever. I personally think it is more probably than not

 

[Kevin Youkulele]

It does seem high. 
 
I was fiddling around with this thought the other day, and while it's incredibly crude, I came up with:
 
If we assume that, with the "any given Sunday" factor, the highest winning probability a team can be said to an upcoming game is 80%, then this year's Pats odds would be about 5.5% to run the table.   If we bump a single one of those games down to 50%, my calculations say they have a 3.2% chance. 
 
So, 4.4% seems like they really overstated the dominance of this year's team vis a vis the competition.

Yes.  Put another way, 4.4% corresponds to a per-game win probability of 78.64%.   Of course there are some harder games, so really they must also be saying that some games the pats are extraordinarily unlikely to lose, and most of them have a substantial lopsidedness.  
 
Also, I think 80% as the maximum due to the any given Sunday factor might be low.  I haven't done rigorous stats for a while but it seems inconsistent with the frequency of 13 and 14 win seasons, where the 2 or 3 losses were not necessarily flukes.  It's probably fine for an average team but that is not what the Pats are.  In particular, they do not make nearly as many of the kind of mistakes that could let an otherwise inferior team steal a game.  
 
If you assume that 7 games have a 90% win probability each, then the other 6 have a 52.5% geometric mean win probability.  So the 538 number might not be that outlandish.  

 

[dbn]

Calculating the % chance that the Patriots go 16-0 is like trying to prove Brady probably deflated balls even though you don't know either the starting or end air pressure.
 
Assigning a % chance of victory for any given game is arbitrary. Since it's easy to do, and rational people can probably do a not-horrible job at guessing at it, it is totally worth doing as a fun exercise, but the resulting numbers need to be understood in an "order of magnitude" way; and even then, other considerations (e.g., there are good teams every year but rarely is there a year that one wins 16 regular-season games) should affect that understanding.

 

[nattysez]

Inside the NFL re-runs on NFLN on Wednesday nights, FYI (and a couple more times Thursday-Saturday)

 
Thanks for this - I just re-watched it.  Two interesting tidbits;
 
(1)  BB was much more rah-rah on the sidelines than you see on most of the 3 Games to Glory films and elsewhere.  He's not jacked and pumped, but he is more demonstratively positive than I thought.
 
(2)  He went out of his way to specifically compliment Cannon when he was coming off the field after TDs.  Given that Cannon seems to be generally considered as the weak link on the o-line, I found BB's strong praise interesting.  It's almost like he knows Cannon needs to improve, so he's trying to use positive reinforcement to help him out.   

 

[RedOctober3829]

Thanks for this - I just re-watched it.  Two interesting tidbits;
 
(1)  BB was much more rah-rah on the sidelines than you see on most of the 3 Games to Glory films and elsewhere.  He's not jacked and pumped, but he is more demonstratively positive than I thought.
 
(2)  He went out of his way to specifically compliment Cannon when he was coming off the field after TDs.  Given that Cannon seems to be generally considered as the weak link on the o-line, I found BB's strong praise interesting.  It's almost like he knows Cannon needs to improve, so he's trying to use positive reinforcement to help him out.

Also, LOL Kyle Williams of Buffalo saying "we got beat by a team last week that we shouldn't have lost to."

 

[djbayko]

Here is an online version for people who don't have access:

http://youtu.be/fv7_Wt_c37I

Edit: wrong link

 

[jacklamabe65]

When you see how they keep using Bill Polian — a guy with an agenda if there ever was one; I was in the press box once when he was the Colts GM, Welker got hurt, and he blurted, “Break his —– leg!” — to comment on this while Tedy Bruschi was scarcely seen.
 

 
This is absolutely stunning. I can't believe more people on the board haven't reacted to this. Wow.

 

[rodderick]

 
This is absolutely stunning. I can't believe more people on the board haven't reacted to this. Wow.

The PFW In Progress guys, especially Fred Kirsch, have commented on Polian's terrible behavior in the press box for years. Seems like wishing for guys to get hurt was routine.

 

[Granite Sox]

Pretty sure Polian was talking about Doug Flutie scampering around and not Welker, but the point remains he was on record screaming for a broken leg.
 
That Showtime segment is excellent.
 
"Four times." ... "What?"... "Four times.  Run it four times."

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Like the old idiom goes, if you can't beat 'em, hope they get injured. Or something like that.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Suck it NFL, Tom Brady Named AFC Offensive Player of the Month
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000546613/article/tom-brady-julio-jones-lead-players-of-the-month

 

[Ed Hillel]

Suck it NFL, Tom Brady Named AFC Offensive Player of the Month
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000546613/article/tom-brady-julio-jones-lead-players-of-the-month

And Ghost got the ST award. Obstructors unite!

 

[tims4wins]

We were all lied to growing up. Cheaters ALWAYS win.

 

[nothumb]

Yes.  Put another way, 4.4% corresponds to a per-game win probability of 78.64%.   Of course there are some harder games, so really they must also be saying that some games the pats are extraordinarily unlikely to lose, and most of them have a substantial lopsidedness.  
 
Also, I think 80% as the maximum due to the any given Sunday factor might be low.  I haven't done rigorous stats for a while but it seems inconsistent with the frequency of 13 and 14 win seasons, where the 2 or 3 losses were not necessarily flukes.  It's probably fine for an average team but that is not what the Pats are.  In particular, they do not make nearly as many of the kind of mistakes that could let an otherwise inferior team steal a game.  
 
If you assume that 7 games have a 90% win probability each, then the other 6 have a 52.5% geometric mean win probability.  So the 538 number might not be that outlandish.  

An 11.5 point favorite has around an 80% chance of winning according to the betting markets (imprecise, yes, but just to give a general sense). According to 538 themselves, the Pats were around a 91% favorite over the Jags last week. So they will not be a 90% favorite very often... I am guessing they will not open another game this year -14.

Not sure how they are getting to 4.4%, which would come out to roughly a 78% chance on average each week. Their week to week odds are posted online if someone cares to look it up.

Edit: not sure why I restated the underlying average from your post (and redid the calcs) other than the fact that I'm an idiot who would rather do arithmetic than focus on my job.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I'll reserve judgement on the idiot comment until I know what your job is.

 

[amarshal2]

Yes.  Put another way, 4.4% corresponds to a per-game win probability of 78.64%.   Of course there are some harder games, so really they must also be saying that some games the pats are extraordinarily unlikely to lose, and most of them have a substantial lopsidedness.  
 
Also, I think 80% as the maximum due to the any given Sunday factor might be low.  I haven't done rigorous stats for a while but it seems inconsistent with the frequency of 13 and 14 win seasons, where the 2 or 3 losses were not necessarily flukes.  It's probably fine for an average team but that is not what the Pats are.  In particular, they do not make nearly as many of the kind of mistakes that could let an otherwise inferior team steal a game.  
 
If you assume that 7 games have a 90% win probability each, then the other 6 have a 52.5% geometric mean win probability.  So the 538 number might not be that outlandish.  

 
If they haven't done the math wrong and everything reflects their underlying ELO ratings then I think ~4% is too low.  Looking at their ELO predicted spreads they have the Pats as a 4.5 point favorite over Indy and 2.5 point favorite over Dallas (Elo doesn't know about Romo, Dez, or the Blount force trauma inflicted on Indy the past 3 times they played).  I expect both of those spreads to be in the range of 7-10 points.  I also think when the time comes the Patriots will be favored over Denver, but not by much, so this is probably irrelevant.
 
Essentially, Elo is predicting 12.6 wins when I'm guessing most people would take the over right now.  If you change the expected win total from 12.6 to, say, 13.5-14, the odds of going 16-0 have to jump dramatically.  
 
Edit: Here are the ELO ratings: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Man that Jeff Lynne is talented! Musician and math wiz!

 

[Leather]

Man that Jeff Lynne is talented! Musician and math wiz!

 
All this math makes my brain turn to stone.  Don't bring me down!

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Man that Jeff Lynne is talented! Musician and math wiz!

 
Worst. Wilbury. Ever.

 

[Marciano490]

My secretary just came in and we randomly started talking football.  She informed me that the Patriots won the SB on a technicality.  I said what technicality - having the higher score?  And she said no, that Lynch was supposed to run.  Then she got into how overrated we are.  I said we just won the SB, we couldn't possibly be overrated.  Then the cheating stuff.  I asked her team.  Steelers.  Oh, so you root for a rapist and a dog fighter.  Ben's not a rapist.  Oh, no?  No, not at all.  Then we started talking Odell Beckham, who she said is no Jerry Rice - her all-time favorite.  Right, I say, he didn't use stick'em like Jerry.  More blank stares.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Find a new secretary.

 

[Koufax]

I love that Malcolm Butler's interception was a technicality.  What in her mind is real football?

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

How long has she been your secretary, that you:
 
just out-of-the-blue started talking football today;
 
didnt know that her team is the Steelers. (or did you ask her, already knowing the answer).
 
I would think she might have been a tad more vocal over the past 8 months......

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I love that Malcolm Butler's interception was a technicality.  What in her mind is real football?

A catch with the ball pressed against the receiver's helmet, just like they drew it up on the white board.....
 
(that's my thing when I coach youth soccer and lax:  anytime we have a horrendously broken or lucky play that pays off with a goal, I shout out "Just like we drew it up on the white board!/Just like we ran it in practice!")

 

[Marciano490]

How long has she been your secretary, that you:
 
just out-of-the-blue started talking football today;
 
didnt know that her team is the Steelers. (or did you ask her, already knowing the answer).
 
I would think she might have been a tad more vocal over the past 8 months......

 
Like 6 months.  She wanted to enter me in an intra-firm look alike contest, and I jokingly asked if it was for Tom Brady and that started it.

 

[pokey_reese]

I forgot how huge JR Redmond was on that last STL Super Bowl drive.

 

[Tony C]

This is a nation's tears thread, so I want to just unleash a bit of boastful braggadacio including taking premature satisfaction in this year's start because...if not here...where? If not now...when?
 
We've just won the Super Bowl. Made sweeter by virtue of being written off after the KC game by the usual stupid talking heads. Made even sweeter by virtue of putting to rest the "they haven't won since spygate" meme. Made sweetest by confirming the Pats as the best team of the 21st century.
 
Tom Brady just destroyed Roger Goodell. Made sweeter by virtue how much -- though certainly not all -- of the media has since bought into the backlash against the NFL as having overreached tremendously. Made even sweeter by the 'us against the world' focus it has given to this year (at least from a fan's perspective). It would be made sweetest if it led to RG's dismissal....not quite yet, but can still hope it'll be part of that indictment.  
 
This season has started...better than can be hoped (and, yes, this is the way too early/this is a jinx part). Made sweeter by Brady looking, quite seriously, better than he ever has. Made even sweeter by the team's achilles heel -- the OL -- by good coaching/talent eye -- transformed into a strength at the same time that the NFL as a whole is subject to cries about how offensive linemen are too hard to develop. Made sweetest by a series of cheap pick ups -- Dion Lewis, Bostic, Akiem -- that sure as hell look like the sorts of minor but important moves made by a GM who is playing chess while others are playing checkers.
 
I know that last bit is premature. But wtf, it doesn't get any better than right now. I know a loss or god forbid two losses will send all of us into the usual tailspin of worry that is everyday life of an NFL fan. So why not take realize there's no such thing as a jinx and that, most importantly, take stock that we are lucky to follow the best, smartest, most well run* team in professional sports and then say: fuck yeah, sometimes it's worth taking a moment to take in how great it is. 
 
A nation's tears, indeed...love it!
 
*Just one small sample: during the Mic'd up segment from last week's Jags game, the ref comes over to BB and says you have the most well run/orderly sideline in the league, bar none....later followed by a shot of BB barking at players to stay away from the line. Obviously minor as all hell...but indicative of how every detail is covered.