Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bankshot1, Jul 18, 2018.
Woj via sports radio
Celts in talks with Smart's agent for 4/48-52 type deal
Here's his tweet following up on that:
You guys were right. I was wrong.
One of the few Ainge moves where I disagree.
That's a lot of money. I don't love it.
It's more years than I would have expected, but the AAV is right on. I thought he'd want to get back in free agency next summer or in 2020, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Boston probably willing to pay more in total dollars to secure more years. It's a hedge against Kyrie walking next summer.
Interesting it happens right after Kawhi saga ends.
It might be a coincidence, or it could be that Boston wanted to keep options open for using Smart in a potential Kawhi trade scenario.
If Smart signs I wonder how much longer things drag with the Rockets and Capela. You'd have to think they'd get something done quickly after this as well.
I’m 100% on board with this signing at these rates. He’s not a scorer, but if he were, he’d be twice the price. On this team, especially in 2018-9, he doesn’t need to be a scorer, but this team will really appreciate all the other things he does, on both ends of the floor.
4/48 is in line with what I would have expected him to get from the Celtics. I think in 2 years, it will look like a much better deal than it does right now. As much as he has significant offensive shortcomings, he is a lot more valuable to a team like the Celtics that have championship aspirations and don’t need him to be a scoring option off the bench. I think the defense and other intangibles that he brings to this team make this worthwhile.
Don't know how I feel about this to be honest.
I love Smart but his "intangibles" get waaay overrated at times but at the same time I love what he brings...usually.
I also hate him for punching mirrors over side chicks and chucking up the worst shots imaginable and making utterly atrocious turnovers at the worst possible times and actively throwing away points.
I dunno, maybe I'm just in a bad mood.
Brad desperately needs to tell him to fuck off with the turnovers and horrific shots that lead to easy rebounds.
If this gives them Kyrie insurance, is Rozier expendable in the right deal?
Beyond just how he fits, he's a nearly-unique talent therefore hard to replace. I'm ok if this means no Rozier for the long term. (Although my hope is that he plays this year in Boston) Rozier is good, and getting better. But I think his skills exist in more players.
We have Rozier’s RFA rights next summer. That’s a better hedge.
I think at this point we have a pretty good idea who Smart is. He's a linebacker/special teams player with limited scoring potential. IMO in a year or so, a 4/48 type deal for a pretty good defensive player might look pretty reasonable, and that AAV might also give the Celts flexibility in fashioning trades in the future. And its a KI insurance policy. Strategically I think its money well spent.
If Kyrie walks you could argue they'd want to keep both Rozier and Smart. There are enough back-court minutes for both guys and the skill sets don't overlap in a way that causes redundancies. It's probably not the best use of the cap to keep both, but I could see the logic in doing it, at least for a year.
I know he drives us all nuts however this is a fair deal for a player who possesses a very valuable and unique skill set. I have long wondered how Ainge et al see him as a player and whether we do, in fact, overrate Smart's contributions to the team. However his usage coupled with this report, if true, suggests that the Celtics have data that supports the idea that Smart is more than just the sum of his stats.
Fine with this. It's probably a tradeable contract even as is, and if he ever somehow improves his shooting (I know, I know), it's a massively plus contract. The team's internal valuations clearly suggest to them that he provides a lot of value if they're willing to do this with the tax looming, and those guys have earned the benefit of the doubt many times over when it comes to evaluating NBA talent.
You know you’ve managed the cap extremely well when Smart at 4/48 is the biggest thing we can complain about. It’s one year longer than I’d prefer but it won’t be a “bad” contract. We’ll just have to see how the Kyrie situation plays out.
Smart's defense gives them a better chance to beat Golden State. He's more valuable than Morris, who would most likely lose the majority of his minutes to Hayward.
It's the kind of decision teams make when they view themselves as legitimate contenders. Assuming the deal happens, it will be interesting to see how the team and player options are distributed.
Because of the Tatum extension? So much can/does change in 3 years that I'd be happy to have the prime of a good player locked up at what will likely be a value contract at that time.
This is a key component for me. The Celtics don't have the sort of mid-range contracts that are good trade fodder (because Ainge has done so well grabbing bargain deals and drafting real talent), but this is one such contract, and becomes even better once the cap jumps up again a la the Crowder and Bradley contracts.
The kinds of teams that would want Smart to help them win now are the kinds of teams that literally could not sign him within the rules of the salary cap—now those teams have an avenue to acquire him.
Trade stuff aside, he is also critical to winning a title this year, and my prognostications from a few years back of Smart being the only player on the roster at the time who would be on the next championship Celtics team must come true.
Reminder that Smart is on record as saying that his is worth “more than $12-14 million” per year. Those Woj numbers are at least in the ballpark. Anyway they can afford this contract plus keeping Kyrie and Rozier? I don't see how that adds up.
I expect his agent is Happy, but not sure how long the player will think it is Smart.
92 Eric Gordon HOU $12,943,020 $13,500,375 $14,057,730
93 Kenneth Faried DEN $12,921,348 $13,764,045
94 Marcin Gortat WAS $12,782,609 $13,565,218
95 Cody Zeller CHO $12,584,270 $13,528,090 $14,471,910 $15,415,730
96 Miles Plumlee ATL $12,500,000 $12,500,000 $12,500,000
97 Nikola Mirotic NOP $12,500,000 $12,500,000
98 Zach Randolph SAC $12,307,692 $11,692,308
99 Nikola Vucevic ORL $12,250,000 $12,750,000
100 Solomon Hill NOP $12,236,535 $12,752,928 $13,258,781
101 Wilson Chandler DEN $12,016,854 $12,800,562
102 Derrick Favors UTA $12,000,000
103 Jeremy Lin BRK $12,000,000 $12,516,746
104 Kemba Walker CHO $12,000,000 $12,000,000
105 Austin Rivers
Basically around the 100th best paid guy in the league. When you consider Draft Picks, guys on the Vet Deals, ring chasers who willingly choose smaller contracts, That seems about right to me. Around 3-4th highest paid on a team. Not necessarily one of the 3-4 most talented on a team.
Who on that list would you rather have? 12 Million per is pretty pedestrian money nowadays. Kemba who is ridiculously cheap, but most everyone is eh.
This is fantastic news. I have always thought if you can get him at 12.5 per for four years you jump on it. Bargain deal in a couple years, and a fair deal now.
Let's assume $12MM over four years. In terms of deals signed this offseason, it puts him behind Will Barton, ahead of Kyle Anderson and in line with Jusuf Nurkic. Comparing him to last year's signings, he's below Joe Ingles, above Tony Snell and Dion Waiters and in line with Patty Mills.
That's an odd mix of players to be compared to, but value-wise that makes a ton of sense. In comparison to those players he's getting a fair contract.
Plus, as I have mentioned before, DA had already offered Marcus basically this contract so there was no way Marcus would have taken less than that. Frankly, there's no way DA would have offered less than that. So for a multi-year contract, 4/$48M is probably the floor that could be doable at this point.
Didn't most of us think that Avery Bradley's extension was an overpay at the time? I think the Cs will be fine with this. And I predict that the fourth year will be more valuable than the third assuming no injuries.
I’m ok with this as long as he has a realistic understanding of where he ranks as a shooter compared to the other Celtics on the floor at any given moment. So therefore I’m not sure I’m ok with this, even though there’s much I love about his game. But tradeable piece down the road, yup.
Part of what makes Smart as great as he is at the things he is great at is his apparent unflinching belief that he is one of if not the best players on the floor at all times. Anyone expecting him to stop shooting his shots - because it seems like he is sure the next one will fall and, if not, the one after that - is going to be sorely disappointed.
In sports there are "winners" and "losers" I hate to be so simple but there is something to this.
Robert Horry has 7 rings and Sir Charles has none. Of course I could go on.
IMHO I see Smart as Dennis Johnson 2.0, good for at least 2 rings.
The rate seems about right, with the way that valuable role players are priced.
I am, however, officially worried about Kyrie after next season
That’s well put. Nevertheless I reserve the right to complain about his shot selection in game threads.
There's no way they keep all 3. The path forward from here is quite clear imo. They look to move Rozier all year, probably ending up not doing it because of low return. If it ever seems like Kyrie is disgruntled or looking to bolt, he gets moved. If both make it through the season on the team, they try to sign Kyrie, and match reasonable offers for Rozier if Kyrie walks. If Kyrie is back, Rozier probably walks for nothing.
The only thing that would throw a wrench in all this is if Rozier makes a gigantic leap this coming season.
Agreed with all of that. I would only add that it's going to be hard for Rozier to make a leap with Kyrie and Hayward both healthy. There's only so many shots to go around to add to his value.
Smart has the most unique skills of anyone on the team, good to have him next year where scoring isn't an issue. Not sure I want him for 4 years, and hope i doesn't affect signing JB JT or KI long term. Probably affects signing TR long term, and I like him, but I have accepted that either him or KI are leaving eventually. It looks like a lot of money but compared to other contracts it may end up a bargain. Just want him to be more shot selective.
Avery Bradley contract 2.0 (which turned out great).
I like Marcus and his fire and think the team would really miss him. He can capably defend 4-5 positions for God's sake and he's a total team guy.
Happy for the man who had a brutal childhood to be able to set up his family for many generations based on his hard work and mental toughness. Welcome Back, Marcus!
I hope this happens. I see Smart as a great fit on the Celtics because:
The Celtics have a lot of scoring, most notably Kyrie, Hayward, and Tatum
Smart is an awful shooter but not an offensive zero, because he can pass, run the pick and roll, etc
Game changing defender who comes up big in key moments
As a 6'4" PG who can hold his own defensively after most switches, he gives the Celtics an option against teams that try to get their wing scrorer switched onto Kyrie or Terry
In other words, Smart is a fit here because he brings a unique skill set compared to the rest of the guys on the team, so he gives the team as a whole more options and capabilities.
I also think $12 million or whatever is a very moveable salary from a trade perspective.
Marcus makes us nuts at times but seemingly all of his teammates value his contributions tremendously. When the Greek Chorus from within is as strong as it is with Smart, I think that’s instructive.
I like the deal and like that he’s staying.
While he can be unbelievably frustrating, it's really hard for me to imagine the Celtics winning a championship without Marcus Smart doing peak Marcus Smart catalyst things (like breaking James Harden into a million pieces in the final minute of a game). I consider him an historically great competitor (sometimes to his/the team's detriment) and his toughness is ++, so all in all, I think re-signing him is a win for everyone involved.
How much is MLE going up the next 3 years? This is slightly above what it’s supposed to be right? If so, really nice contract. Smart is our glue guy and is needed in order to do what we all want to be seen done.
This move has a bit of "they need a guy who can guard Steph during the NBA Finals" vibe. Toronto is about to become quite a bit better, and Philly could simply improve organically as Simmons/Embiid progress. Re-signing Smart was the likely the only feasible method they had to go "all in" for 2018-19, so count me as pleasantly surprised.
It won't be anywhere near 12.5 million. 4% increase in salary cap each year seems to be a fairly accurate # that is used. Thus, MLE also increases 4%. That would put it at 8.64 mill this year, then 8.99, 9.35, 9.72
Cap increases are going to be greater than 4% the next couple years, per existing projections. As of now the 2019-2020 cap is expected to be $109MM, with the non-taxpayer MLE being $9.246MM.
Projections two years out carry less certainty, but the cap is expected to jump to $116MM in 2020-21. Starting MLE would be $9.8MMM.
Either way it is a modest premium over MLE, which is very fair.
I thought the early reports were that the cap would go to 109 next year, and 116 the year after?
Edit: Cheech beat me to it.
How many of those contracts were these teams tying to dump within 2 years? Paying above MLE for complementary players has historically been a losing bet. I wonder how long before Marcus gains back his contact weight while shooting 28% from 3 as Heinsohn is calling him "fat" again? This isn't a risk free deal.
Well, Rozier already made his leap. It's akin to Reggie Jackson the year RWB was out prior to him returning to a more limited role before leaving for FA. I despise the term "know what you have" as most evaluators already do know but in Rozier's case he showed it last year so he isn't a secret.
The timing of this deal tells me that Ainge's offer to SA included Kyrie. It's the only player who makes sense for salaries to make a deal work. For this one year there will be a minutes crunch but beginning next season you won't have both Kyrie and Rozier on the team so Smart will have a larger role than he will this year.
We've only seen something for 4 years and between 46 and 52. What is important too are what the years really are. Are they all guaranteed? Are there player or team options. I would think Smart would want 2 years locked and then an opt-out option to hit the market again.
If the Celtics are letting him save face by going with their offer from last year, I expect they'd want 4 years of control in return.
This. If this deal gets done, it’s a huge relief going into the season. Just hope Marcus doesn’t balk at “only” $12M per year and blow it up.
This. My thoughts exactly.