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Smart is Happy: 4/$52 Deal

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bankshot1, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    The issue always comes down to "market".

    I'm as big of a Marcus guy as you'll find, but it's not about "is this guy a top five player on our team?". It's not wrong to use that POV to put things in context, and I appreciate your take here. But in the end, defense-mostly guys tend to make much less money. That's the context which many of those questioning the price are considering.

    I'm perfectly fine with the deal.
     
  2. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    3,599
    He's now the only guy making over 7 million and under 20 million per year on the team. His contract definitely provides some flexibility should an attractive trade option arise.

    In the meantime, I'll enjoy watching him pester the shit out of opposing teams while likely torpedoing my last small sliver of hope that he'll ever become even a borderline competent shooter.
     
  3. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    Neither comp is good IMO
     
  4. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. Why is everyone comparing Marcus Smart to other basketball players when it is clearly more appropriate to determine which Decepticon is his closest facsimile?
     
  5. 4 6 3 DP

    4 6 3 DP Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    My only comfort in this deal is that the last signing like this he made that I hated was Avery Bradley and that contract looked good quickly.

    If he continues to be a liability on the offensive end because he refuses to stop shooting, this is an overpay, if they can get him to play defense and limit his shots, this is a fair deal for a player they clearly value.
     
  6. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    1,757
    It feels like it might be a bit high, but I'm happy that he'll be on the team. Rozier's likely to leave one way or another soon-ish, and adding good players through FA is likely to get tricky over the next few years, so getting him locked up now seems like a solid move. Especially since I'm not paying the luxury tax bill in 2021.
     
  7. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Is this really true though? When a team is looking for contracts to make deals work they typically aren't looking for 3-4 years of an annual 8-figure deal to make numbers work.
     
  8. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    I think for this specific roster it is, in that without Smart's contract a deal for a star player on a star contract would have to include Horford, Hayward or Kyrie. For a team looking to rebuild that would prefer a combo of Jaylen/Jayson/picks, Smart's contract is one more way you can get there.
     
  9. jimv

    jimv Member SoSH Member

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    Let's not forget DJ was also finals MVP in 79. I like Marcus but he's not at that level. Disagree with the ML comp - he wouldn't see the floor in the last 5 minutes of important games

    I'm with the others who feel this is a positive move, better for Smart to focus his competitiveness on the opponent rather than earning a new contract
     
  10. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Rozier's primary skills are 3-point shooting (including creating his own shot) and guard defense. The return of Hayward and the development of Brown/Tatum make the first one less important, and the latter just isn't that valuable in the league when not combined with at least 1-3 switchability, preferably 1-4.

    His playmaking isn't great, and it's just as likely that Brown and Tatum will develop there as it is Rozier will.
     
  11. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Not to sidetrack the thread, but we should probably start leaving Jayson out of these discussions. I don't think the Celtics would move him even if AD became available. Jaylen and Smart would likely be part of that package though.
     
  12. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I wasn't lamenting it, just stating that it's likely. And given that, having Smart locked up helps, because someone will have to play minutes at guard.
     
  13. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I'll be a bit sad when he's gone too; Terry is likeable as hell.
     
  14. bankshot1

    bankshot1 Member SoSH Member

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    Smart is more a Patrick Chung or Nink type player, or if you need a hoops comp, Quinn Buckner.
     
  15. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    You know, 538 has player comps available for Marcus Smart. I know people have legitimate issues with their projection system, but it's probably still a little bit better than the wild-assed guesses from a message board.

    Here are his top 10 comps, FWIW:

    1. Larry Hughes
    2. Lionel Hollins
    3. Aaron McKie
    4. Mike Miller
    5. Jay Humphries
    6. Willie Anderson
    7. Victor Oladipo
    8. Fat Lever
    9. Iman Shumpert
    10. Dion Waiters

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/marcus-smart/
     
  16. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Based on the contents of that list, the bolded assumption may not be entirely accurate.
     
  17. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not so sure. We're talking about a 25 year-old 28/11 guy with elite defensive skills. Nobody is off limits when you're talking about a guy like that.
     
  18. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    The Jaysonator is.
     
  19. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I'm very happy to wager up to $100K at 3-1 odds that Jayson Tatum will not be traded in the next 3 years (to keep a reasonable time-frame).

    Edit: the reasoning here is NOT that Tatum is likely to ever be as good as AD. It's that Tatum for AD would be about as close to 100 cents on the dollar as a team ever gets when trading a superstar, once you factor in age, untapped development, and team control.

    NBA stars never really end up trading for anything close to 100 cents, simply because age, contract length, and lack of leverage are always key factors. The examples of this in the past 10 years are too numerous to need rehashing at this point. The most recent was a guy of the same age who, when healthy, was probably better than AD.
     
    #119 lovegtm, Jul 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2018
  20. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Count me in with HRB re this contract. I just don't see him worth that kind of money for the role he plays. Here is hoping he improves his 3 point shot and lowers his TO%, which has increased 3% this past season to 18.6% despite his usage only going up .6%. I guess it's not a huge problem but I'm not sure he's the guy you want playing PG for 30 minutes a night. It's only a problem if he becomes the primary PG.
     
  21. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Hughes, Miller, Humphries, Oladipo, Lever, and Waiters seem like terrible comps for one reason or another.

    I would think in terms of player type a list should include guys like Clownshoes, Nate Macmillan, Ronnie Brewer, Doug Christie .. but only Macmillan of that list had point skills, which is why I go with him, despite his (in actuality) significant differences with Smart.
     
  22. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Turns out the performance incentives in the final contract are "don't be fat."
     
  23. RorschachsMask

    RorschachsMask Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Last year his shot from 16-23 feet was by far a career high at 37%, if he can get his 3PT% to 35, 13 million is a steal.

    He also had by far his best season finishing at the rim. Considering even with him shooting 30% from 3 and the high turnovers that they were still better on offense with him in than not, if he cleans up his turnovers and hits a few more open shots this will be a fantastic deal.
     
  24. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    You have to give HRB and the others some time to grieve. This summer has destroyed all their hopes and dreams.
     
  25. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, this is where I come out too. Does feel like a bit of an overpay and I would have been fine had he come back on the QO, but I guess we don't know what other offers might have been out there (formally or informally). Plus, as others have said, bringing Smart back on the QO would likely have guaranteed his departure next season when they will very likely need his services more than this coming season (due to the departures of Rozier, Kyrie, or both).
     
  26. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Sure, it's obvious that Tatum will not be traded because there are only a handful or less players worth trading him for since he's a soon-to-be elite player on a rookie deal but that wasn't my point. Anthony Davis isn't getting traded any time soon either. Right now, he has 3 years left on his deal and has expressed no issues with remaining in New Orleans. Most of the disgruntled star situations occur with less time remaining on their contracts and other negative factors that depress their value so they are not analogous to Anthony Davis' current situation. If prime AD with 3 years on his contract quietly became available this very moment, I don't think anyone on the Celtics would be off limits for Danny, not even Tatum. Others may disagree.
     
  27. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    9,681
    I’ll concede that ML isn’t a great comp, but maintain it’s closer than DJ. Also ML played plenty of important minutes in the 1981 title run, including closing out game 7 vs Philly.
     
  28. GoDa

    GoDa lurker

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    488
    He's signed for the prime of his career. He's happy. I'm happy. Glad to have him back!

    His shooting % are even trending up for 3 straight years! If he could just be a little smarter about his shot selection - he could probably keep that trend going.
     
  29. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Aside from dumping Morris, they can also get under the luxury tax threshold by trading Yabusele and waiving Nader (either for a $450k hit this year or $65k for the next 7 if they pick up his non-guaranteed 2020-21 option and the stretch him). Given the long odds of Yabu becoming a useful player and Nader's general terribleness, that's my preferred route.
     
  30. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Edit: Double
     
  31. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

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    When an athlete is sick do they just automatically send them to the hospital to be safe? Hope he's ok.
     
  32. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, this is probably easier than getting value for Morris, with the exception that JakeRae mentioned of Denver. He makes a lot of sense for Denver this year, and the Celtics would almost certainly not face the Nuggets in the finals.
     
  33. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    6,732
    Is there a way to see splits for a person's shooting pct (or other stats) based on who he is playing with? It may end up carving the pie into sample sizes too small to be worthy, but I wonder how many of his "ill-advised" shots come during those times when he was on the court with some combo of Larkin, Rozier, Baynes, MaMo, Monroe, Theis, etc. How does his usage and stats change when he plays mostly with the starting 5? Considering that they will start the season with 5 guys who can create and score at high levels, a number that the Celts haven't had in years, perhaps Smart's stats will improve. We have to remember that for much of the season:
    • there was no Kyrie
    • there was no Hayward (pretty much 99.999%)
    • JB hadn't morphed into playoff JB
    • Scary Terry was just scary Terry
    • JT hadn't taken it to the next level (I like to consider his arc as "stuffed by LBJ" to "posterizing LBJ"
     
  34. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    Even if this isn't something publicly available, you can bet the Celtics keep track of it, plus the qualitative feedback they get from Stevens and the coaching staff. I think this contract proves that the Celtics front office thinks Smart will be the same player he's been the past few years at a minimum, with a chance to improve and/or be used slightly more sparingly in situations that maximize his good qualities and minimize his bad ones.
     
  35. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    As much as I thought the QO made fiscal sense, the Smart deal helps insure against Kyrie 2019 FA:
    1. If Kyrie's knee continues to degenerate they avoid maxing KI out
    2. If Kyrie is lights out and decides to take his talents to MSG

    Also, suspect Danny checked in with Terry's agent over the last few weeks to see his level of interest/price in extending.
     
    #135 benhogan, Jul 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2018
  36. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    2,871
    I think the only teams with a big enough exception to currently fit Morris are Denver, Detroit, Portland, Cleveland and Charlotte. Sacramento could fit him into cap space and OKC should have one big enough after Carmelo trade as well.

    I would try to move Morris now, but more because he likely won't get enough minutes than ducking the tax.

    The NBA rules on this are so dumb, that you don't get charged for what you've paid of a players salary, but just the salaries that end the season on your roster.

    The Celtics could move Morris right now, or in December or on trade deadline day, and he'd count zero towards computing their total salaries counting towards the tax.

    It's a strange loophole.
     
  37. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I'm not grieving at all as Smart was always going to be on this years team once the RFA money went elsewhere. We are a better team right now with him on the second unit than without him.....which would have still occurring without committing an additional $46m to his deal which is the basis for my issues with the deal. My concerns were from a business standpoint of being stuck with an awful contract should be go all Sully or Yabu on us which he has showed signs being capable to do so.

    I don't understand this talk of Smart being Kyrie insurance as he's never going to be a full-time starting PG. If Kyrie leaves our starting PG is going to be Rozier...….the Kyrie insurance is that Rozier was not traded this summer.
     
  38. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    2,558
    If Kyrie leaves, Hayward is healthy, and Tatum or Brown develop more as creators, I could see them forgoing a traditional PG altogether.
     
  39. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    That would place someone in awkward situations of defending opponents PG's as well as someone in unnatural positions of advancing the ball upcourt vs 1's. I don't see this happening at all. We saw how challenging it was during those months prior to acquiring Isaiah a few years to get into our offensive sets without the ballhandler being able to get to his spots with his dribble in the frontcourt to properly initiate the offense.
     
  40. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    5,097
    Agreed. If Kyrie leaves next year, they bring back Rozier to start. Signing Smart long-term softens the potential Kyrie leaving blow. Rozier + Marcus PG combo still competes for Championships.

    This core 7 rotation (Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Kyrie, Horford, Rozier, Smart) is special. I suspect Danny wants as much continuity as possible going forward. OR he would have just gone mid-evil on Marcus and made him sign the QO and risked losing 2 of the core 7 next off-season. Now Danny should be confident that he will only lose 1 of those core 7.

    In future years Danny can cost-effectively fill out the rest of the roster with:
    1. Semi, RobWill, Bird
    2. the many 1st round draft picks coming up
    3. underappreciated Euro players (Theis, Larkin, Wanamaker)
    4. cheapening, yet effective BIGs (Baynes)
    5. young, undrafted free agents
    6. G-League all-stars
    7. purchase the occasional 2nd rounder
    8. AND veteran ring chasers.
     
    #140 benhogan, Jul 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2018
  41. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    12,011
    nbawowy!
     
  42. bullterrier0

    bullterrier0 lurker

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  43. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    30,577
    Mormons keep track of everything.
     
  44. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,115
  45. Pxer

    Pxer Member SoSH Member

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    I didn't realize that. I think it's very likely MaMo doesn't get moved until mid-season if this is the case.
     
  46. nocode51

    nocode51 Member SoSH Member

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    Do we still have our mid-evil exception or did Danny use it already?
     
  47. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    There is no reason to rush moving MaMo for luxury tax purposes until the trade deadline. As was mentioned upthread, there are other ways to get below the tax unless Team MaMo really forces Danny's hand to move him (they really should in a contract year and limited role).
     
  48. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    They still have the full non-taxpayer MLE as well as the BAE available.
    Sportrac is pretty good at keeping this all up to date
    https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/
     
  49. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    With their current payroll they cannot use the full non-taxpayer MLE because doing so would bring them well over the "apron," which is around $129.8 million this year and they are currently at around $126.7 million. They could trade Morris to free up room but as others have indicated they would likely do that to get under the luxury tax, not to allow them to sign anyone else. I think you are basically looking at what the team is going to look like on opening day at this point.
     
  50. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, I hear Lancelot is still available.
     

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