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Smart is Happy: 4/$52 Deal

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bankshot1, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Smart's coach and his teammates love him because he grinds it out on defense and brings toughness. I'm guessing that those teammates feel similarly about Morris, which is why I think Yabu and Nader are history.

    I liked the Yabusele pick when made but it hasn't worked out particularly well, and Yabu should have value to rebuilding teams. As for the $5.3M and the $3.38M exceptions, they can use either one after the deadline for the next Greg Monroe (i.e. as injury insurance), but I don't see any reason to use them before then unless Boogie backs out of his deal with GS.
     
  2. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Our 6 thru 9 could start on many teams......if anything MaMo will be moved to alleviate a logjam not to go over the tax to pay for a non-upgrade. Unless a blockbuster trade happens or Team MaMo demands a trade this will be the core team moving forward.
     
  3. nocode51

    nocode51 Member SoSH Member

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    Sure he's good, but not I worry about team chemistry issues.
     
  4. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Definitely. I think he's more of a Spurs-type guy.
     
  5. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Just keep him away from Delonte.
     
  6. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I'm having a hard time thinking that Rozier is more of a core part of the roster than, say, Baynes. There's exactly one big in your list (Horford, though Brown can play PF), but 4 guards. Our top 4 guards are not all "core players", nearly by definition.

    Rozier is a great rotation piece, especially at $3M + RFA, but not so special that we ought to be worried about losing him. More Roziers can be found and drafted.

    I don't love the price we paid for Smart, given the tax implications for our roster flexibility, but I do love keeping him, and it ain't my money. Besides, for all we know, Tommy Heinsohn voluntarily offered to pay some of Smart's salary just so he could continue to watch and root for him.
     
  7. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Thats a big part of this. If we can all see the Tax Crunch coming then Danny and the Owners and their accountants certainly can see it and are aware of Smarts signing and its implications.
    If thats a fair statement then you have to assume the owners are like "Do it, we will pay the tax when we need to".

    Maybe when they begin writing checks with a boat load of zeroes that will change, but right now they seem aware and prepared to pay to keep the team (at least key members) together.
     
  8. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    I love me some Baynes, and was really glad that Danny brought him back. I'm one of the few people around here that believes he will start next season(especially when playing Embiid, Drummond, Valuciunis, Howard, etc). I also love Theis. But they are only here for another year if they continue on cheap contracts.

    The context for the "Core 7" was young players that the Celtics have signed or will be signed to larger multi-year deals. So Kyrie will be signed at seasons end to a max deal. If not, then Danny will sign Rozier to a multi-year deal. Thus retaining continuity and only losing 1 player from that Core 7.

    Five of the Core 7 will be on the floor in late/tight games.

    I guess they could lose Kyrie and Rozier at seasons end and still be fine, but I'm just trying to read Celtic tea leaves.

    and Yes, Danny's Core7 is the answer to the Warriors Hampton Five
     
    #158 benhogan, Jul 20, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2018
  9. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I still expect Boston to extend Rozier this October so that if Kyrie leaves they're covered. And if he stays just trade Rozier to one of free agency's losers looking for a shiny toy to show their fans.
     
  10. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    What price would you extend him at that Rozier would accept? I suppose Terry has to price in the fact that his stock may go down somewhat as he goes back to backing up Kyrie, but I expect the Celtics to rest Kyrie, Hayward, and Horford a lot this year, so that may be less of a worry for him.

    Smart was a lot easier to price in some ways, since he already is what he is.
     
  11. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    The cap is going up next year and Rozier will have a better shot at a good offer sheet than Smart had. Smart is a specialty player who has much more value to a contender than to a rebuilding team. Rozier is flashier and has more appeal to teams looking for offense.
     
  12. sezwho

    sezwho Member SoSH Member

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    Could they? I love our 6-9 but I'm not sure Smart, Baynes, Rozier, MaMo would really be starters on many teams. Maybe some cellar dwellers, but perhaps I'm underestimating them or the overestimating the rosters of the rest of the league.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I'm sure they could all start on some teams, but if you had those 4 starting on the same team, it would be a shit show.
     
  14. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    You're overestimating rosters around the league. Those guys would be starters on most of the Eastern Conference playoff teams, depending what positions those teams had stars at. i.e. Baynes would start for Washington or Milwaukee, but not Philly, and so on
     
  15. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think they will "forego a traditional PG altogether", which is extreme and would create its own problems. But I do see them moving in that direction given the talent they have and benefit on the defensive end.
     
  16. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Baynes and Rozier were starters last year on a team that went to the Eastern Conference finals.
     
  17. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    1. Baynes started 69 games for the Celtics last year.
    2. Smart averaged 30mins/gm (starters minutes)
    3. Rozier started every playoff game
    4. MaMo started 40% of the games he played in last year and was the 2nd leading scorer in pts/min
     
  18. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    I think that the difference in starting the offense with an outstanding handler and a functional handler has almost completely disappeared. 99% of the time, a guy like Rozier or Smart initiating offense on a team with multiple scoring options is perfectly sufficient. Kyrie is different of course, because he creates shots for himself and draws a swarm because of it. But the days of "we need an elite ballhandler to get the ball over half-court" are nearing an end. Avery Bradley was suboptimal at that, but any of the guys who played point for the Cs last year were fine. And that included a guy on a two-way contract, a guy making the minimum, and a guy making 16th pick money.
     
  19. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Interestingly, a lot of the actions with Kyrie and IT both start with them off the ball, and then move into the play. I was probably a bit extreme saying there would be no PG at all, but because of the defensive benefits (as mentioned by Eddie Jurak), and the way their offense runs and the direction the league is heading, I think there will be some out of the box stuff going on.

    All of this is only possible if Hayward is back at full strength, and Tatum and Brown develop as primary threats with the ball. I think most would project Tatum to get there in the near future.
     
  20. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    What benhogan posted below. The second units of most teams are nothing like what the Celtics have. I can't think of one who has 4 players on their second unit capable of playing starter minutes any given night on championship level teams like the Celtics do.

    Of course Baynes isn't ever going to be a full time 30+ mpg guy but as mentioned started 69 games for the EC 1-seed last year. Smart has never averaged less than 27 mpg since he's been in the league. Rozier will certainly be signed to a large deal next year to be somebodies starting PG while Morris started 175 consecutive games over the previous 3 seasons prior to becoming a Celtic.


     
  21. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Price is Dombo's problem, not Danny's.

    I kind of agree with lovegtm's thinking about the lessening role of the classic 6'2" PG that brings the ball up to start the offense. Similar to the classic 7' post up Center. They seem to be slowly fading away.

    Give me 5 strong/athletic wings between 6'6"-6'10" that can shoot/defend and there is your modern day team.

    I look forward to seeing Marcus (plays bigger than his 6'4"), Jaylen, Tatum, Gordon, Horford on the floor together to see how something like that works on defense.
     
    #171 benhogan, Jul 20, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2018
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    There is a vast difference between having a "classic" PG with having 5 wings without a player with the skillset to best position them to succeed. Even without Kyrie for much of last season.....out of Smart's top 20 5-man units covering 820 minutes he played a grand total of 42 minutes without one of Kyrie or Rozier on the floor as the primary ballhandler. Unless one is injured I don't envision many, if any, non-garbage time minutes without one of Kyrie or Rozier on the floor with Smart.
     
  23. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Sure, the player bringing it up in this scenario might not be Smart. But a 6-4 to 6-6 guard with a decent handle and the ability to hit spot-up 3s could work, and those guys aren't incredibly rare or expensive. Think taller Rozier with less off the dribble 3 and shot creation.

    My main point is that I don't think the team will overpay Rozier if Kyrie walks, because there are other ways to handle the situation while remaining elite and not giving up strengths. I guess you can think of this as me brainstorming the Celtics' BATNA in the scenario where Kyrie leaves and they're negotiating with Terry.
     
  24. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Doesn't that pretty much describe Smart who Brad rarely used in this situation last year even with Kyrie out and the opportunity to do so? You say these guys aren't rare yet failed to name a single one.

    It isn't an overpayment to pay Rozier $16-20m to be your 32-35 mpg starting PG especially after paying your 20-24 mpg reserve guard $13m AAV.
     
    #174 HomeRunBaker, Jul 20, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2018
  25. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Especially considering they’re capped out anyway if Horford sticks around and an extended Rozier would be more attractive as the salary in a star trade than Smart. If Kyrie leaves, they’re snap extending Rozier.
     
  26. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Just eyeballing it going through standings from last year

    Rozier would likely be a starter on these teams - DET, NYK, BRK, CHI, ORL, ATL, SAS, MIN, LAC, SAC, DAL, PHO

    So, yes, it is generally cellar dwellars. I am too high to go through the rest of the BOS players and teams. I imagine Smart and Morris have a similar "start on 6-10 teams" thing going on. Baynes is probably less likely to start on many teams
     
  27. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I wasn't going to exhaustively go through the whole league, but just on the Celtics' roster this year, Wanamaker fits that profile, and likely was signed precisely because of his physical profile combined with the ability to bring the ball up. Smart also was used in that role in the playoffs after Larkin got hurt, when Rozier was sitting.

    I'm not arguing, by any stretch, that this will be what the Celtics do this year. They have Kyrie and Rozier. But there are alternatives if they end up with a team where the primary shot creators are wings, and it's highly likely the team is internally mulling those alternatives to keep in the back pocket.
     
  28. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    HRB accurately points out that Stevens used some combination of "pure" PG to bring the ball upcourt most of the season. The minutes numbers support it. Brad's prior comments "ball-handler, big, everyone else is a wing" support it also.

    That said, you also point out that Smart was used in the same role when there weren't a lot of options. I didn't see a ton of dropoff (warning: eyes comment, anecdotal). There were extremely brief periods during the season where Brown or Tatum was bringing the ball up.

    I agree that they won't likely go all wings and take their chances with starting the offense with anyone who is a turnover risk while going upcourt. However, guys like Larkin, Wanamaker, and frankly the next Rozier just aren't that fucking hard to come by. I would be flabbergasted if they went long on Rozier unless they know for a fact that Kyrie isn't returning.
     
  29. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    This is the key point, because even if Kyrie isn't returning, there is a number at which Rozier is overpriced, and he may well get offered that number.

    It's tempting to say that the Celtics won't have cap space anyway if Kyrie leaves, but this team has been killing it at the top of the draft. If the Kings or Grizzlies pick turns into yet another max-type player, or someone like Williams gets his shit together, you're going to have even more young guys with huge paydays coming up.
     
  30. Reverend

    Reverend for king and country Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Is Jaylen as Parsival too much of a stretch?
     
  31. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think they signed Smart to be a 20-24 minute guy.
     
  32. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Smart is versatile enough that he can see time in so many different lienup combinations. And yes, there is no way he is only playing 20-24 minutes a night. Especially considering his 4 years in the league he has played between 27 and 30 minutes
     
  33. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    Assuming healthy Kyrie and Gordon, he'll see a dip from the 30ish of the last couple of years. I doubt that he falls to 20-24, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the 25-26 range. They have a lot of quality guys to work in now, even if they move Morris.
     
  34. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    The first regular season game they play with everyone healthy we'll find out. Who sits in this plus-24 scenario? Jaylen? Hayward? Tatum?

    Rozier and MaMo are gonna get their minutes with the second unit too.
     
  35. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Over the course of the year Hayward and Kyrie will be getting a lot of extra rest. Horford will as well, although that doesn't impact Smart's playing time--the team has already said that Al barely practiced last year, in order to keep fresh for the playoffs, and I imagine that will continue.
     
  36. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Chances are the 5 starters will miss an average of like 5-10 games each. MPG is a weird thing. You may not be able to find 27 minutes a night for Marcus Smart if everyone played 82 games a year. That never happens. He'll get his minutes.

    edit: If you add up all the Celtics MPG last year it comes up to around 360 mpg. There are 240 minutes in an actual game. Games played matters and it matters a lot.
     
  37. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I wouldn't be shocked if one of them is gone ( at the deadline if not before). But assuming they both return, and everyone is healthy, I think they will get fewer minutes than Smart.

    Edit: With everyone healthy, they will have a 10 man rotation that doesn't include Williams.

    6 guys in the ballpark of 30 minutes: Irving, Horford, Hayward, Tatum, Brown, Smart
    4 guys in the ballpark of 15 minutes: Rozier, Morris, Baynes, Theis

    Of course it will vary from game to game depending on matchups. Baynes won't see much time in agaisnt teams that don't have a big 5 for example.
     
    #187 Eddie Jurak, Jul 22, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2018
  38. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    Oh, so close. The judges were looking for "alchemy".
     
  39. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I think team chemistry was well chosen. It ain't all about the Grail.
     
  40. nocode51

    nocode51 Member SoSH Member

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    Exactly what I was going for, but damn I wish I had thought to work alchemy into it as well.
     
  41. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    HRB,

    Isnt that to minimize that lack of offense Smart represents? And not necessarily his Ball handling or passing?

    If Half your backcourt sucks at shooting....the other half better be able to knock them down for spacing.

    If the unit was Tatum, Brown, Gordon , Horford and Smart you could still attain that spacing Offensively while being very tough defensively. Last year of course they didnt have Gordon or even a good facsimile of Gordon so they needed Rozier or Kyrie to keep that spacing. I believe Gordons the key.
     
  42. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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  43. mikeot

    mikeot Member SoSH Member

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  44. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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  45. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    In Ryan’s defense I think he’s saying that he thinks advanced defensive metrics are crap and that offensive ones (such as ones that measure how hard people are hitting balls versus their outcomes) have generally proven to be worthwhile. Given how long and how well he’s reported on sports, I’m comfortable trusting ryans judgment here.
     
  46. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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  47. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    Isn't this time time of year when we hear about Smart fixing his jumper, with the accompanying video of his draining a three?
     
  48. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    I so bought into that last year and was so disappointed that I contacted my BBB.
     
  49. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Nothing lately on Smart but there was a good article about Tatum the day before yesterday. It concerned him working out with Kobe and he discussed his off-season effort to put on muscle.
     
  50. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Not necessary.....he already got paid. CTC baby!!
     

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