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Smart is Happy: 4/$52 Deal

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bankshot1, Jul 18, 2018.

  1. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Outside of Rookie contracts, options only exist for the last year of NBA deals. A 4 year deal can only have an option in year 4.

    That said, I wouldn't expect an option here. Ainge is paying a premium this year to lock in value in years 2-4. A 4/48 deal values Smart at $14M/year. A 4/51 deal values him at $15M/year. (These numbers are based on subtracting out the QO rate in year 1 because Smart has nowhere to get an offer from at this point so that's the baseline.) If you turn this into a 3+1 deal, the Celtics would be, essentially, paying $15M/year on the 4/48 deal, with downside risk or $16.5M/year at 4/51. Even as a big Smart booster, I don't think I could justify giving Smart that much money with a player option on the back end. (I think he's worth that much in the abstract, but you don't win championships by paying players what they are worth.)
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I trust the brain trust has figured out how to make this work with the other guys we will need to pay.

    That said, does anyone here have any doubt that there will be a playoff game next season where Smart bricks a 3 on one end that would have iced game, then makes some ridiculous play 15 seconds later on the other end to win it?
     
  3. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Assuming no injuries, is he even going to be in the game at crunch time? Who in the Kyrie/Hayward/Brown group is coming out?
     
  4. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Yes, I can imagine there will be times when Smart is on the floor late in a playoff game. Teams do offense/defense switches, Brown could have 5 fouls, etc.
     
  5. The Big Red Kahuna

    The Big Red Kahuna Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Crunch time for defensive purposes? Any of the above. He’ll have a definitive late game presence.
     
  6. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    I'm surprised there is this much negative sentiment about Smart at about 4 years/about $48 million. Seems like there are a lot of reasons to nail down that deal.
    * If you bring him back at the QO, he'll be mad and will probably be out of here at the end of next year.
    * Sure, he's a "backup," but an extremely versatile one, and more like a sixth man. He exemplifies a lot of heart and grit. If Rob Will oversleeps practice, Smart will be chewing out his butt.
    * On the cap issues: I trust Danny on this. I think he's figured out how he can make the money work. Plus, he has a better sense of the players he thinks will stay long-term, and those that he expects will be gone after next season, and how those decisions will affect the cap.
    * I know there's the "don't bid against yourself" argument, but at this point, Smart appears to be irritated. This has dragged on long enough. He went out there looking for offers, didn't get anything great. Why can't the Celtics make a reasonable offer that's fair to both sides? Smart's given up on his "north of $14 million" by now I imagine.
    * I know the "Smart will improve his shooting" has been a cruel mirage for a few years now. But it's still possible, and if he just gets up to league average, this is a great deal.

    Edit: Meant to add this, as I don't remember seeing it mentioned: We'd be getting him for his age 24, 25, 26 and 27 seasons. That's a positive. He's still a fairly young guy.
     
  7. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I expect them to extend Rozier this fall and then wait to see how the Kyrie situation shakes out. If Irving re-signs then they likely deal Rozier to minimize the tax hit. Especially as they’ll be adding Cam Reddish and Jontay Porter next June.
     
  8. west12

    west12 lurker

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    I feel confident that Brad Stevens can sort that one out IRL. But for the sake of the discussion, wouldn't that depend on the score and the match-up?
     
  9. The Mort Report

    The Mort Report Member SoSH Member

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    Exactly, but this is also where I “worry” about Kyrie’s feelings. If the team is up by 6-8 with a minute to go, Marcus should absolutely play over Kyrie, especially if the opponent has an offensive PG/SG. It’s the right play but how will Kyrie respond to sitting at the end? You would hope he is all about winning, but Who knows what’s going through that dudes head
     
  10. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    It’s basically the same deal that Avery Bradley got, roughly 1/3 over the MLE. There’s another cap jump coming, although not as dramatic as the one that was looming when Boston signed Bradley. But there’s a good shot that in year three this is barely over MLE money.
     
  11. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    Nice.
     
  12. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    what's going on in Kyrie's head? Getting BUCKETS. Heck, its the tagline to his movie...

    Brad will go situational late/tight. a combo Smart/Kyrie at PG in the 4th quarter is awesome.
     
  13. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    Although Smart is an inveterate gunner who lives for Heroball, I think he'll be gunning a little less on a middle-class four-year contract than on a one-year prove-it starvation-diet qualifying offer. Smart is just entering his peak years, and is eminently tradable.

    At USD 6 million, starvation wages aren't what they used to be.

    Tankathon is real Celtics p*rn these days, giving the Celtics #3 and #10, but they think Reddish will go second, and the Celtics will pick Nassir Little at #3.

    :popcorn:
     
  14. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    If Kyrie buys in to that, it would be great.
     
  15. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I just sim'ed lottery twice. SAC came out with the top pick both times
     
  16. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    If necessary I will get Cam Reddish thrown into the Russiagate probe so that he slips to Boston. But I’m going to be optimistic that Reddish floats because someone gets enamoured of Little, Langford, or Doumbouya (the more video I watch of him the more I like him).
     
  17. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    This is a common misconception. Smart isn't a gunner. His usage has never exceeded 20%. His FGA/36 was 8th lowest on the team among players who saw real playing time. The only players below him in that stat were Baynes, Larkin, Theis, Nader, and Ojeleye.

    Smart did attempt the 4th most threes/36, which is likely where this reputation comes from. He takes a lot of threes and some of them are bad shots, but while he is undeniably a very bad shooter, he's doesn't use an excessive number of possessions.

    (I'd also note that Smart's fearlessness may be part of his offensive value in that he shoots just well enough, particularly if uncontested, that his not being afraid to shoot keeps defenses from cheating. In other words, if you have a guard who can't shoot, it's probably better for them to have Smart's approach than that of Simmons.)
     
  18. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Also worth noting that if a bad shooter is going to be a gunner, the 3 point line does the least damage. He forces guys to close out a bit, and the expected value of the possession doesn't go that low, relative to guys who jack bad long 2s (hi, Mook!).

    I also wonder whether (and he'd never admit it) Stevens will subconciously feel a bit more comfortable reining in Smart now that he's not playing for a contract, and whether Smart will also feel the same.
     
  19. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    With the new odds? Buy a lotto ticket, that’s a 1.7% hit.
     
  20. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I would also add that while some of his threes are bad shots in a strict sense (contested or early in the clock), we interpret others as bad simply because he is taking them. While anything is possible, I would be shocked if he didn't have Steven's blessing to take wide open threes when he gets them given that it is, generally speaking, the right basketball play.

    In any event, if this deal gets done, we will get more of the rollercoaster that is the Marcus Smart Experience for years to come. That is, unless HRB is right and Smart's weight increases at a Sandoval-like pace while his outside shooting collapses faster than emerging markets this year.
     
  21. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    I'm hopeful that with all of our offensive weapons back, he'll be able to limit most of his three point attempts to the corners, where he has actually been decent in the past.
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Brad should be able to manage where Smart's shots come from so long as he is on the floor with Kyrie or Rozier to where he isn't the primary ball handler. The problem comes when he's handling the ball initiating the offense which prevents him from being utilized the way Pop did with Bowen.
     
    #72 HomeRunBaker, Jul 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2018
  23. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    next question: Which competitive Western Conference team has a trade exception that can take MaMo?

    We're going to miss him. Another underrated, great pick-up by Danny at the time. He added a mature/veteran nastiness to a team full of 'nice guy' vets (Horford, Kyrie, Gordon). Marcus also added bench scoring and a big wing which helped defend Simmons/Giannis/Lebron types.
     
  24. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think Portland has a $13M one that expires next week but not sure they’re looking to take on any additional salary given their payroll situation.
     
  25. dhellers

    dhellers Member SoSH Member

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    My lying eyes tell me that MSmart chucks it up more when he feels that no one else on the court has the nerve to take a shot.
    With the offensive weapons the Celts will have next season, I am hopeful MSmart will understand that he doesn't need to be The Scorer.

    And I completely believe Smart's claims (whenever he is asked) that "everyone tells me to keep shooting". Do you think Stevens would let him say that if it wasn't true?
     
  26. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    Apparently Ainge and Happy are meeting today:

     
  27. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    Happy was on the XM nba show hosted by Scal this morning. Sounded optimistic, seemed.to imply that there had been more ongoing discussion than people were aware of. Would not tip his hand and call anything imminent, but was expecting a positive discussion today
     
  28. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    Given the dollars being sent out across these league 4/48 is fine with me. Dude pretty much has moments he looks like a 16 million dollar guy and moments he looks like a 6 million guy so this sort of makes.sense
     
  29. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I sure don't hope they ship Morris out for a trade exception. If their goal is to stay under the tax, that excpetion likely goes unused, so Morris would have been dumped for nothing. There are minutes available for him this season, and he provides value to this team. If he is to be moved, I hope it is for a pick or a lottery ticket young
     
  30. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    4/52 done deal per Shams
     
  31. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

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    A little higher than I would have liked. I'm not a big Marcus Smart guy but I still have hope he can work on limiting his mistakes.
     
  32. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I'll be ok with this deal as long as he takes the Tantalizing Sleeper / Late Flier under his wing. The team clearly values Smart and it's in line with comparable deals. Kyrie insurance is now in place so that's good.
     
  33. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    That’s interesting because didn’t we hear from Marcus that there wasn’t?
     
  34. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    Was hoping more 4/46 or 4/48. But what's a few mill, I guess. Now it'll be interesting to see what the other shoes are to drop, re: the roster.
     
  35. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I have a question.
    I hear that Smart should be in/was in to close out games. I witnessed it myself.
    Down or up, Stevens seemed to want him in during the 4th.
    That makes me think he is one of "the 5 best".
    I get that his shooting sucks, but his defense and *intangibles are so good they seem to offset that.
    If he is one of the "5 best", or at the very least you want him on that wall, need him on that wall in the 4th quarter with 5mins to play then dont you simply "want him". Especially for 12-13 million per?

    All that said why couldnt he be a "starter"? I equate him a bit to Dennis Johnson on this team. A guy who makes big plays (mostly defensively) but chips in on offense.

    If DJ was good enough to start back then wouldnt Smart be good enough now?
    Granted you need Tatums, Browns and Kyries for the offensive load (like you needed Bird Mchales and Ainges).

    All that said is Smart a "Starter level" player in the NBA? And if not then why is he considered at least a "Closer level" player.

    Is it because we dont think he could keep up his "5 mins left in the 4th quarter" effort level for longer stretches of the game? Is it because he defers more to an alpha like Kyrie (Today) and Tatum (tomorrow) during that 4th quarter then he does the rest of the game?

    I just cant wrap my head around the idea of him being "a closer" we want on the floor in the 4th (and by extension other important times) , and then being upset that he is making too much money (when its around 12 million).
     
  36. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

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    Context was when asked if this all came together since Kawhi traded. He said no, that there had been discussions prior. This wasnt all since yesterday
     
  37. AimingForYoko

    AimingForYoko Member SoSH Member

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    Bit much but I guess. I'm sure I won't care when he makes a clutch shot. And then go right back to caring when he makes an atrocious turnover that makes me want to drop him into a river. It is what it is.
     
  38. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Denver has lots of sufficiently large exceptions after their recent moves to drop salary. Denver also has just enough space to add Morris without crossing into the tax and has a very real need for a wing.

    OKC will have an exception once the Melo deal is final but I'm not sure if see them wanting to use it.

    Sacramento has cap space.

    Detroit has an exception but I doubt they want to cross into the tax.

    Denver and Sacramento strike me as the most likely options.
     
  39. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    Yep, don't even care at this point. Let's fucking get this season started already!!
     
  40. Light-Tower-Power

    Light-Tower-Power Member SoSH Member

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    I'm just glad that we won't have to play against an angry Marcus.
     
  41. Beomoose

    Beomoose Member SoSH Member

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    Adding to the "pretty happy" chorus here. Watching him drive the other squad out of their dang minds when he's on D is worth every last penny.
    Took the words from my mouth!
     
  42. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    While that’s true, we haven’t seen what Stevens will do in a postseason game when he has Irving and Hayward too.
     
  43. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    That's now two times we've had Smart compared to Dennis Johnson in this thread.

    It's not a good comparison.
     
  44. GreyisGone

    GreyisGone Member SoSH Member

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    More than I thought he’d get but I’ve been convinced the trade value because of his contract size helps a lot in the future.
     
  45. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    This sets up perfectly for a Smart/Brown/filler for AD trade at the deadline :)
     
  46. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    This basically puts Smart in (slightly cheaper than) Ricky Rubio territory. Actually seems right in that context.
     
  47. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    I believe this makes Marcus only the 2nd active Happy Walters client to crack $10 mil per year, surpassing the immortal Iman Shumpert. Besides rookies and minimum types like Wanamaker, Happy's only other deal this summer was Davis Bertans. Big move for Happy.
     
  48. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    Looks like we have a “Happy” Ending.
     
  49. Gash Prex

    Gash Prex Member SoSH Member

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    Seems reasonable - glad to have the whole team back. Doesn't feel like an overpay in this NBA climate.
     
  50. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    You equate Marcus Smart to a Hall of Famer? You are underestimating DJ. DJ was way smarter offensive ballplayer than Smart, made the all-star team with the Celtics, and was first or second all-defense a bunch of times with Boston. Not the same guy.

    Edit: A closer comp is probably ML Carr when he was on the Celtics.
     

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