Price is right

[bsj]

Maybe he should come see you seeing as you're educated enough to read his body language and all.

Yes, 0-10 in his post-season starts. There are a few good starts in that mix (yes some shit shows too) where he was the hard luck loser or got a no-decision. For example, in his one playoff start with the Tigers in 2014, he went 8 innings giving up 2 runs on 5 hits against a potent Orioles lineup. His offense scored one so they lost 2-1.

Not included in his post-season resume, but it might as well be, is his start in a Game 163 back in 2013. He pitched a complete game in Texas allowing just 2 runs on 7 hits, getting the Rays to the Wildcard game and then eventually the ALDS against the Sox. A do or die game and he didn't wilt under the pressure. Is having the playoff patch on his sleeve that big a mental block for him?

Price is a good fucking pitcher. If you run him out there to start a game, he's going to give you a good performance most of the time. He blew it last night and he's had some other poor post-season starts. Doesn't mean he's irreparably damaged moving forward.

The guy moped to the mound to start the game. Zero confidence. No PhD needed to see that.

 

[jon abbey]

The guy moped to the mound to start the game. Zero confidence. No PhD needed to see that.

And then bounced the first pitch against a guy who pretty much always takes a strike.

 

[BaseballJones]

I dont care if he is amazing in long relief. We arent paying him 30 million for long relief. At 30 million he needs to be a shut down starter who cna give us 6+ in the post season.

With Chris Sale on the team, David Price is the team's #2 starter, but they have 5 capable starters. Price has a very shaky track record starting in the postseason, but a very good record relieving in the postseason.

In a 5-game series, Price would get one start and maybe go 6 innings (if all broke right). But in relief, with the days off, he could go three times at 2 innings each and still give you 6 innings.

The point is that he could actually give you the same number of innings in relief as he could starting, in a five-game series where he only gets one start (which is likely given that they have Sale). He's a terrific regular season pitcher so you start him all year long and get 200 innings of 3.50 era. That's hugely valuable. But then turn him into ace reliever and he can give you 6+ innings in a 5-game series - which at this point is far more than he will give you as a starter.

So we're paying him $30 million to be terrific. 200 innings of 3.50 is terrific. And 6 innings of quality relief in a 5-game series is also terrific. Less than 2 innings of crappy starting pitching in a 5-game series is not so terrific.

This isn't actually that hard.

 

[The Filthy One]

I think a part of Price's struggles against New York have to do with his total lack of a breaking pitch. He threw zero breaking pitches yesterday. Same with Rodriguez - zero breaking pitches. Everything is fastball or change/cutter. You have to have absolutely masterful location to get away with that repertoire at 92MPH against the Yankee lineup as a lefty. There's just nothing to get them off balance.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Price's last 21 games, since his awful start at Texas:

21 g, 128.2 ip, 13-2, 2.94 era, 1.02 whip, 9.6 k/9

Dominant.

During his ace stretch he made 6 starts against AL playoff teams and gave up 5.4 R/G

An ace gets it done against good teams in important games.

In any event he is no ace against the Yankees. No doubt about that one

If we get to play Houston i have some hope Price can redeem himself. Hopefully he has pitched his last inning against the Yankees

 

[genoasalami]

Maybe he should come see you seeing as you're educated enough to read his body language and all.

Yes, 0-10 in his post-season starts. There are a few good starts in that mix (yes some shit shows too) where he was the hard luck loser or got a no-decision. For example, in his one playoff start with the Tigers in 2014, he went 8 innings giving up 2 runs on 5 hits against a potent Orioles lineup. His offense scored one so they lost 2-1.

Not included in his post-season resume, but it might as well be, is his start in a Game 163 back in 2013. He pitched a complete game in Texas allowing just 2 runs on 7 hits, getting the Rays to the Wildcard game and then eventually the ALDS against the Sox. A do or die game and he didn't wilt under the pressure. Is having the playoff patch on his sleeve that big a mental block for him?

Price is a good fucking pitcher. If you run him out there to start a game, he's going to give you a good performance most of the time. He blew it last night and he's had some other poor post-season starts. Doesn't mean he's irreparably damaged moving forward.

0-10 isn't a big enough sample size for you? yes, i am educated enough to read his body language as is everyone else in this board....He is anti-Pedro on the mound...He looked like he wanted his blankey last night.

 

[curly2]

So we're paying him $30 million to be terrific. 200 innings of 3.50 is terrific. And 6 innings of quality relief in a 5-game series is also terrific. Less than 2 innings of crappy starting pitching in a 5-game series is not so terrific.

This isn't actually that hard.

This isn't actually that easy, either.

There is no way to assume that because Price was an ace reliever in last year's playoffs and in 2008 -- when no hitters really had a book on him -- that he would be so again this year. His relief outing for the Jays in 2015, one of his postseason wins, was pretty crappy: 3 runs on 6 hits in three innings.

It's not like Price is Andrew Miller, a guy who couldn't succeed as a starter, but whose stuff played up in the bullpen. Price is who he is, whether he's starting or relieving. When he is sharp he can pitch very well against anyone, and when he's a little off, other teams can hit him, and the Yankees clobber him.

Price was on an amazing run for 10 starts from July 12-September 12, including an excellent start against the Yankees in Fenway that doesn't look as good, numbers-wise, as it actually was, because Cora got a little greedy sending him out for the seventh with his pitch count getting up there and Hembree allowed the two inherited runners to score.

But Price didn't finish the season well, allowing 5 homers* in 10.1 innings in his last two starts. He clearly wasn't as sharp, and that carried over into last night. I don't think it made a difference whether he started the game or came in in the sixth. It's all about whether he's sharp.

* Includes a couple of only-in-the-Toilet cheapies.

 

[BaseballJones]

This isn't actually that easy, either.

There is no way to assume that because Price was an ace reliever in last year's playoffs and in 2008 -- when no hitters really had a book on him -- that he would be so again this year. His relief outing for the Jays in 2015, one of his postseason wins, was pretty crappy: 3 runs on 6 hits in three innings.

It's not like Price is Andrew Miller, a guy who couldn't succeed as a starter, but whose stuff played up in the bullpen. Price is who he is, whether he's starting or relieving. When he is sharp he can pitch very well against anyone, and when he's a little off, other teams can hit him, and the Yankees clobber him.

Price was on an amazing run for 10 starts from July 12-September 12, including an excellent start against the Yankees in Fenway that doesn't look as good, numbers-wise, as it actually was, because Cora got a little greedy sending him out for the seventh with his pitch count getting up there and Hembree allowed the two inherited runners to score.

But Price didn't finish the season well, allowing 5 homers* in 10.1 innings in his last two starts. He clearly wasn't as sharp, and that carried over into last night. I don't think it made a difference whether he started the game or came in in the sixth. It's all about whether he's sharp.

* Includes a couple of only-in-the-Toilet cheapies.

So what's your suggestion then? Keep running him out there in a starting role in the playoffs? Banish him? or use him as a reliever? To me, options 1 and 2 are not tenable at this point.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

So there is a book on him in 2018 but there wasn't a book on him in 2017?

 

[jon abbey]

I think a part of Price's struggles against New York have to do with his total lack of a breaking pitch. He threw zero breaking pitches yesterday. Same with Rodriguez - zero breaking pitches. Everything is fastball or change/cutter. You have to have absolutely masterful location to get away with that repertoire at 92MPH against the Yankee lineup as a lefty. There's just nothing to get them off balance.

They really kill all lefties not named Sale, they saw Snell three times and had two of his four sub-50 game score games, and that was pre Voit/McCutchen additions.

I honestly don't think it's a general postseason thing with Price right now, I think it is Yankee-specific. Chapman has the same thing with BOS, he was lucky to get the bottom of the order on Saturday but BOS has dominated him for two seasons running now. These teams are both such good-hitting teams and see each other so much and scout each other so much and study the other so much, I think some guys on both sides just end up as terrible matchups that their team should avoid when possible. You'll note that Boone has yet to go to Holder, pretty sure he would be at least ahead of Lynn against another opponent, but he melted down in an early August game in Fenway, 7 of the 23 runs he allowed all season in one insane inning.

 

[j44thor]

I think a part of Price's struggles against New York have to do with his total lack of a breaking pitch. He threw zero breaking pitches yesterday. Same with Rodriguez - zero breaking pitches. Everything is fastball or change/cutter. You have to have absolutely masterful location to get away with that repertoire at 92MPH against the Yankee lineup as a lefty. There's just nothing to get them off balance.

What I can't figure out is how Price gets so many outs with his FB. I was watching the Hou game Cole started and they said Cole has the second toughest FB to hit behind David fking Price. Batters only hit .170 something off Price FB. Pretty sure the MFY hit around .600 off it.

 

[BaseballJones]

What I can't figure out is how Price gets so many outs with his FB. I was watching the Hou game Cole started and they said Cole has the second toughest FB to hit behind David fking Price. Batters only hit .170 something off Price FB. Pretty sure the MFY hit around .600 off it.

It's because Price usually has pinpoint control over it. 98 middle middle gets crushed by MLB hitters (which astounds me...these guys are so freaking good it's scary...go to a batting cage and ask them to give you 98 and you just won't believe how fast that is). But 94 nipping the corner at the knees is hard for even these guys to hit.

Watch Sanchez' first homer on Saturday. It was a 90 mph cutter that was at the shins and actually a tick off the outside corner. That pitch is simply not meant to be hit out to left. But Sanchez dipped, leaned out, and dropped the head of the bat on it and because he's an absolute animal, yanked it over the monster in left. It was a GREAT pitch that a pretty good power hitter managed to hit.

Look at where this pitch is.

The announcer said going into this AB that Sanchez' lifetime numbers off Price were 6-13 with 5 homers. So make it 7-14 with 6 homers. Not the matchup the Sox want to see in the future I guess.

 

[Devizier]

Watch Sanchez' first homer on Saturday. It was a 90 mph cutter that was at the shins and actually a tick off the outside corner. That pitch is simply not meant to be hit out to left. But Sanchez dipped, leaned out, and dropped the head of the bat on it and because he's an absolute animal, yanked it over the monster in left. It was a GREAT pitch that a pretty good power hitter managed to hit.

This would support Jon Abbey's hypothesis that the Yankees just have better scouting on Price than most other teams. That seems crazy to me, with all the resources available to MLB teams these days but it does seem borne out by the evidence.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Should Leon’s pitch calling be questioned

 

[BaseballJones]

This would support Jon Abbey's hypothesis that the Yankees just have better scouting on Price than most other teams. That seems crazy to me, with all the resources available to MLB teams these days but it does seem borne out by the evidence.

Maybe that's true. Sanchez clearly owns him. But even then it's crazy, because even in BP guys don't hit homers at the rate that Sanchez hits them off Price. Six homers in 14 AB? Are you kidding me? I can understand if he hits the ball really hard off Price, but some of those should be hard singles or doubles, but basically the guy just crushes homer after homer off Price.

On this particular pitch I highlighted, what is Price supposed to do? That is a nasty cutter that often totally freezes hitters because it starts off outside (so they think it's a ball) and is designed to catch the corner for a strike. Elevation is good - just below the knees. This pitch would have been called a ball, as it crossed the plate about the width of a ball outside, and the pitch tracker showed as much (if you look closely, you can see the pitch tracker frame and the ball is about a ball width outside). That's not - NOT - a pitch that is supposed to be hit for a home run - never mind one to left field.

But Sanchez, who isn't a great for-average hitter, knew what to expect. Instead of being fooled by it like most hitters are, he went down and got it and ripped it over the monster.

If Price can't throw that pitch to Sanchez without it being crushed, I don't know what he's supposed to do. They seem to clearly have Price's number. The homer he gave up to Judge was middle of the plate, thigh high, and really was kind of a meatball. But this one to Sanchez in NO WAY should have resulted in what happened. I cannot blame Price for this homer - I give all the credit to Sanchez.

 

[j44thor]

Does anyone have pitch location data on Sanchez other HRs off Price?
I agree it was a good pitch unless that is what Sanchez was expecting.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Does anyone have pitch location data on Sanchez other HRs off Price?
I agree it was a good pitch unless that is what Sanchez was expecting.

The HRs were on 9/17/16, 9/27/16, 6/8/17 (2), and 4/11/18 (for anyone who knows how to look it up).

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

9/17/16 - Edit: 96 mph Sinker

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Should Leon’s pitch calling be questioned

Did it get worse suddenly from Sales' outing to Price's?

Maybe he doesn't like Price and calls pitches the hitters can handle on purpose?

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

9/27/16 - 94 mph sinker

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

6/8/17
87 mph changeup:

95 mph sinker:

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

4/11/18

90 mph cutter:

 

[jayhoz]

Yeah, sinkers and changeups up in the zone are not going to get it done. That's not pitch calling. That's missed location.

 

[BaseballJones]

Sanchez' homers off Price in his career:

9/17/16 - two run homer in the 3rd - sinker middle of the plate, knee high

9/27/16 - two run homer in the 1st - fastball belt high, middle of the plate

6/8/17 - three run homer in the 3rd - thigh high, outer third of the plate

6/8/17 - two run homer in the 5th - belt high, outer third of the plate

4/11/18 - two run homer in the 1st - top of the zone, middle of the plate

10/6/18 - solo homer in the 2nd - cutter shin high, off the outside corner

There were several meatballs there to Sanchez. But the homer on 4/11/18 and on 10/6/18 were on two very different pitches. One just under the letters and the other low and away and he crushed them both.

EDIT: Thanks to SirPsychoSquints for the pitchfx info. I couldn't find that.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Those sample seem to say, "pitch him in", but we'd need the whole Price catalog to see if that works

I like the first one:

high-inside (b)
inside (b)
high-inside (k)
middle-high (f)
high-inside (f)
low-outside (oops)

 

[[icon]]

Anyone else take advantage of the NYY +100 line that was offered the morning of Price's start?

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Sanchez's 479' bomb off ERod was also on a low & away pitch, although more middle.

that's why Cora is stressing brush Judge / Sanchez off the plate, they are comfortable and looking away right now.

 

[LesterFan]

Sanchez's 479' bomb off ERod was also on a low & away pitch, although more middle.

that's why Cora is stressing brush Judge / Sanchez off the plate, they are comfortable and looking away right now.

That one wasn't low at all.

 

[Mike F]

0-10 isn't a big enough sample size for you? yes, i am educated enough to read his body language as is everyone else in this board....He is anti-Pedro on the mound...He looked like he wanted his blankey last night.

I think Bizzaro Pedro is more accurate.

 

[Captaincoop]

From the putting the cart ahead of the horse department: Assuming the Sox advance, they pretty much have to put Price out to start again. Do you wait for game 3 so he isn't in front of the Fenway crowd?

 

[JimD]

From the putting the cart ahead of the horse department: Assuming the Sox advance, they pretty much have to put Price out to start again. Do you wait for game 3 so he isn't in front of the Fenway crowd?

I can't fathom Cora letting that influence his decision-making, although I shudder to think about Price pitching in game 2 if the Sox were to lose game 1.

 

[Captaincoop]

That's why it's at least worth thinking about announcing him as the game 3 starter.

 

[TheYaz67]

The Astros have a bunch of righties who can mash also, and I think/hope Cora would see the wisdom in not letting the Astro's see two lefty starters back to back in Fenway (that's if we win Game #4 of the ALDS and therefore Sale can start game #1 of the ALCS) - much better to let Porcello or Evoldi go in game 2 if sale pitches in Game 1, and as Coop points out I think Price may pitch better away from the "pressure" of pitching in Fenway (given his past record of postseason failure)....

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Assuming the Sox advance, David Price is starting ALCS Game 2. The only thing that will change that fact is if the current series goes to five games, in which case David Price starts Game 1.

 

[[icon]]

Unfortunately I think the more you dick with the rotation to work around Price, the more you feed the monkey that's now left his back and flat out taken up residence between his ears.

Agreed with RHF: Keep him in the 2 hole for now. IF we advance and IF he implodes again, then perhaps work around him for game 6 IF it's played.

Reality is, we aren't seeing him again until we get past the Yankees (a far from completed task) so...

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Price was the one bright spot on the mound last year in the ALDS against Houston. Everyone else sucked.

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

What I can't figure out is how Price gets so many outs with his FB. I was watching the Hou game Cole started and they said Cole has the second toughest FB to hit behind David fking Price. Batters only hit .170 something off Price FB. Pretty sure the MFY hit around .600 off it.

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

What I can't figure out is how Price gets so many outs with his FB. I was watching the Hou game Cole started and they said Cole has the second toughest FB to hit behind David fking Price. Batters only hit .170 something off Price FB. Pretty sure the MFY hit around .600 off it.

How is a batting average against a certain pitch calculated? Is it a BABIP? Does it include third strikes with a fastball?

 

[joe dokes]

Today's Glob:

Cora burst out laughing when asked why fans should believe Price can “mentally handle’” the postseason.

“There’s been guys around the league that they struggle their first 10 [postseason starts],” Cora said.

“[Justin] Verlander. Nobody remembers that he wasn’t very good early in his career in the playoffs and now he’s kind of like the poster child of playoff baseball.”

Cora was somewhat correct. Verlander was 3-3 with a 5.57 ERA in his first eight postseason starts. Clayton Kershaw is another example. He was 1-6 with a 4.86 ERA in his first nine postseason starts.

Price is 0-9 with a 6.03 ERA in 10 playoff starts. But he has a 2.35 ERA in eight relief appearances.

 

[dhappy42]

Sanchez's 479' bomb off ERod was also on a low & away pitch, although more middle.

that's why Cora is stressing brush Judge / Sanchez off the plate, they are comfortable and looking away right now.

Not easy to brush Judge and Sanchez off the plate. Neither crowd the plate that much. Sanchez, in particular, mashes inside pitches. They’re both huge, can stand back and *still* pull outside pitches. Or flick them to the opposite field for cheap HRs in the Toilet. The low and away pitch, shown above, that Price threw to Sanchez was exactly where you want to pitch Sanchez. And he clobbered it anyway.

 

[dhappy42]

Today's Glob:

The Price hate is over the top. But I hate him anyway.

Seriously, although I wouldn’t use him in the remaining game against the Yankees, I’d have no hesitation starting him in game two against the Astros. Or game one if we don’t win tonight.

 

[lexrageorge]

One consideration is that if the Sox win tonight (without needing to use Price in relief), Price would be pitching on 10 days rest in a potential Game 3 of the ALCS. Not sure if the 2 extra days of rest matters that much, but Cora may decide that's a bit too much and therefore start him in Game 2 just for that reason.

 

[Beale13]

Just to put things in perspective, after last night Luis Severino now has a higher postseason ERA as a starter (6.26) than David Price (6.03). David Price has also pitched 6 innings or more in 8 of his 10 postseason starts. Severino has pitched less than 5 innings in 5 of his 6 postseason starts.

I still never want to see him throw a postseason pitch to a Yankee ever again.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

One consideration is that if the Sox win tonight (without needing to use Price in relief), Price would be pitching on 10 days rest in a potential Game 3 of the ALCS. Not sure if the 2 extra days of rest matters that much, but Cora may decide that's a bit too much and therefore start him in Game 2 just for that reason.

Price pitched Saturday on 10 days rest, so I don't think that will be much of a factor in Cora's decision making. Price is going to start Game 2 of the ALCS (assuming the Sox win tonight so Sale can start Game 1). Unless he's injured or he's needed out of the bullpen for an extended outing, there's no chance Cora pushes him back.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Speier in the Glob has a good look at why Price has been wrong lately.

During his good second half run, Price "was throwing cutters and changeups away and off the plate, working up and down with the cutters while fading the changeups down and off the plate. His two-seam fastballs looked like they were heading towards a righthanded hitter’s belt-buckle before taking a hard left turn to the inner edge of the plate. The results were dominant.

But Price’s release point has continued to drop rather than stabilizing, and in his most recent starts, he’s been releasing his cutter about an inch and a half lower than he did, on average, during his standout two-month run. He’s also been throwing the pitch harder of late, giving it less separation from his fastball.

In his most recent starts, the combination of throwing the cutter harder and the lower release point has led to less vertical drop of the pitch. In his brief start against the Yankees, the pitch had about 2 fewer inches of vertical movement than had been the case during his excellent nine-start run that followed the All-Star break."


I'm fine with him starting against the Astros, but if we lose game 1 I don't want him starting game 2, with the home crowd completely against him, I would expect him to totally wilt under that kind of pressure. I'd start him in game 3 on the road, I think that's putting him in the best position to succeed.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The Astros have a bunch of righties who can mash also, and I think/hope Cora would see the wisdom in not letting the Astro's see two lefty starters back to back in Fenway (that's if we win Game #4 of the ALDS and therefore Sale can start game #1 of the ALCS) - much better to let Porcello or Evoldi go in game 2 if sale pitches in Game 1, and as Coop points out I think Price may pitch better away from the "pressure" of pitching in Fenway (given his past record of postseason failure)....

This is where I am. Especially if, God forbid, the Sox lose Game 1. You can't trot Price out there, with an 0-1 deficit, and risk falling to 0-2 and heading to Houston.

My biggest issue is pitching David Price after Chris Sale. I was wondering if anyone here has done the numbers. What are Price's numbers this year, when he starts after Chris Sale, against the same team? And what are his numbers not in that situation? Didn't a big portion of Price's second half surge happen when Sale went on the DL? I feel like a lineup that sees Chris Sale one day, and then gets a much, much easier version of the same pitcher the next day is just licking their chops. Throw in the Fenway crowd, and potentially a one game deficit, and it just has disaster written all over it. I say you pitch Eovaldi game 2, come back with Price in 3, then Porcello and Sale...The other part of this is are they really planning to give Price 2 starts if he loses Game 2, and we still make it 6-7 games? I think right now, the odds are that Eovaldi gives you a better chance to win, so I'd rather have him getting the extra rest to maybe have to start again later in the series, than Price.

If anyone here can find those numbers on games following a Sale start (make sure it's against the same team though, or it's no longer relevant), I would be forever grateful.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Price made 11 starts following Chris Sale where they both faced the same team. Two of them were starts against the Yankees including the 1 inning outing in April (4 R) and the 3 inning shelling (8 R) in July.

Price's line for the 11 games...60 innings, 4.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5-4 record (7-4 team record)

Remove the two Yankee games... 9 starts, 55.2 innings, 3.07 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

Included in those nine is a start in Houston in which the Sox won 5-4...6 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K.

 

[joe dokes]

Price pitched Saturday on 10 days rest, so I don't think that will be much of a factor in Cora's decision making. Price is going to start Game 2 of the ALCS (assuming the Sox win tonight so Sale can start Game 1). Unless he's injured or he's needed out of the bullpen for an extended outing, there's no chance Cora pushes him back.

Nor should he. If Cora thinks that Price is scared or cant cope with the pressure or he's weak and fragile and needs protection from those bad and nasty fans, then he should send him home. My guess is that he doesn't think that.
As Saint Tito once said, "start thinking like the fans, then soon you'll be sitting with them."

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Price made 11 starts following Chris Sale where they both faced the same team. Two of them were starts against the Yankees including the 1 inning outing in April (4 R) and the 3 inning shelling (8 R) in July.

Price's line for the 11 games...60 innings, 4.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5-4 record (7-4 team record)

Remove the two Yankee games... 9 starts, 55.2 innings, 3.07 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.

Included in those nine is a start in Houston in which the Sox won 5-4...6 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K.

Thank you very much for this. It does not include the playoff start against the Yankees either, right?

I guess we'll find out soon enough if it's all about the Yankees, or if this is actually a trend worth watching.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Price gets a lot of crap for his postseason struggles, but he's hardly unique. Kershaw got hammered again in the playoffs last night, and he's a better pitcher than Price, perhaps the best in the world. It's an interesting, odd game.