Price is right

[Reverend]

That would be the scenario with the front-door cutter to a LHH, but with a front-door cutter to a RHH, it's kind of the opposite: if it breaks enough, it's a ball that's very difficult to hit, if it doesn't, it's a hittable strike.

Looking at the clip again, I think Vazquez wanted that pitch not so much further inside but further down, which makes sense in terms of the heatmaps -- on the inside edge, Gonzalez hits LHP harder right at the top of the zone than about belt-high. So Price missed up.

And to Patek & dhappy's point, yes, of course we're over-analyzing that one pitch in terms of the outcome. Good hitters hit good pitches as well as bad ones. We're just trying to figure out which of those two things happened here.

I'm actually wondering if we're not over or under anaylizing it, we just don't have all the data. Like, I don't know how to write queries and such and I'm not even sure what's available in the feed. So yeah, I agree, this isn't an attempt to generalize off of a pitch as some might think--it's an attempt to use an outcome to learn about what happened in a specific instance to inform future generalizations by figuring out what the fuck they are up to, eh?

That's the fun stuff!

So specifically, I'm wondering this:
Do the teams have data on how each pitcher tends to miss? Like, you mention Price's cutter to RHH. Like, it's possible the team has data they are confident in such that, say, Price tends to miss up with his cutter, whereas he misses left with some other pitch, or in some other situations.

We ran the numbers a few years ago with Buchholz and, while starts are small samples, treating each start as a sample of lots of pitches brings reliable results together much more quickly.

So imagine, like, Price has a heat map for his cutter against LHH that shows likelihood of outcome--a command map, if you will. You wouldn't just pick your spot on a hitter's heat map and try to hit it, you'd overlay the pitcher's command map on to the heat map to figure out which approach has the highest likelihood of success overall within the probabilities of where the pitch is likely to actually end up.

 

[BaseballJones]

That would be the scenario with the front-door cutter to a LHH, but with a front-door cutter to a RHH, it's kind of the opposite: if it breaks enough, it's a ball that's very difficult to hit, if it doesn't, it's a hittable strike.

Looking at the clip again, I think Vazquez wanted that pitch not so much further inside but further down, which makes sense in terms of the heatmaps -- on the inside edge, Gonzalez hits LHP harder right at the top of the zone than about belt-high. So Price missed up.

And to Patek & dhappy's point, yes, of course we're over-analyzing that one pitch in terms of the outcome. Good hitters hit good pitches as well as bad ones. We're just trying to figure out which of those two things happened here.

Yeah exactly. I get that this is the main board and not a game thread, so we're more apt to take the time to do this kind of analysis (and where I'm happy to be shown my mistakes). But this is WAY better than Gonzalez hitting a ball out and 20 immediate posts pop up that say some version of "Price, you F-ing suck".

 

[Reverend]

Yeah exactly. I get that this is the main board and not a game thread, so we're more apt to take the time to do this kind of analysis (and where I'm happy to be shown my mistakes). But this is WAY better than Gonzalez hitting a ball out and 20 immediate posts pop up that say some version of "Price, you F-ing suck".

It also takes more effort, focus, and most relevantly here: time.

Which is why the game threads exist--to keep the complaints and emotive responses of that sort to one place.

Why that seems to be breaking down lately is anyone's guess. Mine is the playoffs. But it would probably be a good idea if we got back to trying to keep it in the game threads.

 

[BaseballJones]

It also takes more effort, focus, and most relevantly here: time.

Which is why the game threads exist--to keep the complaints and emotive responses of that sort to one place.

Why that seems to be breaking down lately is anyone's guess. Mine is the playoffs. But it would probably be a good idea if we got back to trying to keep it in the game threads.

Heh. Totally agree.

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

Yeah exactly. I get that this is the main board and not a game thread, so we're more apt to take the time to do this kind of analysis (and where I'm happy to be shown my mistakes). But this is WAY better than Gonzalez hitting a ball out and 20 immediate posts pop up that say some version of "Price, you F-ing suck".

I don't mind skipping to "Price, you F-ing suck".

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So imagine, like, Price has a heat map for his cutter against LHH that shows likelihood of outcome--a command map, if you will. You wouldn't just pick your spot on a hitter's heat map and try to hit it, you'd overlay the pitcher's command map on to the heat map to figure out which approach has the highest likelihood of success overall within the probabilities of where the pitch is likely to actually end up.

That would make a lot of sense. Mapping tendencies matchup by matchup, looking for the risk/reward sweet spots, and using that as the starting point for a game plan. That may not be how they do it, but it seems like a viable way somebody might do it.

 

[Reverend]

I don't mind skipping to "Price, you F-ing suck".

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

WRT the Marwin homer, i find the discussion about heatmaps, and the Sox' apparent intention to attack hitters in their cold zones and to try to avoid missing in a hot zone, to be fascinating. And it's certainly complicated by the fact that we're usually not considering this just in the context of a single pitch (unless the batter is retired on the first pitch) but over the course of an at-bat, so you're also looking at pitch sequencing. And the wild card, which the Sox coaching staff and pitcher don't really know, is what the batter is looking for on a particular pitch, which certainly may vary depending on count and/or pitch sequencing. So you can make a seemingly great pitch, perfectly located in a cold zone, but if the batter is looking for that pitch in that zone, then there's an increased probability that they can hit it hard somewhere. And if your gameplan is to consistently attack these cold zones, then the batters will pick up on this and look for these pitches. So it's more than a question of "just" executing the pitch - it's also the mental chess game between the pitcher (and catcher) and hitter. And it's really a big part of what makes baseball so great, and maybe also something that is not sufficiently appreciated by the casual fan - there is so much going on on every pitch!

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

And the wild card, which the Sox coaching staff and pitcher don't really know, is what the batter is looking for on a particular pitch, which certainly may vary depending on count and/or pitch sequencing. So you can make a seemingly great pitch, perfectly located in a cold zone, but if the batter is looking for that pitch in that zone, then there's an increased probability that they can hit it hard somewhere!

The Sox need a pre-cog on staff.

 

[Reverend]

The Sox need a pre-cog on staff.

Like the Patriots?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Shhh! Pink Stripes is not to be discussed!

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

Is the square in middle of the Gonzalez chart the strike zone? If so, we are analyzing 3"X3" squares. I doubt if any of the bearded, 95+mph Sox relievers have that level of command.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Again... this discussion leads me to wonder about pitch calling and sequence. Who is calling the games for Price?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=priceda01&t=p&year=2018

CV caught Price's worst 4 starts per gamescore (although two might just be NYY problems).

OTOH, he caught 4 of Price's 10 best. So Price *can* throw successfully to him. But even if it's just a subconscious comfort thing for Price, I'd still prefer Leon/Price, especially early in a series.

Catcher choice does make you wonder about the Sox defensive metrics or hidden injuries; in particular, Nunez/Kinsler don't appear to be a net improvement over Devers/Holt.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=priceda01&t=p&year=2018



Catcher choice does make you wonder about the Sox defensive metrics or hidden injuries; in particular, Nunez/Kinsler don't appear to be a net improvement over Devers/Holt.

Or they are simply valuing defense more than offense so if there is no net improvement between 2 players, they go with the better defender. Kinsler is clearly the superior defender among the 4, but he's also stuck at 2b which is probably Holt's best position.

I'd go Kinsler/Holt myself, but I don't think the Redsox like Holt at 3b very much. He couldn't be much worse than Devers and Nunez have been though. I could see going Holt/Devers too since Kinsler and Nunez have been terrible at the plate.

I see no argument for Nunez. Can't hit, can't field. He makes easy plays look hard which makes him look good, so he has that going for him.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Or they are simply valuing defense more than offense so if there is no net improvement between 2 players, they go with the better defender.

The Sox probably have a complicated number of factors to juggle - SP's ground v. flyball, opposing hitter tendencies, valuing range v. arm, etc. Perhaps there are some real gains to be had there. By eyeball, I'd agree with what you wrote, but would lump Devers/Nunez/Holt together as "flawed 3bmen" and just go with the most appropriate offensive skillset, given the opposing SP.

As far as Price goes, to bring this back on topic, does anyone have any numbers beyond "catcher ERA" like Price's FIP that are sorted by whomever has caught Price this year, and last?

 

[BoSoxLady]

Soapbox warning:

I completely understand that many Red Sox fans have very strong negative feelings about David Price. I’m not going to get into a debate about right or wrong because all opinions are valid.

Everything I’ve read or heard about Price is that he’s a great teammate. Did you see his reaction in the ‘pen last night after Benny made the play of this life?

He’s made mistakes dealing with the media but why should we care? We all know about Price’s postseason failures, some of which were not his fault. I believe the Red Sox would not have made the postseason in 2017 without Price pitching in relief down the stretch. The Red Sox would not have won 108 games without him. I know he’s sucked against the Yankees. Pedro did also many times. I’m not comparing Price to Pedro, just the situation.

I’m not wearing rose-colored glasses and being a Pollyanna. I see the same issues as you. DP has gone out of his way to praise the fans and people of Boston despite the manner in which he’s treated.

We need David Price’s help tonight and if the Red Sox move on, he’ll need to come through. How about we take a break from the vitriol and take a positive approach? It can’t hurt, it can only help.

Rant over.

#DoDamage

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Guess the notion that Price doesn't have the mental fortitude to perform under the bright lights and high pressure of the post-season can be put to rest. He did his job tonight with aplomb.

 

[Earthbound64]

And there's that starting postseason win for Price.
Beautiful.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

He can still redeem himself if they make it through (and he’s on the LCS roster), but I’m pretty much done defending him tooth and nail anymore. It’s sad, too, because I had hoped he’d have been able to solidify a hall of fame career for nearly a decade and we’ve had flashes, and already too much of the mythical playoff David Price. And he killed them in the 2008 ALCS too. Go figure that would be his biggest postseason moment involving the Red Sox.

Mea culpa. That was balls. Fucking happy for him.

 

[JCizzle]

This postgame interview is incredible. You cant hate on this guy, he wants this!

 

[reggiecleveland]

Very happy for the guy. A lot of confidence in this staff against either NL opponent.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Guess the notion that Price doesn't have the mental fortitude to perform under the bright lights and high pressure of the post-season can be put to rest. He did his job tonight with aplomb.

The Redsox were punting this game up 3-1 so there was no pressure on Price to pitch well.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

The Redsox were punting this game up 3-1 so there was no pressure on Price to pitch well.

Oh come the fuck on. How exactly were they punting it? Dude sacked up. Go away.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Oh come the fuck on. How exactly were they punting it? Dude sacked up. Go away.

Your sarcasm meter is busted.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Hey, good for him.
Around the third or fourth inning he really got in a groove and looked as good as he ever has pitching for the Red Sox.
He must feel great putting to rest the "he can't win the big games" stigma.

 

[21st Century Sox]

Really happy for him. Long time coming. When he said post game that he figured out his issue in the pen last night......this could bode very well for him next week. Let's Go!!!!

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'm curious to see his velocity chart. Seemed like that's as hard as he's thrown all year. A Price spotting 95 mph throwing 35% change ups is a very different David Price. Great for him.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm curious to see his velocity chart. Seemed like that's as hard as he's thrown all year. A Price spotting 95 mph throwing 35% change ups is a very different David Price. Great for him.

That velocity spike on 3 days rest is simply amazing.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Price said after the game he figured something out throwing in the bullpen last night.

 

[ricopetro6]

his change up was the key

 

[Bergs]

Price said after the game he figured something out throwing in the bullpen last night.

If that's real, we might not even need Sale.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

That velocity spike on 3 days rest is simply amazing.

Eovaldi hit 102 tonight, which makes me wonder if the Houston radar is a bit hyped. Not that that diminishes the magnificence of Price's pitching tonight -- it was equally superb whether it was 95-96 or 93-94. (Maybe even a little more superb if it was 93-94.)

 

[soxhop411]

I'm curious to see his velocity chart. Seemed like that's as hard as he's thrown all year. A Price spotting 95 mph throwing 35% change ups is a very different David Price. Great for him.

That velocity spike on 3 days rest is simply amazing.

 

[Apisith]

I'm curious to see his velocity chart. Seemed like that's as hard as he's thrown all year. A Price spotting 95 mph throwing 35% change ups is a very different David Price. Great for him.

I definitely saw a few 96s on Gameday. Feels like it's the hardest he's thrown all year.

 

[soxhop411]

 

[koufax32]

If that's real, we might not even need Sale.

100 wins is not out of...

oh, wait

 

[soxhop411]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=563397&type=away_pitchers&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=description&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=

 

[uncannymanny]

That velocity spike on 3 days rest is simply amazing.

Probably bought a CPAP.

 

[riboflav]

his change up was the key

Which looked even better with the increase in velocity. Imagine if he figured out why he wasn’t able to throw this hard in forever. Ok. Probably a fairy tale...

 

[Van Everyman]

Eovaldi hit 102 tonight, which makes me wonder if the Houston radar is a bit hyped. Not that that diminishes the magnificence of Price's pitching tonight -- it was equally superb whether it was 95-96 or 93-94. (Maybe even a little more superb if it was 93-94.)

I’d buy 102 tho given that Eovaldi was pitching in relief not starting. But agree with your broader point.

Was this Price’s best start as a Red Sox?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Your sarcasm meter is busted.

Then sincere apologies.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Way less cuter usage which went almost directly to increased change usage.

When he was at his best in the middle of the year, the change usage was also very high. It's the difference maker.

 

[edoug]

 

[DJnVa]

This might get lost in the game thread:

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

He deserves everything tonight. Best start since joining the team.

 

[uncannymanny]

God damn I love that video.

 

[Reverend]

Soapbox warning:

I completely understand that many Red Sox fans have very strong negative feelings about David Price. I’m not going to get into a debate about right or wrong because all opinions are valid.

Everything I’ve read or heard about Price is that he’s a great teammate. Did you see his reaction in the ‘pen last night after Benny made the play of this life?

He’s made mistakes dealing with the media but why should we care? We all know about Price’s postseason failures, some of which were not his fault. I believe the Red Sox would not have made the postseason in 2017 without Price pitching in relief down the stretch. The Red Sox would not have won 108 games without him. I know he’s sucked against the Yankees. Pedro did also many times. I’m not comparing Price to Pedro, just the situation.

I’m not wearing rose-colored glasses and being a Pollyanna. I see the same issues as you. DP has gone out of his way to praise the fans and people of Boston despite the manner in which he’s treated.

We need David Price’s help tonight and if the Red Sox move on, he’ll need to come through. How about we take a break from the vitriol and take a positive approach? It can’t hurt, it can only help.

Rant over.

#DoDamage

oh hai

The Redsox were punting this game up 3-1 so there was no pressure on Price to pitch well.

Makes sense. Good time to do it.

Price said after the game he figured something out throwing in the bullpen last night.

Was it that the earth is flat?

God damn I love that video.

Game fucking on.

 

[djbayko]

Price said after the game he figured something out throwing in the bullpen last night.

It's ironic that we were all worried about him throwing so much last night, and that bullpen session might have been the key to him having such a great game tonight.

 

[Reverend]

It's ironic that we were all worried about him throwing so much last night, and that bullpen session might have been the key to him having such a great game tonight.

Are you talking about practice?

 

[Adrian's Dome]

David, I take it all back.

Great fucking job.

-AD.