Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

[RedOctober3829]

A report by TheAthletic.com suggested Tuesday that the Red Sox were one of three teams “engaged’’ in trade talks with the Miami Marlins for slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but a major league source said that while Dave Dombrowski and Marlins president of baseball operations Mike Hillspoke at the GM meetings almost two weeks ago and broadly discussed what the Marlins would require to make a deal a reality, they hadn’t spoken since.

The asking price, for now, remains an unrealistic one for the Red Sox, assuming most (if not all) of the remaining $295 million due Stanton over the next 10 years, plus a package of promising young players.

The source suggested the Sox would continue to monitor the talks and be prepared should the Marlins find it necessary to lower their demands.

It’s possible the Marlins purposely overstated the level of engagement by the Red Sox in order to draw in other interested big-market clubs.

Meanwhile, a source with knowledge of the Marlins’ thinking said Tuesday that the scouts assigned to cover the Red Sox system this past year hadn’t been contacted for their input on which prospects to inquire about – another sign that trade talks haven’t gotten off the ground between the teams.

Around the game, the general feeling is that the more salary a club absorbs, the less they’d have to include in terms of players or prospects.

Stanton owns a full no-trade clause and holds great leverage over any potential trade talks since he is within his right to decline any deal which doesn’t meet with his approval.

“I think he’s a competitive guy and wants to go someplace where he can win,’’ said one source who knows Stanton.

“But I could also see him waiting and trying to force a deal with the Dodgers (who are looking to cut payroll this winter). There are worst things than spending another year living in South Beach.’’

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2017/11/28/source-no-stanton-talks-marlins-red-sox-last-two-weeks/

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jon Heyman: chisox have been in active talks with red sox and others on star 1B jose abreu. boston was 1 of 4 finalists for abreu when he signed with chicago (milwaukee & houston were the others).

 

[CurtieLeskanic]

Jon Heyman: chisox have been in active talks with red sox and others on star 1B jose abreu. boston was 1 of 4 finalists for abreu when he signed with chicago (milwaukee & houston were the others).

Abreu would be a fascinating avenue. The deal would probably be something revolving around JBJ. Abreu becomes a free agent in 2020 (same as JBJ). I see the Sox making this trade and getting JD.

I would be thrilled if JBJ isn't involved but he's probably who they're after to continue to build their young team.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Abreu would be a fascinating avenue. The deal would probably be something revolving around JBJ. Abreu becomes a free agent in 2020 (same as JBJ). I see the Sox making this trade and getting JD.

I would be thrilled if JBJ isn't involved but he's probably who they're after to continue to build their young team.

I can't see them doing this on top of signing Martinez as it would put them way over the $237M secondary threshold and would make it virtually impossible to get back under the LT threshold any time soon. They've made no indication that they are willing to live past the LT threshold permanently.

That said, if they did build a package around JBJ to get this done, I could see them following up with a signing of Jay Bruce to play left field, as I mentioned here. Or maybe they take a shot on Carlos Gomez and trade some home runs for steals (and he'd offer about as many HR as JBJ did last year).

 

[CurtieLeskanic]

I can't see them doing this on top of signing Martinez as it would put them way over the $237M secondary threshold and would make it virtually impossible to get back under the LT threshold any time soon. They've made no indication that they are willing to live past the LT threshold permanently.

That said, if they did build a package around JBJ to get this done, I could see them following up with a signing of Jay Bruce to play left field, as I mentioned here. Or maybe they take a shot on Carlos Gomez and trade some home runs for steals (and he'd offer about as many HR as JBJ did last year).

Very true. Abreu's arbitration will probably take him to around $15M next year. With that being the case, I see a Hosmer signing making so much more sense than trading JBJ and acquiring Bruce. You keep the great outfield defense in tact while getting a similar 1B for around the same AAV.

Here's to hoping JBJ isn't the centerpiece.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Would a JBJ-Abreu deal involve a 3rd team? Why would CHI want someone with the same years of control as Abreu?

For BOS, if they could get Abreu for a reasonable package not involving JBJ, they could just roll with that 1B upgrade and skip any big FA signing.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I don’t see how Boston can make a move for Abreu. Taking on the contract is fine but again same issue will come during any trade they’ll need to take away from the major league roster to even make it remotely attractive. The farm is really bad.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Would a JBJ-Abreu deal involve a 3rd team? Why would CHI want someone with the same years of control as Abreu?

For BOS, if they could get Abreu for a reasonable package not involving JBJ, they could just roll with that 1B upgrade and skip any big FA signing.

While JBJ is arb 2 this year, he has 3 years of control left. Not that that should move the needle too much for Chicago, but I suppose they may see him as a more viable long term piece since an extension may not cost as much on an AAV basis as Abreu's and he is about 3 years younger, so going longer isn't necessarily a detriment.

 

[grimshaw]

There's a blurb from Cameron's fangraphs chat today on Bradley and Abreu.

"12:46
Jordan : White Sox fans seem to think they could get JBJ+ top prospects, or Ben+ top prospects for Abreu, I contend that between age, $$$ and the glut of similar free agents means Abreu isn’t worth JBJ or Ben or top prospects, what’s your thoughts on his value?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Bradley is worth so much more than Abreu, it’s not even close.


12:47
Ryan: Abreu opted into arb so he is going to make 17.9M this year according to MLBTR. Even worse for Boston.

12:47
Dave Cameron: I’ll take the under on him getting $18M, but yeah, good point.

12:47
Dave Cameron: He got $11M as an arb-1 last year, so after a good year, he’s probably over $16M this year, and maybe $20M next year.

12:48
Dave Cameron: So now he’s more like 2/$35M, maybe 2/$40M?

12:48
Dave Cameron: You’d take him at those prices, but if you give up something really valuable to get it, it’s a mistake.

12:49
striker: RedSox get Abreu
Giants get JBJ
WhiteSox get Groome and Arroyo

12:49
Dave Cameron: Dombrowski gets insta-fired.

12:50
Dave Cameron: Also, the world in which the Giants can turn Christian Arroyo into Jackie Bradley Jr must be a fun one.

12:50
Brian: Is JBJ and Michael Chavis or Sam Travis enough, too little or too much for Jose Abreu?


12:50
Dave Cameron: I can’t believe how many JBJ+ for Abreu suggestions are in the queue.


12:51
Dave Cameron: Bradley is better than Abreu, cheaper than Abreu, and under team control for longer than Abreu. Also, there’s a billion first baseman on the market this winter, and only one good CF."

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I am attracted to the idea of Abreu/JD, but would hate to give up JBJ just for a slightly above average 1B for 2 years at probably an overpay when we'd have to overpay JD as well.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Abreu and Martinez has to be an either/or situation. Either you trade for Abreu and go the cheaper route for a 4th OF (or starting LF if they're fool enough to include JBJ), or you sign Martinez and go the cheap route at 1B and/or 4th OF. No way they do both guys.

 

[MikeM]

There's a blurb from Cameron's fangraphs chat today on Bradley and Abreu.

"12:46
Jordan : White Sox fans seem to think they could get JBJ+ top prospects, or Ben+ top prospects for Abreu, I contend that between age, $$$ and the glut of similar free agents means Abreu isn’t worth JBJ or Ben or top prospects, what’s your thoughts on his value?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Bradley is worth so much more than Abreu, it’s not even close.


12:47
Ryan: Abreu opted into arb so he is going to make 17.9M this year according to MLBTR. Even worse for Boston.

12:47
Dave Cameron: I’ll take the under on him getting $18M, but yeah, good point.

12:47
Dave Cameron: He got $11M as an arb-1 last year, so after a good year, he’s probably over $16M this year, and maybe $20M next year.

12:48
Dave Cameron: So now he’s more like 2/$35M, maybe 2/$40M?

12:48
Dave Cameron: You’d take him at those prices, but if you give up something really valuable to get it, it’s a mistake.

12:49
striker: RedSox get Abreu
Giants get JBJ
WhiteSox get Groome and Arroyo

12:49
Dave Cameron: Dombrowski gets insta-fired.

12:50
Dave Cameron: Also, the world in which the Giants can turn Christian Arroyo into Jackie Bradley Jr must be a fun one.

12:50
Brian: Is JBJ and Michael Chavis or Sam Travis enough, too little or too much for Jose Abreu?


12:50
Dave Cameron: I can’t believe how many JBJ+ for Abreu suggestions are in the queue.


12:51
Dave Cameron: Bradley is better than Abreu, cheaper than Abreu, and under team control for longer than Abreu. Also, there’s a billion first baseman on the market this winter, and only one good CF."

While I have similar questions myself on how much trade value Abreu should have on top of his contract, that also comes off to me as Cameron being way too bullish of Jackie Bradley. Who isn't some young hot chicken prospect anymore. He's a 28yo who you can argue has yet to even firmly established himself at the MLB level as a reliable starter type on a playoff caliber team.

The potential fall from viewing him as "a possible 5 win player" to "a guy who could never put it all together" can be short one there, and which has to be considered into any accessed value that is almost entirely revolving around hopeful upside atm. That includes a reality where Bradley might generate an Aberu in a trade a today, but 2 months into 2018 and seeing him pick up from where he left off after last year's second half then leaves it somewhat of a chore to even find a team willing to take his contract in full mid season.

 

[MikeM]

That said, if they did build a package around JBJ to get this done, I could see them following up with a signing of Jay Bruce to play left field, as I mentioned here. Or maybe they take a shot on Carlos Gomez and trade some home runs for steals (and he'd offer about as many HR as JBJ did last year).

Abreu/Bruce is doable, but it should be noted that also probably leaves us pretty tight (roughly $5m maybe?) in terms of how much in-season flexibility we'd be left with while hoping to stay under $237m.

I think the main selling point for me in the concept of trading Bradley for Abreu is that it would help steer us away from overpaying on Hosmer. Like I noted yesterday, the idea of DD going in to this winter with a boxed in upgrade path and only one acquisition to make scares the hell out of me in that respect. Especially when I don't see it being JD.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I am attracted to the idea of Abreu/JD, but would hate to give up JBJ just for a slightly above average 1B for 2 years at probably an overpay when we'd have to overpay JD as well.

The other problem with Abreu/JD is that they're both righthanded, and we need some lefthanded power as well. I think Abreu/Bruce makes sense. It's the cheaper, lower-risk flip side of JD/Belt.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

While I have similar questions myself on how much trade value Abreu should have on top of his contract, that also comes off to me as Cameron being way too bullish of Jackie Bradley. Who isn't some young hot chicken prospect anymore. He's a 28yo who you can argue has yet to even firmly established himself at the MLB level as a reliable starter type on a playoff caliber team.

The potential fall from viewing him as "a possible 5 win player" to "a guy who could never put it all together" can be short one there, and which has to be considered into any accessed value that is almost entirely revolving around hopeful upside atm. That includes a reality where Bradley might generate an Aberu in a trade a today, but 2 months into 2018 and seeing him pick up from where he left off after last year's second half then leaves it somewhat of a chore to even find a team willing to take his contract in full mid season.

I agree with Cameron. JBJ is too much. BUT Abreu is not coming for Chavis or Groome. If you want to get him then you're going to have to part with a young player on your roster plus other pieces. Honestly, I've gotten crap for saying E-Rod. But any package for these bats would probably start there in regards to major league talent. JBJ for Abreu would be an awful trade. Its going to hurt whatever this team gives up for Abreu. If they do at all.

 

[bohous]

I would prefer to give up the unknown value of the future draft pick and just sign Santana than trade JBJ+ another valuable piece for 2 years of Abreu.

 

[Puffy]

I'm also in general agreement with Cameron, although not quite so bullish on JBJ. I don't see Abreu as a significant enough improvement over the glut of mediocre-to-good corner infield options already available via free agency. I understand that, for the Red Sox, there is a marginal value for each additional win, so upgrading from someone average like Moreland to someone like good-but-not-great like Abreu probably matters a lot to this team. Even if you don't want to take a chance on Hosmer, there may be some decent bargains in the average-to-good category, including Carlos Santana or even Moustakas, who has youth and some positional flexibility on his side. It's not like we are really dealing with a surplus of outfielders.

 

[nvalvo]

I think Dave Cameron is closer to right about Bradley’s trade value than most people on this board.

 

[mfried]

Do the White Sox have someone else we would like, thus JBJ and AA minor leaguer for Abreu + x?

 

[MikeM]

These are all perfectly fine stances to take. I was simply pointing out that you also have to acknowledge the surrounding risk factor that comes in the process of doing that, and which is commonly getting overlooked atm/imo.

Preserving the chance you end up being right on Bradley is going to have it's spider webbing cost this winter. Which might play out to be a bad Hosmer contract, the lost opportunity to trade an asset while they still possessed some value, and ultimately a mostly back to square one outcome.

 

[grimshaw]

Speaking of traded White Sox, - I read somewhere that Todd Frazier would be willing to play 1b as well. Yet another fairly cheap, mediocre option. Plus he could probably work with Devers some as well.

 

[chawson]

I think Dave Cameron is closer to right about Bradley’s trade value than most people on this board.

100 percent.

The other problem with Abreu/JD is that they're both righthanded, and we need some lefthanded power as well. I think Abreu/Bruce makes sense. It's the cheaper, lower-risk flip side of JD/Belt.

Abreu/Bruce is actually much higher risk, as all of Jay Bruce’s value is in his ability to hit home runs to right field, which is hard to do in Fenway.

Jay Bruce is not good. Over the last four years, LHH who have a higher wRC+ include Nick Markakis, Colby Rasmus, Robbie Grossman, Brandon Moss, and Nori Aoki.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Abreu/Bruce is actually much higher risk, as all of Jay Bruce’s value is in his ability to hit homeruns to right field, which is hard to do in Fenway.

I meant low-risk in terms of resources committed. Good point about the pull power, though.

 

[Sampo Gida]

I think they could afford both Abreu and JD. They can make the deal for JBJ and Abreu straight up after Abreu is signed in arb with the CWS picking up most of Abreus salary in 2018. Clearly JBJ has more surplus value due to an additional year of team control.

Of course, I cant say I am really interested in JD for 200+ million and trading JBJ makes a Stanton deal even more improbable than it is.

I am wondering if Bautista might be worth a shot if he could learn to play 1B. If he busts they can can correct this at the trade deadline. But some nice upside there if he can comeback. He should be cheap even if incentives are reached

I also like the Todd Frazier idea by grimshaw

 

[MikeM]

Yet another fairly cheap, mediocre option.

Which likely eliminates Frazier out of DD's consideration pool right off the bat.

I'm warming more to the concept of Abreu being DD's guy here the more I think about it today. At least while not losing sight of what exactly a single player upgrade addition would be trying to accomplish here - a cleanup hitter who ideally adds the 30 HR threat to a GFIN lineup that doesn't currently have one (heck, Betts is probably the only genuinely bankable bet atm to stick around and hit more then 20)

Abreu does have the shorter years commitment lining up with the already huge post-2019 question mark, and probably the highest "you can't afford to miss on this one" floor bat on the table (imo) of any FA first baseman being discussed. If the price ends up being Bradley+ and the need to then replace Jackie's .240/.320/.400'ish bat in the OF, I'm guessing there would be a strong possibility that he jumps on that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

But some nice upside there if he can comeback.

I think it's a stretch to talk about the "upside" of a 37-year-old who's been declining for three straight years and was a replacement-level player last year. And it wasn't injuries, either; at least, they weren't bad enough to keep him from playing 157 games. He was just bad. His HR/FB went down to 11.9%, while his K rate ballooned to 24.8% (from just 15.9% two years ago; contact has always been one of his strengths). If you go to Brooks and look at his zone profile, you can see how his power zone has contracted over the past several years. Here it was in 2014:

Now in 2017:

Taking a flyer on a Bautista comeback might make sense for an AL team that (a) is well under the luxury tax limit, and so can afford to spend one-year FA money on a crapshoot; (b) has an outside shot at playoff contention, but not such a good shot that it becomes a bad tactic to invest in a reclamation project; (c) has an opening at DH. The Sox fall into none of those categories.

 

[sean1562]

Cameron thought JBJ for Abreu was such a bad idea he wrote an article about it.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-jackie-bradley-for-jose-abreu/

 

[MikeM]

Cameron thought JBJ for Abreu was such a bad idea he wrote an article about it.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-jackie-bradley-for-jose-abreu/

So in essence his presented alternative solution is that we keep Bradley, and essentially pass on Abreu in favor of signing a lesser hitter Santana to an equally hefty per/year contract that might extend 2 additional years beyond our current GFIN window. Plus give up our 2nd and 5th round pick in next year's draft, of course.

I wonder how much support that concept would actually get here if the roles were reversed, and this Red Sox team/roster right now was looking to trade *their* Jose Abreu for a Jackie Bradley + Santana FA signing. Guessing there would be a lot more cheap platoon option ideas in LF being floated around that we'd be better off exploring first.

 

[johnnywayback]

I would be thrilled to trade my Jose Abreu for your Jackie Bradley, especially if there was a chance to sign Carlos Santana to play 1B in Abreu’s stead. Thrilled. Bradley is way more valuable.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I would be thrilled to trade my Jose Abreu for your Jackie Bradley, especially if there was a chance to sign Carlos Santana to play 1B in Abreu’s stead. Thrilled. Bradley is way more valuable.

People keep saying this but I'm not sure it's true. Even Cameron described it as closer to a lateral move (if they made the swap). Seeing them as equal value is more of a reasonable position, but even that ignores the possibility that 2016 was an outlier and that Bradley is closer to a league average player going forward while Abreu is probably a 3 win player or better. For a quick glance, Abreu has fWARs of 5.3, 3.2, 1.8 and 4.1. Bradley is at 0.5, 2.5, 5.0 and 2.3 in the same span. If we go with rWAR it's 5.5, 3.8, 2.8 and 4.7 vs 0.7, 2.2, 5.3, 2.8.

I don't think there's any reason to assume either is their best year, but it seems a whole lot safer to bet on 3+ wins from Abreu than from JBJ next year.

Obviously JBJ brings more defensive value to the table, but Abreu is a far better hitter and that's a whole lot more reliable. And that's before we consider the possibility that we (as fans) have overrated JBJ's glove a little. He's been worth 9.5 UZR over the last three years. That's not an elite defender if it's accurate, and as a three year sample it should be stable. B-R's defensive runs saved per 1200 innings seems to like him more, but I don't think we can take it for granted that he's an elite defender. Whatever his defensive value, it's not closing the gap between him and Abreu in the metrics that try to tally holistic value. And while that's not the end of the discussion, it does raise questions at least.

I like JBJ. A lot. And I think Cameron is probably right in that swapping JBJ for Abreu is sort of just rearranging the furniture and that might not be the best way to use resources this winter, so a one for one swap may not be worth it. But I can't see any reason to believe that JBJ is "way more valuable" than Jose Abreu.

 

[johnnywayback]

People keep saying this but I'm not sure it's true. Even Cameron described it as closer to a lateral move (if they made the swap). Seeing them as equal value is more of a reasonable position, but even that ignores the possibility that 2016 was an outlier and that Bradley is closer to a league average player going forward while Abreu is probably a 3 win player or better. For a quick glance, Abreu has fWARs of 5.3, 3.2, 1.8 and 4.1. Bradley is at 0.5, 2.5, 5.0 and 2.3 in the same span. If we go with rWAR it's 5.5, 3.8, 2.8 and 4.7 vs 0.7, 2.2, 5.3, 2.8.

I don't think there's any reason to assume either is their best year, but it seems a whole lot safer to bet on 3+ wins from Abreu than from JBJ next year.

Obviously JBJ brings more defensive value to the table, but Abreu is a far better hitter and that's a whole lot more reliable. And that's before we consider the possibility that we (as fans) have overrated JBJ's glove a little. He's been worth 9.5 UZR over the last three years. That's not an elite defender if it's accurate, and as a three year sample it should be stable. B-R's defensive runs saved per 1200 innings seems to like him more, but I don't think we can take it for granted that he's an elite defender. Whatever his defensive value, it's not closing the gap between him and Abreu in the metrics that try to tally holistic value. And while that's not the end of the discussion, it does raise questions at least.

I like JBJ. A lot. And I think Cameron is probably right in that swapping JBJ for Abreu is sort of just rearranging the furniture and that might not be the best way to use resources this winter, so a one for one swap may not be worth it. But I can't see any reason to believe that JBJ is "way more valuable" than Jose Abreu.

It's three years of JBJ vs. two years of Abreu, JBJ is three years younger, Abreu costs more, and Abreu's skillset is easier to find on the open market than JBJ's. The question isn't whether JBJ is better, it's whether he's more valuable, and it's clear that he is, by far.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It's three years of JBJ vs. two years of Abreu, JBJ is three years younger, Abreu costs more, and Abreu's skillset is easier to find on the open market than JBJ's. The question isn't whether JBJ is better, it's whether he's more valuable, and it's clear that he is, by far.

Years of control are what matters, not age. Unless you think Abreu's age means he'll fall off a cliff (and I see no reason to believe that), JBJ being younger means, roughly, squat. And since the Red Sox are looking at a very distinct 2 year window, I'm not sure how much that third year of control means to them anyway. But unless you assume 2016 wasn't an outlier for JBJ, he looks like a little bit better than an average player overall. I'd be willing to bet that Abreu's value over the next 2 years is similar to JBJ's over the next three. (within the span of 2 WAR... the value of an average player).

And that's before we consider the fact that value is relative, not fixed and not existing in a vacuum. The Red Sox need more power in their lineup. Abreu offers that. The Red Sox have two other starting caliber outfielders who can man CF, meaning JBJ's defense has less value to them than it would to a team without very good or better defenders.

And while there are more first basemen that hit home runs on the open market right now, none of them are as good as Abreu and most of them carry substantially more risk. JBJ for Abreu would be a classic example of trading from strength to fill a need. It probably shouldn't be plan A, given the existence of JD Martinez on the market, but if the team feels his asking price won't come down to what they are comfortable with, or that they won't be able to lock him up early enough to avoid the risk of being left with no chair to sit in when the music stops, Abreu is a fantastic plan B.

If Martinez won't sign during the winter meetings, I imagine Dombrowski will shift his attention to the White Sox. And if it costs JBJ to get it done, he'll do it, and it won't be a travesty.

 

[nvalvo]

In 2016, Bradley was a better *hitter* than Abreu, even in power categories. Now, that was Abreu's worst offensive season to date and Bradley's best, but Bradley's entering his age 28 season and Abreu will be 31.

The defensive difference between an okay 1B and a good CF is obviously considerable.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

In 2016, Bradley was a better *hitter* than Abreu, even in power categories. Now, that was Abreu's worst offensive season to date and Bradley's best, but Bradley's entering his age 28 season and Abreu will be 31.

The defensive difference between an okay 1B and a good CF is obviously considerable.

And if that defensive value was enough to make Bradley the far more valuable player, it would show up somewhere. It doesn't. Of course, if you believe Bradley's true talent is closer to 2016 than either 2015 or 2017, you'll scoff at the idea that Abreu is similarly valuable. I think that's probably a poor bet do make, however.

 

[Plympton91]

And if that defensive value was enough to make Bradley the far more valuable player, it would show up somewhere. It doesn't. Of course, if you believe Bradley's true talent is closer to 2016 than either 2015 or 2017, you'll scoff at the idea that Abreu is similarly valuable. I think that's probably a poor bet do make, however.

You’re putting an awful lot of precision on defensive stats that are as context dependent as RBIs. Consider two seasons by the same CF. In one season he is playing next to Mookie Betts, in another season he is playing next to Kevin Mitchell. In which season will the current defensive metrics say he was better?

Has anyone been using STaTCasT yet to come up with something better than Is currently available?

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Bradley is more valuable on paper because we've attempted to boil down his defense to a single numerical value. I and others on here have studied defense significantly and many formulas have attempted to boil it down to that single value. It's not a clear task and it's why I detest using defensive WAR (or an equivalent) as the sole metric for defense. Properly assessing how much credit goes to the fielder vs. the pitcher, what is routine vs. what isn't is far from an exact science. When you try to compare defensive WAR on guys at different positions you're really stretching the logic thin. I encourage those that haven't read it to read Bill James' Win Shares book where he discusses these (and other) problems as a precursor to WAR.

Having said all that, this team had a hole on offense and the obvious areas for upgrade would be JBJ and Moreland. It's not unreasonable to say that on paper if we signed JD Martinez to play left and traded JBJ for Abreu we would have a better offense and worse defense. Perhaps an alternative would be trade JBJ for Abreu and signing Lorenzo Cain. I have no idea what people are predicting Cain's salary comes in at, but I have to imagine it would be significantly less than JD Martinez.

 

[chawson]

Having said all that, this team had a hole on offense and the obvious areas for upgrade would be JBJ and Moreland. It's not unreasonable to say that on paper if we signed JD Martinez to play left and traded JBJ for Abreu we would have a better offense and worse defense. Perhaps an alternative would be trade JBJ for Abreu and signing Lorenzo Cain. I have no idea what people are predicting Cain's salary comes in at, but I have to imagine it would be significantly less than JD Martinez.

Is that obvious? From 2016-17, the only center fielders with a better bat than JBJ are Trout, Blackmon, Springer, Yelich, Fowler, McCutchen and Granderson. Three of those guys are moving to a corner, and Bradley's better defensively than all of them. Cain's a similar hitter, but he's four years older.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

And if that defensive value was enough to make Bradley the far more valuable player, it would show up somewhere. It doesn't. Of course, if you believe Bradley's true talent is closer to 2016 than either 2015 or 2017, you'll scoff at the idea that Abreu is similarly valuable. I think that's probably a poor bet do make, however.

JBJ's 2015 is closer to his 2016 performance than his 2017 one. Over a full season, he would have been worth 4-5 wins. I think they are of similar value if their contract situations were the same. JBJ is cheaper and has 1 more year of control.

If JBJ does have more value than Abreu, he isn't going to be traded for Brandon Belt either.

 

[chawson]

JBJ's 2015 is closer to his 2016 performance than his 2017 one. Over a full season, he would have been worth 4-5 wins. I think they are of similar value if their contract situations were the same. JBJ is cheaper and has 1 more year of control.

If JBJ does have more value than Abreu, he isn't going to be traded for Brandon Belt either.

This is true. Though JBJ and someone like Travis/Ockimey/Dalbec for Belt and Heliot Ramos would be interesting. Trade for a pre-breakout guy like Grichuk or Castellanos for left (taking on salary if you have to) if you can't sign JDM.

 

[PapaSox]

Bradley is more valuable on paper because we've attempted to boil down his defense to a single numerical value. I and others on here have studied defense significantly and many formulas have attempted to boil it down to that single value. It's not a clear task and it's why I detest using defensive WAR (or an equivalent) as the sole metric for defense. Properly assessing how much credit goes to the fielder vs. the pitcher, what is routine vs. what isn't is far from an exact science. When you try to compare defensive WAR on guys at different positions you're really stretching the logic thin. I encourage those that haven't read it to read Bill James' Win Shares book where he discusses these (and other) problems as a precursor to WAR.

Remove text for brevity.

I agree with your assessment of trying to define a players overall defensive value to a club. That being said I find it a tad difficult to want to trade a player who has shown extreme defensive capabilities only to create a hole that requires signing a FA to fill. The need is to provide a player that upgrades offensively either 1B or DH spot. We can all agree the farm is a little low on players of value to make a significant trade. The pen may have a couple of extra arms but between them and the farm there is not a lot to offer. Rather than subtracting from the ML roster a player who has struggled offensively but has significant defensive abilities to come up with a package to trade for another player at a completely different position the Sox should stay the course and fill the position that requires filling. Sure if the Sox want to deplete the farm and take a few extra arms out of the pen to get Abreu then fine. Otherwise, sign a Santana, Hosmer or other such player for 1B and be done with it.

Naturally, FWIW this is simply my HO

 

[BaseballJones]

I think part of the equation is how valuable a player is *TO A PARTICULAR TEAM*. So to use a football example... To the Patriots, maybe Jacoby Brissett doesn't hold a ton of value because he's just a third string guy behind Brady and Garoppolo. But to a team like Indy, who needed a starting QB, Brissett is hugely valuable. Or at least moreso than for New England. Hence, the trade.

 

[grimshaw]

I lean more conservatively on JBJ. Though I'm convinced Bradley for Abreu is an overpay, Cameron's offhand comment during the chat made it sound as though he believed it wasn't close between him and Abreu, but then he went back and did some homework and it looks like he backed off of his comment a bit.

Steamer is projecting Bradley fora wRC+ 104 which is not a good sign for those of us hoping for 2015-'16 redux. Its a projection, that basically splits the difference between good Bradley and bad Bradley. I don't think any of us have the slightest idea what hitter he is going to be going forward and neither does Steamer.

Defense peaks early too. He needs to improve with the bat because he will lose defensive value going forward.

 

[nvalvo]

I have no idea what people are predicting Cain's salary comes in at, but I have to imagine it would be significantly less than JD Martinez.

People are seeing him approach Dexter Fowler's 5/$82.5.

You’re putting an awful lot of precision on defensive stats that are as context dependent as RBIs. Consider two seasons by the same CF. In one season he is playing next to Mookie Betts, in another season he is playing next to Kevin Mitchell. In which season will the current defensive metrics say he was better?

Has anyone been using STaTCasT yet to come up with something better than Is currently available?

Yes, only for OF so far. The resulting stat (available at baseballsavant) sees Bradley ranked 8th for 2017.

Buxton +25 outs (the stat is denominated in outs, which is less than ideal)
Inciarte +19
Betts +16
Engel +16
Cain +15
Kiermaier +12
Heyward +11
Bradley +11
Herrera +10
Hamilton +10

This is denominated in outs, however, and I see why — to do it in runs would require making judgments about what would have happened in the case of plays not made — but it means conversions to the run-based metrics we're used to plugging into WAR is imprecise at best.

JBJ's 2015 is closer to his 2016 performance than his 2017 one. Over a full season, he would have been worth 4-5 wins. I think they are of similar value if their contract situations were the same. JBJ is cheaper and has 1 more year of control.

If JBJ does have more value than Abreu, he isn't going to be traded for Brandon Belt either.

Agreed on all counts.

Defense peaks early too. He needs to improve with the bat because he will lose defensive value going forward.

I'm not proposing extending him. I just don't want to trade him for seventy cents on the dollar.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Did JBJ kick someone’s dog?

I think part of the equation is how valuable a player is *TO A PARTICULAR TEAM*. So to use a football example... To the Patriots, maybe Jacoby Brissett doesn't hold a ton of value because he's just a third string guy behind Brady and Garoppolo. But to a team like Indy, who needed a starting QB, Brissett is hugely valuable. Or at least moreso than for New England. Hence, the trade.

So how does the plethora of unsigned 1B options factor into this evaluation?

Look, I do get that most people who are posting to trade JBJ want to do so primarily to free up that 3rd outfield spot for JD Martinez. Offensively, that should provide a huge upgrade.

But with Boras representing like every single long-term FA contract that’s likely to be signed this offseason, trading JBJ for Abreu first, before signing JDM, would undoubtedly put DDski in a crippled negotiating position. $200MM would be back on the table, just like that.

Poor Trader Dave...this offseason’s pace of action has to be killing him!

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

That being said I find it a tad difficult to want to trade a player who has shown extreme defensive capabilities only to create a hole that requires signing a FA to fill.

Defensive value is relative to the competitive context, and JBJ is playing in the context of a glut of outstanding defensive centerfield talent that we haven't seen since at least the mid-90s when Devon White, Lofton, Grissom, and Darren Lewis were all plying their trade at once. In this specific context, I don't think his defensive capabilities can be called "extreme", or even extraordinary. Excellent? Certainly.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I really hope DD values the defensive ability of JBJ over the offensive ability of Jose Abreu. Seems like a great trade for you guys and no-brainer, although the last couple pages in this thread surprised me at how much value is applied to JBJ.

 

[MikeM]

In 2016, Bradley was a better *hitter* than Abreu, even in power categories. Now, that was Abreu's worst offensive season to date and Bradley's best, but Bradley's entering his age 28 season and Abreu will be 31.

Bradley was a better hitter then Abreu in the *first half* of 2016. Since then, and before, Abreu has been extremely consistent. Exactly the type of guy DD can set and forget in the 4 hole of our lineup for that matter.

JBJ's 2015 is closer to his 2016 performance than his 2017 one. Over a full season, he would have been worth 4-5 wins. I think they are of similar value if their contract situations were the same. JBJ is cheaper and has 1 more year of control.

So now JBJ's "season" in 2015 is somehow more predictive in the grander scheme of things then a full 2017 campaign that saw him clock in as a below average MLB hitter?

At some point you have to stop hanging your hat on the SSS flashes of upside imo.

 

[jon abbey]

I really hope DD values the defensive ability of JBJ over the offensive ability of Jose Abreu. Seems like a great trade for you guys and no-brainer, although the last couple pages in this thread surprised me at how much value is applied to JBJ.

Funny, I think the exact opposite as a Yankee fan, I would be thrilled to not see JBJ in CF for BOS in their 19 games against NY every year, as he seems to steal a hit or two almost every game.

 

[moondog80]

Am I correct that the source of JBJ for Abreu, which warranted a column by Dave Cameron, was a report that they had discussed Abreu, and the JBJ part came from some guy on a fangraphs chat?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

So now JBJ's "season" in 2015 is somehow more predictive in the grander scheme of things then a full 2017 campaign that saw him clock in as a below average MLB hitter?

At some point you have to stop hanging your hat on the SSS flashes of upside imo.

Where did I say it was more predictive? I just said it was closer to his 2016 performance than his 2017 one, which is true.