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Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Devizier, Oct 20, 2017.

  1. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    If it were a first rounder sure, but they are picking near the end of the 2nd round. The odds of them drafting a great player are low, and way less for a 5th rounder. This is an interesting article on how much draft picks are actually worth. https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/how-much-is-a-draft-pick-worth-in-2014/

    Since 2005 - here have been their 2nd rounders. Jonathan Egan, Justin Masterson, Hunter Morris, Ryan Dent, Alex Wilson, Brandon Workman, Jerez Williams, Jamie Callahan, Ted Stanciwiecz, Sam Travis.

    Unfortunately so was Lester and Pedey so it could obviously burn them, but the odds are fairly low. I'm sure they've circled who they want this draft and that is a factor.

    If they can get Santana for something like 3/50 as opposed to whatever nuts figure Boras holds out for, then the extra money is still there to compensate for the draft pick loss.
     
    #701 grimshaw, Dec 5, 2017 at 12:13 PM
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017 at 12:25 PM
  2. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Thing is, it's not just the quality of the player that they may or may not be missing out on. If they lose their 2nd round pick, they're losing the pick's value in bonus money. In 2017, the Red Sox's second round pick was worth nearly $1M in bonus pool money ($993K). So even if they're not getting a player there, they're still hamstringing their ability to sign the picks that they do make including their first rounder.
     
  3. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Yeah, this is what people need to keep in mind with the new CBA and the recent (last CBA) changes to the draft. You're not just losing picks, you are taking a serious hit to your ability to sign your picks. And while it didn't impact the Red Sox last year, not being able to throw money at rounds 11-40 (anything over the limit for that year... 125K last year I think... counts toward your pool for rounds 1-10) could hamper efforts to add depth to a draft class.

    And the 500K of lost IFA money isn't an insignificant loss either.
     
  4. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

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    It's amazing to me that the MLBPA signed off on this deal. Hate to say it, but they seem to be slipping under Tony Clark's leadership - they seemed to do better with professional union guys calling the shots. One of their big issues was eliminating, or at least reducing, the drag on the FA market. They ostensibly got a "win" by changing the rules for the QO, by making it a one-time only thing, but the penalties for signing QO FAs by high-salary teams have an impact, and they didn't bargain for much of an increase in the luxury tax thresholds (which they probably should have indexed to revenues, looking back to the revenue increases during the term of the last CBA to set the initial figure for 2017). And the penalties for exceeding the higher CBT thresholds are really severe. We already saw the Sox fight to get below the luxury tax line last year, and the Yankees apparently this year, and it also seems to be complicating the Giants' efforts to improve their roster. I guess the agents didn't have enough clout to keep the union from agreeing to this, but the players' share of revenues keeps dropping.
     
  5. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    All the more reason why a Carlos Santana signing should be ranking right behind Hosmer this winter as #2 on the "what not to do" list.

    I think people are generally getting too carried away with the mix/max'y surface appeal there. Which might make more sense to me had he repeated his more tangible 2016 season results in 2017, and you otherwise weren't essentially left paying out a very high premium for what's probably 1-2 years too many on a league average 1B bat. Who likely ends up being a negative value trade asset the moment he comes off the lot, and that probably just serves to help modestly improve the lineup problem more so then he'll really go on to "solve" anything.

    Personally, I'm not *that* in love with Santana's better bet OBP skills that he's worth the all the extra potential sacrifice that goes into it. As skeptical overall as I am with Morrison, he's growing on me as being the much better/safer fall back bet for DD here if he can't secure at least an Abreu level bat.
     
    #705 MikeM, Dec 5, 2017 at 1:35 PM
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017 at 1:42 PM
  6. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Again, he's a fine fallback. They can't do nothing this winter, so if Abreu is too expensive and JD Martinez won't sign until Christmas (they can't wait that long and risk not landing anyone) and no other trade options are looking attainable, grabbing Santana at least upgrades first base from last year to a significant degree.

    If his asking price is up where Hosmer is currently hanging out, then yeah... you walk away. But if the current estimates (3/45 - 3/50) are accurate, he's an excellent value (even after accounting for the QO penalty) and plugs a hole nicely.

    I'm guessing Dombrowski signs Martinez during the winter meetings, though, and that the AAV makes us cringe. He'll have to overpay to get him to agree early.
     
  7. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I'd prefer Morrison over Hosmer and CMart but if 3/45 is really all it takes, my opinion definitely changes on that, even with the pick attached.
     
  8. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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  9. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    There's also a pretty good chance you can walk out of this winter and limited landing spot interest market paying less then half that on Morrison, while not taking on the extra risk or future roster flexibility concern. I'd want to see the actual contract difference between the two first.

    Again, if we aren't going for it with the minimum of adding an Abreu level bat then I'll personally take the greater room for error there. For me it's not a simple matter of Santana replicating his 2017 season and then claiming that off as a value win for us at the end of the day because it pointed out at 3.6 WAR. There is just too solid a chance we end up being wrong there in terms of whether or not the fit is actually going to work in terms of being good enough offensively (especially in a potential playoff run) given the roster construction around it.

    The prospect of safely setting on Santana isn't an appealing option imo. I'd rather just take the additional floor gamble on Morrison replicating his 2017 power surge.
     
  10. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    So, how about the Sox sign Carlos Santana to an early, reasonable deal, trade Pomeranz for Ian Happ to be the Pedroia fill-in and then super-sub (I can't imagine the Sox will re-sign Pomeranz after next season), and then sign Alex Cobb for 3ish years. If there's still some room under the $237 million threshold, offer Lucroy a one-year deal .
     
  11. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Why in the world do you want Lucroy?
     
  12. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    1. "Early, reasonable deal" is an oxymoron.
    2. Pomeranz for Happ is bad for both teams. You don't trade a second-year player of Happ's potential for a one-year SP rental. But at the same time, when you have a SP of Pomeranz's ability, and you expect to contend, you don't trade him over the winter for a guy whose role on your roster is going to be "supersub" after the first month or two, and then make up for it by signing a more costly FA pitcher. It's just a bad fit. If we were punting or semi-punting 2018, it might make sense. As it is, not so much.
    3. As E5 said, why do we want Lucroy? To play first? But we've signed Santana for that in your scenario. I certainly don't want him replacing Vazquez, and I'm highly skeptical that Vazquez' offense is repeatable.
     
  13. Yo La Tengo

    Yo La Tengo Member SoSH Member

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    1. As for "early, reasonable" Encarnacion signed his deal last year on 12/22. This year's market is slow to develop and I think there's an unusual opportunity to strike early where there is a glut of 1B types available, plus Stanton and JD Martinez holding up the process. In addition, Santana has already earned $30+ million, so, there's a chance he'd rather be sure to play for a contender than risk waiting things out. (Also, the anticipated numbers for Santana's next contract already seem pretty reasonable.)
    2. I think the Cubs option is moot, as they just signed Chatwood. But, as that signing just showed, the Cubs were looking to lock in a young pitcher. As for Happ, I imagined him as the regular 2B until Pedroia comes back, and then he could back up 1B, 2B, 3B and he also played 82 games in the outfield last year. That could allow a rotation at DH if Hanley doesn't pan out (or even if he is adequate in order to keep his games played in check with regard to the vesting option). As for Cobb, it looks like the Sox have a good shot to contend the next two seasons but would likely not want to spend big on Pomeranz beyond that. So what's the plan? Let him walk for nothing after 2018? I'd look to trade him if Cobb was available on a 3 year deal in order to maximize that competitive window.
    3. And Lucroy has been a ~top-5 catcher for 5 seasons prior to last year. And, after a bad start to the season in 2017, he had a good remainder of the year, putting up solid offensive numbers at Coors and on the road. (I will note that his once other-worldly pitch framing skills appear to be in decline.) I'd definitely pair him with Vazquez as the catching duo and let him fill in on occasion at First or DH. I think he's undervalued and might be available for relatively cheap, although that might be visions of Adrian Beltre dancing in my head.
     
    #713 Yo La Tengo, Dec 7, 2017 at 8:43 PM
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2017 at 8:50 PM
  14. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    So when the Dodgers decide to turn their attention to Stanton (who essentially kills off the Giants deal once his preferred team is in play) after they lose out on Ohtani to the M's, would we have the chips to then make a play at Grandel/Puig to help wrap that process up in a tighter bow? Given both those guys are potential outside-the-box upgrade fits here, and likely to go in the aftermath of LA making roster/salary room anyway.

    1. Xander
    2. Ben10
    3. Betts
    4. Morrison
    5. Puig
    6. Devers
    7. Hanley
    8. Grendal (Vaz lesser platoon)
    9. Pedroia fill in

    Decent across the board power upgrade in a more balanced approach, and with my included preference of going for a cheaper Morrison over Santana out of FA.
     
  15. keninten

    keninten lurker

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    Who are we trading for Grandal/Puig? Just Bradley/Swihart/Leon? Getting Grandal would lose us Swihart/Leon anyways but I doubt the Dodgers would be interested in Leon or Swihart. Bradley wouldn`t be of much use to them either. So who are we trading for them?
     
  16. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    That's why I put it down as a question myself. Grandal's value is probably somewhat limited being a rental, and I honestly don't have a good feel on what 2 years of Puig would command nowadays.

    Although I was also guessing it might be aimed more towards a 3 way scenario that saw us potentially simplifying the off-season process down for LA, while helping them fill in the Marlins end as well. Assuming LA won't even have to match the SF offer for that matter, since I can't see Miami *not* moving him if/when Stanton insists on LA.
     
    #716 MikeM, Dec 8, 2017 at 3:35 AM
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017 at 3:41 AM
  17. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Puig has all the check marks of being a disaster in Boston.
    -Chronic injuries, some legit, some Manny-esque
    -Awful baserunning https://www.fangraphs.com/community/yasiel-puig-was-a-terrible-terrible-baserunner/
    -Maturity issues (though those seem to have gotten better)
    -Never living up to his early potential. He was last a great hitter in 2014 and has been roughly Hanley since with lower peaks and valleys.
    -A brain fart a week

    And Grandal doesn't hit any better than 80% of what is already on the 1B market if you were thinking of moving him there. It's silly to give up anything in trade for either of those two when neither are sure upgrades nor help long term.
     
  18. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    You wouldn't move Grandal to 1B. He'd catch, while offering a significant offensive upgrade to what we have (especially once Vaz turns back into a pumpkin).

    I'll take the Puig flyer fit, warts and all, over Bradley in our current roster construction. Signing a FA like Morrison leaves 3 lineup spots that get notably upgraded for the rough cost of 1 JD Martinez, and with a much shorter/less risky commitment attached to it.
     
  19. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    First of all - JBJ has been at least Puig's equal if not better the past three seasons. I realize Puig dealt with injuries and it's risky to judge defensive weighted WAR but they are both projected by Steamer for 3 wins with both getting healthy offensive bumps from last year's production.

    This is without taking into account moving him over to left and bumping Beni to center which is going to hurt the defense. Puig is solid in the field, but that is wasted in Fenway and it would be a new position for him. As we have seen first hand, it's not always smooth.

    Second of all - the team had serious leadership issues last year even while winning the east, and bringing in a guy like Puig is not going to aid in that department.

    Thirdly - regardless of their overall production, there has been no indication at all that there is any desire by DD to upgrade at catcher. He's not a particularly subtle GM, and without any rumblings throughout the year and no indication that Alex Avila was on the radar at the deadline, I just really doubt that's a position where he values short term extra clout at the expense of all other catching intangibles from Vazquez' year head start working with all the pitchers. That is an underrated aspect of changing starting catchers from one year to the next.

    On paper there is a chance for extra run production but I think that is negated by losing JBJ's glove even before factoring Puig's big bust potential given the media and fans. If they do move JBJ then it ought to be packaged for a slam dunk upgrade. Otherwise I don't see the point.
     
    #719 grimshaw, Dec 8, 2017 at 5:48 AM
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017 at 5:58 AM
  20. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I want nothing to do with Morrison. I'd be absolutely shocked if he comes close to his 2017 production again. The chances that his 2017 was a breakout at age 29 rather than a career year (in a contract year... hmm) are extremely slim. If you are acquiring him and are planning on him being anything more than Moreland was last year, you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment. I wouldn't even bet on him hitting more home runs than Moreland next year, actually. That 38 is such a massive outlier.
     
  21. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Yup. And the thing about Morrison's 2017 is that it's pretty nearly the only thing he's got going for him. He doesn't have Hosmer's intriguing oppo tendencies, nor his reputation as a good clubhouse guy. He doesn't have Santana's durability or defensive chops, nor Duda's consistent year-to-year record of hitting the ball hard in the air. In this FA crowd he's more like Alonso than anybody else, yet he seems likely to cost more than Alonso, and it's not clear to me why. I'd call both of them fallback options, not targets.
     
  22. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Mitch Moreland’s oppo tendencies are only negligibly less than Hosmer and he hits a ton more fly balls.

    Moreland’s average fly ball distance — 185 ft.
    Hosmer’s average fly ball distance — 151 ft.
     
  23. Dewey'sCannon

    Dewey'sCannon lurker

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    I'd rather bring Moreland back than spend big bucks on Hosmer. And I'm very wary of LoMo, for both performance and character reasons.

    Puig is an intriguing idea. Assuming we move JBJ, then maybe they put Puig in RF and move Mookie back to CF, and take advantage of Puig's arm. But hard to see how we match up with LA - it would probably have to be a 3-way (SF?), and there would have to be other pieces involved. Seems like more of a fantasy trade than anything realistic.
     
  24. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Fat chance of engineering a three-way trade with two division rivals.

    Stanton to the Dodgers is an awful development for us. There’s no conceivable fit for us if they wanted to unload payroll besides possibly Puig. McCarthy in a swing role would interest me, but not at $10M. And it would galvanize the Giants to counter with JDM.

    At least a trade to the Yankees would clear them of some prospects and preclude them from going after Harper.
     
  25. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I'd much rather Stanton land with the Dodgers than the Yankees, and it's not even close. The hit to their farm system would be negligible (it's the deepest in the game), and 19 games a year against a middle of the order of Sanchez, Stanton, Judge is likely to have an impact on whether the Red Sox make the playoffs at all, while having a chance of running into Seager, Bellinger, Stanton in the WS would require them getting through at least two other opponents first.
     
  26. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure why you're posting this as a response to what I wrote. I was comparing Hosmer to Morrison, not Moreland.
     
  27. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    What are the numbers being tossed around for Logan Morrison? I see him as a guy they could sign to a cheap 1 year deal and cut ties with him if he sucks or is a clubhouse cancer. Is he really going to get much more than Moreland did last year?
     
  28. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Right, I know. I’m using Moreland as a familiar framework to illustrate how dumb a Hosmer signing would be. The best arguments for Hosmer — who wants something like 6/$120M — are already mostly present in a guy we had last year at 1/$5M.

    Another one is the slider thing. MLB pitchers are throwing more sliders than ever, probably because of changing bullpen dynamics. Most of those pitchers are in the AL East — and it’s particularly true of the Yankees, who throw far more than any other major league team.

    Hosmer hit .186 with a .289 SLG vs. sliders in 2017.
    Moreland hit .267 with a .493 SLG vs. sliders in 2017.

    Not saying the Sox should sign Moreland, necessarily. But they’re not dissimilar players, and it’s absurd to consider Hosmer at 20x the price.
     
    #728 chawson, Dec 8, 2017 at 12:38 PM
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017 at 12:44 PM
  29. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He hit .281/.371/.531 on a .291 BAbip in 396 PA from June on this past season. He also drew 45 walks while only striking out 59 times in that period. If it was straight up for JBJ, I'd make the trade on the hope Puig can/has returned to his 2013/14 levels. I can see why people wouldn't, but it's an interesting proposal. It's funny because if you flip their last 2 seasons around, Puig and JBJ are very similar. It could very well be a lateral move.

    edit: From 2015-2017
    Bradley .255/.337/.456, 107 OPS+ in 1432 PA
    Puig .261/.333/.453 110 OPS+ in 1249 PA.

    Crazy.
     
    #729 bosox79, Dec 8, 2017 at 1:01 PM
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2017 at 1:09 PM
  30. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Interesting similarity. But it’d be bad to trade three years of arb-priced JBJ for one year of Puig at $7.5M.
     
  31. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    If that's true, yeah. Baseball reference says Puig is controlled for 2 more years and I like what I saw from him last year.

    edit: He was a Cuban signing, so I don't know how it all works.
     
  32. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Spotrac and Cot’s saying just the one.
     
  33. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Puig is signed through 2018 but is still arbitration eligible in 2019, so he'd be under team control for two more years if acquired this winter.

    Still rather have JBJ for three.
     
  34. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Do you know if he have one of those clauses like Yoenis Cespedes? Probably not, it was a 7 year deal.
     
  35. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    He does not. The only clause in his contract is like the one Jose Abreu had in which he could opt out of the contract once he acquired 3+ years of service time and go year by year in arbitration instead. He hasn't exercised it.
     
  36. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Well, sorta. It depends on how much you take his recent* defensive numbers at face value vis-a-vis his reputation. He's certainly a better hitter than Moreland, because his contact and BABIP numbers are much better--and because his air contact is disproportionately to left field, the BABIP seems likely to remain a strength in a Sox uniform.

    Regardless, you're right that even if he's better than Moreland, he's not that much better. I think the two of them are a classic example of how the market tends to pull players from the middle of the spectrum to the extremes, and particularly, how it punishes players who are reliably fringe-average. Moreland is about a 1.5-win kind of guy, so he should be able to command a deal with an AAV around $12M. But nobody wants to pay market price for a 1.5-win guy, unless maybe he's a reliever. So he gets table scraps.

    As for Hosmer, all things considered I think you could make a case for a deal in the neighborhood of 5/90. But that seems like the upper edge of reasonable, especially in a 1B market this glutted, and he apparently is going to get more than that, and hopefully it won't be the Sox that give it to him.

    *After a rocky first couple of seasons, his DRS and UZR numbers were actually fine, a little better than average, until two years ago, when they slipped pretty suddenly. This raises red flags, since he's still in his 20s and didn't have a serious injury that I'm aware of. Did he really suddenly get a lot worse at playing defense? Or is there something else going on there?
     
  37. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    I think it's a fairly safe bet that Morrison gets more them Moreland, at least on the 1 year side, but it's certainly not a given he ends up anywhere near Santana for what basically amounts to the same market perception difference Savin Hillbilly hit on above.

    Again, people are getting too caught up in the min/max aspect in all this. Paying out a lot more on Santana in itself isn't really doing much (IMO) to make last year's grander scheme of things problem go away. I don't like Morrison there because he's the better bet to give us a solid season that still might not be enough to begin with. I like him as the much cheaper upside play aimed towards an already dicey situation, that you can more easily combine with something else to provide ourselves with a greater overall room for error. As even in the event Morrison falls short you can still potentially walk out of that scenario without doing the same amount of irrevocable damage you might while signing Santana.

    For example maybe Morrison does "fail" to be that slam dunk acquisition, but we still end up in a situation that sees us getting our value out of his much less prohibitive contract in the form of a platoon with Hanley. Which combined with the suggested Puig/Grandal addition, that was funded by the money you saved passing on Santana and trading Bradley away mind you, still ends up playing out to be enough of an overall upgrade.

    Maybe Morrison bust out altogether, or DD decides latter that this lineup simply can't win a championship without adding that slam dunk caliber bat he failed to add in the 2 previous winters. If we don't even end up having to commit to a guaranteed second year, or we end up talking about a market that squeezes Morrison into a smaller 2 year deal, the overall flexibility to change plans on the fly should still be there to do that too.
     
  38. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    For all the drooling going on over the unknown with Ohtani, Stanton to the Yankees still topped my list at #1 of the things I didn't want to see happen this winter.

    On that note I didn't like seeing the speculation today that they are on Stanton's preference list with LA. Especially with it already leaked that Miami is willing to bring the AAV down to $25m(?), and while basically backing themselves into a potential game of chicken that they obviously can't afford to lose.
     
  39. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Ya, I don't doubt Puig could regain some of his 2013-14 beastliness. He had a wRC+ of 117 last year and is projected 10 points higher this year. Coincidentally, JBJ is also projected to bounce back somewhat which is why I referenced Steamer having them both worth about 3 WAR. I think they are close in value straight up which is, as you mentioned a mostly lateral move on paper. So why do it when Bradley is one of your best chips?
     
  40. sean1562

    sean1562 lurker

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    I will believe any of Morrison, Moreland, Alonso, and Duda get anything more than inexpensive one year deals when I see it. Once hosmer is off the market(padres I guess?) I just don’t see a huge bidding war for those guys. They all have such obvious flaws and are such obvious regression candidates that I can’t see anybody thinking they are worth multi year investments.
     
  41. PapaSox

    PapaSox lurker

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  42. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Morrison and Alonso qualify as "obvious regression candidates," certainly. But why Moreland and Duda? Both of those have always been pretty much the same guy, except when hurt, and were that same guy last year. Moreland, particularly, had a remarkably career-typical year in all the rate stats.
     
  43. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    The nightmare of Stanton to NYY seems possible. They could still get under the LT by trading Headley and Gardner, or maybe just Gardner and getting CC real cheap. Doesn't seem like Jeter will demanding too much prospect wise, at least not enough to be felt too much by the Yankees.

    Jeter probably wants no part of helping Boston in his first major deal so even if DD had the means and inclination, which we know now he doesn't after preliminary discussions, its not happening.

    So worst case, Stanton to Yankees would make JDM a must for the Red Sox
     
  44. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Jeter isn't driving the bus, at least as far as Stanton is concerned. Stanton is going where ever he wants to go, provided there's mutual interest. Thus far, all signs are he has no interest in coming to Boston (and it isn't likely to change), but if he suddenly decided that it was Boston or nothing, Jeter would do the deal without hesitation.

    Also, what the Yankees do should have zero bearing on who the Red Sox target and/or sign. Arms races never work out for the team trying to "keep up".
     
  45. Hank Scorpio

    Hank Scorpio Member SoSH Member

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    Stanton has reportedly told both SF and STL he will not waive his NTC.

    I feel like the Marlins screwed themselves here, by being so transparent about their urgency to unload Stanton. At this point, Stanton has the leverage to pick any team he wants, and if he insists on that one team, then that team can basically name their price. Feels like a massive tactical error on their part.
     
  46. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    As the MLBTR comment thread suggests, the Marlins might decide to instead cut costs with a purge of arb-level payroll. They could make up the bulk of Stanton's salary by replacing Ozuna, Yelich, Volquez, and some combination of Realmuto/Bour/Dietrich/Ramos/Tazawa with pre-arb guys. Yes, this would probably make them a terrible team for the next few years, but possibly a quite good team starting around 2021, and it would have the fringe benefit of making it more likely that Stanton opts out when the time comes. It's a scorched-earth strategy, but it might make more sense than selling Stanton for pennies on the dollar.
     
  47. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    6,239
    Interesting strategy, but as you noted, they could be quite a good team starting in 2021, possibly earlier. Since he can't opt out until the end of 2020, maybe he decides to stick around with the young core if things start coming together in 2020 and they win 80ish games. Trading most/all those players would leave the Marlins with a loaded farm and a bright future.

    Ironically, if teams knew for a fact he would opt out after 2020, the Marlins would have 29 teams making real offers. Not sure it matters, since he'd refuse to go to most of them.
     
  48. kevinengel

    kevinengel lurker

    Messages:
    4
    What would get the Brewers talking about Domingo Santana? They're looking at adding "front line" pitching. Their payroll has been in the $60M range the last two years but was closer to 100M in 2010-2015. Could we talk them into swapping Price(pipe dream), Pomeranz or Porcello? Adding him early in the offseason while lowering payroll could leave us with a lot of options.
     
  49. Tyrone Biggums

    Tyrone Biggums nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,625
    I’m sorry but the Sox need to find a way to get some kind of prospects and take all of the money on Stanton’s contract to stop him from going to MFY. I’m visibly ill right now at the thought of a Stanton Judge Harper middle of the order in a couple years.
     
  50. BoSoxFink

    BoSoxFink Stripes SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,009
    Fucking Sox blow another one. Stanton going to the yanks sews up the division for the yanks for many years now. They blew it
     

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