Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

chawson

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Am I correct that the source of JBJ for Abreu, which warranted a column by Dave Cameron, was a report that they had discussed Abreu, and the JBJ part came from some guy on a fangraphs chat?
Heyman tweeted Wednesday that the White Sox had been in "active talks with Red Sox and others" on Abreu. The JBJ part was inference afaik.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Funny, I think the exact opposite as a Yankee fan, I would be thrilled to not see JBJ in CF for BOS in their 19 games against NY every year, as he seems to steal a hit or two almost every game.
Is he going to save more hits + hit more than Abreu will provide on offense? I doubt it. There wasn't a bat in that lineup last year that any team was afraid of. Abreu + JBJ replacement will make them a much more complete team.
 

jon abbey

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Is he going to save more hits + hit more than Abreu will provide on offense? I doubt it. There wasn't a bat in that lineup last year that any team was afraid of. Abreu + JBJ replacement will make them a much more complete team.
Agree to disagree given the alternatives, but that's what this whole thread has been about so I will stand down.
 

grimshaw

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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5434/giancarlo-stanton
"According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton."

This is the same offer from upthread - but details that 45 million would also be absorbed by the Marlins. If the Red Sox took on the whole contract, they could easily beat that offer. I'm guessing the Marlins haven't found teams willing to eat the whole thing so far.
 

MikeM

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Where did I say it was more predictive? I just said it was closer to his 2016 performance than his 2017 one, which is true.
In terms of where you are projecting/predicting Bradley's current value to reside at I'm guessing that it's getting a lot more weight then it should imo.

Point being that any positive value to be gained out of 2015 is essentially just reaching at a fairly outdated SSS hot stretch, and which shouldn't actually move the needle here any. Especially from the current Red Sox roster construction POV.
 

chawson

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Bradley began the year with a knee sprain. He came back and was cold and sat for two weeks in favor of Chris Young, returning to the starting lineup on May 10. He sprained his thumb August 22 and hit .188/.250/.323 over 104 PAs the rest of the way.

Between those dates, he hit .274/.358/.451 over 372 PAs. That's good for a .346 wOBA, which would slot 8th among CFs in 2017. He hit the ball hard at a 35.7% rate in that time. After spraining the thumb, his hard hit ball rate was 23.6%.

Maybe folks feel like that's cherrypicking, but the evidence suggests he was clearly hurt for long stretches last year. He's not in decline.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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You’re putting an awful lot of precision on defensive stats that are as context dependent as RBIs. Consider two seasons by the same CF. In one season he is playing next to Mookie Betts, in another season he is playing next to Kevin Mitchell. In which season will the current defensive metrics say he was better?

Has anyone been using STaTCasT yet to come up with something better than Is currently available?
Statcast data isn't fully available to the public, unfortunately. Regardless, I wasn't relying on insufficient samples of defensive data when I posted. Over the last three years, JBJ is worth 9.5 UZR combined. That's a good, but not great defender. We might be overvaluing his glove, even if you take that UZR total with a grain of salt, despite the fully stable sample size (I still do).

Regardless, I was simply pointing out that we are taking it for granted that his defense is so much more valuable than Abreu's that he has to be the more valuable piece when, in fact, that isn't certain.
 

MikeM

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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5434/giancarlo-stanton
"According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton."

This is the same offer from upthread - but details that 45 million would also be absorbed by the Marlins. If the Red Sox took on the whole contract, they could easily beat that offer. I'm guessing the Marlins haven't found teams willing to eat the whole thing so far.
That the Marlins would take that deal and be willing to eat that much money comes as a surprise imo.

Probably the best news possible at that for those still holding out hope that we sign JD.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Maybe folks feel like that's cherrypicking, but the evidence suggests he was clearly hurt for long stretches last year. He's not in decline.
I'm not arguing that he's in decline. I'm pointing out that he's probably not a 5 win player. There's a big difference there.
 

grimshaw

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That the Marlins would take that deal and be willing to eat that much money comes as a surprise imo.

Probably the best news possible at that for those still holding out hope that we sign JD.
Same. I assumed the Giants would have to take on just about all, if not more than what Boston would in order to compete for a deal given both farms.

It's an oddly specific leak.
 

Wayapman

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Regarding JBJ's defensive value, forgive my ignorance but do any of these stats accurately take into account JBJ's arm?

Even with the decline in strength and accuracy last year, I would still venture to guess he has one of the top 5 CF arms in MLB. All the times that people don't test him going 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home are extremely difficult to quantify into a stat
 

Green Monster

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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5434/giancarlo-stanton
"According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton."

This is the same offer from upthread - but details that 45 million would also be absorbed by the Marlins. If the Red Sox took on the whole contract, they could easily beat that offer. I'm guessing the Marlins haven't found teams willing to eat the whole thing so far.
Is there any evidence that Stanton has approved a trade to Boston? The Marlins have to find the best offer from the teams he is willing to be traded to.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is there any evidence that Stanton has approved a trade to Boston? The Marlins have to find the best offer from the teams he is willing to be traded to.
Agreed. All reports I've seen say he wants to go to the west coast. Until the Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Angels, A's and Mariners all say no thanks (not they can't make an offer that the Marlins like, but they don't want to do a deal at all), I don't think there's much chance at all that the Red Sox are considered. They may stay involved and in contact with the Marlins just in case, but when the time comes and Stanton is moved, any talk about "the Sox could have beaten that offer" is futile unless he ends up in New York or something.
 

edoug

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Aren't the Giants after Dee Gordon as well? He's due to make almost 52 mill in the next four seasons.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Followup thought to the JBJ for Abreu discussion. If they did make that move, what about Carlos Gomez on a short contract? He's probably about a league average bat who had an up year in 2017, but he's still about an average defender in CF still, so he'd be a solid replacement out there which would allow Benintendi and Betts to stay on the corners, and offers 15ish home runs and steals.

He was about as good offensively in 2017 as we hope Bradley will be in 2018 and Abreu+Gomez should be cheap enough to give them room to add a bullpen arm and maybe re-sign Nunez without going over that $237M. I think I'd like it better than Abreu+Bruce at least.
 

Max Power

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http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5434/giancarlo-stanton
"According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton."

This is the same offer from upthread - but details that 45 million would also be absorbed by the Marlins. If the Red Sox took on the whole contract, they could easily beat that offer. I'm guessing the Marlins haven't found teams willing to eat the whole thing so far.
If I were running the Marlins, I'd be trying to do the opposite. I'd pay as much of Stanton's contract as the other team wanted to get the best prospect haul possible. Stanton is the chip they have to basically buy another team's best young talent to be the base of their rebuild.
 

sean1562

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Meh, if they are really going to throw themselves into the rebuild, they need to trade way more than just Stanton. I am not sure this Stanton trade is entirely about "positioning the team for a better future".
 

SoxinSeattle

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Espn ticker has Miami and the Giants meeting with Stanton's people to see if he would accept a trade to San Fran. Could be close.
 
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BaseballJones

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Did JBJ kick someone’s dog?



So how does the plethora of unsigned 1B options factor into this evaluation?

Look, I do get that most people who are posting to trade JBJ want to do so primarily to free up that 3rd outfield spot for JD Martinez. Offensively, that should provide a huge upgrade.

But with Boras representing like every single long-term FA contract that’s likely to be signed this offseason, trading JBJ for Abreu first, before signing JDM, would undoubtedly put DDski in a crippled negotiating position. $200MM would be back on the table, just like that.

Poor Trader Dave...this offseason’s pace of action has to be killing him!
I'm not down on JBJ or desperate to move him or anything like that. I'm just making the point that "value" can be seen both objectively and also subjectively.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Out of curiosity, I checked Abreu's 2017 HR production with a Fenway overlay.



When he pulls the ball, the monster shouldn't be an issue for him.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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2014


2015


2016


2017



So as many as 11 that could have gone out at Fenway? Might have gained 5 or 6 last year if he was in a Red Sox uni since you can't count on all of these fly balls happening at home.

Edit: chawson replied to my question in a PM. He appears to be correct that some 2016 data was getting mixed in with that chart. I re-saved it with one that doesn't appear to have that issue. Though this one does have a triple that apparently went 450 feet, so...

Edit 2: Might as well add 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Edit 3: Something still isn't right. 2017 is only showing 15 home runs. It still shows his tendencies pretty well, and that he should gain a number of home runs swinging toward the Monster, though.
 
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chawson

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View attachment 18736

So as many as 11 that could have gone out at Fendway? Might have gained 5 or 6 last year if he was in a Red Sox uni since you can't count on all of these fly balls happening at home.
I think there's something wonky with that Statcast data. I'm seeing the same graphic but a lot of those batted balls appear to be from 2016.
 

PapaSox

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Espn ticker has Miami and the Giants meeting with Stanton's people to see if he would accept a trade to San Fran. Could be close.
I think Stanton will not go to SF. He wants LA. Preferably the Dodgers. It would be fun to see him with the Angels - Upton, Trout & Stanton
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think Stanton will not go to SF. He wants LA. Preferably the Dodgers. It would be fun to see him with the Angels - Upton, Trout & Stanton
If neither the Dodgers or Angels are interested in making an offer at all, let alone a competitive one with whatever the Giants have on the table, then what? Does he pull a Joey Votto and simply say he doesn't want to go anywhere so don't bother trying?

Based on what has been reported so far, the Angels don't seem to be interested in being a player for Stanton at all. The Dodgers are reportedly seeking to get under the luxury tax threshold in the near future. Adding Stanton would make that extremely difficult.

Following the rumors, if the LA teams are out, Stanton's options may come down to San Francisco, St. Louis, Boston, or staying in Miami on a stripped down roster. Considering his supposed preference to go to the west coast, San Francisco seems like his best and perhaps only choice. And if talks have progressed to the point where the Giants are talking to Stanton's people, they must have an offer on the table that is satisfactory for the Marlins. He may not be in a position to say no to the Giants unless he's prepared for a worse alternative.
 

sean1562

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If he likes warm weather, making 25 mil for three years in Miami isn’t the end of the world
 

MikeM

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Followup thought to the JBJ for Abreu discussion. If they did make that move, what about Carlos Gomez on a short contract? He's probably about a league average bat who had an up year in 2017, but he's still about an average defender in CF still, so he'd be a solid replacement out there which would allow Benintendi and Betts to stay on the corners, and offers 15ish home runs and steals.

He was about as good offensively in 2017 as we hope Bradley will be in 2018 and Abreu+Gomez should be cheap enough to give them room to add a bullpen arm and maybe re-sign Nunez without going over that $237M. I think I'd like it better than Abreu+Bruce at least.
Gomez is potentially interesting, but that would also leave us fairly RHH heavy and you still have the Boras factor to add in (who also claimed Gomez turned down multi year offers last winter to re-sign with Texas fwtw). Although keeping in mind we are starting with a division winning team I honestly feel the real the sell in Abreu is that he's a safer enough upgrade bet over the 1B FA alternatives that you then don't necessarily have to swing at the home run'ish off-season if Gomez ended up being too expensive. Which is something getting lost (imo) in the process of people getting too caught up in a better case scenario theory that is leaning way too heavily on absolute WAR values.

Trading Bradley for Abreu wouldn't have to be about winning some isolated min/max paper value battle, or even trying to have the "perfect" off season for that matter. It's making the adequate level tweak DD regrettably failed make to an already playoff caliber team last year, and doing so while drawing the conclusion that a .300/.350/.550 bat in the middle of our lineup (which we might not realistically be able to add any other way) simply offers better overall roster construction balance towards the ultimate goal of winning a WS title then keeping Bradley around would. The absolute WAR value POV keeps pounding away on the concept drum that we can get those "wins" elsewhere on a guy like Santana, and that's fine. Personally though, I don't want to give up draft picks or commit to some 4 year premium contract on a mid tier 1B. I also don't want spend another season doing more second guessing then I have to on whether that actually upgrades our offense enough for a potential playoff run, or on a chance that we are essentially left doubling down with slightly better odds on the same bet we already just lost. Abreu also may not be Stanton or the 2017 version of JD Martinez, but he doesn't come with a contract we are probably going to seriously regret latter either. As a whole that all offers it's own additional "value" consideration to our current situation atm/imo.

In Abreu DD gets his reliable hitter who is/was clearly better then anybody else in this lineup, which in turn hopefully has the positive overall impact on our kids around him who arguably did a little too much pressing at times last year. Throw in (at worst) a cheaper/low commitment LF platoon that offers both solid D and a reasonable chance to out hit the fairly low bar Bradley set in 2017, a LH reliever, and enough financial flexibility left over to help dig ourselves out of any holes injuries or busts might throw at us...and that's enough in my book. It's not throw DD a big winner of the off-season parade enough, but it would work as a conservative approach plan that trades in a massive migraine for a more mild headache, and which isn't paralyzed over the prospect of cashing out on asset value (in less then clearly visible epic win trade) before it's given a full chance to completely bottom out.
 
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Sampo Gida

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2014


2015


2016


2017



So as many as 11 that could have gone out at Fenway? Might have gained 5 or 6 last year if he was in a Red Sox uni since you can't count on all of these fly balls happening at home.

Edit: chawson replied to my question in a PM. He appears to be correct that some 2016 data was getting mixed in with that chart. I re-saved it with one that doesn't appear to have that issue. Though this one does have a triple that apparently went 450 feet, so...

Edit 2: Might as well add 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Edit 3: Something still isn't right. 2017 is only showing 15 home runs. It still shows his tendencies pretty well, and that he should gain a number of home runs swinging toward the Monster, though.
Some of those balls hit the wall and go for singles or doubles.
 

PapaSox

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If neither the Dodgers or Angels are interested in making an offer at all, let alone a competitive one with whatever the Giants have on the table, then what? Does he pull a Joey Votto and simply say he doesn't want to go anywhere so don't bother trying?

Based on what has been reported so far, the Angels don't seem to be interested in being a player for Stanton at all. The Dodgers are reportedly seeking to get under the luxury tax threshold in the near future. Adding Stanton would make that extremely difficult.

Following the rumors, if the LA teams are out, Stanton's options may come down to San Francisco, St. Louis, Boston, or staying in Miami on a stripped down roster. Considering his supposed preference to go to the west coast, San Francisco seems like his best and perhaps only choice. And if talks have progressed to the point where the Giants are talking to Stanton's people, they must have an offer on the table that is satisfactory for the Marlins. He may not be in a position to say no to the Giants unless he's prepared for a worse alternative.
I'm not sure if the assessment of a striped down club is all that would be left. I know Jeter has spoken to Stanton/representative about the fact that he'd have to strip the team to the bone if Stanton stays. However, that may not be true. Jeter has indicated they need to strip about $30 million from payroll to accomplish his goal of having a payroll that fits the current capabilities of the team. This can be achieve w/o stripping the team to its bear bones.

Presently, Jeter has cut $2 million by not taking Ichiro's option - that's 2 of 30. Now where to get the other $28 million w/o gutting the team?

How about:
· Trading Prado: Eat $5.5 million from this year’s contract and $7.5 million from 2019 - a team gets Prado for $8 million/year - he was injured last season but his 2016 numbers were solid - savings in 2018 - $8 million - 10 of 30
· Trade Dee Gordon: Eat $2.8 Million from this year’s contract and $5.3 million from 2019 with $5.8 for 2020 - a team gets Gordon for about $8 million a year - savings in 2018 - $8 million - 18 of 30
· Trade Ziegler: Eat $3 million from this year’s contract - a team gets Ziegler for about $6 million a year - savings in 2018 - $6 million - 24 of 30
· Trade Tazawa: Eat $3 million from this year’s contract - a team gets Tazawa for about $4 million a year - savings in 2018 - $4 million - 28 of 30 close enough

Some variation of the above is achievable.

That leaves Realmuto, Bour, Yelich, Ozuna & Stanton for the offense. Now, there is little the Marlins can do about the rotation and pen but these were issue they had last season. So, the Marlin's put on the field a team that may be a little worse than last year but still keeps their offense intact and their number one draw to keep the fan base interested.
 

jon abbey

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Jeter has indicated they need to strip about $30 million from payroll to accomplish his goal of having a payroll that fits the current capabilities of the team.
This is a little misleading, Jeter said he needs to cut the payroll to around $90M, which would be around a $30M drop from last year as you say, but with arb increased, Cot's has MIA around $132M for next year already.

 

PapaSox

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This is a little misleading, Jeter said he needs to cut the payroll to around $90M, which would be around a $30M drop from last year as you say, but with arb increased, Cot's has MIA around $132M for next year already.

There's not much more to work with. Chen is dead money and Volquez will not be back until after AS break. If you start spinning off lessor players to hang on to the offense then you just get into a need to sign players. He will likely have to settle on selling the stadium naming rights to pick up $5 - 10 million more and go with what he's got.
 

sean1562

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I feel like this is one of the reasons Stanton knows he has so much leverage. In the end, the Marlins reallllyyy want to trade him, and he knows wherever he goes is probably where he will be for the remainder of his career(i don't see him opting out). why go to St Louis, Boston, etc if what he really wants to do is live and play in California? That is why he got the NTC in the first place. More power to him
 

Harry Hooper

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Given yesterday's meeting with the Cardinals, Camp Stanton seems to be at least considering his not playing on the West Coast.

Link
 

tonyarmasjr

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People keep saying this but I'm not sure it's true. Even Cameron described it as closer to a lateral move (if they made the swap). Seeing them as equal value is more of a reasonable position, but even that ignores the possibility that 2016 was an outlier and that Bradley is closer to a league average player going forward while Abreu is probably a 3 win player or better. For a quick glance, Abreu has fWARs of 5.3, 3.2, 1.8 and 4.1. Bradley is at 0.5, 2.5, 5.0 and 2.3 in the same span. If we go with rWAR it's 5.5, 3.8, 2.8 and 4.7 vs 0.7, 2.2, 5.3, 2.8.

I don't think there's any reason to assume either is their best year, but it seems a whole lot safer to bet on 3+ wins from Abreu than from JBJ next year.
WAR is a terrible way to compare these two. And JBJ with anyone. He's really hard to evaluate, since he's had such wildly fluctuating, limited performance. It also makes all the roster discussions this offseason (since they all seem to include trading JBJ) both interesting and maddening. You're using 4 years of WAR for JBJ:
2014 - 0.5 - If he is anything remotely close to the hitter he was in 2014, he has no spot on a ML roster; and this discussion doesn't exist.
2015 - 2.5 - 74 games; WAR is a counting stat
2016 - 5.0 - All-Star caliber player
2017 - 2.3 - A "bad" year in which he was the 12th best CFer in baseball

I think he's probably somewhere between 2015-2016 and 2017. So, a 3-4 WAR player. How confident am I? Some...

While I have similar questions myself on how much trade value Abreu should have on top of his contract, that also comes off to me as Cameron being way too bullish of Jackie Bradley. Who isn't some young hot chicken prospect anymore. He's a 28yo who you can argue has yet to even firmly established himself at the MLB level as a reliable starter type on a playoff caliber team.

The potential fall from viewing him as "a possible 5 win player" to "a guy who could never put it all together" can be short one there, and which has to be considered into any accessed value that is almost entirely revolving around hopeful upside atm. That includes a reality where Bradley might generate an Aberu in a trade a today, but 2 months into 2018 and seeing him pick up from where he left off after last year's second half then leaves it somewhat of a chore to even find a team willing to take his contract in full mid season.
Are you suggesting he's reverting to the player he was in 2014? That's the only way this makes sense. I also don't see evidence for it. His second half was bad, but we know he's streaky. And his August 111 wRC+ was significantly better than any single month in 2014. It's not like he completely fell off a cliff after June that could lead you to that conclusion. 2017 saw him as a reliable starter type on a playoff caliber team, and that was a "bad" year. It's not hopeful upside.
 

chawson

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Here’s another lens to view our first base candidates. (Dopes, please move if more appropriate elsewhere.)

MLB pitchers are throwing a ton of sliders. It’s kind of wild. 16.3% of pitches last year were sliders — higher than any time since pitch data was publicly available (2002).

Here’s each AL East team’s slider usage for the last five years.

Yankees
2013 - 16.6%
2014 - 20.8%
2015 - 24.6%
2016 - 28.3%
2017 - 25.0%

Rays
2013 - 7.2%
2014 - 10.6%
2015 - 14.5%
2016 - 13.1%
2017 - 17.0%

Blue Jays
2013 - 12.2%
2014 - 10.0%
2015 - 8.8%
2016 - 10.3%
2017 - 14.9%

Orioles
2013 - 12.1%
2014 - 15.9%
2015 - 16.1%
2016 - 14.5%
2017 - 17.1%

Many of the AL’s best sliders belong to pitchers in the East. It’s the best pitch of Severino, Gray, Tanaka, Bundy, Archer, Odorizzi, Stroman, Sabathia, Faria, and Montgomery, who all have above average sliders (per Fangraphs pitch values). Key relievers like Betances, Osuna, O’Day, Castro and Green do too.

For whatever reason, slider usage is up. With the Yankees, it’s way up. They’ve thrown more sliders than anyone in baseball the last three years, and were second in baseball the year before that.

Here are the first base options vs. sliders last year.

Abreu - .319 avg, .548 slg (468 pitches, 70 whiffs)
Adams - .180 avg, .400 slg (216 pitches, 44 whiffs)
Alonso - .123 avg, .169 slg (301 pitches, 56 whiffs)
Belt - .182 avg, .418 slg (268 pitches, 37 whiffs)
Duda - .167 avg, .400 slg (303 pitches, 57 whiffs)
Frazier - .194 avg; .411 slg (585 pitches, 78 whiffs)
Holliday - .203 avg; .377 slg (338 pitches, 62 whiffs)
Hosmer - .186 avg; .289 slg (426 pitches, 57 whiffs)
J.D. Martinez - .239 avg; .566 slg (429 pitches, 95 whiffs)
Miller - .172 avg, .344 slg (219 pitches, 42 whiffs)
Moreland - .267 avg, .493 slg (276 pitches, 59 whiffs)
Morrison - .256 avg, .467 slg (362 pitches, 61 whiffs)
Napoli - .163 avg; .477 slg (404 pitches, 84 whiffs)
Ramirez - .246 avg; .410 slg (439 pitches, 82 whiffs)
Reynolds - .121 avg; .242 slg (569 pitches, 122 whiffs)
Santana - .313 avg, .516 slg (349 pitches, 31 whiffs)

Nobody’s great at hitting sliders. That’s why pitchers throw them. But a couple of those guys — coincidentally or not, guys we’ve been linked to — hit them well last year. This doesn’t account for handedness, but it still seems significant. Despite his otherwise good year, Hosmer hit them particularly badly.

*For those checking Statcast, the default numbers seem to be 2016 – even though it reads 2017. You have to manually select 2017.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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WAR is a terrible way to compare these two. And JBJ with anyone. He's really hard to evaluate, since he's had such wildly fluctuating, limited performance. It also makes all the roster discussions this offseason (since they all seem to include trading JBJ) both interesting and maddening. You're using 4 years of WAR for JBJ:
2014 - 0.5 - If he is anything remotely close to the hitter he was in 2014, he has no spot on a ML roster; and this discussion doesn't exist.
2015 - 2.5 - 74 games; WAR is a counting stat
2016 - 5.0 - All-Star caliber player
2017 - 2.3 - A "bad" year in which he was the 12th best CFer in baseball

I think he's probably somewhere between 2015-2016 and 2017. So, a 3-4 WAR player. How confident am I? Some...
And I wouldn't bet on him being more than a 2-3 win player. I don't see how anyone could be confident he's more than that. He's just so incredibly volatile at the plate.

And at this stage of their competitive window, I think the Red Sox should be highly risk adverse. Jose Abreu is far more bankable production and presents his value in a way that the Red Sox are sorely needing right now. Taking a chance on JBJ being his 2016 self with such a distinct and short window in front of them, if they have the option to turn him into something far less risky would probably be a bad idea.
 

chawson

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Latest report says 3B prospect Christian Arroyo’s in the Giants’ package for Stanton, not Chris Shaw. SF hanging onto Shaw could mean that Belt’s expendable/necessary to move, which is good news for us because he’s better, younger, and should be cheaper in acquisition cost than Jose Abreu.
 

Max Power

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Latest report says 3B prospect Christian Arroyo’s in the Giants’ package for Stanton, not Chris Shaw. SF hanging onto Shaw could mean that Belt’s expendable/necessary to move, which is good news for us because he’s better, younger, and should be cheaper in acquisition cost than Jose Abreu.
Belt is one year younger and isn't nearly as good a hitter. Even if you value plate discipline above everything else, the Red Sox already have a bunch of guys with that exact same profile. They need a guy who can hit the ball over the wall and drive those baserunners in. Abreu might be the best fit of what's available.
 

grimshaw

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Latest report says 3B prospect Christian Arroyo’s in the Giants’ package for Stanton, not Chris Shaw. SF hanging onto Shaw could mean that Belt’s expendable/necessary to move, which is good news for us because he’s better, younger, and should be cheaper in acquisition cost than Jose Abreu.
I don't think that's necessarily true regarding trade value. Over the next two seasons Belt and Abreu will cost about the same amount of money (2/32 for Belt and maybe a bit more for Abreu in arbitration). Belt has a much better contract with more surplus value.

Though the equalizer could be if Abreu is worth a QO or not.
 

chawson

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You may be right. Though reports that Hahn wants “an arm and two legs” for Abreu, plus Belt being owed $30M+/- more in guaranteed money, plus the Giants being motivated to move him for payroll considerations in an otherwise first base-flush market, made me think it’d take less to acquire him.
 

MikeM

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Belt is one year younger and isn't nearly as good a hitter. Even if you value plate discipline above everything else, the Red Sox already have a bunch of guys with that exact same profile. They need a guy who can hit the ball over the wall and drive those baserunners in. Abreu might be the best fit of what's available.
I wouldn't go as far as to say he isn't nearly as good. But you are right in Abreu being the better hitter, and that profile type is going to matter (especially here and especially now).

For all the speculation on this board about Belt this winter, I'll honestly be fairly surprised if we even see a single rumor this winter that DD bothered to make an inquiry call there. Outside the hypothetically theory insisting that the lack of homeruns out of Belt shouldn't matter....it's going to matter whether you support that or not.
 

MikeM

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You may be right. Though reports that Hahn wants “an arm and two legs” for Abreu, plus Belt being owed $30M+/- more in guaranteed money, plus the Giants being motivated to move him for payroll considerations in an otherwise first base-flush market, made me think it’d take less to acquire him.
The above said you are also probably right there in that assuming that an "arm and a leg" essentially translates into Abreu not being available to us. Which sucks for me as much as my projected lack of DD interest in Belt does for you, since out of every option I've seen reasonably discussed Abreu would be my guy/pick.

At this point I'm really just rooting for a Stanton-to-SF trade to go through already so we can at least better gauge our chances on JD. Then maybe start speculating more on whether a potential four guaranteed years on Santana (plus picks) is really worth it if a Morrison flyer could be had while only committing for two at less per/year money.
 

nvalvo

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Belt is one year younger and isn't nearly as good a hitter. Even if you value plate discipline above everything else, the Red Sox already have a bunch of guys with that exact same profile. They need a guy who can hit the ball over the wall and drive those baserunners in. Abreu might be the best fit of what's available.
I wouldn't go as far as to say he isn't nearly as good. But you are right in Abreu being the better hitter, and that profile type is going to matter (especially here and especially now).

For all the speculation on this board about Belt this winter, I'll honestly be fairly surprised if we even see a single rumor this winter that DD bothered to make an inquiry call there. Outside the hypothetically theory insisting that the lack of homeruns out of Belt shouldn't matter....it's going to matter whether you support that or not.
My bet would be that if you put both guys on the Red Sox, in the AL East, for 700 PA, the difference in HR would be nil.

For HR by LHH, Guaranteed Rate Park is 1.19, Fenway is 0.79, and AT&T is 0.55. Think about that last number, and think about the fact that Belt, one of the slower players in baseball, has 27 career triples, 20 of them at AT&T.

Per statcast, in his concussion-shortened 2017, Belt hit 16/279 of his batted balls 400+ feet, or 5.7%. Abreu in 2017 hit 29/506, or... 5.7%.

Abreu hits a few more balls hard, but also a few more softly. Abreu hits way more groundballs, 45.9 to 33.3 (and Belt has been under 30% the last two seasons...); GB/FB has Abreu at 1.2ish the last few years and Belt around 0.6. Belt walks close to three times as much on a rate basis, and strikes out only slightly more.

If Belt can be had cheap, we want him.* He's just hit 18 HR in 475 PA playing for SF. If he gets to play 81 in Fenway (0.79 for LHH HR), 9 in NYS (1.38), 9 in Camden (1.12), 9 in Rogers Centre (1.09), and 9 in Tropicana (1.16), he could hit 28 or 30. How many would we expect from Abreu?

* And in this market, he shouldn't have a ton of trade value as his contract is fair for his production. I'm assuming that if SF is moving him, it's to free up payroll post-Stanton trade
 

sean1562

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Has there been a single “giants are looking to move belt” article this offseason? Also, which team is really going to give Eric Hosmer anything resembling even a $120 million contract? When does Hosmer become a palatable option? Why is Moustakas being quoted at something like 5/90 and Hosmer way higher than that?

Literally every article bout Eric Hosmer is "Holy shit anybody who pays him $100 million will regret it." Why would anyone do that? Which teams are going to be signing all of these random 1b?

edit: I would agree with this article regarding teams potentially in the market for a 1B.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21474564/does-mlb-team-want-give-eric-hosmer-100-million

Royals, Red Sox, Angels, Rockies, Rangers. the Rockies need to play Ian Desmond somewhere, so prob arent gonna drop tons of money on Eric Hosmer. The Angels already have Cron and Pujols. Of those 5 teams, all of them seem to be players in the tier "below" Hosmer, and none seem interested in paying him anything resembling $20 mil a year. At the end of the day, he is not an amazing player and I don't think anybody is falling for the crazy Boras sales pitch. What is a reasonable deal for him? 5/90? 6/110?
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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My expectation is that if Hosmer's price drops to a "reasonable" rate, he goes back to Kansas City.

He got a qualifying offer so that's an added cost for any team other than the Royals. For the Red Sox, that means giving up two draft picks (2nd and 5th highest) and a million dollars in international signing bonus money. Considering the state of the Sox farm system, they're not really in a position to be giving away high draft picks. Frankly, I think the QO disqualifies Hosmer and Santana as options for the Red Sox, even if those players are otherwise affordable.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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My expectation is that if Hosmer's price drops to a "reasonable" rate, he goes back to Kansas City.

He got a qualifying offer so that's an added cost for any team other than the Royals. For the Red Sox, that means giving up two draft picks (2nd and 5th highest) and a million dollars in international signing bonus money. Considering the state of the Sox farm system, they're not really in a position to be giving away high draft picks. Frankly, I think the QO disqualifies Hosmer and Santana as options for the Red Sox, even if those players are otherwise affordable.
I thought this was true as well, but if they were under the CBT threshold in 2017 (there are conflicting reports on that, but most reports are that they finished the year under... USA Today has them over) then it's only a 2nd and 500K in IFA cap money. Still a hefty price, and I'd still come down on it not being worth it for Hosmer, and it being enough to make Santana a fallback option instead of plan A. But it's a slightly less bitter pill to swallow.
 

mfried

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You may be right. Though reports that Hahn wants “an arm and two legs” for Abreu, plus Belt being owed $30M+/- more in guaranteed money, plus the Giants being motivated to move him for payroll considerations in an otherwise first base-flush market, made me think it’d take less to acquire him.
In the big picture, Martinez batting behind Belt would make good sense. If we don’t have Martinez, Abreu would be the better choice.