How long will Chaim last?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Here's what I don't think you or any of the pro-Bloom contingent understand; none of us want the Red Sox to lose. None of us want the Red Sox to be boring. When we (the royal we here, I'm speaking for myself) take to a message board to voice our displeasure about the Red Sox, it's for that particular game and/or time. It's not us saying that we're never going to root for the Sox again or want to burn Fenway to the ground with everyone in it. Prior to this six-game win streak, the Sox played like uninspired dog shit for a month, losing games in the dumbest way possible.

You (and others like you) twisted yourself into pretzel logic saying, "No, actually the Sox are playing well it's that (injuries or the weather or whatever was the excuse du jour) is the reason and the Chaim Bloom is playing 6D chess that only I can see." while denying that the team wasn't playing well. The Sox have played great this last week, which is awesome and I hope they continue. WTF else do you want?

I know this is hyperbolic to prove a point... but I don't think that's what the "Pro-Bloom Contingent" thinks the "Anti-Bloom Contingent thinks at all. I don't think of myself as "Pro-Bloom" but I'm sure others would disagree.

The "excuses" those of us that have been lumped into that camp are more along the lines of (good lord, how many times do we have to say this???):
---The team as constructed after DD left looked like it had maybe one good year left (this was 2020.... Pandemic, shortened season, Mookie trade imminent) but there were already lots of injuries and expensive contracts and contracts that were looking to be very expensive. Bloom was brought in to course correct which was likely going to cause some short term pain but hopefully with some good drafting, sifting through prior drafts and some careful trades and short term contracts, the team could compete during the "rebuilding years", which I think of as 2020, 2021, 2022 with results starting to show in '23 (possibly 85 wins, last WC), better results in '24 (possibly 90 wins, 1st WC) and then in '25 looking at a rebuilt juggernaut capable of chasing 100 wins and ALE 1st place for the following 4 years.
-2020 was a shit show, but Bloom tanked that team and got Mayer
-2021 all the short term fixes worked unbelievably well.
-2022 all the short term fixes went to shit
-2023 things are starting to look good
-2024 things are looking better (possibly getting Mayer in... hopeful health from Sale, Story... younger players getting better)
To me the burden of proof on the "Anti-Bloom Contingent" is to provide some sort of evidence that Bloom's plan is crap and/or that THIS year's team could have been better without sacrificing long term plan. I haven't been convinced yet by any poster.
-The "twisted logic" isn't twisted. There's been lots of injuries. Look at the first page on the "starting rotation thread". Crawford was no. 8 on the depth chart and is now the no. 4 pitcher in the rotation. Despite that... the team is still doing well. The middle infield situation is also at what... Plan H now? And despite that... the team is STILL doing well. Not doing great? Sure. There's been absolutely insane frustrating play but considering the situation, I'm impressed with how a Short Term Plan to Compete is doing while not sacrificing or hamstringing the Long Term Plan. I don't believe it was possible for Bloom to put together a 100 win team with the situation he came into between 2020 and 2024. From my perspective the "Antis" disagree, but have yet to provide (for me) convincing evidence.

It'd be nice to make an argument without using extremist reduction fallacies on "both sides" here... but I get it.

 

[cantor44]

I know this is hyperbolic to prove a point... but I don't think that's what the "Pro-Bloom Contingent" thinks the "Anti-Bloom Contingent thinks at all. I don't think of myself as "Pro-Bloom" but I'm sure others would disagree.

The "excuses" those of us that have been lumped into that camp are more along the lines of (good lord, how many times do we have to say this???):
---The team as constructed after DD left looked like it had maybe one good year left (this was 2020.... Pandemic, shortened season, Mookie trade imminent) but there were already lots of injuries and expensive contracts and contracts that were looking to be very expensive. Bloom was brought in to course correct which was likely going to cause some short term pain but hopefully with some good drafting, sifting through prior drafts and some careful trades and short term contracts, the team could compete during the "rebuilding years", which I think of as 2020, 2021, 2022 with results starting to show in '23 (possibly 85 wins, last WC), better results in '24 (possibly 90 wins, 1st WC) and then in '25 looking at a rebuilt juggernaut capable of chasing 100 wins and ALE 1st place for the following 4 years.
-2020 was a shit show, but Bloom tanked that team and got Mayer
-2021 all the short term fixes worked unbelievably well.
-2022 all the short term fixes went to shit
-2023 things are starting to look good
-2024 things are looking better (possibly getting Mayer in... hopeful health from Sale, Story... younger players getting better)
To me the burden of proof on the "Anti-Bloom Contingent" is to provide some sort of evidence that Bloom's plan is crap and/or that THIS year's team could have been better without sacrificing long term plan. I haven't been convinced yet by any poster.
-The "twisted logic" isn't twisted. There's been lots of injuries. Look at the first page on the "starting rotation thread". Crawford was no. 8 on the depth chart and is now the no. 4 pitcher in the rotation. Despite that... the team is still doing well. The middle infield situation is also at what... Plan H now? And despite that... the team is STILL doing well. Not doing great? Sure. There's been absolutely insane frustrating play but considering the situation, I'm impressed with how a Short Term Plan to Compete is doing while not sacrificing or hamstringing the Long Term Plan. I don't believe it was possible for Bloom to put together a 100 win team with the situation he came into between 2020 and 2024. From my perspective the "Antis" disagree, but have yet to provide (for me) convincing evidence.

It'd be nice to make an argument without using extremist reduction fallacies on "both sides" here... but I get it.

I think Bloom's deadline decisions last year had folks scratching their heads. If the plan is about the long term, why not sell more aggressively and get under the cap? Just odd, and perhaps an indication that he characterlogically hedges. Having a long term plan is just fine, it's that his execution is funky.

I think resigning Wacha and Eovaldi, would have served the team better than Kluber and relying too much on aging injury prone dudes (mind you, I'm loving Paxton, but I think he'll eventually go the way Sale did and find himself back on the shelf). Finding a viable shortstop once X gone, too. Just to give a couple examples of what might have been different.

But I do agree, at this point, the proof will be in the pudding in 2024. Given that he has assembled (or kept) some interesting pieces - Wong, Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers, Yoshida, Verdugo, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Winckowski, who all seems to be legit building blocks to a contender - it makes sense to give Bloom another year to see how he completes his work. The team needs some bonafide blue chip players to add to this pool - let's see if he can go get them.

 

[Max Power]

I think Bloom's deadline decisions last year had folks scratching their heads. If the plan is about the long term, why not sell more aggressively and get under the cap? Just odd, and perhaps an indication that he characterlogically hedges. Having a long term plan is just fine, it's that his execution is funky.

The plan is not to trade away long term assets for short term help. It's not to tank the current season no matter what.

 

[YTF]

IIRC, Wacha was initially asking for 13-14M per for 3-4 years. From a financial standpoint as well as a commitment standpoint, Kluber at 10M for one season with a team option for '24 made much more sense. Wacha sign his deal late when he realized that his market wasn't what he hoped it would be.

Can you do me a favor and just save this to your clipboard for tomorrow? And the next day... and the next day?

Do you actually think that it's going to come up again?

I think Bloom's deadline decisions last year had folks scratching their heads. If the plan is about the long term, why not sell more aggressively and get under the cap? Just odd, and perhaps an indication that he characterlogically hedges. Having a long term plan is just fine, it's that his execution is funky.

I think resigning Wacha and Eovaldi, would have served the team better than Kluber and relying too much on aging injury prone dudes (mind you, I'm loving Paxton, but I think he'll eventually go the way Sale did and find himself back on the shelf). Finding a viable shortstop once X gone, too. Just to give a couple examples of what might have been different.

But I do agree, at this point, the proof will be in the pudding in 2024. Given that he has assembled (or kept) some interesting pieces - Wong, Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers, Yoshida, Verdugo, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Winckowski, who all seems to be legit building blocks to a contender - it makes sense to give Bloom another year to see how he completes his work. The team needs some bonafide blue chip players to add to this pool - let's see if he can go get them.

 

[joe dokes]

I think Bloom's deadline decisions last year had folks scratching their heads. If the plan is about the long term, why not sell more aggressively and get under the cap? Just odd, and perhaps an indication that he characterlogically hedges. Having a long term plan is just fine, it's that his execution is funky.

I think resigning Wacha and Eovaldi, would have served the team better than Kluber and relying too much on aging injury prone dudes (mind you, I'm loving Paxton, but I think he'll eventually go the way Sale did and find himself back on the shelf). Finding a viable shortstop once X gone, too. Just to give a couple examples of what might have been different.

But I do agree, at this point, the proof will be in the pudding in 2024. Given that he has assembled (or kept) some interesting pieces - Wong, Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers, Yoshida, Verdugo, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Winckowski, who all seems to be legit building blocks to a contender - it makes sense to give Bloom another year to see how he completes his work. The team needs some bonafide blue chip players to add to this pool - let's see if he can go get them.

They were 4 games out of a WC spot last July 31. Selling more aggressively -- waving a white flag -- would have been the head-scratcher.
The context-free references to "keeping Eovaldi and Wacha" and the "no viable shortstop" arguments are close to meaningless, when compared to their respective realities.
(EDIT: Those "realities" being explained in the post above this one).

 

[BringBackMo]

Just odd, and perhaps an indication that he characterlogically hedges.

Except for when he acts way too quickly and does something like sign Yoshida, correct?

If the plan is about the long term, why not sell more aggressively and get under the cap?

The plan is a balance of long term and immediate term interests.

I think resigning Wacha and Eovaldi, would have served the team better than Kluber and relying too much on aging injury prone dudes

Can you please read through this or any number of other threads on the board for an explanation of how this is a complete mischaracterization of how Wacha and Eovaldi wound up on other teams and Kluber wound up on this team?

 

[tims4wins]

They were 4 games out of a WC spot last July 31. Selling more aggressively -- waving a white flag -- would have been the head-scratcher.
The context-free references to "keeping Eovaldi and Wacha" and the "no viable shortstop" arguments are close to meaningless, when compared to their respective realities.
(EDIT: Those "realities" being explained in the post above this one).

Would it have been? They went 7-19 in July.

 

[joe dokes]

Since I bumped the thread on June 9:
Turner: .425 / .489 / .750 / 1.239

Would it have been? They went 7-19 in July.

You're right. It would not have been unreasonable for them to think that they were closer to the 7-19 than they were to what came before. But that doesn't make the 4-games-out hedge a head-scratcher either. I'm just not big on waving the white flag unless its obvious. MMV.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

You're right. It would not have been unreasonable for them to think that they were closer to the 7-19 than they were to what came before. But that doesn't make the 4-games-out hedge a head-scratcher either. I'm just not big on waving the white flag unless its obvious. MMV.

And through July, neither Wacha, nor Eovaldi were starting. Those two guys were expected back in early August.

 

[tims4wins]

For the record they were 4.5 games out heading into July 31 last year, and had gone 8-20 in their previous 28 games. They were 10th overall in the AL, and there were 4 teams between them and the last wild card

ALE - NYY
ALC - MIN
ALW - HOU
WC1 - TOR
WC2 - SEA
WC3 - TBR
------------------
WC4 - CLE
WC5 - BAL
WC6 - CHW
WC7 - BOS

Edit table fail

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

For the record they were 4.5 games out heading into July 31 last year, and had gone 8-20 in their previous 28 games. They were 10th overall in the AL, and there were 4 teams between them and the last wild card

ALE - NYY
ALC - MIN
ALW - HOU
WC1 - TOR
WC2 - SEA
WC3 - TBR
------------------
WC4 - CLE
WC5 - BAL
WC6 - CHW
WC7 - BOS

Edit table fail

Small nitpick, but the trade deadline last year was on August 2 because of the lockout induced late start to the season. The Sox were three games behind Tampa for WC3 when the deadline passed (and 2 games back by the end of that night).

 

[TFisNEXT]

Who are those teams with a "legit shot at winning it all?" Atlanta is clearly a great team. But I don't really believe in the Rangers' pitching or the Rays' ability to keep hitting homers. The Astros have struggled with injuries and a drop off in bullpen performance. The Yankees can't hit. There doesn't seem to be a huge gap between the Red Sox and the best non-Braves teams in baseball right now.

Anyone who actually gets into the playoffs can win it all. This isn't like the NBA where the lower seeds basically have no shot (this year's Heat run not withstanding). We're all mostly experienced enough as fans to understand that your most important player in any given game (the starting pitcher) can only play about 25% of the playoff games.

We've seen several teams in the past without a true "ace" win the World Series because someone stepped up in the playoffs. I do think this team could use another starter, but you can envision a scenario where guys like Paxton/Bello go on a run in the playoffs...maybe even Sale assuming he would be back by September. We know this team can hit already.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Anyone who actually gets into the playoffs can win it all. This isn't like the NBA where the lower seeds basically have no shot (this year's Heat run not withstanding). We're all mostly experienced enough as fans to understand that your most important player in any given game (the starting pitcher) can only play about 25% of the playoff games.

We've seen several teams in the past without a true "ace" win the World Series because someone stepped up in the playoffs. I do think this team could use another starter, but you can envision a scenario where guys like Paxton/Bello go on a run in the playoffs...maybe even Sale assuming he would be back by September. We know this team can hit already.

A list of the most recent Red Sox playoff and world series winners would reveal shocking results on who was the team's best performers. It's kinda the fun of the whole thing...

 

[Ale Xander]

Anyone who actually gets into the playoffs can win it all. This isn't like the NBA where the lower seeds basically have no shot (this year's Heat run not withstanding). We're all mostly experienced enough as fans to understand that your most important player in any given game (the starting pitcher) can only play about 25% of the playoff games.

We've seen several teams in the past without a true "ace" win the World Series because someone stepped up in the playoffs. I do think this team could use another starter, but you can envision a scenario where guys like Paxton/Bello go on a run in the playoffs...maybe even Sale assuming he would be back by September. We know this team can hit already.

Most years yes

no one is beating the Braves this year if they’re healthy (particularly RA and their starters)

 

[soxhop411]

Anyone who actually gets into the playoffs can win it all. This isn't like the NBA where the lower seeds basically have no shot (this year's Heat run not withstanding). We're all mostly experienced enough as fans to understand that your most important player in any given game (the starting pitcher) can only play about 25% of the playoff games.

We've seen several teams in the past without a true "ace" win the World Series because someone stepped up in the playoffs. I do think this team could use another starter, but you can envision a scenario where guys like Paxton/Bello go on a run in the playoffs...maybe even Sale assuming he would be back by September. We know this team can hit already.

Most years yes

no one is beating the Braves this year if they’re healthy (particularly RA and their starters)

We said the exact same thing about the Dodgers last year.....


They ended up getting bounced in the NLDS

 

[TFisNEXT]

A list of the most recent Red Sox playoff and world series winners would reveal shocking results on who was the team's best performers. It's kinda the fun of the whole thing...

I went back and looked at the 2013 team....Clay Buchholz was crazy good that year but he got injured and was not 100% in the playoffs. Lester and Lackey were solid in the regular season but not dominant. However, once the playoffs started, both turned in multiple dominant performances....the most crucial probably being Lackey defeating Verlander 1-0 in Detroit in game 3 of the ALCS. That Red Sox rotation without a healthy Buchholz was outmatched by Detroit, but guys like Lackey stepping up turned the tide (and Papi stealing game 2 helped).

That's what you hope for once you're in. You hope for one or more of your starters to shine beyond their baseline.

 

[DavidTai]

Steven Pearce, 2018 World Series MVP is still baffling after all that time.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I went back and looked at the 2013 team....Clay Buchholz was crazy good that year but he got injured and was not 100% in the playoffs. Lester and Lackey were solid in the regular season but not dominant. However, once the playoffs started, both turned in multiple dominant performances....the most crucial probably being Lackey defeating Verlander 1-0 in Detroit in game 3 of the ALCS. That Red Sox rotation without a healthy Buchholz was outmatched by Detroit, but guys like Lackey stepping up turned the tide (and Papi stealing game 2 helped).

That's what you hope for once you're in. You hope for one or more of your starters to shine beyond their baseline.

I'm still amazed by that victory. That Detroit team was STACKED..... Scherzer, Verlander, and their best pitcher that year may have actually been one Anibel Sanchez. Their lineup was killer.... the consensus around the league was that if you could get the starter out after 6 innings, the Tigers bullpen was pretty crappy. And the Sox had the greatest single season closer ever that year.

 

[Fishy1]

We said the exact same thing about the Dodgers last year.....


They ended up getting bounced in the NLDS

2021 WS was won by a team that only won 88 games. 2000 Yankees were 83-74. 2006 Cardinals won the WS despite going 83-78. The Giants won in 2014 despite going 88-74. Otherwise, in the last twenty years, everyone has won more than 90 games. But a lot of those teams were around 90-93 wins.

So, agreed... 100 wins is not a guarantee, and I'm not sure how much more likely it makes it

 

[joe dokes]

Small nitpick, but the trade deadline last year was on August 2 because of the lockout induced late start to the season. The Sox were three games behind Tampa for WC3 when the deadline passed (and 2 games back by the end of that night).

We dont have to debate 2022's deadline. My only point is that the approach of 2021, 2022 and this season are pretty consistent. Get a lot of short-term high-variance players without diminishing the minor league pool.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We dont have to debate 2022's deadline. My only point is that the approach of 2021, 2022 and this season are pretty consistent. Get a lot of short-term high-variance players without diminishing the minor league pool.

Agreed.

Posts made "for the record" ought to make sure the record is accurate. That was my only purpose in posting what I did.

 

[LogansDad]

Things YTF quoted

Sigh

 

[Bergs]

Sigh

View attachment 66278

Fantastic.

 

[jtn46]

I think Bloom's deadline decisions last year had folks scratching their heads. If the plan is about the long term, why not sell more aggressively and get under the cap? Just odd, and perhaps an indication that he characterlogically hedges. Having a long term plan is just fine, it's that his execution is funky.

I think resigning Wacha and Eovaldi, would have served the team better than Kluber and relying too much on aging injury prone dudes (mind you, I'm loving Paxton, but I think he'll eventually go the way Sale did and find himself back on the shelf). Finding a viable shortstop once X gone, too. Just to give a couple examples of what might have been different.

But I do agree, at this point, the proof will be in the pudding in 2024. Given that he has assembled (or kept) some interesting pieces - Wong, Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers, Yoshida, Verdugo, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Winckowski, who all seems to be legit building blocks to a contender - it makes sense to give Bloom another year to see how he completes his work. The team needs some bonafide blue chip players to add to this pool - let's see if he can go get them.

Why isn't Wacha in the aging injury prone bucket? Almost 32 and hasn't thrown more than 128 innings since 2017.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why isn't Wacha in the aging injury prone bucket? Almost 32 and hasn't thrown more than 128 innings since 2017.

Not to defend this... BUT... in a neutral environment, on a hypothetical one year deal, EVERYONE gives Eovaldi or Wacha a contract over Kluber, assuming the exact same cost, etc.. and it comes down to age. Better sign a 32 year old with lots of injuries throughout his career over a 38 year old with injuries throughout his whole career. That said... Kluber has been more healthy throughout his career than Eovaldi and Wacha so even that hypothetical all equal argument still has some holes in it

 

[BringBackMo]

Sigh

View attachment 66278

Gold.

 

[JM3]

2021 WS was won by a team that only won 88 games. 2000 Yankees were 83-74. 2006 Cardinals won the WS despite going 83-78. The Giants won in 2014 despite going 88-74. Otherwise, in the last twenty years, everyone has won more than 90 games. But a lot of those teams were around 90-93 wins.

So, agreed... 100 wins is not a guarantee, and I'm not sure how much more likely it makes it

So here's the last 20 years...

'22 - Astros, 2nd most wins (106 wins)
'21 - Braves, 12th (88)
'20 - Dodgers, 1st (43-17)
'19 - Nationals, T8th - 2-team tie (93)
'18 - Red Sox, 1st (108)
'17 - Astros, 3rd (101)
'16 - Cubs, 1st (103)
'15 - Royals, 3rd (95)
'14 - Giants, T8th - 3-team tie (88)
'13 - Red Sox, T1st - 2-team tie (97)
'12 - Giants, T4th - 3-team tie (94)
'11 - Cardinals, T8th - 2-team tie (90)
'10 - Giants, 5th (92)
'09 - Yankees, 1st (103)
'08 - Phillies, 5th (92)
'07 - Red Sox, T1st - 2-team tie (96)
'06 - Cardinals, 13th (83)
'05 - White Sox, 2nd (99)
'04 - Red Sox, 3rd (98)
'03 - Marlins, 7th (91)

So during that period, the average World Series winner has had the 5th best record in the league & won 59.7% of their games (97 wins).

The median World Series winner has had the 3rd best record & won 59% of their games (95.5 wins).

4 teams have won with the best record alone & 6 teams have won despite not having one of the 6 best records in baseball.

Winning percentages have ranged from the '20 Dodgers (0.717) to the '08 Cardinals (0.512), & wins have ranged from 108 ('18 Red Sox) to 83 ('08 Cardinals).

 

[trekfan55]

We dont have to debate 2022's deadline. My only point is that the approach of 2021, 2022 and this season are pretty consistent. Get a lot of short-term high-variance players without diminishing the minor league pool.

Yeah they were not ready to be full blown sellers.

Plus it's not like Bloom will pick up the phone a team will give us a blue chip prospect for our aging veteran.
This year, if they are going nowhere I'm pretty sure Bloom could get something for Jansen or Martin. Who else?

The last time the Sox really sold we got Eduardo Rodriguez, that was a good deal.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This year, if they are going nowhere I'm pretty sure Bloom could get something for Jansen or Martin. Who else?

Turner. Duvall.

 

[Archer1979]

They're also last place in their division, which means something. (I know that they'd be in first place in either of the Central divisions, but I don't think that the Sox are moving to Omaha any time soon so that argument is null.)

I almost led with that, but I've given up on anything better than third place in the AL East. That, and until the Yankees get Judge back, I can see the Sox and the Blue Jays passing them like they're standing still.

If I squint I can see how the Sox have a shot of winning it all. Once you’re in the playoffs anything can happen. And this team is proving that for stretches of time they can hit and pitch very well.

Now, the challenge with the expanded playoffs is that a team like the Sox has to play over their heads for longer to win it all. In the old days, a team like the mediocre ‘87 Twins only needed to win 8 games for a title. Now we’re talking about winning 14. It’s a taller order with much more time for a team to revert to their mean.

But like I said, I can squint and see it. I can also squint and see us losing 84 games again.

I'm coming from the same angle just not as optimistic. 2021 was an unreal experience and just under-scored how good you have to be with the play-in game era in order to get to the World Series, much less win it. You need to at least be a team that plays decent defense, decent pitching, and decent hitting. And... you have to get hot at the right time.

Who are those teams with a "legit shot at winning it all?" Atlanta is clearly a great team. But I don't really believe in the Rangers' pitching or the Rays' ability to keep hitting homers. The Astros have struggled with injuries and a drop off in bullpen performance. The Yankees can't hit. There doesn't seem to be a huge gap between the Red Sox and the best non-Braves teams in baseball right now.

Well... you kind of answered that with Atlanta, Texas, and Tampa Bay. With any season, you're going to have those that are really for real and others that are second tier. The trading deadline this year may be what makes the difference. Texas could get better. Atlanta could get better. If Tampa decides to really go for it, they could get better. The thing with Tampa is that they have never really decide to go all out. Their organizational philosophy somewhat forbids it as it's based on have a sustained influx of talent from their minor league teams. If they abandon that, they could easily win it all.

Second tier teams in the AL are Toronto (who were really my pick to win the AL East this year), LA, and maybe Houston. NL, Miami seems decent. SF leapfrogged over LA with their recent win streak, and I don't think you can ever discount the Dodgers.

All that said, at some point, the Sox would probably need to beat TB (currently 1 -7 head to head) which tells me that they don't match up well. Even if TB does nothing at the trading deadline, I don't think the Sox have players that are available to trade to bridge that gap. They might if they empty the farm system, but that's a big gamble and runs contrary to what Sox organizational philosophy appears to be.


I'm not really a Bloom hater or a Bloom lover. I'm somewhat ambivalent in that I really want him to succeed as that means the Sox are successful. There are two things that I look at with Bloom. He was obviously hired to tap into TB's approach augmented by the Sox cash to bring sustained success. I'm not sure how you can reconcile the two. It appears to be working, but very slow. That and the development machine seems to be lacking (scouting, coaching).

The second thing is that Bloom was hired to a level he hadn't held before. There's no doubt that he was a hot commodity when the Sox FO brought him onboard, but there was increased responsibility. If he was a 40 - 50 year old veteran GM-type, I'd be inclined to say that he's not a good fit for the Sox. Since he's young, he obviously has a growth curve. The trick is whether he's already maxxed out or still has some capacity to get better. It's just a matter of how much time do you give him.

 

[BringBackMo]

That and the development machine seems to be lacking (scouting, coaching).

Well, there are currently five rookies who received substantial development in the Red Sox minor league system and are right now making significant contributions to the big league roster. Beyond that, there are encouraging signs of development up and down the Sox minor league system. If that's lacking as a development machine, I have no idea what succeeding as a development machine would look like.

 

[trekfan55]

This is not on Bloom, but how would the Sox have fared if Trey Ball and Jasom Groome would not have such huge misses? Certainly affects where they are right now.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Well, there are currently five rookies who received substantial development in the Red Sox minor league system and are right now making significant contributions to the big league roster. Beyond that, there are encouraging signs of development up and down the Sox minor league system. If that's lacking as a development machine, I have no idea what succeeding as a development machine would look like.

Is there any other team playing 5 rookies right now making as significant contributions? Imagine if you could right now back those guys back up into the Sox mL system and then see how well the system is "ranked"....

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is there any other team playing 5 rookies right now making as significant contributions? Imagine if you could right now back those guys back up into the Sox mL system and then see how well the system is "ranked"....

The Reds?

 

[nvalvo]

Who are those teams with a "legit shot at winning it all?" Atlanta is clearly a great team. But I don't really believe in the Rangers' pitching or the Rays' ability to keep hitting homers. The Astros have struggled with injuries and a drop off in bullpen performance. The Yankees can't hit. There doesn't seem to be a huge gap between the Red Sox and the best non-Braves teams in baseball right now.

Why don't you believe in the Rays' ability to keep hitting homers? They have two players with wOBAs notably higher than their xwOBAs, and those are Taylor Walls and Isaac Paredes. It's not like those two have been responsible for a disproportionate amount of their HR.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is not on Bloom, but how would the Sox have fared if Trey Ball and Jasom Groome would not have such huge misses? Certainly affects where they are right now.

That would be quite a rabbit hole, given that every other team drafting that high has had their own draft busts. That 2013 draft with Ball was one miss after another.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Major_League_Baseball_draft
Plus we are talking about guys who were or would have been Rule 5 by now, as Groome was (and he's stinking up AAA). Now, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes in the 4th round? Sign me up for that.

 

[Max Power]

Why don't you believe in the Rays' ability to keep hitting homers? They have two players with wOBAs notably higher than their xwOBAs, and those are Taylor Walls and Isaac Paredes. It's not like those two have been responsible for a disproportionate amount of their HR.

What does xwOBA have to do with hitting homers?

Yandi Diaz's homers/AB is 4x his career number. Josh Lowe hit 2 last year in 181 AB and has 11 so far this year. Jose Siri has hit 12, and had 7 in twice as many at bats last year. 28 year old nobody Luke Raley has 12 after hitting 3 in his other 127 ML at bats. They're getting a lot of power out of guys who haven't done it before. Maybe they all figured it out at the same time and everyone in the lineup is going to hit 25 this year. Or maybe they're simply playing over their heads for the first couple months.

 

[8slim]

Well, there are currently five rookies who received substantial development in the Red Sox minor league system and are right now making significant contributions to the big league roster. Beyond that, there are encouraging signs of development up and down the Sox minor league system. If that's lacking as a development machine, I have no idea what succeeding as a development machine would look like.

I imagine succeeding is what 2016-2018 looked like. Basically half (or more) of a lineup comprised of homegrown guys making major contributions to a playoff team. We’re not there yet, hopefully we will be.

 

[Archer1979]

I imagine succeeding is what 2016-2018 looked like. Basically half (or more) of a lineup comprised of homegrown guys making major contributions to a playoff team. We’re not there yet, hopefully we will be.

Yeah. I think significant is doing some heavy lifting. They're currently a last place team in a tough division contending for the third wild card spot. How significant can they really be? They look like they could be solid major leaguers but the only rookie on the team that is in the ROY discussion was a free agent signing. I said earlier in another thread that if all we get out of this youth movement is a bunch of average cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency, we've wasted a tremendous amount of time.

 

[simplicio]

Yeah. I think significant is doing some heavy lifting. They're currently a last place team in a tough division contending for the third wild card spot. How significant can they really be? They look like they could be solid major leaguers but the only rookie on the team that is in the ROY discussion was a free agent signing. I said earlier in another thread that if all we get out of this youth movement is a bunch of average cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency, we've wasted a tremendous amount of time.

Cool story, how many of Bloom's picks have made the majors yet?

 

[Archer1979]

Cool story, how many of Bloom's picks have made the majors yet?

Drafting is only part if it. Bloom is president of the whole enchilada. This also includes scouting and development which I think could be better. Casas was an All-Olympic first baseman yet isn't inspiring at first base. Duran is better than he was last year, but had terrible reads on balls hit to center. I can see where an adjustment period between levels is sometimes needed, but fielding is fielding regardless of the level. A large part of why I'm not optimistic about this team in the long-term is defense. Defense is something that is coachable and, with the exception of Wong, we're getting a lot of young guys whose gloves are a liability.

 

[Bergs]

Cool story, how many of Bloom's picks have made the majors yet?

As many as your posts have been intellectually honest?

 

[simplicio]

As many as your posts have been intellectually honest?

???

 

[Bergs]

???

My bad. Totally misinterpreted a sequence of posts there.

 

[lexrageorge]

Yeah. I think significant is doing some heavy lifting. They're currently a last place team in a tough division contending for the third wild card spot. How significant can they really be? They look like they could be solid major leaguers but the only rookie on the team that is in the ROY discussion was a free agent signing. I said earlier in another thread that if all we get out of this youth movement is a bunch of average cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency, we've wasted a tremendous amount of time.

Bello, Whitlock, Houck all look like keepers with their best years ahead of them.

The purpose of having a bunch of cost-controlled players that are major league capable is that it gives the team the financial resources to fill in the key holes via free agency and trades. It was never going to be a quick process, and that is a process that Henry both signed up for and actively endorsed.

 

[scottyno]

Yeah. I think significant is doing some heavy lifting. They're currently a last place team in a tough division contending for the third wild card spot. How significant can they really be? They look like they could be solid major leaguers but the only rookie on the team that is in the ROY discussion was a free agent signing. I said earlier in another thread that if all we get out of this youth movement is a bunch of average cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency, we've wasted a tremendous amount of time.

Since when can you easily sign average players in free agency for nothing?

 

[Archer1979]

Bello, Whitlock, Houck all look like keepers with their best years ahead of them.

The purpose of having a bunch of cost-controlled players that are major league capable is that it gives the team the financial resources to fill in the key holes via free agency and trades. It was never going to be a quick process, and that is a process that Henry both signed up for and actively endorsed.

I agree with all of this, but... do we really see Bloom going out and paying ten years for another team's superstar free agent (which seems to be the going rate)? The only way the Sox are getting great players is through development (and most likely short-term rentals) or trades. Its probably a wise strategy given how the Sox were burned by Crawford and Panda, but it all comes down to drafting and development if that is indeed the case. I'm not saying that they will never offer a FA contract, as they have and they will. But they're never going to be in on a player that's getting superstar money and years unless its internal and they have full access to medicals (like Devers and X).

Since when can you easily sign average players in free agency for nothing?

You can't. Free agency is something that they'll need to do to fill in the gaps... which is why drafting and developing the same types of players is waste if they don't start getting some generational talent come through their farm.

 

[8slim]

Cool story, how many of Bloom's picks have made the majors yet?

None. And that was the point. I was replying to a post that talked about “substantial development” and “significant contributions”. I hope that Bloom’s draftees flood the major league roster and are great players. At the moment, precisely none of them are. And that’s understandable. But I’m a bit hesitant to start leaning into some “development machine” take.
It hasn’t happened yet, and we’ve seen when it did, all of 5 years ago.

 

[simplicio]

Drafting is only part if it. Bloom is president of the whole enchilada. This also includes scouting and development which I think could be better. Casas was an All-Olympic first baseman yet isn't inspiring at first base. Duran is better than he was last year, but had terrible reads on balls hit to center. I can see where an adjustment period between levels is sometimes needed, but fielding is fielding regardless of the level. A large part of why I'm not optimistic about this team in the long-term is defense. Defense is something that is coachable and, with the exception of Wong, we're getting a lot of young guys whose gloves are a liability.

Sure, that's another aspect, though I disagree with the assessment. One thing I'm seeing in the minors this year seems to be a lot of the older class (Dombrowski's guys) faltering, but a ton of unexpected improvement in the lower minors. Hard to tell one way or another how the lost 2020 season may have affected things too.

As for defense specifically, most of Bloom's picks tend toward average I think? With some exceptions of both sides. Nothing really stands out to me as him ignoring D. Obviously Casas and Duran haven't been strong defensively, but in the mid-term we're looking at Rafaela and Mayer as very exciting guys in the field. Also we did see massive improvement at the major league level from both Verdugo and Duran over last year, and even Valdez looked to me like he improved defensively (a low bar) in his time up.

 

[BringBackMo]

Yeah. I think significant is doing some heavy lifting. They're currently a last place team in a tough division contending for the third wild card spot. How significant can they really be? They look like they could be solid major leaguers but the only rookie on the team that is in the ROY discussion was a free agent signing. I said earlier in another thread that if all we get out of this youth movement is a bunch of average cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency, we've wasted a tremendous amount of time.

EDIT: Strongly disagree. Five rookies all making significant contributions is a much more impressive feat of prospect development than a single ROY candidate. As to those contributions not being significant simply because the Sox, who have a winning record, are in last place, well, I don’t even understand what that means. Teams in their contention window, which we all agree the Sox are not, don’t start five rookies. The more accurate way to assess their contributions is that when the Sox do enter their contention window, it is entirely plausible that all five of this year’s rookies could be part of the team.