How long will Chaim last?
- Thread starter tims4wins
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It does not really make sense to conflate 1-year commitments with long term commitments.
The more accurate comp for that is something like...
Wong + Verdugo + Yoshida 4.9 bWAR ($25m)
Betts 3.0 bWAR ($25.6m)
Just like you picked those two short-term contracts to tell a story, I could tell a far different one like this...
Wong + Verdugo + Turner + Martin 6.2 bWAR ($24.6m)
Betts 3.0 bWAR ($25.6m)
[Edited to fix tone]
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The discussion over fully tanking is an interesting one. I think it’s fair to argue a 5-year tank job may not be an option.
BUT, it’s still really frustrating when they misplay the trade deadline like last year. We held on to assets we weren’t going to be able to keep long-term and didn’t manage to the luxury tax threshold effectively.
Whether that was Chaim or ownership’s doing is hard to know, but it was undeniably stupid. Every Sox fan knew the team wasn’t making a playoff run last year, and they could have traded some guys.
I also share the frustration around the defense, especially since that should be an area you can address even while managing to a payroll target.
BUT, it’s still really frustrating when they misplay the trade deadline like last year. We held on to assets we weren’t going to be able to keep long-term and didn’t manage to the luxury tax threshold effectively.
Whether that was Chaim or ownership’s doing is hard to know, but it was undeniably stupid. Every Sox fan knew the team wasn’t making a playoff run last year, and they could have traded some guys.
I also share the frustration around the defense, especially since that should be an area you can address even while managing to a payroll target.
I think this topic has been discussed, analyzed and beaten to death several times already but if you look at what assets Bloom had to sell, they were: JDM (seriously regressing), Wacha (injured) Eovaldi (injured) X (no trade) and that’s really it other than Vaz.
Around the entire league, other teams that were sellers didn’t do much. Returns were shit… buyers held all the cards.
We can barely handle being a .500 team. How many “god this team sucks” comments have been made about the Red Sox, who are .500 in what is by miles the best division in baseball?
I don't think this is the argument you're making, but I'm getting so tired of people mentioning how they're playing in the best division in baseball. I wouldn't feel any better about the prospects of the 2023 Red Sox making some noise in the playoffs if they were second in the AL Central, or fourth in the AL West. A team playing dumb baseball with poor roster construction and a lot of injuries isn't any better if they're in a different division, right?
Well, even though the schedules are more balanced than in years past, they're still playing more games against AL East opponents than against other teams. (I mean, more games vs. TB than, say, vs. Sea) And my guess is that they could possibly be a few games better. If they were three games better at 38-32 (.543, which would be 88-win pace), I'd think most of us would be thinking, hey they've got a legit shot at the playoffs, and with their rotation (especially if Sale manages to return healthy), they've got a shot to do something in the playoffs. At least I sure would. 2021 showed that if you're in, you've got a chance to do something.
Clearly they need to improve. Nobody questions that. But they don't "suck". And my point in that other post was simply that we as a fan base really wouldn't tolerate a full tank job, since we can't even really handle them being a .500 team.
I definitely agree with that one!
I get what you mean about a swing of a few games making a difference, but I feel like a lot of things would have to break right for this team to go anywhere, even if the record was a little better. But, I'm a pessimist!
I get what your saying, and to some extent, I agree with you, but if my math is correct, the Sox are 11-11 against the AL East and 24-24 against the balance of the opponents. Could part of the problem be the Sox are not beating the teams they should be beating? Or is it that, this is what we are...a .500 team
I think the general consensus was- in the preseason- that they’re a possible 84 win team, better than last season, and positioning itself to be even better going forward, with payroll flexibility, young players getting experience and a solid core developing. Possible playoff wildcard team if things break right.
That’s pretty much exactly the place they’re at still.
Well they're definitely struggling against bad teams this year so far, no doubt about that.
1-2 vs Cin (35-34)
0-3 vs Pit (34-35)
0-3 vs StL (28-43)
1-2 vs Col (29-44)
That's 2-10 against teams that are a combined 126-156 (.447). If they're just 6-6 against those teams (which would still be bad), they'd be at 39-31 (.557, which is a 90-win pace over 162 games).
It’s 3am here so I should be sleeping, but I would be willing to bet that at least 3 of those 10 losses were directly attributable to bad defense or blown saves. I can think of two vs STL off the top of my head.
Sleep deprived logic and all, but a better defensive team or better bullpen choices wins those. Excited about the young pitching staff, but must be incredibly deflating to go out there, shut them down for 6 or 7 innings, then watch your efforts pissed away.
Edit: 3am brain unsure who to blame, Chaim or Cora.
Sleep deprived logic and all, but a better defensive team or better bullpen choices wins those. Excited about the young pitching staff, but must be incredibly deflating to go out there, shut them down for 6 or 7 innings, then watch your efforts pissed away.
Edit: 3am brain unsure who to blame, Chaim or Cora.
If we're trying not to call the Sox a "bad" team at 35-35, then we probably shouldn't be considering the Reds and Pirates as "bad" teams either.
7-6 loss to Pit - bad starting pitching by Crawford
4-1 loss to Pit - offense mustered 4 total hits
4-1 loss to Pit - a whopping 5 hits for Boston
8-6 loss to StL - blown save by Jansen
4-3 loss to StL - blown save by Jansen with the stupid batters box shenanigans by StL
9-1 loss to StL - awful game
9-8 loss to Cin - Sox getting killed before 5-run rally in the 9th falls just short
5-4 loss to Cin - Winckowski (who's been really good this year) struggles badly in relief, plus bad defense
4-3 loss to Col - extra innings, Sox blow the lead in the 8th (Winckowski again); Sox have bases loaded in the 1st with nobody out and can't score
7-6 loss to Col - extra innings, Sox have runner at 2nd with nobody out in the 8th and can't score
That's six one-run losses to these teams. UGH.
4-1 loss to Pit - offense mustered 4 total hits
4-1 loss to Pit - a whopping 5 hits for Boston
8-6 loss to StL - blown save by Jansen
4-3 loss to StL - blown save by Jansen with the stupid batters box shenanigans by StL
9-1 loss to StL - awful game
9-8 loss to Cin - Sox getting killed before 5-run rally in the 9th falls just short
5-4 loss to Cin - Winckowski (who's been really good this year) struggles badly in relief, plus bad defense
4-3 loss to Col - extra innings, Sox blow the lead in the 8th (Winckowski again); Sox have bases loaded in the 1st with nobody out and can't score
7-6 loss to Col - extra innings, Sox have runner at 2nd with nobody out in the 8th and can't score
That's six one-run losses to these teams. UGH.
this is what I find hard to defend…they got overly excited about a competitive spurt and left a lot of value on the table. They are in a multi year rebuild and needed to do a bit better at asset extrication….and ditto this year.
DD left a messy roster and system; it was going to take some time. Chaim has built the system back up to “credible” if not more while avoiding more bad long term money. But… the on field product is both mediocre and boring and it’s hard to discern a plan to go from “not an expensive mess” to “competitor” at the moment. Combined with the payroll dip it’s one of the least energizing Sox seasons in memory.
My exact words were that the Sox don't "suck". I wouldn't consider Cincy and Pittsburgh team that suck either. But you'd think that they'd be teams the Sox should beat, or at least do better than 1-5 against.
No blame. A team with some potential shortcomings if most things dont break right is basically how it's set up. Non-tanking while putting out an "if things go well" playoff team. Basically, like '21.
Their records would suggest they're all fairly equal overall. 3-3 might be a fair expectation for those six games.
I think it is impossible to really evaluate Bloom. The team says its trying to win a championship and are contenders, when they dont spend to be competitive. I have no particular allegiance to Bloom, but the idea he is responsible for this shit show is ridiculous.
Isn’t shit show a bit hyperbolic? The Sox are 35-35, within 4 games of a playoff spot and are getting some intriguing performances from several interesting young players. It’s not great, but it’s not like we are dealing with the Royals or A’s or whatever. Situation could be way way worse! I, for one, feel better about this teams future than I did a few months ago.
I'm pretty anti-Bloom, but a lot of this is on the owners. The owners are the ones who told Bloom to slash payroll. The owners are the ones telling him whether he can go out and spend or whether he has to go bargain hunting. The owners are the ones who set this expectation that they will be competitive. I personally don't think Bloom is doing a good job but I also recognize it's not like he was given unlimited resources and a time machine/crystal ball. Some of his problems are because he is constrained by ownership.
This. A thousand times this. Whether you believe the plan is to tread water for the next season or two until some new window magically opens or that he's just trying to put together a good team via the clearance racks and has whiffed for two straight seasons, it's all being signed off on by JWH and Werner, maybe even on their orders. Bloom is just the face of their disinterest in doing what it takes to be a perennial contender in the AL East.
Based on the last four years, it seems the only constraint placed on Bloom is to go easy on long term contracts (3+ years). Because payroll overall hasn't really been significantly slashed.
2019: $249M
2020: $184M (full season contract commitments, not actual spending)
2021: $207M
2022: $236M
2023: $216M (commitments so far)
Apparently, what they really should have been doing was spending another $100M a year to really contend.
2019: $249M
2020: $184M (full season contract commitments, not actual spending)
2021: $207M
2022: $236M
2023: $216M (commitments so far)
Apparently, what they really should have been doing was spending another $100M a year to really contend.
Not splurging on big long term free agent contracts makes for some rather uninteresting off-seasons, but I think it’s likely the smart move- I mean, look at the performance even so far of all the big name guys this past off-season- it’s not great. Even the mid-tier of players the Sox were in on- for every Eflin there’s an Abreu, Haniger, and Segura (all guys I wanted the team to sign!).
Sox are now a game over .500 and within three games of a playoff spot. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played this season, and will be plenty of time for post-mortems when the time comes.
Sox are now a game over .500 and within three games of a playoff spot. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played this season, and will be plenty of time for post-mortems when the time comes.
To be a perennial contender requires a farm system. Which the Tampa Bay Rays has in abundance. It is also the least sexy, most patience-required aspect of team building, and does not yield instant results. It requires, you know, actual investment, nurture, and tending.
This aspect of team-building was -vastly- neglected under Dombrowski, and it's just starting to crop up in A/AA now. Whether Bloom can finish the job is a whole other question, but I think the whole 'prospects-building' aspect is a major, major part of building a perennial contender that wasn't being done under Dombrowski.
This doesn't seem accurate based on what's reported. I've read several reports that JWH and ownership stand by their GMs' decisions and are relatively hands off.
Also, the Sox just gave more than $540 million to three players over the last two offseasons. Less than the Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies and Rangers, but I think that's it.
Agreed. But then they should be 4-2 against StL and Col instead of 1-5. So that would mean a total of 7-5 instead of 2-10, which is a pickup of 5 games, which would (before today's game vs. NY) put them at 40-30 instead of 35-35. Huge difference.
Sure, but they also probably shouldn’t be 8-1 against the Yankees and Jays, right?
Probably not. But the question wasn't about how they're doing against good teams, but rather how crappy they're doing against lousy teams.
Right. And over the course of 162 games, it usually balances out (particular for a team on a ~.500 trajectory). They'll win some games against teams you don't expect them to beat and lose some games to teams you do expect them to beat. The 2018 Red Sox lost 4 out of 7 games to a terrible White Sox team (62-100). It happens.
Where are you getting your information? Going by spotrac, the Red Sox are 15th in the league in payroll this year: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
Through '22, they still had David Price on the books for retained salary ($16M) and through '21 they had Pedroia ($12M). Combined with the "pencil him for 150 innings and a 3.20 ERA every season, guaranteed" Chris Sale ($20M) on the injured list, that was about $38M of dead salary that counted towards payroll. Take that deadweight off the books in '21 and they were 15th in payroll. Take Price and Sale off the '22 team and they would have been massive spenders at... 13th on the list. Not even counting the last years of Martinez/JBJ and a host of others who were so awful that Bloom gets a pass for letting them walk rather than trying to trade them for a bag of balls.
As for hands off? Sure. "Slash payroll, I don't care how" is pretty hands off. I can't imagine Bloom took over the Red Sox and independent of anyone else's opinion, looked at Betts and thought "we need to ditch this guy ASAP" as his first order of business.
The fact that the Red Sox are not the A's or the Royals is an extremely low bar to clear. If they were that bad, no doubt both Bloom and Cora would have been shown the door.
Whatever happened to the thinking of holding the Red Sox to a standard of at least 92 to 95 wins a year or at least 89 plus wins? If you your opinion is popular that the fans are pleased that the Red Sox are not the A's then I don't know what to say. The Red Sox fans have truly gone soft.
Pretty sure chawson is referring to the Devers ($313M), Yoshida ($90M) and Story ($140M) deals that the Red Sox have given out since March of 2022.
Also, you can't just take "dead weight" contracts and ignore them. That's not how things work. That money counts whether the player misses the whole season, plays 162 games, or anything in between.
Lastly, the rank in spending doesn't mean a whole lot when much of the change from 2021 (6th) to 2022 (5th) to 2023 (11th per Cot's) is a bunch of teams started spending recklessly and wildly (Mets, Padres, Phillies, etc) rather than the Sox significantly lowering their actual payroll.
Red(s)HawksFan is correct, I was referring to Devers, Story and Yoshida. Those are three very large contracts the team has handed out in the last 15 months. There aren't many teams to have handed out more than $540 million in contracts over the last two years. We may not like the standings, but that's real spending.
This stuff reads like pure superstition to me. Have we already whiffed this year? It's June 18th. We have a roughly 20 percent chance to make the postseason, and it'll be higher once we kick the Yankees asses again tonight.
So I reject that this team is assembled from the "clearance racks." But if you insist, haven't we also put together a good team that way? Almost all of our smaller acquisitions this year have exceeded expectations (Duvall, Turner, Paxton, Jansen, Martin, even Reyes, plus other inexpensive plug-ins like Winckowski, Wong, McGuire, the entire better-than-average bullpen). The exceptions have been Kluber, who we've course corrected on, and I suppose Kiké, whose ineffectiveness is mitigated by so many of the other reasonable options (Andrus, Rojas, Wendle, Iglesias, Rosario) also coming up duds.
All of a sudden after sweepiing New York Yankees Chaim Bloom Red Sox now only 2 games out. Where are the nay sayers now? The Padres and Mets both suck after spending all that money.
Lol. The question is not one series but whether it can be sustained. The high water mark for 2023 so far was back on May 6th after the Sox had won eight in a row and were alone in 3rd place at 21-14. Fast forward 37 games, during which the Sox have gone 16-21, and are still comfortably in last place.
"comfortably in last place" is an interesting way to describe being 1.5 games behind Toronto and 2 games out of the playoffs. They're a decent team playing in a really tough division
Recent progress vs MFY notwithstanding, they were 2 games over 500 on June 1. They have played exactly .500 ball since then.
OTOH, was excited by the old school 4-1 victory last night - looked like a 1990s type win with Bello going 7, Wink with the 8th and Jansen closing it down. Loved it.
OTOH, was excited by the old school 4-1 victory last night - looked like a 1990s type win with Bello going 7, Wink with the 8th and Jansen closing it down. Loved it.
This team has had fits and starts for the last few years. It was an encouraging series, but I fully expect them to hover around .500 all year. Hope they prove me wrong!
So much of this discussion is playing the box scores, so while I am a Bloom defender, I will not just say "OMG he's right EXTEND CHAIM!!!" after a positive weekend. That Yankee team has no punch whatsoever and deserved what they got. It's probably most notable that the Sox finally caught a team on the way down for once. Even the "bad" teams have come in on warm-to-hot streaks this season.
But the team has built the single most important part of the team, the rotation, from younger players and when you add some hitting to that foundation, well, there's your plan. This will be a useful thread to revisit in three months, but judging the team's direction day-to-day is just not baseball.
But the team has built the single most important part of the team, the rotation, from younger players and when you add some hitting to that foundation, well, there's your plan. This will be a useful thread to revisit in three months, but judging the team's direction day-to-day is just not baseball.
The hope, I suppose is that there's a flukish streak (individually or collectively) in there that shifts 81 wins closer to 90, rather than a freak shitty streak that drops them closer to 70.
We all know the Farrell image, but I'm now wondering - what exact game did it come from?
I’ve tried to figure out which game it was from and still can’t. All I know is thatI remember Clay Buchholz was the pitcher when it happened. I’m also pretty sure it was 2016. So narrowing the search to his games from 2016 is probably the place to start.
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