How long will Chaim last?

[BringBackMo]

None. And that was the point. I was replying to a post that talked about “substantial development” and “significant contributions”. I hope that Bloom’s draftees flood the major league roster and are great players. At the moment, precisely none of them are. And that’s understandable. But I’m a bit hesitant to start leaning into some “development machine” take.
It hasn’t happened yet, and we’ve seen when it did, all of 5 years ago.

I’m having some trouble following your point here. Are you saying that the five rookies in question are not making significant contributions to the Red Sox this year? Or are you saying that because Bloom didn’t draft or sign Casas, Bello, or Crawford he doesn’t share in the credit for their development in the Sox system? How many years must a prospect spend in the system of a GM who didn’t draft him before that GM is entitled to some of the credit for his success? And how did Wong and Winckowski wind up in the Sox system before spending a couple of years of development in it. Does Bloom get any of the credit for their success in the majors?

 

[YTF]

I’m having some trouble following your point here. Are you saying that the five rookies in question are not making significant contributions to the Red Sox this year? Or are you saying that because Bloom didn’t draft or sign Casas, Bello, or Crawford he doesn’t share in the credit for their development in the Sox system? How many years must a prospect spend in the system of a GM who didn’t draft him before that GM is entitled to some of the credit for his success? And how did Wong and Winckowski wind up in the Sox system before spending a couple of years of development in it. Does Bloom get any of the credit for their success in the majors?

Add to this the fact that there were also a fair amount of people here who were of the mind that Bloom should have traded Houck to San Diego for Kim Ha-seong. Credit to Bloom for having the patience to go through some growing pains during that development.

 

[Archer1979]

Is this a legitimate opinion you are expressing here or are you just having fun with the board? Do you know anything about Bryan Bello and Tristan Casas? That’s a legitimate question. Are you seriously arguing that they are considered throughout baseball to be simply cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency? This is just an insane take. As to Connor Wong, Kutter Crawford, and Josh Winckowski, they are showing the potential to be, respectively, an everyday catcher, a number 4 starter, and a high-leverage reliever who can pitch multiple innings. All for peanuts. The ability to fill roles like that with cheap players is what allows teams to spend big on star players elsewhere. That you seem to somehow believe that one rookie competing for ROY is a more impressive feat of prospect development than five rookies all performing at league average or better is difficult to wrap my head around. (To say nothing of the fact that either or both of Bello and Casas could, over the course of their careers, easily outperform whoever wins ROY this year.) I guess we can agree to disagree that prospect development is a weakness for the Red Sox.

First... to the bolded... not going to happen going forward. Days of getting other team's big-name free agents are done. They've shown they're willing to do it for home-grown talent (Devers) but other teams' are a gamble that Henry and Co. will not make going forward. Even then, they let X go. We all want to believe that the Sox could be in on a player like Ohtani in the off-season, but the Sox aren't even going to pick up the phone. They'll go shopping in the bargain bin. Henry will spend big money for short years (see Kenley Jensen) but that's not what is going to get the blue chippers to come to Boston. Ten year contracts is the going rate for what guys in the upper echelon are going to get. Going into those deals, the buyer has to be aware that there will most likely be dead money at the tail end. Sox's strategy at playing this game is not to play. You want upper-echelon talent... it's only coming in on the cheap years via the farm system or, if we're lucky, the Sox can engineer a trade like Slocumb for Varitek and Lowe (and I'm not yet convinced that Bloom has the ability to get that sort of trade for another GM to bite). By default, the superstars are most likely going to need to come from the farm.

As far as Bello and Casas, they both have great potential as they could be great or they could be league average players. We don't know. Way too soon to tell on both. I wouldn't trade them at the trading deadline as there is enough there that bears keeping them. Bello has pitched a half season. I like what I see, but its been a half year. Casas has a ton of potential, but will he come close to his ceiling? He's hitting .215, but its only been a half year. The hope and expectation is that it will get better. But his work at first needs to improve. First basemen tend to become DH's if they can't play first base. They tend to get DFA'd if they can't hit and can't field (cough Dalbec cough).

I actually think that you're doing Wong a disservice as he is probably more at the level of Bello and Casas as opposed to Kutter and Winckowski. Everyday catchers are a commodity and good ones are hard to come by. Crawford and Winckowski are the type of guys that half the league spends time looking for during their off-seasons. The reason being is that there are a lot of them available. That said, I wouldn't trade them and I don't see them being available to trade. They're cost controlled and fill a need.

All that said, the organizational philosophy is a variation in the theme that has kept TB in contention through the recent years but with a higher payroll. This is why Bloom was hired. This requires that the farm produce Wander Francos at some point as the Sox FO is not going to repeat the same mistake that they made with Carl Crawford and Panda. Will it be Mayer, Rafaela? Hopefully, but its all potential, speculation, and wishcasting at this point.

 

[scottyno]

First... to the bolded... not going to happen going forward. Days of getting other team's big-name free agents are done. They've shown they're willing to do it for home-grown talent (Devers) but other teams' are a gamble that Henry and Co. will not make going forward.

They spent $105m for Yoshida and $140m for Story in the past 2 offseasons

 

[Archer1979]

They spent $105m for Yoshida and $140m for Story in the past 2 offseasons

Yoshida is five years. They'll spend that as its likely the deal will be worth it for the full five years.

Story was a desperation move that I doubt they would do again. His contract has pretty much under-scored why they shouldn't go after big-time FAs.

 

[scottyno]

Yoshida is five years. They'll spend that as its likely the deal will be worth it for the full five years.

Story was a desperation move that I doubt they would do again. His contract has pretty much under-scored why they shouldn't go after big-time FAs.

Why exactly was Story a "desperation move"? And if they'll spend big money for 5 years then they'll be able to sign plenty of really good free agents, even if you've decided, without any factual basis that I can tell, that they won't spend on any top guys.

 

[BaseballJones]

Add to this the fact that there were also a fair amount of people here who were of the mind that Bloom should have traded Houck to San Diego for Kim Ha-seong. Credit to Bloom for having the patience to go through some growing pains during that development.

You should go back to the threads where that was discussed and see the reason why people wanted to trade Houck.

 

[nvalvo]

Add to this the fact that there were also a fair amount of people here who were of the mind that Bloom should have traded Houck to San Diego for Kim Ha-seong. Credit to Bloom for having the patience to go through some growing pains during that development.

Yeah, it would really suck if we had the best defensive player in the major leagues by both Outs Above Average and dWAR, who is also a 98 OPS+ bat, who also plays a position of critical need for us.

bWAR has Houck being worth 0.8 WAR this season to Kim's 3.0. fWAR is a bit more circumspect, allotting Kim a 1.8 in WAR — same as Bogaerts — and Houck 0.9.

I don't know if that trade was ever actually available, but if it was, we should have done it.

 

[simplicio]

Did anyone think that trade was truly a possibility? I thought we all recognized it as BTV being silly giving them equal value.

 

[Sin Duda]

But, but, but we also would have likely signed Wacha instead of the Pads. We'd really be cooking.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I said earlier in another thread that if all we get out of this youth movement is a bunch of average cost-controlled players that could be easily replaced on the discount rack of free agency, we've wasted a tremendous amount of time.

Separate and apart from the greater discussion, I don't think this is a real thing. I mean, who were the players who are equivalent to Wong, Winckowski, Casas, Valdez, Duran, Houck, Bello, etc. who were just hanging about in free agency - let alone the subset of free agents who would actually sign with the Sox?

And assuming you can identify them, how much would it cost to sign those types of players in FA? I mean, relative to cost-controlled players?

And, lastly, it is reasonable to assume that the Sox (and only the Sox among the 30 ML teams) would be able to ID them, and so acquire them cheaply, and not get into a bidding war for their services?

***
As to the greater point, yes, we want players from the farm system who are going be above average players. But we're getting that right now out of at least Wong, Winckowski, and Duran.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

How is Casas not considered playing above average?

 

[Rovin Romine]

How is Casas not considered playing above average?

True. His season OPS+ is 97, but if one believes his past month is more predictive than his first (as I do personally), he should be included in that group, even if you ding him on defense.

 

[YTF]

You should go back to the threads where that was discussed and see the reason why people wanted to trade Houck.

There's WAY too much there across a couple of threads for me to want to revisit/unpack, but I'm happy that Houck is still here. I will say that I was very much on the fence about the discussions being had then. Given his defensive skills, fairly reasonable contract and the fact Kim seemed to be part of San Diego's plan for this season, the Padres were very much in the driver's seat if there was a deal to be had. I was anti-Kike' at SS as I preferred him in CF from the start and found Kim to be a very intriguing option, but wasn't overly enthused about the potential hole that would be left by moving Houck as part of the deal.

 

[chrisfont9]

It's easy to be down on Story now, like a lot of the recency-influenced takes here, but the reality is that they got a discount at a premium position because of the injury risk, which will end up costing them half to 2/3 of one of his six seasons. He is only signed thru age 35, his likely productive years, and for significantly less AAV than Bogey got. I guess it depends what he does next but I'd bet on the healed version being at least as good offensively as he was last year and in recent seasons (2.5-7BWAR player).

 

[TFisNEXT]

It's easy to be down on Story now, like a lot of the recency-influenced takes here, but the reality is that they got a discount at a premium position because of the injury risk, which will end up costing them half to 2/3 of one of his six seasons. He is only signed thru age 35, his likely productive years, and for significantly less AAV than Bogey got. I guess it depends what he does next but I'd bet on the healed version being at least as good offensively as he was last year and in recent seasons (2.5-7BWAR player).

Yes, it is very easy for all of us to forget that Story is only 30 years old and the final judgement on that signing has many miles to go. It's been a frustrating first 1.5 seasons in Boston, but if that injury turns out to be a fluke and he returns to playing his usual 140-150 games per year, I suspect that contract may look very good.

 

[Archer1979]

Separate and apart from the greater discussion, I don't think this is a real thing. I mean, who were the players who are equivalent to Wong, Winckowski, Casas, Valdez, Duran, Houck, Bello, etc. who were just hanging about in free agency - let alone the subset of free agents who would actually sign with the Sox?

And assuming you can identify them, how much would it cost to sign those types of players in FA? I mean, relative to cost-controlled players?

And, lastly, it is reasonable to assume that the Sox (and only the Sox among the 30 ML teams) would be able to ID them, and so acquire them cheaply, and not get into a bidding war for their services?

***
As to the greater point, yes, we want players from the farm system who are going be above average players. But we're getting that right now out of at least Wong, Winckowski, and Duran.

Well. that's not really my point(s). If it ever happens that there is such an exodus of talent like that at one time, the party's over. However, I'm really making multiple arguments and they're tending to blur into one another.

Development argument: As much as I like this crop of players (and they show a lot of potential), of the position players, Wong is the only one that that plays his position well. There seems to be a lot of OTJ training taking place at the major league level. Why is someone like Duran getting called up in 2022 when he's getting terrible reads on balls hit to center? I think a lot of Casas' problems at first are tied to the bad throws he's getting, but bad throws are part of the position. Most hitters require some period of adjustment so I'm not going to dump on him hitting .215 after only two and a half months. But for a team right now whose fielding has been atrocious, this is a problem, especially with the young pitchers who need some confidence in the team behind them.

Free Agency Argument: It's not so much that they signed Story and Matasaka, its that they're not going to be in on the Judge's, Ohtani's, and Correa's. Story was insurance for X so I can see why they deviated from going after premier free agents (especially sinc eit was only seven years). Story's signing, though, underscores why John Henry and Co. are going to shy away from that level of free agents. It's not so much the dollars but the years that are insane in today's market, although the dollars are pretty nuts too. Matasaka was a good signing. They got someone that only cost money for only five years. That said, FA signings like Jensen and Matasaka will be the ceiling on the type of player that they'll pick up via free agency. I don''t see how they'll ever be in on a Max Scherzer-type of pitcher via FA. Which leads me to...

Home-grown talent: I'll also add in international draft/signings and Rule V picks. This is how the Sox are going to build the bulk of their roster based on what I believe is Bloom's philosophy. I specifically didn't use the word plan as that is probably too confining for something as dynamic as this. The core is going to come from this. If Bloom came from NY or another large market organization, it would make sense that FA would play a larger part. But I believe Bloom was hired to bring the TB philosophy north. I just don't know how, if, or to what extent, the Sox will tap into their checkbook. But one of the hallmarks of the TB front office is they will not mortgage their future and quite honestly, I don't think that the Sox need to either, if Bloom executes well. But, it's all going to come down to the players that they have come through their organization and how willing Bloom might be to trade away some talent to bring back a premier player (which is how I suspect that they'll need to build a solid starting rotation). This is where I was coming from with being disappointed if they just end up adding average players. They'll need to add some game changers as well.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Free Agency Argument: It's not so much that they signed Story and Matasaka, its that they're not going to be in on the Judge's, Ohtani's, and Correa's.

Shrug. There's very little evidence that keystone players make a difference in winning, absent a solid team around them. A-Rod in TX, Ohtani in LAA, Correra at wherever he is now.

The FSG has historically shown shown it will spend money. Recently it has committed significant money and years to sign FAs or extent talent (Devers, Yoshida and Story - however one might try to discount them.)

I think if the team has a core of young cost-controlled talent and then does not augment them with FA talent, you'll have a valid point. At the moment though, the core is developing (before our eyes) and the org has stabilized the team with short term FA contracts in positions of need (bullpen, OF, etc.).

Arguing they won't be in on Ohtani is most likely accurate (and truth be told, I'm not sure I want in on him as a fan.) But it does not follow that they wouldn't spend money to acquire premium FA talent in the 2024 or 2025 off-season, provided they're not committing to a high-risk club-hobbling contract.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Development argument: As much as I like this crop of players (and they show a lot of potential), of the position players, Wong is the only one that that plays his position well. There seems to be a lot of OTJ training taking place at the major league level. Why is someone like Duran getting called up in 2022 when he's getting terrible reads on balls hit to center? I think a lot of Casas' problems at first are tied to the bad throws he's getting, but bad throws are part of the position. Most hitters require some period of adjustment so I'm not going to dump on him hitting .215 after only two and a half months. But for a team right now whose fielding has been atrocious, this is a problem, especially with the young pitchers who need some confidence in the team behind them.

How many rookies DON'T need any OTJ training though? I'd guess that 90% are pretty below average players for at least their first year... 2nd year closer to 70%? And I'm just thinking of the rookies that are high-projectable prospect types... not the call-up/send-down type rookies

 

[Archer1979]

Shrug. There's very little evidence that keystone players make a difference in winning, absent a solid team around them. A-Rod in TX, Ohtani in LAA, Correra at wherever he is now.

The FSG has historically shown shown it will spend money. Recently it has committed significant money and years to sign FAs or extent talent (Devers, Yoshida and Story - however one might try to discount them.)

I think if the team has a core of young cost-controlled talent and then does not augment them with FA talent, you'll have a valid point. At the moment though, the core is developing (before our eyes) and the org has stabilized the team with short term FA contracts in positions of need (bullpen, OF, etc.).

Arguing they won't be in on Ohtani is most likely accurate (and truth be told, I'm not sure I want in on him as a fan.) But it does not follow that they wouldn't spend money to acquire premium FA talent in the 2024 or 2025 off-season, provided they're not committing to a high-risk club-hobbling contract.

I actually agree with you more than you think... but, there was a counter-argument that they would use the money saved from having cost-controlled talent to funnel into premier free agents. I just don't see it happening with this franchise currently. They'll use FA to fill in the gaps but only to a point.

That said, one thing I do want to point out is that they will be willing to do it for extensions (as they did with Devers). The difference being is that Devers is a 100% known commodity to them. They know he's a good fit in the organization as well as with Boston. They know his medical info. There are less risks with extending their own player as opposed to finding out the Carl Crawford was going to miserable in Boston after he arrived.

As an aside, I give John Henry credit for taking this approach. Yeah, signing Ohtani will sell tickets and increase ratings, but the type of contract he'll get is going to be insane. It really comes down to maximizing the value of the cost-controlled years and letting someone else pay for the declining years. With these mega-contracts (and even the non-mega contracts) the dollars that are spent seem to be more compensating the player for what they did in the cost-controlled years even though its unlikely that you'll get that value after the player has hit free agency.

 

[Archer1979]

How many rookies DON'T need any OTJ training though? I'd guess that 90% are pretty below average players for at least their first year... 2nd year closer to 70%? And I'm just thinking of the rookies that are high-projectable prospect types... not the call-up/send-down type rookies

For defense though? Defense is about reps and knowing the game situation. You hear a lot about facing major-league pitching, and as I said, some period of adjustment has to be expected. But playing the field in the majors is pretty much the same as playing the field in the minors.

 

[chrisfont9]

But I believe Bloom was hired to bring the TB philosophy north. I just don't know how, if, or to what extent, the Sox will tap into their checkbook. But one of the hallmarks of the TB front office is they will not mortgage their future and quite honestly, I don't think that the Sox need to either, if Bloom executes well. But, it's all going to come down to the players that they have come through their organization and how willing Bloom might be to trade away some talent to bring back a premier player (which is how I suspect that they'll need to build a solid starting rotation). This is where I was coming from with being disappointed if they just end up adding average players. They'll need to add some game changers as well.

Did we ever get anything this explicit from Bloom or FSG? Maybe we did or maybe it's just intuitive that he would share the TB outlook in his current job. I do get a little squishy on what that even means though. Tampa's only true hallmark is being too cheap to keep their guys on expensive veteran contracts, and repeatedly proving what a lot of us take as gospel now -- that those contracts are not only poor value on their face, but you can usually deal your impending free agent for some meaningful value. Maybe they work the failed prospect scrap heap more than others, although everyone is more interested in that now, and it's the Astros as much as any team which proved that spin rates could translate into value with some specific coaching. Anyway, it's clear that Bloom's philosophy is more focused on depth than top-heavy roster building the Angels or Rangers way (hard pass), but beyond that I don't know that they are doing anything that other teams, not just Tampa, are also doing?

 

[Archer1979]

Did we ever get anything this explicit from Bloom or FSG? Maybe we did or maybe it's just intuitive that he would share the TB outlook in his current job. I do get a little squishy on what that even means though. Tampa's only true hallmark is being too cheap to keep their guys on expensive veteran contracts, and repeatedly proving what a lot of us take as gospel now -- that those contracts are not only poor value on their face, but you can usually deal your impending free agent for some meaningful value. Maybe they work the failed prospect scrap heap more than others, although everyone is more interested in that now, and it's the Astros as much as any team which proved that spin rates could translate into value with some specific coaching. Anyway, it's clear that Bloom's philosophy is more focused on depth than top-heavy roster building the Angels or Rangers way (hard pass), but beyond that I don't know that they are doing anything that other teams, not just Tampa, are also doing?

I haven't seen anything definitively, so I readily concede that my take is pure speculation but its based on what I've seen and what I haven't seen.

I'll use Trevor Story as an example. Looking back, Story was obviously insurance in case the Sox lost X. Second base isn't where this team was going to park its cash for seven years. It also explains why they weren't in on what Correa's eventually got, which was a one year deal as then the Sox FO could have had both X and Correa leaving in the 2022 off-season. Granted Correa's medicals ended up being a thing, but that wasn't information that was readily apparent in the 2021 off-season. Boras was going to get Correa a mega-deal. So why weren't the Sox in on him before Correa went with the one year prove it deal? At that point they wouldn't have been bidding against themselves as everyone but Minnesota had dropped out. Hopefully this story (pardon the pun) has a happy ending with Mayer being the superstar SS of the future and Story moves to second. But it's an instance where the Sox had a real need that could have been filled with FA mega-deal and instead went with the next shelf down.

Bloom has to have been hired for the TB-like philosophy. But, there are a couple of hurdles to leap with trying to transplant that in Boston. First is that the Sox will not generally trade their home-grown talent during the off-season. For something like Betts or X, TB wouldn't have thought twice about sending them out for blue-chip prospects. When the Sox did that with Mookie, we're still litigating whether sending Mookie to LA was the right move or not. The Sox will normally hold on and try to extend in the off-season. And, its also how TB reinfuses their organization with young talent so if Boston doesn't wholly adopt this part of the approach, they somewhat lose an avenue to restock their farm.

The other hurdle is that TB doesn't take on long-term salary in a deal. They might take on the remaining salary for the current year and let the player walk at the end of the year, but that's about it. I'm hoping that this is where Bloom differs from the TB-philosophy if the Sox are a player or two from getting over the hump. The other thing is that TB won't empty out the farm and go into a go for it all now mode.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I haven't seen anything definitively, so I readily concede that my take is pure speculation but its based on what I've seen and what I haven't seen.

I'll use Trevor Story as an example. Looking back, Story was obviously insurance in case the Sox lost X. Second base isn't where this team was going to park its cash for seven years. It also explains why they weren't in on what Correa's eventually got, which was a one year deal as then the Sox FO could have had both X and Correa leaving in the 2022 off-season. Granted Correa's medicals ended up being a thing, but that wasn't information that was readily apparent in the 2021 off-season. Boras was going to get Correa a mega-deal. So why weren't the Sox in on him before Correa went with the one year prove it deal? At that point they wouldn't have been bidding against themselves as everyone but Minnesota had dropped out. Hopefully this story (pardon the pun) has a happy ending with Mayer being the superstar SS of the future and Story moves to second. But it's an instance where the Sox had a real need that could have been filled with FA mega-deal and instead went with the next shelf down.

Bloom has to have been hired for the TB-like philosophy. But, there are a couple of hurdles to leap with trying to transplant that in Boston. First is that the Sox will not generally trade their home-grown talent during the off-season. For something like Betts or X, TB wouldn't have thought twice about sending them out for blue-chip prospects. When the Sox did that with Mookie, we're still litigating whether sending Mookie to LA was the right move or not. The Sox will normally hold on and try to extend in the off-season. And, its also how TB reinfuses their organization with young talent so if Boston doesn't wholly adopt this part of the approach, they somewhat lose an avenue to restock their farm.

The other hurdle is that TB doesn't take on long-term salary in a deal. They might take on the remaining salary for the current year and let the player walk at the end of the year, but that's about it. I'm hoping that this is where Bloom differs from the TB-philosophy if the Sox are a player or two from getting over the hump. The other thing is that TB won't empty out the farm and go into a go for it all now mode.

Because not all mega-deals are equal. Most are paying guys past their age 33-35 seasons (post decline) while the Story one is not. Bloom saw that Correa was likely going to be getting $300M for 10 years but similar production for Story for less time and years. Isn't this obvious.... looking for value even within the mega contracts?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

For defense though? Defense is about reps and knowing the game situation. You hear a lot about facing major-league pitching, and as I said, some period of adjustment has to be expected. But playing the field in the majors is pretty much the same as playing the field in the minors.

Sure... generally agree that defense translates quicker to the ML's from AAA but there's still a notable drag, no? I could be wrong, but there was some discussion about this and while mL defensive statistics are hard to come by, it's mostly based on scouting. Again- I'm recalling this- scouts talking up mL player X's great defense and then finding them to be less than advertised for a little while at the ML level. I don't think the delta there is the same as it is on offense, but I do believe there's notable gaps

 

[Rovin Romine]

I actually agree with you more than you think... but, there was a counter-argument that they would use the money saved from having cost-controlled talent to funnel into premier free agents. I just don't see it happening with this franchise currently. They'll use FA to fill in the gaps but only to a point.

Well, clearly that point was to just under the tax threshold this year.

And it was pretty intelligently spent:

- Extend Devers long term​

- Sign Yoshida long term​

+​

- Sign Martin (setup man) 2/$16M​

- Sign Jansen (closer) 2/$8.5M​

- Sign Turner (dh) 2/$10M​

+​

- sign Hernandez to a 1 yr deal (CF/SS) $10M​

- sign Duvall (RHH) to a 1 yr deal (CF/OF/DH) - $7M​

- sign Kluber to a 1 yr deal (SP) - $10M​

The 2 year pitching deals give you bullpen coverage, letting you both move your younger better arms (Houck/Whitlock) into the rotation, and mess around with a "find the good pitcher" approach for the last man in the pen.

Turner gives you 1B/3B coverage while being your quasi-dedicated DH, covering Casas and spelling Devers.

The short term position player deals addressed OF/middle IF depth. Hernandez was signed prior to Story going down, IIRC, which gave them an OF of Verdugo, Duvall, Hernandez, Yoshida (and Refsnyder pre-arb).

If you wanted to plan it out, this is probably the more optimal place holding configurations they could have come up with. It gives pretty good coverage for the younger generation of players transitioning into full-time roles on the club.


Sure, Kluber was a miss - but not the worst one by far. Jean Segura at 2B for 2/$17M (injured with a .493 OPS). Jose Abreu as a 1B/DH at 3/$19M (.587 OPS).

 

[scottyno]

Sox probably weren't in on Correa for the same reason they weren't really in on X, it doesn't make much sense to lock up shortstop long term on anyone with Mayer coming.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Counterpoint - 2013.

Also, I'm not sure that list passes the sniff test; Hernandez and Arroyo have been awful. Duval and Duran have been excellent. Wong and McGuire have been very good - top 3rd in the AL, certainly.

If the argument is that we shouldn't have run Ben Cherington out of town, I'm inclined to agree with you except for 2018.

 

[Benj4ever]

If the argument is that we shouldn't have run Ben Cherington out of town, I'm inclined to agree with you except for 2018.

Well, we'll never know what would have happened if he'd stayed. Personally, I believe that the "process" would have swung into motion that much sooner.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Well, we'll never know what would have happened if he'd stayed. Personally, I believe that the "process" would have swung into motion that much sooner.

Ben had some terrible drafts, traded what would have been a very good player away for what ended up being nothing in Josh Reddick (and held onto the lesser Ryan Kalish because of lower level OBP skills). I'm not sure how much input he had on the Hanley and Panda disasters but I think his general angle was basically what Bloom is doing (at least when he started.... and I think the success of 2013 ended up screwing that plan up.... worth it!).

 

[curly2]

I'll use Trevor Story as an example. Looking back, Story was obviously insurance in case the Sox lost X.

I don't think Story was ever insurance. I think Bloom signed Story knowing he was going to let Bogaerts leave after 2022--unless Bogaerts signed a very team-friendly contract.

When Bloom offered to tack one year on the three-year option that everyone knew Bogey was going to decline, that was a sign that Chaim was ready to move on. Bloom had to know there was no way Bogaerts would even consider that. I just think Bloom preferred Story over Bogaerts. I would have preferred keeping X but that doesn't mean I think Story is garbage. If his elbow recovers fully I think he will be a good shortstop until he shifts back to second whenever Meyer is ready, and I hope he can rebound offensively from his 2022 performance.

 

[Archer1979]

Sox probably weren't in on Correa for the same reason they weren't really in on X, it doesn't make much sense to lock up shortstop long term on anyone with Mayer coming.

There were two recent instances of Correa becoming a FA. First one preceded the draft of Mayer, which was the one that I was referring to. The second one was the debacle with the medical records that every GM who was in on Correa breathed a big sigh of relief and promptly went home and hugged their children.

 

[Archer1979]

I don't think Story was ever insurance. I think Bloom signed Story knowing he was going to let Bogaerts leave after 2022--unless Bogaerts signed a very team-friendly contract.

When Bloom offered to tack one year on the three-year option that everyone knew Bogey was going to decline, that was a sign that Chaim was ready to move on. Bloom had to know there was no way Bogaerts would even consider that. I just think Bloom preferred Story over Bogaerts. I would have preferred keeping X but that doesn't mean I think Story is garbage. If his elbow recovers fully I think he will be a good shortstop until he shifts back to second whenever Meyer is ready, and I hope he can rebound offensively from his 2022 performance.

I'd buy that, but the length of Story's contract is what puzzled me. The only thing that I can think of is that, since they had access to X's medicals, they might have seen something that suggested that X was going to turn into a pumpkin sooner rather than later.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

There were two recent instances of Correa becoming a FA. First one preceded the draft of Mayer, which was the one that I was referring to. The second one was the debacle with the medical records that every GM who was in on Correa breathed a big sigh of relief and promptly went home and hugged their children.

Correa was a free agent following the 2021 season. Mayer was drafted in June 2021.

 

[Van Everyman]

My father and I spent about 45 minutes discussing what the Sox and Bloom were doing this weekend. Neither of us are particularly upset about the Sox--everything for him has been gravy since 2004 and I'm kind of close--and both of us kind of like Bloom in general, and are grateful to Henry. But it was hard to pinpoint what exactly has been going on with Henry and Bloom.

Some of the questions we asked each other, with no actual resolution:

1) Is there some kind of payroll mandate going on? Hard to say. The team isn't slashing payroll but isn't going out of its way to spend big dollars either.
2) Was Henry trying to go back to the "I don't want to pay for past performance" Lester thing with Mookie and Xander and the decade-plus deals? Maybe, but then he went out and signed Devers to just that.
3) Is Henry going through another Ben Cherington-type era where he takes a few steps back and focuses on the farm? If so, it hasn't been that consistent, based on what happened last year at the deadline.
4) Did Henry and Bloom get a little complacent after 2021's overperformance? Did they think you could build a contender out of a few superstar players surrounded by spare parts and prospects?
5) Why didn't they try to keep the 2018 core together? Relatedly, why did Henry can Dombrowski so quickly in 2019? Did something happen? They did try to run it back that one year but moved 180 degrees in the other direction before that season was even over.
6) Why has Henry kind of gone underground since 2018? Did we just not notice him doing it after he parted ways with Lucchino a few years earlier? I still remember him taking to the airwaves after the 2011 collapse and, honestly, it was kind of cool.

The only thing we could really agree on was that it seemed like we don't know parts--likely significant parts--of the story. Notwithstanding WEEI callers' greatest fears, Henry doesn't seem to be disinterested in the team. He isn't exactly kneecapping Bloom, but it also doesn't seem like he's giving him free rein to build this team the way he wants to either. But it's also not clear that Bloom is doing any of this against his will. For all we know, he's totally on board with all of it. Just kind of odd.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'd buy that, but the length of Story's contract is what puzzled me. The only thing that I can think of is that, since they had access to X's medicals, they might have seen something that suggested that X was going to turn into a pumpkin sooner rather than later.

18 months ago all anyone could talk about was how Bogaerts' defense wasn't good enough to keep him at short. IIRC the Sox hinted at that same concern. That's why they made the moves they did after 2021. Bogaerts was going to ask for SS money to be a 3b or 1b with less power. He wanted a deal that we all would have hated. Then he played the position reasonably well for a season and got a contract that we can't even believe how much we would have hated. So the Sox were on to something.

 

[Archer1979]

Correa was a free agent following the 2021 season. Mayer was drafted in June 2021.

Thanks. I stand corrected. I may have blotted out more of 2022 than I had realized.

18 months ago all anyone could talk about was how Bogaerts' defense wasn't good enough to keep him at short. IIRC the Sox hinted at that same concern. That's why they made the moves they did after 2021. Bogaerts was going to ask for SS money to be a 3b or 1b with less power. He wanted a deal that we all would have hated. Then he played the position reasonably well for a season and got a contract that we can't even believe how much we would have hated. So the Sox were on to something.

Yeah, in hindsight, if what you're saying is true, that would have been a very tough decision for X to choose between staying at short or staying in Boston. Just my gut feel, but I think he was looking to basically been on the Jeter Plan and stayed at SS until he retired. Maybe that was one of the stumbling blocks besides years and money. At any rate, as much as I loved X, that contract is going to be very bad for San Diego at some point. Ten year deals that work out for the length of the deal are a rarity (if any have worked out).

 

[chrisfont9]

Thanks. I stand corrected. I may have blotted out more of 2022 than I had realized.



Yeah, in hindsight, if what you're saying is true, that would have been a very tough decision for X to choose between staying at short or staying in Boston. Just my gut feel, but I think he was looking to basically been on the Jeter Plan and stayed at SS until he retired. Maybe that was one of the stumbling blocks besides years and money. At any rate, as much as I loved X, that contract is going to be very bad for San Diego at some point. Ten year deals that work out for the length of the deal are a rarity (if any have worked out).

Lots of stuff like this (9/14/21) around, including all the way back to 2019.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nbcsports/is-it-time-for-xander-bogaerts-to-switch-positions/2491706/?src=rss

There was also a lot of stuff talking about how the Padres would probably have to move him off SS at some point, though apparently he's been playing reasonably well in the field so far in SD.

 

[Rovin Romine]

At any rate, as much as I loved X, that contract is going to be very bad for San Diego at some point. Ten year deals that work out for the length of the deal are a rarity (if any have worked out).

11 years, $280M. And it's not looking so great right now, given his reported shoulder problems. .546 OPS in May, and so far, .667 in June.

 

[JM3]

My father and I spent about 45 minutes discussing what the Sox and Bloom were doing this weekend. Neither of us are particularly upset about the Sox--everything for him has been gravy since 2004 and I'm kind of close--and both of us kind of like Bloom in general, and are grateful to Henry. But it was hard to pinpoint what exactly has been going on with Henry and Bloom.

Some of the questions we asked each other, with no actual resolution:

My thoughts...

1) Is there some kind of payroll mandate going on? Hard to say. The team isn't slashing payroll but isn't going out of its way to spend big dollars either.

I think the idea is to avoid big long term commitments to non-cornerstone players until there is enough cost controlled talent to really make a run at things. This is a tax reset year & I expect them to be comfortable going pretty far over the tax line next season.

2) Was Henry trying to go back to the "I don't want to pay for past performance" Lester thing with Mookie and Xander and the decade-plus deals? Maybe, but then he went out and signed Devers to just that.

Mookie they had to trade because the team would have been hugely expensive & they would have been at a large competitive disadvantage as a result in terms of IFA $, draft picks being moved down, etc., & paying a ton of money for a mediocre team because they had no cheap talent in the pipeline for about 3 more years. & they made him large offers & did not think they could sign him. So they got what they could for 1 season of him (& $48m of Price).

X is 4 years older than Devers & plays a position they expect Marcelo Mayer to take over. Which would mean X could slide down to 3B... but then what would you do with Devers? Devers is signed until he is 37, X until he's 42. Devers deal is much more likely to pay off than X's.

It's just a matter of value & timing, not some organizational mandate against long-term contracts.

3) Is Henry going through another Ben Cherington-type era where he takes a few steps back and focuses on the farm? If so, it hasn't been that consistent, based on what happened last year at the deadline.

I think in the Boston media market, the team is expected to at least try every year so they tried to thread the needle, acquiring potentially valuable prospects in Valdez/Abreu/Rosier, potential short term help in Pham/Hosmer, & a short & long-term catching option in McGuire who out-performed the only real player they gave up to get these things - Vazquez.

The other things they had that they didn't trade weren't really valuable. They could have gotten under the tax by salary dumping JD (who was in the midst of an awful slump), but Wacha & Eovaldi were injured & they wouldn't really have gotten much of anything talent-wise & it would have been purely financially motivated, which they would have gotten killed for. It also seems clear they planned to be under the tax for '23, so the 20% playoff chances or whatever it was, was more valuable to them then the slight increase in draft capital they would have gotten from losing X/Eo after QOs.

4) Did Henry and Bloom get a little complacent after 2021's overperformance? Did they think you could build a contender out of a few superstar players surrounded by spare parts and prospects?

No. They knew they weren't ready yet as they still didn't have enough cost-controlled talent so they continued to keep trying to build around the edges & dumpster dive while not interfering with their window, which opens next year now that they have bad contracts off the books & a healthy amount of cost-controlled talent.

The complacent thing to do is to think you don't need to be patient anymore & overvalue the quality of your team & go all in before it would be prudent to.

5) Why didn't they try to keep the 2018 core together? Relatedly, why did Henry can Dombrowski so quickly in 2019? Did something happen? They did try to run it back that one year but moved 180 degrees in the other direction before that season was even over.

Because most of the 2018 core currently sucks & makes a ton of $. It was a hugely unsustainable as a long-term strategy.

DD decimated the farm system to get really good players but the problem is he didn't replenish the system. There was a gap of about 3 or 4 years where nothing of significance came through. That's partially on DD & partially on Cherington, but that whole aspect of the organization was neglected & it's the most significant factor in building a sustainable successful franchise. DD has proven that he does not have the aptitude for it.

6) Why has Henry kind of gone underground since 2018? Did we just not notice him doing it after he parted ways with Lucchino a few years earlier? I still remember him taking to the airwaves after the 2011 collapse and, honestly, it was kind of cool.

Idk & idrc.

The only thing we could really agree on was that it seemed like we don't know parts--likely significant parts--of the story. Notwithstanding WEEI callers' greatest fears, Henry doesn't seem to be disinterested in the team. He isn't exactly kneecapping Bloom, but it also doesn't seem like he's giving him free rein to build this team the way he wants to either. But it's also not clear that Bloom is doing any of this against his will. For all we know, he's totally on board with all of it. Just kind of odd.

I think the plan in place is the only sustainable model, & as I've said for a while I expect them to start a really long string of playoff appearances starting no later than '24.

There is a clear model right now that leads to sustainable success, & the Red Sox are now lined up to begin that type of run.

Dodgers - 10 straight years
Astros - 6 years
Yankees - 6 years
Braves - 5 years
Rays - 4 years
Cards - 4 years

 

[curly2]

11 years, $280M. And it's not looking so great right now, given his reported shoulder problems. .546 OPS in May, and so far, .667 in June.

I am a big X fan, but I absolutely don't think the Sox should have matched this or come close. If reports are true that Bogaerts would have signed the Story contract (or close to it) in 2022, I would have rather given it to Bogaerts.

 

[chawson]

I had basically forgotten that Martinez is still playing baseball. He's crushing it with the Dodgers (shock!).

15 homers, 43 rbi, .269/.305/.613/.918, 139 ops+

Leads the league in slugging. Amazing. He had 16 homers in 596 PA last year (1 homer every 37.3 PA), and this year he has 15 homers in 203 PA (1 homer every 13.5 PA).

It doesn't matter what I think. I don't get paid $5M? $8M? to make these decisions. The bottom line is that these guys have all performed at a high level this season after Bloom decided to let them walk. JDM's OPS is nearly 200 points higher than Turner's. And he is making $5M less.

Since this discussion (on June 8th):
J.D. Martinez: 111 PA, .208/.270/.436 | 86 wRC+
Justin Turner: 114 PA, .346/.395/.577 | 164 wRC+

2023 season:
Martinez: .252/.298/.560 | 124 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR
Turner: .287/.359/.462 | 124 wRC+ | 1.5 fWAR

 

[BaseballJones]

Since this discussion (on June 8th):
J.D. Martinez: 111 PA, .208/.270/.436 | 86 wRC+
Justin Turner: 114 PA, .346/.395/.577 | 164 wRC+

2023 season:
Martinez: .252/.298/.560 | 124 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR
Turner: .287/.359/.462 | 124 wRC+ | 1.5 fWAR

Haha nice!

 

[tims4wins]

Since this discussion (on June 8th):
J.D. Martinez: 111 PA, .208/.270/.436 | 86 wRC+
Justin Turner: 114 PA, .346/.395/.577 | 164 wRC+

2023 season:
Martinez: .252/.298/.560 | 124 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR
Turner: .287/.359/.462 | 124 wRC+ | 1.5 fWAR

Glad to be of service.

 

[Van Everyman]

My thoughts...



I think the idea is to avoid big long term commitments to non-cornerstone players until there is enough cost controlled talent to really make a run at things. This is a tax reset year & I expect them to be comfortable going pretty far over the tax line next season.



Mookie they had to trade because the team would have been hugely expensive & they would have been at a large competitive disadvantage as a result in terms of IFA $, draft picks being moved down, etc., & paying a ton of money for a mediocre team because they had no cheap talent in the pipeline for about 3 more years. & they made him large offers & did not think they could sign him. So they got what they could for 1 season of him (& $48m of Price).

X is 4 years older than Devers & plays a position they expect Marcelo Mayer to take over. Which would mean X could slide down to 3B... but then what would you do with Devers? Devers is signed until he is 37, X until he's 42. Devers deal is much more likely to pay off than X's.

It's just a matter of value & timing, not some organizational mandate against long-term contracts.



I think in the Boston media market, the team is expected to at least try every year so they tried to thread the needle, acquiring potentially valuable prospects in Valdez/Abreu/Rosier, potential short term help in Pham/Hosmer, & a short & long-term catching option in McGuire who out-performed the only real player they gave up to get these things - Vazquez.

The other things they had that they didn't trade weren't really valuable. They could have gotten under the tax by salary dumping JD (who was in the midst of an awful slump), but Wacha & Eovaldi were injured & they wouldn't really have gotten much of anything talent-wise & it would have been purely financially motivated, which they would have gotten killed for. It also seems clear they planned to be under the tax for '23, so the 20% playoff chances or whatever it was, was more valuable to them then the slight increase in draft capital they would have gotten from losing X/Eo after QOs.



No. They knew they weren't ready yet as they still didn't have enough cost-controlled talent so they continued to keep trying to build around the edges & dumpster dive while not interfering with their window, which opens next year now that they have bad contracts off the books & a healthy amount of cost-controlled talent.

The complacent thing to do is to think you don't need to be patient anymore & overvalue the quality of your team & go all in before it would be prudent to.



Because most of the 2018 core currently sucks & makes a ton of $. It was a hugely unsustainable as a long-term strategy.

DD decimated the farm system to get really good players but the problem is he didn't replenish the system. There was a gap of about 3 or 4 years where nothing of significance came through. That's partially on DD & partially on Cherington, but that whole aspect of the organization was neglected & it's the most significant factor in building a sustainable successful franchise. DD has proven that he does not have the aptitude for it.



Idk & idrc.



I think the plan in place is the only sustainable model, & as I've said for a while I expect them to start a really long string of playoff appearances starting no later than '24.

There is a clear model right now that leads to sustainable success, & the Red Sox are now lined up to begin that type of run.

Dodgers - 10 straight years
Astros - 6 years
Yankees - 6 years
Braves - 5 years
Rays - 4 years
Cards - 4 years

BTW a belated thanks for this response -- great answers.

If your theory is correct, I suspect we will see a similar deadline this year -- a bit more dumpster diving, poss. moving overvalued vets (Duvall and Kike, if you can call him overvalued) but nothing that really interferes with their window opening next year. And perhaps fewer pitchforks out for Chaim given the direction the team appears to be headed in.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

BTW a belated thanks for this response -- great answers.

If your theory is correct, I suspect we will see a similar deadline this year -- a bit more dumpster diving, poss. moving overvalued vets (Duvall and Kike, if you can call him overvalued) but nothing that really interferes with their window opening next year. And perhaps fewer pitchforks out for Chaim given the direction the team appears to be headed in.

Considering the Red Sox have just played their 100th game, and things are a little bit more in focus, would anyone change their vote from earlier in the year? Maybe it would be better to ask this question after the trade deadline. I assume most of the Bloomers are happy with the progress of the team this year. What do the Anti Bloomers such as @John Marzano Olympic Hero think? Suppose the Red Sox finish with 88 wins but still finish in last place. Would you count that as a last place funish even if they have a winning record? How about 90 wins and a last place finish?

 

[joe dokes]

Considering the Red Sox have just played their 100th game, and things are a little bit more in focus, would anyone change their vote from earlier in the year? Maybe it would be better to ask this question after the trade deadline. I assume most of the Bloomers are happy with the progress of the team this year. What do the Anti Bloomers such as @John Marzano Olympic Hero think? Suppose the Red Sox finish with 88 wins but still finish in last place. Would you count that as a last place funish even if they have a winning record? How about 90 wins and a last place finish?

90 wins (or 99 wins) and last place is still a last-place finish. Using that particular last-place finish as a criticism without any other context is a different matter.

 

[BaseballJones]

Since this discussion (on June 8th):
J.D. Martinez: 111 PA, .208/.270/.436 | 86 wRC+
Justin Turner: 114 PA, .346/.395/.577 | 164 wRC+

2023 season:
Martinez: .252/.298/.560 | 124 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR
Turner: .287/.359/.462 | 124 wRC+ | 1.5 fWAR

To update this:

Since June 8:
Martinez: 34 g, 9 hr, 30 rbi, .246/.313/.485/.798
Turner: 37 g, 9 hr, 38 rbi, .326/.375/.590/.965

Season:
Martinez: 24 hr, 73 rbi, .263/.313/.568/.881, 130 ops+, 1.3 bWAR, $10m
Turner: 16 hr, 64 rbi, .286/.355/.480/.835, 122 ops+, 1.7 bWAR, $8.3m

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

What do the Anti Bloomers such as @John Marzano Olympic Hero think? Suppose the Red Sox finish with 88 wins but still finish in last place. Would you count that as a last place funish even if they have a winning record? How about 90 wins and a last place finish?

Yes to both. Last place is last place is last place. So you're valedictorian of summer school. Awesome.

Bloom's job is to not to just accurately evaluate the Boston Red Sox and its minor league system but to evaluate the entire league and in particular the division the team plays in. If he though that one of those teams were going to suck and he got it wrong, and that the Sox could squeak by and get into the playoffs, than that's a failing on him. You always want to explore all avenues to build the strongest team that you can. That allows you can to have your destiny in your hands and not rely on someone else screwing up or a lot of if/then questions that the Sox were looking at in the spring.

EDIT: as far as context goes in 1991 every team in the AL West had a 500 record or better--I believe that's the only time that happened in the old seven teams per division AL format. The Angels finished at 81-81. They would've finished fifth in the AL East, third in the NL East and fourth in the NL West. Were they the best last place finisher ever? Probably. I don't know. I doesn't matter because they finished last. That's really the only context you need. Could the Sox be the best last place team in MLB history if they finish with 90 wins? I guess. Maybe the Colts will let us know who their banner guy is and we can have a nice celebration next year.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I was certainly a skeptic of Bloom’s coming into the year and felt that we would learn a ton about the system this year, and we have, and it’s pretty much all been good! I, for one, feel much better about the direction of the organization than I did just a few months ago. Players are developing across the board, and he’s nailed a lot of roster moves this year in a pretty challenging environment. I don’t think there’s much pressure on him this deadline, the team seems to be in pretty good shape regardless of what they do, I think.