Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016
- Thread starter wutang112878
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I take everything back if that's the case, but he played all but 4 games (in December) the previous season, did something happen to him in the 6 weeks between the Sixers' last game and the draft? In hs frist year in New Orleans he didn't miss a game until January, when he got hurt and apparently never fully recovered.
A la McHale Holiday had a stress fracture in his foot and Philly let him play through it rather than sitting him. They also hid the injury from the Pelicans when they submitted the medicals to them prior to the trade and the Pelicans didn't give him a complete physical themselves. The Sixers should have been docked an unprotected #1 for it rather than the the #2 they actually were.
Suffice to say, I don't think as highly of Holiday as you do. We've actually seen a fair number of point guards traded lately (Thomas, Dragic, Knight, MCW). I'd rank Jrue as the #4 guy in that group (ahead of MCW).
The #6 pick in almost any draft is a high price to pay by itself, before adding in another pick a year later. That's something you give up for an impact player maybe (not necessarily all-star level), but for Jrue Holiday?
I get your point about Dragic, etc, being traded for less, and it's a good one. But maybe that's a function of how little people thought of the 2013 draft, that the #6 pick just wan't very valuable? Without cherry picking one of the few guys who look good in hindsight, how likely is it that they would have gotten a player better than Holiday at that spot?
I don't know how to answer that really, because of the "weak draft" narrative. The 15 players taken in the 5-7 spots over the last five years have been Exum, Smart, Randle, Len, Noel, McLemore, Robinson, Lillard, Barnes, Valanciunas, Vesely, Biyombo, Cousins, Udoh, and Monroe. I've bolded the ones I'd rather have than Jrue in that group, so it's more than 50/50 in that setting. Plus there's the other pick, plus the fact that they were getting Jrue just in time to pay him...
EDIT: Swapped out 2015 for 2010, since all the 2015 guys are still ??? at this point.
EDIT: Swapped out 2015 for 2010, since all the 2015 guys are still ??? at this point.
So they should have kept the 6th pick in 2013 and drafted Damian Lillard?
All that matters is the 2013 draft. Which was thought to suck at the time, and that opinion has more or less been validated. They weren't going to do better than Holiday (most likely).
I don't really know how to answer your question then: you don't want to look at the player actually drafted (Noel), and you don't want to cherrypick other good players taken after Noel...
Holiday really did look light on his feet and creative with the basketball before his injury hobbled him. I think moondog's interpretation of New Orleans' evaluation -- that the likelihood of landing a difference-maker at #6 in that pitiful draft was poor -- is quite defensible.
It's a very simple question that you keep avoiding: of the payers available to them in 2013 (and only 2013, other drafts don't count), how likely is it that they would have selected a player better than what a non-injured Jrue Holiday would have given them? This is not hindsight or an after-the-fact narrative. Everyone thought the draft sucked. And they were right.
I will acknowledge that if what nightbob says about them erring by not knowing Holiday's history, they screwed up and that changes things. But un-injured Holiday, I'll take him over Noel any day, both from a 2013 perspective and today.
I will acknowledge that if what nightbob says about them erring by not knowing Holiday's history, they screwed up and that changes things. But un-injured Holiday, I'll take him over Noel any day, both from a 2013 perspective and today.
I don't know how anyone can defend that trade. Getting Noel and a 1st for Holiday was a coup. Noel has flaws but he's probably a better asset right now than Holiday alone, and on top of it they got the #10 pick in a better draft.
Edit- and from the opposite side, nothing indicated Holiday was the kind of player you give up what might be 2 top 10 picks for. It was the kind of silly shortsighted trade that bad GMs make, get slightly better short term, and underestimate how good you are so the future pick ends up more valuable than you projected.
Edit- and from the opposite side, nothing indicated Holiday was the kind of player you give up what might be 2 top 10 picks for. It was the kind of silly shortsighted trade that bad GMs make, get slightly better short term, and underestimate how good you are so the future pick ends up more valuable than you projected.
How is this a simple question? How am I supposed to know who they'd have picked? I suggested looking at other drafts to get a baseline of what talent is available at 6, but that's apparently a no-go. So please, explain what approach you think works? The players actually taken at 6 is certainly a much better asset, so does that help?
Looking at other drafts completely hides the fact that this draft was considerably weaker which again, is not just a hindsight opinion. Not all 6th picks are equal. They didn't have the 6th pick in an average draft. They had the 6th pick in the 2013 draft, and only that draft. So, to assess who they might have picked, I'll look at the players selected 6th and shortly afterward (again, in that draft only) and say that it's not that impressive a group. I don't know who they would have picked, but it's not likely it would have been a keeper.
Okay, sure, of the 10 players taken at 6 or later, I'd rather have Noel, McCollum, Adams, Olynyk, and Giannis, with Pope as a tossup. So that's 5 yes, 4 no, 1 maybe for me. Plus, I get them on rookie deals, and also have another draft pick the next year.
Anyone defending this trade is either 1) an oddly big fan of Jrue Holiday; or 2) overthinking it.
Anyone defending this trade is either 1) an oddly big fan of Jrue Holiday; or 2) overthinking it.
Really? Again, hindsight doesn't count, for any of these guys. I think 2013 Holiday was a better bet than all of them, and had Jrue stayed healthy, the only one who might have more value today is Greek Freak. But enough hijacking of the thread, we can agree to disagree.
Is Ingram officially our #2 target? I confess I haven't watched much college ball this year but have checked enough box scores to see that Skal has been a disappointment. Ingram's another freaky skinny freshman.
He is gonna take some time to develop but man is he skilled and athletic. Duke has never really had a player like him that I can compare him to. I think his floor is Tayshaun Prince
Noel has regressed because he's a 5 and he's playing as a 4. IT's a fit thing. He's still the same player. Exceptional defensively, a true small ball big defensively, protect the rim, and the block and defend out to the perimeter. His hands are bad and he's more of a dunk at the rim than anything else, but he can play pick and roll I think.
He's one of the better defensive players today - in his second season, and part of the regression is also injuries.
Meanwhile Saric is rated as the best overseas player by GMs, shooting 500 on 3s this season and nearly .900 FT when shooting was his biggest concern. I think you're smoking crack if you think that was a good trade for NO.
I wouldn't even consider trading EITHER for Holiday today even ignoring the money difference, let alone both. I can't even imagine a good argument.
He's one of the better defensive players today - in his second season, and part of the regression is also injuries.
Meanwhile Saric is rated as the best overseas player by GMs, shooting 500 on 3s this season and nearly .900 FT when shooting was his biggest concern. I think you're smoking crack if you think that was a good trade for NO.
I wouldn't even consider trading EITHER for Holiday today even ignoring the money difference, let alone both. I can't even imagine a good argument.
I don't want to wade in too far but one thing that I'd argue is definitely not hindsight is that in 2013 point guard was probably the least scarce position in the league. It came up all the time while discussing potential Rondo trade destinations. How much better was Holiday than, say, Darren Collison who signed a deal for $1.9 mil a week after the draft? From a value standpoint that trade was a nightmare.
I'm not going to say anything beyond this post because we'd just better off calling this the Pelicans thread, but I do want to summarize:
-Obviously, this has worked out poorly for New Orleans. Of course you wouldn't trade Holiday for either one today. But...
-Holiday was a pretty good player (not a star) and had been reasonably durable (played 78 games the season before the trade). It has since come out that the Sixers knew about a stress fracture but didn't disclose it, in fact they were fined 3 million dollars because of it. Now, the Pelicans did their own physical -- should they have caught it themselves? Maybe? I don't know how extensive your typical physical is, would they normally capture a small stress fracture?
-The 2013 draft stunk. I'm not talking about hindsight, I'm talking about the day of the draft. The Cavs tried to trade down out of #1 but found no takers. Here's one quote from Adrian Wojnarowski:
This is from a Kevin Pelton piece on ESPN previewing the draft:
It's reasonable to think the Pelicans looked at the draft board and decided there was nobody they could get who projected better than Holiday. The guy who did go at 6 -- Noel -- had big injury issues.
-Of course, they also gave up their 2014 1st round pick, which ended up 10th overall. But that was close to a worst case scenario. Holiday got hurt and played 34 games, Ryan Anderson (who was coming off something of a breakout year) also got hurt played 22. With Anderson and Holiday in the lineup, they were 12-10, with a point differential of +1.4. Otherwise they were 22-38. They've both been dogged by injuries ever since. Could they have made the playoffs without the injuries? It would have been hard. Dallas was the 8th seed that year and won 49 games. But the previous year 45 games was good enough for the 8th seed -- I think 45 wins for the team they assembled was a challenging one, but attainable. But certainly they had reason to think they pick would not be as high as 10. So I don't know. At the time I could see this deal from both sides. Draft picks made sense for Philly, but the truth is they work out a lot less then people realize, and the particular crop they had to select from was widely viewed as worse than normal. And New Orleans did have a sense of urgency with getting Anthony Davis to sign an extension, he wasn't likely to do so if thought it would be a Sixers-like rebuild. We'll never know, but I'd love to have seen what would have happened with better health for them.
Pretty good day for the draft picks.
DAL loses,
BRK loses
NOP win.
MIN didn't play, but I already gave up on getting that as a first.
4, 13, 18, 31, 35, 45, 55, 58
DAL loses,
BRK loses
NOP win.
MIN didn't play, but I already gave up on getting that as a first.
4, 13, 18, 31, 35, 45, 55, 58
Are there any scenarios coming up with teams who look out to possibly trade down to those mid/low Boston 1st rounders for another (or a few) 2nd rounder(s)??
Example: Would a team like Washington trade their (currently) 10th pick to Boston (currently 13 or the No.18?) for another 2nd rounder (or more)?
They have one of the oldest rosters (Spurs, Mavs, Clips, Cavs, Heat, Grizzlies, then Wizards), are the oldest non-playoff team (for now) and have only one pick (give their 2nd rounder to ATL). Probably I miss something or think too superficial, but I wonder how many picks does Boston need/would give up and if Washington would trade down a bit.
Yes, it´s early and until the final standings and Picks are announced it will turn upside down, I wonder if this is realistic, like those trades happening in the NHL with way more picks per team to offer,basically..
Example: Would a team like Washington trade their (currently) 10th pick to Boston (currently 13 or the No.18?) for another 2nd rounder (or more)?
They have one of the oldest rosters (Spurs, Mavs, Clips, Cavs, Heat, Grizzlies, then Wizards), are the oldest non-playoff team (for now) and have only one pick (give their 2nd rounder to ATL). Probably I miss something or think too superficial, but I wonder how many picks does Boston need/would give up and if Washington would trade down a bit.
Yes, it´s early and until the final standings and Picks are announced it will turn upside down, I wonder if this is realistic, like those trades happening in the NHL with way more picks per team to offer,basically..
Is it bad when an already terrible team doesn't listen to or trust its coach or understand basic situational basketball?
What does this even mean? Hot chick in the stands?
Saturday morning tankathon report:
http://www.tankathon.com/
Boston's picks:
4,
13 (up 8, BOS in lottery),
18,
31,
37 (down 1),
45,
52,
58
http://www.tankathon.com/
Boston's picks:
4,
13 (up 8, BOS in lottery),
18,
31,
37 (down 1),
45,
52,
58
Just as it was on the camp circuit this summer it looks like it's Simmons, Dunn.......and a whole lotta blah. Labissiere looks like a complete fraud and Bender from Maccabi is no Godzingis not even close. Aside from the Top-2 and I mentioned this the other day either here or CelticsNuts I forget which.....I think Ainge is going to recognize the value of the seniors/NBA-ready players in this draft as opposed to those with high-end upside. The older players will be on ridiculously cheap contracts under the new salary cap increase while the high-end guys are cheap while they suck then you have to decide whether to pay them or not based on potential which not being able to take advantage of any rookie contract production. That has never been Ainge's M.O.
The two guys I'm looking at specifically as Ainge targets are Poeltl in the lottery, Caris LeVert as his vertatile wing in the Evan Turner mold with a later pick. I don't particularly love either guy but man, early on this draft class appears to be the polar opposite of last years beast of a class especially at the top.
The two guys I'm looking at specifically as Ainge targets are Poeltl in the lottery, Caris LeVert as his vertatile wing in the Evan Turner mold with a later pick. I don't particularly love either guy but man, early on this draft class appears to be the polar opposite of last years beast of a class especially at the top.
Well it is a valuable skillset to have on your roster and with versatility becoming more prevalent a guy like LeVert should be able to step in and play in this league. If your pick in the 20's turns out to be a rotation player that's a win......as I mentioned above when this player is on a cheap rookie deal that is tremendous value as this player will be typically making close to $10m per under the new cap (assuming an MLE type).
I don't think much of Evan Turner's skillset, or the value of his "versatility" (can play poorly at so many positions!). But that's neither here nor there really. I'd rather the Celtics target longshots rather than good rotation values with their backend picks. This is related to the "roster crunch" issue.
In a league transitioning to wing slashers and perimeter shooters this skill set is critical and one that most all teams are looking to fill in their rotation. I stated why I feel Ainge will go the senior route as he's done in the past although I'm with you on taking fliers late.....this really isn't how Ainge has operated in the past however and now there is a GREATER benefit to go old in the draft. A guy like Turner is a $8-9m player under the new cap when you "could" get that production on a cheap rookie deal if the kid is ready to play right away. It's a huge value play.
Half of the rotation are free agents next summer......this team will look much different next year. There is no roster crunch when a stiff like Jerebko and Zeller, two guys who lost their rotation minutes in prior stops, aren't playing.....it's all media driven theatrics. Crappy players on the end of benches occur throughout the league.
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Way too early to say this is a two player draft, HRB. For one, Murray looks like a stud. He's a year younger than most of the rest of the freshman class, played at a really high level in international competitions, and is clearly Kentucky's best player. I've heard the Brandon Roy comps (but with healthy knees), and they seem fair. Murray has the chance to be a really, really good player at the next level. Ingram obviously isn't there yet and he's stick-figure thin, but he has natural scoring ability. He's a projection, but he flashes enough plays where you can legitimately dream on him. He does some Paul George things at both ends of the court; he just doesn't do them consistently enough. The good news (from a prospect standpoint) is he's getting better as the season goes on.
Agreed on Skal; he's atrocious. He's so soft and passive. I don't trust bigs who can't rebound in traffic. He just wants to float around like a 2015 version of Brad Sellers.
Agreed on Skal; he's atrocious. He's so soft and passive. I don't trust bigs who can't rebound in traffic. He just wants to float around like a 2015 version of Brad Sellers.
Not only did Brooklyn reclaim the 3rd slot from NO, they are now a full 3 games behind the 5th slot - some nice wiggle room there.
They're right back at it tonight against Chicago.
Wednesday morning tankathon report:
http://www.tankathon.com/
Boston's picks:
3 (up 1),
13,
18,
31,
38 (down 1),
45,
53 (down 1),
58
http://www.tankathon.com/
Boston's picks:
3 (up 1),
13,
18,
31,
38 (down 1),
45,
53 (down 1),
58
Yes. This year gives us the anticipatory fun of tanking and getting a good draft pick, but without the suffering through brutal loss after depressing loss to get there. This could be addicting, so it's a good thing the Celtics have the Nets picks for the next few years as well.
Totally forgot about that pick. Could be huge as this team is hopefully reaching contender status in 3-4 years.
Assuming Memphis makes the playoffs this year, they will owe Denver their 1st next year (if they avoid the bottom 5). That means the Celtics could get their pick in 2019 (top 8 protected) or 2020 (top 6 protected) or 2021 (unprotected): http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
Hard to get too excited since it is at least 3+ years out, but another good chit for Danny and a pick that should slot in nicely after the last of the Nets 1st rounders (in 2018).
Aside from the Nets the sleeper here could be the unraveling of the Mavericks with Deron and Felton leading that "surge."
It would be highly unlikely for Dallas to finish with one of the 7 worst records in the league with 9 teams and 4 full games separating them from that spot. That slot currently projects a 32-50 record meaning Dallas would need to go 17-37 the rest of the way to get to that level.
Things were looking bad for the Nets pick for a while there, but now they've got a full 2 game cushion for the 3rd worst record, and their schedule for the rest of December and January looks really tough.
I think PHL-LAL-BRK looks like it will hold. It would be nice if the nets could swap with the Lakers, but it doesn't seem likely.
the biggest movement is going to be in Minnesota can get to pick 13. Obviously it would also be nice if Dallas dropped to 8-10.
the biggest movement is going to be in Minnesota can get to pick 13. Obviously it would also be nice if Dallas dropped to 8-10.
And they finish the season with something like 18 of 26 on the road beginning with a 9 game West to East swing in late February.