Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016
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Well, I suppose they could empty the roster and be Jimmy Butler and the D League All Stars, and the proper response in that situation is to say "OK, LA, you can have him, we're on to other guys."
I'd guess LAL would love to sign hometown kid Derozan and hang onto the pick. Obviously the timing there is a little wonky with the draft coming first.
And that may be all they have if they don't win the lottery. I think that they're a lot more likely to go hunting in the bargain bin (Carmelo) and/or chasing after hometown star DeMar DeRozan.
Okay. Point being, if they trade for Jimmy Butler they have a really clear, obvious path to not just being Jimmy Butler and a bunch of D-League guys.
Unless they can miraculously produce a bunch of players after emptying the store for Butler, I'm not sure that Butler and the D-League All Stars is enough to get them the free agents they'll need. Especially in a cap environment where everyone has space and young players increasingly don't give a shit about the past. Being the Lakers hasn't been enough for them in years.
This summer there will be good teams with cap space. Hell, even the Warriors and Spurs can produce cap space to sign guys. If you want to play in a winning environment, where are you going? This is why I fully expect them to go bargain hunting and chasing after the hometown hero to reload (and if the Raptors don't max out Stripper Tits I can tell you that the Lakers are prepared to give him three years with an opt out next summer, and probably willing to do a sign & trade to get him even more money).
This summer there will be good teams with cap space. Hell, even the Warriors and Spurs can produce cap space to sign guys. If you want to play in a winning environment, where are you going? This is why I fully expect them to go bargain hunting and chasing after the hometown hero to reload (and if the Raptors don't max out Stripper Tits I can tell you that the Lakers are prepared to give him three years with an opt out next summer, and probably willing to do a sign & trade to get him even more money).
We have two guards that play Butler's position who would become expendable in Bradley and Smart. We also have other picks to sweeten the deal. If Butler is the target we should be able to put together the best offer.
The worse Horford plays in this series the better the chance they let someone else overpay him.
1) Al Horford as a free agent.
2) Jimmy Butler for Brooklyn's top 5 pick and Marcus Smart.
3) ? for another Celtics guard and Brooklyn's first round 2017 (swap) and 2018 picks.
Am I misstating that? Do people feel that we don't need a third star? Or that Isaiah Thomas is the third star?
2) Jimmy Butler for Brooklyn's top 5 pick and Marcus Smart.
3) ? for another Celtics guard and Brooklyn's first round 2017 (swap) and 2018 picks.
Am I misstating that? Do people feel that we don't need a third star? Or that Isaiah Thomas is the third star?
If we go into next season with Thomas as our 4th best player, I'm building Ainge a statue.
Well, Horford wouldn't count as one of the top three. Thomas is much more valuable.
It would make more sense to ship Bradley instead of Smart since the Bulls would need a starting 2 and we would prefer to have Smart to defend 3's in a smallball lineup with Turner gone. The $6m salary difference would help us too as we'd be taking on a ton of money.
Horford doesn't rely on his athleticism and has developed a 3-point shot so he should age really well as far as being a quality big during the length of his next contract. It's a huge overpay but also a huge upgrade over our Amir/Sully duo.
We were always locked in at #16 for the Dallas pick.
We are locked in at #23 for our own pick.
Very interesting. I remember you said something in a previous post that you had a source who said that the infamous trade offer that Ainge revealed the day after the trade deadline was not for Jahlil Okafor like some speculated.
Is this info from another trusted source or is this more of a gut feeling?
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I'm not sure about bowiac's sources, but it was reported in several places that Ainge made lowball offers at the trading deadline for both Butler and Kevin Love. The Okafor deal wouldn't make sense until the two teams' draft slots are known.
I don't remember the story saying it was a lowball. I thought the deal was close and Bulls pulled out at the end.
I remember something in between what you two remember. I believe the source was KC Johnson and he said that the Bulls and Celtics were talking for a while but the Bulls pulled out when Ainge refused to include Crowder in any trade.
And Sprowl, I am not sure I remember anything about a low ball Kevin Love offer. I thought it was that Zach Lowe, on his podcast, said that he thought Ainge was talking about Love in the aforementioned interview. And someone else, I believe Steve Bullpet, had said that Ainge wasn't interested in trading any Brooklyn picks for Love so that the talks never went anywhere
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I had some inside info from a Boston sports reporter that matched up with what bowiac has posted and we PM'd to confirm stories. Butler was one of the targets and one I also expect to be revisited on draft day.
The lowball offer was reportedly for Love (saw that on RealGM). I didn't see that we lowballed an offer for Butler, although since a deal didn't get made maybe the Bulls thought so
The lowball offer was reportedly for Love (saw that on RealGM). I didn't see that we lowballed an offer for Butler, although since a deal didn't get made maybe the Bulls thought so
The comment I remember was that Ainge's offer for Butler included no starters and no Brooklyn picks, and that the Bulls considered it a lowball offer.
Here is the exact quote from DA: "I can’t tell you the team or the name, but it was very close,” Ainge said. “It was something we had been deliberating on for two days straight. We were wrapping ourselves around a big package to do a deal, and at the very last minute … they did not want to do it, they backed out."
http://nesn.com/2016/02/danny-ainge-celtics-were-very-close-to-making-trade-other-team-backed-out/
http://nesn.com/2016/02/danny-ainge-celtics-were-very-close-to-making-trade-other-team-backed-out/
I am trying to think of what would be a good package to get Butler. All of our picks in this draft and Bradley? Seems to me like we'd need to add more but I am not sure of what we can give up that would move the needle. (I don't think Ainge wants to trade Crowder, Smart or IT) Would next years 1st rounder have to be included as well?
It really depends on where they're drafting and what other teams have to bid. LA might not even have a first round pick, and I don't think the Laker Youth are good enough to carry a package on their own. For all practical purposes I suspect that the competition is Philadelphia and Minnesota. They're really the competition here, and if Thibs wants him enough, I suspect that a package of Wiggins/Levine/2016 #1/2018 #1 is tough to beat (I mean Wiggins is a streaky shooter, but so's Butler).
If Boston manages a top 2 pick, though, the calculus changes. And more precisely I think whoever ends up with the right to draft Ingram wins this going away. If Minnesota wins Wiggins/Ingram is an impossible to top package. If Philly ends up #1 then Okafor/Ingram is tough to top.
You think Jimmy Butler nets Andrew Wiggins, LeVine and two number ones? There's no way Minnesota even entertains that at this point.
One of the local Minnesota beat writers was talking about Thibodeau possible acquiring Butler now that he's the Wolves coach and he stated that the package would have to be Wiggins, the 2016 #1 and other stuff for Chicago to even consider a deal. Not sure how credible that writer is, but it tells you what people think Butler can net in a trade.
My post this time was a gut feeling.
In the post you reference, there was a potential deal at the deadline where the Celtics offered the Brooklyn pick for Butler, and thought the deal was done, but the Bulls changed their minds at the last minute. (At the time, I didn't name Butler, just said it wasn't Okafor). I have no new info concerning Butler since then, but I believe the underlying dynamics are the same: the Bulls are shopping Butler; the Celtics want Butler; the Celtics probably don't want to wait 4-5 years for another rookie to develop. I'm just taking a guess that they'll find a way to close the gap in the offseason.
Ok, regarding your gut feeling now. If they land the #2 pick are they trading it immediately or waiting to see who goes #1, since there's not the expected consensus on Simmons anymore?
That's pretty far from anything I have a good read on. To be honest, I had not really given the Ingram stuff that much credibility, but I suppose if the Sixers won the lottery, and the Celtics wanted Simmons, they might wait in case the Sixers didn't want to draft yet another big who can't shoot?
Very interesting. It sounds like my idea of all the picks this year and Avery Bradley for Butler is a pretty good starting point (maybe take out Bradley if they can trade up to the 10th or 11th spot)
obviously, would trade this whole draft (plus bradley, rozier & hunter) for butler. would keep smart if possible - he'd be a college senior this year and is already an OK nba rotation player. he's still got a chance to be really good.
OTOH, if no butler deal & the C's got the #1 overall pick & assuming that mgmt views Simmons & Ingram as neck-and-neck, who helps the Cs more over the next 1-2 years? Ingram for his shooting (sorely lacking from the wings this year) or Simmons for his playmaking (assuming we lose Evan Turner)?
OTOH, if no butler deal & the C's got the #1 overall pick & assuming that mgmt views Simmons & Ingram as neck-and-neck, who helps the Cs more over the next 1-2 years? Ingram for his shooting (sorely lacking from the wings this year) or Simmons for his playmaking (assuming we lose Evan Turner)?
Ingram's 68% FT percentage is a red flag for me if I'm expecting him to be a good shooter right off the bat. They're different skillsets, but they're related.
Not as easy as a straight-up trade for Butler, but now that they're headed for yet another early exit, maybe the Clips seriously explore trading Griffin for another key piece (Butler or Gallinari who they were rumored to be interested in) & Cs can get involved in a 3-way.
I think the Clips will look at trading Griffin, but that the market's going to be tough with so much uncertainty surrounding his health and the knowledge that his entire game is predicated on athleticism. His value would probably be higher if he hadn't tried to come back this season, as odd as that seems.
As Nate Duncan pointed out on a recent pod, the Clips face a conundrum in that one on the hand Griffin is at the nadir of his value right now but on the other it is reasonably likely that his value continues to decline as he ages and gets closer to free agency
Is 68% really that bad for a college freshman though? He should easily improve into the mid-70's.
My concern with him extending his range is that he has shown little or no inclination to take face-up jumpers in the games I've seen. Someone like say Al Horford, who shot his FT's at 58% as a college freshman always showed a willingness to take mid-range face up jumpers and in time extended his range beyond the 3-point mark. To me it seems like Simmons doesn't yet have that mid-range foundation to build off.
That could easily be a product of coaching, though. Particularly since he plays for Duke.
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Wait I'm confused. I thought bowiac was referring to Simmons shooting. Ingram is already a lights out 3-point shooter why would we be concerned about him?
Bowiac was talking about Ingram, not Simmons. And IIRC, college FT% correlates pretty decently to NBA 3P%, so Ingram's lackluster performance there would warrant a red flag.
Right.....as far as the player developing accurate NBA 3-point range like a Simmons. Ingram already has the 3-point shot with NBA range so what he does at the FT line isn't relevant to a skill which he already possesses. Even if it is 68% isn't bad at all for a freshman big it's actually pretty decent. I honestly thought this was about Simmons which would make sense.
Make it happen,
http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/Jimmy-Butler-Mark-Wahlberg-Talk-Unlikely-Friendship-365643451.html
If you're confident Ingram is already a good NBA three-point shooter, then I agree it's not salient. It just wasn't (and still isn't) clear to me that he does have that kind of range. By itself, shooting 41% from three in college doesn't mean all that much, which is why most NCAA projection models also look at FT%. I don't watch much college basketball outside of Michigan, so take it with a grain of salt of course.