Your New Look Celtics

[ifmanis5]

Danny re-shakes the snow globe and the Celtics now have a core of Irving-Horford-Hayward which is an upgrade over last year and probably the best of the East.
The trade opens up more time and touches for Smart, Brown and Tatum as well.

New depth chart (although positions on this team are very fluid):

PG
Irving
Smart
Rozier
Allen

SG
Brown
Bird
Nader

SF
Hayward
Tatum
Ojeleye

PF
Morris
Yabusele

C
Horford
Baynes

The BKN pick will be missed but this is a more talented team than last year.

 

[ifmanis5]

The ESPN instant reaction seems to be still Cavs in 6 in the ECF.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Obviously the starting five is going to be a juggernaut, but I'm a little concerned about the bench. Pretty much the entire bench is made up of young unknowns. I understand that part of that is by design because some of these guys are part of the future and need minutes but it's a little concerning for a bench to be that inexperienced on a team with aspirations to make the Finals.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The ESPN instant reaction seems to be still Cavs in 6 in the ECF.

Probably. Cavs still terrific, but maybe only 1 year on that team. Celtics have only two guys 30+ on the roster, and Horford is the only key player over 27. This is a team well positioned to be the class of the East for 3-5 years.

 

[ifmanis5]

Updated NBA championship odds after the trade:
Boston 10-1
Cleveland 4-1

 

[DJnVa]

Updated NBA championship odds after the trade:
Boston 10-1
Cleveland 4-1

What were they prior?

 

[the1andonly3003]

I thought Shane Larkin signed. Did that fall apart?

 

[DJnVa]

I thought Shane Larkin signed. Did that fall apart?

He's still here. Missing Theis too.

Celtics currently have 16 under contract.

 

[Marbleheader]

I think there's still some dominos to fall before the roster is set. Have tickets to opening night at the Garden. Should be entertaining.

 

[ifmanis5]

What were they prior?

Opened:
Boston 15-1
Cleveland 5-2

As a reference, Golden State is the favorite and they opened 5-8 and are now 5-11.

 

[Cellar-Door]

He's still here. Missing Theis too.

Celtics currently have 16 under contract.

Yeah a more accurate list would be:
PG
Irving
Smart
Rozier
Larkin

SG
Brown
Nader

SF
Hayward
Tatum
Ojeleye

PF
Morris
Yabusele

C
Horford
Baynes
Theis

MAINE: Bird/Allen

They'll probably add one vet minimum
Best guys left on the market who could possibly take the minimum:
Shabazz Muhammad
Bogut
Gerald Green
Thomas Robinson
Tyler Zeller
Dante Cunningham
Tony Allen (I actually think he's cooked, but maybe they'd want him)
Boris Diaw
Tiago Splitter

 

[luckiestman]

Looking at the depth charts doesn't let me visualize much.

What's our best (end of game) lineup?

Clearly Flat Earth, Coach's Son, & Big Al will be out there. I figure Smart to be out there too. I'm thinking Morris unless we go big with Baynes and slide Al to 4.

If Brown takes a leap or Tatum is truly special, that changes things


This is going to be awesome

 

[luckiestman]

Who is going to benefit most from playing with Hayward and Irving? There are going to be a lot of wide open shots available. Will it be Morris? So much here to think about.

 

[Ale Xander]

Team looks pretty thin up front, especially with Horford allegedly not liking to play the 5 too much.

Unless of course they're planning to play small for 48 minutes, which I can live with (Brown and/or Tatum at the 4)

 

[chilidawg]

He's still here. Missing Theis too.

Celtics currently have 16 under contract.

16 includes Bird and Allen, correct? So 17 spaces, or 1 available space. I would think a big to replace Zizic would be the focus.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

16 includes Bird and Allen, correct? So 17 spaces, or 1 available space. I would think a big to replace Zizic would be the focus.

I am betting they will kick the tires on Bogut, Diaw or Ezeli.

 

[thehitcat]

Is Nerlens still out there and might he take the min to come home and play on a winner? He'd be ideal as a bench big shot blocker energy guy.

 

[luckiestman]

Is Nerlens still out there and might he take the min to come home and play on a winner? He'd be ideal as a bench big shot blocker energy guy.

1. We can't afford him

2. The Mavs can match

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is Nerlens still out there and might he take the min to come home and play on a winner? He'd be ideal as a bench big shot blocker energy guy.

Yeah as mentioned he's restricted. Right now his options come down to....
1. negotiate a long term deal with the Mavs with no leverage
2. Sign the tender and be unrestricted next year (when there is little money)

He got burned bad by not getting an offer quickly.

 

[thehitcat]

Too bad. He's pretty much perfect for the team we have now and I've always liked him. Thanks for responding.

 

[DJnVa]

With the news that IT will likely be delayed at start of season, Larkin was clearly insurance (which is what HRB said when he was signed and we pooh-poohed). Not sure he survives unless he blows them out of the water at camp.

 

[Auger34]

With the news that IT will likely be delayed at start of season, Larkin was clearly insurance (which is what HRB said when he was signed and we pooh-poohed). Not sure he survives unless he blows them out of the water at camp.

I don't think there's anyway that Larkin isn't on the roster at the start of the season. It's not good business to sign a guy from Europe, where he forgoes a bunch of money in the process, to cut him in training camp. Plus, I'm not sure this is really an issue at this point because the Celtics actually have an open roster spot currently.

My preference to fill the 17th spot would be Bogut or Gerald Green. I think I prefer Green because, according to reports, he was a great leader on last years team. I think that is important with the amount of young guys we have

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I'm glad Ainge prioritized getting bigger this offseason. The starting backcourt goes from 5'9" and 6'1" to 6'3" and 6'7" while replacing Crowder with the bigger Hayward and reducing the need for Smart to fill in at the 3 (and even the 4). Rozier is now (ignoring Larkin for the moment) our smallest guy at 6'1" but he's also our bounciest and has good length. Could probably use another guy with legit size for the front court with Zizic out the door but not so worried about that.

 

[Cellar-Door]

With the news that IT will likely be delayed at start of season, Larkin was clearly insurance (which is what HRB said when he was signed and we pooh-poohed). Not sure he survives unless he blows them out of the water at camp.

I think he at least breaks camp with the team, I don't see 2 guys I'd want to sign right now, I do think he's the guy most likely to be cut for a buyout player later in the year if there haven't been any trades to clear a space before then.

 

[JakeRae]

I'm glad Ainge prioritized getting bigger this offseason. The starting backcourt goes from 5'9" and 6'1" to 6'3" and 6'7" while replacing Crowder with the bigger Hayward and reducing the need for Smart to fill in at the 3 (and even the 4). Rozier is now (ignoring Larkin for the moment) our smallest guy at 6'1" but he's also our bounciest and has good length. Could probably use another guy with legit size for the front court with Zizic out the door but not so worried about that.

I don't think it's a safe assumption that Brown will start over Smart.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I don't think it's a safe assumption that Brown will start over Smart.

Far from a given of course. Stevens liked bringing Smart off the bench last year for some second-unit cohesiveness. I suspect that this year might see a lot of that as well, with so many new guys. But obviously we're speculating that this point.

 

[JakeRae]

Far from a given of course. Stevens liked bringing Smart off the bench last year for some second-unit cohesiveness. I suspect that this year might see a lot of that as well, with so many new guys. But obviously we're speculating that this point.

Smart was the 6th man a year ago. When Bradley was out, Smart stayed in his role and Brown started to disturb rotations as little as possible. That's a different issue from who starts in the first instance.

We have 3 guys who we consider pg who will likely combine for over 80 mpg. Smart is pretty clearly going to close games at the 2, and his defense is almost necessary to cover for Irving with Bradley and Crowder gone. He's also, quite simply, the better player.

Pretending that 1-5 positions actually matter, our roster looks far more balanced if we think of it as:

PG
Irving
Rozier
Larkin

SG
Smart
Brown
Nader

SF
Hayward
Tatum
Ojeleye

PF
Morris
Yabusele
Theis

C
Horford
Baynes
[FA]

It's also worth noting that, in keeping with Stevens general philosophy, the 2-4 positions are basically interchangeable. I'd expect Yabusele, Ojeleye, and Theis to be battling for the 10th man minutes and think Nader spends most of his time in Maine.

Someone like Bogut or Hibbert would look really nice as the final option, to provide some additional size and depth in case of injury, which we badly need with Zivic gone.

 

[BaseballJones]

Playing with numbers....

Irving: 26 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists
Hayward: 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4.5 assists
Horford: 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5 assists
Smart: 11 points, 4 rebounds, 4.5 assists
Morris: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Rozier: 4 points, 3 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Brown: 10 points, 4 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Baynes: 4 points, 5 rebounds, 0.5 assists
Tatum: 6 points, 3 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Rest: 7 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists

TOTAL: 112 points, 43.5 rebounds, 28 assists

I don't think these are unrealistic. Obviously, it assumes reasonable health, etc.

I'm expecting Irving to be a true alpha. I expect Hayward to be one of the best 2nd scorers in the league. Brad loves him, he's skilled, and they'll find ways to get him the ball. I also expect a pretty nice leap for Brown, even if it's as one of the top guys of the second unit. Horford and Morris and Baynes are what they are. Tatum I think will contribute. Rozier won't put up much statistically but he'll be a pain in the ass defensively (I mean that in a good way) and be fairly solid out there.

I don't know how Stevens is going to work the lineups but I'd like to see this:

Starters: Irving, Smart, Hayward, Morris, Horford
Second Unit: Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Baynes, and either Irving or Hayward

I'd like one of Irving or Hayward playing with the second unit to give them a go-to scorer and a veteran leader. They want to go small, they can have Irving and Rozier along with Brown, Tatum, and Baynes. They want to go a little bigger, have Rozier and Brown, along with Tatum, Hayward, and Baynes.

Obviously it won't be quite as seamless as this, but as a general plan I'd like to see this play out as such.

 

[djbayko]

Playing with numbers....

Irving: 26 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists
Hayward: 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4.5 assists
Horford: 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5 assists
Smart: 11 points, 4 rebounds, 4.5 assists
Morris: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Rozier: 4 points, 3 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Brown: 10 points, 4 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Baynes: 4 points, 5 rebounds, 0.5 assists
Tatum: 6 points, 3 rebounds, 1.5 assists
Rest: 7 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists

TOTAL: 112 points, 43.5 rebounds, 28 assists

I don't think these are unrealistic. Obviously, it assumes reasonable health, etc.

I'm expecting Irving to be a true alpha. I expect Hayward to be one of the best 2nd scorers in the league. Brad loves him, he's skilled, and they'll find ways to get him the ball. I also expect a pretty nice leap for Brown, even if it's as one of the top guys of the second unit. Horford and Morris and Baynes are what they are. Tatum I think will contribute. Rozier won't put up much statistically but he'll be a pain in the ass defensively (I mean that in a good way) and be fairly solid out there.

I don't know how Stevens is going to work the lineups but I'd like to see this:

Starters: Irving, Smart, Hayward, Morris, Horford
Second Unit: Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Baynes, and either Irving or Hayward

I'd like one of Irving or Hayward playing with the second unit to give them a go-to scorer and a veteran leader. They want to go small, they can have Irving and Rozier along with Brown, Tatum, and Baynes. They want to go a little bigger, have Rozier and Brown, along with Tatum, Hayward, and Baynes.

Obviously it won't be quite as seamless as this, but as a general plan I'd like to see this play out as such.

That team would be tied for 31st all time in scoring, tied for 60th all time in rebounding, and 14th all time in assists

 

[Eddie Jurak]

There are various different ways Brad could go with the starting lineup, but the top 9 seems pretty set:

Irving
Hayward
Horford
Smart
Brown
Morris
Tatum
Rozier
Baynes

After the big 3, a case could be made for starting anyone but Rozier, although Baynes would only be a limited minutes Amir Johnson type starter.

Not including the 2-way guys, the 10th spot could go to anyone who is left:

Olejeye
Theis
Yabusele
Nader
Larkin

 

[BaseballJones]

That team would be tied for 31st all time in scoring, tied for 60th all time in rebounding, and 14th all time in assists

43.5 rebounds a game would have put them 18th in the NBA last year. Or to put it another way...worse than average.

112 points a game would have put them 4th in the NBA last year. It's just 4 points more a game than they scored last year.

The past few years, as scoring has gone up, it's not so crazy to imagine a team scoring 112 a game. If this was Pistons or Knicks late 80s to early 90s, of course it would be silly to think this.

Am I being optimistic? Of course. But not crazy unrealistic.

 

[djbayko]

43.5 rebounds a game would have put them 18th in the NBA last year. Or to put it another way...worse than average.

112 points a game would have put them 4th in the NBA last year. It's just 4 points more a game than they scored last year.

The past few years, as scoring has gone up, it's not so crazy to imagine a team scoring 112 a game. If this was Pistons or Knicks late 80s to early 90s, of course it would be silly to think this.

Am I being optimistic? Of course. But not crazy unrealistic.

If your stats are correct, then there must be something wrong with the basketball-reference Team Season Finder. I don't have time to figure out what it is right now though. Sorry, I should have done a sanity check on the results rather than taking them at face value.

 

[BaseballJones]

If your stats are correct, then there must be something wrong with the basketball-reference Team Season Finder. I don't have time to figure out what it is right now though. Sorry, I should have done a sanity check on the results rather than taking them at face value.

Well it might be 31st all time in scoring. Scoring averages have gone up in the last couple of years. For a long time teams struggled to score in the 100s. But given the era we're in now, 112 isn't crazy.

 

[djbayko]

Well it might be 31st all time in scoring. Scoring averages have gone up in the last couple of years. For a long time teams struggled to score in the 100s. But given the era we're in now, 112 isn't crazy.

Yes, that might be correct, but there is definitely something funky going on with the sort by total rebounds in the results page. I'd just assume the data in my previous post is invalid for now.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

What do the C's have left for exceptions? I wouldn't mind seeing them pick up a Bogut or Hibbert for a big body to soak up some minutes, while also no being depended on for much.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yes, that might be correct, but there is definitely something funky going on with the sort by total rebounds in the results page. I'd just assume the data in my previous post is invalid for now.

Maybe. I looked here and got these team rebounding numbers.

http://m.espn.com/nba/aggregates?groupId=7&season=2017&seasonType=2&statgroup=rebounds-per-game&category=avgRebounds

 

[mcpickl]

What do the C's have left for exceptions? I wouldn't mind seeing them pick up a Bogut or Hibbert for a big body to soak up some minutes, while also no being depended on for much.

Minimums only

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Theis may surprise as a big who can shoot it a bit. He abused (a much younger) Zizic in his highlight video. I bet he gets a decent shot here.

 

[DJnVa]

Am I being optimistic? Of course. But not crazy unrealistic.

Only 2 NBA teams have done what you projected in the last 10 seasons--the Warriors of the last 2 years.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Well, now that the Kyrie deal is official, my choice for the last roster spot would be a center who can defend. Probably not a guy who would play significant minutes, but just someone who could add some size and defense when needed. Bogut if he were healthy and willing to take the minimum would be ideal, but that seems unlikely.

The four returning Celtics played 7,196 of the team's 19,755 regular season minutes last year: 36%. In the playoffs, it was about the same: 1,642/4,345=38%.

That is basically a different team. Brad has quite the coaching challenge on his hands.

 

[Montana Fan]

Well, now that the Kyrie deal is official, my choice for the last roster spot would be a center who can defend. Probably not a guy who would play significant minutes, but just someone who could add some size and defense when needed. Bogut if he were healthy and willing to take the minimum would be ideal, but that seems unlikely.

The four returning Celtics played 7,196 of the team's 19,755 regular season minutes last year: 36%. In the playoffs, it was about the same: 1,642/4,345=38%.

That is basically a different team. Brad has quite the coaching challenge on his hands.

As a former college coach he's probably as prepared for roster turnover as any coach in the NBA. I expect a modest slow start with a strong finish to the season. That's been the Celt's MO since Stevens arrived.

 

[Jimbodandy]

As a former college coach he's probably as prepared for roster turnover as any coach in the NBA. I expect a modest slow start with a strong finish to the season. That's been the Celt's MO since Stevens arrived.

This is true.

In addition, I expect development of guys during the year from practice time and game minutes, however limited the latter are. New guys, yes, but also some very young guys.

They should finish better than they start.

 

[the moops]

As a former college coach he's probably as prepared for roster turnover as any coach in the NBA. I expect a modest slow start with a strong finish to the season. That's been the Celt's MO since Stevens arrived.

He coached at Butler though. We aren't talking one and don elike Kentucky. There are only two NBA players currently from that school, and only 5 in the history.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

While we are lacking in frontcourt depth and toughness it is important to recognize that this team is far from a finished product. I'd view the first half of this season as the first evaluation period prior to deciding on potential trade deadline moves......and the entire first season in a somewhat similar fashion as to our long-term plans and needs.

My real purpose for posting in this thread is to recognize the job that Ainge has done in his second full rebuild of this organization. It was just over 2 1/2 years ago prior to the trade deadline when our starting lineup in a game was.......

1- Jameer Nelson
2- Avery Bradley
3- Jeff Green
4 - Jared Sullinger
5 - Tyler Zeller

Also included in our 11-man rotation that night were Brandan Wright, Phil Pressey, and Brandon Bass.


It's funny to look back at this and then move fast forward to see us getting all worked up over whether Kyrie is a Top-10 or merely a Top-25 player in this league. Perspective and oh yeah.....In Danny We Trust (and this is why).

 

[Eddie Jurak]

As a former college coach he's probably as prepared for roster turnover as any coach in the NBA. I expect a modest slow start with a strong finish to the season. That's been the Celt's MO since Stevens arrived.

Agreed. This level of turnover seems unprecedented even for a college coach. There is also the need for him to intergrate his first ever high profile star into the team concept, too.