Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

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pdub

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Assuming we make moves for guys like Lester and Shields, Clay will be viewed as #3 or lower on the rotation depth chart. Given that his cost isn't high I'd rather keep him and see what happens. Heck, if he has an exceptional first-half next year he could be a key piece in a trade for an impact bat. Like Middlebrooks, I'd rather not trade him at this point in time.  
 

OptimusPapi

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That entirely depends on what they can get for him.  I think one trade that works is him, Cespedes, and a lesser third piece for Cole Hamels.  Bud I think plan A for an ace is to trade for either Cueto or Sale.  
I think Hamels will cost more then that
 

TomRicardo

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OptimusPapi said:
I think Hamels will cost more then that
 
You know it is really tough to gauge Hamel's market since Amaro is so unreasonable.  Amaro was handed a championship team and ran it into the ground.  They have nothing really coming up and large immovable contracts.  He absolutely blew his chance to unload Lee.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Plympton91 said:
OPS overweights SLG and underweights OBP; that's different from saying OBP is superior to OPS. It means that for high SLG, very low OBP players you need a different metric.

I think Nava could easily fit as a LH 4th OF and backup 1B on this team. It might be his best role actually. But the problem is that they've again imported a "name" player who used to be good and clogs up the 25 man roster. The most likely scenario is that they keep Craig and his guaranteed contract to be the 2015 version of Sizemore (now down to .256 w/PHI as babip normalizes).
OPS is flawed, but you underrate slugging and ISO. Borderline useless because of his obp? Please, if you hate OPS, just use OPS+. In any planet, Yoenis is above average usefulness. The fact he was traded for Lester has no bearing on anything going forward. Measure him on his own merits, not your hatred of a trade.

I also think Yoenis is the most likely to be traded. I don't see him getting that deal from Boston, but I do think in Fenway and playing for Ferrell, some of his doubles turn to triples and he probably steals a few more bases.

I dont know if it's still true today and I'm guessing it's not because power is worth more in this run scoring climate, but obp was 1.4x that of slugging. So I agree with your underlying senfiment but get a grip dude. Yoenis hits for more than enough power.
 

EricFeczko

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Plympton91 said:
OPS overweights SLG and underweights OBP; that's different from saying OBP is superior to OPS. It means that for high SLG, very low OBP players you need a different metric.

I think Nava could easily fit as a LH 4th OF and backup 1B on this team. It might be his best role actually. But the problem is that they've again imported a "name" player who used to be good and clogs up the 25 man roster. The most likely scenario is that they keep Craig and his guaranteed contract to be the 2015 version of Sizemore (now down to .256 w/PHI as babip normalizes).
OPS is certainly an imperfect measure of offensive production, that's why its good to look at both the components of OPS and metrics that attempt to weight OBP and SLG better (e.g. wRC+ or wOBA).
I agree that Craig is unlikely to be effective again in the outfield, barring a miraculous recovery.

That being said, you've been going in circles again, or at least have been kind of all over the place; here's the trajectory of some of your outfield-related posts:
Here's what I'd shoot for barring any trades, which is highly unlikely but not worth guessing what they'll be. The planning should be for 2015 and 2016.

2015:

DH: Papi; C: Vazquez, Lavarnway; 1B: Napoli, Nava, 2B: Pedy, SS: Xander; 3B: free agent/Holt; LF: Cespedes; Craig, CF and RF: Victorino if healthy is the backup and competion between Castillo, Betts, and Bradley for 1 spot with two going to Pawtucket

2016:

DH: Papi; C: Vazquez, Swihart; 1B: Craig/Nava or Shaw; 2B: Pedy; SS: Marrero; 3B: Xander / Holt; LF: Cespedes or better; CF and RF: Two of Betts, Castillio and Bradley with the other backing up.
 
I still don't see any glut. Brentz and Hassan still have options as depth; Margot won't be in the picture until 2017 at the earliest. That covers all the outfielders.          
 
 
 

The Red Sox need to do more than just promote the next batch of JBJ's and Workman's to contend. At a minimum from free agency or trade, they need a #1 and #2 starter, they need an 8th inning relief ace to go with Koji, and they need a proven 3Bman (or SS if they're going to put Bogaerts at 3B). It seems to me like the best case reasonable scenario is to end up with Latos in a 4 for 1 deal, Sheilds or Iwakuma out of free agency, bid whatever you need to bid to get Miller back, even if you pay him closer money to set up for a year, and find a SS or 3B (I have no good ideas there; Headley on a make good contract if that's where his market goes?).    Note the lack of outfield discussion in what the red sox should do for 2015/2016    
They need to do a lot more than tinker around the edges, and they need to stop treating Yoenis Cespedes like he's a middle of the order hitter. He's Jonny Gomes with better defense but worse plate discipline.           
 
 If you chicks could look past the long ball, it's not like Cespedes is the team's only option in LF. Under a scenario where Castillo is in center and Betts in RF. If Victorino is healthy, it is far from clear that Cespedes would out produce a platoon of Victorino vs lefties and Nava vs. righties. And it's far from clear that Cespedes should play over Nava against righties if they're both on the team with Betts and Castillo living up to the hype.

Of course that assumes Castillo and Betts avoid the Bradley/Bogaerts syndrome. Far from clear. 
 
 
So they traded John Lester for the privilege of paying $14 million for slightly above average production in LF when they had a perfectly good platoon of Nava and Gomes providing slightly above average production in LF (with a much higher OBP) for less than half that. But, God forbid we give Lester more than 4 years, that might possibly perhaps result in an overpayment 5 years from now. Much better to definitely overpay for a LF now than maybe possibly perhaps overpay for a semi-ace pitcher later, I guess.
 
Of course, they can pay $14 million for a slightly above average OPS with a below 300 OBP. They are the best front office in major league history after all. Two last place finishes in the past 3 years notwithstanding, there's no reason to question anything at all.

I might point out that Cespedes OPS is 722 with Boston, that Fenway is a better hitters park than Oakland, and that after the first half of his rookie year he's been nothing special. I'd also point out that Billy Beane was the guy the Red Sox initially wanted to hire, with good reason. The last time he made a trade with the Red Sox, they got Andrew Bailey.          

 
I think your first post and the one in which you sum up what you think the plan for 2015/2016 should be are probably your best here. However, I think you got lost in the details of arguments/complaining about Craig/Cespedes trades, which made you lose the forest for the trees.


 
 

The Gray Eagle

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Cafardo's latest has some actual interesting info in it, surprisingly. He is a bad columnist, but people with the team do tell him what to write from time to time. But it's hard to tell whether what he's saying is his own opinion or something he's been told.
 
On Yoenis: first some criticism-- not clear if it's Nick's own, or from someone else:
"But why is he playing so deep, allowing so many balls to drop into left field for base hits? Also, why isn’t Cespedes spending more time working on his defense, especially in the quirkiest ballpark in baseball and one he’s not familiar with?"
"The feeling is Cespedes’s athleticism may need to be unleashed in Fenway’s more expansive right field, where he can take advantage of his strong arm."
"The feeling" presumably comes from someone with the front office I would guess.
 
And then there's also this:
"Cespedes has a year remaining on his contract and it’s likely the team would rather sign him than trade him."
Doesn't specify if the "likely the team would rather" part is his own thought or if it's from the front office. 
 
On Allen Craig:
"Sitting with a few scouts in Baltimore last week, his name came up in the context of “What on earth is going on?” After going 0 for 3 Wednesday night, Craig is hitting .117. “For a couple of years in the National League, I’m not sure there was any other hitter you’d want up in a big situation. He’s 30 years old. He can’t be done. Is he hurt? He must be because I’ve never seen him look so lost at the plate,” said a veteran scout who thought the Red Sox had struck gold when they acquired him with Joe Kelly in the John Lackey deal."
 
On Rusney Castillo:
"4.2 seconds time down the line out of the batter’s box is pedestrian, but it appears he can steal bases."
 
I highly doubt Nick was out there with a stopwatch timing him, so that 4.2 probably came from a scout or someone with the team. Not encouraging, since his speed was supposed to be one of his big assets. 
"Top talent evaluator Allard Baird has recommended the player to be worthy of a $72.5 million outlay."
 
On Jackie Bradley:
"An encouraging sign was seeing Bradley having a conversation with Tommy Harper in the clubhouse... If Bradley would listen, Harper would be a strong voice."
Implying that Bradley might not be listening to coaches? He said that the other day too, when asked if Bradley was confused by having so many voices of different coaches trying to help him:
"There aren’t that many voices in his head. He has two hitting coaches who are trying to help him, not hurt him. But if he doesn’t feel he wants to change his swing, there’s not much anyone can do. People blame hitting coaches way too much. It’s about the player’s willingness to accept suggestions and then trying to change things."
 
On Bryce Brentz:
"The Red Sox would also like to see more of Bryce Brentz. He has that intriguing righthanded power the Red Sox are afraid to give up on."
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The Gray Eagle said:
Cafardo's latest has some actual interesting info in it, surprisingly. He is a bad columnist, but people with the team do tell him what to write from time to time. But it's hard to tell whether what he's saying is his own opinion or something he's been told.
 
On Yoenis: first some criticism-- not clear if it's Nick's own, or from someone else:
"But why is he playing so deep, allowing so many balls to drop into left field for base hits? Also, why isn’t Cespedes spending more time working on his defense, especially in the quirkiest ballpark in baseball and one he’s not familiar with?"
"The feeling is Cespedes’s athleticism may need to be unleashed in Fenway’s more expansive right field, where he can take advantage of his strong arm."
"The feeling" presumably comes from someone with the front office I would guess.
 
And then there's also this:
"Cespedes has a year remaining on his contract and it’s likely the team would rather sign him than trade him."
Doesn't specify if the "likely the team would rather" part is his own thought or if it's from the front office. 
 
Interesting. Regarding the bolded bits:
 
1) I suspect the Sox coaches have been telling him to play deeper because it seemed like in his first few weeks here balls were dropping over his head for XBH a lot.
2) and 3) These two together are a little puzzling. If they're already disenchanted with his work ethic, why do they want to wrap him up? Maybe they see him as a DH (or a guy who can flip between DH and OF depending on the rest of the lineup) after Papi is gone?
 

geoduck no quahog

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On Cespedes and Craig - imagine what it must feel like to leave the only team you've really ever known, one that's going to the playoffs, for a last place club...
 
No excuse, but it must really suck.
 

Harry Hooper

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Interesting. Regarding the bolded bits:
 
1) I suspect the Sox coaches have been telling him to play deeper because it seemed like in his first few weeks here balls were dropping over his head for XBH a lot.
2) and 3) These two together are a little puzzling. If they're already disenchanted with his work ethic, why do they want to wrap him up? Maybe they see him as a DH (or a guy who can flip between DH and OF depending on the rest of the lineup) after Papi is gone?
 
 
That is not my recollection. He's been playing deep since he got here. Some XBH still did land behind him, but that's a product of his struggling to track down balls with any consistency. He plays deep to offset a lack of confidence that he will get a good read on a batted ball.Moving to RF would be a disaster. He has all the physical tools, but Cespedes needs to fanatically work on his defense a la Wade Boggs to meaningfully improve his fielding prowess.
 

jscola85

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seantoo said:
 Based on what exactly? There really isn't anything to base that on. He's raked through the minors until AAA and even then he has finished strong after experiencing his first professional struggles.
 
I like him but I could see why someone could think this.  He doesn't have any elite tool except his batting eye.  The rest are all average for a 3B.  And at 23, he's young but did not exactly fly through the system.
 
What encourages me about him is how he ended his time in Pawtucket.  In August over 96 ABs, he posted a line of .333/.413/.500.
 
All that said, there's no way I view him as a 2015 piece.  He should be back down in AAA and prove he can string another 300+ ABs together of good hitting like he showed in August, because he posted an OPS of about .600 for three straight months before his hot streak in August.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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jscola85 said:
 
I like him but I could see why someone could think this.  He doesn't have any elite tool except his batting eye.  The rest are all average for a 3B.  And at 23, he's young but did not exactly fly through the system.
 
As I pointed out in the 3B thread, this needs qualifying. He had a normal progression through his first couple of years, but you could say he flew through the upper levels. Between end of 2012 and June 2014, he was promoted four times in 20 months. That seems like a pretty fast trip. How many players (aside from the truly elite talents, which I don't think anyone is suggesting Cecchini is) get from single-A (not even high-A) to the majors in less than two calendar years?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
As I pointed out in the 3B thread, this needs qualifying. He had a normal progression through his first couple of years, but you could say he flew through the upper levels. Between end of 2012 and June 2014, he was promoted four times in 20 months. That seems like a pretty fast trip. How many players (aside from the truly elite talents, which I don't think anyone is suggesting Cecchini is) get from single-A (not even high-A) to the majors in less than two calendar years?
WMB, Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ. At one point, Garin was considered on par with JBJ and Betts so it's not shocking he rose fast. The Redsox are aggressive with promotions. Margot could very well end 2015 in Pawtaucket or getting a cup of coffee. It happens.
 

Drek717

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Trotsky said:
He strikes me as a AAAA type.  I don't think he's in the Sox future and he needs another season at AAA to rebound his value.
Depends on what you think Cecchini is as a player I guess.
 
If you think he's a slap hitter with good plate discipline and nothing else who can't really stick at 3B full time and who fell into a monster rut the first time he was challenged by AAA pitching then sure, he's not worth much.
 
If you think he's a good contact hitter with great plate discipline who after early contact/plate discipline success in AAA but no power to speak of reworked his swing to generate more power, this August coming out the other side of that process, while making steady progression as a defender, well, then he's likely to fall somewhere around Bill Mueller to Kevin Youkilis and you don't give up that kind of player at a position of need.
 
Plus he's a left handed hitter, which is looking like a bit of a scarcity for the Sox roster right now, so him being your future 3B really helps balance out the lineup.
 

Plympton91

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EricFeczko said:
OPS is certainly an imperfect measure of offensive production, that's why its good to look at both the components of OPS and metrics that attempt to weight OBP and SLG better (e.g. wRC+ or wOBA).
I agree that Craig is unlikely to be effective again in the outfield, barring a miraculous recovery.
That being said, you've been going in circles again, or at least have been kind of all over the place; here's the trajectory of some of your outfield-related posts:
 
I think your first post and the one in which you sum up what you think the plan for 2015/2016 should be are probably your best here. However, I think you got lost in the details of arguments/complaining about Craig/Cespedes trades, which made you lose the forest for the trees.


 
Yeah, that's pretty spot on. I went from not wanting Cespedes in the middle of the order to hating on the trade. Basically, another worst to first season would mean that the top 5 hitters next year have to be Betts, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz, and Napoli, in some order. They all, in an MLE projected and injury free world, out produce Cespedes when you weight OBP appropriately.
 

someoneanywhere

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On Rusney Castillo:
"4.2 seconds time down the line out of the batter’s box is pedestrian, but it appears he can steal bases."
 
I highly doubt Nick was out there with a stopwatch timing him, so that 4.2 probably came from a scout or someone with the team. Not encouraging, since his speed was supposed to be one of his big assets. 
"Top talent evaluator Allard Baird has recommended the player to be worthy of a $72.5 million outlay."
 
I'm not sure that tells us anything about "speed," since in baseball there are different kinds of it. Someone might be "slow" out of the box but be great at picking bags, or closing on balls, since they are different skills using the same tool. The tool plays differently depending on how it's used.

I will say that I just saw him tonight for the first time on the HR. I don't know how consistent he is or anything like that -- only that the swing is legitimate, and the hands are what we used to call "easy." If that is his repeatable mechanic, and assuming he can control the zone, watch out. He's legit.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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bosox79 said:
WMB, Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ. At one point, Garin was considered on par with JBJ and Betts so it's not shocking he rose fast. The Redsox are aggressive with promotions. Margot could very well end 2015 in Pawtaucket or getting a cup of coffee. It happens.
 
JBJ, yes--and I think the 20-20 hindsight consensus is that he was rushed. Betts, certainly, and Bogaerts, only just barely--but I think the latter, if not both, fall into the "elite talent" bucket.
 
WMB, no. Finished Greenville in 2009. Had a full year in Salem in 2010. Spent 2011 in Portland and Pawtucket, then got called up in 2012 early in his second year in Pawtucket. That's a reasonably brisk progress, but a full year slower than Cecchini's.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And in one game, Chrisian's OPS+ is right around AJP's Boston stint. He sits at .238/.304/.314.

If he can hit .250/.320/.320 do we take it? This team has the potential to have an average or plus bat everywhere besides C and w/e they do at 3b. This assumes Castillo can hit and Betts, X live up to expectations. That's without Victorino and Craig. Plus Garin and Brentz look like good depth and could be useful pieces next year.
 

chrisfont9

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bosox79 said:
And in one game, Chrisian's OPS+ is right around AJP's Boston stint. He sits at .238/.304/.314.

If he can hit .250/.320/.320 do we take it? This team has the potential to have an average or plus bat everywhere besides C and w/e they do at 3b. This assumes Castillo can hit and Betts, X live up to expectations. That's without Victorino and Craig. Plus Garin and Brentz look like good depth and could be useful pieces next year.
In his first full season? Sure. For his entire career, year after year? Nope. But if he can start there, one would hope that within 2-3 years he'll progress to a pretty valuable player.
 

Drek717

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
Honest question: Is there any reason, other than scouting his numbers, to think this is what happened? Did you personally see a change or have read about such a change? 
Its been suggested by friends of mine when talking Sox minor leaguers.  They are not ardent followers of the mL system and so I'd say referring to it as "scouting his numbers" is apt.  Cecchini has always said he hasn't altered his mechanics during or after the prolonged slump.
 
Personally, I think what we're really seeing is Cecchini's maturation as a hitter.  You know, that thing Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley have yet to do any of.  Cecchini's pitch recognition has always let him just wait out low minors guys with poor command (read: nearly all of them) until he gets walked or is tossed a meatball he can slap for an easy hit.  In AAA he saw, for the first time in his professional career, consistently challenging strikes from more advanced pitchers.  All of a sudden getting walked wasn't easy.  Living in hitter's counts wasn't easy.  Suddenly he needed to actually be the aggressor and when a pitch he could hit was thrown to him he needed to unload on it instead of always working the count.
 
Dave Cameron wrote an article on Mookie Betts recently (link here) where he talks about how players with low swing rates and high contact rates tend to have relatively low power production (ISO).  I think it is very possible we've seen Cecchini begin to mature away from that because he isn't Mookie Betts or Dustin Pedroia when it comes to pure contact ability, and as a result hit a wall in AAA.  The end result is that Cecchini needs to be more aggressive, which will negatively impact his OBP, but at the same time is going to increase the likelihood of extra bases.  Given Cecchini's physical size him being such a passive hitter is also very likely to have suppressed his power production throughout his entire career to this point, so when he becomes more aggressive it shouldn't be surprising to see his power numbers spike.
 
In a lot of ways he's a very similar hitter to Youkilis, and is showing a similar maturity curve, albeit as part of an organization that really values the patient approach and so has moved him up more aggressively.  Both were good BA, monster OBP guys throughout the lower minors.  Both suddenly hit a wall in AAA.  When Youkilis got over his he had a .592 SLG in 192 ABs at AAA in 2005.  Cecchini's August and September could well be the first signs of him making a similar maturation.
 
It also makes me wonder how much the Sox plate discipline uber alles narrative has impacted some younger players in making the move to the majors.  Jackie Bradley for example watches more good strikes go by early in counts than anyone I can recall.  It's almost like he's afraid to make contact because that rules out a free base via balls.  Middlebrooks went from a guy who would hack at anything and was at least a solid contact hitter with great power despite a shitty OBP to this guy who basically has no damn idea when to swing.
 
Meanwhile the minor leaguers who already had a nice balance in their approach are seeing it pay dividends.  Betts steps in and gets work done immediately.  Vaz has struggled in terms of production but his approach at the plate has been very mature and he's gotten a hit in 7 of his last 8 games including a monster game last night.  He isn't likely to ever turn into Yadi Molina, but I see no way the approach he's shown in the majors is really a .600 OPS guy over a full season.
 
Bogaerts is potentially an example of someone who fell into the trap even after some ML success.  His 2013 sample is obviously incredibly small, but from 2013 to 2014 his O-swing dropped almost 3%, his Z-swing dropped nearly 5%, and the pitches thrown in the zone to him moved up nearly 7%.  His pitchf/x data is similarly damning, showing a 2% increase in O-swing this year but a 7% decrease in Z-swing, with another roughly 6% increase in pitches in the zone, so it isn't just ML umpires.  Again, 2013 is a small sample but the 2013 Bogaerts was a guy clearly more willing to swing the bat when he liked what he saw (or wasn't quite so picky about what he'd like).  His swing is too good to leave the bat on his shoulder.
 
I think it's real possible Cecchini had to make this adjustment to be more aggressive in AAA and the end result might not be a .400 OBP guy in the majors, but it might well be a guy who hits .280/.370/.430 and I think right about now after the last few years wandering in the desert for a 3B we'd all rejoice to see that - in late 2015/early 2016 because he shouldn't be inked in to the ML roster for 2015 if this team expects to truly contend, he should prove he's turned the corner in AAA for at least the first few months.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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bosox79 said:
And in one game, Chrisian's OPS+ is right around AJP's Boston stint. He sits at .238/.304/.314.

If he can hit .250/.320/.320 do we take it? This team has the potential to have an average or plus bat everywhere besides C and w/e they do at 3b. This assumes Castillo can hit and Betts, X live up to expectations. That's without Victorino and Craig. Plus Garin and Brentz look like good depth and could be useful pieces next year.
Hell yeah.  Average OPS for catchers is right there.  Figure in his amazing overall defensive skills and we've got one of the better talents locked in for years.  I'm not sure how to platoon him and Swihart but it's a good problem to have.
 
And I'm beginning to be sold on Cecchini.  
 

touchstone033

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bosox79 said:
And in one game, Chrisian's OPS+ is right around AJP's Boston stint. He sits at .238/.304/.314.

If he can hit .250/.320/.320 do we take it? This team has the potential to have an average or plus bat everywhere besides C and w/e they do at 3b. This assumes Castillo can hit and Betts, X live up to expectations. That's without Victorino and Craig. Plus Garin and Brentz look like good depth and could be useful pieces next year.
 
At .250/.320/.320 you probably keep Vazquez even if he is an average receiver. (Unless you want to sign Russell Martin to a 4-year deal heading into his age 32 season.) But Vazquez has elite receiving skills. By some metrics, he outperforms Yadier Molina in pitch framing. I think you keep him as your primary backstop even if he hits .238/.304/.314. (Which, by the way, is close to or better than Molina's first 800+ PA: .233/.284/.339.)
 

Jed Zeppelin

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someoneanywhere said:
I'm not sure that tells us anything about "speed," since in baseball there are different kinds of it. Someone might be "slow" out of the box but be great at picking bags, or closing on balls, since they are different skills using the same tool. The tool plays differently depending on how it's used.
Mobile so I can't link the article but the FG scouting report, based on limited video evidence, said his average-ish home-to-first time was a result of his swing naturally pulling him to the left most of the time. Change of direction issue more than a speed issue. His bunt to first time is apparently dynamite.
 

MakMan44

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Jed Zeppelin said:
Mobile so I can't link the article but the FG scouting report, based on limited video evidence, said his average-ish home-to-first time was a result of his swing naturally pulling him to the left most of the time. Change of direction issue more than a speed issue. His bunt to first time is apparently dynamite.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-rusney-castillo-from-video/


Home to First on Bunt: 3.67
 


 If beating out ground balls for hits is what you’re hoping for, he may leave you disappointed. His swing takes him toward the left side of the diamond most of the time, making him a bit slower out of the box due to having to change direction. When he bunts, there’s no doubt he’s a menace, and with good placement it’s a guaranteed hit at that speed.
 

jscola85

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Trotsky said:
Hell yeah.  Average OPS for catchers is right there.  Figure in his amazing overall defensive skills and we've got one of the better talents locked in for years.  I'm not sure how to platoon him and Swihart but it's a good problem to have.
 
And I'm beginning to be sold on Cecchini.  
 
Based on 24 PAs?  Remember Middlebrooks' first 300 or so as a rookie?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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jscola85 said:
 
Based on 24 PAs?  Remember Middlebrooks' first 300 or so as a rookie?
 
I'd imagine the 1600 or so minor league PAs where he put up an aggregate .396 OBP helps back up the optimism. Middlebrooks sported a .331 aggregate OBP in a over minor league 2100 PA before he had his first MLB at bat.
 

soxhop411

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“@alexspeier: Cespedes also said he's not sure if he'd be interested in discussing a contract extension this offseason.”
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/515963959338602497
link to tweet

“@TimBritton: Cespedes said it’s too soon to talk extension. Not sure if he wants to yet.”
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Seriously.... how do the Sox land Cueto without losing X, Betts or Swihart?  Would Devers, Webster, Owens, Margot and Johnson be enough.... or some grouping of these guys?
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I think Cespedes' mind set prior to the trade was he'd be traded at the deadline next year and go into the next offseason exploring the FA market. Now he gets moved a year earlier to a team that actually spends money and the mindset has shifted somewhat. The timeline just changed and some huge variables got added. Boston, Fenway, $$, Rusney, etc. 
 

MakMan44

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Trotsky said:
Seriously.... how do the Sox land Cueto without losing X, Betts or Swihart?
The problem is that you can not give up anyone of those guys for a single year of SP, no matter how good they might be. It's going to be tough, and I really don't envy the position Ben is in going into this offseason. 
 

Cesar Crespo

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Trotsky said:
Seriously.... how do the Sox land Cueto without losing X, Betts or Swihart?  Would Devers, Webster, Owens, Margot and Johnson be enough.... or some grouping of these guys?
There's a debate to be made EdRod is our number 1 prospect. I think he's 3rd but he has to have pretty big value given his stock coming into the year and how he finished. He could be a big chip in a trade. Speier was on the radio yesterday saying Brian Johnson could play a part for the '15 Sox too. I hope they keep EdRod and Owens though, the rest of the SP prospects/grads just seem meh. Johnson has the LHP thing going for him anyway.

I also can't help but get excited by this offense especially if they fill 3b. The power/speed combo and the mix of aggressive and patient hitters is entertaining. Betts, Castillo, Pedroia, Yoenis could all steal 15-20 at the least, and every regular besides Vaz could hit 10+ HRS.

A lot would have to go according to plan, but X, Betts and Castillo have had promising Septembers and have elite pedigree. Nap, Ortiz, Pedroia, Cespedes are more or less givens although Papi is old so meh.

Team has offensive depth though, mostly in lottery form (Craig, Vic) again but we have the whole offseason.

I'd like to see them give Garin time at 1b/RF/LF too unless they feel he is a long term solution at 3rd. He wouldn't be a bad bat off the bench and is a smart baserunner. For him to get any time next year seems to be a back up, and they need LHH so he could play a role but the Craig/Nava/Vic glut needs to be taken care of. Starting in AAA is the obvious course of action anyway probably, for depth reasons.

I like Brentz too, but same boat. I could see him being a useful power bat off the bench. Unlike Garin, I don't think anyone views Brentz as a full timer and he could ride the shuttle I believe so you aren't stuck with a Carp situation.

Pitching I won't even speculate on as I think we don't even know 3/5 of our rotation yet.

Bring on 2015 though. This team's offensive potential is scary good with a real 3b. Let's make it a reality. Things will go wrong, but if it all went right you are talking a lineup that could sport 7 120+ OPS bats and they are already on the team in Ortiz, Napoli, Pedroia, X, Yoenis, Rosney and Betts. I don't think any could be considered absurd, albiet it not likely. All those guys should be league average at least. Xander should improve immensely, Betts is a different breed and Castillo isn't really a rookie.
Relying on young guys again, but Betts and Castillo are vastly different than JBJ and WMB.

I'm legit excited for the '15 season than I've been for a season in awhile. /contained homerism. My unabashed fanboy in me is projecting a top 5 finish in MVP voting for Rosney. Realistically, ROY would be cool.
 

LostinNJ

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Jul 19, 2005
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It's apparently a given that they will move heaven and earth to contend in 2015, and thus might bundle top prospects for stars. But the smarter play is to build a team that will contend for several years after 2015. In 2016 they will have all the guys we've already seen in Fenway, plus Swihart, Owens, Johnson, and Rodriguez. They could have a really good, really cheap core to build around, with plenty of money to spend and surplus arms to trade to fill the gaps.
 

geoduck no quahog

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All I know is that the Red Sox can't go into 2015 with only 1 LHH in the regular lineup: Vazquez, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino, Ortiz, Betts?, Craig?, 3B?, Nava?
 
Something's gotta give.
 

bosockboy

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Craig or Victorino gets moved....I just don't see how they could keep both with Nava, Holt and a catcher pretty much guaranteed bench spots.

My guess is they hope Craig takes 1B in 2016, so I expect them to shop Vic.
 

gammoseditor

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Rudy Pemberton said:
I'm not sure Nava (or Holt, for that matter) are guaranteed anything.

Trading Craig or Victorino would be pretty difficult.
 
If they picked up half his salary I'm sure it would be very easy to move Victorino.  He still has upside and can play all three OF positions well.  
 

Hee Sox Choi

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bosockboy said:
Craig or Victorino gets moved....I just don't see how they could keep both with Nava, Holt and a catcher pretty much guaranteed bench spots.

My guess is they hope Craig takes 1B in 2016, so I expect them to shop Vic.
You don't shop these guys until late in Spring Training, once you know who's healthy.  No one will give you anything for Craig or Victorino without eating most of their salaries.  Get them to Spring Training, let them show what they can do and then make decisions.  Both of their values couldn't be lower than right now, so you be patient and take them both to Spring Training.  If we have too many OFs and THEN Victorino or Craig looks good during Spring, maybe you get something for one of them.  But trading them before that is just selling at the worst possible time.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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gammoseditor said:
 
If they picked up half his salary I'm sure it would be very easy to move Victorino.  He still has upside and can play all three OF positions well.  
I would not pay 6.5 million for a guy who just had back surgery until I've seen him running and diving in Spring Training.
 

Fireball Fred

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Bear in mind that taking his contract into account, Cliff Lee has negative value - and of course he's injured. Depending upon medical evaluations, and a negotiation over who pays what, he might well be available at a reasonable cost in prospects.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I actually think Cespedes is the most likely outfield candidate for trade. 1 year remaining on his contract, but could bring back something of real value.
 

67WasBest

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geoduck no quahog said:
I actually think Cespedes is the most likely outfield candidate for trade. 1 year remaining on his contract, but could bring back something of real value.
Agreed.  He fit a huge hole in the lineup at the time of acquisition, but two things happened after that to change the landscape; 1) Castillo signed, and 2) Betts emerged as a player that has to be in the 2015 mix.  I do believe they see Victorino in RF next year, Castillo in CF and Cespedes or Betts in LF. 
 
Any proposed trade is simply spitballing at this point, but the Sox have crazy flexibility and option to make deals this year..  One idea I've tossed around was a Cespedes, and Webster for Cueto and a high ceiling, longer term prospect.  Reds upgrade the LF hole and their anemic offense, backfill a rotation spot, and still have the $4.5M from Ludwig for other needs.  In the end, the Reds win the deal because they get the 6 years of Webster while Cespedes and Cueto have 1 year each.
 

Sprowl

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geoduck no quahog said:
All I know is that the Red Sox can't go into 2015 with only 1 LHH in the regular lineup: Vazquez, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino, Ortiz, Betts?, Craig?, 3B?, Nava?
 
Something's gotta give.
 
That gives a leg up to Holt, Cecchini and Swihart in the Spring Training depth charts. Victorino could (presumably) drag his left-handed swing out of the deep freeze.
 
Fireball Fred said:
Bear in mind that taking his contract into account, Cliff Lee has negative value - and of course he's injured. Depending upon medical evaluations, and a negotiation over who pays what, he might well be available at a reasonable cost in prospects.
How about a reasonable counter-cost in damaged goods? Craig showed next to nothing at all in the field and at bat in 2014. Sign one FA SP, whether it's Lester (same old same old), Scherzer (w00t!), or Shields (meh), and fill in the next slot with Lee, and a 3-4-5 of Buchholz-Kelly-DLR looks pretty good. With Webster, Owens, Ranaudo and Wright in the bullpen or in the bucket, and Escobar and Rodriguez nipping at their heels, the Red Sox 2015 wouldn't be lacking for starting depth.
 

CaskNFappin

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I think it's foolish to believe we won't trade X, Betts, Swihart, Owens, or some combination for a front line pitcher. <br />
<br />
Everyone is penciling in Betts all over the diamond but a couple dozen GMs are going to be approached about their SP1 by Ben and they'd be fools to not draw a line in the sand regarding Mookie.<br />
<br />
The good news is that Rusney looks legit in the smallest of sample sizes. Nonetheless his 72m contract gives him a long leash in CF. Thus, Mookie is blocked virtually everywhere but an unnatural 3b. <br />
<br />
Even if we sign Lester or Scherzer, the rotation is very unpredictable, and the only way to accommodate for that is to trade young value for a proven commodity. Cueto....Latos....Straus....Sale....guys we haven't thought of.....they're all gonna cost Betts. It's true fanboy stuff to believe were getting an ace for Webster, Barnes, RDLR, Ranaudo, Escobar, etc. <br />
<br />
Betts has value at an all time high.....time to cash in.
 

Rasputin

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CaskNFappin said:
I think it's foolish to believe we won't trade X, Betts, Swihart, Owens, or some combination for a front line pitcher. <br />
<br />
Everyone is penciling in Betts all over the diamond but a couple dozen GMs are going to be approached about their SP1 by Ben and they'd be fools to not draw a line in the sand regarding Mookie.<br />
<br />
The good news is that Rusney looks legit in the smallest of sample sizes. Nonetheless his 72m contract gives him a long leash in CF. Thus, Mookie is blocked virtually everywhere but an unnatural 3b. <br />
<br />
Even if we sign Lester or Scherzer, the rotation is very unpredictable, and the only way to accommodate for that is to trade young value for a proven commodity. Cueto....Latos....Straus....Sale....guys we haven't thought of.....they're all gonna cost Betts. It's true fanboy stuff to believe were getting an ace for Webster, Barnes, RDLR, Ranaudo, Escobar, etc. <br />
<br />
Betts has value at an all time high.....time to cash in.
There's almost nothing about this that I don't hate.

If we sign a frontline starting pitcher as a free agent, we won't have to trade for one.

Mookie is not blocked everywhere. He is, in fact, the obvious choice to start in right. Maybe they start him in center and Castillo in right. I don't really care, but any proposal that doesn't have those two guys in those two positions has some 'splaining to do.
 
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