Yankees acquire James Paxton for Justus Sheffield and two lower prospects

RedOctober3829

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Solid pickup for Yankees, but I thought using Sheffield would get a better player. Paxton has a ton of talent but has rarely pitched in a pennant race. It remains to be seen how well he handles pitching in a much tougher environment than he’s ever pitched in as well.
 

jon abbey

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Solid pickup for Yankees, but I thought using Sheffield would get a better player.
NY and CLE supposedly were talking about a deal centered around Sheffield for Carrasco, but CLE insisted on Florial also and it fell through.
 

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Mariner fans are going to be screaming about how they should have gotten more, and there may be something to that considering it's still November and DiPoto grabbed what sounds like maybe the first decent offer, but who knows? They shouldn't be disappointed in the abstract.
This is fair value. Strip away that Paxton throws 100 and strikes out a lot of batters and he is a good pitcher with durability issues. Seattle fans are still seeing his potential as a Cy Young caliber pitcher but he will likely never put together that season. M’s could have gambled on him having a hot first half and shopped him at the deadline but his durability issues could have that blow up so I think they made the right call here.
 

jtn46

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wut?

Strip away that Sale throws 100 and strikes out a lot of batters too while you're at it.
I just think it creates this idea that he is better than he actually is. Paxton is 30, we know what he is now, Mariners fans have spent his entire career fantasizing about a pitcher he isn’t so overrate his value in the trade market.
 

jon abbey

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Fangraphs' take:

"The free-agent market includes names like Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel. There’s been chatter the Mets might be willing to trade Noah Syndergaard. There’s been chatter the Indians might be willing to trade Carlos Carrasco or Corey Kluber. But when the Mariners signaled their intent to take a step back this offseason, James Paxton became an obvious trade candidate, and quite possibly the best pitcher available. At least, the best pitcher available under realistic circumstances, since I don’t even know what it would take to pry Kluber away."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-now-have-a-second-ace/
 

jon abbey

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Really impressed with Cashman that he didn't have to throw in a second top arm like Loaisiga or Abreu, Swanson isn't nothing but he is second tier IMO.
 

billy ashley

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Deal makes a ton of sense on both sides.

New York gets an Ace on a Discount because of his health history, but a guy who absolutely is a stud when healthy.

The Mariners get a great prospect who is close to the majors, but suffers from major control issues.

I wish I could find a reason to bag on NY for this, but it's a good deal for them. It also makes sense for Seattle.
 

DeadlySplitter

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some tidbits from Morosi:

Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 4h4 hours ago
Source: #Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, following the James Paxton deal. Yankees are placing a higher priority on adding one more starting pitcher than signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.


Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 3h3 hours ago
Source: #Astros’ refusal to include Forrest Whitley in their offer for James Paxton precipitated #Mariners decision to trade Paxton to #Yankees.


Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 3h3 hours ago
Source: #Yankees mentioned #Mariners SS Jean Segura in trade talks before decision was made to focus on Paxton alone. Segura’s inclusion in the deal would have all but eliminated Yankees as possible destination for Manny Machado.
 

jon abbey

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Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 3h3 hours ago
Source: #Astros’ refusal to include Forrest Whitley in their offer for James Paxton precipitated #Mariners decision to trade Paxton to #Yankees.
With Keuchel and Morton hitting FA this winter, McCullers getting Tommy John, and Verlander and Cole entering the final year of their deals this year, HOU has no definite SPs currently under control for 2020 and so it would be harder for them to move their seeming sure thing stud SP Whitley for two years of Paxton.
 

j-man

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i like the deal but i wish we couild trade mike s to LA to free up $$ then sign harper to a 8 year 325 mil deal then trade gray to SD then sign dallas k to 3/75 re-sign robinson then sign Nathan Eovaldi back as a SP/situp man
 

jon abbey

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i like the deal but i wish we couild trade mike s to LA to free up $$ then sign harper to a 8 year 325 mil
Not picking on you, but I don't get why so many people want to trade Stanton on a $22M AAV to sign Harper on a $35M or $40M AAV. You could cover a good chunk of Machado with the difference there, and you're not going to get much in return from LA if there was any chance of that happening (Stanton has a no-trade also, although he would probably waive it to go to CA).
 

crow216

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i like the deal but i wish we couild trade mike s to LA to free up $$ then sign harper to a 8 year 325 mil deal then trade gray to SD then sign dallas k to 3/75 re-sign robinson then sign Nathan Eovaldi back as a SP/situp man
Stanton is very likely here to stay and Yankees fans should get used to it.
 

j-man

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Not picking on you, but I don't get why so many people want to trade Stanton on a $22M AAV to sign Harper on a $35M or $40M AAV. You could cover a good chunk of Machado with the difference there, and you're not going to get much in return from LA if there was any chance of that happening (Stanton has a no-trade also, although he would probably waive it to go to CA).
i wouild not want anything if the dodgers take the money which they wont wouild machado move to 3b in 2020 or 2021 this sounds weird but i am a littie worryed about the pen
 

jon abbey

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i wouild not want anything if the dodgers take the money which they wont wouild machado move to 3b in 2020 or 2021 this sounds weird but i am a littie worryed about the pen
Yep, I have them signing two relievers from the group of Miller/Robertson/Ottavino/Britton so that they’re stacked down there again.
 

Plympton91

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This is yet another Brinks level heist by Cashman.

Absolute monster of a deal for the Yankees 2019-2020 seasons. Already an all star and a potential ace for about the package the Sox gave for Kimbrel.

This sucks from perspective of a Red Sox fan. Your move Dave.
 

j-man

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This is yet another Brinks level heist by Cashman.

Absolute monster of a deal for the Yankees 2019-2020 seasons. Already an all star and a potential ace for about the package the Sox gave for Kimbrel.

This sucks from perspective of a Red Sox fan. Your move Dave.
boston lineup is beastly overall they have the better manager unless sale breaks down and price plays more fortnite boston is still every bit as good as the yanks
 

hbk72777

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I'll take it

We've seen too many "next big thing' pitchers that didn't live up to the hype. For Every Leiter there's a Halsey, for every Drabek there's a Cluassen or Brackman

Of course, trading with Seattle brings back Buhner jitters in every Yankees fan
 

jon abbey

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If you combine the 2016 Miller and today's Paxton trade, Sheffield cancels out and you get:

NY gives up:

2 1/3 years of Miller
Swanson
Thompson-Williams

NY gets:

2 years of Paxton
Clint
Heller (recovering from Tommy John and still on the 40 man)
Feyereisen (spent all last year in the Scranton bullpen, likely unprotected again tomorrow)

So basically a pennant race plus two years of Miller got Cashman two years of a guy with ace stuff and the guy who easily led the IL in OPS last year at 23. And now he can resign Miller back if he wants, like he did with the Chapman/Gleyber heist...
 

jon abbey

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Of course, trading with Seattle brings back Buhner jitters in every Yankees fan
Fans are funny, do you geninely think there is a smidgen of relevance there? I mean, I remember this too, but it's not like Buhner ended up as a MVP or a Hall of Famer (he was really good) and it happened in 1988. Pineda for Montero worked out well and Cashman/DiPoto has been a pipeline of small goodies coming East. But it works out for both teams, DiPoto has traded away his whole system and NY has had guys to spare, today's three entered SEA's prospect list at 1, 9 and 14 respectively. Sheffield/Swanson could both be in the SEA rotation by June, it makes sense both ways (maybe they could have gotten a bit more from HOU but this way he is out of the division), but Cashman really did a nice job limiting the secondary pieces, I think.
 

crow216

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Fans are funny, do you geninely think there is a smidgen of relevance there? I mean, I remember this too, but it's not like Buhner ended up as a MVP or a Hall of Famer (he was really good) and it happened in 1988. Pineda for Montero worked out well and Cashman/DiPoto has been a pipeline of small goodies coming East. But it works out for both teams, DiPoto has traded away his whole system and NY has had guys to spare, today's three entered SEA's prospect list at 1, 9 and 14 respectively. Sheffield/Swanson could both be in the SEA rotation by June, it makes sense both ways (maybe they could have gotten a bit more from HOU but this way he is out of the division), but Cashman really did a nice job limiting the secondary pieces, I think.
Also, despite Cashman trading a lot of prospects the past 2 years, we seem to have kept all the players who are having the largest impacts. His only real bust was Lance Lynn who still gave us some good innings. Gray is TBD because we might get back just as much value as we traded.
 

Pandarama

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Diaz isn't available, I think Clint needs to rebuild value in AAA at the start of the season. NY has no OF depth in AAA right now after moving Gamel and Cave and McKinney in the last couple of seasons, they need to strengthen that area even without Clint.
Dipoto says otherwise.

Dipoto reiterated that closer Edwin Diaz, left-handed starter Marco Gonzales and outfielder Mitch Haniger aren’t priorities to be traded but aren’t untouchable.

“We are going to stay open-minded to anything with a general ‘never say never,’ ” Dipoto said. “With Marco, with Mitch with Eddie, we would have to be blown away to move players like that. That’s what we are trying to acquire. We do want to be open-minded to how we can make our roster better sooner than later, but it’s hard to envision ways we are going to make it better on the sooner end without guys like that around. They’re very important to what we are doing.”
I think the M's could get more in trade for Edwin Diaz than for any other player in the system. There’s four more years until he hits free agency, and a 3rd place club can make do without a proven shutdown closer.

Instead, the M’s will keep him and he’ll spend a full season on the 60-day DL recovering from Tommy John surgery. I just don’t know which season it will be. (Probably an expensive one, after he’s arb-eligible. You can take the Red Sox fan out of Boston, but you can't take the Red Sox out of the fan.)

Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 3h3 hours ago
Source: #Yankees mentioned #Mariners SS Jean Segura in trade talks before decision was made to focus on Paxton alone. Segura’s inclusion in the deal would have all but eliminated Yankees as possible destination for Manny Machado.
Segura's contract includes "full no-trade protection", according to Cot's.
 

jon abbey

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His only real bust was Lance Lynn who still gave us some good innings.
Actually this was a combo move with the STL trade because moving Tyler Austin (and Bird's continued suckage) and getting Voit a chance ended up with him as the best hitter in baseball for the final quarter of the season. That is not an exaggeration, Voit somehow ended up leading all of MLB in xwOBA (150 PA minimum), with 2-6 being Mookie, Trout, JDM, Yelich and the almighty Steve Pearce. Also he is still pre-arb and optionable, maybe Cashman's best longer-term move last year along with somehow stealing Michael King from MIA?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=&min=150

Also even just the Lynn part was a success because it let them move Gray out of the rotation long enough to get to Sept 1 and let the deeper roster allow them to keep him on the roster but bury him until auction time this winter.

Cashman has made mistakes since the Aug 2016 turnaround but not too many. The worst right now is maybe looking like Widener and Solak for Drury, not that either of those two would maybe have helped NY directly, but they probably could have been moved for more later on.
 

Adrian's Dome

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This is yet another Brinks level heist by Cashman.

Absolute monster of a deal for the Yankees 2019-2020 seasons. Already an all star and a potential ace for about the package the Sox gave for Kimbrel.

This sucks from perspective of a Red Sox fan. Your move Dave.
Wait, what? This was a good move for Cash, but let's reel it in a bit here. Paxton is a good pitcher, but he put up a similar ERA to CC Sabathia last year in a pitchers' park and at 30 years old has never eclipsed 165 innings in his career. Sheffield isn't exactly garbage and is definitely a better/higher ceiling/less blocked prospect than Margot ever was.

Does it suck as a Red Sox fan when the Yankees get good players? Sure, I guess, yeah. I still think I'd rather be in our spot than theirs.
 

jon abbey

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I still think I'd rather be in our spot than theirs.
Well, no one's playing games that count again until April. NY is still going to add probably 3-5 impact guys and BOS has lost Eovaldi and Kimbrel and Kelly for now and Cots already has them at $224.5M, $246M is the highest tax level this year, $206M the lowest (Cots has NY at $180M with Paxton but that is counting $9M for Gray). I think BOS needs Eovaldi and Kelly and another top reliever but that will certainly put them over the top penalty level again.
 

jon abbey

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Anyway, let's try to keep this to the Paxton deal, here he is striking out 16 A's in 7 innings (!!!) last May, painting the upper border at 98 over and over and over. Yes, please.

 

Adrian's Dome

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Well, no one's playing games that count again until April. NY is still going to add probably 3-5 impact guys and BOS has lost Eovaldi and Kimbrel and Kelly for now and Cots already has them at $224.5M, $246M is the highest tax level this year, $206M the lowest (Cots has NY at $180M with Paxton but that is counting $9M for Gray). I think BOS needs Eovaldi and Kelly and another top reliever but that will certainly put them over the top penalty level again.
I meant that as "another WS victory in the ledger".

And please, as both NY and Boston fans, we all know damn well that winning the offseason hardly ever translates to winning the real season.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Deal makes a ton of sense on both sides.

New York gets an Ace on a Discount because of his health history, but a guy who absolutely is a stud when healthy.

The Mariners get a great prospect who is close to the majors, but suffers from major control issues.

I wish I could find a reason to bag on NY for this, but it's a good deal for them. It also makes sense for Seattle.
He’s a very solid pickup that I don’t like seeing going to a rival for a modest price. But let’s not go overboard, he’s not an ace, capital A or small a.
 

jon abbey

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He’s a very solid pickup that I don’t like seeing going to a rival for a modest price. But let’s not go overboard, he’s not an ace, capital A or small a.
Because of innings? He is a 150 inning per year ace, if that is a thing. His FIP over the last three seasons is 4th in all of baseball.
 

billy ashley

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What Jon Abbey said.

He's one of the best SP in baseball on an inning by inning basis.

He was available at a discount because he's not durable. This is a really, really good pitcher. New York gave up a really good, but flawed SP prospect to get him.

If Paxton were durable he'd be in the middle of a HoF type run. Instead he's just an excellent pitcher, among the league's best.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Whoa, yeah I'm gonna just say I don't think FIP is the end all be all and yes, injuries play a part, but he also huge spike in HRs last year. Then I'm gonna back out. HoF type run? Yikes.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Wouldn’t the better move be to sign both Corbin and Happ and keep Sheffield for the inevitable C.C. disables list stint?
Unless the Yankees don’t believe in Sheffield I suppose.
6 years of service for a starter Yankees fans have been drooling over and now it’s gone
 

billy ashley

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those are fair points about the hr rate. as are comments about the hard contact.

But the guy has averaged about 4 fwar a year for 3 years while averaging around 140 ip.

i get that volume matters, but thats a hell of a 3 year run. if he could stay on the mound he would be among the premier pitchers in the league.
 

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I’m thrilled by this deal if it means the MFY are out on Corbin. He’s the one guy available whom I’d really prefer not to see 3-4x/year.

Of course, there’s no reason they couldn’t do both, particularly if they pass on Harper and Machado (which would probably be wise).
 

Wingack

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I’m thrilled by this deal if it means the MFY are out on Corbin. He’s the one guy available whom I’d really prefer not to see 3-4x/year.

Of course, there’s no reason they couldn’t do both, particularly if they pass on Harper and Machado (which would probably be wise).
I think they are getting Corbin too for what it is worth. Especially since Paxton is so affordable.
 

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JimD

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Solid deal for both sides. My angst level as a Sox fan is not spiking right now because everyone fully expected the Yankees to add at least a couple of top-tier SP's. Paxton is a great get for them but he is already 30, he needs to stay on the field and Sheffield was not a small price to pay. Definitely keeps the pressure on Dombrowski to re-sign Eovaldi or come up with a suitable replacement.
 

crow216

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His injury history is odd. Outside of being hit by a liner, he has a bunch of minor strains, tightness, and soreness among different muscle groups. His worst injury last year was some back tightness. He isn’t a ticking time bomb like Ohtani or Eovaldi, he just seems prone to muscle tweaks. That sort of thing can be manageable, especially leading into the second half.
 

crow216

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Wouldn’t the better move be to sign both Corbin and Happ and keep Sheffield for the inevitable C.C. disables list stint?
Unless the Yankees don’t believe in Sheffield I suppose.
6 years of service for a starter Yankees fans have been drooling over and now it’s gone
They have German, Loaisiga, and Montgomery waiting in the wings. All of them are pretty much MLB ready.