Yankees acquire James Paxton for Justus Sheffield and two lower prospects

curly2

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Who are the other two guys?
Swanson is a righty who's 25 and No. 22 on MLB's Yankees prospect list. Thompson-Williams is a lefty-hitting outfielder who didn't make the top 30 and will turn 24 in April.

Looks like it's all about Sheffield for the M's.
 
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soxin6

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I am surprised that the Mariners couldn't get more for Paxton since he is still under control for two more years. Sheffield could end up being a stud, especially away from the pressure of pitching for the Yankees and moving into less of a bandbox, but giving up on proven starting pitching for one top prospect seems like selling low.
 

amfox1

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Swanson projects as a back-end starter or reliever and probably is in the majors at some point in 2019 for SEA.

Thompson-Williams is either a sell-high candidate or a breakout prospect, probably the former. He's is an extremely athletic player with above-average speed and good instincts (plus range, average arm) on the field. This season he has demonstrated good power to all fields and strong contact rates. Probably starts in AA in 2019.
 

Spelunker

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Ugh. Terrible.

Seems like a great deal for the Yanks. Kudos I guess.
 

crow216

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Your #1 rated prospect for James Paxton.
Sure, but he was going to have a difficult time developing his way onto the rotation because the team had zero chance of entering the year with a rookie starter. You gotta give to get and this is a very agreeable trade for the Yankees.
 

jtn46

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Don’t totally get this, Yankees must have been very down on Sheffield. I think he will likely have 2 years with the Mariners as valuable as the 2 years the Yankees have of Paxton.

Even as a GFIN move Paxton is tricky because they roll the dice that he is healthy in October. I think a Cleveland pitcher would have been a better use of Sheffield as a chip.
 

DeadlySplitter

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(and even then, he got torched against the Yankees in the WC Game last year.
you're thinking of someone else... A's faced the Yanks in WC last year. Mariners have the longest playoff drought and are now embarking on a retool at best, rebuild/teardown at worst.
 

curly2

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This may be a very good deal for both teams. Paxton should be really good for the Yankees, but with Sheffield, for the first time in years, it felt to me like Cashman actually gave up someone good in a trade.

The other two guys had good numbers, but were old for their leagues, and Swanson has the body of John Candy.

If the Yankees sign Corbin to go with Paxton, the Sox re-signing Pierce looks even better.
 

jtn46

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you're thinking of someone else... A's faced the Yanks in WC last year. Mariners have the longest playoff drought and are now embarking on a retool at best, rebuild/teardown at worst.
Yeah I fixed it, maybe was thinking of a regular season game where they torched him.
 

chawson

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Do the Yanks have middling system now? Only Florial inside the top 100, right?
 

crow216

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Do the Yanks have middling system now? Only Florial inside the top 100, right?
Not quite, but there's not much at the top besides Frazier, Florial, and Estrada. There is a shitload of talent at the bottom though and Cashman just went bonkers again with the international signings.

My guess is that they'll be ranked somewhere between 17-23
 

Ed Hillel

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I honestly don’t think Paxton is all that good, so I think it’s a meh deal. If you translate his stats to Yankee Stadium and the AL East, he could easily be a 4.5+ ERA guy, or he could implode and end up in the bullpen. I think I would have run with Sheffield.
 

The Big Red Kahuna

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Paxton a great get*




*until he hits his 150-160 innings ceiling in late August

**kidding... potential to be a very nice acquisition
 

Wingack

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I honestly don’t think Paxton is all that good, so I think it’s a meh deal. If you translate his stats to Yankee Stadium and the AL East, he could easily be a 4.5+ ERA guy, or he could implode and end up in the bullpen. I think I would have run with Sheffield.
This probably true of anyone who isn’t among the handful of aces that exist. Heck look at Porcello, sometimes he had a 4.50 ERA sometimes he wins a Cy Young.
 

chrisfont9

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I honestly don’t think Paxton is all that good, so I think it’s a meh deal. If you translate his stats to Yankee Stadium and the AL East, he could easily be a 4.5+ ERA guy, or he could implode and end up in the bullpen. I think I would have run with Sheffield.
He's a run higher away from SafeCo, 3.87 ERA. But his k/9 keeps climbing, as do his innings and starts. Possible late bloomer?
 

chrisfont9

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I don't know, seems like a fair deal for both teams. Sort of like an Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz deal, although Sheffield is a whole lot closer to the bigs.
Mariner fans are going to be screaming about how they should have gotten more, and there may be something to that considering it's still November and DiPoto grabbed what sounds like maybe the first decent offer, but who knows? They shouldn't be disappointed in the abstract.
 

jon abbey

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Just seeing this, not much to add yet, but one thing is that Paxton threw 50 innings in AAA a few years ago, so he’s thrown something like 460 total innings the last three seasons combined, which is more than it looks like if you just check his big league totals.
 

Ed Hillel

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This probably true of anyone who isn’t among the handful of aces that exist. Heck look at Porcello, sometimes he had a 4.50 ERA sometimes he wins a Cy Young.
Yeah, I certainly think he is a good pitcher, but I am pretty high on Sheffield and think he will be better. He’s also younger and under control for longer. This isn’t a bad move or anything, the Yankees are getting a high floor in exchange for a lottery ticket, but in this case I would have kept the ticket. I think Paxton is overrated because he does the sexy stuff very, very well.

If I were the Mariners, I would be happy with this. If you can get Sheffield and Paxton is on the block, you have to pounce.
 

jon abbey

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Pitchers with K% above 30% and BB% below 7% (min. 150 IP) in 2018:

James Paxton
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
Justin Verlander
Jacob deGrom
Patrick Corbin
 

jon abbey

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Swanson, NY got from TEX as one of the pieces in the Beltran deal in 2016, he was absolutely dominant in AA last year but was meh in AAA and turned 25 in September.

Thoimpson-Williams was a 5th round pick in 2016 who blossomed last year into a 20/20 player (in just 368 ABs) who is athletic enough to stick in CF, but he also was old for his league, he turns 24 in April and played mostly in high A Tampa last year.
 

jon abbey

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We all know that NY needed two more SPs this winter somehow, and Paxton made the most sense by process of elimination. They were likely to get one via FA and one via trade, but Corbin's market may be ridiculous for a guy who is more of a 2 or a 3 than a real ace. I posted this elsewhere over the weekend:

"No on Bumgarner, too high of a price for one year of a guy whose velocity is trending down every year.

No on Carrasco, the Red Sox have destroyed him the last few years.

Yes on Kluber or Paxton at a fair price."
 

BaseballJones

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Good trade for the Yankees. Paxton is a good pitcher. He's got good career numbers against the AL East (except Toronto and NYY, which, of course, won't matter). I'm glad they gave up Sheffield, but I wish they would have to have given up more. This immediately makes them much better than they were a day ago, so that's not good news for the Red Sox.
 

jon abbey

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Very happy with this, I think. When NY was driving for the 2017 wild card and it was unclear who their opponent would be, the one potential opposing SP who scared me was James Paxton. Sheffield was heavily hyped and highly rated, but it's never easy to break in as a rookie SP on a team expecting to contend and in SEA he will get every chance, good luck to him.
 

terrynever

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When Sheffield learns to locate his pitches, he will be very good. Lefties take longer to develop. So it could be 2-3 years. Will Seattle’s patience last that long? Do they have good teachers? What can he learn from Felix, if anything?
Paxton has durability issues.
It’s like most deals involving pitchers. A lot can go wrong.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Hopefully this goes better than the Sonny Gray experiment. That said, I like Paxton and if he can stay healthy he could be a big-time difference maker for the Yankees.
 

crow216

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When Sheffield learns to locate his pitches, he will be very good. Lefties take longer to develop. So it could be 2-3 years. Will Seattle’s patience last that long? Do they have good teachers? What can he learn from Felix, if anything?
Paxton has durability issues.
It’s like most deals involving pitchers. A lot can go wrong.
Right. Before the Sox got Sale for the best prospect in baseball, there were concerns about his health and whether or not he was on the decline. Every trade for a starter comes with these risks. Find me the perfect pitcher with no question marks and I'll find you big foot.
 

jon abbey

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Fielding Independent Pitching, last 3 seasons, min. 400 IP

Chris Sale, 2.71
Clayton Kershaw, 2.72
Jacob deGrom, 2.87
James Paxton, 2.90
Max Scherzer, 2.93
Corey Kluber, 2.97
 

crow216

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I have to wonder where this leaves Clint Frazier. He has very little value to the Yankees. Could he be the centerpiece for another starting player or bullpen arm? Edwin Diaz?
 

jon abbey

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I have to wonder where this leaves Clint Frazier. He has very little value to the Yankees. Could he be the centerpiece for another starting player or bullpen arm? Edwin Diaz?
Diaz isn't available, I think Clint needs to rebuild value in AAA at the start of the season. NY has no OF depth in AAA right now after moving Gamel and Cave and McKinney in the last couple of seasons, they need to strengthen that area even without Clint.
 

chrisfont9

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When Sheffield learns to locate his pitches, he will be very good. Lefties take longer to develop. So it could be 2-3 years. Will Seattle’s patience last that long? Do they have good teachers? What can he learn from Felix, if anything?
There's a pretty clear change in direction for the Mariners from "anxiously contending" to "actually finally admitting that they need to rebuild". So I don't know why they would be rushing anyone.
 

jon abbey

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BA says that Swanson was going to be #11 in NY's list in their upcoming annual, and Thompson-Williams would have been in the low 20s, so there is some value there.
 

Devizier

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Seems like a good deal for both teams. Paxton is a gamble to be sure but it’s probably a better use of resources than trying this years FA crop.
 

jon abbey

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James Paxton: "I’m just honored to get a chance to be a Yankee and be a part of the great history and committment to winning there.''

James Paxton: "I couldn't be more excited about it. It's going to be a fantastic opportunity in New York, always expecting to win, the way I do. I'm looking forward to being a part of a fantastic team."
 

jon abbey

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Seems like a good deal for both teams. Paxton is a gamble to be sure but it’s probably a better use of resources than trying this years FA crop.
I think they still have to do that but now they just have to sign one guy, not two, and it gives them protection when PHI offers Corbin $2 billion.
 

terrynever

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There's a pretty clear change in direction for the Mariners from "anxiously contending" to "actually finally admitting that they need to rebuild". So I don't know why they would be rushing anyone.
Yes, Jeff Passan brought up this quandary for Seattle a couple weeks ago. Rebuild or try to compete. Hell, they won 89 games last season. But this deal indicates GM DiPoto has made his decision. Rebuild.
Now is a good time to pat Cashman on the back for letting Cano go and getting Gleyber for nothing. Saving about $25M at second base and 15 years in age. For similar offense and better defense.