X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

phrenile

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In which case they'll have a 25m hit on the tax for zero production, that isn't a good thing either. Maybe they aren't concerned about it now, but it's a huge issue down the road.
They might be telling themselves that "down the road" is a couple collective bargaining agreements after this one, so who knows how the luxury tax will even be structured by then.
 

DavidTai

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Just something about the "he had no choice" phrasing struck me. If he wants max dollars, clearly that is the choice to make. But saying he had no choice sounds like deflecting away from the fact that he did have a choice, and the richest contract is what he chose.
It isn't just that 100 million dollars. It's the -extra years- involved. If the Sox offered like 6 years for 180 million, they would actually have average more AAV, but the extra 5 years for 100 million more ... I don't know, I cannot picture Xander getting a 5 years 100 million contract at age 37.

Ultimately, that's not just max money, that's -extra years- of earning money that wasn't likely to be offered at age 37.

Can't fault Xander for taking it, and can't really fault the Padres for offering it if that's what it took to get him away from the Red Sox, but that's an insane contract to match, and there's no way I can picture the Sox wanting to carry 25 million a year for a Xander Bogaerts at age 37 to 41 without trading away someone else to take -that- contract.
 

ehaz

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Bogaerts is 1 and Correa is 2. If you're the Padres sitting on a seemingly limitless pile of cash... why?

5861958620
 

TapeAndPosts

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It isn't just that 100 million dollars. It's the -extra years- involved. If the Sox offered like 6 years for 180 million, they would actually have average more AAV, but the extra 5 years for 100 million more ... I don't know, I cannot picture Xander getting a 5 years 100 million contract at age 37.

Ultimately, that's not just max money, that's -extra years- of earning money that wasn't likely to be offered at age 37.

Can't fault Xander for taking it, and can't really fault the Padres for offering it if that's what it took to get him away from the Red Sox, but that's an insane contract to match, and there's no way I can picture the Sox wanting to carry 25 million a year for a Xander Bogaerts at age 37 to 41 without trading away someone else to take -that- contract.
Certainly can't fault Xander for taking it; I was just pushing back on the idea that it wasn't his choice to do so. Maybe just a semantic point on my end! It's always a choice.

Concerning the years, having the same money spread over 11 years seems more a favor to San Diego than to him. If he got higher AAV, fewer years, he'd get the same money and either be able to retire at 38, or (in the event he was still playing well) get another contract. Now he's got to stick around trying to play until he's 41 to get it all, even if he gets some debilitating injury at age 36.
 

Rice4HOF

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I'm willing to wager that this will be a free agent signing San Diego will come to regret.
Almost all teams come to regret their long term free agent signings. Sometimes you overpay, but win a championship and that mitigates the rest of the dead weight contract, but the fact that we can all struggle to count on one hand the number of "good" long term free agent signings but can rhyme off tons of bad ones is telling.
 

chawson

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Take it with a grain of salt since he's a small sample size, but here are Xander's collective career slash lines in NL West ballparks:

SDP (27 PA) .200 / .407 / .250
SFG (13 PA) .154 / .154 / .154
LAD (18 PA) .294 / .278 / .294
COL (11 PA) .556 / .636 / 1.778
ARI (13 PA) .182/ .308/ .182
NL West (82 PA): .257 / .354 / .429

He has raked in Colorado, but not so much anywhere else. He's getting older, and his power, exit velocities and hard hit % are all trending downward. And his numbers last year were goosed by a BABIP that was well above his historical norms.

I'm willing to wager that this will be a free agent signing San Diego will come to regret.
Xander's expected wOBA last year was .323, same as Gio Urshela's.

I'll always root for the guy but away from Fenway he's a .340-350 wOBA hitter. This deal could be a lot like giving $280 million to Ty France.
 

ponch73

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Almost all teams come to regret their long term free agent signings. Sometimes you overpay, but win a championship and that mitigates the rest of the dead weight contract, but the fact that we can all struggle to count on one hand the number of "good" long term free agent signings but can rhyme off tons of bad ones is telling.
I think what may set this signing apart is how quickly the Padres come to regret the contract.
 

uncannymanny

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Concerning the years, having the same money spread over 11 years seems more a favor to San Diego than to him. If he got higher AAV, fewer years, he'd get the same money and either be able to retire at 38, or (in the event he was still playing well) get another contract. Now he's got to stick around trying to play until he's 41 to get it all, even if he gets some debilitating injury at age 36.
The 11 years to 41 makes it seem like SD was bidding, in years, against Bogaerts preferring to stay in Boston.
 

EvilEmpire

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Bogaerts is 1 and Correa is 2. If you're the Padres sitting on a seemingly limitless pile of cash... why?
Maybe Correa just wants a lot more money, but I suspect the answer is that the Padres were worried about offering a really long contract to a guy with back problems.
 

Scoops Bolling

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I think what may set this signing apart is how quickly the Padres come to regret the contract.
They went through the Eric Hosmer experience, so it's something the Padres know well.

I just don't understand why a team that's willing to give this contract doesn't go after Correa instead of Bogaerts.
 

TapeAndPosts

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The 11 years to 41 makes it seem like SD was bidding, in years, against Bogaerts preferring to stay in Boston.
I would guess they were bidding in money against Bogaerts preferring to stay in Boston, and the way they preferred to give him that money was in extra years rather than higher AAV.
 

ponch73

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Xander's expected wOBA last year was .323, same as Gio Urshela's.

I'll always root for the guy but away from Fenway he's a .340-350 wOBA hitter. This deal could be a lot like giving $280 million to Ty France.
That's a beautiful comp if for no other reason than Ty France being drafted by the Padres!

In other news ...

John Heyman: "Red Sox are in heavy-breathing phone calls with ascendant infielder Ty France"
 

TimScribble

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This makes me think the Sox offer was like 7/175 and the Padres basically upped it $100M.
 

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1600725769856040961

Almost a billion dollars worth of contracts offered by SD just during the winter meetings
The #Padres, who offered $342 million for Trea Turner, and $400 million for Aaron Judge, finally gets someone to take their money.
Needless to say, Padres chairman Peter Seidler and GM AJ. Preller have come every agent's best friend.
They still plan to sign more free agents.
 

E5 Yaz

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while it stinks to lose a guy like X, this will end up being the right decision. I’m fine with it.
I mean, if we had a poll over whether we'd approve of the Sox offering that contract, it might be 99% against
 

chrisfont9

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Should the Sox offer Devers what Judge got? Would Devers take it?
Seems like the message is that nobody who is a year away from free agency should sign anything. In which case the Sox should explore the trade market, because if the price tag is going to be insane, is paying that for Raffy really better than the prospect/MLB-ready return you could get from a team that hasn't figured out that there's no way in hell Raffy is signing an early extension?
 

NorthwestSoxGuy

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Oh my goodness. I almost can't believe it.

*sigh*, oh well, thanks so much for your contributions Xander. You were a terrific Sox player!

Unfortunately, this is a massive blow for the Red Sox :(
 

TapeAndPosts

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All right gang, here's my hot take before bed. I don't think the Sox screwed this up at any stage. They got Xander's pre-arb years, and they signed him to a nice extension and got three more years with him. Then he opted out and got bonkers money for his thirties. It's not clear any extension a year or so ago would have enticed him to not opt out, at least not any extension that wasn't also bonkers.

There's a tendency around here to give the front office too much agency, like they can do whatever they want if only they try hard enough. But the team can't control players, or control other teams, and they just have to make the best choices with the hands they are dealt. I think they did that here. So long Xander, thanks for everything, interested to see what's next for this team.
 

Pmoose82

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Seems like the message is that nobody who is a year away from free agency should sign anything. In which case the Sox should explore the trade market, because if the price tag is going to be insane, is paying that for Raffy really better than the prospect/MLB-ready return you could get from a team that hasn't figured out that there's no way in hell Raffy is signing an early extension?
Except the team they trade Devers to might offer a market value extension, instead of the half-hearted offers that the Sox tend to give.
 

johnlos

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You offer him the Semien deal last offseason and I'm like 90% sure he would've signed. Now this.
What evidence do you have for this? As many others have noted once Boras clients are 1-2 years from FA they tend to go on the open market
 

chrisfont9

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All right gang, here's my hot take before bed. I don't think the Sox screwed this up at any stage. They got Xander's pre-arb years, and they signed him to a nice extension and got three more years with him. Then he opted out and got bonkers money for his thirties. It's not clear any extension a year or so ago would have enticed him to not opt out, at least not any extension that wasn't also bonkers.

There's a tendency around here to give the front office too much agency, like they can do whatever they want if only they try hard enough. But the team can't control players, or control other teams, and they just have to make the best choices with the hands they are dealt. I think they did that here. So long Xander, thanks for everything, interested to see what's next for this team.
Not bad. They could have thrown crazy money at him at some point, but it never quite made sense (and still doesn't). Look, we need the Sox to replace his production. Baseball is flooded with talent, it isn't that hard. What is hard is a sort of personal feeling like he was our guy, but the way baseball is set up, that almost never lasts for any team. So, once again, we just need to turn the page and hope for a team that plays winning baseball, and it'll be OK. Chances are the next guy won't be an unlovable psychopath, so if he can hit and field, it'll be OK. If Mayer is what he projects to be, then in two years it'll really be OK. And if not, then there will be someone else. I doubt they will just be irrelevant. They have had a few fallow years in this incredible run and they don't last long.
 

curly2

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Boras clients are like any other agents' clients. The choice is theirs, not the agents.

Boras didn't want Jared Weaver to sign back in the day, but Weaver overruled him. Even Xander signed once already before he needed to. Maybe X was determined to go to free agency this time, maybe he would have signed an actual deal. 4/90 was never a serious offer.
 

Pmoose82

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What evidence do you have for this? As many others have noted once Boras clients are 1-2 years from FA they tend to go on the open market
Bogaerts already passed up going on the open market once, which seems like a relevant data point.
 

uncannymanny

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I would guess they were bidding in money against Bogaerts preferring to stay in Boston, and the way they preferred to give him that money was in extra years rather than higher AAV.
Yes, it suggests the only way the Padres could make the total value work was more years.
 

E5 Yaz

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Except the team they trade Devers to might offer a market value extension, instead of the half-hearted offers that the Sox tend to give.
The painful thing is that, if they were to decide to trade Devers, two teams with the money to sign Devers -- and a hole at 3B -- are the Yankees and Dodgers ... which would make them impossible trade partners for the Sox
 

ehaz

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And the Extension Fairy will come down from wherever and whisper in his ear that he should just not bother hitting free agency in a few months. That's a plan, I guess.
If Steve Cohen offers you $400M would you really take the risk of tearing an ACL or something in your walk year?